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The Stupid "Don't mortgage the future" argument


kevinc855

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2 minutes ago, y2k8 said:

 

Agree. It's like playing poker. You can play the long game but eventually need to commit to a hand if you want to win a pot.

It's time to shoot our shot. Let's go for it.

Yep eventually you gotta push your chips in. As the old saying goes "takes money to make money"

Is there a chance you lose? Of course, but its time to take a shot. 

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3 minutes ago, kevinc855 said:

I don't understand Jet fans sometimes. They hord money and draft picks like they are managing their kids 529 account when in reality the money belongs to the guy  they swear they hate, Woody Johnson, and draft picks outside of 2022 have done very little to ever help this franchise. Remmeber how we spent 2 years teraring down and tanking to get Zach. Yes that was smart. 

So here is why we should 100 percent "mortgage the future"

1) The Jets have a top 5 defense. The window on that type of defense is 2-3 years usually looking around the league. Defense is important, and more important in late season and playoff football. You can't underestimate this. 

2) Breece Hall, Garret Wilson year 2. Elijiah Moore year 3. Uzomah waiting to be unleashed. This offsense has weapons and CAN score with competent QB play, let alone star QB play a guy like Rodgers would provide. 

3) Contracts. All this rookie and 2nd year talent will be asking for extensions come 24 and 25. We simply will not be able to pay them all. OUR WINDOW IS NOW

4) The Jets arent rebuilding anymore, they are in execution phase. Losing a first rounder this year or in 24 is not a game changer or hurt the chances moving forward. If JD is all we may or you make him out to be he should be able to find starters in round 2-3 and depth beyond. 

The Jets need to be aggresive and absolutly mortgage the future. A Superbowl, a deep playoff run will bring legitimacy to this team and the rest will take care of itself. YES NOW IS THE TIME TO GO TO THE BANK AND ASK FOR THAT MORTGAGE. Our franchise depends upon it. 

The problem with this premise is it's all sunshine , rainbows and hope . It make assumptions.

1) AR will come here and look like the QB he was in GB , he won't be distracted by the NY/NJ spotlight 

2) Breece Hall comes back and plays like he did last season , ignoring it takes most backs a longer time to regain form

3) Jets have a Top 5 defense . While they played better in portions of the season, they also folded down the stretch like a cheap suit. The D has holes which are harder to fill if they trade for AR. 

4) If AR doesn't work out the Jets have just thrown away all the young talent that was accumulated .

Let JD and staff complete the build, they've made major progress, but now is not the time to go all in . 

 

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At some price everyone who has ever played the game becomes too expensive,  What is that point in 2023 for Aaron Rogers?  Who knows but the argument to "Risk <blank check> now and fill in the amount later" is just as silly as the opposite argument.

What these kids today are going to cost us in 2-3 years should definitely be a consideration but for a team that has not seen the post season in 12 years to be in a "OUR WINDOW IS NOW" mode seems wrong.

Teams take a year or three to get good and then they figure out how to stay good without killing their cap.  We are at the front end of that curve.  At best.

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The Jets one SB was built with draft picks.  THe two AFC championship teams were built with draft picks.  The 1998 team was built for a 2 year run.  We didn't make it in 98 and Vinny went down in 99.

The reason I think it's stupid to mortgage the future for a QB is we don't have a seasoned top of the league coaching staff to win a SB.  That doesn't mean I think Saleh can't be a good HC capable of winning a SB, it means right now he isn't that guy.

The reason I'm okay mortgaging the future for a run right now is we allready maxed out our draft capital.  It's in the rear view mirror.

There's a legit argument to be made either way.  There's also a legit argument that giving up a lot for Rodgers when he might well break down again next year doesn't get you what you want.  

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9 minutes ago, 56mehl56 said:

The problem with this premise is it's all sunshine , rainbows and hope . It make assumptions.

