### The Official Draft Day One Discussion Thread ###

[slimjasi]

41 minutes ago, Warfish said:

So we'll trade away a guy with 7 sacks because we have McD? 

We expect him to have 7+ sacks and as many or more pressures as a rookie?

 

Saleh basically told us Lawson isn't going anywhere this offseason last month or whenever that was. 

[T0mShane]

2 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

 

So these two posts highlight something I wasn't aware of because of the lack of finishing:

The Jets were insignificantly different from the top QB-pressure generating teams last year. Nominally they were 3rd-best, but #1 was 25.6%, #2 were 25.5% and Jets were at 25.4%. 

So they could already generate pressure, even with the NFL's lowest blitz % at just under 15%.

What they lacked is closing. This isn't like years ago when generating pressure meant forcing bad throws/decisions; this new crop of QBs just moves. So on paper they're pressured, but the top QBs we face this year - Allen x2 again, Mahomes, Hurts - are special because they don't just get sacked because one guy generates "pressure" and the rest of the plan is Q generating too much pressure up the middle for them to simply step up when the outside pass rush makes wide turns around the tackles.

This is designed to eliminate that 2nd or 3rd chance because these best mobile passers seem to buy extra time so effortlessly from close-but-no-cigar pressure.

That's the idea, anyway. Will it work out? Who knows.

I wasn't locked in on an OT as my round 1 wish in the first place, so I'm not crushed over that. I had them locked in at center in round 2, and (despite the popularity) was never behind them starting two rookies on the OL in an all-in year. Nor do I like the idea of OL depth in round 1 either because they don't rotate in while serving as depth.

The concern is that (a) he seems to have consistently been outside the top 20 (if not 25), so it's inefficient use of staying in that slot instead of picking up a free extra pick and getting the same player, if that could've happened. Also (b) using so many resources to one position is inefficient, even when it's a premium position. It can still work out if you hit on later picks for those other positions sacrificed upon this altar, but that's kind of the whole trick: it's really, really hard to do that. 

Such a good point that “pressures”’don’t mean as much because so many of these QBs are so mobile. 

[jetstream23]

3 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

 

Saleh basically told us Lawson isn't going anywhere this offseason last month or whenever that was. 

Then it has to be true. I don’t think Saleh would lie to us.

[CTJetsFan]

10 hours ago, Mogglez said:

Find me one player, in the modern era, with his measurements, that went on to become an effective pass rusher in the NFL.

Assuming you were talking about McDonald here.

The comp I saw was Brian Burns. Taken around the same spot:

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/brian-burns/32004255-5243-5186-1599-e217b39cecc8

Prospect Info
College
Florida State
Hometown
Class
Fort Lauderdale, FL
Junior
Height
6’ 5’’
Weight
249 lbs
Arm
33 7/8’’
Hand
10’’
Prospect Grade
6.70
Year 1 starter

90Elite
View All Prospects
2019 Draft Results
Drafted by
Carolina
Panthers
Carolina Panthers
Round 1 ‧ Pick 16
Read More
Production Score
84
2019 Combine EDGE Rank: 3rd
Athleticism Score *est
81
2019 Combine EDGE Rank: 5th
Total Score
90
2019 Combine EDGE Rank: 2nd
40-Yard Dash
4.53
Seconds
10-Yard Split
1.57
Seconds
Vertical Jump
36’’
Broad Jump
10’ 9’’
3-Cone Drill
7.01
Seconds
20-Yd Shuttle
--
Bench Press

[slimjasi]

1 minute ago, jetstream23 said:

Then it has to be true. I don’t think Saleh would lie to us.

I don't think he was lying and I don't think Lawson is going anywhere until after the season. 

[Chrebetfan80]

28 minutes ago, Mogglez said:

Clearly he was and, yes, I think that is a bad evaluation.

