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Trading Back at #4


OilfieldJet
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While I can't see any scenario in which this would happen, I'd jump at it if it did.  Three mid first rounders (and the opportunities to trade down again, and / or for 2023 picks) would be far better for us than what we currently have.

 

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I’d take it, don’t think it really matters who’s on the board, and I’d probably take 16 and 19 instead too if that’s all Philly offered.

Jets have a lot of needs. And the top six guys in the draft are a senior breakout pass rusher, a toolsy pass rusher who never had a production breakout, two potential left tackles who the Jets would likely start at right guard and who may never play left tackle for the team, a safety, and a corner who’s coming off an injury and had by far his best year in 2019. I think there’s a better chance for a need-value match in that mid first round area and having three picks in that region of the draft instead of two would be huge.

Agree with the previous poster I don’t really see a scenario that it happens. I think if there’s any shot of a trade down from 4 it’s to someone in the Atlanta-Denver region, maybe Washington. It’ll depend a lot how the QB’s shake out, draft wise and offseason wise.

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Only logical way I see of trading back from 4 is if someone loves one of the QBs and wants to jump Carolina and the Giants.  I don't see Philly as that team. 

More likely, imo, we make both of our picks at 4 and 10.  Same reason we are all thinking ot trade back options is why there are not likely to be many solid offers.  No real difference makers at impact positions in this draft, plus a weak QB draft.  A lot can change between now and April, but I don't see many realistic trade possibilities right now.

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These mock simulators are fun but not really realistic at all.

Of course I’d make the move if they offered it.

Having 3 picks in the Top 20 and walking away from the 1st round with something like Ojabo, Linderbaum and Dean would be an ideal scenario.

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2 minutes ago, Lith said:

Only logical way I see of trading back from 4 is if someone loves one of the QBs and wants to jump Carolina and the Giants.  I don't see Philly as that team. 

More likely, imo, we make both of our picks at 4 and 10.  Same reason we are all thinking ot trade back options is why there are not likely to be many solid offers.  No real difference makers at impact positions in this draft, plus a weak QB draft.  A lot can change between now and April, but I don't see many realistic trade possibilities right now.

I don’t have a lot of hope for 4 but 10 does seem like a decent spot. I could see teams wanting to get ahead of Washington.

Much as this is weak QB draft, there are a few things that make me think it’ll pick up, albeit not at the top of the draft to make 4 super valuable. 

One is the QB class isn’t great but I think it’s better than 2013 for example, there are several guys in that first - second round range.

Building off that, the class in general is weak. Given the importance of the QB position, I think even if this class’ QB’s aren’t top of the draft guys, the upside of hitting on a QB is so great for a franchise. Combine that with there not being a lot of tremendous other players available and I think the opportunity cost of a QB is more favorable than if it was a better draft overall.

And then what brings it all together is the QB carousel this year. Tons of teams are unsettled at the position and Roethlisberger retiring plus potentially Brady compounds it (if Rodgers retires I assume they keep Love, if he wants another team that does take a spot). Pretty clear needs for Denver, Washington, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, and honestly Houston though they may do nothing. Could be adding Tampa to that list. For different reasons I think Detroit, Atlanta, Carolina, and Philadelphia may be opportunistic. Minnesota is supposedly not entirely sold on Cousins, Cleveland hasn’t extended Mayfield - other potentially opportunistic teams. Plus with Gettleman out of New York I assume Daniel Jones is on very thin ice, the Giants could probably be on the first list. Actually they’re probably the key to where QB’s start falling - and the value of pick four. I think some of those teams are going to get left out of the vet musical chairs game or decide they need to rebuild or that the upside of potentially hitting is too valuable if they’re in a position to try again if they bust.

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6 hours ago, Lith said:

Only logical way I see of trading back from 4 is if someone loves one of the QBs and wants to jump Carolina and the Giants.  I don't see Philly as that team. 

I could see an OT-needy team wanting to trade up to get Neal, Okwonu, or Cross.  All three of those guys could realistically go top 5, so I could see a team looking to jump in front of the Giants (who desperately need OL help) to ensure themselves of getting one.

