Efficiency and Multivariate Statistics for the Jets through Week 6 and Why That Matters

[RutgersJetFan]

Week 6 is an important threshold for a number of reasons, but in the world of math it matters because for Football Outsiders' statistics of DVOA and DYAR, week 6 tends to be the threshold for what you have for the season, meaning it’s a good enough sample size to start talking about things. Football Outsiders did a study on this a while back and in terms of when you can really start relying on the predictability and evaluative reliability of their numbers, it’s week 6. So, what you have after week 6, that’s around what you have for the rest of the year assuming all things remain constant (i.e. absent catastrophic injuries, QB changes, cheating/drug/abuse scandals…etc).

What does this mean for the Jets? Good things, surprisingly. The numbers right now say the Jets fielded a pretty average football team for this year. And that’s a good thing for 2 reasons. First, the majority of the league is average now; second, the numbers favor long term success for Darnold.

Darnold:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb

Having a perfectly fine and normal rookie year for quarterbacks who usually turn out to be good in the long run. It’s worth noting that both DVOA and DYAR had Geno and Sanchez pegged very early on. I tend to favor FO’s numbers most when it comes to quarterbacks and it’s awesome to see Darnold in the middle of the pack. However what is most impressive to me is his numbers viewed in context with the rest of the offense, (I'll get to that shortly).

Team Efficiency

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff

Right in the middle of the pack. According to the numbers, this is because of the pass defense and special teams, which according to FO’s numbers have been the backbone of the team.

Offense

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamoff

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/te

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/wr

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol

It’s bad, but the silver lining here is that the numbers say it hasn’t been on Darnold, and for me that’s really all that matters. It's on the offensive line (ranked 28th in run blocking and 17th in pass protection), and WR’s (the Jets have no receivers or tight ends in the top 50 of their positions). The only consistently impactful weapon on the entire offense has been Crowelll, which FO has 12th in DYAR and 11th in DVOA.

Defense

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef

Very good numbers. The pass defense has been the biggest strength of the team and per the numbers are the reason they’re sitting at .500 with 10 games to go. FO has the pass defense ranked 6th in the league and the rush defense as 16th. However, viewing them strictly in terms of rankings in this specific category can bias things a little bit, because is clearly a large drop-off after Seattle, ranked 4th, compared to us. The Jets have a very good, not great, pass defense this year. And while 16th does not sound impressive for the run defense, coming from someone that follows these numbers closely they have greatly improved over the last 2-3 weeks.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/dl

The DL has been wholly average, 17th against the run and 16th against the pass, so it’s safe to assume that the strength of the unit has been the linebackers and the secondary. From the ol' eye test when watching the games, this does seem to be the case.

Special teams

FO has had our ST’s quite high all year. Kickoff returns have not been great, but the Jets have the best punt return unit in the league, and the conventional numbers back this up too. The kicking and punt teams have been top 5 as well. It’s crazy to say it but in terms of value, Lachlan Edwards really does seem to be Macaggnan’s best find.

All in all it looks like the Jets put together a pleasantly average football team this year. Clearly the investments going forward need to be made on the offensive side in WR and OL, something that anybody that watches the games already knew, but it’s nice have some math to support it and more importantly to see that Darnold has been fighting like hell, (and successfully in many regards), to make up for it. It’s nuts to say it but with how watered down the league is, what the numbers say, and the improvement of Darnold in weeks 4-6 from week 1-3, the Jets might actually be able to make a playoff push this year.

[Creepy Lurker]

I’ve been waiting for something like this all year. Thanks. 

[#27TheDominator]

Math

[jpoppy717]

Good post, I'm a big fan of using Football Outsiders stats for a statistical look at how the team is performing.

My one quibble is I don't think it works to separate out Darnold's performance from the passing game as a whole, or the WRs.  A good QB elevates play of offense, and can't really separate who is playing well and who isn't based on these stats.  Unlike Pro Football Focus, Football Outsiders isn't pretending to be able to assign blame and credit for each player on each play, so can't say based on DVOA whether it's supporting cast or Darnold that's holding down the offense.

[RutgersJetFan]

2 minutes ago, jpoppy717 said:

Good post, I'm a big fan of using Football Outsiders stats for a statistical look at how the team is performing.

My one quibble is I don't think it works to separate out Darnold's performance from the passing game as a whole, or the WRs.  A good QB elevates play of offense, and can't really separate who is playing well and who isn't based on these stats.  Unlike Pro Football Focus, Football Outsiders isn't pretending to be able to assign blame and credit for each player on each play, so can't say based on DVOA whether it's supporting cast or Darnold that's holding down the offense.

