Aaron Rodgers to the Jets rumor: Merged

[RutgersJetFan]

47 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

What I’m getting at is that second-round picks are quite valuable, actually, and arguing that Devin Smith and Elijah Moore are evidence contra is proof positive that this situation has given this entire website brain parasites.

The Jets once drafted Vernon Gholston and Leonard Williams at 6, thus the 6th overall pick has no value.

[Jet Nut]

1 hour ago, Trotter said:

At least 10 pages on why losing the SB and preserving the pick in 2024 will be the right move.

Can’t be mortgaging the future you know. 

[32EBoozer]

42 minutes ago, nycdan said:

I hate giving up premium picks as much as anyone but let me ask you all this...

Is there anyone we can draft at 42 that would make as much of a difference to the upcoming season as Rodgers?  We have the adjacent picks now so if we are targeting JMS, we should still get him.  Beyond that, does a rookie Safety or DT do as much as one of the five best QBs to ever play the game who is one year removed from back-to-back MVPs?  

It's a gamble, but probably one of the best in terms of risk-reward I've ever seen us make.  I was all about not giving up #13, but I can't see how anyone would legitimately object to trading #42 (or #43 but not both) in this case.  Sounds like we aren't even sending Davis back.  This team will be as stacked around the QB as any team in the league.  You could argue a position unit here and there, but top-to-bottom, I like our roster a lot and plugging a true QB1 in will make for some good football.

Or we can enjoy the thrill of drafting back-to-back players in the 2nd round and looking forward to a season of Wilson, or Wentz, or Bridgewater starting as our QB.

I believe the whole argument is this: If we are going to take on that Albatross Rodgers contract for a 1 (maybe 2) year shot at the title, then we will require the 2023 #13; 42; 43 to make us a team that can make a DEEP Playoff run.

It has nothing to do with Rodgers value equaling 2-2nd round picks. It's all about making the most of this 1 year, maybe 2, window!

[slats]

2 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

@Boozer32
 

A future first round pick is not worth a current first round pick just like a future $20 bill is not worth a current $20 bill.

A late 2024 first round pick is roughly equivalent to a late 2023 second round pick according to draft experts.  It’s approximately a 1 round discount.

Make sense?  Disagree?  Not my methodology..

This is the league’s general philosophy, although Douglas seems to place a lot of value on future picks (after all, that’s what he got for the Prez and Darnold). I can see him driving a hard bargain on that front, especially in wanting a consolation pick if Rodgers doesn’t last two years. 
 
I think if that’s what he wants, he’ll get it. Again, the Packers have to trade the player and they have no other options. 

[Scott Dierking]

4 minutes ago, RutgersJetFan said:

The Jets once drafted Vernon Gholston and Leonard Williams at 6, thus the 6th overall pick has no value.

So, draft picks are an inexact science?

[nycdan]

Just now, 32EBoozer said:

I believe the whole argument is this: If we are going to take on that Albatross Rodgers contract for a 1 (maybe 2) year shot at the title, then we will require the 2023 #13; 42; 43 to make us a team that can make a DEEP Playoff run.

It has nothing to do with Rodgers value equaling 2-2nd round picks. It's all about making the most of this 1 year, maybe 2, window!

I don't see any way we don't send one of the second round picks in this trade unless it is delayed until after the draft (or June 1 more likely).  I think I'd rather part with one of those and keep more capital next year in case we find ourselves needing to maneuver up to draft a QB then.  

I suspect a big part of the reason we traded Elijah was to get that extra 2nd round pick to use in the deal while keeping ourselves in position to take a Center or other prospect that can help us this year.  Trying to hold on to both 2nd rounders feels a bit ambitious to me.

[Bobby816]

1 minute ago, nycdan said:

I don't see any way we don't send one of the second round picks in this trade unless it is delayed until after the draft (or June 1 more likely).  I think I'd rather part with one of those and keep more capital next year in case we find ourselves needing to maneuver up to draft a QB then.  

