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Deshaunapolooza ****Official Deshaun Watson Speculation Megathread**** (Merged eleventy bajillion times)


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9 hours ago, Icer said:

The #2 pick, and 2 more firsts over the next three years. Take it or leave it

Uh no. And what did we give up for that guy who's your avatar?  Just goes to show you what you can pull off when another team is really in no position to be pushy.  There are only so many teams with the collateral to get him and again, Watson can veto any trade destination.  We dont have to sell the farm. 

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All that really needs to be said, but thanks for coming to bat for me.

I've changed my profile and cover photos in honor of the man who's about to do so much to change the fortunes of the Jets for the better. 

What scares me is that Deshaun is gonna read this thread and find out about Staten Island.

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9 hours ago, jgb said:

Yeah so again verbatim as I said performance/personality drives endorsements, not the city you play in. Thank you.

its a package. Eli had location and success, but not the personality or cool factor. Rodgers and Mahomes have talent, success and personality. Watson coming to NY and winning a SB would combine what all those guys had plus doing it in the city in the center of the world. A young, athletic, black role model QB leading the jets to a Superbowl, and the fact that he is a genuine good person, it's another level. 

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4 minutes ago, joebabyny said:

its a package. Eli had location and success, but not the personality or cool factor. Rodgers and Mahomes have talent, success and personality. Watson coming to NY and winning a SB would combine what all those guys had plus doing it in the city in the center of the world. A young, athletic, black role model QB leading the jets to a Superbowl, and the fact that he is a genuine good person, it's another level. 

There’s no correlation between market and the highest paid list, in fact there’s a reverse correlation although I am not suggesting smaller market is most conducive to endorsement deals.

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4 hours ago, Wonderboy said:

Uh no. And what did we give up for that guy who's your avatar?  Just goes to show you what you can pull off when another team is really in no position to be pushy.  There are only so many teams with the collateral to get him and again, Watson can veto any trade destination.  We dont have to sell the farm. 

The Panthers would gladly give up 3-4 first round picks for him. Guaranteed. You're underestimating his trade value if you think it's just the Dolphins and Jets who will be in on him. The Jets have the upper hand bc of the #2 pick but if the Texans have no intention in drafting a QB that early then the #2 pick means very little. They'll likely be happier with future picks if they're going to purge the team this offseason and Najee this a rebuild year. Teams besides the Jets that should be interested in a trade for Watson are:

Colts, Patriots, Redskins,  Dolphins,  Broncos,  Giants, Lions,  Panthers & Bears.

At least one of those teams will throw many future picks at the Texans to get him. 

And if Watson wants out of Houston he'll gladly waive his no trade clause for any of these teams. Each destination is better than Houston and a better roster. I don't believe that is just the Jets or Dolphins that he'll accept a trade to and I don't actually think that's coming from him or his camp. 

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11 hours ago, joebabyny said:

its a package. Eli had location and success, but not the personality or cool factor. Rodgers and Mahomes have talent, success and personality. Watson coming to NY and winning a SB would combine what all those guys had plus doing it in the city in the center of the world. A young, athletic, black role model QB leading the jets to a Superbowl, and the fact that he is a genuine good person, it's another level. 

Looked up the stats. The article is from 2021 but the data might be a little outdated since Mahomes is not listed and I suspect he probably should be (market rank #32), which would further illustrate the point:

1. Drew Brees / New Orleans / Market rank: #50

2. Brady / Boston-TB / #9 and #11, respectively

3. Rodgers / GB /  #67

4. Matt Ryan / ATL /  #10

5. Cam / Charlotte-Boston / #23 and #9, respectively

6. Wentz / Philly / #4

7. Julio / ATL / #10

8. McCaffery / Charlotte / #23

9. Mariotta / Nashville-Vegas / #27 and #39, respectively 

10. Cousins / Twin cities / #15

Average market size for top 10 players: #24

Average market size of cities hosting an NFL team: #19

The data simply does not support that bigger size of the playing market has a material positive impact on endorsement earnings -- if anything the opposite appears to be true, especially if I did a weighted average by earnings rather than a straight average by player. I will grant that players can make more for personal appearances/local TV in bigger markets than small ones. But that is peanuts in the scheme of things. We know this to be true due to the drop from Brees at #1 ($15M/year) to Big Ben at #15 (Pittsburgh is the #24 market) who makes “only" $1M/year. You can imagine what #25, #50, #100, etc. make (I suspect it's zero once you get into mid/high double digits). If I'm an OK player who doesn't understand the concept of cost-of-living, making that extra couple grand a year or whatever to cut ribbons at new car dealerships or do local furniture store spots *might* be a tie-breaker to prefer a big market but for a QB making $30M/yr, no impact.

