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Samtorobby47

Creative cap management for 2021?

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When you read this article you can help but think of what Joe Douglas did this past offseason, setting us up nicely for 2021. 

There’s always going to be the normal flow of free agents, though in 2021 there will be a smaller number of bidders. And there will be some players you wouldn’t expect to be available, but cap issues might force teams to cut some good players. There’s only going to be a limited number of bidders. So if they play it smart, those teams can really take advantage of the marketplace.

So how should teams be preparing for this? I would have started last year, maximizing what I could push forward, without wrecking this year’s team.
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Not only do we have cap room, we have 2022 trade bait to compensate teams about to cut players they can’t afford. 

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Aren’t the Jets like 80 gagillion under the cap with the ability to carry over?  If so this shouldn’t be a problem for them.

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I was one who was pushing for Logan Ryan and Jadeveon Clowney
last summer, good thing Douglas held firm.  Even though we'll
be coming off a horrible year the fact that we'll have significant
cap space will make us attractive to free agent looking to get paid

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honestly, i don't see the cap changing much.  if anything it might just not go up - i don't see it going down.  correct me if i'm wrong but the NBA cap went UP, the NHL stayed the same - i don't see the NFL, which has had a pretty good season, lowering the cap.

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The Jets a re reportedly well under the cap for 2021.

Even with a lower cap, we should be in a good spot.

The real question is if the team will actually spend their cap.  We've not spent to the cap in quite some time I believe.

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1 hour ago, heymangold said:

honestly, i don't see the cap changing much.  if anything it might just not go up - i don't see it going down.  correct me if i'm wrong but the NBA cap went UP, the NHL stayed the same - i don't see the NFL, which has had a pretty good season, lowering the cap.

Nope for the NBA and kind of, but not really, for the NHL.  See below.

And the NHL especially is in serious trouble.  The players are going to have give up serious concessions, or else there's talk that the start of next season will get pushed all the way back to October.

 

https://www.jhunewsletter.com/article/2020/11/how-the-deflated-nba-salary-cap-will-impact-the-2020-21-nba-season

However, this year may look quite different from previous free agencies. Considering the unique circumstances of last season being during a global pandemic, the NBA saw a 10% decrease in revenue for the 2019-2020 NBA season. While this is a serious drop, it pales in comparison to what may happen next season if it were to begin without fans in attendance.

The NBA and the National Basketball Players Association have been in serious talks about when the 2020-2021 season should begin and what the appropriate salary cap and luxury tax levels are. If an agreement cannot be made, the salary cap could fall drastically from $109 million last season to $90 million for next season.

 

https://triblive.com/sports/mark-madden-forget-january-the-nhl-shouldnt-return-until-october/

The NHL and NHL Players Association agreed to a four-year extension of their Collective Bargaining Agreement last July in advance of returning to play. The upcoming season called for the players to defer 10% of their salary and for a 20% escrow.

But now the owners want additional salary deferral and escrow: One report says a total of 26% for the former, 25% for the latter. Players’ salaries also would be pro-rated depending on the length of the season.

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13 minutes ago, Drums said:

Jets over here like

Anticipation Popcorn GIF

Legitimately, I was on Over The Cap and found it hard to get the team within $20 Million under the cap. 

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39 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Nope for the NBA and kind of, but not really, for the NHL.  See below.

And the NHL especially is in serious trouble.  The players are going to have give up serious concessions, or else there's talk that the start of next season will get pushed all the way back to October

NBA: https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2020/11/10/sports-nba-salary-cap/

this says the cap is identical to last year. 
 

NHL: https://nhl.nbcsports.com/2020/07/10/nhl-salary-cap-to-stay-flat-at-81-5m-bad-news-for-big-spenders-free-agents/

this also says it stayed flat.

maybe I’m not understanding but I just don’t know that the nfl cap would go too drastically down, if it goes down at all.

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3 hours ago, bla bla bla said:

I'll keep saying this, I expect Douglas to look at some of these good players on bad contracts and offer up late round picks to take on the contract rather than bidding for the player on the open market.

It'd be nice if he could nab someone competent in a Brock Osweiler type trade.

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7 minutes ago, derp said:

It'd be nice if he could nab someone competent in a Brock Osweiler type trade.

I think it’s important to target vets that are good locker room guys when looking for these bad contract dumps. Yes you overpay their salary but the draft compensation offsets it and you get a veteran leader to help all the young guys out.
 

The Jets need draft picks and leadership, not cap space. The Jets are the perfect destination for everyone to take their dumps considering they are legitimately a toilet. 

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It's nice to have cap room and nice to have a GM who has created cap space but we have had that before with both idzik and yes even mac.  FA and really high priced ones are most often fools gold. 

Trading for existing contracts from cash strapped teams is a good ability to have though for sure.

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Good to know especially considering we can free up more cap space by cutting Alex Lewis, Fant, Anderson and possibly Crowder to free up $32 million more. As we're at $82 million to Jacksonville's $85 million.

