Jets pass on both Thomas, Becton to take WR Jeudy in Todd McShay's post-FA Mock Draft

[RobR]

2 minutes ago, Paradis said:

You didn't do my post justice by cropping it down. I went out of my way to say that Tackle is still in the conversation, EVEN if WR1 is available... 

and the same list above can be used with OTs... Off the top of my head the only tackle recently drafted early whos team is doing well is the guy with the Titans whos name eludes me at the moment. 

Lewan

[K_O_Brien]

1 minute ago, Paradis said:

You didn't do my post justice by cropping it down. I went out of my way to say that Tackle is still in the conversation, EVEN if WR1 is available... 

and the same list above can be used with OTs... Off the top of my head the only tackle recently drafted early whos team is doing well is the guy with the Titans whos name eludes me at the moment. 

I agreed with the rest of your post, that is why I left it out. ?

Jeudy is in the conversation. 100%. I just think with positional value that if you're Joe Douglas, you have to think Jeudy is way, way better at being a WR than the Wirfs/Wills/Becton/Thomas are at being a tackle, to justify picking Jeudy at 11. 

You're right about the lack of top tackles that have been drafted recently, but if anything that only increases the stakes in finding the right one this year. Ultimately it's much harder to find top tier left tackles than top tier wide receivers. You can find excellent receivers most years in rounds 2 and 3, and definitely so in 2020. 

[Greenseed4]

1 hour ago, K_O_Brien said:

Maybe so, but Jeudy may need to be significantly better at being a WR than Wirfs/Wills/Becton/Thomas are at being Tackle. 

Tackles are more important than having a stud receiver. Top ten wide receivers last year by yardage, and their team record

Thomas 13-3

Jones  7-9

Godwin  7-9

Parker  5-11

Allen  5-11 

Golladay  3-12-1

Cooper  8-8

Moore  5-11

Landry  6-10

Hopkins  10-6

Two top ten receivers in teams with a winning record.

I love Jeudy. Wouldn't hate the pick if it happens, but if a top tackle is there at 11, I don't see Douglas looking to take a receiver. 

 

To really make this point you should also do team record of teams with top-10 OTs. 

[K_O_Brien]

2 minutes ago, Greenseed4 said:

To really make this point you should also do team record of teams with top-10 OTs. 

True, but it's harder to evaluate individual play of a left tackle. PFF grades maybe? 

Top ten o-lines as a unit...by PFF

Eagles, Ravens, Saints, Packers, Titans, Patriots playoffs

Colts, Cowboys, Bucs, Steelers missed playoffs. 

So still not a slam dunk that a top ten o-line will get up into the playoffs. But of the teams that missed, the Colts and the Steelers were down to back-up QBs and the Steelers till nearly made it in with Bucky Hodges. The Bucs had Winston throwing 30 picks so expect their record to change now with Brady. And the Cowboys.... who should think twice about paying Prescott if he can't get it done behind that line. 

It's kind of hard not to make the play offs with a top ten o-line. The Titans are the poster boy for that. Invest two first round picks in Lewan and Conklin, and you can make it to the AFC Championship game with Ryan Tannehill. 

 

 

 

[Greenseed4]

Top-10 OTs thru week-15 (per pff)
(I also included draft position)

1. RT, Lane Johnson #4(1) 

2. RT, Ryan Ramczyk #32(1) 

3. RT, La’El Collins undrafted 

4. LT, Ronnie Stanley #6(1) 

5. LT, Jason Peters undrafted 

6. RT, Mitchell Schwartz #37(2) 

7. LT, Anthony Costonzo #22(1) 

8. LT, Terron Armstead #75(3) 

9. RT, Brian Buluga #23(1) 

10. LT, Taylor Decker #16(1) 

 

[Greenseed4]

8 minutes ago, K_O_Brien said:

True, but it's harder to evaluate individual play of a left tackle. PFF grades maybe? 

Top ten o-lines as a unit...by PFF

Eagles, Ravens, Saints, Packers, Titans, Patriots playoffs

Colts, Cowboys, Bucs, Steelers missed playoffs. 

So still not a slam dunk that a top ten o-line will get up into the playoffs. But of the teams that missed, the Colts and the Steelers were down to back-up QBs and the Steelers till nearly made it in with Bucky Hodges. The Bucs had Winston throwing 30 picks so expect their record to change now with Brady. And the Cowboys.... who should think twice about paying Prescott if he can't get it done behind that line. 