I suspect a big part of the reason we traded Elijah was to get that extra 2nd round pick to use in the deal while keeping ourselves in position to take a Center or other prospect that can help us this year.  Trying to hold on to both 2nd rounders feels a bit ambitious to me.

I can careless about the 2nd this year. I care more about what conditions make the 2024 a 1st. Is it making it to the AFCCG? Is it just making the playoffs? Does it no matter what the team does and just what AR does like play 80% of snaps snd throws for 3750yds?

[Gastineau Lives]

55 minutes ago, Joe W. Namath said:

Favre went for a 3rd.  Rodgers goes for a 3rd.  This deal has been done before.

Giving anymore then a 3rd is foolish.

Especially since the Jets interest in Rodgers is as imaginary as Snuffluffagus

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

3 minutes ago, slats said:

This is the league’s general philosophy, although Douglas seems to place a lot of value on future picks (after all, that’s what he got for the Prez and Darnold). I can see him driving a hard bargain on that front, especially in wanting a consolation pick if Rodgers doesn’t last two years. 
 
I think if that’s what he wants, he’ll get it. Again, the Packers have to trade the player and they have no other options. 

I agree, just trying to paint a picture using an estimate of today’s dollars.

JD is smart to ask for that consolation because 1 years versus 2 is 100% different :).

[JetsRay]

18 hours ago, nycdan said:

So we should fire Douglas and Saleh.  Got it.  Which brings up the question...what's your plan B?

He doesn't have one, just likes to complain.

[slimjasi]

5 minutes ago, RutgersJetFan said:

The Jets might as well give them a first rounder and call it a day since they **** pretty much all of those up too.

Sure 

I’ll ask you the same question I asked @dbatesman: 

what should we do at QB? You don’t want to trade second round picks for Rodgers. Fair enough. Who should the Jets target for QB1 next year? 

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

8 minutes ago, Bobby816 said:

I can careless about the 2nd this year. I care more about what conditions make the 2024 a 1st. Is it making it to the AFCCG? Is it just making the playoffs? Does it no matter what the team does and just what AR does like play 80% of snaps snd throws for 3750yds?

I believe that’s where JD holds further bargaining leverage.

If GB insists not parting with a 2025 pick if Rodgers only plays 1 year, then JD should insist that the 2024 first rounder is only if the Jets make the Super Bowl.

Who wouldn’t pay a late first rounder next year for a Super Bowl?

[Phillyjet]

15 minutes ago, Phillyjet said:

seems like the trade parameters are coming into focus now.  This will get done in the next couple of weeks before the draft.  I don't see this as a draft-day deal at all.  

1) Conditional pick in 2024:  Folks are saying 2nd round, elevating to 1 on parameters.  If JD pushes hard enough, maybe it's a conditional 3rd round pick.  

2) 2023 pick.  Anywhere from a 4th round pick, swap our 2nd for their 3rd (equivalent of a 3rd round pick), or our 2nd round pick.  

Not sure what to make of the Packers giving a pick back in 2025 if Rodgers retires after next year.  Kind of a gimmick, but probably makes more sense if JD has to give up the 2 outright this year.  

The other element here is how and if Rodgers redoes his deal after coming here to permit the Jets cap flexibility in 2024 and 2025 if he retires in 2024, or alternatively in 2025 and 2026 if he plays a second year.  That will be the interesting story as the summer approaches.   Would be awesome if we could reduce the out cap hits by converting bonuses to salary or roster bonuses outright.  Would free us from cap issues down the road.

I also wonder if there will be a player like Corey Davis in the deal.  That would make sense if JD squeezes GB to take our 4th or the 2nd/3rd round swap this year.  More like a pain-reliever for Gutenkast who can save face for the fans by saying he got a "premier" player, even though the Jets were likely to cut Davis for cap purposes.  

[jetblue95]

7 minutes ago, nycdan said:

I don't see any way we don't send one of the second round picks in this trade unless it is delayed until after the draft (or June 1 more likely).  I think I'd rather part with one of those and keep more capital next year in case we find ourselves needing to maneuver up to draft a QB then.  

