Best GM in League breaks down drafting a QB high.

[pdxgreen]

I can't fault his logic.  If your a GM and you pick a QB (high in the draft) it has to be one your prepared to live with.  Rest your legacy on that quarterback.  Although sometimes I am sure GM's draft a QB knowing that there's the very high likelihood they wont be there to see the player mature.  (Except of Macc of course.)

[Jet Life]

6 minutes ago, JiF said:

He had the #3 overall.

 

They weren’t in the market for a QB at that time. They had Andrew Luck who blind sided them with a retirement the following offseason.

[jeremy2020]

2 hours ago, sec101row23 said:

Ballard is right, that’s why if you don’t absolutely love the QB, you don’t take him at 2.  Once you draft the QB high, you are tied to that kid.   

Yea, just like when Mac avoided this by drafting hackenberg in the 2nd round. Genius mac outsmarted everybody there. 

[dcJet]

If Luck had retired a year earlier, he keeps that pick and gets a QB. 

 

 

[BroadwayRay]

3 hours ago, Shockwave said:

Chris Ballard to me is the best in the business. I have never heard a GM be this upfront on not wanting to draft a QB high. 

We have a stud GM. Looks like we are going to have a stud coaching staff. Theres no way we are drafting Fields now - He just doesn't fit a SF system. So Wilson is the only option there. Do these guys really all want to put their jobs on the line for small QB with a large injury history that faced such poor competition. Especially with Wilson only being successful for one year? I just can't see it. 

I would absolutely be happy with building this team the way the Colts did. Instead of drafting Sam or any QB high they built their team the right way. They now have perhaps the best roster in the league. 

Trade down all day. 

 

Ballard was talking about taking a QB in the first round for the sake of taking of a QB. He said nothing about his thinking when it comes to taking a QB "high" in the first round, as the OP headline implies. Ballard has never been in a position to take a QB high in the first round since Luck retired.

[dcJet]

https://www.stampedeblue.com/2020/12/18/22173511/who-should-be-the-colts-qb-in-2021

 

Interesting read from Colts perspective on how to fix their QB Problem and how this author views Sam and other options.

Its from Dec 10th, so it still has us drafting #1.  Oh man, miss those the good old days!

 

Sam Darnold

Sam Darnold has had it tough in New York. Coaching has screwed him over in his career and he hasn’t been given a strong supporting cast either; he’s essentially had to swim in an ocean without any supplies, equipment or help. The question that needs to be asked about Darnold is whether or not his ceiling is worth investing in. While Darnold has a lot of wow throws, he has just as many, if not more, ugly throws that result in turnovers. He is a very hot and cold player and if you were to trade for him, you’re investing in his highs.

The Colts have a strong support system with good coaching and a strong offensive line, plus good upstarts at receiver (plus potential draft picks or top free agents); they are set up well to improve the performance of a quarterback. Darnold will come for cheap because the Jets will try and move him when they select Trevor Lawrence first overall in the draft, making Darnold completely expendable.

 

Expected Trade Value: 4th Round Pick

 

[BornJetsFan1983]

4 hours ago, Shockwave said:

Ballard has been the GM there the last 3-4 years and builded that team as you mentioned. He did not draft Luck. 

Ballard trades down quite often and has totally rebuilt that team in the last 3 years. They are loaded with young cheap talent

yeah then that dude is doing it right because they really turned it around over there. they draft a qb they are going to be really well off. Seems to me that most teams should build this way.

[addage]

7 hours ago, Larz said:

lol

Manning #1

luck #1

Exactly. And Luck never was more than a “good” nfl qb who retired early. Didn’t justify his draft position. 

[jgb]

So he's saying if you pick a QB high you need to be right. What a revelation.

What's funny is how people think this in some way validates Sam's continued existence on this team.

[peekskill68]

You could make the case the Jets were set for a deep playoff run in 2008 before Favre's arm fell off.  We're watching the Bucs this weekend with a 50 year old Brady.  There are fixes that can be made to lead a team to a Super Bowl vs. drafting a new QB and resetting the clock.  I'd be inclined to keep fixing the roster vs. over focusing on Sam vs. Wilson or Fields

[addage]

48 minutes ago, jgb said:

So he's saying if you pick a QB high you need to be right. What a revelation.

What's funny is how people think this in some way validates Sam's continued existence on this team.

I don't think he saying you have to be right.