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I look at that every time I run a mock.  First of all, I think it much more likely we'd be lucky to get #16 and #19 from them if any trade were to happen.  And the only way it makes any sense for them is if Thibs falls and they loved him.

Would I make that trade in that case?  Yes, absolutely.

At #10, #16 and #19, we could fill in three needs very easily and even go a little off-script at #10 (say if Hamilton falls).

16 and 19 are the sweet spot for WR, LB, tier-2 Edge and maybe a CB who drops.  Depends on what we do at #10.

But a draft of Burks, Jermaine Johnson, and Devin Lloyd is possible.

Or maybe you prefer Karlaftis, London and Linderbaum.

So many combinations open up and that's not even counting our two top-2nd round picks.

Still....probably nothing more than a pipe dream.

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On 1/26/2022 at 6:23 AM, OilfieldJet said:

In some of my mock runs, a possible trade with Philadelphia pops up: our #4 for their #15 and #16. I always take it, what do you think? Does it even matter who is on the Board?

The only possible scenario is if Thib or Hutch fall. In which case the Jets should probably just take said player. Especially Thib because he has the higher upside. But you put Hutch on this team, with Lawson on the other side and JFM/QW on the interior and he will thrive. 

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3 hours ago, nycdan said:

I look at that every time I run a mock.  First of all, I think it much more likely we'd be lucky to get #16 and #19 from them if any trade were to happen.  And the only way it makes any sense for them is if Thibs falls and they loved him.

Would I make that trade in that case?  Yes, absolutely.

At #10, #16 and #19, we could fill in three needs very easily and even go a little off-script at #10 (say if Hamilton falls).

16 and 19 are the sweet spot for WR, LB, tier-2 Edge and maybe a CB who drops.  Depends on what we do at #10.

But a draft of Burks, Jermaine Johnson, and Devin Lloyd is possible.

Or maybe you prefer Karlaftis, London and Linderbaum.

So many combinations open up and that's not even counting our two top-2nd round picks.

Still....probably nothing more than a pipe dream.

Its not enough.

You are adding an extra first rounder in the low teens and dropping your premium top five pick to the low teens. If one guy busts the trade was an utter failure. I know it increases your odds for NOT ending up with a bust but if Thib ends up a stud you have major egg on your face. Elite pass rushers are hard to find and cost a ton of dough. If the Jets were lucky enough that Thib falls to them, you take what most have considered all year to be the top pass rusher in the draft. You still have a draft pick at 10 to move down with or take a player. 

Teams have paid INSANE prices for moving up from 16 or 19 to top 5. If a guy like Thib falls to 4, the offer should be monumental, otherwise, the Jets should just draft him.  

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3 minutes ago, PepPep said:

Its not enough.

You are adding an extra first rounder in the low teens and dropping your premium top five pick to the low teens. If one guy busts the trade was an utter failure. I know it increases your odds for NOT ending up with a bust but if Thib ends up a stud you have major egg on your face. Elite pass rushers are hard to find and cost a ton of dough. If the Jets were lucky enough that Thib falls to them, you take what most have considered all year to be the top pass rusher in the draft. You still have a draft pick at 10 to move down with or take a player. 

Teams have paid INSANE prices for moving up from 16 or 19 to top 5. If a guy like Thib falls to 4, the offer should be monumental, otherwise, the Jets should just draft him.  

I don't necessarily agree. The draft value charts are great as a guide - but at the end of the day when it comes to trade picks from now to the draft teams aren't trading up for a draft slot they are trading up for a player. When we had the third pick in 2019 the rumors were we tried to trade down but couldn't get enough "value". Compare that to last year when SF traded three first round picks to move from 12 to 3. 

The reports on this class are that none of these players would have gone top 13 in last years class. Its not that hard to believe when you look at who was taken at 13 last year (Slater - who'd probably get a higher grade than Neal or Icky). Whatever the draft value chart says for a top five pick I'd cut that pretty significantly since there is no premium/blue chip prospect in this class - let alone at four. Maybe that changes if Thibs or Hutch drop to four - but my guess is the Jets just send that in. 