1) AR will come here and look like the QB he was in GB , he won't be distracted by the NY/NJ spotlight 

2) Breece Hall comes back and plays like he did last season , ignoring it takes most backs a longer time to regain form

3) Jets have a Top 5 defense . While they played better in portions of the season, they also folded down the stretch like a cheap suit. The D has holes which are harder to fill if they trade for AR. 

4) If AR doesn't work out the Jets have just thrown away all the young talent that was accumulated .

Let JD and staff complete the build, they've made major progress, but now is not the time to go all in . 

 

I'm old enough to remember the Favre year. It was glorious until it wasn't.

Of course we know there are no guarantees in life. Things can and will go wrong.

But my only regret for the year with Favre was that they didn't convince him to come back for year 2 and 3.

I'd have already had my SuperBowl if he stayed longer.

 

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I am on board with bringing Rodgers here but do acknowledge the counter argument and its validity.

I think if JD pulls it off he does not relinquish this year's 1. I do think that is a very important pick for the Jets to keep this year.

If he can do that - it significantly lowers the negative odds of making the move. 

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22 minutes ago, kevinc855 said:

I don't understand Jet fans sometimes. They hord money and draft picks like they are managing their kids 529 account when in reality the money belongs to the guy  they swear they hate, Woody Johnson, and draft picks outside of 2022 have done very little to ever help this franchise. Remmeber how we spent 2 years teraring down and tanking to get Zach. Yes that was smart. 

So here is why we should 100 percent "mortgage the future"

1) The Jets have a top 5 defense. The window on that type of defense is 2-3 years usually looking around the league. Defense is important, and more important in late season and playoff football. You can't underestimate this. 

2) Breece Hall, Garret Wilson year 2. Elijiah Moore year 3. Uzomah waiting to be unleashed. This offsense has weapons and CAN score with competent QB play, let alone star QB play a guy like Rodgers would provide. 

3) Contracts. All this rookie and 2nd year talent will be asking for extensions come 24 and 25. We simply will not be able to pay them all. OUR WINDOW IS NOW

4) The Jets arent rebuilding anymore, they are in execution phase. Losing a first rounder this year or in 24 is not a game changer or hurt the chances moving forward. If JD is all we may or you make him out to be he should be able to find starters in round 2-3 and depth beyond. 

The Jets need to be aggresive and absolutly mortgage the future. A Superbowl, a deep playoff run will bring legitimacy to this team and the rest will take care of itself. YES NOW IS THE TIME TO GO TO THE BANK AND ASK FOR THAT MORTGAGE. Our franchise depends upon it. 

Some really good points here. I think the jets are pretty much a win now team. Not because saleh needs to keep his job but it’s not long before these really good rookie and first year players will want bigger contracts. The jets have a two season window to get to the playoffs and take advantage of the good players.  Hopefully Douglas continues to fill the cupboard so they can afford to lose players as the seasons roll on. But right now let’s take advantage of the opening.

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Just now, Biggs said:

The Jets one SB was built with draft picks.  THe two AFC championship teams were built with draft picks.  The 1998 team was built for a 2 year run.  We didn't make it in 98 and Vinny went down in 99.

The reason I think it's stupid to mortgage the future for a QB is we don't have a seasoned top of the league coaching staff to win a SB.  That doesn't mean I think Saleh can't be a good HC capable of winning a SB, it means right now he isn't that guy.

The reason I'm okay mortgaging the future for a run right now is we allready maxed out our draft capital.  It's in the rear view mirror.

There's a legit argument to be made either way.  There's also a legit argument that giving up a lot for Rodgers when he might well break down again next year doesn't get you what you want.  

Nonsense. The Jets made the playoffs 7 times from 1998 to 2010 (and should have been more) with only 3 sub 500 seasons. That includes the Favre year btw.

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12 minutes ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

The quarterback they chose is a bust. 

We can't sit back and pretend like "hey we just need a tackle, a FS, maybe a pass catcher healthier/cheaper than Corey Davis and perhaps some young depth @ linebacker and we're set".