I think he's saying the odds of being wrong are very high.  So you need to be absolutely sure (which you can't) or take a player whose odds of being a top tier pro are higher.  Sewell/Smith vs Fields, etc

Draft QBs as an on-going process and hope you get lucky.  Need to steadily accumulate extra picks so that you can throw out a few on QB's.

Issue of drafting Morgan wasn't the decision to attempt it, but doing so when there were so many other unfilled needs.

Get the roster right, then play let's find a QB.

[Jetscode1]

8 hours ago, ChuckkieB said:

Folks, Darnold is NOT a good QB and will never be a good QB.  I've said it before and I'll say it again, QB's come into this league and are either good immediately or they are not good immediately.  Good young QB's can be coached up to be BETTER.  Very good young QB's can be coached up to be GREAT.  Almost NEVER, however, do we see a QB that comes into the league that is considered BAD somehow transform himself after 3 years to all of a sudden become GOOD.  It just does not happen.    Darnold is a bad QB after 3 years.  That ship has sailed.  

Agree with this.  At this point, I'm just trusting in Douglas.  Hope he can draft better.

[Joe Willie White Shoes]

Let's put QB in context.  Franchise QBs are overwhelmingly drafted in the first round - and early in the first round.  Finding a franchise QB after round 1 is rare.

Of 32 starting QBs in the NFL, 23 were first round picks and the 24th will be picked by Jacksonville in April.

 

That's 3/4 of the NFL

 

Of those 24 first round QBs - all but 3 were picked early in the first round - Rodgers (who we all know should have been picked earlier as we watched him wait that year), Jackson (who went late because the NFL was not sold on his style),  and Bridgewater ( who is a hold the fort guy until a better option is available).  

Four are 2nd round picks - Carr, Lock, Brees, and Garappolo -  Brees is the only true franchise QB of this group, and he is old as dirt and in his last season.  Winston (another first round pick) may be the Saints QB next season.  Lock may be replaced in this year's draft by another first round pick.

Wilson is the only 3rd round pick 

Two are 4th round picks - Prescott and Cousins 

Brady was a 6th round pick.  We know Brady's history and how he is an extreme once in a lifetime outlier. 

If a GM wants a franchise QB, he essentially has to take one early in the first round or play long odds on hitting the lottery with a later pick.  

 

[Sperm Edwards]

11 hours ago, ChuckkieB said:

I said almost never btw, and each of these 3 QB's made significant leaps in their second full year in the league, and even if you disagree with that assessment, that's just a handful of QB's in probably the last 15-20 years or so. I'll stick with my position.    

None of this changes the fact that there is 3 years of bad NFL game film on Darnold floating around in the ether,  and it's going to take too much time and work to "fix" for it to be worth it for the Jets imo.

Last 20 yrs or so would also include Alex Smith, Matt Hasselbeck, Warner, Delhomme, Schaub, hell I’d even throw Fitz’s name in there ... I don’t want to keep going back & back but there was also the likes of Dilfer who went from worse than Geno Smith to a legit starter. Collins looked like he was on his way out of the league after his 3rd season, and year 5 he was in the SB.

I’d say it’s less common more than it’s rare (“almost never”). But I’d agree that undoubtedly most who start out this poorly don’t turn it around. Usually they stay Joey Harrington. 

I can hope like anyone else, but yeah I’d have to agree that the combination of his hesitance leading to throwing late or sometimes not throwing it at all; his blindness to coverages right in front of his face; his suspect accuracy; his poor feel for pressure (and when there isn’t any); the lack of reliably being on the field for 16 games; and the way he just doesn’t look like he’s got much fire in his belly... that hope aside, it would be an understatement to say it’s an uphill battle to expect it to be turned around in 1 year.

[slimjasi]

Honest question - who gives a f*ck what Ballard thinks? Isn’t he picking in the 20s? 

What would he do if he had #2? 

[Shockwave]

4 hours ago, Joe Willie White Shoes said:

Let's put QB in context.  Franchise QBs are overwhelmingly drafted in the first round - and early in the first round.  Finding a franchise QB after round 1 is rare.

Of 32 starting QBs in the NFL, 23 were first round picks and the 24th will be picked by Jacksonville in April.

 

That's 3/4 of the NFL

 

Of those 24 first round QBs - all but 3 were picked early in the first round - Rodgers (who we all know should have been picked earlier as we watched him wait that year), Jackson (who went late because the NFL was not sold on his style),  and Bridgewater ( who is a hold the fort guy until a better option is available).  

