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What we can learn from OTAs ..


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We’re not going to learn a ton, but we can learn a few things.  Here’s my list, what is yours?

1. Does Wilson show any evidence of the yips, ‘overthinking’ his throws which leads to a loss of accuracy that is much deeper than the occasional bad throw?  This is a real phenomenon that has affected New York athletes like Chuck Knoblauch, Steve Sax, and Mackey Sasser (catcher who had problems throwing the ball back to the pitcher).  

Wilson had excellent accuracy his last year in college but struggled mightily at times to make even the most basic throw as a rookie.  Personally it remains my #1 concern.

2. Can the WRs get separation?  Can the CBs cover?  Sure, we can only learn so much here without a true pass rush and with limited contact.  But we can get a feel.  Very happy to read about tight coverage from Sauce and Reed on a couple occasions yesterday.  If anything, it’s even tougher for the DBs to cover in this setting which makes the coverage stand out even more.

Mims deserves a special call out here because quite frankly he failed to gain a lot of separation in his first 2 years.  Would love to read real analysis on any improvement in his route running.  Unfortunately I don’t expect this to come from our mediocre beat writers who only seem to text a quick recap of specific plays or report on what they hear from sources.

3. Who does Wilson have chemistry with?  If I recall correctly, Berrios stood out last year which clearly carried over to the season.  Hoping to see improved chemistry with Davis, Moore & Mims, and any signs of natural chemistry with Wilson & the TEs.

4. What does the DB rotation look like?  Really curious to see who has an early edge at FS and nickel back.

 

What else?

 

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2 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

We’re not going to learn a ton, but we can learn a few things.  Here’s my list, what is yours?

1. Does Wilson show any evidence of the yips, ‘overthinking’ his throws which leads to a loss of accuracy that is much deeper than the occasional bad throw?  This is a real phenomenon that has affected New York athletes like Chuck Knoblauch, Steve Sax, and Mackey Sasser (catcher who had problems throwing the ball back to the pitcher).  

Wilson had excellent accuracy his last year in college but struggled mightily at times to make even the most basic throw as a rookie.  Personally it remains my #1 concern.

2. Can the WRs get separation?  Can the CBs cover?  Sure, we can only learn so much here without a true pass rush and with limited contact.  But we can get a feel.  Very happy to read about tight coverage from Sauce and Reed on a couple occasions yesterday.  If anything, it’s even tougher for the DBs to cover in this setting which makes the coverage stand out even more.

Mims deserves a special call out here because quite frankly he failed to gain a lot of separation in his first 2 years.  Would love to read real analysis on any improvement in his route running.  Unfortunately I don’t expect this to come from our mediocre beat writers who only seem to text a quick recap of specific plays or report on what they hear from sources.

3. Who does Wilson have chemistry with?  If I recall correctly, Berrios stood out last year which clearly carried over to the season.  Hoping to see improved chemistry with Davis, Moore & Mims, and any signs of natural chemistry with Wilson & the TEs.

4. What does the DB rotation look like?  Really curious to see who has an early edge at FS and nickel back.

 

What else?

 

I think we might be able to learn about #3 (spoiler: it's Berrios) but none of these other things.

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44 minutes ago, nj meadowlands said:

I think we might be able to learn about #3 (spoiler: it's Berrios) but none of these other things.

Why have them if we can’t learn anything?  There’s always things you can learn, even from practice.

Go back to last year and I believe Carter II was already starting ahead of Guidry, who ended the prior year strong as the starting slot.

You might be right though.  Still exciting to read the reports and imagine we are learning a little something ;).

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52 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

We’re not going to learn a ton, but we can learn a few things.  Here’s my list, what is yours?

1. Does Wilson show any evidence of the yips, ‘overthinking’ his throws which leads to a loss of accuracy that is much deeper than the occasional bad throw?  This is a real phenomenon that has affected New York athletes like Chuck Knoblauch, Steve Sax, and Mackey Sasser (catcher who had problems throwing the ball back to the pitcher).  

Wilson had excellent accuracy his last year in college but struggled mightily at times to make even the most basic throw as a rookie.  Personally it remains my #1 concern.

2. Can the WRs get separation?  Can the CBs cover?  Sure, we can only learn so much here without a true pass rush and with limited contact.  But we can get a feel.  Very happy to read about tight coverage from Sauce and Reed on a couple occasions yesterday.  If anything, it’s even tougher for the DBs to cover in this setting which makes the coverage stand out even more.

Mims deserves a special call out here because quite frankly he failed to gain a lot of separation in his first 2 years.  Would love to read real analysis on any improvement in his route running.  Unfortunately I don’t expect this to come from our mediocre beat writers who only seem to text a quick recap of specific plays or report on what they hear from sources.

