Competence and Confidence in the Front Office - My Draft Review

[jetstream23]

There’s an adult in the room in Florham Park again.  The Jets executed a competent Draft that showed there was a plan and the Jets now understand the intersection of value and need.

Positives

1. Trading down to build depth and add more picks for 2021.  We now accumulate picks rather than give them up.  Joe D paid it forward AND got his guys.

2. Addressing the biggest positional needs (OT, WR, Edge, CB) with good prospects.  I think Joe found the intersection of talent/value/need at the right spots, especially the Mims pick at 59.  It took balls to move down from 48 with Mims on the Board. Of the countless mock drafts I’ve done there wasn’t a single one where I could get one of the Top 4 OTs (ex. Becton) and Denzel Mims.  Joe D had the confidence to make that move.  He assessed the teams behind him and took a calculated risk that paid off.

3. Using Day 3 picks to check the box ✅ for unheralded positions like Backup QB and P.  The Jets lost games last year partially due to depth at QB and some bad special teams (we still have a K issue).  But the picks of QB Morgan and P Mann were very solid even if not sexy.

4. Just like Free Agency, Joe D seemed to pay 80 cents for every $1 of value he got.  Mims at 59, Bryce Hall in Round 5....just fantastic value.  Not trading up for an OT despite some panicky news reports early on Thursday about a run on OTs in the Top 10. Another sign of a guy being very aware and astute when it comes to how the Draft will flow and where he can get certain guys.

5. Having positional foresight at the FS spot to take Ashtyn Davis so that Douglas isn’t stuck with negotiating extensions for both of the Jets starting Safeties in the next 12 months.  I wasn’t thrilled with this pick initially (due to opportunity cost, see below) but Davis is an elite athlete, a true Free Safety, and shows that Douglas has clearly placed his bet on what he wants to do at Safety.  An extension of Jamal went from about 55% odds to about 90% during this Draft because A.) Jamal obviously wasn’t traded and B.) With 10 picks in this Draft the Jets didn’t draft a SS, instead gaining leverage over their FS Marcus Maye.

6. Picking P Braden Mann in Round 6 showed that the Jets understand ST can be a weapon.  THIS WAS A GREGG WILLIAMS PICK! ....Huh?  What is jetstream23 talking about?  Think of it this way...  In tight games, in tied games, in games with a 3 point lead, having a player that can pin the opponent’s offense deep, can stick them inside their own 10 yard line....that empowers Gregg Williams’ defense.  It will let him dial up some attacking blitzes.  Mann is a weapon on Special Teams.

Negatives

1. Only getting 1 WR.  Yes, UDFA’s are options but there was some talent on the board at multiple spots throughout the Draft to get an additional high quality WR in Rounds 3 or 4, particularly after the trade downs.  With 10 total picks this is a slight disappointment. Duvernay and Bryan Edwards come to mind.  Donovan Peoples-Jones, AGG were there for the taking multiple times on Day 3.

2. Valuing athleticism over production in some spots with players that have injury concerns.  At the #68 spot Wisconsin OLB/Edge rusher Zack Baun was there for the taking.  Whether the drug/diluted sample issue was a big deal or not vis-a-vis the earlier pick of Becton, it was very hard to pass on this guy.  The Jets took FS Davis in that spot and then came back at Edge with Zuniga.  So, I’m glad the Edge position was addressed in that round but we took an athletic guy with injury concerns.  The 3rd round is where I differed with the Jets on the player selection.  Really thought this was the round to grab Baun and do the double-dip at WR with a guy like Duvernay.

3. Waiting on CB to very late in the Draft.  I like the calculated risk of Bryce Hall.  He’s a 2nd/3rd round talent we got in the 5th.....this feels like a Bless Austin pick.  Talented guy but could be on the shelf for awhile due to injuries.  The Jets also used a 6th rounder to trade for CB Quincy W. from Indy.  So CB was addressed twice in the Draft, just not before Round 5.