I suspect a big part of the reason we traded Elijah was to get that extra 2nd round pick to use in the deal while keeping ourselves in position to take a Center or other prospect that can help us this year.  Trying to hold on to both 2nd rounders feels a bit ambitious to me.

 

after the moore trade, the jets don't have a 3rd rounder.  so it's either a 2nd or 4th rounder if we are talking 2023 draft pick (assuming the 1st has been ruled out).  and clearly joe d was cognizant of this when trading moore.  i'd love for it to be a 4th, but can't see GB accepting that after all this drama.

[Claymation]

9 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

So, draft picks are an inexact science?

They are for Mac and Tanny.

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

2 minutes ago, Claymation said:

They are for Mac and Tanny.

Disagree on Mac.  It was an exact science he would **** up the pick

[GreenFish]

A 2nd and a conditional pick is not a steal. However, I would do that trade with no regrets. We have a really young team because we’ve had excess draft picks these last few years and we’ve hit some of those picks.

A 2nd round pick is valuable, but I’d argue it is less valuable to us than a rebuilding team. Draft picks take a couple of years to develop. We got lucky this last draft. More important to winning over the next two years is signing veterans who can help us now.

This trade also does not mortgage our future.

[#27TheDominator]

11 minutes ago, slats said:

This is the league’s general philosophy, although Douglas seems to place a lot of value on future picks (after all, that’s what he got for the Prez and Darnold). I can see him driving a hard bargain on that front, especially in wanting a consolation pick if Rodgers doesn’t last two years. 
 
I think if that’s what he wants, he’ll get it. Again, the Packers have to trade the player and they have no other options. 

I am not sure how Douglas values future picks.  I think it might be a cyclical thing where he knew they were not going anywhere, so he wanted to stack picks - could have helped if he.  ended up wanting or needing to trade up.  Like comp picks which you can try to get some years and other years you are a buyer.

[bicketybam]

If I was told we could trade Moore and a 3rd for Rodgers, I'd say sign me up. The question becomes the second year. I have no problem with giving up a 2 next year if Rodgers plays a second year. Escalating to a one for a SB win? No problem. Getting a second back from GM if he retires after this year would basically mean a pick swap, and I'm fairly confident GB will be drafting higher than us. It's really not that terrible.

Having to trade a 2 and a 1 for a SB win is a no brainier for me. And if he wins it all and retires then we traded a 2 and a 1 for Rodgers and GB's 2024 second round pick. I think it's a worthwhile gamble.

[The Crusher]

25 minutes ago, RutgersJetFan said:

The Jets might as well give them a first rounder and call it a day since they **** pretty much all of those up too.

Watch it pal. I’m young enough to remember us drafting Garret Wilson in the first. 

[RutgersJetFan]

14 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Sure 

I’ll ask you the same question I asked @dbatesman: 

what should we do at QB? You don’t want to trade second round picks for Rodgers. Fair enough. Who should the Jets target for QB1 next year? 

So I think this is kind of a deflection that the hawt take boi crowd does if anyone ever offers criticism of a crappy solution to a really bad problem. If you can't think of something better than this bad plan, then shut up. 

I don't work for the Jets. Neither of us do. I'm a douchebag on the internet, so it doesn't really matter if I have a plan or not. I have no idea what they should do, but going all-in the way they are seems like a really bad move because it usually is. The Jets shouldn't even be in this situation in the first place, that's the solution. I'd love to be way off on this but the likelihood seems pretty high that what the Jets are doing is going to put them exactly back where they are right now, if not in a worse position, within the next 1-2 years.  

[RutgersJetFan]

2 minutes ago, The Crusher said:

Watch it pal. I’m young enough to remember us drafting Garret Wilson in the first. 

There was a solid streak of years where they were hitting the ball out of the park on fourth rounders for a while. Maybe they should just go back to that.