If the Jets have a similar ranking on the top guy at their board at 4 (maybe Icky or Neal) as they do the guys that may be available at 12-18 (the WRs and corners my guess) I would be more than fine with them taking a haircut on 'fair market value" 

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Oddly enough, the closest trade to this I can remember is Sanchez.

We traded #17, our 2nd rounder, and 3 scrubs to move up to #5.  That was an enormous trade for us in terms of value at the time.  Most of the other trade-ups involved going to top-2 (e.g. RGIII or Goff/Wentz) and carried much larger price tags.

Maybe the next closest was the Rosen trade when ARI traded #15, a 3rd and 5th rounders for #10.  Not a huge price tag until you consider what they ultimately got.

Finally, there's Julio.  ATL had a much lower pick, trading #27, their 2nd and 4th rounders, and next year's 1st and 4th rounders.  Big haul for CLE, but I'm not sure the total value was much higher than #16 and #19.

I guess you could include AVT, where we traded a #23 and two 3rd round picks for #14 and a 4th.  

Anyway, I think the biggest factor in the price to move up is what the lower team is looking for.  QBs get the big price tags.  Non-QBs not so much.  Not sure if anyone at #4, even Thibs, is worth a king's ransom.  

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1 hour ago, Columbia Jet Fan said:

I don't necessarily agree. The draft value charts are great as a guide - but at the end of the day when it comes to trade picks from now to the draft teams aren't trading up for a draft slot they are trading up for a player. When we had the third pick in 2019 the rumors were we tried to trade down but couldn't get enough "value". Compare that to last year when SF traded three first round picks to move from 12 to 3. 

The reports on this class are that none of these players would have gone top 13 in last years class. Its not that hard to believe when you look at who was taken at 13 last year (Slater - who'd probably get a higher grade than Neal or Icky). Whatever the draft value chart says for a top five pick I'd cut that pretty significantly since there is no premium/blue chip prospect in this class - let alone at four. Maybe that changes if Thibs or Hutch drop to four - but my guess is the Jets just send that in. 

If the Jets have a similar ranking on the top guy at their board at 4 (maybe Icky or Neal) as they do the guys that may be available at 12-18 (the WRs and corners my guess) I would be more than fine with them taking a haircut on 'fair market value" 

The reports on this class are that none of these players would have gone top 13 in last years class.

There are a few exceptions. I think Neal and Thib are exceptions. These guys are top tier prospects that would only be bumped down due to teams "over-valuing" the QB position. 

Last year 4 QBs went in the top 13. I think if the QB class was weak last year like it is this year, and you would probably have guys like Slater (13) and AVT (14) go top 10. Sewell would have been a top 5, top 3 pick. You can't tell me Neal and Thib are not prospects on that level. Thib has been talked about as a top 5 prospect for the past 2-3 years. And he is the specific player we are talking about if a trade were to materialize.  

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Not that I want him, but Stingley is better than Surtain. Not that I want Stingley.  Also I believe Garrett Wilson is better than Waddle.

That being said, I hope JD moves back into the 1st round and addresses the edge rusher. The Jets could give up either 2nd and their 3rd to get to the LV spot or Arizona's spot. Ojabo or Walker are interesting edge rushers in this draft that haven't reached their full potential in college.

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I don't like trading the 4 pick because the true elite picks in this draft are very capped. Its a top heavy draft. You're basically exchanging a top 5 overall pick for two high seconds rounders. Doesn't work for me and I imagine on any trade chart. 

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With the Daboll signing maybe the giants will move up to 4 to take Willis. He’s similar to josh Allen coming out and daboll may want to mold him.  if there’s a threat of another team jumping up. They move up 1 spot and give us a 2nd round pick. 
 

Crazy? Maybe, but who knows 

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On 1/26/2022 at 10:02 AM, UntouchableCrew said:

I would agree that's a trade worth making. It just strikes me as unlikely we'd have a partner there.

