"Glass" Joe Douglas

[Sonny Werblin]

39 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I see nothing in his game that suggests a ceiling that high.  I have Dalton as his ceiling, not his floor.  We're far apart here.

And it's not accurate to suggest Dalton is his floor.  He's played far worse than Dalton thru 30 starts, even at Dalton's worst.  What we've seen THIS YEAR is his "floor", and its bad.  

It is very apparent that we see different players when we watch Darnold play. I have no idea if you are right, or if I am right. So, let's try it this way.

What did you see from Alex Smith the first 3 years of his career?

Smith was in 32 games with 30 starts and posted the following numbers:

11 wins;  19 Losses;  203 completions on 800 Attempts for 54.4%;  4,697 yards;  19 TDs;  31 Int

Sam Darnold has been in 30 games with all 30 as the starting QB and posted the following:

11 Wins;  19 Losses;  594 completions on 993 Attempts for 59.8%;  6,681 yards;  39 TDs;  32 Int 

What happened after Smith's third season? He missed season 4 with a shoulder injury. Then posted solid stats over 4 seasons in SF and then played for Andy Reid in KC. Over his 5 seasons as the starter in KC, Smith posted:

50 Wins;  26 Losses;  with completion percentage of 65.1% and averaged 231 yards per game. And, oh yeah, he never threw more than 8 interceptions in a season.

Why was Smith able to turn it around and Darnold, in your view, is not likely to? Especially since Darnolds' first 30 starts are better than Smith's.

The relevant questions are: 1) What made Alex Smith fail in his first 3 seasons? 2) Do those reasons exist for Darnold? 3) What made Alex Smith succeed after his first 3 seasons? 4) Can Darnold succeed if the same things are done for him?

[Icer]

14 minutes ago, kmnj said:

that is nonsense parcells did it in  a year

That was 25 years ago and practically a different sport, plus Parcells was also the coach. Show me an example where a perennial bottom feeder with the draft history similar to ours over the past decade turned it around after one offseason. You cant

[Pac]

Well if nothing else its nice to see tomsham and jetfat80 getting worked over in this thread for their awful takes.

[T0mShane]

2 hours ago, JiF said:

+ @HessStation and the list is growing, we'll be adding new members by the minute.  My PM's are blowing up.

Meanwhile, it's you and @Jetsfan80  who sh*t all over your stupid committee and made Hess King of JN, go figure. 

Oh and you know damn well what side your ex-boo sauce will chose @dbatesman 

 

I am JUICY FOR THIS BATTLE

[Jetsfan80]

6 minutes ago, Sonny Werblin said:

It is very apparent that we see different players when we watch Darnold play. I have no idea if you are right, or if I am right. So, let's try it this way.

What did you see from Alex Smith the first 3 years of his career?

Smith was in 32 games with 30 starts and posted the following numbers:

11 wins;  19 Losses;  203 completions on 800 Attempts for 54.4%;  4,697 yards;  19 TDs;  31 Int

Sam Darnold has been in 30 games with all 30 as the starting QB and posted the following:

11 Wins;  19 Losses;  594 completions on 993 Attempts for 59.8%;  6,681 yards;  39 TDs;  32 Int 

What happened after Smith's third season? He missed season 4 with a shoulder injury. Then posted solid stats over 4 seasons in SF and then played for Andy Reid in KC. Over his 5 seasons as the starter in KC, Smith posted:

50 Wins;  26 Losses;  with completion percentage of 65.1% and averaged 231 yards per game. And, oh yeah, he never threw more than 8 interceptions in a season.

Why was Smith able to turn it around and Darnold, in your view, is not likely to? Especially since Darnolds' first 30 starts are better than Smith's.

The relevant questions are: 1) What made Alex Smith fail in his first 3 seasons? 2) Do those reasons exist for Darnold? 3) What made Alex Smith succeed after his first 3 seasons? 4) Can Darnold succeed if the same things are done for him?

 

For every Alex Smith, there are dozens of Geno Smith's and Mark Sanchez's who suck for 2-3 years and then continue to suck forever.  Darnold is better than both those guys, but not by enough to make a big difference.