As for the 2nd part?  If the player has a late 1st - early 2nd round grade, I don’t like the tape, and I don’t like his weaknesses, which are compounded by his underwhelming size, I just can’t get behind blindly hoping he’s going to be a good player.  Like I said, I am going to root for him.  I just think it was a bad pick that we will end up regretting.  Nothing about him excites me or makes me feel like it was good, or even decent, pick.  I hope I’m wrong.

We've talked privately about this, but figured id put this out here for every... what I will say for the pick is this... And ill preface it with saying last night i was very Meh with the pick

1) its not good value at the spots thats for sure, because if there WERE offers to trade down then that would have been the move. 

2) After really giving it thought, trading down and then selecting this kid or even a TE would have been a better move to me. 

That being said here are some things that make me hopeful that the pick, despite being a reach, could work out. 

Iowa state has a pretty unique defense, albeit one that is becoming increasingly popular in different parts of the college landscape and even high school now. When I was at my previous spot, I researched their 3 high safety look quite a bit as a way to change up things in our coverage scheme and run game.  Iowa State runs a 3 high safety defense utilizing many different line formations but primarily a Tite front.  

What that means is in their base defense and in many different formations they line up their Dline with a 0 tech nose, and two 4i Ends (inside shade of the tackle). This style of defense has been popular in college as a way to combat the spread offense and use unique ways to counter teams running 1 back gap schemes or zone runs.  It doesnt catch on in the NFL however because of the lack of edge rushing opportunities it presents from its Dline rather, pressure often comes from stunts and blitzes from their OLB's or in this case what many refer to as the Jack safety. 

Mcdonald at 235 playing a 4i is pretty Atypical for that position.  When considering the responsibilities of a 4i in a tite front, many times they are asked to spill the run to the outside, eating up the b gap.  So when considering that he was very out of place in their defense from a body type standpoint, it would account for his often struggles in the run game. Also gives you hope as he played well enough there holding up against tackles, guards, and double teams when he was very undersized for the position.  

He also generated a good deal of pressure rushing from a disadvantaged position.  As a 4i he is lined up on the inside shoulder of the tackle and often will be responsible still for the C gap during a pass rush.  This means on the snap he has to adjust and move from an inside shade and work across the tackles surface to rush on the outside lane, and still get to the QB on a contain rush.  

In our defense as a wide 9 or even as a 6 tech he will be given the opportunity to not worry about spilling runs by splitting double teams, or to rush the QB by working across the surface of the tackle but instead using his speed and get off to beat the tackle around the corner.  This is where his elite bend and burst will play most effectively.  He will need to get stronger so that he can develop a post arm move and a bull rush, as well as set the edge in the run game, but there should be a good deal of optimism that he can make a direct impact as a rookie rushing the passer. 

Remains to be seen how the pick turns out, and I do agree the VALUE of the selection does not fit.  Maybe we're all wrong and a lot of teams had him higher on their boards, but at face value, I think trading back they would have still had a shot at him.  

[slimjasi]

6 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Such a good point that “pressures”’don’t mean as much because so many of these QBs are so mobile. 

Yes. 

Pressures can even sometimes help a guy like Josh Allen get outside of the pocket and take that killer deep shot he wants to take. 

[Mogglez]

44 minutes ago, jetblue95 said:

apologies as I’m doing this on my iPad while waiting for my car to be serviced so formatting may be screwed up

just a couple off the top of my mind, with the caveat that obviously no two players are exactly alike  but all the below had knocks of being undersized and lacking strength to set the edge coming out of college  

Hanson reddick

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/haason-reddick/32005245-4432-4095-207d-440aa35fb3ac
 

leonard floyd

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/leonard-floyd/3200464c-4f75-8060-5a6d-d3aabc3c32e2

randy gregory

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/randy-gregory/32004752-4578-9590-e57a-049e4cdc3700

 

Ok, but it took Reddick and Floyd 4-5 year respectively to generate some sort of consistency.  McDonald will be 29 when it’s time to pick up his 5th year option.  Randy Gregory doesn’t have the sack numbers that scream “elite pass rusher” either.