I suppose it's not crazy that there might be a QB that shoots up the rankings. Eagles falling in love with Pickett seems like the only scenario where this could happen.

Or Steelers

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I would even be more than ok trading 4 and 10 for 15,16,19. I think thats something we should really consider to get Philly to do this as I dont think they would do the trade in the OP. If no trades Im on board with the consensus of Ekwonu at 4 and Burks/London at 10. But honestly at 15 we should still be able to get 1 of Burks/London/Wilson. So if we like all 3 equally then we should do this imo. Assuming Hutch and Thibs are gone and Philly would be moving up after falling in love with Hamilton. At 16 and 19 we can get a Devin Lloyd, a Jermaine Johnson, or even Kenyon Green. Kenyon Green works the same way for us as Icky does. A Guard that can slide to Tackle if sh*t hits the fan with Becton. He played every position in College besides Center. Best case scenario is different though because we would ideally want Becton and Fant to remain the Tackles and now we have 2 potential Pro Bowl caliber guards on the team. And if needed Kenyon can make the switch to Tackle if we dont want to resign Fant or if Becton cant stay on the field. Taking Ekwonu at 4 he almost has to be our future Tackle because he'll be very expensive to keep at guard longterm.

That extra first round pick is huge. The reason Philly would do it is if they fall in love with Icky, Neal or Hamilton and then they really want 1 specific guy at 15 that they are afraid might not be there. He'll be there at 10 so it makes sense. I think Browns take Wilson so we should still have 1 of London or Burks at 15. And for those that dont want Kenyon Green we could go Zion Johnson in the 2nd round instead.

 First 5 picks of lets say Burks, Lloyd, Jermaine Johnson, Mcbride, and Zion or Burks, Lloyd, Green, Mcbride, Ebiketie would be amazing. 3rd round you can go corner if we didnt take care of that in FA. FA will def change somethings (lets say we sign Allen Robinson as our X which I think can very well happen) we can go someone like Sauce Gardner instead of a rookie WR or even Linderbaum as 1 of those 3 first round picks. 

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On 1/26/2022 at 9:55 AM, Lith said:

Only logical way I see of trading back from 4 is if someone loves one of the QBs and wants to jump Carolina and the Giants.  I don't see Philly as that team. 

More likely, imo, we make both of our picks at 4 and 10.  Same reason we are all thinking ot trade back options is why there are not likely to be many solid offers.  No real difference makers at impact positions in this draft, plus a weak QB draft.  A lot can change between now and April, but I don't see many realistic trade possibilities right now.

10 is the pick most likely to be traded, since it's just ahead of Washington (so someone may want to come up for a QB) and also ahead of a run of teams (Vikings/Browns/Ravens) that have similar needs and seem to like similar players. 

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9 hours ago, Litez said:

I would even be more than ok trading 4 and 10 for 15,16,19. I think thats something we should really consider to get Philly to do this as I dont think they would do the trade in the OP. If no trades Im on board with the consensus of Ekwonu at 4 and Burks/London at 10. But honestly at 15 we should still be able to get 1 of Burks/London/Wilson. So if we like all 3 equally then we should do this imo. Assuming Hutch and Thibs are gone and Philly would be moving up after falling in love with Hamilton. At 16 and 19 we can get a Devin Lloyd, a Jermaine Johnson, or even Kenyon Green. Kenyon Green works the same way for us as Icky does. A Guard that can slide to Tackle if sh*t hits the fan with Becton. He played every position in College besides Center. Best case scenario is different though because we would ideally want Becton and Fant to remain the Tackles and now we have 2 potential Pro Bowl caliber guards on the team. And if needed Kenyon can make the switch to Tackle if we dont want to resign Fant or if Becton cant stay on the field. Taking Ekwonu at 4 he almost has to be our future Tackle because he'll be very expensive to keep at guard longterm.

