Aaron Rodgers to the Jets rumor: Merged

[32EBoozer]

6 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

A second rounder next year is worth a third this year.  That’s how much the draft experts discount future picks .. by 1 round.  

So a 2023 mid second and for now let’s call it an equivalent 2023 ‘mid’ third rounder for Aaron Rodgers for 2 years.

I’m not losing sleep over that if there’s corresponding protection should Rodgers not play a 2nd year..  

But in return the Jets get important cap protection …. GB eats some of the bonus money and/or Rodgers restructures his contract to be more Jets friendly for a smoother transition post Rodgers.

Any condition for a first would have to mean a very successful ‘team’ season and therefore translate to a low first round pick (25-32 range).  In today’s draft value, that is worth a late 2nd round pick.

——————————————————————-

Here’s the breakdown of what the Jets give up in today’s draft values (2024 pick discounted by 1 full round)

1 year Rodgers run but falls short of performance trigger:  2023 mid 2nd rounder + 2023 mid 3rd rounder - (TBD GB pick for early retirement)

1 year Rodgers run but achieves performance trigger:  2023 mid 2nd rounder + 2023 late 2nd rounder - (TBD GB pick for early retirement)

2 year Rodgers run; falls short of 2023 performance trigger:  2023 mid 2nd rounder + 2023 mid 3rd rounder

2 year Rodgers run; achieves 2023 performance trigger:  2023 mid 2nd rounder + 2023 late 2nd rounder
 

According to the (Rich Hill) trade value chart (converting the 2 2nd round picks above), the Jets would be trading the equivalent of a late 2023 first rounder pick = roughly #22 pick for a 2 year Aaron Rodgers run with the first year achieving whatever performance trigger they agree to.   Let’s call it a Home Divisional Playoff game..

Considering what the Broncos, Browns, and Carolina just gave up (all for risky bets in their own right), I’d call that SMART football by JD.

 

I think you have some errors in your post. See RED highlights

[Augustiniak]

10 minutes ago, Tranquilo said:

If he's a year one rental, it'd really be just a 2nd rounder

They’d still owe a pick next year, and may not get one back. 

[slats]

9 hours ago, JETS SB said:

 

How can anyone possibly believe that anyone actually has some true information on this? JD as always, is being super tight-lipped about it, and the Packers GM has said that he’s been sworn to secrecy (no doubt by JD). It’ll happen when it happens. I’m in no rush, but the league may put a little pressure on them so they can set the schedule. 

[slimjasi]

3 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

sounds like somebody would rather have the next Dee Milliner than a HOF quarterback

Can I ask you something - As of 03/28/2023, what should the Jets plan be at QB? Who is your QB1 next year?

 

[Tranquilo]

2 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

They’d still owe a pick next year, and may not get one back. 

They'd only not get one back if he plays a 2nd year (so it wouldn't be a one year rental)

[Lith]

23 minutes ago, IndianaJet said:

My only concern about this deal is not the amount of compensation, but the fact that it seems like Woody and the FO did not get a firm commitment from Rodgers to play in 2024.  My thought was that was a big reason why they all went out to meet him in Cali and that they got that commitment from him then.  If they did, would they really be holding this deal up on the idea that they should get something back if he retires after 2023?

I'm not a fan of the move to Rodgers if he's not committed to 2024 as well.  Woody and the FO went from a "rebuild to create sustainable success" to an all in push on a one year shot?

Does it mean they did not get a firm commitment from AR for 24, or they just trying to protect themselves over a contingency that is out of their control?  

[Augustiniak]

2 minutes ago, Tranquilo said:

They'd only not get one back if he plays a 2nd year (so it wouldn't be a one year rental)

The way it’s worded, if AARon plays one year, the jets would have traded a 2nd this year and a 4th next year, though the jets are allegedly trying to get a pick back next year in return.  But if they don’t, it seems possible they would have traded a 2nd this year and a 4th next year for one year of play.  

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

6 minutes ago, 32EBoozer said:

I think you have some errors in your post. See RED highlights

I’m converting the future 2024 pick into 2023 value which is 1 round.  

[Augustiniak]

Just now, Lith said:

Does it mean they did not get a firm commitment from AR, or they just trying to protect themselves over a contingency that is out of their control?  

I think with someone like him you need protection in case he goes into the darkness and never returns. 