For sure. I think anyone that follows FO consistently enough notices the small changes that happen with QB DYAR that magically seem to happen when a team's WR's start creeping up the rankings. Such is the world of statistics. And I don't think any statistician would ever argue that any model is flawless, nor that it should be used as anything more than an evaluative tool. These are not be all/end all conclusive sets, which is where I think a lot of people go wrong in dismissing them. Reality is FO gets far more right than they do wrong.

[Jets Voice of Reason]

I think the analysis matches up pretty well with what we are seeing in general. The last two games certainly boosted our rankings, but i think we have certain strengths (generating turnovers, controlling time of possession, managing field position) that we are leveraging into the type of games we want to play. Really, we are finally out of the launching pad of “find a qb” and are on to the exciting step of “find blue chip talent”. 

The AFC in general has so many average teams that we actually have a shot at playoffs if we can survive the next few weeks and show up for our divisional games later on. 

 

[Jets Voice of Reason]

Just now, RutgersJetFan said:

For sure. I think anyone that follows FO consistently enough notices the small changes that happen with QB DYAR that magically seem to happen when a team's WR's start creeping up the rankings. Such is the world of statistics. And I don't think any statistician would ever argue that any model is flawless, nor that it should be used as anything more than an evaluative tool. These are not be all/end all conclusive sets, which is where I think a lot of people go wrong in dismissing them. Reality is FO gets far more right than they do wrong.

Yep, predictive analysis, not a crystal ball. It also is very nice to have a more objective description that takes emotion and bias out of analysis. The Darnold numbers are definitely what is very promising. Obviously, Darnold has played well recently, but like you were saying about Geno and Sanchez, we can start feeling hopeful about his future since we have seen guys fail in the model before

[HawkeyeJet]

Seriously though, thanks for posting.  I absolutely love this stuff.  Baseball analytics is a particular hobby of mine.

[The Crusher]

49 minutes ago, RutgersJetFan said:

Week 6 is an important threshold for a number of reasons, but in the world of math it matters because for Football Outsiders' statistics of DVOA and DYAR, week 6 tends to be the threshold for what you have for the season, meaning it’s a good enough sample size to start talking about things. Football Outsiders did a study on this a while back and in terms of when you can really start relying on the predictability and evaluative reliability of their numbers, it’s week 6. So, what you have after week 6, that’s around what you have for the rest of the year assuming all things remain constant (i.e. absent catastrophic injuries, QB changes, cheating/drug/abuse scandals…etc).

What does this mean for the Jets? Good things, surprisingly. The numbers right now say the Jets fielded a pretty average football team for this year. And that’s a good thing for 2 reasons. First, the majority of the league is average now; second, the numbers favor long term success for Darnold.

Darnold:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb

Having a perfectly fine and normal rookie year for quarterbacks who usually turn out to be good in the long run. It’s worth noting that both DVOA and DYAR had Geno and Sanchez pegged very early on. I tend to favor FO’s numbers most when it comes to quarterbacks and it’s awesome to see Darnold in the middle of the pack. However what is most impressive to me is his numbers viewed in context with the rest of the offense, (I'll get to that shortly).

Team Efficiency

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff

Right in the middle of the pack. According to the numbers, this is because of the pass defense and special teams, which according to FO’s numbers have been the backbone of the team.

Offense

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamoff

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/te

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/wr

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol

It’s bad, but the silver lining here is that the numbers say it hasn’t been on Darnold, and for me that’s really all that matters. It's on the offensive line (ranked 28th in run blocking and 17th in pass protection), and WR’s (the Jets have no receivers or tight ends in the top 50 of their positions). The only consistently impactful weapon on the entire offense has been Crowelll, which FO has 12th in DYAR and 11th in DVOA.

Defense

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef

Very good numbers. The pass defense has been the biggest strength of the team and per the numbers are the reason they’re sitting at .500 with 10 games to go. FO has the pass defense ranked 6th in the league and the rush defense as 16th. However, viewing them strictly in terms of rankings in this specific category can bias things a little bit, because is clearly a large drop-off after Seattle, ranked 4th, compared to us. The Jets have a very good, not great, pass defense this year. And while 16th does not sound impressive for the run defense, coming from someone that follows these numbers closely they have greatly improved over the last 2-3 weeks.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/dl

The DL has been wholly average, 17th against the run and 16th against the pass, so it’s safe to assume that the strength of the unit has been the linebackers and the secondary. From the ol' eye test when watching the games, this does seem to be the case.

