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Deshaunapolooza ****Official Deshaun Watson Speculation Megathread**** (Merged eleventy bajillion times)


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The only way Houston is going to get fair value is by getting a quality qb in return.

lets say behind the scence, AZ sees kyler Murrays limitations and do not think they can win a super bowl with him.  Maybe they offer kyler murray, a 1st and a 2nd round pick for watson.

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All that really needs to be said, but thanks for coming to bat for me.

I've changed my profile and cover photos in honor of the man who's about to do so much to change the fortunes of the Jets for the better. 

What scares me is that Deshaun is gonna read this thread and find out about Staten Island.

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7 minutes ago, jgb said:

They can (and probably will) tag him. Tag and trade.

Anyways, it was just a hypothetical to illustrate that some teams may offer more than picks so just looking at which teams have the most draft capital may not identify all the contenders.

I don't see any way HOU could afford to trade Watson (creating $5.6M in dead cap) and then sign Prescott for what would have to be around $37M/season, and that's assuming Prescott would even be willing to sign long term with them, which I would be surprised if he were.  I get that it was an example, but despite Jerry Jones' fervent believe in his right to have every toy, it's probably not possible.

It's really hard to see any team outside of NY and MIA with a reasonable shot to compete with them in terms of offers.  Sadly, if HOU hadn't stupidly traded two first round picks + for Tunsil and then proceeded to suck this year, MIA wouldn't be in position either.  HOU basically created a trading partner for their own disgruntled QB.  It's a hell of a story.

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1 minute ago, Joe W. Namath said:

The only way Houston is going to get fair value is by getting a quality qb in return.

lets say behind the scence, AZ sees kyler Murrays limitations and do not think they can win a super bowl with him.  Maybe they offer kyler murray, a 1st and a 2nd round pick for watson.

You don’t think Houston would be somewhat concerned as to why Arizona would be willing to move on?

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17 minutes ago, static14 said:

You have to think Miami can’t be 100% ready to move on from Tua. Not with such a small sample size. 

I wish Darnold had a 9-game stretch at any point in the last 3 years with numbers like Tua's.

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1 minute ago, Irish Jet said:

You don’t think Houston would be somewhat concerned as to why Arizona would be willing to move on?

Because they want to upgrade at qb.  Its not news that watson is better then murray.  

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8 minutes ago, nycdan said:

I don't see any way HOU could afford to trade Watson (creating $5.6M in dead cap) and then sign Prescott for what would have to be around $37M/season, and that's assuming Prescott would even be willing to sign long term with them, which I would be surprised if he were.  I get that it was an example, but despite Jerry Jones' fervent believe in his right to have every toy, it's probably not possible.

It's really hard to see any team outside of NY and MIA with a reasonable shot to compete with them in terms of offers.  Sadly, if HOU hadn't stupidly traded two first round picks + for Tunsil and then proceeded to suck this year, MIA wouldn't be in position either.  HOU basically created a trading partner for their own disgruntled QB.  It's a hell of a story.

NYJ and MIA definitely the front runners, will grant that all day. Just saying don't discount what crazy thing some team may do in this unprecedented situation.

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51 minutes ago, jgb said:

I can't guarantee it but if there were betting odds it'd pay out like 25-1 (or longer) that a drafted first-round QB is better than Watson.

Not counting Trevor Lawrence (since he is unattainable to the Jets)? You're on.

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Just now, JetPotato said:

Not counting Trevor Lawrence (since he is unattainable to the Jets)? You're on.

I think we'd both bet the same way lol

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2 minutes ago, Joe W. Namath said:

The only way Houston is going to get fair value is by getting a quality qb in return.

lets say behind the scence, AZ sees kyler Murrays limitations and do not think they can win a super bowl with him.  Maybe they offer kyler murray, a 1st and a 2nd round pick for watson.

Interesting option - particularly because it reunites Watson with Hopkins.  Made me want to do the math.

ARI is $8.7M under the 2021 cap.  Trading Murray pre-Jun 1 would create $20.8M in dead money with an $11M cap hit this year.  Then adding Watson's $10.5M pushes them down to about $13M over.  They could possibly swing it but it would take a lot of restructuring to get there.