[NIGHT STALKER]

6 minutes ago, slats said:

How can anyone possibly believe that anyone actually has some true information on this? JD as always, is being super tight-lipped about it, and the Packers GM has said that he’s been sworn to secrecy (no doubt by JD). It’ll happen when it happens. I’m in no rush, but the league may put a little pressure on them so they can set the schedule. 

Excellent point about the schedule.  Never thought about that.

[ptisme]

1 hour ago, oatmeal said:

I agree he will do this to us next year or maybe just to further spite you guys maybe he tells us early? But tbh I’m not the type to roll in mud and not expect to get dirty 

Besides tell Gluty it’s time to move on:

Joe Douglas: “That would negotiating in bad faith” - these comments were a direct shot at the packers. They look terrible 

Yeah I’m not seeing either side looking terrible but you are entitled to your opinion

[Tranquilo]

4 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

The way it’s worded, if AARon plays one year, the jets would have traded a 2nd this year and a 4th next year, though the jets are allegedly trying to get a pick back next year in return.  But if they don’t, it seems possible they would have traded a 2nd this year and a 4th next year for one year of play.  

They are trading two picks, whether he plays one year or not, but if he retires, they get a pick back. If he comes back the 2nd year, they don't get a pick back. So in essence, they wouldn't be trading 2 picks for no picks if he's a one year rental.

[nycdan]

I hate giving up premium picks as much as anyone but let me ask you all this...

Is there anyone we can draft at 42 that would make as much of a difference to the upcoming season as Rodgers?  We have the adjacent picks now so if we are targeting JMS, we should still get him.  Beyond that, does a rookie Safety or DT do as much as one of the five best QBs to ever play the game who is one year removed from back-to-back MVPs?  

It's a gamble, but probably one of the best in terms of risk-reward I've ever seen us make.  I was all about not giving up #13, but I can't see how anyone would legitimately object to trading #42 (or #43 but not both) in this case.  Sounds like we aren't even sending Davis back.  This team will be as stacked around the QB as any team in the league.  You could argue a position unit here and there, but top-to-bottom, I like our roster a lot and plugging a true QB1 in will make for some good football.

Or we can enjoy the thrill of drafting back-to-back players in the 2nd round and looking forward to a season of Wilson, or Wentz, or Bridgewater starting as our QB.

[dbatesman]

15 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

So I guess what you are getting at here is that you are unhappy with the proposed (supposedly) compensation. What do you feel is fair and equal compensation for the Jets to give for one Aaron Rodgers?

What I’m getting at is that second-round picks are quite valuable, actually, and arguing that Devin Smith and Elijah Moore are evidence contra is proof positive that this situation has given this entire website brain parasites.

[Augustiniak]

1 minute ago, Tranquilo said:

They are trading two picks, whether he plays one year or not, but if he retires, they get a pick back. If he comes back the 2nd year, they don't get a pick back. So in essence, they wouldn't be trading 2 picks for no picks if he's a one year rental.

I even think giving up a 2nd this year and swapping picks next year isn’t worth one year.  This has to be at least 2 yrs to be worth it. 

[Joe W. Namath]

Favre went for a 3rd.  Rodgers goes for a 3rd.  This deal has been done before.

Giving anymore then a 3rd is foolish.

[Trotter]

3 minutes ago, NIGHT STALKER said:

Excellent point about the schedule.  Never thought about that.

Funny how from a league perspective - there is prob more pressure from a schedule perspective than draft compensation - meaning more important to the league to ensure they know Rodgers is a Jet so they plan the primetime games properly.

My guess is they will build the schedule under the assumption this is done if it is not resolved by then - but I would expect it to be.

At a minimum, Jets/Chiefs will be primetime even if the trade is not done by then cause they simply have to go with the assumption of Rodgers/Mahommes.

But then I guess if they do not schedule it that way - they can always flex.

[ptisme]

1 hour ago, usanyj said:

It would also be interesting to see what the jets would get back if Rodgers does not play next year.  I would think it would have to be decent, the packers throwing the jets a 7th in 2025 shouldn't cut it.

If Rodgers retires jets keep their draft Capitol next year.    Done move on

[slimjasi]

2 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

What I’m getting at is that second-round picks are quite valuable, actually, and arguing that Devin Smith and Elijah Moore are evidence contra is proof positive that this situation has given this entire website brain parasites.

Of course they are valuable. I don't think anyone really thinks they aren't valuable. Bringing up Devin Smith is done for cheap laughs. 