JD and Saleh have built a solid roster, but ultimately if ya fail @ QB, you need to adjust the initial plan.

They can get a QB like Carr and not give up draft picks and other capital as with Arod. 

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6 minutes ago, Biggs said:

The reason I'm okay mortgaging the future for a run right now is we allready maxed out our draft capital.  It's in the rear view mirror

THIS. You get it. 

Wer are in the part where we got the talent via draft. Now finish it off with FA splash. 

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2 minutes ago, Untouchable said:

The people who want to keep looking towards the draft to solve the QB position are kidding themselves.

The best we’ve mustered in half a century going that route is 2-3 quality seasons of O’Brien damn near 40 years ago and a small tease of Pennington 20 years ago before he wrecked his shoulder.

That’s it

The rest of the QB’s we’ve drafted since Namath left have been utter garbage.

Rodgers is one year removed from an MVP campaign and people are worried about him suddenly nosediving off a cliff…

Give me a break.

The Jets can still try to find a QB (and improve other positions) later in drafts, just not with a high pick and hope to develop that guy behind Rodgers whichever vet we get. 

Many of the better QBs in the league weren't first round picks.  Cousins,  Dak, Brady, Russ, Hurts...

It's also easier to find and develop a young QB on a winning team. No one thinks Brock Purdy would be Brock Purdy if he was starting for the Texans.

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I'm fine with this, but well aware the likelihood of this blowing up in our face is very high.  "Sustainable success" as a mantra is now gone, and most likely, we'll be cleaning house in a year.  It'd be one thing if we had $100 million in cap room as we entered this season, to allow an ability to build a team around said qb.  But we don't, and we may yet have to release players to make this work, even as our o-line is inexplicably mediocre and under-equipped going into this season.  And we've not even begun to discuss Quinnen Williams, who needs a new contract as well.  

The whiff on Wilson was huge, and while we'll maybe try to repeat the Fitzpatrick year, the likelihood is the cupboard will be bare a season or two from now as we look for a new QB, and as some of these rooks get closer to their second contract.

How's this for a suggestion:  "trade Q to the Raiders or GB (desperate for D), for their QB and a 2nd or third round pick."  Use Q as the bait to increase our draft yield because we won't have money left to sign free agents.  Q is more valuable than the expensive QB at this point, so we would be getting a pick or picks in return.  

That to me is the only way you make lemonade from lemons, but you do so as you put a serious crevasse in our d-line.  But maybe you draft a DT in rounds 1 or 2, along with that tackle you are looking for.

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2 minutes ago, y2k8 said:

Nonsense. The Jets made the playoffs 7 times from 1998 to 2010 (and should have been more) with only 3 sub 500 seasons. That includes the Favre year btw.

After Parcells failed he traded Key for picks.   After the 1999 team failed the teams that made the playoffs were built with draft picks.  They didn't make the playoffs when they brought in Favre.  

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6 minutes ago, EM31 said:

At some price everyone who has ever played the game becomes too expensive,  What is that point in 2023 for Aaron Rogers?  Who knows but the argument to "Risk <blank check> now and fill in the amount later" is just as silly as the opposite argument.

What these kids today are going to cost us in 2-3 years should definitely be a consideration but for a team that has not seen the post season in 12 years to be in a "OUR WINDOW IS NOW" mode seems wrong.

Teams take a year or three to get good and then they figure out how to stay good without killing their cap.  We are at the front end of that curve.  At best.

The only teams that figure out how to stay good have good QBs.  If they have them on rookie deals then they are set (KC w/ Mahomes early, Cinci now w/ Burrow, Buffalo last couple years, Philly now w/ Hurts.)

Once teams have to pay them, sure they have less to spend elsewhere, but there are still always in the mix because of their QB.  Detroit got “stuck” with Goff and his contract and they are in a much better position than us currently.

Also our “WINDOW IS NOW” because we cannot pay all these players in 3+ years.  Not if we want respectful QB play during that time.  Some are going to have to be paid elsewhere.