I’m giving the Jets a B+ overall.  This Draft was impressive from the standpoint of getting needed players at the spots they should have been taken (or even later like with Mims and Hall).  There’s now an adult in the room.  There’s competence in the front office.  Joe put on a bit of a masterclass and every thing I pointed out as a negative could very easily look like a positive in 12 months if guys like Zuniga and Davis seem to be starters.  My gripes (here and in other threads) about passing on guys like Baun, Willekes, Duvernay, Bryan Edwards, etc. will probably just show why guys like Joe Douglas are a GM and I’m just throwing out opinions on a message board. 

[Jetstream]

7 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

 

4. Just like Free Agency, Joe D seemed to pay 80 cents for every $1 of value he got.  Mims at 59, Bryce Hall in Round 5....just fantastic value.  Not trading up for an OT despite some panicky news reports early on Thursday about a run on OTs in the Top 10. Another sign of a guy being very aware and astute when it comes to how the Draft will flow and where he can get certain guys.

 

nice write up.. for the "panicky news reports" I love that he had a trade in place to use if there was a run on OT's

[32EBoozer]

Good write up. Remember, we were not the only teams to pass a number of times on those wideouts. It just so happens that we were the most deficient at that position. I still believe Perriman and Crowder and Mims will give us a solid group of receivers.Very little depth however. 

[southtown24th]

Just now, 32EBoozer said:

Good write up. Remember, we were not the only teams to pass a number of times on those wideouts. It just so happens that we were the deficient at that position. I still believe Perriman and Crowder and Mims will give us a solid group of receivers.Very little depth however. 

and Enunwa

[jetstream23]

1 minute ago, southtown24th said:

and Enunwa

[Barry McCockinner]

26 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

There’s an adult in the room in Florham Park again.  The Jets executed a competent Draft that showed there was a plan and the Jets now understand the intersection of value and need.

Positives

1. Trading down to build depth and add more picks for 2021.  We now accumulate picks rather than give them up.  Joe D paid it forward AND got his guys.

2. Addressing the biggest positional needs (OT, WR, Edge, CB) with good prospects.  I think Joe found the intersection of talent/value/need at the right spots, especially the Mims pick at 59.  It took balls to move down from 48 with Mims on the Board. Of the countless mock drafts I’ve done there wasn’t a single one where I could get one of the Top 4 OTs (ex. Becton) and Denzel Mims.  Joe D had the confidence to make that move.  He assessed the teams behind him and took a calculated risk that paid off.

3. Using Day 3 picks to check the box ✅ for unheralded positions like Backup QB and P.  The Jets lost games last year partially due to depth at QB and some bad special teams (we still have a K issue).  But the picks of QB Morgan and P Mann were very solid even if not sexy.

4. Just like Free Agency, Joe D seemed to pay 80 cents for every $1 of value he got.  Mims at 59, Bryce Hall in Round 5....just fantastic value.  Not trading up for an OT despite some panicky news reports early on Thursday about a run on OTs in the Top 10. Another sign of a guy being very aware and astute when it comes to how the Draft will flow and where he can get certain guys.

5. Having positional foresight at the FS spot to take Ashtyn Davis so that Douglas isn’t stuck with negotiating extensions for both of the Jets starting Safeties in the next 12 months.  I wasn’t thrilled with this pick initially (due to opportunity cost, see below) but Davis is an elite athlete, a true Free Safety, and shows that Douglas has clearly placed his bet on what he wants to do at Safety.  An extension of Jamal went from about 55% odds to about 90% during this Draft because A.) Jamal obviously wasn’t traded and B.) With 10 picks in this Draft the Jets didn’t draft a SS, instead gaining leverage over their FS Marcus Maye.

6. Picking P Braden Mann in Round 6 showed that the Jets understand ST can be a weapon.  THIS WAS A GREGG WILLIAMS PICK! ....Huh?  What is jetstream23 talking about?  Think of it this way...  In tight games, in tied games, in games with a 3 point lead, having a player that can pin the opponent’s offense deep, can stick them inside their own 10 yard line....that empowers Gregg Williams’ defense.  It will let him dial up some attacking blitzes.  Mann is a weapon on Special Teams.