It's kind of hard not to make the play offs with a top ten o-line. The Titans are the poster boy for that. Invest two first round picks in Lewan and Conklin, and you can make it to the AFC Championship game with Ryan Tannehill. 

 

 

 

I did it above.

After I did this I realized that teams playing from behind will air it out more and give WRs inflated yardage, so this whole exercise is flawed. 

[Raideraholic]

12 hours ago, T0mShane said:

Who’s the elite WR on the Chiefs?

Tyreek Hill is very elite.   When healthy might be one of the most dangerous weapons in the game today.

 

[Paradis]

34 minutes ago, K_O_Brien said:

 

Jeudy is in the conversation. 100%. I just think with positional value that if you're Joe Douglas, you have to think Jeudy is way, way better at being a WR than the Wirfs/Wills/Becton/Thomas are at being a tackle, to justify picking Jeudy at 11. 

I agree with the general philosophy here; if JD has a high grade/believes in a Thomas, or whomever - and they're there - that should be the call... It all starts up front... In addition the drop off after 50 for OTs is much more significant this year, than it is w/ WRs

The way the draft is falling though - JD may wind up with a situation where he's faced with a WR with a stellar grade, but the OTs left are more red chip than blue chip... What do you do then?... I wouldn't want to be faced with that choice.... would likely be decided by how confident I am in those tier 2 OTs.

[Augustiniak]

1 minute ago, Paradis said:

I agree with the general philosophy here; if JD has a high grade/believes in a Thomas, or whomever - and they're there - that should be the call... It all starts up front... In addition the drop off after 50 for OTs is much more significant this year, than it is w/ WRs

The way the draft is falling though - JD may wind up with a situation where he's faced with a WR with a stellar grade, but the OTs left are more red chip than blue chip... What do you do then?... I wouldn't want to be faced with that choice.... would likely be decided by how confident I am in those tier 2 OTs.

I think this will happen.  This could be the trade back scenario where he targets josh jones or Jefferson or Mims.  

[T0mShane]

17 minutes ago, Raideraholic said:

Tyreek Hill is very elite.   When healthy might be one of the most dangerous weapons in the game today.

 

He’s not on that Zay Jones level, though amirite

[RobR]

23 minutes ago, Greenseed4 said:

Top-10 OTs thru week-15 (per pff)
(I also included draft position)

1. RT, Lane Johnson #4(1) 

2. RT, Ryan Ramczyk #32(1) 

3. RT, La’El Collins undrafted 

4. LT, Ronnie Stanley #6(1) 

5. LT, Jason Peters undrafted 

6. RT, Mitchell Schwartz #37(2) 

7. LT, Anthony Costonzo #22(1) 

8. LT, Terron Armstead #75(3) 

9. RT, Brian Buluga #23(1) 

10. LT, Taylor Decker #16(1) 

 

You need to put an asterisk next to La'el Collins. Probably would have went first round if they didn't think he was a murderer at the time.

[GREENBEAN]

21 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

n Round 2 he has the Jets taking DE Marlon Davidson of Auburn.  At that point the "big four" OTs are gone as are Austin Jackson and Josh Jones.  The Jets pass on OTs Lucas Niang, Prince Wanogho, Isaiah Wilson at #48 in McShay's mock.  The also leave CB Jaylon Johnson and Edge rusher Josh Uche on the board.

Weak dude.  I can totally understand the justification for Taking Jeudy at #11 but following that pick a DL would be a travesty. I would take every single one of the guys you mentioned, other than Niang, over Davidson. Any DL  really.

Guys like Bryce Hall at CB, Hennessee, Harris C/G, Kindley G, Mims/Shenault WR, Peart, Wilson and Wanogho at T, Edwards-Hellaire/Dillon RB and so many others should be sitting right there. Every one of them would make more sense when comparing them to Marlon Davidson. 

[GREENBEAN]

12 hours ago, bla bla bla said:

I have a guy who says if Becton is on the board we take him. I have 100% faith in him given his track record. Just observing Douglas, I can't see him actually taking a WR if a top OT is on the board. It just doesn't really make sense IMO considering the depth of WR here.

Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh 

I thought you were gonna keep this one quiet!  hahahaha 

I got into a lot of trouble doing this. Both among posters here when it didn't happen the way I was told, AND from the guy who told me. lol 

???

[GREENBEAN]

14 hours ago, Dcat said:

Some people think that the drop off from top 4 or 5 OT to the 2nd tier is less severe than the drop off from rd 1 WRs to rd 2 Wrs.  If they are correct, and I believe that they are, going with Jeudy/Ruggs and OT at 48 would make sense.  

Interesting. I see it as the exact opposite.  Going from Becton, Thomas, Wills, Wirfs, Jones to Jackson, Cleveland, Wilson, Peart, Tega-Wonoghu is more severe imo than from Jeudy, Ruggs, Lamb, Higgins to Jefferson, Shenault, Mims, Aiyuk, Pittman jr. 

And the next drop off is even more severe in the same direction.  The T's being Adams, Driscoll, Niang Throckmorton, Adeniji. 

the third group of Wr's being Peoples-Jones, Gandy-Golden, Johnson, Hill, Van Jefferson, Claypool

The good news is that there are some really good players in both groups. But I'd much rather grab one of those 1st 5 T's and one of the second group of WR's than the other way around.  That list consists of 30 quality players at the Jets two greatest needs on offense.

If we go D I'll lose it.  

[LAD_Brooklyn]

14 hours ago, LAD_Brooklyn said:

78.6 Rushing yards per game. Worst in the NFL only behind the Dolphins who were gutting their roster to tank. The Dolphins traded their number one RB in Kenyan Drake while the Jets had a healthy Bell for the entire season. In fact the 9ers average twice as many rushing yards per game then we did. It's not like we have some mega passing offense to have such a low average. Looking at the past Jets offenses, we have to take it back to 2005 as the last time the Jets fielded a rushing offense that failed to produce 100 yards per game. Eric Magini team managed 83 rushing yards per game. Meanwhile we would of thought this wasn't the case going with an offensive HC for the first time in a longtime.

The Jets really need help rushing the football. Jeudy and Ruggs will not fear well on a one dimensional offense. Bama for one had a great running game lead by Damien Harris, Najee Harris and Josh Jacob who all ran for over 5-6 yards per carry. Plus Perriman and Crowder is far from the evaluate of Smith and Jeudy when speaking of Ruggs or Ruggs and Smith when speaking of Jeudy. My point is that on the Jets, they won't have a luxury of talent to take the focus off them like they did in college added with a one dimensional offense.

 

Not to mention that the following draft we selected Brick and Mangold. So in 2005 we didn't fix having our sub par offense by drafting Reggie Bush, select Matt Lineart or Cutler to open up the passing game. Addai, DeAngelo Williams or Holmes.

[TNJet]

13 minutes ago, LAD_Brooklyn said:

Not to mention that the following draft we selected Brick and Mangold. So in 2005 we didn't fix having our sub par offense by drafting Reggie Bush, select Matt Lineart or Cutler to open up the passing game. Addai, DeAngelo Williams or Holmes.

But we made the playoffs at 10-6 the next year thanks to Brick and Mangold. Reckon OL help other offensive positions thrive??? Duh.

[K_O_Brien]

9 hours ago, Paradis said:

I agree with the general philosophy here; if JD has a high grade/believes in a Thomas, or whomever - and they're there - that should be the call... It all starts up front... In addition the drop off after 50 for OTs is much more significant this year, than it is w/ WRs

The way the draft is falling though - JD may wind up with a situation where he's faced with a WR with a stellar grade, but the OTs left are more red chip than blue chip... What do you do then?... I wouldn't want to be faced with that choice.... would likely be decided by how confident I am in those tier 2 OTs.

Yep, that's the first deal-breaker before even thinking about Jeudy at 11.

There's a strong probability Douglas likes 2-3 of the tier 2 OTs. Let's say he is comfortable with taking one of Jones, Jackson and Cleveland, with a view to one of them becoming a long-term starter at tackle. 

But even if he does, it is likely so too will a bunch of other teams, who all get to pick after 11 and before 48. Teams like Miami, NE, NO, Cin, Jax, GB, Min, NYG (if they pass a 4).  How comfortable would I be if I'm Douglas, watching the rest of the first round play out, knowng there are 6 or 7 teams with a need at tackle and  only 3 players I like? 