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6 minutes ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

The Jets can still try to find a QB (and improve other positions) later in drafts, just not with a high pick and hope to develop that guy behind Rodgers whichever vet we get. 

Many of the better QBs in the league weren't first round picks.  Cousins,  Dak, Brady, Russ, Hurts...

It's also easier to find and develop a young QB on a winning team. No one thinks Brock Purdy would be Brock Purdy if he was starting for the Texans.

I’m fine with that route

If they get Rodgers and see a guy in the 3rd or 4th round either this year or next that they like as a developmental option, then by all means.

But I’m beyond done with taking stabs at these dudes in the 1st round and forcing them into action from the get-go.

That 2008 draft with Ryan and Flacco completely warped peoples perceptions around the league. Before then it was commonplace to draft a QB at or near the top of the draft and sit him for a season or two. 

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35 minutes ago, kevinc855 said:

I don't understand Jet fans sometimes. They hord money and draft picks like they are managing their kids 529 account when in reality the money belongs to the guy  they swear they hate, Woody Johnson, and draft picks outside of 2022 have done very little to ever help this franchise. Remmeber how we spent 2 years teraring down and tanking to get Zach. Yes that was smart. 

So here is why we should 100 percent "mortgage the future"

1) The Jets have a top 5 defense. The window on that type of defense is 2-3 years usually looking around the league. Defense is important, and more important in late season and playoff football. You can't underestimate this. 

2) Breece Hall, Garret Wilson year 2. Elijiah Moore year 3. Uzomah waiting to be unleashed. This offsense has weapons and CAN score with competent QB play, let alone star QB play a guy like Rodgers would provide. 

3) Contracts. All this rookie and 2nd year talent will be asking for extensions come 24 and 25. We simply will not be able to pay them all. OUR WINDOW IS NOW

4) The Jets arent rebuilding anymore, they are in execution phase. Losing a first rounder this year or in 24 is not a game changer or hurt the chances moving forward. If JD is all we may or you make him out to be he should be able to find starters in round 2-3 and depth beyond. 

The Jets need to be aggresive and absolutly mortgage the future. A Superbowl, a deep playoff run will bring legitimacy to this team and the rest will take care of itself. YES NOW IS THE TIME TO GO TO THE BANK AND ASK FOR THAT MORTGAGE. Our franchise depends upon it. 

The "Don't Mortgage the Future" argument, i.e. aka the "Don't trade 2-3 1st Round Picks for Aaron Rodgers" is primarily made because the maker does not believe that the acquisition of Aaron Rodgers will result in the success some think.

As such, selling off several years of top picks, and $50M+ in cap space per year for several years, would be counter productive.  Short-term embarrassing failure, followed by a several year rebuild without top picks to help reload or find our own QB.

Personally, I understand the argument.  These kind of late-career future-HOF'er-rentals have been common in Jets history, and they rarely work out terribly well.  High cost, low reward.  I don't believe in quick fixes via old down-side-of-career stars, myself.  We're more than a mediocre Rodgers away from a Super Bowl right now.  

But I also understand why the team (as a business) would take the shot (it'll sell alot of seats and jerseys and tv adverts and newspaper ads), and I know why the GM and Head Coach would take the risk (fail in 2023 and they lose their jobs) and I know why fans, who always love big name players and are as desperate as drowning men, would be ok with the risk.

You never know, it could work out.  Not my decision to make, so you just roll with it.  Same as with the disappointing Hackett signing.  

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53 minutes ago, kevinc855 said:

I don't understand Jet fans sometimes. They hord money and draft picks like they are managing their kids 529 account when in reality the money belongs to the guy  they swear they hate, Woody Johnson, and draft picks outside of 2022 have done very little to ever help this franchise. Remmeber how we spent 2 years teraring down and tanking to get Zach. Yes that was smart. 