Four are 2nd round picks - Carr, Lock, Brees, and Garappolo -  Brees is the only true franchise QB of this group, and he is old as dirt and in his last season.  Winston (another first round pick) may be the Saints QB next season.  Lock may be replaced in this year's draft by another first round pick.

Wilson is the only 3rd round pick 

Two are 4th round picks - Prescott and Cousins 

Brady was a 6th round pick.  We know Brady's history and how he is an extreme once in a lifetime outlier. 

If a GM wants a franchise QB, he essentially has to take one early in the first round or play long odds on hitting the lottery with a later pick.  

 

Enjoyed the time you put into listing stats. However its Super Misleading

You're saying you must draft a QB high by stating 24 of the NFL QB's were drafted with high first round picks. Not the case. 

Firstly Trevor is currently not in the NFL and Wentz was Benched. Jalen Hurts was the starter there. So right there it's 22. 

Your stating you must draft a QB. Of the 22 First round QB's - Bridgewater, Rivers, Newton, Alex Smith and Tannehill are no longer with the team that drafted them. So were down to 17. 

You state it must be a "High" First round pick - Of the 18 remaining QB's: Lamar Jackson and Aaron Rodgers were drafted after 20. So we're down to 15. Thats less than half of the NFL which obv negates your statement. 

Now how about we talk about the important part - How often these guys bust. 

Quote

Of the 31 quarterbacks drafted in the first round over the past 10 years, only 14 have made at least one Pro Bowl appearance. Only five of those — Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, Jared Goff, Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson — have multiple Pro Bowls.

Here are the 15 QB's that were drafted in the top 20 and are still with their original team. 

Kyler Murray

Matt Ryan - Avail for trade

Josh Allen - Stud

Tribisky - FA. Backup somewhere?

Burrow 

Baker 

Stafford - Avail for trade? 

Deshaun - Traded soon? Stud

Mahomes- Stud

Herbert - Stud

Goff -Sucks?

Tua - Sucks but its early. 

Daniel Jones - Sucks?

Sam Darnold - Traded? benched?

Big Ben. - Retiring? But was a stud. 

 

If your a GM and your looking at this list how pumped would you be to go and draft a QB at 2? Of the 15 QB's drafted in the "High" first round how many would you say are studs? How many would you have been Happy to draft? Like 8 or 9? Out of 32 NFL jobs.

That is why as Ballard said the second he drafts a QB it is the quickest way to get fired. 

If your the Jets unless its a no brainer you go and build up Darnold. Or perhaps you trade for a Vet like Stafford etc or get a Hold the fort guy like Garrappolo. Then you Trade down and build this team up. You go and take Wilson and this kid re-tears his Labrum or bust which is a very high percentage historically and everyones getting fired and redoing another rebuild 3 years from now. 

 

 

[dudeman]

 thats not forget the track records of players improving after gase dissapperars  ( see tannehill ) out of their life is pretty high. i see big improvements in this offense  and defense just by getting rid of the last regime.

[slats]

20 hours ago, Lith said:

Agreed.  If you don't like the options at 2, then don't take a QB just because there is a need.  Reaching for a QB is what gets you Trubisky, Bortles or Gabbert in the top 10.

On the other hand,  If we love one of these QBs, then take him at 2,  Don't pass to build the roster first, don't trade back and hope you can still get your QB.  If you love a guy and he is there, just take him.

This is what I've been saying since the Jets locked into the #2 pick. The decision comes down to their evaluation of their top QB prospect vs. the best offer they get for the pick. If they love a QB, they should take him. If they don't, they shouldn't force the pick. And I don't think they will. 

I think these leaks/rumors/opinions that Darnold will be back in 2021 should be taken seriously. It's the pragmatic move. That doesn't mean riding with Darnold and Morgan and hoping for the best, though. They can bring in a vet like Winston, or take a QB between the first and second round the way Philly did with Hurts. Even if Darnold remains with the team, I'd expect another QB in the room who's either had success as a starter in the league or is a promising prospect. 

Trading down just 7 or 8 spots should net them an extra second this year and a third first in 2022. Trading down further could give them extra firsts in the next two drafts. That's a lot of ammunition for building a team - or acquiring a QB if they fall for one. I suspect that JD would really like to trade down. 

[jetsons]

I say find the Best trade down offer available & take it... build the team around the QB position & you'll have Lasting Success. 