Negatives

1. Only getting 1 WR.  Yes, UDFA’s are options but there was some talent on the board at multiple spots throughout the Draft to get an additional high quality WR in Rounds 3 or 4, particularly after the trade downs.  With 10 total picks this is a slight disappointment. Duvernay and Bryan Edwards comes to mind.  Donovan Peoples-Jones, AGG were there for the taking multiple times on Day 3.

2. Valuing athleticism over production in some spots with players that have injury concerns.  At the #68 spot Wisconsin OLB/Edge rusher Zack Baun was there for the taking.  Whether the drug/diluted sample issue was a big deal or not vis-a-vis the earlier pick of Becton, it was very hard to pass on this guy.  The Jets took FS Davis in that spot and then came back at Edge with Zuniga.  So, I’m glad the Edge position was addressed in that round but we took an athletic guy with injury concerns.  The 3rd round is where I differed with the Jets on the player selection.  Really thought this was the round to grab Baun and do the double-dip at WR with a guy like Duvernay.

3. Waiting on CB to very late in the Draft.  I like the calculated risk of Bryce Hall.  He’s a 2nd/3rd round talent we got in the 5th.....this feels like a Bless Austin pick.  Talented guy but could be on the shelf for awhile due to injuries.  The Jets also used a 6th rounder to trade for CB Quincy W. from Indy.  So CB was addressed twice in the Draft, just not before Round 5.

I’m giving the Jets a B+ overall.  This Draft was impressive from the standpoint of getting needed players at the spots they should have been taken (or even later like with Mims and Hall).  There’s now an adult in the room.  There’s competence in the front office.  Joe put on a bit of a masterclass and every thing I pointed out as a negative could very easily look like a positive in 12 months if guys like Zuniga and Davis seem to be starters.  My gripes (here and in other threads) about passing on guys like Baun, Willekes, Duvernay, Bryan Edwards, etc. will probably just show why guys like Joe Douglas are a GM and I’m just throwing out opinions on a message board. 

Nice write up - we seem to agree on a lot.

[Skeptable]

26 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

3. Waiting on CB to very late in the Draft.  I like the calculated risk of Bryce Hall.  He’s a 2nd/3rd round talent we got in the 5th.....this feels like a Bless Austin pick.  Talented guy but could be on the shelf for awhile due to injuries.  The Jets also used a 6th rounder to trade for CB Quincy W. from Indy.  So CB was addressed twice in the Draft, just not before Round 5.

Trading for Wilson should not be underrated and has now signed 4 more UDFA DBs... It shows that he shares the same concern as you and knows he can't fix it all at once.

[TheNuuFaaolaExperience]

Next on NFL Films - Competence and Confidence in the Front Office - The Joe Douglas Story. 

[jetstream23]

1 minute ago, Skeptable said:

Trading for Wilson should not be underrated and has now signed 4 more UDFA DBs... It shows that he shares the same concern as you and knows he can't fix it all at once.

I get it but what’s up with the all the former Colts’ CBs?

Hairston, Desir and now Quincy Wilson???  Is Indianapolis some Cornerback powerhouse with excessive talent that teams are looking to tap?

Just seems odd.

[jetstream23]

Just now, TheNuuFaaolaExperience said:

Next on NFL Films - Competence and Confidence in the Front Office - The Joe Douglas Story. 

A Football Life.  15 years from now.  Joe Douglas sitting in his home office with two Lombardi trophies behind him. 

[Skeptable]

Just now, jetstream23 said:

I get it but what’s up with the all the former Colts’ CBs?

Hairston, Desir and now Quincy Wilson???  Is Indianapolis some Cornerback powerhouse with excessive talent that teams are looking to tap?

Just seems odd.

Hogan drafted them all. And Indy was stacked at DBs

[Jetsfan80]

Just now, jetstream23 said:

I get it but what’s up with the all the former Colts’ CBs?

Hairston, Desir and now Quincy Wilson???  Is Indianapolis some Cornerback powerhouse with excessive talent that teams are looking to tap?

Just seems odd.

Assistant GM Rex Hogan was the VP of Player Personnel in Indy before joining JD's staff.  That's the connection that made those moves happen. 