That extra first round pick is huge. The reason Philly would do it is if they fall in love with Icky, Neal or Hamilton and then they really want 1 specific guy at 15 that they are afraid might not be there. He'll be there at 10 so it makes sense. I think Browns take Wilson so we should still have 1 of London or Burks at 15. And for those that dont want Kenyon Green we could go Zion Johnson in the 2nd round instead.

 First 5 picks of lets say Burks, Lloyd, Jermaine Johnson, Mcbride, and Zion or Burks, Lloyd, Green, Mcbride, Ebiketie would be amazing. 3rd round you can go corner if we didnt take care of that in FA. FA will def change somethings (lets say we sign Allen Robinson as our X which I think can very well happen) we can go someone like Sauce Gardner instead of a rookie WR or even Linderbaum as 1 of those 3 first round picks. 

I appreciate the thought but 4 & 10 for 15, 16, 19? That's crazy

By chart value, we'd be dealing away 3,100 points worth of picks and taking back 2,925 - you're losing a second round pick's worth of value. Why would you ever do that?

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On 1/26/2022 at 3:23 AM, OilfieldJet said:

In some of my mock runs, a possible trade with Philadelphia pops up: our #4 for their #15 and #16. I always take it, what do you think? Does it even matter who is on the Board?

If Thibs and Hutch are gone and Philly offers that, I'm all in. Please throw in a Cheesesteak. And then trade back from 10 also for an additional 2nd rounder.  So lets say 15,16,  Trade 10 with Saints for 18 and 49.  We could land Lloyd, Linderbaum, Burks. Regardless, we would be getting 3 blue chip players to start day one.

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On 1/26/2022 at 1:32 PM, Bronxville Jets Fan said:

I could see an OT-needy team wanting to trade up to get Neal, Okwonu, or Cross.  All three of those guys could realistically go top 5, so I could see a team looking to jump in front of the Giants (who desperately need OL help) to ensure themselves of getting one.

I dont want to spend such a high pick on neal. We need deense. there's some relly good options in late round 2 - Kinnard or Lucas or Walker.

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15 hours ago, Doggin94it said:

I appreciate the thought but 4 & 10 for 15, 16, 19? That's crazy

By chart value, we'd be dealing away 3,100 points worth of picks and taking back 2,925 - you're losing a second round pick's worth of value. Why would you ever do that?

Because I don't think Philly will do that trade otherwise and I think the best value for the 1st rd is in that range of where Philly is picking. Whatever we get at 10 wont be much better or different than what you get at 15. Its all going to be preference. If we prefer a specific WR then dont make that trade. If we prefer a specific player at 10 then dont make the trade. But we have so many needs and theres so many guys that will help this team that we can get with Philly's picks that it makes sense to get the extra 1st rder.

Whoever is trading down this year will probably lose value with the traditional value chart that you're looking at because the market isnt the same this year. Supply and Demand. More teams are going to want to trade down and less are going to want to trade up because there is nothing worth while (QB) for teams to out bid each other to trade up for. The value chart is just a reference to help you get an idea. There's also other charts to look at like the Rich Hill Model and that actually gives more value for 15,16,19 than 4 and 10. 

Also a big reason for my interest in this trade is I personally think Jermaine Johnson and Arnold Ebiketie are better than Karlaftis and Ojabo. And we can get 1 of those with Phillys picks. I personally have a hard time figuring out which WR is best out of London, Burks, and Wilson and you should be able to get 1 at 15. I personally really like the idea of getting Ekwonu but I also think Kenyon Green's value later in the 1st is better for us. And I personally think someone like Devin Lloyd or Nakobe Dean will really help this defense because we need great LBs to help our attacking defensive line in the run and pass game. That why I would do it . That extra 1st rounder is bigger imo than what you will get at 4 (besides Hutch and Thibs) or your choice at 10 of the same tier of guys in that 10-20 range. Every draft is different. This draft I think the trade is worth it. But if it makes you feel better in this situation, lets add Philly's 3rd round pick into the equation of what we would get (175 points). 