Your hope of Darnold having Roethlisberger upside depends on him bucking history and doing something only 2-3 QB's in the last 2 decades (at most, since none of them were anywhere close to Big Ben's level) have done.  And even then, you have to wait a long time for it to ever come to fruition, like it did for Smith and Ryan Tannehill.

My opinion, that Darnold mostly sucks and has Andy Dalton as his ceiling, is supported by his statistical performance thru 30 games, his serious flaws that have followed him since USC (I.E. "eye test"), and the historical performance of QB's like Darnold over the years.

Yeah, I like my chances.  Wish I was wrong.

[Icer]

Why is Alex Smith a barometer for success? A game manager journeyman QB who couldn't win you the big game, but at least he wouldn't lose it. Is that the QB you want to hitch your wagon to?

[Jetsfan80]

3 minutes ago, Icer said:

Why is Alex Smith a barometer for success? A game manager journeyman QB who couldn't win you the big game, but at least he wouldn't lose it. Is that the QB you want to hitch your wagon to?

Yep!  The same guy Andy Reid dumped at his first chance, despite Smith coming off a career year.  This after trading up for a risky Air Raid QB and anointing him "the guy" when he had barely seen the field yet.

If Alex Smith is the best we can do with Darnold, we'll live.  Alex Smith is a QB you're moderately happy with but will always be wanting more out of and can never reach the next level with.  He's QB purgatory.  

Sonny was saying Darnold has a Roethlisberger ceiling, which is of course absurd given the information we have on Darnold to date.  Nothing but hope and dreams to support that possibility.  If he truly had Roethlisberger upside, sure, he'd be worth keeping.  But it just isn't true.  

[Mogglez]

2 hours ago, SAR I said:

We've got the teamwork to make the dream work.  Let's go.  Let's go Jets.

SAR I

Gase is gone Scott. Find a new schtick.

[FidelioJet]

7 minutes ago, Icer said:

Why is Alex Smith a barometer for success? A game manager journeyman QB who couldn't win you the big game, but at least he wouldn't lose it. Is that the QB you want to hitch your wagon to?

Agreed.  If Alex Smiths' good years are the best we can expect from Sam then we should be moving on from Sam. 

[T0mShane]

4 minutes ago, Mogglez said:

Gase is gone Scott. Find a new schtick.

It’s gotta be soon, especially if Darnold is missing multiple games. Zero reason to keep the miasma around if they can’t even fall back on the “continuity for Darnold” rationale.

[BettyBoop]

4 hours ago, chrisfaceoff said:

let’s see what happens with staff, and players  the rest of the year is just a straight up audition for almost every coach and player on this team  

 

Yes, the rest of the year is an audition.  For that reason Perine should be the main running back over the last 12 games.  Gore and Bell are not part of the future.  Here's your money, thanks for playing.

When/if the rest of the rookies heal, they should be thrown in there.  Would love to see Clarke, Hall and Zuniga out there rather than Van Rotten, Desir and Jenkins. 

[Charlie Brown]

Don't think Glass Joe fits but I loved playing this game in the Grad Center years ago!!  

[Sonny Werblin]

29 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Yep!  The same guy Andy Reid dumped at his first chance, despite Smith coming off a career year.  This after trading up for a risky Air Raid QB and anointing him "the guy" when he had barely seen the field yet.

If Alex Smith is the best we can do with Darnold, we'll live.  Alex Smith is a QB you're moderately happy with but will always be wanting more out of and can never reach the next level with.  He's QB purgatory.  

Sonny was saying Darnold has a Roethlisberger ceiling, which is of course absurd given the information we have on Darnold to date.  Nothing but hope and dreams to support that possibility.  If he truly had Roethlisberger upside, sure, he'd be worth keeping.  But it just isn't true.  

In his first three years playing under HOF coach for the first 2 with a talented team with a real running game, this is what Roethlisberger's 40 regular season games looked like:

29 Wins;  11 Losses;  644 completions;  1032 Attempts;  62.4%;  8519 yards;  52 TDs;  43 Int

This is in 10 more regular season starts (33% more) than Darnold with the benefit of playoff experience on a SB quality team. The only real difference is completion percentage. Was Ben's percentage helped by having a great run game and throwing passes to Heinz Ward, Antwan Randall El; Plaxico Burress; Santonio Holmes and Heath Miller. You bet it was. You can not really evaluate Darnold until he plays with better talent. 