[jetstream23]

6 minutes ago, Skeptable said:

Hogan drafted them all. And Indy was stacked at DBs

 

6 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Assistant GM Rex Hogan was the VP of Player Personnel in Indy before joining JD's staff.  That's the connection that made those moves happen. 

Understood....but does that knowledge mean the Colts were the best/only source of CB trades?  I like that we really know what we’re getting in these guys due to Hogan’s intimate knowledge of them, so the cost/value is probably right which is good.  It still just seems odd that we’ve now gotten 3 CBs from the Colts in the past 10 months.

[smaxor5]

34 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

I get it but what’s up with the all the former Colts’ CBs?

Hairston, Desir and now Quincy Wilson???  Is Indianapolis some Cornerback powerhouse with excessive talent that teams are looking to tap?

Just seems odd.

He seems to think the Colts are idiots about their defense...can't say I disagree with him

[JohnnyLV]

1 hour ago, southtown24th said:

and Enunwa

I have more chance to have sex with Scarelett Johanssen and Charlize Theron at the same time than Enunwa playing another down for us.

[NOSIDE]

Hey correct me if I’m wrong... 

Seems like all the players that got multi year deals - GVR, McGovern, Lewis- JOE D didn’t draft those positions 

The guys with 1 year deals- Fant is essentially 1 year, Jordan Jenkins, Poole, Desir, Perriman - We drafted all those positions in case we don’t re sign those guys. Is that accurate?

if so, that’s extremely calculated and executed! 
 

[Dupe]

So many lament not picking up late wide recievers.   Will we ever hear the names Duvernay, Bryan Edwards, Donovan Peoples-Jones and AGG?  Probably not much. 

[flgreen]

1 hour ago, southtown24th said:

and Enunwa

Yeah

This is a player I really liked.  Sadly his odds of coming back are really low with his recurring neck injury.

Still a mistake to totally write him off.  

[pdxgreen]

1 hour ago, jetstream23 said:

A Football Life.  15 years from now.  Joe Douglas sitting in his home office with two Lombardi trophies behind him. 

I'd like to make it four.

[Jetsfan80]

Understood....but does that knowledge mean the Colts were the best/only source of CB trades?  I like that we really know what we’re getting in these guys due to Hogan’s intimate knowledge of them, so the cost/value is probably right which is good.  It still just seems odd that we’ve now gotten 3 CBs from the Colts in the past 10 months.

They switched to a brand new defensive scheme with more zone just last season. My guess is they needed to get rid of all the man to man corners and this was their best route to doing so.

[JetBlue]

1 hour ago, Dupe said:

So many lament not picking up late wide recievers.   Will we ever hear the names Duvernay, Bryan Edwards, Donovan Peoples-Jones and AGG?  Probably not much. 

Keep telling yourself that.  I don't know why we feel the need to downplay these players.  Yet if we had taken them you would taking about how we got great sleeper blah blah.   Those four you just mentioned will make an impact on some NFL team.  

[Greenbloodblitz]

Good post dude well-thought-out informative and optimistic.

[JetFan20]

I think hated the 3rd round picks, but could live with everything else. 

Had they picked Hennessy at 68 and Duvernay at 79 this draft would have been terrific. Instead the Jets go back to their old ways and draft two older developmental prospects on defense. 

The Denzel Mims pick also concerns me as his profile is so much similar to Devin Smith and Stephen Hill. I get that his size/athleticism is enticing, but hands and route running need to be polished in the NFL.
 

 

[Claymation]

Hennessy isn’t the type of offensive lineman that the Jets are looking for, they are looking to draft OL that are trying to annihilate their opponent at the point of attack and finish them. Joe is looking to weaponize this OL as the calling card of this franchise.

You have seen the blueprint of the type of player that Joe wants to deploy throughout this line. One that sets the tone for the rest of team. Hennessy isn’t that type of player anymore.

[mrcoops]

1 hour ago, JetFan20 said:

I think hated the 3rd round picks, but could live with everything else. 

Had they picked Hennessy at 68 and Duvernay at 79 this draft would have been terrific. Instead the Jets go back to their old ways and draft two older developmental prospects on defense. 

The Denzel Mims pick also concerns me as his profile is so much similar to Devin Smith and Stephen Hill. I get that his size/athleticism is enticing, but hands and route running need to be polished in the NFL.
 