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Bottom line is if Watson truly becomes available, you have to go do what it takes to get him.

Top 5 QBs don't just become available. I flat out guarantee you no one else the Jets put out there under center in the next 5 years will be as good, or even close. No one you can draft, trade for or sign. This is a golden opportunity if it all real. We'll see. I'm skeptical. 

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15 minutes ago, JetPotato said:

Bottom line is if Watson truly becomes available, you have to go do what it takes to get him.

Top 5 QBs don't just become available. I flat out guarantee you no one else the Jets put out there under center in the next 5 years will be as good, or even close. No one you can draft, trade for or sign. This is a golden opportunity if it all real. We'll see. I'm skeptical. 

I can't guarantee it but if there were betting odds it'd pay out like 25-1 (or longer) that a drafted first-round QB is better than Watson.

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1 minute ago, BigRy56 said:

Ok what’s the update here? We push this trade through yet or what?

If JD was a good negotiator, he'd convince Goodell to move up the trade window to get this deal done today.

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13 minutes ago, nj meadowlands said:

Theoretically, how soon could a Deshaun trade happen?  Do they need to wait until the start of 2021 league year?  After Super Bowl?

They can agree on a trade today ala Alex Smith to Washington which was announce on 1/30/18. It just won't become official by the League until 3/17 the start of the new league year.

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3 minutes ago, JetPotato said:

Bottom line is if Watson truly becomes available, you have to go do what it takes to get him.

Top 5 QBs don't just become available. I flat out guarantee you no one else the Jets put out there under center in the next 5 years will be as good, or even close. No one you can draft, trade for or sign. This is a golden opportunity if it all real. We'll see. I'm skeptical. 

I was having the same conversation with my brothers last night. While my one brother whose also a Jets fan was hesitant to give up too many draft picks and was leaning towards bypassing Watson and build up the roster instead, I told him opportunities to acquire a young franchise QB is extremely rare and JD must pounce and offer 3 first rounders. My other Giants fan brother then said would I be willing to give up 4 first rounders? I told him I would. Whatever it takes.

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3 minutes ago, JetsFanatic said:

They can agree on a trade today ala Alex Smith to Washington which was announce on 1/30/18. It just won't become official by the League until 3/17 the start of the new league year.

If Watson's dealt, it will be after a long, dramatic process. It would be the biggest bidding war in NFL history. This is not a dude you ship out in the middle of the night after meeting with one team in secret.

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12 hours ago, dcJet said:

Watson needs to patch it up or publicly request a trade soon.

 

 

I think he's waiting on the HC hire.  Once Bienemy is hired they'll be a big o'le group hug in Houston.

Watson is staying right where he is.

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7 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

I think he's waiting on the HC hire.  Once Bienemy is hired they'll be a big o'le group hug in Houston.

Watson is staying right where he is.

I think he’s all ready convinced himself he wants out regardless of the HC hire. 

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10 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

I think he's waiting on the HC hire.  Once Bienemy is hired they'll be a big o'le group hug in Houston.

Watson is staying right where he is.

it's literally been reported by schefter that the new HC hire won't make a difference to him.

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I still want to stay put and select Fields at 2.  Keep Darnold if you like but let the three of Morgan, Darnold and Fields battle it out.  Fields was hurt in that final game and could not showcase.  He received several injections inorder to finish the Clemson game.  I do not trust Watson in the Jets rebuild stage.  Almost seems to have alittle Jamal Adam's edge to him.

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2 minutes ago, static14 said:

I think he’s all ready convinced himself he wants out regardless of the HC hire. 

He's in a crappy situation.  The only way for the Texans to start becoming competitive again is to trade him.  The Fish and even the Jets would put him at least a year or two closer to being competitive than staying in Houston.  I think trading Hopkins and getting next to nothing in return was the dagger in the heart for him.  I guess elevating the team pastor to a role where he was able to influence that decision wasn't a good look either.

https://www.si.com/nfl/2020/12/10/ex-chaplain-jack-easterby-houston-texans-chaos-after-power-struggle-daily-cover

 

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2 minutes ago, NamathToCaster said:

I still want to stay put and select Fields at 2.  Keep Darnold if you like but let the three of Morgan, Darnold and Fields battle it out.  Fields was hurt in that final game and could not showcase.  He received several injections inorder to finish the Clemson game.  I do not trust Watson in the Jets rebuild stage.  Almost seems to have alittle Jamal Adam's edge to him.