 

[32EBoozer]

2 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

His "we let the draft come to us" comment in his presser was a bit preposterous.

The last two drafts they've been champs at NOT letting the draft come to them. They didn't just trade up for JJII, but iirc he later admitted he'd unsuccessfully been trying to trade up for that player since he dropped to pick #15. That's not letting the draft come to you. Neither is trading up for a RB at the top of round 2. Neither is trading two 3rd rounders to move up into the top 15 overall for a guard in a deep OL-rich draft. 

He had a LOT more Draft capital to work with the past 2 years than the 1st; 2nd; 4th; 2 - 5ths

This was the year (w/AR trade) where he had to let it play out.

[peekskill68]

1 hour ago, Warfish said:

So we'll trade away a guy with 7 sacks because we have McD? 

We expect him to have 7+ sacks and as many or more pressures as a rookie?

The rookie doesn't cost $15 million

[Warfish]

4 minutes ago, peekskill68 said:

The rookie doesn't cost $15 million

Indeed, but if we just have to turn around and spend that $15M on a Lawson analogue because our rookie isn't going to fill that gap, what have we gained?

[Dunnie]

Ok, but it took Reddick and Floyd 4-5 year respectively to generate some sort of consistency.  McDonald will be 29 when it’s time to pick up his 5th year option.  Randy Gregory doesn’t have the sack numbers that scream “elite pass rusher” either.
 

I guess my main problem with the pick ... And I have never seen him play .. just read reports... Is that he does seem like a ever present disrupter... More of a role player. Am I wrong ?

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

[dbatesman]

10 hours ago, Mogglez said:

Find me one player, in the modern era, with his measurements, that went on to become an effective pass rusher in the NFL.

[SomebodytoAnybody47]

15 minutes ago, Chrebetfan80 said:

We've talked privately about this, but figured id put this out here for every... what I will say for the pick is this... And ill preface it with saying last night i was very Meh with the pick

1) its not good value at the spots thats for sure, because if there WERE offers to trade down then that would have been the move. 

2) After really giving it thought, trading down and then selecting this kid or even a TE would have been a better move to me. 

That being said here are some things that make me hopeful that the pick, despite being a reach, could work out. 

Iowa state has a pretty unique defense, albeit one that is becoming increasingly popular in different parts of the college landscape and even high school now. When I was at my previous spot, I researched their 3 high safety look quite a bit as a way to change up things in our coverage scheme and run game.  Iowa State runs a 3 high safety defense utilizing many different line formations but primarily a Tite front.  

What that means is in their base defense and in many different formations they line up their Dline with a 0 tech nose, and two 4i Ends (inside shade of the tackle). This style of defense has been popular in college as a way to combat the spread offense and use unique ways to counter teams running 1 back gap schemes or zone runs.  It doesnt catch on in the NFL however because of the lack of edge rushing opportunities it presents from its Dline rather, pressure often comes from stunts and blitzes from their OLB's or in this case what many refer to as the Jack safety. 

Mcdonald at 235 playing a 4i is pretty Atypical for that position.  When considering the responsibilities of a 4i in a tite front, many times they are asked to spill the run to the outside, eating up the b gap.  So when considering that he was very out of place in their defense from a body type standpoint, it would account for his often struggles in the run game. Also gives you hope as he played well enough there holding up against tackles, guards, and double teams when he was very undersized for the position.  

He also generated a good deal of pressure rushing from a disadvantaged position.  As a 4i he is lined up on the inside shoulder of the tackle and often will be responsible still for the C gap during a pass rush.  This means on the snap he has to adjust and move from an inside shade and work across the tackles surface to rush on the outside lane, and still get to the QB on a contain rush.  

In our defense as a wide 9 or even as a 6 tech he will be given the opportunity to not worry about spilling runs by splitting double teams, or to rush the QB by working across the surface of the tackle but instead using his speed and get off to beat the tackle around the corner.  This is where his elite bend and burst will play most effectively.  He will need to get stronger so that he can develop a post arm move and a bull rush, as well as set the edge in the run game, but there should be a good deal of optimism that he can make a direct impact as a rookie rushing the passer. 