Special teams

FO has had our ST’s quite high all year. Kickoff returns have not been great, but the Jets have the best punt return unit in the league, and the conventional numbers back this up too. The kicking and punt teams have been top 5 as well. It’s crazy to say it but in terms of value, Lachlan Edwards really does seem to be Macaggnan’s best find.

All in all it looks like the Jets put together a pleasantly average football team this year. Clearly the investments going forward need to be made on the offensive side in WR and OL, something that anybody that watches the games already knew, but it’s nice have some math to support it and more importantly to see that Darnold has been fighting like hell, (and successfully in many regards), to make up for it. It’s nuts to say it but with how watered down the league is, what the numbers say, and the improvement of Darnold in weeks 4-6 from week 1-3, the Jets might actually be able to make a playoff push this year.

Man, I got the weirdest boner right now!

[kdels62]

While the Jets don’t have WRs in the top 50, they do have 3 in the top 70 and with a few more catches Pryor would be in the top 30. Meaning that even if you only gave each team 3 receivers our 4 top guys would all be assigned to a team. Also I’m curious to see how Darnold, Anderson, Kearse and Pryor are trending in DVOA.

[BroadwayRay]

In light of how FO puts the spotlight on week 6, it once again leads me to hearken back to Mark Sanchez's game 6 as a rookie, when he threw five interceptions. We should have dumped him right then and there rather than waste four years pretending he was the "Sanchize."

But that's bilge water under the bridge, thank goodness.

Also, Mayfield is a lot lower on the DYAR ranking than I would have expected. I wonder why.

[dbatesman]

Thanks for putting all this together. The pass defense has been a revelation. I had zero expectations there, and have been very pleasantly surprised.

[slats]

20 minutes ago, The Crusher said:

Man, I got the weirdest boner right now!

Nerd boners are weird. 

I'm excited about Darnold. They seemed to have the shackles on him against the Browns, and now they seem to be completely gone with positive results. All I wanted was for them to let Darnold play -for better or worse- and right now it looks to be for the better. The wins are exciting and you can see Sam's confidence building week to week. 

I'm sure @RutgersJetFan is right that six games generally sets the mark, but in the case of Darnold and the Jets, I really feel like the Jets numbers actually should improve. Crazy feeling. 

[UntouchableCrew]

15 minutes ago, BroadwayRay said:

 

Also, Mayfield is a lot lower on the DYAR ranking than I would have expected. I wonder why.

His conventional numbers are pretty bad, too.

He was so hyped up after beating the Jets very few people have noticed that he's quietly been bad in several games since then. Darnold has been superior in every statistical category.

[batmans a scientist]

39 minutes ago, HawkeyeJet said:

Seriously though, thanks for posting.  I absolutely love this stuff.  Baseball analytics is a particular hobby of mine.

THAT'S A RIGHT TRIANGLE, YOU IDIOT!

[thshadow]

1 hour ago, RutgersJetFan said:

It’s worth noting that both DVOA and DYAR had Geno and Sanchez pegged very early on.

By that, do you mean that it correctly predicted they would stink?  That seems surprising to me, given their early success...

 

[32EBoozer]

2 hours ago, #27TheDominator said:

#Math

fixed!

[32EBoozer]

2 hours ago, The Crusher said:

Man, I got the weirdest boner right now!

And the Giants and Browns office are popping Viagra in the beers of their fans, to prevent a revolt!!

 

I do feel that Mayfield will be a top 20 QB moving forward.... I have Darnold pegged as a top 5-10

[Losmeister]

3 hours ago, RutgersJetFan said:

looks like the Jets put together a pleasantly average footbal

@^^#!&#%&#*( !! #P)#$)P  !#)(!!#   #)$!#!  !!!

[Larz]

So Math tells us the 3-3 team is average

Whew!

Damn predictive text snuck Mary in on me lol

[RutgersJetFan]

3 hours ago, dbatesman said:

Thanks for putting all this together. The pass defense has been a revelation. I had zero expectations there, and have been very pleasantly surprised.

I wish that FO broke things down for individual defenders but there is only so much time in the day. Sometimes what I do, (and this is inexact), is look at this stuff in conjunction with PFF and try to guess a little. When you look at FO's numbers on our pass defense and PFF, it looks like Lee, Claiborne, and Adams are the reason behind everything. And for me that is incredibly sad because I have fully enjoyed piling on those guys for a couple years now.

[RutgersJetFan]

3 hours ago, thshadow said:

By that, do you mean that it correctly predicted they would stink?  That seems surprising to me, given their early success...