But hopefully we're not soo much into Free Agency in the future years as we need some stability which can therefore lead to us developing chemistry. 

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35 minutes ago, heymangold said:

NBA: https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2020/11/10/sports-nba-salary-cap/

this says the cap is identical to last year. 
 

NHL: https://nhl.nbcsports.com/2020/07/10/nhl-salary-cap-to-stay-flat-at-81-5m-bad-news-for-big-spenders-free-agents/

this also says it stayed flat.

maybe I’m not understanding but I just don’t know that the nfl cap would go too drastically down, if it goes down at all.

 

Because you're talking about the current cap, not the 2021 cap.  What we're talking about is the 2021 cap for NBA, NHL and NFL.  All 3 leagues are going to see decreases because of lost revenue from 2020. 

In the NHL's case that may be reflected more in pay deferment to future years, but it doesn't go against the point being made.

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Both the owners and players have assumed that annual revenue increases are the natural order of things.  That is not the case.

The NHL players--admittedly a far less wealthy sport--are learning that a deal is not a deal as the owners ask for further concessions.  There the issue is money.  As a league, the owners and players are relatively cohesive in terms of social outlook.

But the NFL has much broader divisions.  While money will be the most important issue, there is a fundamental difference in how the PA and the owners view their product.  Many of the "new" procedures involving player safety and referee oversight have slowed the game.  The unintended consequence is that games are delayed and lengthened.  I haven't seen a significant reduction is tv viewership, but the league is getting closer to losing fans.

All this says there may be some difficult negotiations this off season with the cap under further pressure.  How and if this will play out is unknown.  But I think this will be a significant off season.

Owners may be more willing than usual to let players walk as a way to reassert control over "their" game and to make the point that the NFL is a business.  GM's may find their hands tied with regard to their negotiations negating some of the cap tricks typically used to minimize current cap impact.

So the Jets may find their negotiating position even stronger in acquiring players this off season

 

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12 hours ago, Samtorobby47 said:

When you read this article you can help but think of what Joe Douglas did this past offseason, setting us up nicely for 2021. 

There’s always going to be the normal flow of free agents, though in 2021 there will be a smaller number of bidders. And there will be some players you wouldn’t expect to be available, but cap issues might force teams to cut some good players. There’s only going to be a limited number of bidders. So if they play it smart, those teams can really take advantage of the marketplace.

So how should teams be preparing for this? I would have started last year, maximizing what I could push forward, without wrecking this year’s team.

We usually waste effort being mediocre, but it looks like JD had to make us go the hit rock bottom route, which then makes it after that have a good chance to build back up quicker. It is likely to net us 0 or 1 win this year, but holding back 25 or so Million and signing no major FAs, plus making trades like JA for huge future assets were what caused this accelerated drop(but was mainly brought on by 10 years of really bad drafting and FA signings as we all know).

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1 hour ago, LAD_Brooklyn said:

Good to know especially considering we can free up more cap space by cutting Alex Lewis, Fant, Anderson and possibly Crowder to free up $32 million more. As we're at $82 million to Jacksonville's $85 million.

But hopefully we're not soo much into Free Agency in the future years as we need some stability which can therefore lead to us developing chemistry. 

I'd be against cutting Crowder. $11.5 million for a guy (when healthy) who can give you 70+ catches seems reasonable.

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10 minutes ago, CTJetsFan said:

I'd be against cutting Crowder. $11.5 million for a guy (when healthy) can give you 70+ catches seems reasonable.

I'll rather release or extend him. Not in favor of carrying him on a expiring. Think we should be thinking more long term with our cap advantage.

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27 minutes ago, CTJetsFan said:

I'd be against cutting Crowder. $11.5 million for a guy (when healthy) can give you 70+ catches seems reasonable.

Agreed. He is a good WR. Doesn’t make sense to cut him when we have the dough. Extend him 2 yrs and call it a day. Don’t create more holes when you don’t need to. 

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5 minutes ago, Drums said:

Agreed. He is a good WR. Doesn’t make sense to cut him when we have the dough. Extend him 2 yrs and call it a day. 

Crowder is signed for 2021.  Why are we extending him?  Is it because you want him past 2021, or because you want to spread out his cap hit?  We have the money, so I'm not sure we need the latter.

EDIT to clarify, I think they keep him on the hook and then cut/extend him as necessary when they use the cap space up picking from this new FA crop.  

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1 hour ago, Beerfish said:

It's nice to have cap room and nice to have a GM who has created cap space but we have had that before with both idzik and yes even mac.  FA and really high priced ones are most often fools gold. 

Trading for existing contracts from cash strapped teams is a good ability to have though for sure.

Marshon Lattimore would be my #1 choice! That guy could cover any of the #1s in the AFC East! We need the triangle on defense: 

Lattimore- QW- Bud Dupree or whoever JD can can in here as a edge rusher. 
 

The Patriots transformed their defense when they signed Gilmore. 

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40 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

Crowder is signed for 2021.  Why are we extending him?  Is it because you want him past 2021, or because you want to spread out his cap hit?  We have the money, so I'm not sure we need the latter.