If there is a decent chance the second tier of tackles are gone by our second pick, you are now down to the third tier guys. If we are drafting a third tier tackle, then we have failed Darnold again. 

Of course, we could move back into the bottom of the first round to grab a tackle, but that potential loss of draft capital needs to be factored into any decision to take Jeudy at 11. 

Tough choices. 

[IndianaJet]

 

A little overboard here Chris. Jeudy = Corey Davis?  That's a little extreme

[T0mShane]

12 hours ago, Greenseed4 said:

Top-10 OTs thru week-15 (per pff)
(I also included draft position)

1. RT, Lane Johnson #4(1) 

2. RT, Ryan Ramczyk #32(1) 

3. RT, La’El Collins undrafted 

4. LT, Ronnie Stanley #6(1) 

5. LT, Jason Peters undrafted 

6. RT, Mitchell Schwartz #37(2) 

7. LT, Anthony Costonzo #22(1) 

8. LT, Terron Armstead #75(3) 

9. RT, Brian Buluga #23(1) 

10. LT, Taylor Decker #16(1) 

 

[Dcat]

8 hours ago, GREENBEAN said:

Interesting. I see it as the exact opposite.  Going from Becton, Thomas, Wills, Wirfs, Jones to Jackson, Cleveland, Wilson, Peart, Tega-Wonoghu is more severe imo than from Jeudy, Ruggs, Lamb, Higgins to Jefferson, Shenault, Mims, Aiyuk, Pittman jr. 

And the next drop off is even more severe in the same direction.  The T's being Adams, Driscoll, Niang Throckmorton, Adeniji. 

the third group of Wr's being Peoples-Jones, Gandy-Golden, Johnson, Hill, Van Jefferson, Claypool

The good news is that there are some really good players in both groups. But I'd much rather grab one of those 1st 5 T's and one of the second group of WR's than the other way around.  That list consists of 30 quality players at the Jets two greatest needs on offense.

If we go D I'll lose it.  

we'll agree to disagree on the falloff differential between the 1st/2nd tier WRs and 1st/2nd tier of OTs.

As @jetstream23 pointed out more than once, it is not just a matter of who the top 4 OTs are. You are assuming that all 4 fit JD's and AG's scheme when not all of them may do so.  There may be guys like Cleveland or Niang who fit JDs vision better than a project like Becton.  We really don't know.

I see a monumental difference between Lamb/Jeudy and even Ruggs and the lower tier 2s  like Aiyuk (I'll leave out higher tier 2 guys like Higgins and Mims, who will be gone in bottom half of 1st round).   I want the WR in 11.  

Ideally A trade down to get Mims/Higgins and 2 OL in round 2 would be better.

[T0mShane]

1 hour ago, IndianaJet said:

 

A little overboard here Chris. Jeudy = Corey Davis?  That's a little extreme

Has some serious Doug Gottlieb-on-Steph-Curry potential here

[Dcat]

On 3/31/2020 at 2:06 AM, jetstream23 said:

It's from ESPN+ so I won't copy/paste the whole thing but here are the notable parts...

https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2020/insider/story/_/id/28970129/2020-nfl-mock-draft-todd-mcshay-post-free-agency-prediction-rounds-1-2

In Round 2 he has the Jets taking DE Marlon Davidson of Auburn.  At that point the "big four" OTs are gone as are Austin Jackson and Josh Jones.  The Jets pass on OTs Lucas Niang, Prince Wanogho, Isaiah Wilson at #48 in McShay's mock.  The also leave CB Jaylon Johnson and Edge rusher Josh Uche on the board.

^ Smart drafting IMO

[GREENBEAN]

23 minutes ago, Dcat said:

we'll agree to disagree on the falloff differential between the 1st/2nd tier WRs and 1st/2nd tier of OTs.

 

 well when ya say it like that...,  ?