 

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25 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Cimini had a good point this morning on ESPN Radio: in order for the Texans to get value for Watson, they need Miami to stay in the bidding. If, for any reason, Miami drops out, the Jets would be the only team with enough resources to throw at Houston to get him. 

So the Jets would be bidding against themselves. Thank God Macc is no longer the GM. He’d trade 5 #1’s and his espresso machine to get Watson.  JD pulled off a heist when he traded Adams. Part 1.  There’s gonna be a movie made about that one day.  JD will not be taken hostage by the Texans. It will be the other way around. Part 2. 

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57 minutes ago, jgb said:

If Watson's dealt, it will be after a long, dramatic process. It would be the biggest bidding war in NFL history. This is not a dude you ship out in the middle of the night after meeting with one team in secret.

Oh like Hopkins lol

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5 hours ago, choon328 said:

The Panthers would gladly give up 3-4 first round picks for him. Guaranteed. You're underestimating his trade value if you think it's just the Dolphins and Jets who will be in on him. The Jets have the upper hand bc of the #2 pick but if the Texans have no intention in drafting a QB that early then the #2 pick means very little. They'll likely be happier with future picks if they're going to purge the team this offseason and Najee this a rebuild year. Teams besides the Jets that should be interested in a trade for Watson are:

Colts, Patriots, Redskins,  Dolphins,  Broncos,  Giants, Lions,  Panthers & Bears.

At least one of those teams will throw many future picks at the Texans to get him. 

And if Watson wants out of Houston he'll gladly waive his no trade clause for any of these teams. Each destination is better than Houston and a better roster. I don't believe that is just the Jets or Dolphins that he'll accept a trade to and I don't actually think that's coming from him or his camp. 

We have #2. Gold. End of story. 

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Watson can force Houston’s hand. If he really wants to come here, Miami isn’t going to go bat crazy and throw zillions of picks for him. Tua would definitely be in the package. We are in so much better position than Dolphins. Why would Houston settle for Tua when they could have their choice of Fields or Wilson and picks. After all the dust settles, I don’t see JD offering more than this years 1st and next years 1st and some change.

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36 minutes ago, jgb said:

This is true when it comes to draft picks and Cimini is probably right. However, the lust for Watson may be so great that teams get creative. For example, what if DAL offers a package that includes Dak and Cooper?

The Texans are in cap hell and that's about $50 million in added cap between those 2 players. It would have to be a massive draft pick deal to acquire Watson. That's why the Jets and Dolphins are the names most mentioned. 

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25 minutes ago, Joe W. Namath said:

The only way Houston is going to get fair value is by getting a quality qb in return.

lets say behind the scence, AZ sees kyler Murrays limitations and do not think they can win a super bowl with him.  Maybe they offer kyler murray, a 1st and a 2nd round pick for watson.

If they don't think they can win with Murray why would Houston?  

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4 minutes ago, Wonderboy said:

We have #2. Gold. End of story. 

Theres not much difference between #2 and #7 if you're not taking a QB and especially if the Panthers were willing to throw an extra 1st in 2023.

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5 minutes ago, choon328 said:

The Texans are in cap hell and that's about $50 million in added cap between those 2 players. It would have to be a massive draft pick deal to acquire Watson. That's why the Jets and Dolphins are the names most mentioned. 

It was an illustrative hypothetical.

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6 minutes ago, choon328 said:

Theres not much difference between #2 and #7 if you're not taking a QB and especially if the Panthers were willing to throw an extra 1st in 2023.

LOL of course there is. Did you fail math?

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16 minutes ago, Ghost said:

#2 this year, our 2nd round pick this year, Seattle’s first next year, our 2nd next year. 
 

 

Not bad but swap Darnold for the 2 this year. That is a high 2.

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10 minutes ago, Biggs said:

If they don't think they can win with Murray why would Houston?  

This is so silly.  I dont know.  maybe the texans like murray.  Just because AZ doesnt think they can win w/ murray doesnt mean they are right.