3. Who does Wilson have chemistry with?  If I recall correctly, Berrios stood out last year which clearly carried over to the season.  Hoping to see improved chemistry with Davis, Moore & Mims, and any signs of natural chemistry with Wilson & the TEs.

4. What does the DB rotation look like?  Really curious to see who has an early edge at FS and nickel back.

 

What else?

 

For 1. Wilson seemed better at the short range accuracy in the games after his injury. Hopefully that continues.

For 3. I am mainly looking at the best of our WRs being Wilson/Davis/Moore/Berrios and it's a bonus if Mims provides productivity.

Just to add is any amount of at least attitude from the DLine even without pass rush being anything in the OTAs. And, whatever coverage ability we can get out of the LBs especially the light ones around 215lbs. Sure as you said the CBs and Safeties in that area with TEs and other receivers, but the LBs need to cover over the short middle with RBs/TEs to be good in that zone as well. 

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3 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

The Wilson doubters seem to only remember early season Zach and bad Zach. The short throw accuracy thing was over a few games and not an issue at all near the end. He does not have the yips. None of these things will become clear from OTAs

I have no idea how OP turned a few early season incompletions into a Mackey Sasser comparison.  

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1 hour ago, nj meadowlands said:

I think we might be able to learn about #3 (spoiler: it's Berrios) but none of these other things.

that may be true but that's because they were on the same field together more than any of the other receivers.  let's see davis, moore, garrett, and even mims get on the field as much and then we'll see who wilson has chemistry with.  and he was doing pretty well with moore in the game during the second half.

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1 hour ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

We’re not going to learn a ton, but we can learn a few things.  Here’s my list, what is yours?

1. Does Wilson show any evidence of the yips, ‘overthinking’ his throws which leads to a loss of accuracy that is much deeper than the occasional bad throw?  This is a real phenomenon that has affected New York athletes like Chuck Knoblauch, Steve Sax, and Mackey Sasser (catcher who had problems throwing the ball back to the pitcher).  

Wilson had excellent accuracy his last year in college but struggled mightily at times to make even the most basic throw as a rookie.  Personally it remains my #1 concern.

2. Can the WRs get separation?  Can the CBs cover?  Sure, we can only learn so much here without a true pass rush and with limited contact.  But we can get a feel.  Very happy to read about tight coverage from Sauce and Reed on a couple occasions yesterday.  If anything, it’s even tougher for the DBs to cover in this setting which makes the coverage stand out even more.

Mims deserves a special call out here because quite frankly he failed to gain a lot of separation in his first 2 years.  Would love to read real analysis on any improvement in his route running.  Unfortunately I don’t expect this to come from our mediocre beat writers who only seem to text a quick recap of specific plays or report on what they hear from sources.

3. Who does Wilson have chemistry with?  If I recall correctly, Berrios stood out last year which clearly carried over to the season.  Hoping to see improved chemistry with Davis, Moore & Mims, and any signs of natural chemistry with Wilson & the TEs.

4. What does the DB rotation look like?  Really curious to see who has an early edge at FS and nickel back.

 

What else?

 

1- Wilson doesnt have the yips.  He was not fully confident in the playbook which caused him to overthink out there.  Saleh explained this a few weeks back.  Now that he knows the playbook like the back of his hand, those accuracy issues will disappear.

2- Of course the wrs can get separation.  You saw this last year with Davis, moore and berrios.  And being that Garret Wilson is a total stud, separation wont be an issue for him either.

And of course the cbs can cover.  We know hall and reed can cover and sauce is a freak, stud who will no have issues blanketing receivers.

3- Wislon already has great chemistry already with Davis, Berrios and Moore.  The chemistry with the tight ends and garret wilson will come over the course of the summer.

4- Looks like Reed, Hall and Sauce will rotate btwn the 2 corner spots with MC2 the nickel guy.  At safety, whitehead has 1 spot locked down and it looks like pinnock is getting 1st crack at the other spot.

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6 minutes ago, Joe W. Namath said:

1- Wilson doesnt have the yips.  He was not fully confident in the playbook which caused him to overthink out there.  Saleh explained this a few weeks back.  Now that he knows the playbook like the back of his hand, those accuracy issues will disappear.

2- Of course the wrs can get separation.  You saw this last year with Davis, moore and berrios.  And being that Garret Wilson is a total stud, separation wont be an issue for him either.

And of course the cbs can cover.  We know hall and reed can cover and sauce is a freak, stud who will no have issues blanketing receivers.