 

 

[varjet]

13 hours ago, Greenseed4 said:

Top-10 OTs thru week-15 (per pff)
(I also included draft position)

1. RT, Lane Johnson #4(1) 

2. RT, Ryan Ramczyk #32(1) 

3. RT, La’El Collins undrafted 

4. LT, Ronnie Stanley #6(1) 

5. LT, Jason Peters undrafted 

6. RT, Mitchell Schwartz #37(2) 

7. LT, Anthony Costonzo #22(1) 

8. LT, Terron Armstead #75(3) 

9. RT, Brian Buluga #23(1) 

10. LT, Taylor Decker #16(1) 

 

Collins should have been a 1st round draft pick, but for the murder rap. 

Peters was a fluke.  

 

[Greenseed4]

26 minutes ago, varjet said:

Collins should have been a 1st round draft pick, but for the murder rap. 

Peters was a fluke.  

 

Peters was a college tight end who needed time in the pros to make the transition to OT. 

[HawkeyeJet]

Not sure if it's been mentioned already, but Gase's passing offense is highly predicated on timing and rhythm.  This is an obvious area of strength for Jeudy.  

I'm really torn on who I would want at WR if they go that route.  Ruggs is getting late rub, and fits the explosive traits Douglas says he covets.

Jeudy is probably the player that comes in immediately and contributes the most, and thus probably helps Sam the most immediately.

Lamb is my personal favorite and I see him likely as the best player down the road.

 

[bitonti]

15 hours ago, Greenseed4 said:

Top-10 OTs thru week-15 (per pff)
(I also included draft position)

1. RT, Lane Johnson #4(1) 

2. RT, Ryan Ramczyk #32(1) 

3. RT, La’El Collins undrafted 

4. LT, Ronnie Stanley #6(1) 

5. LT, Jason Peters undrafted 

6. RT, Mitchell Schwartz #37(2) 

7. LT, Anthony Costonzo #22(1) 

8. LT, Terron Armstead #75(3) 

9. RT, Brian Buluga #23(1) 

10. LT, Taylor Decker #16(1) 

 

by the way another way to read this data is out of the top 10 tackles only 2 were drafted 11 overall or higher 

if JD is so smart he can take Matt Peart in rd 3 and turn him into the next Terron Armstead 

[bitonti]

20 minutes ago, HawkeyeJet said:

Not sure if it's been mentioned already, but Gase's passing offense is highly predicated on timing and rhythm.  This is an obvious area of strength for Jeudy.  

I'm really torn on who I would want at WR if they go that route.  Ruggs is getting late rub, and fits the explosive traits Douglas says he covets.

Jeudy is probably the player that comes in immediately and contributes the most, and thus probably helps Sam the most immediately.

Lamb is my personal favorite and I see him likely as the best player down the road.

 

If the Jets have a choice of all three WR at 11 that will be a luxury 

like the tackles, it's possible all three turn into really good players 

I'd take Ruggs because Crowder can be a very poor man's Jeudy or Lamb. He's reliable.

I don't believe Perriman or V. Smith will even come close to doing what Robby did or what Ruggs can do 

this was the least explosive offense in football last season and adding Linemen doesn't fix that issue 

Sam Darnold does need to be protected he also needs to take the next step and elevate the players around him 

 

[DoubleDown]

20 hours ago, bitonti said:

If This board fell I'd take Becton no problem 

that being said 

Joe Douglas' roots being OL means he should be able to find starting quality lineman all over the draft 

or at least some interesting developmental guys

There's no reason to believe this crew can hit on those 3rd rd Wr picks everyone is so fond of citing. 

 

also 1 tackle pick at 11 doesn't make this line a super unit. they are going to be meh/decent no matter what in 2020 (rookies are rarely all pros) 

At the end of the day for the team in its current state, if I had to choose between a blue chip OT prospect vs. a blue chip WR prospect, I would go with the OT.  Darnold must be protected at all costs!  Receivers are an easier position to fill than tackles in my opinion.

Bottom line, the team has 4 picks in the first three rounds, and nothing would make me happier than 2 OL and 2 WR with those four picks.  The order doesn't particularly matter to me.  Just pick quality players that are going to bring this offense to a respectable level over the next few years.  It's time this team starts to actually hit on its picks.

[Jetlife33]

PICK

11

Tristan Wirfs - OT

 

School: Iowa | Year: Junior 

The Jets re-stocked their offensive line the best they could in free agency, but they're not done. If Wirfs is still on the board at 11th overall, I could see GM Joe Douglas -- a former offensive lineman himself -- taking very little time submitting the pick to the league. Wirfs can be an NFL offensive tackle or guard. He's an athlete with tremendous power who comes from an offensive line factory. He's a Day 1 starter wherever you use him.