EDIT to clarify, I think they keep him on the hook and then cut/extend him as necessary when they use the cap space up picking from this new FA crop.  

You always make good points. Mainly I am against the cut Crowder for 2021 talks because it just doesn't make sense to me. Also, I want him past 2021. I wouldn't be against extending him during the season next year but I like him as a player and he seems like someone you'd want to keep around for a few more years. Maybe something that we can get out of after 2 years (2023 season) would be good. 

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Just now, Drums said:

You always make good points. I want him past 2021. I wouldn't be against extending him during the season next year but I like him as a player and he seems like someone you'd want to keep around for a few more years. Maybe something that we can get out of after 2 years (2023 season) would be good. 

I like him too, but I am not that worried about keeping him because he seems less position flexible than others.  He seems slot only, though I have not seen any actual data about where these guys are taking snaps from the back that up. 

PS: I agree with your post. I didn't upvote it just because you said nice things about me.

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41 minutes ago, Jetster said:

Marshon Lattimore would be my #1 choice! That guy could cover any of the #1s in the AFC East! We need the triangle on defense: 

Lattimore- QW- Bud Dupree or whoever JD can can in here as a edge rusher. 
 

The Patriots transformed their defense when they signed Gilmore. 

The other guy on the Saints I like a lot is Ramczyk.  Plug him in at RT and our line gets substantially better, allowing us to focus exclusively on IOL in the draft.  

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3 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

I like him too, but I am not that worried about keeping him because he seems less position flexible than others.  He seems slot only, though I have not seen any actual data about where these guys are taking snaps from the back that up. 

PS: I agree with your post. I didn't upvote it just because you said nice things about me.

Haha, I know. 

I agree he isn't position flexible as others so my question is, does that make signing a guy like Juju less relevant? I am more for signing Robinson but there was an interesting stat I heard a few weeks ago during the Chargers game that said Juju and the Chargers WR (I want to say Allen but I forget his name at the moment) lead the league in 3rd down catches. That made me raise my eyebrows and think more about Juju but isn't he a slot WR? This is where having an actual offensive mind designing plays would come in handy. 

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4 hours ago, heymangold said:

honestly, i don't see the cap changing much.  if anything it might just not go up - i don't see it going down.  correct me if i'm wrong but the NBA cap went UP, the NHL stayed the same - i don't see the NFL, which has had a pretty good season, lowering the cap.

NFL has had virtually no one in the stands all year, and poor ratings. 

Revenue is down, the Cap is a % of revenue.   Therefor, the cap is going down.

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We’re definitely is a great spot. This is a great year to have cap space. There’s going to be very little bidding wars.

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21 minutes ago, chirorob said:

NFL has had virtually no one in the stands all year, and poor ratings. 

Revenue is down, the Cap is a % of revenue.   Therefor, the cap is going down.

NFL can definitely make that happen but it does have near-catastrophic consequences for many teams.  I could see a scenario where they negotiate a flat or only slightly lower cap in 2021 in exchange for an agreement to keep it at that level for the next few years even as revenue returns to pre-Covid rates until they earn back the losses.  Basically they would be fronting a loan to the NFLPA now and taking it back when revenue was restored.  NFLPA will howl about it but in the end, they probably have no real choice.

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1 minute ago, Drums said:

Haha, I know. 

I agree he isn't position flexible as others so my question is, does that make signing a guy like Juju less relevant? I am more for signing Robinson but there was an interesting stat I heard a few weeks ago during the Chargers game that said Juju and the Chargers WR (I want to say Allen but I forget his name at the moment) lead the league in 3rd down catches. That made me raise my eyebrows and think more about Juju but isn't he a slot WR? This is where having an actual offensive mind designing plays would come in handy. 

JuJu scares me because the Steelers seem to know when to let guys walk.  It is probably much easier to succeed with Claypool and Dionte Johnson pulling coverage.  Of course Smith-Schuster factors in to help them, but I have not been super impressed with the way guys have performed upon leaving Pittsburgh.  I'd probably target Robinson and Godwin.  Maybe Corey Davis or Fuller.  I have a feeling we are going to make a bunch of cheap short-term deals like Alshon Jeffery. 

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From the article: 

 

When I was in Philadelphia, we did a lot of research, brought in some sophisticated Ph.D guys to do a deep study to find a correlation between cap management and success. The only correlation we ever came up with is that dead money adversely – and dramatically -- affects your chances of making the playoffs. And it doesn’t take a Ph.D to figure that out, because it means you’ve got less available cap room than other teams, and that’s clearly a competitive disadvantage.

 
I think its now obvious that Joe D spent this year cleaning up the books. I don't think he intended to tank, but I think he looked around at the roster and said this is not a contending team, lets take our lumps this year and go into next season with a clean set of books. Mac was so unbelievably bad at his job that its a multiple year process to purge his mistakes. We had to take a hit on Quincy, Trumaine, Lev, etc. I don't think he anticipated being 0-16, but it would explain all of the 1 year deals for minimal dollars. 

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