[jetsons]

10 hours ago, slimjasi said:

Honest question - who gives a f*ck what Ballard thinks? Isn’t he picking in the 20s? 

What would he do if he had #2? 

Draft a Guard ? (drafted 6th Overall but who drafts a "Guard" 6th Overall?)

Quenton Nelson (colts.com)

[Jet2020]

On 1/15/2021 at 7:03 AM, Shockwave said:

.....We have a stud GM. Looks like we are going to have a stud coaching staff. Theres no way we are drafting Fields now - He just doesn't fit a SF system...Do these guys really all want to put their jobs on the line for small QB with a large injury history.

Wait, what? What am I missing? Our GM has drafted guys that have worked more with the medical staff than the coaching staff...

Lets wait until he has a solid FA with FAs outperforming their contracts along with a solid draft with a couple of all-pros to anoint him a stud. As for the coaching staff, premature ejaculation? I’m excited too, but it’s still foreplay. 

To me, it seems JD would have ZERO issues with Fields injury history. This is the year when JD doesn’t get the “rebuild year/teardown”pass. 

[bitonti]

Quick let's Google Chris Ballard so we can attack the source 

I mean it's only "checks notes* Kiper, McShay, Schefter and now Chris Ballard who said this. What do they know?

Not like the source of the qb at 2 mocks, every internet neckbeard eating cheese in his mama's basement. 

[RedBeardedSavage]

5 minutes ago, bitonti said:

every internet neckbeard eating cheese in his mama's basement. 

Haha

[bitonti]

16 minutes ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

Haha

Their bathroom is a mountain dew bottle 

[slimjasi]

1 hour ago, jetsons said:

Draft a Guard ? (drafted 6th Overall but who drafts a "Guard" 6th Overall?)

Quenton Nelson (colts.com)

K 

[derp]

16 hours ago, Joe Willie White Shoes said:

Let's put QB in context.  Franchise QBs are overwhelmingly drafted in the first round - and early in the first round.  Finding a franchise QB after round 1 is rare.

Of 32 starting QBs in the NFL, 23 were first round picks and the 24th will be picked by Jacksonville in April.

 

That's 3/4 of the NFL

 

Of those 24 first round QBs - all but 3 were picked early in the first round - Rodgers (who we all know should have been picked earlier as we watched him wait that year), Jackson (who went late because the NFL was not sold on his style),  and Bridgewater ( who is a hold the fort guy until a better option is available).  

Four are 2nd round picks - Carr, Lock, Brees, and Garappolo -  Brees is the only true franchise QB of this group, and he is old as dirt and in his last season.  Winston (another first round pick) may be the Saints QB next season.  Lock may be replaced in this year's draft by another first round pick.

Wilson is the only 3rd round pick 

Two are 4th round picks - Prescott and Cousins 

Brady was a 6th round pick.  We know Brady's history and how he is an extreme once in a lifetime outlier. 

If a GM wants a franchise QB, he essentially has to take one early in the first round or play long odds on hitting the lottery with a later pick.  

 

Except we’re talking about drafting a quarterback at 2 overall, not just in the first round.

Your definition of early in the first round is pretty arbitrary. Many of the best QB’s in the NFL were passed on and went mid-late first - Mahomes, Watson, Roethlisberger - you mentioned Rodgers. Even guys like Herbert and Allen - best guys in their classes so far but third QB’s drafted in those classes, both outside the top five. 

Starters is funny too - you’re including early picks like Trubisky who got his fourth year option declined and Darnold who may be the same. Alex Smith on one leg and his third team, guys like Burrow, Tua, and Mayfield who are too early in their career to know if they’re good but those teams are short term committed to them - and those are all high draft picks. Daniel Jones is right behind them too and also a big long term question mark.

Also includes Tannehill being successful on his second team - he didn’t work out for Miami and also wasn't an early first.

I think you’re including Wentz as a starter who’s on thin ice too and honestly lost that job. And I don’t know who you’ve got as Jacksonville’s but they weren’t starting a first rounder and Lawrence would still fall into the question category. 

I think the decently long term top of the draft good players are Rivers who went fourth, and Ryan who went third, and Newton who went first. Stafford maybe who has been fine but hasn’t done anything. Goff has been fine but largely inconsistent on an excellent team.

With all the top of the first round busts and the star power of some of those mid-late first guys I think that’s where you take your shot, not at #2.