Come on guys......................

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7 minutes ago, Joe W. Namath said:

This is so silly.  I dont know.  maybe the texans like murray.  Just because AZ doesnt think they can win w/ murray doesnt mean they are right.

Come on guys......................

I'm going to speculate that if the GM of the Cardinals gave any indication that he didn't think he could win with Murray after using their 1st pick two years in a row to draft a QB, he who would be fired on the spot.  Not to mention 2 HC in the same time frame.  Kingsbury would be gone the same day they traded Murray.

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1 hour ago, static14 said:

You have to think Miami can’t be 100% ready to move on from Tua. Not with such a small sample size. 

Logically yes. It is the Dolphins, this is a full on Dolphin move to try to get Watson. 

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I'm going to keep saying it: Deshaun will not get traded unless the Texans want to trade him. I think they will try to repair the relationship, and they will not trade him just because he wants to be traded. 

I obviously would want Deshaun here if he is made available for a realistic price (3 1st round picks) so in some ways I'm selfishly hoping things go bad, but at the same time I can't get this sour taste out of my mouth... 

The new narrative we're reading yesterday/today is that the issues Deshaun has with the organization run much deeper than who the coaches will be. Which kind of proves what I have felt all along... this was never about all the ancillary issues Deshaun pointed out like social injustice, lack of involvement in the GM search, discord with Easterby and ownership. This is a matter of the captain wanting to abandon a sinking ship. When the coaching search begins, typically the agents of star players vet out other agents to get their perspectives on how coaches viewed the situation. Deshaun, having clearly wanted to be apart of the process, likely did his own background work as well. What it all comes down to is this: his reps miscalculated just how bad Houston was set up to be. Bill O'Brien made disastrously moves that as a result, made it the least desirable coaching opening and an opening prime for a full-on rebuild. This is not something Deshaun wants to be part of. 

If he had such deep issues with the organization, why did he sign a 4-year contract extension? If he was so concerned with ownership, why wouldn't he take the Kirk Cousins/Tom Brady route? Kirk refused to sign a long-term extension with the team. Instead, he played on franchise tags, knowing that either he would ultimately be traded or would walk after the tag was no longer available. Tom Brady took less money in exchange for a provision that stated the Patriots couldn't franchise tag him, knowing in the back of his mind he wanted to leave in the near future. 

If Deshaun wanted a 2-year, fully guaranteed extension he would've gotten it. If Deshaun wanted a clause to eliminate the chance for the Texans to franchise tag him, he probably could've gotten it. But his reps didn't go that route.  Instead, Deshaun's reps got the deal that Deshaun wanted to the deal he wanted. There was very little negotiation on that front and the money was the money. It was "here you go, you're the 2nd highest paid QB in the league and you'll get an opportunity at another contract in your age 30-31 offseason (likely earlier for an extension)." Watson's response to his extension, which was less than 5 months ago: 

Quote

"The money is amazing. It's life-changing. It's great. But the biggest thing is for the McNair family, OB [head coach Bill O'Brien], Jack [Easterby], to just trust in me and believe in me, that I'm their guy, I'm their quarterback -- is the biggest thing, and that really touches me. Growing up, from where I'm from, there's not too many people that make it out. For them to just trust me -- man, it means the most. That's the biggest thing. The contract, that was gonna take care of itself. My biggest focus was that locker room, and just my performance on the field, because that's -- I mean, that's been something that really just got me from all the negativity. Just really all the negative stuff that we had experienced growing up."

What changed? As I pointed out in a few posts, the social injustice stuff had been going on long before he signed the contract. Ownership had been there long before the contract. He knew that the team would target Caserio to be the next GM when his contract tolled. The things that seem to bother Deshaun now (organizational structure, trading DeAndre, etc.) occurred long before the contract, yet he signed it. 

Deshaun only wants out because the team went 4-12, and the reps of the coaches they spoke to bluntly admitted that Houston was not an attractive job opening because of the state of the franchise. Deshaun wants to be the captain, but he also doesn't want to go down with the sinking ship. If Deshaun's reps had foresight, they would have foreseen that this was an aging roster with an unstable front office, and that a rebuild was inevitable in the near future. They should have advised their client this prior putting pen to paper, not after it all fell apart. 