 

 

 

via peter schragers 1st mock draft, he has ties to the Jets ownership if I recall correctly

[GREENBEAN]

8 hours ago, bitonti said:

If the Jets have a choice of all three WR at 11 that will be a luxury 

like the tackles, it's possible all three turn into really good players 

I'd take Ruggs because Crowder can be a very poor man's Jeudy or Lamb. He's reliable.

I don't believe Perriman or V. Smith will even come close to doing what Robby did or what Ruggs can do 

this was the least explosive offense in football last season and adding Linemen doesn't fix that issue 

Sam Darnold does need to be protected he also needs to take the next step and elevate the players around him 

 

I believe we  can do both. I actually like the unit JD has been building through FA, but to pair with a couple of draft pick OL.  That's why I think going T in the first is so important. I'm not so concerned with getting one of the top 4 if JD happens to like one of the second batch just as much or more. 

Getting say, Jones in the first and Shenault/Mims in the second would be better than  Juedy/Peart/Wonoghu.  I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on the matter actually.  Which OL outside of the top 4 are you high on? 

[adb280z]

15 hours ago, IndianaJet said:

 

A little overboard here Chris. Jeudy = Corey Davis?  That's a little extreme

Sims kinda contradicts himself here.  Says you need elite physical talents and then says his favorite guy is one without elite size or speed.

[bitonti]

15 hours ago, GREENBEAN said:

I believe we  can do both. I actually like the unit JD has been building through FA, but to pair with a couple of draft pick OL.  That's why I think going T in the first is so important. I'm not so concerned with getting one of the top 4 if JD happens to like one of the second batch just as much or more. 

Getting say, Jones in the first and Shenault/Mims in the second would be better than  Juedy/Peart/Wonoghu.  I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on the matter actually.  Which OL outside of the top 4 are you high on? 

It's a great class I like a whole bunch of these guys

 

the questions are 1) at what price and 2) how do they fit the ZONE system?

Josh Jones is a George Fant clone in terms of measurables the trick will be to get him at value. He's probably not worth 11. Jones in rd 2 would be awesome, but he might not get there.

I really like Matt Peart (poor man's Eric Fisher) even tho he's a little older. Ezra Cleveland is a poor man's Kolton Miller. if the Jets draft Austin Jackson it would not be surprising at all.  they can find their rd 2 rd 3 guys and make a case for them. 

what people need to realize is that whether they draft the player at 11 or at 48 or in rd 3 that rookie is not going to be an all pro. All rookies (mostly) take a year or more to become legit NFL linemen. People forget how rocky Brick's rookie year was. 

 They had their chance to draft an insta-all pro his name is Quenton Nelson and guys like that come around once every 10-20 years maybe

Let's say they take Becton. The guy needs to learn everything about being a pro and he's like 20 years old. Wills is a penalty machine. Wirfs has never played LT in college. Thomas is the most "pro ready" LT JMO. 

unfortunately the same is often true of WR - they need to learn how to get off a pro jam, learn hot routes etc. They can punt return and jet sweep or whatever as rookies but Ruggs would be like a rich man's Santana Moss. 

drafting offense (other than RB) is for the future not the instant result. 

 

[mudcat22]

On 4/1/2020 at 5:33 PM, Jetlife33 said:

PICK

11

Tristan Wirfs - OT

 

School: Iowa | Year: Junior 

The Jets re-stocked their offensive line the best they could in free agency, but they're not done. If Wirfs is still on the board at 11th overall, I could see GM Joe Douglas -- a former offensive lineman himself -- taking very little time submitting the pick to the league. Wirfs can be an NFL offensive tackle or guard. He's an athlete with tremendous power who comes from an offensive line factory. He's a Day 1 starter wherever you use him.

 

 

 

via peter schragers 1st mock draft, he has ties to the Jets ownership if I recall correctly

I rate Wirfs the best OT in draft.  He will never drop to #11.

[mudcat22]

I'd take Juedy if Becton, Akudah, and Simmons are off Board.  No way Wirfs drops.  I think Giants take him at #4.  Maybe we can drop back some and get extra picks and still get a good WR.