[Joe W. Namath]

28 minutes ago, Rhg1084 said:

Except we don’t have a 3rd

We can trade back in the draft with one of our 2 second round picks and get a 3rd.

[Warfish]

24 minutes ago, 32EBoozer said:

It's all about making the most of this 1 year, maybe 2, window!

This.

JD is selling out for two things:

1. A shot to save his and Saleh's job by making the playoffs in 2023 and winning a playoff game.

2. Time.  Time to rehabilitate Zach Wilson, because they (or at least JD) still thinks he is the right guy.

That is what the pivot to doing it "not the right way" this offseason has all been about.

Have 1-2 years of possible run, job-saving run at that, and buy time to get Zachy Poo right and ready.

[Warfish]

5 minutes ago, RutgersJetFan said:

I have no idea what they should do

Well, duh.

[Scott Dierking]

5 minutes ago, RutgersJetFan said:

So I think this is kind of a shuck and jive that the hawt take boi crowd does if anyone ever offers criticism of a crappy solution to a really bad problem. If you can't think of something better than this bad plan, then shut up. 

I don't work for the Jets. Neither of us do. I'm a douchebag on the internet, so it doesn't really matter if I have a plan or not. I have no idea what they should do, but going all-in the way they are seems like a really bad move because it usually is. The Jets shouldn't even be in this situation in the first place, that's the solution. I'd love to be way off on this but the likelihood seems pretty high that what the Jets are doing is going to put them exactly back where they are right now, if not in a worse position, within the next 1-2 years.  

I do not see how a second round draft pick is going to change the fortunes of this franchise. A veteran, accomplished QB might.

I like the chances better of that qb doing that, than some unknown 2nd round acne faced rookie.

I may be wrong.

[Bobby816]

Just now, Scott Dierking said:

I do not see how a second round draft pick is going to change the fortunes of this franchise. A veteran, accomplished QB might.

I like the chances better of that qb doing that, than some unknown 2nd round acne faced rookie.

I may be wrong.

How about giving up a 2024 1st and AR retires after this next season. How does that sit well with anyone?

[Scott Dierking]

3 minutes ago, Warfish said:

This.

JD is selling out for two things:

1. A shot to save his and Saleh's job by making the playoffs in 2023 and winning a playoff game.

2. Time.  Time to rehabilitate Zach Wilson, because they (or at least JD) still thinks he is the right guy.

That is what the pivot to doing it "not the right way" this offseason has all been about.

Have 1-2 years of possible run, job-saving run at that, and buy time to get Zachy Poo right and ready.

It was the owner that came out and said they would be getting a veteran qb this offseason.

[Pac]

9 minutes ago, RutgersJetFan said:

I'm a douchebag on the internet

Never have truer words been typed. 

[Augustiniak]

4 minutes ago, Warfish said:

This.

JD is selling out for two things:

1. A shot to save his and Saleh's job by making the playoffs in 2023 and winning a playoff game.

2. Time.  Time to rehabilitate Zach Wilson, because they (or at least JD) still thinks he is the right guy.

That is what the pivot to doing it "not the right way" this offseason has all been about.

Have 1-2 years of possible run, job-saving run at that, and buy time to get Zachy Poo right and ready.

I don’t think they believe in ZW anymore.  I do think they believe they can make a serious run with rodgers for 2-3 yrs and draft another qb to groom behind him. 

[RutgersJetFan]

Just now, Pac said:

Never have truer words been typed. 

It's not calling myself rapey but it's all I got

[dbatesman]

1 hour ago, slimjasi said:

Of course they are valuable. I don't think anyone really thinks they aren't valuable. Bringing up Devin Smith is done for cheap laughs. 

What is also valuable is having a decent QB. Hence, I'm still dying to know what your big plan is at QB. You don't seem to want to trade a second round pick or two for Rodgers, who instantly gives us top 5 SB odds. Ok, maybe he's washed. I'm just wondering - what do you actually want to do at QB next year? 