Remains to be seen how the pick turns out, and I do agree the VALUE of the selection does not fit.  Maybe we're all wrong and a lot of teams had him higher on their boards, but at face value, I think trading back they would have still had a shot at him.  

I think we’re all meh on the value and felt we could’ve recouped a pick by trading back. But who knows where that would put them. There were 3 other edge guys picked to close out the first. 
Sucks we couldn’t but I’m all in on having this type of pass rusher with that kind of bend, moved out wide and getting after them with Huff on the other side and Q coming up the middle. 

[section314]

10 minutes ago, Warfish said:

So we'll trade away a guy with 7 sacks because we have McD? 

We expect him to have 7+ sacks and as many or more pressures as a rookie?

Lawson is going nowhere. Had a good year. Will be better in 2nd year after surgery.

[football guy]

3 hours ago, Integrity28 said:

You can tell by how they’ve taken a step back without him

Howie hires extremely great football people/scouts to identify the players. He's a master at processing the information his people share with him, maneuvering the board and acquiring the talent. His "skill" is not scouting and by no means should that be taken as an insult; Howie is one of the leagues best General Managers.

Either way, this is being blown out of proportion. It wasn't a blanket defense of JD. The only point I'm was making was that in 2018, Joe identified Matt Pryor and Jordan Mailata as later round developmental OL after missing out on guys early. Everyone in Philadelphia would credit him the credit for those picks. After missing out on his OL this year, he needs to try and channel that deep scouting background in OL in hopes of uncovering someone. That's not to say he will: he had his fair share of misses too... but in light of what happened, you hope that he will look back into what made the 2018 draft blueprint great and tap into that. Don't see why that's so controversial lol 

[Augustiniak]

1 minute ago, football guy said:

Howie hires extremely great football people/scouts to identify the players. He's a master at processing the information his people share with him, maneuvering the board and acquiring the talent. His "skill" is not scouting and by no means should that be taken as an insult; Howie is one of the leagues best General Managers.

Either way, this is being blown out of proportion. It wasn't a blanket defense of JD. The only point I'm was making was that in 2018, Joe identified Matt Pryor and Jordan Mailata as later round developmental OL after missing out on guys early. Everyone in Philadelphia would credit him the credit for those picks. After missing out on his OL this year, he needs to try and channel that deep scouting background in OL in hopes of uncovering someone. That's not to say he will: he had his fair share of misses too... but in light of what happened, you hope that he will look back into what made the 2018 draft blueprint great and tap into that. Don't see why that's so controversial lol 

There’s no crime in taking edge rushers and then addressing OL in rounds 2-4.  You can’t build an entire OL with 1st rounders.  

That said, with only 1 pick tonight, do you think they trade back or just take their favorite OL and call it a night?  Also is it C or OT tonight?  Bergeron?

[football guy]

3 hours ago, derp said:

If the Jets were truly locked in on an offensive tackle, it was truly foolish to make it as obvious as it was. Consensus everywhere was that they wanted a tackle. That there was one tackle left on the board before they were up was a very reasonable possibility. Part of why I pushed back on the idea they were locked in, because it was such a needlessly risky way to operate if they were and I hoped they weren’t that poorly run.

We’ll never really know if the pick swap mattered. The Steelers weren’t moving to 14, they were moving to get ahead of the Jets. Maybe a move to 12 was too rich for their blood, but Detroit was moving down and reaching for guys last night and Pittsburgh easily could’ve moved up there if the Jets hadn’t swapped.

That said, as soon as the swap happened - the Pats love to trade down and the Steelers and Tampa had the tackle need and were very much in range. Saw this one from a mile away. I can’t imagine the Jets didn’t anticipate it too.