3- Wislon already has great chemistry already with Davis, Berrios and Moore.  The chemistry with the tight ends and garret wilson will come over the course of the summer.

4- Looks like Reed, Hall and Sauce will rotate btwn the 2 corner spots with MC2 the nickel guy.  At safety, whitehead has 1 spot locked down and it looks like pinnock is getting 1st crack at the other spot.

I'm expecting that the addition of actual TEs to the roster will help with this as well.  Defenses barely had to cover a TE last season.

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12 minutes ago, Joe W. Namath said:

1- Wilson doesnt have the yips.  He was not fully confident in the playbook which caused him to overthink out there.  Saleh explained this a few weeks back.  Now that he knows the playbook like the back of his hand, those accuracy issues will disappear.

2- Of course the wrs can get separation.  You saw this last year with Davis, moore and berrios.  And being that Garret Wilson is a total stud, separation wont be an issue for him either.

And of course the cbs can cover.  We know hall and reed can cover and sauce is a freak, stud who will no have issues blanketing receivers.

3- Wislon already has great chemistry already with Davis, Berrios and Moore.  The chemistry with the tight ends and garret wilson will come over the course of the summer.

4- Looks like Reed, Hall and Sauce will rotate btwn the 2 corner spots with MC2 the nickel guy.  At safety, whitehead has 1 spot locked down and it looks like pinnock is getting 1st crack at the other spot.

Don't agree with the bold, the ability of WR's to get separation - particularly against man coverage - was a big problem last year.

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1 hour ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

We’re not going to learn a ton, but we can learn a few things.  Here’s my list, what is yours?

1. Does Wilson show any evidence of the yips, ‘overthinking’ his throws which leads to a loss of accuracy that is much deeper than the occasional bad throw?  This is a real phenomenon that has affected New York athletes like Chuck Knoblauch, Steve Sax, and Mackey Sasser (catcher who had problems throwing the ball back to the pitcher).  

Wilson had excellent accuracy his last year in college but struggled mightily at times to make even the most basic throw as a rookie.  Personally it remains my #1 concern.

2. Can the WRs get separation?  Can the CBs cover?  Sure, we can only learn so much here without a true pass rush and with limited contact.  But we can get a feel.  Very happy to read about tight coverage from Sauce and Reed on a couple occasions yesterday.  If anything, it’s even tougher for the DBs to cover in this setting which makes the coverage stand out even more.

Mims deserves a special call out here because quite frankly he failed to gain a lot of separation in his first 2 years.  Would love to read real analysis on any improvement in his route running.  Unfortunately I don’t expect this to come from our mediocre beat writers who only seem to text a quick recap of specific plays or report on what they hear from sources.

3. Who does Wilson have chemistry with?  If I recall correctly, Berrios stood out last year which clearly carried over to the season.  Hoping to see improved chemistry with Davis, Moore & Mims, and any signs of natural chemistry with Wilson & the TEs.

4. What does the DB rotation look like?  Really curious to see who has an early edge at FS and nickel back.

 

What else?

 

I don't  think you can learn anything from OTA's except have the players been working out on their own and do they have conditioning.  

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27 minutes ago, Joe W. Namath said:

1- Wilson doesnt have the yips.  He was not fully confident in the playbook which caused him to overthink out there.  Saleh explained this a few weeks back.  Now that he knows the playbook like the back of his hand, those accuracy issues will disappear.

2- Of course the wrs can get separation.  You saw this last year with Davis, moore and berrios.  And being that Garret Wilson is a total stud, separation wont be an issue for him either.

And of course the cbs can cover.  We know hall and reed can cover and sauce is a freak, stud who will no have issues blanketing receivers.

3- Wislon already has great chemistry already with Davis, Berrios and Moore.  The chemistry with the tight ends and garret wilson will come over the course of the summer.

4- Looks like Reed, Hall and Sauce will rotate btwn the 2 corner spots with MC2 the nickel guy.  At safety, whitehead has 1 spot locked down and it looks like pinnock is getting 1st crack at the other spot.

1. There were throws that you could have made that he missed.  Listen, I'm a big believer in Zach Wilson but let's not pretend some of those accuracy issues to a wide open wide receiver are not concerning.  At the end of games that could have put the game away. 

I mean do I need to pull the video replays? 

2. Sauce was a stud .. in college.  Let's see what he can do in the pros.  The fact he was all over receivers yesterday in a mini camp setting is extremely encouraging.  I wouldn't even be worried if he wasn't but the fact that he already had some of those moments is exciting.

3. Wilson did not have great chemistry with Davis.  He also struggled with Moore at times who seemed to have a good connection with the other QBs.

