Article: It’s critical the New York Jets don’t fully commit to the rigid big board

[stugotz81]

Strong pass on Quentin Williams for me as well.  Give me Bosa or Allen!  

It’s critical the New York Jets don’t fully commit to the rigid big board

By

 Robby Sabo

 -

 03/28/2019

Year after year, NFL Draft results prove “best available player” is fiction. It’s why the New York Jets can’t commit to the rigid big board.

Year after year, NFL Draft results prove “best available player” is fiction. It’s why the New York Jets can’t commit to the rigid big board.
Robby Sabo

The idea that Derwin James was a top-three selection one year ago today was a laughable, nonsensical notion. Hundreds of mocks had the now-Los Angeles Chargers stud safety chosen somewhere in the 7-to-10 range, but top three was out of the question.

Any thought put forth that suggested the New York Giants (No. 2) or Cleveland Browns (No. 4) select him that early was blasphemous. After all, the mock draft is law. It is the all-knowing bible that forced no team to ever consider deviation.

James eventually dropped to 17. He then finished as a First-Team All-Pro that capped off a phenomenal rookie campaign.

Draft results never match projected mocks. Results by way of productivity never match the actual slot selection. This information isn’t anything groundbreaking yet a teachable lesson must be remembered around this time every year.

Never should a team fully commit to the rigid big board.

Thanks to the craziness of NFL Draft season, the entire world seemingly locks themselves into certain preconceived notions. This season brings the same silly laws.

… how dare anybody think Rashan Gary could be chosen over Josh Allen.

… there’s no chance Drew Lock should go ahead of Dwayne Haskins.

… Jawaan Taylor could never be selected at third overall.

… no way Derwin James deserves to be selected over Denzel Ward (a 2018 goodie).

These ideas become concrete yet year after year, smash to pieces before our very eyes. Yet the world reverts back to similar preconceived notions the very next draft season.

For the New York Jets, it’s Nick Bosa, Josh Allen or Quinnen Williams. That’s it.

The mere mention of thinking left tackle at No. 3 throws the fanbase in a jolted state of hysteria. No way can Jawaan Taylor even be thought about when he’s projected in the latter part of the top 10.

Going in, there are two specific big boards in every draft room. There’s the generic board that attempts to decipher what the entirety of the league is thinking. This is used in a strategical form. Knowing the order of things is a must when on the horn with other organizations.

Then there’s the team big board that details priority based on two specific factors:

Best available player.
Best available player based on need.
“Best available player” is one hell of a loaded notion. As Derwin James proved a year ago (to go along with countless examples throughout the draft’s illustrious history), there’s really no such thing. The renaming of “best available player” to “best available player in the eyes of the organization” must come in swift form. More than an actual NFL reality, it’s a marketing ploy used to help conform the fanbase.

Through 28 total Mike Maccagnan selections, “best available player” has been the calling card.

Think Leonard Williams. New York was stocked at the 3-4 defensive end position at the time of Leo’s slippage. Muhammad Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson were both in tow. Damon Harrison was even still in town. Despite not having a legitimate starting position for the USC product, Maccagnan tabbed him the No. 6 pick in the 2015 NFL Draft.

Has the Big Cat worked out? I don’t know; you make the call. Personally, I expect more than 17 sacks and one Pro Bowl from of a “best talent in the pool” sort of player that simply couldn’t be turned away when the position was already set in-house. Either way, it forced Richardson to hilariously attempt to play out of position along the edge for the majority of the season while making it impossible for Todd Bowles to run a legitimate defense with quick enough edges.

“Best available player” has turned into just two offensive line selections over four seasons (zero over the last two). Both picks came in the fifth round (Jarvis Harrison in 2015 and Brandon Shell in 2016). The state of New York’s current O-line fits in with the worst in the league.

LT: Kelvin Beachum, 30 years old
LG: Kelechi Osemele, 30 years old (when training camp opens)
? N/A
RG: Brian Winters, 28 years old (when training camp opens)
RT: Brandon Shell, 27 years old
Of course, snagging either Nick Bosa and Josh Allen fit the bill. As dire as the offensive line looks, the defensive edge is just as rough. The problem comes when strategy stops there and nothing else can be entertained unless a trade commences.

Per Mike Maccagnan reports, the Jets have thrown the No. 3 pick on the market. It’s the absolute right move concerning the current 53-man depth chart. Without a second-round pick and needing edge rushers and line help desperately, trading down and collecting assets the no-doubt-about-it greatest possible move.

This is the area the generic big board needs to be rigidly abided by.

Based on projected selections is how these deals work. Mix in the projected draft with Jimmy Johnson‘s revised value draft chart and a clear formula is presented. If a trade doesn’t go down, however, there’s nothing outlandish in selecting Taylor with the No. 3 pick.