My concern is if he gets impatient after a year or two and wants out again.  I'd still take the gamble, but I'm not at all opposed to going the Fields route.  

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2 minutes ago, nycdan said:

My concern is if he gets impatient after a year or two and wants out again.  I'd still take the gamble, but I'm not at all opposed to going the Fields route.  

I think this is the kind of move a player can get away with once in their career. 

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16 minutes ago, jgb said:

If Watson's dealt, it will be after a long, dramatic process. It would be the biggest bidding war in NFL history. This is not a dude you ship out in the middle of the night after meeting with one team in secret.

Cimini had a good point this morning on ESPN Radio: in order for the Texans to get value for Watson, they need Miami to stay in the bidding. If, for any reason, Miami drops out, the Jets would be the only team with enough resources to throw at Houston to get him. 

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2 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Cimini had a good point this morning on ESPN Radio: in order for the Texans to get value for Watson, they need Miami to stay in the bidding. If, for any reason, Miami drops out, the Jets would be the only team with enough resources to throw at Houston to get him. 

This is true when it comes to draft picks and Cimini is probably right. However, the lust for Watson may be so great that teams get creative. For example, what if DAL offers a package that includes Dak and Cooper?

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1 minute ago, T0mShane said:

Cimini had a good point this morning on ESPN Radio: in order for the Texans to get value for Watson, they need Miami to stay in the bidding. If, for any reason, Miami drops out, the Jets would be the only team with enough resources to throw at Houston to get him. 

You have to think Miami can’t be 100% ready to move on from Tua. Not with such a small sample size. 

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3 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Cimini had a good point this morning on ESPN Radio: in order for the Texans to get value for Watson, they need Miami to stay in the bidding. If, for any reason, Miami drops out, the Jets would be the only team with enough resources to throw at Houston to get him. 

Which suggests MIA should stay involved if only to drive the price up for the Jets.  It's what I would do in the reverse situation.

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4 minutes ago, jgb said:

This is true when it comes to draft picks and Cimini is probably right. However, the lust for Watson may be so great that teams get creative. For example, what if DAL offers a package that includes Dak and Cooper?

DAL can't include Dak in a package.  He's a UFA.

Cooper is a nice piece but I don't think the #10 pick is enough for HOU to get the replacement QB they need.

They'd probably have to legitimately include three 1st round picks plus Cooper plus maybe a few more lower picks to get HOU interested.  I can't see Jerry doing that when he could just overpay Dak instead.

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1 minute ago, nycdan said:

DAL can't include Dak in a package.  He's a UFA.

Cooper is a nice piece but I don't think the #10 pick is enough for HOU to get the replacement QB they need.

They'd probably have to legitimately include four 1st round picks plus Cooper to get HOU interested.  I can't see Jerry doing that when he could just overpay Dak instead.

They can (and probably will) tag him. Tag and trade.

Anyways, it was just a hypothetical to illustrate that some teams may offer more than picks so just looking at which teams have the most draft capital may not identify all the contenders.

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48 minutes ago, nj meadowlands said:

Theoretically, how soon could a Deshaun trade happen?  Do they need to wait until the start of 2021 league year?  After Super Bowl?

Great Villanova minds think alike.

This was my question in another thread with a poll.

Most folks said "March".

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8 minutes ago, jgb said:

This is true when it comes to draft picks and Cimini is probably right. However, the lust for Watson may be so great that teams get creative. For example, what if DAL offers a package that includes Dak and Cooper?

Dak and Cooper would cost like $60 mil per year, though

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1 minute ago, T0mShane said:

Dak and Cooper would cost like $60 mil per year, though

DAL would have to take some bad contracts back from HOU as part of the deal. It would be complicated, sure. Anyways, it was just the first hypothetical I thought of.

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11 minutes ago, static14 said:

You have to think Miami can’t be 100% ready to move on from Tua. Not with such a small sample size. 

Miami recently hired a qb coach that has ties to Tua.  That move makes me think that they are sticking with him at least 1 more year.

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12 hours ago, SAR I said:

The way that Mahomes chewed up and spit out the 2020 season makes it very clear:

We don't want Deshaun Watson.

There is no point in getting a win-now quarterback for this low-talent Jets team anyway, but with Mahomes locking down the AFC for the foreseeable future, we need to focus on the rebuild and reset with a young QB on a rookie deal.

SAR I

He's 25, not really a win now QB.

I do agree on not trading the farm for him, the team still has so many gaping holes. 

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