4. If we see that, then that is something we'll learn from minicamp.  Safety is not Pinnock's natural position so how he performs in these practices might actually tell us how smoothly he is making the transition.

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50 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

The Wilson doubters seem to only remember early season Zach and bad Zach. The short throw accuracy thing was over a few games and not an issue at all near the end. He does not have the yips. None of these things will become clear from OTAs

To be fair, I'm not a Wilson doubter but I do have some concerns given how incredibly inaccurate some of his easy throws were.  Skipping before reaching a wide open player in the flat.  Also his accuracy rate on short throws being 10% points below average (read this stat recently).  I actually love Wilson's potential and was a big supporter taking him.  So while I also don't think he has the yips, I'd feel a lot more comfortable answering accuracy issues sooner than later.

Would you not be concerned if he continued to miss big on some easy throws in the most QB friendly environment of the offseason program?  

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I think most of Wilson's issues were related to feeling pressure so I'm not convinced OTAs will tell us much. Obviously what you really want to see is that he's mastered the offense as that should alleviate some of those issues -- but it won't be until the live bullets start flying that we'll know if he's taken the next step. He looked like a rockstar in preseason last year.

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2 hours ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

3. Wilson did not have great chemistry with Davis.  He also struggled with Moore at times who seemed to have a good connection with the other QBs.

4. If we see that, then that is something we'll learn from minicamp.  Safety is not Pinnock's natural position so how he performs in these practices might actually tell us how smoothly he is making the transition.

I think Davis was Zach's go-to receiver - the WR he tried to throw to when he needed a play or got desperate - before Davis got injured (Berrios clearly took over as that guy, later in the season).  I think a perceived lack of chemistry between the two may have been because Davis got an uncharacteristic case of the dropsies midway through his season.

If Pinnock can establish himself as a starting-caliber safety or better this year, it would be huge for this team going forward, both on-the-field and for roster planning.  The same with Mims at WR.  Both are far from locks, for different reasons, but those are two under-the-radar players I'm really rooting for this preseason.

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14 minutes ago, MykePM said:

I think Davis was Zach's go-to receiver - the WR he tried to throw to when he needed a play or got desperate - before Davis got injured (Berrios clearly took over as that guy, later in the season).  I think a perceived lack of chemistry between the two may have been because Davis got an uncharacteristic case of the dropsies midway through his season.

If Pinnock can establish himself as a starting safety or better this year, it would be huge for this team going forward, both on-the-field and for roster planning.  The same with Mims at WR.  Both are far from locks, for different reasons, but those are two under-the-radar players I'm really rooting for this preseason.

That’s probably fair.  Maybe the word timing is better than chemistry.  It felt like a couple of the drops or incompletions were due to them not exactly being in rhythm.  Didn’t see that with Berrios for example.  Huge year for Davis though, really rooting for him to come back strong.  

Agree on Pinnock.  Unfortunately at this point, he’s much further along than Mims and I’m much more optimistic about his chances.  But not too late for Mims to reset and show what he has.

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2 hours ago, nycdan said:

I'm expecting that the addition of actual TEs to the roster will help with this as well.  Defenses barely had to cover a TE last season.

Add in that maybe we will not be playing from behind on every series where the other teams D knows you have to throw the ball will help

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2 hours ago, derp said:

I think the biggest takeaway is going to be who to keep an eye on in terms of taking jobs and making an immediate impact among the guys we don't know as much about - rookies and year two guys. Pinnock opening up as the starting safety next to Whitehead, Sauce looking good early but not much from Garrett Wilson the first open practicer, those kinds of things. Younger guys have a wider range of outcomes. Sauce could be a high end starter or not take Hall's job and struggle with penalties when he's on the field, Wilson could be WR1 and have a CeeDee Lamb type rookie year or WR4 on an offense that's running a lot of 12 personnel - obviously with outcomes in the middle as well.

Wilson I think is less "yips" and more handle on the offense, at least from the perspective I've listened to from people who know football far better than I do. The gist of that is that the offense is both complex and QB friendly - I think guys need to understand the complexities before it becomes QB friendly. So it's going to be how quickly he's going through reads. Not comparing him to either of these guys but Lance did not play much last year, was not quite comfortable in the offense yet, and is not a lock to start - and it's been brought up that Rodgers was not as good his first year in the system as he was the second. I'd also throw out that Wilson's advanced stats in college weren't as good on accuracy and there are questions about handling pressure - but if he's got a better handle on the offense and has some trust that the skill talent can do things hopefully we see a step forward. The arm talent is definitely special.

Anything we can glean about what they want to do with tight ends could be interesting too. They ran a ton of 12 personnel early last year before abandoning it because they had no tight ends, then hit the position hard in FA and the draft.