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On 1/26/2022 at 7:55 AM, Lith said:

Only logical way I see of trading back from 4 is if someone loves one of the QBs and wants to jump Carolina and the Giants.  I don't see Philly as that team. 

More likely, imo, we make both of our picks at 4 and 10.  Same reason we are all thinking ot trade back options is why there are not likely to be many solid offers.  No real difference makers at impact positions in this draft, plus a weak QB draft.  A lot can change between now and April, but I don't see many realistic trade possibilities right now.

Would you discount the Draft Value Chart to trade down this year?  I think I might.  As you said, unless a QB really jumps out during the next 3 months of games, Combine, Pro Days, this Draft is lacking at the top.  Nothing says you need to hit the points that the chart tells you.  In this particular Draft JD could take less to move down.... and I might not have a problem with it.

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55 minutes ago, Litez said:

Because I don't think Philly will do that trade otherwise and I think the best value for the 1st rd is in that range of where Philly is picking. Whatever we get at 10 wont be much better or different than what you get at 15. Its all going to be preference. If we prefer a specific WR then dont make that trade. If we prefer a specific player at 10 then dont make the trade. But we have so many needs and theres so many guys that will help this team that we can get with Philly's picks that it makes sense to get the extra 1st rder.

Whoever is trading down this year will probably lose value with the traditional value chart that you're looking at because the market isnt the same this year. Supply and Demand. More teams are going to want to trade down and less are going to want to trade up because there is nothing worth while (QB) for teams to out bid each other to trade up for. The value chart is just a reference to help you get an idea. There's also other charts to look at like the Rich Hill Model and that actually gives more value for 15,16,19 than 4 and 10. 

Also a big reason for my interest in this trade is I personally think Jermaine Johnson and Arnold Ebiketie are better than Karlaftis and Ojabo. And we can get 1 of those with Phillys picks. I personally have a hard time figuring out which WR is best out of London, Burks, and Wilson and you should be able to get 1 at 15. I personally really like the idea of getting Ekwonu but I also think Kenyon Green's value later in the 1st is better for us. And I personally think someone like Devin Lloyd or Nakobe Dean will really help this defense because we need great LBs to help our attacking defensive line in the run and pass game. That why I would do it . That extra 1st rounder is bigger imo than what you will get at 4 (besides Hutch and Thibs) or your choice at 10 of the same tier of guys in that 10-20 range. Every draft is different. This draft I think the trade is worth it. But if it makes you feel better in this situation, lets add Philly's 3rd round pick into the equation of what we would get (175 points). 

More than half of Ekwonu's value to us is in his ability to kick out to OT in 2023 (after you've had a year to decide whether to resign Fant and assess Becton's progress, or 2024 if you're on the fence enough about Becton to extend Fant). Green can't do that. Give me Ekwonu at 4, Lloyd at 10 (or slightly lower) and then one of the 2d tier ends at the top of round 2 (Ebiketie, Johnson, Thomas, etc.) over Green + a WR instead of Ekwonu

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16 minutes ago, Doggin94it said:

More than half of Ekwonu's value to us is in his ability to kick out to OT in 2023 (after you've had a year to decide whether to resign Fant and assess Becton's progress, or 2024 if you're on the fence enough about Becton to extend Fant). Green can't do that. Give me Ekwonu at 4, Lloyd at 10 (or slightly lower) and then one of the 2d tier ends at the top of round 2 (Ebiketie, Johnson, Thomas, etc.) over Green + a WR instead of Ekwonu

I wont pretend that I know everything about Kenyon Green but all scouting reports I read on him is that he can play either guard spot or Right Tackle in the NFL (he played both guard spots and both Tackle spots in College so he can kick out to OT if Becton flops.) I really like Ekwonu, Lloyd, McBride, and 2nd round Edge a lot too so no complaints there from me. Burks and London excite me but I think getting a #1 WR in FA or Trade might be better. I think ARob makes a lot of sense. We need someone that can win vs man especially press man and someone that catches almost everything even in traffic. Up to Joe D to figure out if his 2021 was a fluke because he still looked really good in 2020.

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