Part of the problem with being behind the Patriots too, know they’re not going to trade with you and it’d be odd to reacquire your pick from the Packers. Also part of the problem with being down to five draft picks this year and next year (pending compensatory picks coming your way).

I've reflected on this and you're probably right RE: trading to 12 if we were at 13. No matter what the Lions GM says that probably would've happened... part of the reason why ARI moved back up for PJJ was because the Steelers tried to move up for him too. I think you have the first part right; they made it way too obvious that OT was their intent. Had they had more picks I think they would've traded up themselves, but didn't want to put themselves in a position to have a 3 person draft class. 

[peekskill68]

21 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Indeed, but if we just have to turn around and spend that $15M on a Lawson analogue because our rookie isn't going to fill that gap, what have we gained?

We'll have to see.  It would not surprise me to see Lawson released/traded and Huff/JJ/Clemons/McD absorb his snaps

[football guy]

3 hours ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Thank you for your balanced comments.  A couple of questions though.  Do you think JD got beaten pretty badly by GB in the AR trade?  And did that unnecessarily cost us Broderick Jones?   And to check my assumption, was an OT the priority going into the draft?  

 

I give GB kudos for getting the pick swap in late. Had always expected it to be 2 second-round picks, one being conditional. 

I think the Jets should've held firm on the pick swap and if it was clear no deal was getting done before the draft without it, I would've wanted the Packers 4th round pick instead of the 5th. 

And yes, OT was the priority 

[Augustiniak]

Just now, peekskill68 said:

We'll have to see.  It would not surprise me to see Lawson released/traded and Huff/JJ/Clemons/McD absorb his snaps

Get the feeling Lawson is not long for the team.  

[derp]

1 hour ago, jetblue95 said:

Not sure what you mean by making their plan to take on OT obvious to the entire nfl.  As far as I know, JD never said we want an OT in R1. Anyone looking at the depth chart would know OT could be a need for this team. 

Bringing in players in play in the mid first round for 30 visits would be a start, for example. There’s a difference between something being a need and something being the targeted position.

Given the Jets in theory have two (injury prone) starting caliber players, AVT, and a fourth round pick from last year at RT, if they were actually focused on OT they could’ve done a lot more work to push the narrative that they were looking at edge/WR/OT and planning to take the best player at that spot. 

Instead, there was a narrative that they were going to go OT and they reinforced that when they only brought in OT’s among mid first round prospects for 30 visits.

If it was to get a better feel for if they liked those guys and they were cool with edge too - totally fine. If they actually wanted an OT, should’ve done more work to misdirect.

[peekskill68]

2 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

Get the feeling Lawson is not long for the team.  

Agree. They also have to find the room to pay Quinnen

[ganggreen305]

3 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

Get the feeling Lawson is not long for the team.  

Restructure?

[C Mart]

8 minutes ago, football guy said:

Howie hires extremely great football people/scouts to identify the players. He's a master at processing the information his people share with him, maneuvering the board and acquiring the talent. His "skill" is not scouting and by no means should that be taken as an insult; Howie is one of the leagues best General Managers.

Either way, this is being blown out of proportion. It wasn't a blanket defense of JD. The only point I'm was making was that in 2018, Joe identified Matt Pryor and Jordan Mailata as later round developmental OL after missing out on guys early. Everyone in Philadelphia would credit him the credit for those picks. After missing out on his OL this year, he needs to try and channel that deep scouting background in OL in hopes of uncovering someone. That's not to say he will: he had his fair share of misses too... but in light of what happened, you hope that he will look back into what made the 2018 draft blueprint great and tap into that. Don't see why that's so controversial lol 

Since many here like to beat their chest with knowing more about prospects than NFL evaluators, I was on Jordan Mailata as a prospect.  Hire me Woody..

[Warfish]

27 minutes ago, section314 said:

Lawson is going nowhere. Had a good year. Will be better in 2nd year after surgery.

So McD is his (and JJ's) backup, rotationally, or will he start over JJ?