This is what I hate about the new era of athletes. They sign a deal, they're happy about it for a few minutes, and as soon as things don't go according to their expectations they want out. It's a toxic mentality and not a team-oriented mentality. Guys like Brady, Cousins, Cam Newton, Dak Prescott, Philip Rivers, Matt Stafford, even Russell Wilson had dealt with scenarios where they didn't see eye-to-eye with ownership, were displeased what was going on with the state of the franchise or with their contracts, yet they handled it entirely different ways. I really don't like the way Deshaun is handling it, even if I selfishly want it to work. 

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4 minutes ago, football guy said:

I obviously would want Deshaun here if he is made available for a realistic price (3 1st round picks) so in some ways I'm selfishly hoping things go bad, but at the same time I can't get this sour taste out of my mouth... 

The new narrative we're reading yesterday/today is that the issues Deshaun has with the organization run much deeper than who the coaches will be. Which kind of proves what I have felt all along... this was never about all the ancillary issues Deshaun pointed out like social injustice, lack of involvement in the GM search, discord with Easterby and ownership. This is a matter of the captain wanting to abandon a sinking ship. When the coaching search begins, typically the agents of star players vet out other agents to get their perspectives on how coaches viewed the situation. Deshaun, having clearly wanted to be apart of the process, likely did his own background work as well. What it all comes down to is this: his reps miscalculated just how bad Houston was set up to be. Bill O'Brien made disastrously moves that as a result, made it the least desirable coaching opening and an opening prime for a full-on rebuild. This is not something Deshaun wants to be part of. 

If he had such deep issues with the organization, why did he sign a 4-year contract extension? If he was so concerned with ownership, why wouldn't he take the Kirk Cousins/Tom Brady route? Kirk refused to sign a long-term extension with the team. Instead, he played on franchise tags, knowing that either he would ultimately be traded or would walk after the tag was no longer available. Tom Brady took less money in exchange for a provision that stated the Patriots couldn't franchise tag him, knowing in the back of his mind he wanted to leave in the near future. 

If Deshaun wanted a 2-year, fully guaranteed extension he would've gotten it. If Deshaun wanted a clause to eliminate the chance for the Texans to franchise tag him, he probably could've gotten it. But his reps didn't go that route.  Instead, Deshaun's reps got the deal that Deshaun wanted to the deal he wanted. There was very little negotiation on that front and the money was the money. It was "here you go, you're the 2nd highest paid QB in the league and you'll get an opportunity at another contract in your age 30-31 offseason (likely earlier for an extension)." Watson's response to his extension, which was less than 5 months ago: 

What changed? As I pointed out in a few posts, the social injustice stuff had been going on long before he signed the contract. Ownership had been there long before the contract. He knew that the team would target Caserio to be the next GM when his contract tolled. The things that seem to bother Deshaun now (organizational structure, trading DeAndre, etc.) occurred long before the contract, yet he signed it. 

Deshaun only wants out because the team went 4-12, and the reps of the coaches they spoke to bluntly admitted that Houston was not an attractive job opening because of the state of the franchise. Deshaun wants to be the captain, but he also doesn't want to go down with the sinking ship. If Deshaun's reps had foresight, they would have foreseen that this was an aging roster with an unstable front office, and that a rebuild was inevitable in the near future. They should have advised their client this prior putting pen to paper, not after it all fell apart. 

This is what I hate about the new era of athletes. They sign a deal, they're happy about it for a few minutes, and as soon as things don't go according to their expectations they want out. It's a toxic mentality and not a team-oriented mentality. Guys like Brady, Cousins, Cam Newton, Dak Prescott, Philip Rivers, Matt Stafford, even Russell Wilson had dealt with scenarios where they didn't see eye-to-eye with ownership, were displeased what was going on with the state of the franchise or with their contracts, yet they handled it entirely different ways. I really don't like the way Deshaun is handling it, even if I selfishly want it to work. 