The Florida product is slated as this year’s top offensive lineman, ahead of Alabama’s Jonah Williams. The problem fans see is that he’s projected somewhere in the 6-to-10 range. It’d be considered blasphemy to think of Taylor at No. 3.

The Jets can’t think this way; not if they really like the kid.

To me, Quinnen Williams is a no-no. He plays Leo’s position, the 3-technique. He’s not bigger than Leo, meaning he and Leo together in the 4-3 base makes no sense. Leo’s sidekick in that scenario should be a 1-technique/nose tackle type. Quinnen works in the 3-4 opposite Leo, but where does that leave Henry Anderson? Moreover, as currently constituted, the subpackage look is already set with Leo and Henry along the interior.

Quinnen makes no sense with dire needs still on the table. But alas, the dreaded “best available player” may strike again (just as it did in 2015).

Then there’s Sam Darnold, the kid whose arm literally represents an entire future. Is Mike Maccagnan truly comfortable entering another season with a well below-average offensive line in front of the future of the organization?

Running on four years now, the O-line excuses have piled up. Like a terrible dream, each offseason presented a new narrative for why the line would suddenly improve.

In 2016, Ryan Clady‘s presence in replacing the deteriorating D’Brickashaw Ferguson would be enough. A year later, Kelvin Beachum replacing Clady and Wesley Johnson would infuse talent into a stale group. In 2018, Spencer Long would eliminate the scapegoat, Johnson, while Brian Winters would get back to his nasty ways after battling injuries all of 2017.

The patchwork never works. Until premium talent is drafted up front, Darnold will be left in a dangerous position. Even if a center is drafted in the third round, the line would still represent a scary proposition heading into the summer.

It’s why Jawaan Taylor or even Jonah Williams can’t be eliminated from the conversation at No. 3. There’s nothing more important right now than ensuring the organization’s health (Sam Darnold) and this includes edge.

Admittedly, I have no idea whether a Taylor gamble at No. 3 is the right choice. Both Bosa and Allen possess the goods at a position the Jets haven’t felt comfortable since John Abraham roamed Giants Stadium. But that’s why trading down is so critical; the two most important units of a football team (save for quarterback), offensive line and four-man conventional pass rush, are currently as bare as a Janet Jackson body part at the Super Bowl.

If a trade doesn’t happen, though, Mike Maccagnan cannot force himself into the silly “best available player” notion. It has to be edge or O-line. It has to remain flexible. And the lesson that the rigid big board going into every NFL Draft never turns out to hold truth must be written over 10 times on the war room white board.

https://elitesportsny.com/2019/03/28/new-york-jets-critical-do-not-fully-commit-to-rigid-big-board/

[Ohio State NY Jets fan]

Dead on, sounds like many posters here - and even with 3 first round picks the Dline was never dominant and the UDFA was the best player - back when the Oline had 3 first round picks, the Jets had one of the leading rushers in the NFL and almost made chez look like a QB

[varjet]

He is on the right track.  

[BroadwayRay]

It's true we can get locked into certain players at certain draft spots. I had been thinking Josh Allen was a lock for #3 if the Jets picked there. After reading scouting reports and measurables for the JN mock draft, however, I've started thinking that Brian Burns might be an even better pick.

[Augustiniak]

I think th ideal scenario for mccagnan is he trades with the giants and takes Taylor.  If they go beyond 7 the jags may take him.  

Mccagnan seems like a gm who is overly influenced by the HC and i can see gase getting in his ear about needing more OL.  At least hopefully.

[Nixhead]

Just trade down so we can get a pass rusher and an O Lineman. It’s that simple.  Mac though hasn’t shown the ability to trade down successfully yet. There’s always a first time. 

[RoadFan]

I saw this piece as well.  Writer makes a compelling argument.

[Patriot Killa]

This is actually a fantastic article and says just about everything I’ve been preaching since the offseason started. 

Ja’Wuan Taylor is someone I’d consider for the Jets.

[Jetsfan80]

When did Jawaan Taylor shoot up the draft board?  I must have missed that.

[HighPitch]

If a trade down doesnt materialize I would not be upset at all if they shocked us with the florida OL guy.

I would add that the jets are in a wierd position where even a “bad” trade down would be better than staying put at 3.

id swap the 3 for 10 and a second rounder even. Wed be better off with a guy like jawaan taylor and wr debo samuels in the 2nd than allen alone at 3 imo. So draft value chart be damned this year. I know, i know youre going to rip on me now

[HighPitch]

1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said:

When did Jawaan Taylor shoot up the draft board?  I must have missed that.

Hes been consistently mocked as a top 10

[Augustiniak]

3 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

When did Jawaan Taylor shoot up the draft board?  I must have missed that.

Most mocks i read have him going top 10 and many of these having him going to Jax at 7.  