 

Somewhat, but more in an evaluative sense than a predictive sense. FO's models attempt to isolate the impact that a player (or unit) has on his (their) own, and while they don't keep week-to-week archives from past years, I do remember following their numbers during their first years as a starter and they were not good. The problem was the team was winning, so people assumed that the quarterback play couldn't possibly have been as bad as the numbers showed given that the Jets were putting up W's. However the nice thing about a good model is things tend to even out over time, and for Geno and Sanchez they eventually did.

The good news, at least for me personally, is that Darnold's early returns in the same models are not only better in comparison, but just simply promising. Very promising. Quarterbacks that turn out to be good in the long run tend to fall in line with where he currently is as a rookie.

[Jetsfan80]

5 hours ago, RutgersJetFan said:

Week 6 is an important threshold for a number of reasons, but in the world of math it matters because for Football Outsiders' statistics of DVOA and DYAR, week 6 tends to be the threshold for what you have for the season, meaning it’s a good enough sample size to start talking about things. Football Outsiders did a study on this a while back and in terms of when you can really start relying on the predictability and evaluative reliability of their numbers, it’s week 6. So, what you have after week 6, that’s around what you have for the rest of the year assuming all things remain constant (i.e. absent catastrophic injuries, QB changes, cheating/drug/abuse scandals…etc).

What does this mean for the Jets? Good things, surprisingly. The numbers right now say the Jets fielded a pretty average football team for this year. And that’s a good thing for 2 reasons. First, the majority of the league is average now; second, the numbers favor long term success for Darnold.

Darnold:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb

Having a perfectly fine and normal rookie year for quarterbacks who usually turn out to be good in the long run. It’s worth noting that both DVOA and DYAR had Geno and Sanchez pegged very early on. I tend to favor FO’s numbers most when it comes to quarterbacks and it’s awesome to see Darnold in the middle of the pack. However what is most impressive to me is his numbers viewed in context with the rest of the offense, (I'll get to that shortly). 

Team Efficiency

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff

Right in the middle of the pack. According to the numbers, this is because of the pass defense and special teams, which according to FO’s numbers have been the backbone of the team.

Offense

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamoff

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/te

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/wr

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol

It’s bad, but the silver lining here is that the numbers say it hasn’t been on Darnold, and for me that’s really all that matters. It's on the offensive line (ranked 28th in run blocking and 17th in pass protection), and WR’s (the Jets have no receivers or tight ends in the top 50 of their positions). The only consistently impactful weapon on the entire offense has been Crowelll, which FO has 12th in DYAR and 11th in DVOA.

Defense

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef

Very good numbers. The pass defense has been the biggest strength of the team and per the numbers are the reason they’re sitting at .500 with 10 games to go. FO has the pass defense ranked 6th in the league and the rush defense as 16th. However, viewing them strictly in terms of rankings in this specific category can bias things a little bit, because is clearly a large drop-off after Seattle, ranked 4th, compared to us. The Jets have a very good, not great, pass defense this year. And while 16th does not sound impressive for the run defense, coming from someone that follows these numbers closely they have greatly improved over the last 2-3 weeks.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/dl

The DL has been wholly average, 17th against the run and 16th against the pass, so it’s safe to assume that the strength of the unit has been the linebackers and the secondary. From the ol' eye test when watching the games, this does seem to be the case.

Special teams

FO has had our ST’s quite high all year. Kickoff returns have not been great, but the Jets have the best punt return unit in the league, and the conventional numbers back this up too. The kicking and punt teams have been top 5 as well. It’s crazy to say it but in terms of value, Lachlan Edwards really does seem to be Macaggnan’s best find.

All in all it looks like the Jets put together a pleasantly average football team this year. Clearly the investments going forward need to be made on the offensive side in WR and OL, something that anybody that watches the games already knew, but it’s nice have some math to support it and more importantly to see that Darnold has been fighting like hell, (and successfully in many regards), to make up for it. It’s nuts to say it but with how watered down the league is, what the numbers say, and the improvement of Darnold in weeks 4-6 from week 1-3, the Jets might actually be able to make a playoff push this year. 

 

Gay

[Jetsfan80]

3 hours ago, thshadow said:

By that, do you mean that it correctly predicted they would stink?  That seems surprising to me, given their early success...

 

The Jets in 2009 were good.  Mark Sanchez in 2009 was not. 

Remember that Bills game where we ran for 200+ yards on the ground but still lost because Sanchez threw 5 picks?  Yeah. 

