Opening Defensive Possessions

[Lith]

Been doing some poking around on Pro Football Reference looking at our opening defensive possessions during the Saleh era.  20 games, we have allowed points on 13 opening possessions (65%).   

League average is 38.7%.  65% is worst in the league.  We have allowed 9 TDs (45%), tied for worst in the league with Atlanta.  League average is 24.4%.

But it gets even worse.  First 3 games of the Saleh era, we did not allow points on any opening possessions, which means over the last 17 games, we have allowed 9 TDs (52.9%) almost 2.2x league average.  And allowed points 13 times (76.5%) almost double league average.

Our offense, on the other hand, has been right around league average -- points about 35% of the time and TDs about 25%.

2nd drives are similar.  About league average on offense.  2nd worst allowing points and 3rd in TDs allowed.  

Only explanations I can come up with is either we are not ready to play early, or more likley other teams know what we are going to do defensively and can script opening sequences to gash us.  We have to start better.  We can't keep falling behind early -- it is just so damn frustrating every week we are playing from behind.  

Falling behind with a banged up OL is a recipe for disaster.  We need to be better and that is on Saleh and Ulbrich.  I have been a Saleh supporter most of his tenure, but yesterday, I crossed over to the dark side.

[T0mShane]

I don’t think it’s nothing that the supposedly fiery HC is out running the stairs before every game. The team always starts off flat as a pancake. 

[dbatesman]

The Jets have a long history of dysfunction and failure, but the numbers on this regime are really something.

[Augustiniak]

4 minutes ago, Lith said:

Been doing some poking around on Pro Football Reference looking at our opening defensive possessions during the Saleh era.  20 games, we have allowed points on 13 opening possessions (65%).   

League average is 38.7%.  65% is worst in the league.  We have allowed 9 TDs (45%), tied for worst in the league with Atlanta.  League average is 24.4%.

But it gets even worse.  First 3 games of the Saleh era, we did not allow points on any opening possessions, which means over the last 17 games, we have allowed 9 TDs (52.9%) almost 2.2x league average.  And allowed points 13 times (76.5%) almost double league average.

Our offense, on the other hand, has been right around league average -- points about 35% of the time and TDs about 25%.

2nd drives are similar.  About league average on offense.  2nd worst allowing points and 3rd in TDs allowed.  

Only explanations I can come up with is either we are not ready to play early, or more likley other teams know what we are going to do defensively and can script opening sequences to gash us.  We have to start better.  We can't keep falling behind early -- it is just so damn frustrating every week we are playing from behind.  

Falling behind with a banged up OL is a recipe for disaster.  We need to be better and that is on Saleh and Ulbrich.  I have been a Saleh supporter most of his tenure, but yesterday, I crossed over to the dark side.

This is the best example of how bad the coaches are.  This is not the players, it’s the coaches. They are never prepared.  Even in the eagles preseason game they gave up a long td drive to start.  

[doublel9]

League average is 38.7%. 65% is worst in the league. We have allowed 9 TDs (45%), tied for worst in the league with Atlanta. League average is 24.4

 

[Barry McCockinner]

Does it get any better after the opening possession? Because it seems like we're just getting steamrolled every possession to me. This defense is horrifically bad and not being able to generate a pass rush against the Bengals was alarming.

[Matt39]

Is the staff just not putting in work? Are all of these slogans, and it will “click” just coverage for a coaching staff taking the Johnson’s money and not doing much else? I honestly don’t even know what else it could be at this point. There’s enough evidence that something is really rotten here. The defense being this bad is unbelievable. I’d like to hear the rationale from Douglas and the Jets of why they preferred Saleh to Art Smith.

[Spoot-Face]

Fire everyone but LaFleur and Boyer

[OilfieldJet]

10 minutes ago, Lith said:

Been doing some poking around on Pro Football Reference looking at our opening defensive possessions during the Saleh era.  20 games, we have allowed points on 13 opening possessions (65%).   

League average is 38.7%.  65% is worst in the league.  We have allowed 9 TDs (45%), tied for worst in the league with Atlanta.  League average is 24.4%.

But it gets even worse.  First 3 games of the Saleh era, we did not allow points on any opening possessions, which means over the last 17 games, we have allowed 9 TDs (52.9%) almost 2.2x league average.  And allowed points 13 times (76.5%) almost double league average.

Our offense, on the other hand, has been right around league average -- points about 35% of the time and TDs about 25%.