[Ohhthepain]

Robby Sabo is the ?. Highly recommended

[Jetsfan80]

6 minutes ago, HighPitch said:

Hes been consistently mocked as a top 10

 

4 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

Most mocks i read have him going top 10 and many of these having him going to Jax at 7.  

 

Interesting.  Just thought that Jonah Williams was the consensus top OL, because there weren't any franchise LT's in this draft.  If Jawaan Taylor has a chance to be a LT, I like him more than Jonah. 

[Augustiniak]

Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

 

 

Interesting.  Just thought that Jonah Williams was the consensus top OL, because there weren't any franchise LT's in this draft.  If Jawaan Taylor has a chance to be a LT, I like him more than Jonah. 

I think a few OTs have passed him at least in mocks.  If the jets trade out of the top 10 though i can see them taking the top center.

[Jetsfan80]

1 minute ago, Augustiniak said:

I think a few OTs have passed him at least in mocks.  If the jets trade out of the top 10 though i can see them taking the top center.

If we trade down anywhere in the Top 15 and take a Center there, I will start a riot.

Late 1st/Round 2 is where we should target a C.  No earlier. 

[dbatesman]

uhh Macc’s big board has gotten us the best player in the draft on two separate occasions, so

[JetFreak89]

6 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

 

Interesting.  Just thought that Jonah Williams was the consensus top OL, because there weren't any franchise LT's in this draft.  If Jawaan Taylor has a chance to be a LT, I like him more than Jonah. 

Overall consensus is he is more of a traditional NFL LT than Jonah so that is why he took over the #1 spot. 

[Augustiniak]

5 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

If we trade down anywhere in the Top 15 and take a Center there, I will start a riot.

Late 1st/Round 2 is where we should target a C.  No earlier. 

Mccagnan has a way of overreacting, and all i’m Saying is that if we trade back with the redskins i can see them taking a C.  But this is still a long shot.  

 

[JetFaninMI]

The main focus should be keeping Sam upright. OL must be Paramount in this year's draft. Would I be pissed if they went OL at 3? NO.

Trading out of the pick has to be the focus. If not and Bosa isn't there I wouldn't be upset if they drafted an OL. Sam should be given every opportunity to succeed. A strong OL is the start of that. Everything else is secondary.

 

[Jetsfan80]

7 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

uhh Macc’s big board has gotten us the best player in the draft on two separate occasions, so

We didn't expect them to fall to us, so we had to take them.  Had to. 

[jetsons]

9 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

If we trade down anywhere in the Top 15 and take a Center there, I will start a riot.

Late 1st/Round 2 is where we should target a C.  No earlier. 

Your comment just shot down the above article. ?

[derp]

Not a fan of the article. In general, it entirely glosses over the fact that this is not a prioritization or strategy issue but an evaluation issue. The Leonard Williams pick is an excellent example. Mike Maccagnan took Leonard Williams because he thought he was going to be an elite defensive tackle. Leonard Williams is not an elite defensive tackle. Why would we prefer Maccagnan is taking the guy who he thinks is going to be the best edge rusher in that scenario? Are we getting an increased likelihood of success? If the issue is that Williams isn't good why would the best guy at a need position be good?

Cherry picking Derwin James isn't particularly compelling. If teams felt he'd be an All Pro he would have gone higher. Him going 17 isn't indicative of bad draft strategy, just bad evaluation. You can cherry pick examples of teams being unsuccessful when drafting for need, too.

He addresses Quinnen Williams being a mistake at #3 but not Allen and Bosa - who happen to be likely potential BPA's at positions of need. Mentions Williams isn't a fit with Jets personnel in a 4-3 because you'd need a NT next to Leonard Williams - Quinnen Williams played some NT at Alabama. I agree I'd rather they don't take Williams but that whole portion is sloppy.

Discusses the offensive line not being drafted but glosses over it being Maccagnan's philosophy that you draft OL late and not related to the BPA approach he's against. Despite knocking the idea that one prospect has to be the best at their position - just focuses on one offensive tackle.

[Jetsfan80]

1 minute ago, jetsons said:

Your comment just shot down the above article. ?

I mean, it doesn't take a genius to recognize that position value is important.  You don't take Kickers, Punters, Centers, Guards, ILB's or Box Safeties in the top 10. 

[Paradis]

1 hour ago, stugotz81 said:

 

Through 28 total Mike Maccagnan selections, “best available player” has been the calling card.

Think Leonard Williams. New York was stocked at the 3-4 defensive end position at the time of Leo’s slippage. Muhammad Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson were both in tow. Damon Harrison was even still in town. Despite not having a legitimate starting position for the USC product, Maccagnan tabbed him the No. 6 pick in the 2015 NFL Draft.