RJF said all this already, but a.) I really don't get this impulse that I'm not allowed to criticize the current plan unless I can come up with a better one, especially since b1.) there is no good plan when you draft an unplayable QB with the second overall pick and when b2.) you have an owner who doesn't believe in playoff mandates but has very clearly given this group a playoff mandate. But just for fun (and even though I've explained this several times already), in a perfect world--i.e., a world in which the owner either fired the current group or gave them enough job security to build the team--I probably just would have signed Carr. I would also be in favor of signing Jacoby Brissett and drafting somebody this year; I don't particularly like anyone from this crop, but I've been very very very wrong on that sort of thing many times before, so I won't go to war on it.

As I've also said multiple times, this argument essentially boils down to 90% of the board agreeing with you that Rodgers "instantly gives us top 5 SB odds" and me being part of the other 10%.

[Jet Nut]

On 3/27/2023 at 4:34 PM, Beerfish said:

Once the Packers very easily found out that Rodgers was plan A, B, C and D for the Jets they were able to start being difficult.

Let’s face it, there’s no scenario where you wouldnt be bitching about acquiring Rodgers.  To the point you side with the Packers and swear there is no other plan for the Jets without having a clue whether there is or isn’t.  
 

[Jetsfan80]

5 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

RJF said all this already, but a.) I really don't get this impulse that I'm not allowed to criticize the current plan unless I can come up with a better one, especially since b1.) there is no good plan when you draft an unplayable QB with the second overall pick and when you b2.) have an owner who doesn't believe in playoff mandates but has very clearly given this group a playoff mandate. But just for fun (and even though I've explained this several times already), in a perfect world--i.e., a world in which the owner either fired the current group or gave them enough job security to build the team--I probably just would have signed Carr. I would also be in favor of signing Jacoby Brissett and drafting somebody this year; I don't particularly like anyone from this crop, but I've been very very very wrong on that sort of thing many times before, so I won't go to war on it.

As I've also said multiple times, this argument essentially boils down to 90% of the board agreeing with you that Rodgers "instantly gives us top 5 SB odds" and me being part of the other 10%.

 

But you and your 10 % idea is basically doing the same things the team has always done:   Drafting a QB + signing Jacoby Brissett who is basically the same as Josh McCown.  

I do agree with you that the f**k-up all begain with drafting Wilson in the 1st place.  Can't do much about that now.  I hate your plan for what the Jets should be doing right now and you should too.  No one should want Joe Douglas to be drafting a QB high this year.  No one.

And I also don't get those who wanted Carr while firmly opposing acquiring Aaron Rodgers.  Is it because a 2nd round pick is involved?  Because if it comes down to personality, Carr is the exact wrong kind of a QB to bring in here.  Overly sensitive Californians should intrigue exactly no one on this board.

[batman10023]

5 minutes ago, Phillyjet said:

seems like the trade parameters are coming into focus now.  This will get done in the next couple of weeks before the draft.  I don't see this as a draft-day deal at all.  

1) Conditional pick in 2024:  Folks are saying 2nd round, elevating to 1 on parameters.  If JD pushes hard enough, maybe it's a conditional 3rd round pick.  

2) 2023 pick.  Anywhere from a 4th round pick, swap our 2nd for their 3rd (equivalent of a 3rd round pick), or our 2nd round pick.  

Not sure what to make of the Packers giving a pick back in 2025 if Rodgers retires after next year.  Kind of a gimmick, but probably makes more sense if JD has to give up the 2 outright this year.  

The other element here is how and if Rodgers redoes his deal after coming here to permit the Jets cap flexibility in 2024 and 2025 if he retires in 2024, or alternatively in 2025 and 2026 if he plays a second year.  That will be the interesting story as the summer approaches.   Would be awesome if we could reduce the out cap hits by converting bonuses to salary or roster bonuses outright.  Would free us from cap issues down the road.

what is our cap hit if he retires after a year?  seems like it's high risk high reward