2nd drives are similar.  About league average on offense.  2nd worst allowing points and 3rd in TDs allowed.  

Only explanations I can come up with is either we are not ready to play early, or more likley other teams know what we are going to do defensively and can script opening sequences to gash us.  We have to start better.  We can't keep falling behind early -- it is just so damn frustrating every week we are playing from behind.  

Falling behind with a banged up OL is a recipe for disaster.  We need to be better and that is on Saleh and Ulbrich.  I have been a Saleh supporter most of his tenure, but yesterday, I crossed over to the dark side.

Lol, now, if you want to be depressed, do one titled: "Opening Offensive Processions".

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

Great post!  I’ve been beating this drum for awhile.  Ulbrich is utterly lost and it is becoming clear that Saleh is lost with him, maybe even driving the bus or simply asleep while Ulbrich mans the wheel.

[HawkeyeJet]

I was looking at similar stuff yesterday.  It’s incredibly alarming.  They either need to do some serious self scouting on their tendencies or need to change how they approach game planning.   They actually seem adept enough at adjusting in game, but they are constantly in double digit deficits after a few drives because all units come out and fail to start the game.

[Augustiniak]

6 minutes ago, HawkeyeJet said:

I was looking at similar stuff yesterday.  It’s incredibly alarming.  They either need to do some serious self scouting on their tendencies or need to change how they approach game planning.   They actually seem adept enough at adjusting in game, but they are constantly in double digit deficits after a few drives because all units come out and fail to start the game.

Despite the coach’s rhetoric the staff does not have a confident attack mentality.  It’s a bend but don’t break, let’s keep the score close and win points with the media and fans.  They do not come out like their jobs depend on it.  It’s like a tennis player who is content to lose 6-4 6-4.  This team needs to play like nadal.

[peekskill68]

3 minutes ago, HawkeyeJet said:

I was looking at similar stuff yesterday.  It’s incredibly alarming.  They either need to do some serious self scouting on their tendencies or need to change how they approach game planning.   They actually seem adept enough at adjusting in game, but they are constantly in double digit deficits after a few drives because all units come out and fail to start the game.

I think that's the point.  There's next to no deception or creativity.  They are relying on superior high RAS athletes to make plays and are getting carved up.  And after getting carved up they get frustrated and make bonehead roughing the passer plays...

[Larz]

Last year’s defense was historically bad. This year they allowed a TD on 2 out of 3 which is 66%
 

wait 

[oatmeal]

20 minutes ago, Lith said:

Been doing some poking around on Pro Football Reference looking at our opening defensive possessions during the Saleh era.  20 games, we have allowed points on 13 opening possessions (65%).   

League average is 38.7%.  65% is worst in the league.  We have allowed 9 TDs (45%), tied for worst in the league with Atlanta.  League average is 24.4%.

But it gets even worse.  First 3 games of the Saleh era, we did not allow points on any opening possessions, which means over the last 17 games, we have allowed 9 TDs (52.9%) almost 2.2x league average.  And allowed points 13 times (76.5%) almost double league average.

Our offense, on the other hand, has been right around league average -- points about 35% of the time and TDs about 25%.

2nd drives are similar.  About league average on offense.  2nd worst allowing points and 3rd in TDs allowed.  

Only explanations I can come up with is either we are not ready to play early, or more likley other teams know what we are going to do defensively and can script opening sequences to gash us.  We have to start better.  We can't keep falling behind early -- it is just so damn frustrating every week we are playing from behind.  

Falling behind with a banged up OL is a recipe for disaster.  We need to be better and that is on Saleh and Ulbrich.  I have been a Saleh supporter most of his tenure, but yesterday, I crossed over to the dark side.

Welcome *evil laugh* hahahahaha 

 

we have refreshments over in the Fire Saleh thread, just take your shoes off before entering the room

thank you ? 

[Lith]

23 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Does it get any better after the opening possession? Because it seems like we're just getting steamrolled every possession to me. This defense is horrifically bad and not being able to generate a pass rush against the Bengals was alarming.

As I mentioned above -- 2nd possession is similar to first.  It gets marginally better as the game wears on.  We give up points on 61% of drives during first 3 possessions and about 42% the rest of the way (still well below average) 

I wonder how much of that is us playing better or just game situation.  You have a double digit lead against us.  You don't fear our offense.  Be conservative, don't turn the ball over, give us a long field and win the game 27-12.

