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How good does Rodgers have to be to win 11 games?


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Assume no major injuries to the Jets core outside the norm ..  Yes, there will be games missed by Tyron Smith & AVT (maybe even Morgan Moses), and it’s feasible Mike Williams will not be the 2022 version.

Try to strip out the emotions of the last decade.  Also, consider that the Dolphins and Bills lost a lot, and the Pats are in a rebuild.

Looking at our defense and special teams, what’s the average points we need per game to win 11?

What would a typical stat line look like for Rodgers?  Breece Hall?

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4 hours ago, Joe W. Namath said:

Rodgers 4,600 yards 36 tds

Breece, 1,550 yards rushing 750 yards recieving 20 total tds

AR Yardage is reasonable, TD total  is 2+/game avg. is reasonable as well. 
 

With Allen as the #2, I can see Breece getting 300 carries. 5 yard average is reasonable considering his home run potential. Considering he had nearly 700 receiving yards while being held back early in year… I think you’re spot on.

13 wins should be a lock barring major injuries with our schedule.

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2 hours ago, 32EBoozer said:

AR Yardage is reasonable, TD total  is 2+/game avg. is reasonable as well. 
 

With Allen as the #2, I can see Breece getting 300 carries. 5 yard average is reasonable considering his home run potential. Considering he had nearly 700 receiving yards while being held back early in year… I think you’re spot on.

13 wins should be a lock barring major injuries with our schedule.

Boozer, you are a joy to read.  What a great post.  13-4 if Rodgers stays healthy.  Division crown and a home playoff game.  The best young, gm and hc get extended for a long time.

Accept it jet fans!!!  This team is going to have a historic season if Rodgers stays healthy.

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I mean they won 7 last year with historically bad QB and OLine play. Now you’re putting a first ballot HOF QB behind a beefed up line with plenty of young explosive weapons? Safe to say it’s possible they can get to 13-14 wins if everything breaks right. AFC east took a major step back and is wide open. 

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IMO, what I’m watching for in these camp updates and, eventually, live reps is whether or not Rodgers is playing in structure and on time, which he wasn’t doing at all last year and (from the limited samples this summer) still isn’t doing much. The no-look passes and the improvised rollout stuff is fun and all, but it’s no way to make a living. Rodgers is in the Norma Desmond phase of his career and wants to show that he can still be The Guy, but it’s doubtful he can do as much coming off the Achilles, and especially behind a new OL and with unknowns at receiver outside of Garrett Wilson. 

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42 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

IMO, what I’m watching for in these camp updates and, eventually, live reps is whether or not Rodgers is playing in structure and on time, which he wasn’t doing at all last year and (from the limited samples this summer) still isn’t doing much. The no-look passes and the improvised rollout stuff is fun and all, but it’s no way to make a living. Rodgers is in the Norma Desmond phase of his career and wants to show that he can still be The Guy, but it’s doubtful he can do as much coming off the Achilles, and especially behind a new OL and with unknowns at receiver outside of Garrett Wilson. 

Actually I don't think Rodgers needs a lot of time in training camp. And esp not much in exhibition games. In reg games he should do very well unless Oline stinks. Last years injury was a fluke. But the achilles recovery could be the road block. 

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7 hours ago, Rangers9 said:

Actually I don't think Rodgers needs a lot of time in training camp. And esp not much in exhibition games. In reg games he should do very well unless Oline stinks. Last years injury was a fluke. But the achilles recovery could be the road block. 

Recall that Rodgers is also the de facto OC, he’s extremely particular about where his receivers are on any given play, and he likes to improvise more often than not to take advantages of defensive vulnerabilities that he identifies pre-snap. It is not easy to play receiver for Aaron Rodgers, and it’s incumbent upon him to get those receivers up to speed. He’s already not going to practice with Mike Williams at all, Corley sounds like he’s in the remedial route-running program already, and Garrett Wilson is an unconventional, imprecise route runner on a good day. Rodgers needs to get on the same page as all these guys. 