Great post. In my opinion last year it was part decision-making and part mechanical issues. Getting hurt and watching the less talented Mike White run the offense efficiently feels like it was a big eye-opener for him to realize that you don't need to hold for a yolo ball every other play to succeed.

Not only did he stop turning the ball over so damn much, but it feels like he made quicker decisions and held the ball less, though I haven't looked at that data to know if that's accurate. The other part on the short throws being so far off isn't about yips, his footwork was not right on a lot of those throws, especially on throws in the flat where your feet need to be pointing in the direction you are throwing. That's correctable and I would imagine a pro staff would fix this, although i'm burned by prior regimes never doing this with Darnold.

His presser yesterday had the messaging "got to give the ball to the playmakers in the offense and let them do their job" is a good way of thinking about it. Run the ball effectively, take the open things underneath if it's there quickly, and be selective when explosive opportunities present themselves.

Also agreed on the 12 personnel last year. They got off to horrible starts to games because they wanted to run 12 and it was clear our TEs weren't good enough to do that. 12 is going to be a staple in this offense and I'll be excited to see it because if we can run the ball, it sets up everything from counter tendency breaking plays to the levels concept they like to have with a short, intermediate, and deep route ran on a play.

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3 hours ago, rangerous said:

that may be true but that's because they were on the same field together more than any of the other receivers.  let's see davis, moore, garrett, and even mims get on the field as much and then we'll see who wilson has chemistry with.  and he was doing pretty well with moore in the game during the second half.

That, and they go out to dinner and canoodle a lot.  It's a good thing. 

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3 hours ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

Why have them if we can’t learn anything?  There’s always things you can learn, even from practice.

Go back to last year and I believe Carter II was already starting ahead of Guidry, who ended the prior year strong as the starting slot.

You might be right though.  Still exciting to read the reports and imagine we are learning a little something ;).

I think (I hope???) the team is learning a lot -- about themselves, each other, the system, the playbook, etc. etc. etc. -- but I don't think we as fans and outside observers are going to learn jack.  Soon enough.

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2 hours ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

There were throws that you could have made that he missed.  Listen, I'm a big believer in Zach Wilson but let's not pretend some of those accuracy issues to a wide open wide receiver are not concerning.  At the end of games that could have put the game away. 

I mean do I need to pull the video replays? 

How many passes were him "missing wide open WR's"?  

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What can fans learn from OTA's... not much!  I guessing the players learn a lot, and the coaches get good data points.  Training camp is a slightly different story. 

- General health (who is able to participate)

- How players look in their uniforms

- General anecdotal observations (often meaningless) on athleticism.  IE zip on passes, burst, looks explosive

- Player press availability (best part - but also mostly irrelevant)

With that said, its basically a fun teaser for training camp and the season.

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1 hour ago, Jet Nut said:

How many passes were him "missing wide open WR's"?  

Since you seem to be in disbelief, I'll leave you with some data, and some examples you can look up if you are really interested.  Check out his throw to Ryan Griffin's shoes which would have iced the Tennesse game.  I'm as big a homer as they come but to pretend this guy didn't have major accuracy issues is not dealing with reality.  The why is obviously key?  

 

Zach Wilson’s ongoing accuracy issues perplex Jets: ‘He has to be better’

By Connor Hughes

Dec 14, 2021

118

It wasn’t an issue in college, nor when talent evaluators studied him further before the 2021 NFL Draft. Actually, most would tell you Zach Wilson was among the more accurate passers of all the quarterbacks available.

That early assessment seemed true when the Jets reported for the start of their offseason program, then training camp, with Wilson in tow. Seventeen Wilson-centered stories ran in The Athletic during that time about the No. 2 selection. So many focused on the ups and downs of the young quarterback’s development. Just one — off his first intrasquad scrimmage — mentioned an observational criticism of his accuracy. That’s because, aside from that day, Wilson hadn’t shown any signs of accuracy issues.

So … what the hell has happened?

“He has to be better,” coach Robert Saleh said.

Wilson’s accuracy deterioration has been among the more alarming aspects of his underwhelming rookie season. He has completed just 160 of 285 pass attempts through his nine starts. That’s a completion percentage of 56.1 — last among quarterbacks who have dropped back at least 289 times.

Wilson has completed better than 60 percent of his passes in games just twice this season, excluding New York’s loss to the Patriots on Nov. 24 when he left the game in the second quarter with a knee injury. Wilson has completed less than 55 percent of his passes three times (Carolina, Denver, New Orleans). He had the worst completion percentage of his young career on Sunday against the Saints, going 19 of 42 (45.24 percent) for 202 yards. He had a 39.4 completion percentage before the game’s final possession, when he completed four consecutive underneath passes against a prevent defense.