[kevinc855]

dont worry guys....everything is fine....IT JUST HASNT CLICKED YET

[Lith]

4 minutes ago, oatmeal said:

Welcome *evil laugh* hahahahaha 

 

we have refreshments over in the Fire Saleh thread, just take your shoes off before entering the room

thank you ? 

Happens every year.  I follow FA, the draft.  Get excited over some of the talent upgrades.  During the offseason, I convince myself that I am going to see a difference on the field.  I always find reason for optimism in spring and summer.  Then as the season gets closer, I start to doubt my optimism.  Usually, by the end of September I cross over. 

And it just happened again.  

[SickJetFan]

8 minutes ago, Lith said:

As I mentioned above -- 2nd possession is similar to first.  It gets marginally better as the game wears on.  We give up points on 61% of drives during first 3 possessions and about 42% The rest of the way (still below average) 

I wonder how much of that is us playing better or just game situation.  You have a double digit lead against us.  You don't fear our offense.  Be conservative, don't turn the ball over, give us a long field and win the game 27-12.

well actually..once other teams have the lead they can let off the gas a bit and do more runs and screens so 42% may be misleading

[SickJetFan]

14 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

Despite the coach’s rhetoric the staff does not have a confident attack mentality.  It’s a bend but don’t break, let’s keep the score close and win points with the media and fans.  They do not come out like their jobs depend on it.  It’s like a tennis player who is content to lose 6-4 6-4.  This team needs to play like nadal.

admittedly I know little about tennis so the analogy lost on me but sounds right

[BCJet]

36 minutes ago, Lith said:

Been doing some poking around on Pro Football Reference looking at our opening defensive possessions during the Saleh era.  20 games, we have allowed points on 13 opening possessions (65%).   

League average is 38.7%.  65% is worst in the league.  We have allowed 9 TDs (45%), tied for worst in the league with Atlanta.  League average is 24.4%.

But it gets even worse.  First 3 games of the Saleh era, we did not allow points on any opening possessions, which means over the last 17 games, we have allowed 9 TDs (52.9%) almost 2.2x league average.  And allowed points 13 times (76.5%) almost double league average.

Our offense, on the other hand, has been right around league average -- points about 35% of the time and TDs about 25%.

2nd drives are similar.  About league average on offense.  2nd worst allowing points and 3rd in TDs allowed.  

Only explanations I can come up with is either we are not ready to play early, or more likley other teams know what we are going to do defensively and can script opening sequences to gash us.  We have to start better.  We can't keep falling behind early -- it is just so damn frustrating every week we are playing from behind.  

Falling behind with a banged up OL is a recipe for disaster.  We need to be better and that is on Saleh and Ulbrich.  I have been a Saleh supporter most of his tenure, but yesterday, I crossed over to the dark side.

I definitely think it is a lack of disguising what we do and/or changing it up.  What other teams literally tell the whole league what they are running and specifically fill out the roster with players like our DL who only do 1 thing?

This stat (great find btw) is so alarming and indicative of a coaching staff that simply doesnt get it.  Even QW, who seems like a pretty soft spoken guy, went ballistic yesterday at how poor our defensive plan was.  Taking him out of the game for someone like Nathan Shepard is beyond comprehension and shows that in addition to not being able to change up their scheme or disguise it whatsoever, the staff also doesnt understand personnel usage.

[LIJetsFan]

26 minutes ago, HawkeyeJet said:

I was looking at similar stuff yesterday.  It’s incredibly alarming.  They either need to do some serious self scouting on their tendencies or need to change how they approach game planning.   They actually seem adept enough at adjusting in game, but they are constantly in double digit deficits after a few drives because all units come out and fail to start the game.

Are they adjusting in game or are the other teams just on cruise control with their lead? 

[Matt39]

 

[sourceworx]

The head coach is a glorified cheerleader whose crowning achievement was that Joey Bosa was his edge rusher.

[Irish Jet]

We have a coach unironically basing his philosophy on vibes and people are surprised at the results?

[ncjetman]

dont worry guys....everything is fine....IT JUST HASNT CLICKED YET

and for you it never will


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[Beerfish]

Some fundamental jets D philosophies i have hated since day one.

- Over rotation on the Dline.  The best players do not play enough.

- Ungodly wide splits on the dline, very easy to run against especially when your lbs are too far back and are also lousy players, also your outside rushers are farther from the QB to start.

- Constantly confused secondary.  

Also almost no adjustments.  The D is the same all the time, I'd suggest a lot more blitzing but the one time we blitzed last game we got toasted for a long td.