[#27TheDominator]

1 hour ago, batman10023 said:

But he didn't like to Archie right.

I think if we get the top pick - Sam is gone.  But anything else and i think it's up for debate.  Many can argue that if you trade pick 2 and get a haul you can pick your QB the following year.  and have a nice core.

According to the emojis that post made @T0mShane sad.  My work is done for the day.

[Bronx]

7 minutes ago, Sonny Werblin said:

You can not really evaluate Darnold until he plays with better talent

Here...

https://www.jetnation.com/2020/10/02/ny-jets-game-recap/

Sam Darnold again was the worst QB on the field, and that is a disturbing thought.  The six sacks that DEN generated were primarily on him as he was indecisive on when to vacate the pocket.  And the injury he experienced was a prime example of that.  When your offense generates five FG’s that means you’re not getting the job done in the red zone.  Darnold also showed a lack of awareness on who to feed the ball to.  Crowder & Smith were his “chunk play” guys he should’ve forced them to ball, enough of this spreading the ball around nonsense.

 

 

[slimjasi]

1 hour ago, UnknownJetFan said:

Plans are great, but then execution must be like 80% or higher of your draft picks and FAs have to be hit.

Depends a little on how good your hits are. 

Like, if you draft a HOF QB and HOF edge rusher, you can probably get away with a lot of misses. 

But yea, this team needs a lot of help

[Jetsfan80]

2 hours ago, Sonny Werblin said:

In his first three years playing under HOF coach for the first 2 with a talented team with a real running game, this is what Roethlisberger's 40 regular season games looked like:

29 Wins;  11 Losses;  644 completions;  1032 Attempts;  62.4%;  8519 yards;  52 TDs;  43 Int

This is in 10 more regular season starts (33% more) than Darnold with the benefit of playoff experience on a SB quality team. The only real difference is completion percentage. Was Ben's percentage helped by having a great run game and throwing passes to Heinz Ward, Antwan Randall El; Plaxico Burress; Santonio Holmes and Heath Miller. You bet it was. You can not really evaluate Darnold until he plays with better talent. 

 

It was a different game, even as recently as 2006.  And even then, they weren't comparable.  This was Ben's Yards per Attempt those first 3 seasons:

• 2004:  8.9
• 2005:  8.9
• 2006:  7.5

Ben was LAUNCHING the ball his first 3 years in the league, and was still throwing at a 64 % clip.  His deep ball accuracy was off the charts.

Meanwhile, here's Darnold's YPA his first 2 seasons + the first 4 games this year:

• 2018:  6.9
• 2019:  6.9
• 2020:  5.7

Not even in the same universe.  His deep ball accuracy has been an issue, even dating back to his days at USC.  

There's not going to be an opportunity for Darnold to play with "comparable talent" as Ben did.  Life isn't fair like that. 

Darnold has to play with the cards we're dealt, just as the Jets have to.  You don't hold onto Darnold until some hypothetical day when he'll have enough help to make him look average. 

At USC, he was handed great circumstances and yet was still a very flawed prospect with very mixed reviews.  Imagine that?  A QB can still be deemed to have serious red flags even with a solid OL, WR's, RB's and coaching!

Darnold is simply a bad QB who also has bad circumstances.  It's as simple as that.  And you're talking about his ceiling being a HOF QB.  It's lunacy dude.

[Fantasy Island]

7 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

The misdirected anger is getting old, fast.  

Johnsons, with a side of:  

 

Douglas is the only hope for this woebegone franchise.  We're not attracting a better caliber GM than him as long as the Johnson's own the franchise.  It's sink or swim with JD whether folks like it or not.

If he isn't banging the table to get rid of Gase, he is part of the problem.

[NYJ1]

3 hours ago, TJ said:

Yup, I expected JD to fix this freakin disaster with his first draft.  ?

Well, the truth is he didn't fix any of it.

[Bronx]

3 minutes ago, Fantasy Island said:

If he isn't banging the table to get rid of Gase, he is part of the problem.

JD owes him a big favor, obviously.

[Bronx]

Another gem.

[Fantasy Island]

5 hours ago, batman10023 said:

Robbie didn't want to play here

Nobody does

[Fantasy Island]

28 minutes ago, Bronx said:

JD owes him a big favor, obviously.