[Biggs]

53 minutes ago, Mogglez said:

Ok, but it took Reddick and Floyd 4-5 year respectively to generate some sort of consistency.  McDonald will be 29 when it’s time to pick up his 5th year option.  Randy Gregory doesn’t have the sack numbers that scream “elite pass rusher” either.

 

Reddick sucked early in his career.  In fairness the Cardinals tried to move him to inside LB and he had no clue how to play the position.  Hard to know how he would have played in the right scheme and position. 

[TuscanyTile2]

21 minutes ago, football guy said:

I give GB kudos for getting the pick swap in late. Had always expected it to be 2 second-round picks, one being conditional. 

I think the Jets should've held firm on the pick swap and if it was clear no deal was getting done before the draft without it, I would've wanted the Packers 4th round pick instead of the 5th. 

And yes, OT was the priority 

Appreciate the info!

[TuscanyTile2]

1 hour ago, Warfish said:

So we'll trade away a guy with 7 sacks because we have McD? 

We expect him to have 7+ sacks and as many or more pressures as a rookie?

I don't necessarily think we'll trade Lawson.  I get the feeling JD will trade down though.

[BigRy56]

This would make a ton of sense for the Jets IMO

[section314]

10 minutes ago, Warfish said:

So McD is his (and JJ's) backup, rotationally, or will he start over JJ?

Been reading  some stuff(can’t remember where) that they are thinking of trying JJ at OLB.Would think McD starts as rotation guy but his pedigree is a closer with speed, something we didn’t have. 

[Warfish]

Just now, section314 said:

Been reading  some stuff(can’t remember where) that they are thinking of trying JJ at OLB.Would think McD starts as rotation guy but his pedigree is a closer with speed, something we didn’t have. 

So in an all-in-to-win year, our D will be based on two guys learning new positions then.

[football guy]

23 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

There’s no crime in taking edge rushers and then addressing OL in rounds 2-4.  You can’t build an entire OL with 1st rounders.  

That said, with only 1 pick tonight, do you think they trade back or just take their favorite OL and call it a night?  Also is it C or OT tonight?  Bergeron?

Depends how the board falls. They're drafting 12th tonight, and I think we should expect at least 1 QB, 1 TE, 1 OL, 2 DE, and 2 DBs to come off the board. Question is who makes up those other 4 players. I can see them taking the best OL (Tippmann, JMS, Mauch, Bergeron), TE (Mayer, Musgrave, Washington, LaPorta), or DL (Benton, Adebawore) available. Just not totally clear how they rank everyone

[Sammybighead]

32 minutes ago, football guy said:

I give GB kudos for getting the pick swap in late. Had always expected it to be 2 second-round picks, one being conditional. 

I think the Jets should've held firm on the pick swap and if it was clear no deal was getting done before the draft without it, I would've wanted the Packers 4th round pick instead of the 5th. 

And yes, OT was the priority 

The pick swap cost us, flat out. You want to be angry at something, be angry a that. It's the price we needed to pay to finalize the damn trade. Probably most teams would have been more reasonable/accommodating but kudos to GB for being stubborn pricks and holding out forever. It paid off.

With regards to "value", guys, THIS DRAFT STINKS. Once we missed out on Jones, it was over. What's the argument? We could have moved back a few spots and picked up another 4th in a sh*tty draft? Because that's about all we're getting. We were not getting a 3rd from anyone without moving down 10+ spots. Maybe you get McDonald in the mid-20s, maybe you don't. But if everyone on your board is essentially a 2nd round value but McDonald is fringe high 2nd/1st value on your board, you can't take that risk for a 4th IN A sh*tTY DRAFT.

Again, be mad at the real causes:

1.  The pick swap with GB

2. Stupid Levis plummeting like a rock instead of going top 12

[football guy]

Let me be clear: I have not heard him associated with the Jets at all and I do not believe he will be the pick. With that said... 

imagine Mekhi Becton and Dawand Jones on the same OL lol