What is also valuable is having a decent QB. Hence, I'm still dying to know what your big plan is at QB. You don't seem to want to trade a second round pick or two for Rodgers, who instantly gives us top 5 SB odds. Ok, maybe he's washed. I'm just wondering - what do you actually want to do at QB next year? 

[Alka]

16 minutes ago, slats said:

How can anyone possibly believe that anyone actually has some true information on this? JD as always, is being super tight-lipped about it, and the Packers GM has said that he’s been sworn to secrecy (no doubt by JD). It’ll happen when it happens. I’m in no rush, but the league may put a little pressure on them so they can set the schedule. 

I guess I'm an amazing negotiator after all!  My thread with what I would mediate as a broker between Green Bay and the Jets included at  worst 2 2-nd round draft picks, one for 2024 and one for 2025, and one of those 2nd round draft picks would escalate to a 1st round pick if the playoffs were involved.  I also stated that if the one draft pick was a 1st rounder, than the next years 2nd rounder would drop to the 3rd round.

Pretty much what is being discussed right now,  with minor differences, although I'm sure the escalation price is more than just making the playoffs.

I'm not necessarily just responding to you Slats, but to everyone who responded to my thread before it got merged.  Thank you.

[Scott Dierking]

6 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

What I’m getting at is that second-round picks are quite valuable, actually, and arguing that Devin Smith and Elijah Moore are evidence contra is proof positive that this situation has given this entire website brain parasites.

They certainly are, even if they are fodder for demonstrating poor choices in the past. 

But so are qbs that at least show above average competence, and possibly more. And the Jets do not have anything even resembling that. My particular take is that with a roster seemingly set for flight in a number of areas, that maybe this is an investment worth making. No guarantees on either side of the ledger here.

I am unsure which character we are here:

[JetPotato]

42 minutes ago, Claymation said:

I guess the Packers leaked this info.

Yup. Bad day for the Pack yesterday, PR wise. They're trying to turn the narrative around that it's actually the Jets holding things up with the "safety net if Rodgers play 1 year" thing. While I'm sure that's a thing, this new info reaks of desperation on their part. 

[sciond]

13 minutes ago, nycdan said:

I hate giving up premium picks as much as anyone but let me ask you all this...

Is there anyone we can draft at 42 that would make as much of a difference to the upcoming season as Rodgers?  We have the adjacent picks now so if we are targeting JMS, we should still get him.  Beyond that, does a rookie Safety or DT do as much as one of the five best QBs to ever play the game who is one year removed from back-to-back MVPs?  

It's a gamble, but probably one of the best in terms of risk-reward I've ever seen us make.  I was all about not giving up #13, but I can't see how anyone would legitimately object to trading #42 (or #43 but not both) in this case.  Sounds like we aren't even sending Davis back.  This team will be as stacked around the QB as any team in the league.  You could argue a position unit here and there, but top-to-bottom, I like our roster a lot and plugging a true QB1 in will make for some good football.

Or we can enjoy the thrill of drafting back-to-back players in the 2nd round and looking forward to a season of Wilson, or Wentz, or Bridgewater starting as our QB.

Breece was 35 a few picks away

if there was someone like him we could trade the 2 and move up and grab them

or they may slide a few more down....

so the answer is yes

[C Mart]

1 hour ago, Scott Dierking said:

We might miss out on Elijiah Moore or Denzel Mims.

or Ryan Yarbough, Justin Mccariens, Devin Smith, Jace Amaro, Stephen Hill, Vlad Duchasse, Viktor Hobson, Jon McGraw

[RutgersJetFan]

1 hour ago, Scott Dierking said:

We might miss out on Elijiah Moore or Denzel Mims.

We might!

[Rhg1084]

55 minutes ago, slats said:

How can anyone possibly believe that anyone actually has some true information on this? JD as always, is being super tight-lipped about it, and the Packers GM has said that he’s been sworn to secrecy (no doubt by JD). It’ll happen when it happens. I’m in no rush, but the league may put a little pressure on them so they can set the schedule. 

Packers side are leaking alot of stuff. They already came out and said they weren’t getting a 1 lol

[RutgersJetFan]

1 hour ago, slimjasi said:

Oh no, what will we do without Devin Smith?!!!?!?

*intense eye roll 

The Jets might as well give them a first rounder and call it a day since they **** pretty much all of those up too.