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11 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Recall that Rodgers is also the de facto OC, he’s extremely particular about where his receivers are on any given play, and he likes to improvise more often than not to take advantages of defensive vulnerabilities that he identifies pre-snap. It is not easy to play receiver for Aaron Rodgers, and it’s incumbent upon him to get those receivers up to speed. He’s already not going to practice with Mike Williams at all, Corley sounds like he’s in the remedial route-running program already, and Garrett Wilson is an unconventional, imprecise route runner on a good day. Rodgers needs to get on the same page as all these guys. 

Rodgers throws the ball to whoever's open. Wilson is like a 7-11. Open 24/7!

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3 hours ago, T0mShane said:

Recall that Rodgers is also the de facto OC, he’s extremely particular about where his receivers are on any given play, and he likes to improvise more often than not to take advantages of defensive vulnerabilities that he identifies pre-snap. It is not easy to play receiver for Aaron Rodgers, and it’s incumbent upon him to get those receivers up to speed. He’s already not going to practice with Mike Williams at all, Corley sounds like he’s in the remedial route-running program already, and Garrett Wilson is an unconventional, imprecise route runner on a good day. Rodgers needs to get on the same page as all these guys. 

That and he's old!

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On 6/22/2024 at 2:47 PM, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

Assume no major injuries to the Jets core outside the norm ..  Yes, there will be games missed by Tyron Smith & AVT (maybe even Morgan Moses), and it’s feasible Mike Williams will not be the 2022 version.

Try to strip out the emotions of the last decade.  Also, consider that the Dolphins and Bills lost a lot, and the Pats are in a rebuild.

Looking at our defense and special teams, what’s the average points we need per game to win 11?

What would a typical stat line look like for Rodgers?  Breece Hall?

I think that this year's team identity will be defined as a run heavy team, with Aaron Rodgers mixing it up to keep the defense guessing.  This is why I believe we drafted 2 hard running young stallions to enter the mix with Breece Hall.  If the team gets to 27 or 30 points in any game, then you can turn the lights off and count it as a Jets win.  Controlling the line of scrimmage with a much more talented O line, will prevent the other teams offense from controlling the clock, and points will be at a minimum with a stout defense against the pass.

If this Jets team does not win a minimum of 11 games, not does not get to at least the 2nd round of the playoffs, then I would fire Saleh immediately.  

The only thing that can stop this team is insurmountable injuries once again, and if that happens, then I will once again be shaking my head with no clue as to why this continues to happen to the Jets.

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21 hours ago, Rangers9 said:

The thing with AR. If things go south will he be a team leader and upright guy or will he throw the org under the bus. Your guess is as good as mine. 

I'm not a Rogers fan by any means. I thought it was a dumb move then, I think it's a dumb move now. 

That being said, things went south last year. And he stuck with the team as a leader. I respect that. 

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honestly, i don't think he needs anything like a career year.  assuming the oline comes around and isn't too beaten up, the jets could get to seven wins by mainly handing off the ball to breece.  i think rodgers only needs something like 3200 yds, 24 tds, and 12 ints.  i think they need to score about 22 ppg or 374 total points.  24 td passes gets to 168.  throw in 2 fgs per game for another 102 and that leaves 104 pts needed by rushing, defense, and special teams.  this doesn't seem too hard.

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On 6/22/2024 at 8:23 PM, Rich Thornburgh said:

2:1 TD INT ratio with over 63% completion percentage 

So basically doing the same as he did in 2022 with a broken thumb. His ratios before that were more like 8:1 or better for virtually all of the 12 years prior. I'd say  throw for 25 or more TDs and a ratio of 3:1 is almost a slam dunk for him.

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5 minutes ago, Long Island Leprechaun said:

So basically doing the same as he did in 2022 with a broken thumb. His ratios before that were more like 8:1 or better for virtually all of the 12 years prior. I'd say  throw for 25 or more TDs and a ratio of 3:1 is almost a slam dunk for him.

 

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