 

Davis and Zuniga should both have roles right away. Davis will play a lot in multiple DB looks and on STs, and Zuniga will likely be used as a rusher n passing situations initially.

Davis is a year older than your average rookie, but he is not a developmental player. Zuniga is not over-aged at all - he's 22.

[predator_05]

I will summarize Douglas' vision and the principles underpinning his decision-making.

These principles will filter down to each and every level of the organization.

Note the usage of the words: should, must, and will.

 

1. The roster must be an athletic and physically imposing roster. Exceptional speed or power should be the norm, and must be visible across all position groups. A lineman must play with above-average power. A wide receiver must attack defenses with above-average speed at any of the 3 levels. An edge-rusher or defensive back must possess above-average explosiveness from their stance.

The underlying principle and action: Athleticism is innate, transferable to the professional level, and allows for creation of competitive advantage. The team will screen college-level production for athleticism.

 

2. The roster must be built around self-motivated leaders. Player acquisitions should conform to a desired profile, and every player on the roster must be committed to the game of football. The critical question to ask: how will the player respond to sitting on the bench? A positive response must be a pre-requisite for further discussion. Prospective signings that are late round, un-drafted, or former busts must demonstrate a desire to play their best. Draft picks must either be team captains or strongly self-motivated by some form of adversity or rejection.

The underlying principle and action: motivation and leadership traits will form part of the player's existing profile. The team will not screen or rehabilitate knuckle-heads.

[GREENBEAN]

nice write up.. for the "panicky news reports" I love that he had a trade in place to use if there was a run on OT's

Hey. What is that all about. I was moving all weekend and could only keep track of the picks themselves. What is the trade you are mentioning here? Thanks


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

[Bowles Movement]

7 hours ago, JetBlue said:

Keep telling yourself that.  I don't know why we feel the need to downplay these players.  Yet if we had taken them you would taking about how we got great sleeper blah blah.   Those four you just mentioned will make an impact on some NFL team.  

Definitely wanted Duvernay and Edwards.  Thought they’d be fine 4-5 receivers.  Maybe they factored special teams play into it?

[Jetstream]

3 hours ago, GREENBEAN said:

Hey. What is that all about. I was moving all weekend and could only keep track of the picks themselves. What is the trade you are mentioning here? Thanks


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

I had heard someone on one of the shows mention it, but only thing written i can find is the deal he supposedly had ready with the Eagles for Dillard...

[jetstream23]

4 hours ago, GREENBEAN said:

Hey. What is that all about. I was moving all weekend and could only keep track of the picks themselves. What is the trade you are mentioning here? Thanks


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

There were rumors in the afternoon on Thursday prior to Round 1 that there was going to be a "run on Tackles early" and that the Jets were exploring ways to trade up from #11 and get ahead of Cleveland.  This seemed to be confirmed in an article about the Jaguars draft where direct quotes were attributed to their GM Caldwell saying the Jets had a good package to come up to #9.  The Jags were also talking to Atlanta about coming up to #9 but didn't like the offer as much.  In any case, once Miami (5 - Tua), Chargers (6-Herbert), Carolina (7 - Brown), and Arizona (8 - Simmons) all passed on OT the Jets called the Jags and saying, "we're staying put."  Douglas had assessed that he didn't want to move up to #9, that the Jaguars wouldn't take an OT, and that even with CLE likely taking an OT he'd still be left with a choice of 2 OTs.

It was smart not to panic and not to leapfrog Cleveland.  Joe didn't panic but obviously had a contingency in place.  My guess is that if Miami or Arizona had taken an OT like Becton then the Jets may have moved up.

[jetstream23]

5 hours ago, predator_05 said:

I will summarize Douglas' vision and the principles underpinning his decision-making.

These principles will filter down to each and every level of the organization.

Note the usage of the words: should, must, and will.

 

1. The roster must be an athletic and physically imposing roster. Exceptional speed or power should be the norm, and must be visible across all position groups. A lineman must play with above-average power. A wide receiver must attack defenses with above-average speed at any of the 3 levels. An edge-rusher or defensive back must possess above-average explosiveness from their stance.