So here is why we should 100 percent "mortgage the future"

1) The Jets have a top 5 defense. The window on that type of defense is 2-3 years usually looking around the league. Defense is important, and more important in late season and playoff football. You can't underestimate this. 

2) Breece Hall, Garret Wilson year 2. Elijiah Moore year 3. Uzomah waiting to be unleashed. This offsense has weapons and CAN score with competent QB play, let alone star QB play a guy like Rodgers would provide. 

3) Contracts. All this rookie and 2nd year talent will be asking for extensions come 24 and 25. We simply will not be able to pay them all. OUR WINDOW IS NOW

4) The Jets arent rebuilding anymore, they are in execution phase. Losing a first rounder this year or in 24 is not a game changer or hurt the chances moving forward. If JD is all we may or you make him out to be he should be able to find starters in round 2-3 and depth beyond. 

The Jets need to be aggresive and absolutly mortgage the future. A Superbowl, a deep playoff run will bring legitimacy to this team and the rest will take care of itself. YES NOW IS THE TIME TO GO TO THE BANK AND ASK FOR THAT MORTGAGE. Our franchise depends upon it. 

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Not sure what mortgaging the future looks like to everyone. Is that 4 1st rounders for ARod?

I 100% want us to get a veteran QB and think we are close. But we still need to rebuild the OL along with getting a QB. Everything else os pretty much set.

If trading 2024 1st and 2023 2nd means mortgaging the future, the. let’s role. Get a tackle at 13, resign our guys and build a cabinet at 1 Jet Drive to house the Lombardi. 

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21 minutes ago, Phillyjet said:

I'm fine with this, but well aware the likelihood of this blowing up in our face is very high.  "Sustainable success" as a mantra is now gone, and most likely, we'll be cleaning house in a year.  It'd be one thing if we had $100 million in cap room as we entered this season, to allow an ability to build a team around said qb.  But we don't, and we may yet have to release players to make this work, even as our o-line is inexplicably mediocre and under-equipped going into this season.  And we've not even begun to discuss Quinnen Williams, who needs a new contract as well.  

The whiff on Wilson was huge, and while we'll maybe try to repeat the Fitzpatrick year, the likelihood is the cupboard will be bare a season or two from now as we look for a new QB, and as some of these rooks get closer to their second contract.

How's this for a suggestion:  "trade Q to the Raiders or GB (desperate for D), for their QB and a 2nd or third round pick."  Use Q as the bait to increase our draft yield because we won't have money left to sign free agents.  Q is more valuable than the expensive QB at this point, so we would be getting a pick or picks in return.  

That to me is the only way you make lemonade from lemons, but you do so as you put a serious crevasse in our d-line.  But maybe you draft a DT in rounds 1 or 2, along with that tackle you are looking for.

The Jets would be trading for Rodgers to go all in on chasing a Super Bowl over the next two years.

No way you trade one of the Top 2 players on the team and a guy who is arguably the best interior DL in the game right now instead of a shot in the dark draft pick.

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5 minutes ago, 56mehl56 said:

The Carr route let's you continue to fortify(draft) the missing pieces on this team while trimming some of the dead weight. Bringing in Arod at 39 and the associated picks/cap prevents the Jets from building the team for one last grasp attempt which results in another rebuild if they don't get there.

The problem with the Rodgers move isn’t the picks, it’s that the rest of the team isn’t good enough to beat the best teams in the afc.  

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Just now, Augustiniak said:

The problem with the Rodgers move isn’t the picks, it’s that the rest of the team isn’t good enough to beat the best teams in the afc.  

Exactly and then the Jets hands are tied with trying to plug those holes which ties back to the picks and Cap .

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For you win now guys, why does it have to be Rodgers?  I don't get it.  Any "average" QB gets us in to the post season.  Why are you so dead set on Rodgers? 

I guess I just don't get the Superbowl or bust mentality.  I'm just a humble post season guy.  You know, something we haven't done since 2010. 

Once you're in the post season anything can happen, just ask Eli.     

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