[RutgersJetFan]

14 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

The Jets in 2009 were good.  Mark Sanchez in 2009 was not. 

Remember that Bills game where we ran for 200+ yards on the ground but still lost because Sanchez threw 5 picks?  Yeah. 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef2009

For comparison's sake, those are better defensive numbers than the 2000 Ravens and the 2002 Bucs.

I think the only defenses higher are Seattle in 2013 and the '08 Steelers, and neither are by a large margin. We're talking a defense that scored just as good if not higher than other defenses that carried a team to a championship almost every time. When you go strictly by the numbers, in hindsight it's just nuts that the Jets couldn't get a ring out of '09 or '10.

[#27TheDominator]

7 minutes ago, RutgersJetFan said:

However the nice thing about a good model is things tend to even out over time, and for Geno and Sanchez they eventually did.

I don't remember that being a nice thing at all. 

[RutgersJetFan]

5 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

I don't remember that being a nice thing at all. 

For those of us who would rather be right on the internet rather than have the Jets win, it was very nice.

[CTM]

4 hours ago, slats said:

Nerd boners are weird. 

I'm excited about Darnold. They seemed to have the shackles on him against the Browns, and now they seem to be completely gone with positive results. All I wanted was for them to let Darnold play -for better or worse- and right now it looks to be for the better. The wins are exciting and you can see Sam's confidence building week to week. 

I'm sure @RutgersJetFan is right that six games generally sets the mark, but in the case of Darnold and the Jets, I really feel like the Jets numbers actually should improve. Crazy feeling. 

I think we're going to see a lot more variance particularly with Darnold who will bring up and down the entire team. His overall Dyar is roughly 85, but he generated about 125 last week. Meaning he was -40 a week ago (further some QB's have had byes). That's a large jump week over week, so measuring after a high point is potentially misleading (jets are #25 in terms of consistancy on offense) . Theoretically he should continue to improve which should offset.

I'm was thinking this week would be a good test but was surprised to see that Minny's D is actually worse than Indys.

Also.. the Jets are actually a better team, at home and getting 3 points. A very good bet this week, but the jets have trained me to expect an egg to be laid in this spot 

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/quick-reads/2018/week-6-quick-reads

[Integrity28]

Longest post ever just to say our .500 team is probably a .500 team.

[GREENBEAN]

I could barely get through the title of this thread


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

[GreenFish]

I’ve been following the Jets rankings each week. We’ve consistently had a defense ranked in the top 10 as measured by DVOA. We are second in the league in takeaways which has helped. But turnovers are not sustainable. I also don’t see our pass rush continuing to play at the same level. I personally think we will regress on defense as the year goes on. This is a slightly above average defense. But it’s not a top 10 unit.

 

Our offense has been below average but trending north. I’m expecting the offense to get better as Darnold improves.

[jpoppy717]

13 hours ago, GreenFish said:

I’ve been following the Jets rankings each week. We’ve consistently had a defense ranked in the top 10 as measured by DVOA. We are second in the league in takeaways which has helped. But turnovers are not sustainable. I also don’t see our pass rush continuing to play at the same level. I personally think we will regress on defense as the year goes on. This is a slightly above average defense. But it’s not a top 10 unit.

 

Our offense has been below average but trending north. I’m expecting the offense to get better as Darnold improves.

Our defense doesn't look so good when you watch the games.

But almost no one else's defense looks good either in the league, outside of a couple teams.  The game has become all about offense, and it looks like it's nearly impossible to have a type of defense that consistently prevents teams from moving the ball.  Defense is becoming more about turnovers, 3rd down, and red zone.  

*Not my original thought - see 

which I agree with to a large extent.   

[slats]

1 hour ago, jpoppy717 said:

Our defense doesn't look so good when you watch the games.

But almost no one else's defense looks good either in the league, outside of a couple teams.  The game has become all about offense, and it looks like it's nearly impossible to have a type of defense that consistently prevents teams from moving the ball.  Defense is becoming more about turnovers, 3rd down, and red zone.  

*Not my original thought - see 

which I agree with to a large extent.   

The best defense is a good offense. Keep the other offense off the field, and be able to score points on 10-minute drives or 70+ yard plays.

If your offense is a powerhouse, then you force the opposing offense to have to keep up. Then you build a defense designed to get to the QB with a secondary that can catch. It's not rocket surgery. 

[jetstream23]

I’m afraid of the next update in this thread. 

[Long Island Leprechaun]

I feel much better now about being completely trashed by the 2-7 Bills. So we're an average team that loses to terrible teams. But FO says we're okay. Thanks!