The underlying principle and action: Athleticism is innate, transferable to the professional level, and allows for creation of competitive advantage. The team will screen college-level production for athleticism.

 

2. The roster must be built around self-motivated leaders. Player acquisitions should conform to a desired profile, and every player on the roster must be committed to the game of football. The critical question to ask: how will the player respond to sitting on the bench? A positive response must be a pre-requisite for further discussion. Prospective signings that are late round, un-drafted, or former busts must demonstrate a desire to play their best. Draft picks must either be team captains or strongly self-motivated by some form of adversity or rejection.

The underlying principle and action: motivation and leadership traits will form part of the player's existing profile. The team will not screen or rehabilitate knuckle-heads.

Excellent point on #2.  How many former college team Captains did we draft this past weekend?  4?

These guys are all high-character leaders who will become culture-builders here.

[Copernicus]

Awesome take Jetstream , I’m not surprised.

Honestly I think Joe Douglas is had a very good day, not good, very good. I, like you, wished we took at least one more drafted Wr and it would have been great in my opinion

And that’s the thing, “in my opinion,”  I’m not Joe Douglas and feel confident that he passed on players for a good reason that I thought were no brainers at the time. 
 

With that said, I did not agree with a few pics. Didn’t understand the the QB pick until I read that the Patriots possibly wanted him and we do not have the cap space for what we want to do with priding FAs and sign a back up veteran QBs. Did I scratch my head (putting that lightly) when we took a safety? Yes. Did I do the same when we took Zuniga? Hell yeah. I was like Josh Jones! Ezra Cleveland!  Henessy! Cushenberry!! Gandy Golden!! Peoples Jones!!! The Prince!!! Then we take a Qb? What!?? A punter??? WTF!?? Then I took a breathe, read up on some of the reasoning behind the picks (like Ashtyn Davis an athletic freak projected to go late first round/ like the punter who is the best prospect in years and we now don’t have to resign the one we have and can use that money elsewhere ).
 

But again, who am I? Douglas knows best. What sold me was the trade down in round two and still getting Mims. Douglas’s skill, balls, luck, brilliance , whatever, even if Mims fails, it was an area of need and he did not panic and gained valuable picks for a team that needs and overhaul of players.

Secondly, and this really solidified it for me was the trade down of the last 3d we gained from the previous  trade mentioned, to trade with Bellicheck and gain two 4ths and a 6 next year.
 

Trading with Bellicheck!!!? On draft day!??? So much pressure to get it right. A lesser GM would have played it safe and not want to get involved. Not Noe Douglas! Just wow! The balls on the first year GM!

I am total fine with it because I do not know more than Joe Douglas (or any NFL scout/executive) BUT the difference is that I have confidence after what Douglas did to maneuver during this draft.  After seeing how he controlled  the draft and gained 10 players plus some real interesting undrafted free agents I feel real good about this .
 

Statistically all of these players and moves will most likely not pan out.  But I feel real confident moving forward with Douglas as GM.  You gotta love what you saw from Douglas over the past few days. 

[jetstream23]

Agreed @Copernicus... we just don't know about the actual players until we see them.  He hit the positions we needed, he accumulated more picks, and we have to trust that he knows a LOT more than we do about actual players.

Other than not getting a second WR, the two specific player/pick criticisms I most have are passing on Baun at 68 (validated when the Saints took him at 74) and passing on RB McFarland (taken a few spots later by Pittsburgh).  I was also pulling hard for Kenny Willekes.  I thought he would been the perfect pick to end the Draft in Round 6.  Who knows, if not for trading that pick to Indy maybe Willekes would have been the player taken.

In any case, Joe D got a haul!

[Bungaman]

14 hours ago, johnnysd said:

I have more chance to have sex with Scarelett Johanssen and Charlize Theron at the same time than Enunwa playing another down for us.

Let's follow up after the first couple of games and see if you have any film of the event. OK?

[JohnnyLV]

39 minutes ago, Bungaman said:

Let's follow up after the first couple of games and see if you have any film of the event. OK?

So you would actually play Enunwa?