Pro Football Focus lists the Jets with 23 dropped passes. That plays a role in Wilson’s completion percentage. However, his adjusted completion percentage (which takes into consideration on-target passes that are not complete), per PFF, is still just 68.8. The Bears’ Justin Fields (63.8 percent) is the only quarterback with a lower percentage.

That’s not good. And it gets worse.

Wilson isn’t just not completing passes. He’s wildly missing them — a trait not correlated to Elijah Moore’s and Corey Davis’ placement on injured reserve last week. Against the Saints, Wilson bounced a bubble screen to Braxton Berrios. He short-hopped one to a wide-open Ryan Griffin in the flat. Even many of the passes Wilson did complete looked difficult — making the receivers twist and turn when they were open. The Saints game isn’t an outlier. Wilson has struggled with this all year. The league average for off-target passes is 15.8 percent, according to ESPN Stats and Information. Wilson has an off-target percentage of 25.1 — worst in the NFL.

Yes, Wilson is a rookie. Yes, bumps and bruises were to be expected as he acclimated to the NFL. Reading professional defenses isn’t easy. The speed of the game is far different. But throwing the football? That didn’t figure to be a problem.

So, again: What the hell happened?

“He’s in his own head, there’s no doubt about it,” Dan Orlovsky, the ESPN analyst and former NFL quarterback, told The Athletic. “He’s trying to be too Aaron Rodgers-ish.”

Orlovsky is arguably the top quarterback analyst in the media today. He’s watched virtually every one of Wilson’s starts. He’s seen the accuracy flaws because it’s impossible not to. In his opinion, though, it’s not just one thing leading to the inconsistencies.

Example: Against the Falcons, Wilson wanted to connect with Keelan Cole on a corner shake route. The quarterback tried to rhythmically time everything, from his hitch, to his eyes, to his shoulder, in an attempt to get the corner to jump on the flat route in a Cover 2, while also, in the same movement, hitching to Cole. The result: Wilson threw 5 yards behind Cole for an easy interception.

That’s “football 601 stuff,” Orlovsky said — meaning, it’s only for the best in the NFL. It’s far too advanced for a rookie, because Wilson forgets the basics of playing quarterback while trying to put it all together.

Orlovsky sees other times when Wilson’s footwork deteriorates. He threw a deep crosser against the Texans where, at the time he released the ball, both his feet were off the ground despite standing in a clean pocket. There’s no need for that. On the short, gimme routes, Orlovsky sees a player volleying between the 180 of trying to guide the football — Wilson seems to want to call a Zack Morris timeout, then run the ball to where his guy is and put it right in his hands — but then also throwing 100 miles per hour to players less than 8 yards away.

The cumulative result is a mishmash of quarterbacking no-nos.

“He hears the noise,” Orlovsky said. “He hears the flaws. He hears the issues. When you think about that stuff in a game — when you’re facing pressure, the pocket is collapsing — it’s going to have a negative impact. It’s like a shooter being in an extended slump. You need to start seeing some go in. It’s like he’s thinking his way through the process of throwing, and not letting his body and arm be as natural as possible.

“He’s not throwing reactionary. He’s throwing precautionary.”

The Jets desperately need to find a way to change that. This offense works. Mike White, Joe Flacco and Josh Johnson all experienced varying degrees of success playing in it this year. Wilson, though, is struggling. Perhaps that’s due in part to the number of voices in his ear.

Greg Knapp was originally Wilson’s Jets quarterbacks coach. He died in July after being hit by a driver while riding his bike. Matthew Cavanaugh replaced him, but the Jets added Wilson’s personal quarterback coach, John Beck, to the staff midway through the season. They also have Rob Calabrese — the listed quarterbacks coach.

“They need to hammer home a full-time quarterback coach,” Orlovsky said. “It doesn’t matter who. They just need to find one.”

The 3-10 Jets were officially eliminated from the playoffs on Sunday. That means these final four games — against the Dolphins, Jaguars, Bucs and Bills — are the last of Wilson’s rookie season. There hasn’t been much, other than blind faith, to make anyone believe the 22-year-old is set to break the Jets’ franchise quarterback draught. But, hope can come quickly.

Sam Darnold, the last potential savior, endured similar rookie-year struggles. Then, over the last four weeks, he threw for 931 yards, six touchdowns, one interception and had a quarterback rating of 99.1. His completion percentage his first nine starts: 55.02. In his last four: 64.1.