How about a kick to the balls, that would be doing him a favor.

[CTM]

5 minutes ago, JiF said:

+ @HessStation and the list is growing, we'll be adding new members by the minute.  My PM's are blowing up.

Meanwhile, it's you and @Jetsfan80  who sh*t all over your stupid committee and made Hess King of JN, go figure. 

Oh and you know damn well what side your ex-boo sauce will chose @dbatesman 

 

Shane, 80 and Blatesman: the unholy trinity of JN

 

[CTM]

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

It was a different game, even as recently as 2006.  And even then, they weren't comparable.  This was Ben's Yards per Attempt those first 3 seasons:

• 2004:  8.9
• 2005:  8.9
• 2006:  7.5

Ben was LAUNCHING the ball his first 3 years in the league, and was still throwing at a 64 % clip.  His deep ball accuracy was off the charts.

Meanwhile, here's Darnold's YPA his first 2 seasons + the first 4 games this year:

• 2018:  6.9
• 2019:  6.9
• 2020:  5.7

Damn that's dreadful. YPA is a much more important stat than looking at yards per game or completion % individually

[Jetsfan80]

5 minutes ago, CTM said:

Damn that's dreadful. YPA is a much more important stat than looking at yards per game or completion % individually

Yep.  Helps separate out the dink-n-dunk guys and/or the inaccurate QB's when juxtaposed to other numbers the QB puts up.

Chad Pennington's career YPA was a very pedestrian 7.2, by the way.  

[jgb]

4 hours ago, Sonny Werblin said:

It is very apparent that we see different players when we watch Darnold play. I have no idea if you are right, or if I am right. So, let's try it this way.

What did you see from Alex Smith the first 3 years of his career?

Smith was in 32 games with 30 starts and posted the following numbers:

11 wins;  19 Losses;  203 completions on 800 Attempts for 54.4%;  4,697 yards;  19 TDs;  31 Int

Sam Darnold has been in 30 games with all 30 as the starting QB and posted the following:

11 Wins;  19 Losses;  594 completions on 993 Attempts for 59.8%;  6,681 yards;  39 TDs;  32 Int 

What happened after Smith's third season? He missed season 4 with a shoulder injury. Then posted solid stats over 4 seasons in SF and then played for Andy Reid in KC. Over his 5 seasons as the starter in KC, Smith posted:

50 Wins;  26 Losses;  with completion percentage of 65.1% and averaged 231 yards per game. And, oh yeah, he never threw more than 8 interceptions in a season.

Why was Smith able to turn it around and Darnold, in your view, is not likely to? Especially since Darnolds' first 30 starts are better than Smith's.

The relevant questions are: 1) What made Alex Smith fail in his first 3 seasons? 2) Do those reasons exist for Darnold? 3) What made Alex Smith succeed after his first 3 seasons? 4) Can Darnold succeed if the same things are done for him?

Because Smith was an extraordinary outlier. Betting on Darnold now would be like cashing out your 401k to buy lotto tickets because you saw in the paper that someone outside of Harrisburg won $200M.

[TJ]

15 hours ago, NYJ1 said:

Well, the truth is he didn't fix any of it.

You’re right, let’s fire JD tonight and rehire the coffee king, we need more top ten picks spent on D-linemen.

[CanadaSteve]

22 hours ago, slimjasi said:

 Idzik's plan was also sound.

[slimjasi]

10 minutes ago, CanadaSteve said:

Idzik's plan was fine. 

His issue was that he couldn't draft. 

If he had hit on most of his draft picks in 2014 instead of failing on virtually all of them, he could still be here. 

[JustInFudge]

21 hours ago, T0mShane said:

I am JUICY FOR THIS BATTLE

[JustInFudge]

17 hours ago, CTM said:

Shane, 80 and Blatesman: the unholy trinity of JN

 

lol but come'on.  Dbutts is sooo salty, he'd totally be on our side of this battle.

 

[T0mShane]

7 minutes ago, JiF said:

[Jet Nut]

On 10/5/2020 at 11:00 AM, DJF71 said:

Well so far his draft is a LT and a punter.  Thats not good enough. 

Because this is relevant given the injuries to Mims etc 

[Bronx]

Whoever gave a thumbs down to this thread needs to eat camel chit.