Has the Big Cat worked out? I don’t know; you make the call. Personally, I expect more than 17 sacks and one Pro Bowl from of a “best talent in the pool” sort of player that simply couldn’t be turned away when the position was already set in-house. Either way, it forced Richardson to hilariously attempt to play out of position along the edge for the majority of the season while making it impossible for Todd Bowles to run a legitimate defense with quick enough edges.

“Best available player” has turned into just two offensive line selections over four seasons (zero over the last two). Both picks came in the fifth round (Jarvis Harrison in 2015 and Brandon Shell in 2016). The state of New York’s current O-line fits in with the worst in the league.

To me, Quinnen Williams is a no-no. He plays Leo’s position, the 3-technique. He’s not bigger than Leo, meaning he and Leo together in the 4-3 base makes no sense. Leo’s sidekick in that scenario should be a 1-technique/nose tackle type. Quinnen works in the 3-4 opposite Leo, but where does that leave Henry Anderson? Moreover, as currently constituted, the subpackage look is already set with Leo and Henry along the interior.

Quinnen makes no sense with dire needs still on the table. But alas, the dreaded “best available player” may strike again (just as it did in 2015).

Admittedly, I have no idea whether a Taylor gamble at No. 3 is the right choice. Both Bosa and Allen possess the goods at a position the Jets haven’t felt comfortable since John Abraham roamed Giants Stadium. But that’s why trading down is so critical; the two most important units of a football team (save for quarterback), offensive line and four-man conventional pass rush, are currently as bare as a Janet Jackson body part at the Super Bowl.

If a trade doesn’t happen, though, Mike Maccagnan cannot force himself into the silly “best available player” notion. It has to be edge or O-line. It has to remain flexible. And the lesson that the rigid big board going into every NFL Draft never turns out to hold truth must be written over 10 times on the war room white board.

https://elitesportsny.com/2019/03/28/new-york-jets-critical-do-not-fully-commit-to-rigid-big-board/

Thank god i'm not insane. 

[Beerfish]

But...... Quinnen Leo Sheldon Quinton Muhammed Williams is a gap penetrating beast who will live in the backfield, get pressure up the middle (which is how you win in this league) and is a generational talent!  You just do not turn your back on that kind of once in a decade player!

[Barry McCockinner]

This article makes a lot of sense to me.

Is Taylor actually projected as a left tackle though? I though he would be a right tackle in the NFL? That's just based on things I've read - could definitely be wrong.

For the first time in forever we have an offensive head coach. The off season has had more of an offensive feel to it than normal so far. While the HC is not the GM, all GM's work with the HC to varying degrees. Gase will have input on the draft and despite what the big board says I am having a hard time imagining a defensive player taken #3 overall for that reason.

Obviously a trade down is the preferred approach, but I won't be the least bit surprised if we go offense at #3.

[Pac]

blah blah blah..  if Macc is stuck at 3 and took Jonah Williams over Nick Bosa he should be fired.

[UnitedWhofans]

While the article is right in theory, this year the OL talent in the draft is not that good compared to the other line.And reaching for OL can be disastrous.

Trading out is the only way I see gettingg a top OL prospect in the first round 

[peebag]

1 hour ago, Nixhead said:

Just trade down so we can get a pass rusher and an O Lineman. It’s that simple.  Mac though hasn’t shown the ability to trade down successfully yet. There’s always a first time. 

Go back and look at the last time the Jets traded down in the first.

[Augustiniak]

4 minutes ago, UnitedWhofans said:

While the article is right in theory, this year the OL talent in the draft is not that good compared to the other line.And reaching for OL can be disastrous.

Trading out is the only way I see gettingg a top OL prospect in the first round 

For all these top rated defensive players every year, has this propelled teams to the playoffs?  Or has Goff, wentz, mahomes, and offensive weapons been the drivers?  

If the jets took the best OL in the draft in the first round the next few years it would serve the team better than constantly overdrafting defensive players who don’t change games.

[Ohhthepain]

25 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

But...... Quinnen Leo Sheldon Quinton Muhammed Williams is a gap penetrating beast who will live in the backfield, get pressure up the middle (which is how you win in this league) and is a generational talent!  You just do not turn your back on that kind of once in a decade player!

Heard that one before !!!

[CTM]

53 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

uhh Macc’s big board has gotten us the best player in the draft on two separate occasions, so

2?

William's, Adams, Darnold and coming next, bosa

[themeangreenkillingmachine]

Q Williams would be the 4th 3/4 DE the jets would have drafted in the 1st rd in the past 9 years. The past 9 years the jets have failed to reach the playoffs and have never had a great defense

please. Do not draft another 3/4 de

[dbatesman]

1 minute ago, CTM said:

2?

William's, Adams, Darnold and coming next, bosa

just stackin em up. in the personnel guy business, we call that a Macc Stacc