While the Jets won just one of those games, Darnold’s individual success sent the team into the offseason on a high. A similar strong finish for Wilson can do the same.

The best way to begin: Start completing passes.

“We’ve just got to execute,” Wilson said. “I’ve got to, obviously, be more accurate.”

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7 hours ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

 

 

What else?

 

I'm really interested to see if the DB/LBers Sherwood and Nasirildeen can come in hopefully with some weight put on and actually contribute. They could potentially be a huge + no one is accounting for if they make a big leap in year 2.

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2 hours ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

Since you seem to be in disbelief, I'll leave you with some data, and some examples you can look up if you are really interested.  Check out his throw to Ryan Griffin's shoes which would have iced the Tennesse game.  I'm as big a homer as they come but to pretend this guy didn't have major accuracy issues is not dealing with reality.  The why is obviously key?  

 

Zach Wilson’s ongoing accuracy issues perplex Jets: ‘He has to be better’

By Connor Hughes

Dec 14, 2021

118

It wasn’t an issue in college, nor when talent evaluators studied him further before the 2021 NFL Draft. Actually, most would tell you Zach Wilson was among the more accurate passers of all the quarterbacks available.

That early assessment seemed true when the Jets reported for the start of their offseason program, then training camp, with Wilson in tow. Seventeen Wilson-centered stories ran in The Athletic during that time about the No. 2 selection. So many focused on the ups and downs of the young quarterback’s development. Just one — off his first intrasquad scrimmage — mentioned an observational criticism of his accuracy. That’s because, aside from that day, Wilson hadn’t shown any signs of accuracy issues.

So … what the hell has happened?

“He has to be better,” coach Robert Saleh said.

Wilson’s accuracy deterioration has been among the more alarming aspects of his underwhelming rookie season. He has completed just 160 of 285 pass attempts through his nine starts. That’s a completion percentage of 56.1 — last among quarterbacks who have dropped back at least 289 times.

Wilson has completed better than 60 percent of his passes in games just twice this season, excluding New York’s loss to the Patriots on Nov. 24 when he left the game in the second quarter with a knee injury. Wilson has completed less than 55 percent of his passes three times (Carolina, Denver, New Orleans). He had the worst completion percentage of his young career on Sunday against the Saints, going 19 of 42 (45.24 percent) for 202 yards. He had a 39.4 completion percentage before the game’s final possession, when he completed four consecutive underneath passes against a prevent defense.

Pro Football Focus lists the Jets with 23 dropped passes. That plays a role in Wilson’s completion percentage. However, his adjusted completion percentage (which takes into consideration on-target passes that are not complete), per PFF, is still just 68.8. The Bears’ Justin Fields (63.8 percent) is the only quarterback with a lower percentage.

That’s not good. And it gets worse.

Wilson isn’t just not completing passes. He’s wildly missing them — a trait not correlated to Elijah Moore’s and Corey Davis’ placement on injured reserve last week. Against the Saints, Wilson bounced a bubble screen to Braxton Berrios. He short-hopped one to a wide-open Ryan Griffin in the flat. Even many of the passes Wilson did complete looked difficult — making the receivers twist and turn when they were open. The Saints game isn’t an outlier. Wilson has struggled with this all year. The league average for off-target passes is 15.8 percent, according to ESPN Stats and Information. Wilson has an off-target percentage of 25.1 — worst in the NFL.

Yes, Wilson is a rookie. Yes, bumps and bruises were to be expected as he acclimated to the NFL. Reading professional defenses isn’t easy. The speed of the game is far different. But throwing the football? That didn’t figure to be a problem.

So, again: What the hell happened?

“He’s in his own head, there’s no doubt about it,” Dan Orlovsky, the ESPN analyst and former NFL quarterback, told The Athletic. “He’s trying to be too Aaron Rodgers-ish.”

Orlovsky is arguably the top quarterback analyst in the media today. He’s watched virtually every one of Wilson’s starts. He’s seen the accuracy flaws because it’s impossible not to. In his opinion, though, it’s not just one thing leading to the inconsistencies.

Example: Against the Falcons, Wilson wanted to connect with Keelan Cole on a corner shake route. The quarterback tried to rhythmically time everything, from his hitch, to his eyes, to his shoulder, in an attempt to get the corner to jump on the flat route in a Cover 2, while also, in the same movement, hitching to Cole. The result: Wilson threw 5 yards behind Cole for an easy interception.

That’s “football 601 stuff,” Orlovsky said — meaning, it’s only for the best in the NFL. It’s far too advanced for a rookie, because Wilson forgets the basics of playing quarterback while trying to put it all together.