I think it's just also hard for some to say "lets wait on signing this 100 million dollar contract" when its in front of your face, after working all this time to get to this point.

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12 minutes ago, football guy said:

I'm going to keep saying it: Deshaun will not get traded unless the Texans want to trade him. I think they will try to repair the relationship, and they will not trade him just because he wants to be traded. 

I obviously would want Deshaun here if he is made available for a realistic price (3 1st round picks) so in some ways I'm selfishly hoping things go bad, but at the same time I can't get this sour taste out of my mouth... 

The new narrative we're reading yesterday/today is that the issues Deshaun has with the organization run much deeper than who the coaches will be. Which kind of proves what I have felt all along... this was never about all the ancillary issues Deshaun pointed out like social injustice, lack of involvement in the GM search, discord with Easterby and ownership. This is a matter of the captain wanting to abandon a sinking ship. When the coaching search begins, typically the agents of star players vet out other agents to get their perspectives on how coaches viewed the situation. Deshaun, having clearly wanted to be apart of the process, likely did his own background work as well. What it all comes down to is this: his reps miscalculated just how bad Houston was set up to be. Bill O'Brien made disastrously moves that as a result, made it the least desirable coaching opening and an opening prime for a full-on rebuild. This is not something Deshaun wants to be part of. 

If he had such deep issues with the organization, why did he sign a 4-year contract extension? If he was so concerned with ownership, why wouldn't he take the Kirk Cousins/Tom Brady route? Kirk refused to sign a long-term extension with the team. Instead, he played on franchise tags, knowing that either he would ultimately be traded or would walk after the tag was no longer available. Tom Brady took less money in exchange for a provision that stated the Patriots couldn't franchise tag him, knowing in the back of his mind he wanted to leave in the near future. 

If Deshaun wanted a 2-year, fully guaranteed extension he would've gotten it. If Deshaun wanted a clause to eliminate the chance for the Texans to franchise tag him, he probably could've gotten it. But his reps didn't go that route.  Instead, Deshaun's reps got the deal that Deshaun wanted to the deal he wanted. There was very little negotiation on that front and the money was the money. It was "here you go, you're the 2nd highest paid QB in the league and you'll get an opportunity at another contract in your age 30-31 offseason (likely earlier for an extension)." Watson's response to his extension, which was less than 5 months ago: 

What changed? As I pointed out in a few posts, the social injustice stuff had been going on long before he signed the contract. Ownership had been there long before the contract. He knew that the team would target Caserio to be the next GM when his contract tolled. The things that seem to bother Deshaun now (organizational structure, trading DeAndre, etc.) occurred long before the contract, yet he signed it. 

Deshaun only wants out because the team went 4-12, and the reps of the coaches they spoke to bluntly admitted that Houston was not an attractive job opening because of the state of the franchise. Deshaun wants to be the captain, but he also doesn't want to go down with the sinking ship. If Deshaun's reps had foresight, they would have foreseen that this was an aging roster with an unstable front office, and that a rebuild was inevitable in the near future. They should have advised their client this prior putting pen to paper, not after it all fell apart. 

This is what I hate about the new era of athletes. They sign a deal, they're happy about it for a few minutes, and as soon as things don't go according to their expectations they want out. It's a toxic mentality and not a team-oriented mentality. Guys like Brady, Cousins, Cam Newton, Dak Prescott, Philip Rivers, Matt Stafford, even Russell Wilson had dealt with scenarios where they didn't see eye-to-eye with ownership, were displeased what was going on with the state of the franchise or with their contracts, yet they handled it entirely different ways. I really don't like the way Deshaun is handling it, even if I selfishly want it to work. 

To be fair to Watson, the team had a 5th year option and could franchise him for 2 years.  It's pretty tough to become an FA out of your rookie deal.  It also comes with substantial financial risk if you get badly hurt. 

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40 minutes ago, choon328 said:

Theres not much difference between #2 and #7 if you're not taking a QB and especially if the Panthers were willing to throw an extra 1st in 2023.

If the plan isn't to take a QB then you can trade down from #2 for a haul of picks

#2 >>> #7

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