[Claymation]

1 hour ago, The Crusher said:

JD be like…

What?

[Rhg1084]

42 minutes ago, Joe W. Namath said:

Favre went for a 3rd.  Rodgers goes for a 3rd.  This deal has been done before.

Giving anymore than a 3rd is foolish.

Except we don’t have a 3rd

[Phillyjet]

seems like the trade parameters are coming into focus now.  This will get done in the next couple of weeks before the draft.  I don't see this as a draft-day deal at all.  

1) Conditional pick in 2024:  Folks are saying 2nd round, elevating to 1 on parameters.  If JD pushes hard enough, maybe it's a conditional 3rd round pick.  

2) 2023 pick.  Anywhere from a 4th round pick, swap our 2nd for their 3rd (equivalent of a 3rd round pick), or our 2nd round pick.  

Not sure what to make of the Packers giving a pick back in 2025 if Rodgers retires after next year.  Kind of a gimmick, but probably makes more sense if JD has to give up the 2 outright this year.  

The other element here is how and if Rodgers redoes his deal after coming here to permit the Jets cap flexibility in 2024 and 2025 if he retires in 2024, or alternatively in 2025 and 2026 if he plays a second year.  That will be the interesting story as the summer approaches.   Would be awesome if we could reduce the out cap hits by converting bonuses to salary or roster bonuses outright.  Would free us from cap issues down the road.

[Bobby816]

Im emotionally drained over this.

[IndianaJet]

One of my new favorite things is going onto some of these tweets and seeing Packer fans ideas of a "fair trade".

This might be the most ridiculous I've seen in a while:

 

 

[slats]

2 minutes ago, Rhg1084 said:

Packers side are leaking alot of stuff. They already came out and said they weren’t getting a 1 lol

About time they admit it. I’ve known it for months. 

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

58 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

I’m converting the future 2024 pick into 2023 value which is 1 round.  

@Boozer32
 

A future first round pick is not worth a current first round pick just like a future $20 bill is not worth a current $20 bill.

A late 2024 first round pick is roughly equivalent to a late 2023 second round pick according to draft experts.  It’s approximately a 1 round discount.

Make sense?  Disagree?  Not my methodology..

 

——————————————————-

 

“Additionally, Hill notes that there is no "perfect value" for future draft picks. They are often discounted in future trades, as teams view current assets as more valuable than future assets. Hill explains that the discount on those picks often amounts to about one round. As such, a future second-round pick would be viewed as roughly the same as a current third-round pick.”

[C Mart]

7 minutes ago, Rhg1084 said:

Packers side are leaking alot of stuff. They already came out and said they weren’t getting a 1 lol

GB side of things via The Athletic:

By Matt Schneidman

Mar 27, 2023

Gutekunst said getting a first-round pick in return for Rodgers — the Jets currently own the No. 13 pick — is not a necessity. However, he said getting “premier picks” for a “premier player” is important. The Jets recently acquired a second-round pick (No. 42) from the Browns in exchange for wide receiver Elijah Moore and a third-round pick, so the Jets now own picks 42 and 43 in the second round. According to the Jimmy Johnson draft value chart, the two picks combined are of equal value to the No. 17 pick. So not quite No. 13, but not far off.

Gutekunst all but said he wants the trade finalized before the first round of the NFL Draft on April 27. He was asked Monday if whatever picks he gets in return for Rodgers need to be in the 2023 draft or if he can afford to wait for 2024 draft capital.

“I think the sooner the better,” Gutekunst said while adding he’s willing to wait “as long as it takes” to make a deal he deems fitting. “Certainly if we get beyond the draft, then everything changes, compensation changes. That would be a whole different scenario, but hopefully, we can get this done soon.”

Gutekunst said the ball is in the Jets’ court. New York seems to have the leverage before the draft since the Packers want draft picks they can use next month to add to the talent surrounding 24-year-old quarterback Jordan Love, helping him to succeed right away. After the draft, the next hard deadline is June 1. If a trade happens before that date, the Packers take on a dead money hit for Rodgers of about $40.3 million. If he’s traded after June 1, about $15.8 million of that goes on 2023 and the rest on 2024. The longer this drags out, if it goes into the summer, the more desperate it would seem the Jets get as they go deeper into the offseason without the quarterback they intend to start Week 1.

But make no mistake: Both teams want this done so they can simply move on.