Orlovsky sees other times when Wilson’s footwork deteriorates. He threw a deep crosser against the Texans where, at the time he released the ball, both his feet were off the ground despite standing in a clean pocket. There’s no need for that. On the short, gimme routes, Orlovsky sees a player volleying between the 180 of trying to guide the football — Wilson seems to want to call a Zack Morris timeout, then run the ball to where his guy is and put it right in his hands — but then also throwing 100 miles per hour to players less than 8 yards away.

The cumulative result is a mishmash of quarterbacking no-nos.

“He hears the noise,” Orlovsky said. “He hears the flaws. He hears the issues. When you think about that stuff in a game — when you’re facing pressure, the pocket is collapsing — it’s going to have a negative impact. It’s like a shooter being in an extended slump. You need to start seeing some go in. It’s like he’s thinking his way through the process of throwing, and not letting his body and arm be as natural as possible.

“He’s not throwing reactionary. He’s throwing precautionary.”

The Jets desperately need to find a way to change that. This offense works. Mike White, Joe Flacco and Josh Johnson all experienced varying degrees of success playing in it this year. Wilson, though, is struggling. Perhaps that’s due in part to the number of voices in his ear.

Greg Knapp was originally Wilson’s Jets quarterbacks coach. He died in July after being hit by a driver while riding his bike. Matthew Cavanaugh replaced him, but the Jets added Wilson’s personal quarterback coach, John Beck, to the staff midway through the season. They also have Rob Calabrese — the listed quarterbacks coach.

“They need to hammer home a full-time quarterback coach,” Orlovsky said. “It doesn’t matter who. They just need to find one.”

The 3-10 Jets were officially eliminated from the playoffs on Sunday. That means these final four games — against the Dolphins, Jaguars, Bucs and Bills — are the last of Wilson’s rookie season. There hasn’t been much, other than blind faith, to make anyone believe the 22-year-old is set to break the Jets’ franchise quarterback draught. But, hope can come quickly.

Sam Darnold, the last potential savior, endured similar rookie-year struggles. Then, over the last four weeks, he threw for 931 yards, six touchdowns, one interception and had a quarterback rating of 99.1. His completion percentage his first nine starts: 55.02. In his last four: 64.1.

While the Jets won just one of those games, Darnold’s individual success sent the team into the offseason on a high. A similar strong finish for Wilson can do the same.

The best way to begin: Start completing passes.

“We’ve just got to execute,” Wilson said. “I’ve got to, obviously, be more accurate.”

How many is that?  How many 100 mph passes did he throw 8 yards?  How many bad passes that skipped did he throw after his return?   How many passes to wide open WRs did we see?  
He was a struggling rookie.  No shlt, we all saw it.  Don’t oversell wide open WRs.  We hardly put a full set of NFL receivers on the field
 

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FWIW - Regarding accuracy - Zach looked great in training camp and preseason last year - with the exception of one day. 

Expect to see the same this year.  The hope is when the real games start his completion percentage, and on target throws are average or above league average.  They should be with all of the easy throws in this system.

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11 hours ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

To be fair, I'm not a Wilson doubter but I do have some concerns given how incredibly inaccurate some of his easy throws were.  Skipping before reaching a wide open player in the flat.  Also his accuracy rate on short throws being 10% points below average (read this stat recently).  I actually love Wilson's potential and was a big supporter taking him.  So while I also don't think he has the yips, I'd feel a lot more comfortable answering accuracy issues sooner than later.

Would you not be concerned if he continued to miss big on some easy throws in the most QB friendly environment of the offseason program?  

I'm on board with this.  I definitely had some "are you kidding me" moments.  I'm choosing to believe it was caused by a combination of nerves, the speed of the game, and not knowing the playbook well enough to act quickly and instinctively (positive).  He did get better later in the season.  He now has 2 pass catching TE's and a monster blocking TE that should help ease some of the stress and ill-timed erratic reactions.  As a Jets fan, I choose to have a positive outlook for him.  I've wallowed in misery for so many years, if he craps out, I'll be numb to it anyway.

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I think CBs going up against WRs on one-on-one is very telling. That’s mostly it. We know Elijah Moore is good. Reed locking him is somewhat positive sign for the team. But can point to Moore not being ready to be that number 1 guy since we know Reed is more of a high end #2 CB.

Sauce going against Wilson is not going to tell us much because we haven't seen either play at the NFL level. But if we hear Wilson tearing Reed up or Sauce locking down Davis and Moore, that’s a positive. Sauce going against Davis will be a good reference point. Davis is not a number 1 guy, so Sauce needs to be locking him up all day.

Long story short, watching WRs going up against Reed and CBs going up against Davis are good reference points. 

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