Deshaunapolooza ****Official Deshaun Watson Speculation Megathread**** (Merged eleventy bajillion times)

[Ghost]

15 minutes ago, King P said:

 

Does anyone know what Chad tweeted? 

[Jetsfan80]

2 hours ago, Sarge4Tide said:

So in a manner of a few weeks we've gone from "Trevor Lawrence will stay in school if Jets have 1st pick"  to "Deshaun Watson prefers the Jets"

 

I wonder if @Gastineau Lives regrets getting himself permabanned (for his post-Rams win tirade) yet.  lol.  

[Bleedin Green]

The logic of some behind refusing to even consider giving up any picks for Watson:

[Greenseed4]

44 minutes ago, IndianaJet said:

If Watson was really concerned about State income tax, he wouldn't leave the Texans at all.

I agree. This is about much more than saving tax dollars. There’s a movement happening in the NBA attracting superstars to Brooklyn, getting a young cohort in the NFL to follow could set up some NICE endorsement oppts. 

[Bronxville Jets Fan]

3 hours ago, dbatesman said:

Would love for this to be true, but Salguero is the Manish Mehta of Miami.

Right, but he’s also a huge Dolphins homer so I’m sure this pains him to write.

[Jetsfan80]

2 hours ago, Dunnie said:

Because Wilson will be on a rookie contract and is predicted to be a perfect fit for Shanahans system.

 

So --- Watson + two(possibly 3)  first round picks + $100million

or

Wilson + two to three more 1st round picks and Way less $$$$

 

There's no system where Watson can't succeed.  

Meanwhile, the pre-draft process hasn't even begun to play out yet.  Wilson may well be deemed more of a mid-late 1st round prospect.  Even if his skillset meshes with the system, that doesn't mean the Jets would zero in on taking him in the draft.  Fields could easily vault to the top of the Jets' board.  System be damned.

[bla bla bla]

1 hour ago, Beerfish said:

All true but there is always a cost analysis and you need to measure the cost not just in nebulous '1st rounders' but in actual potential players you could get with the assets we will have to give up.

I just did a mock where I traded down twice from #2 overall

Lets assume we give up both 1sts this year and our 1st next year for watson. 

The results end up like this:

Devonta Smith - WR

Jaycee Horn - CB

Travis Etienne - RB

Jalen Mayfield - OT

Joe Tryon - Edge

2022 1st rounder (our own)

2022 1st rounder (we got for trading down)

for

Deshaun Watson

This is 100% how we need to look at this, HOWEVER, now factor in the hit/bust rate of a first round pick is 50%, the bust rate for each later round drops dramatically. Which means statistically speaking only 3 or 4 of those players hit and then you are still banking on Sam Darnold pulling a historic turnaround from a 32nd ranked QB to a top 10.

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, Dunnie said:

I would be more than happy with Watson for a 2nd round pick. Period ... and we absorb his silly cotnract.

You over-valued Jamal Adams while he was here and now you massively under-value Watson.  Shocker.

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, Dunnie said:

I wish i did.

Well luckily @Mogglez DOES have insider knowledge, and he reported that the Jets are indeed very much interested in Deshaun Watson.  

[bla bla bla]

6 minutes ago, Ghost said:

Does anyone know what Chad tweeted? 

 

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, Beerfish said:

We were a desired spot due to massive draft resources and tons of cap room.

We trade for watson and both of those are massively diminished.

You can say , hey we now have a franchise QB, well in that case everyone and their dog should have been flocking to houston.

The draft picks would be diminished, yes.  The cap space would not.  With a couple key cuts (Henry Anderson and George Fant), we'd have at least $65M in cap space in 2021 even after adding Watson, and a projected $100M+ of cap space in 2022.

[joewilly12]

[heymangold]

3 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Well luckily @Mogglez DOES have insider knowledge, and he reported that the Jets are indeed very much interested in Deshaun Watson.  

Did he?  I was looking for his input.

[bla bla bla]

10 minutes ago, Ghost said:

Does anyone know what Chad tweeted? 

 

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, Beerfish said:

All true but there is always a cost analysis and you need to measure the cost not just in nebulous '1st rounders' but in actual potential players you could get with the assets we will have to give up.

I just did a mock where I traded down twice from #2 overall

Lets assume we give up both 1sts this year and our 1st next year for watson. 

The results end up like this:

Devonta Smith - WR

Jaycee Horn - CB

Travis Etienne - RB

Jalen Mayfield - OT

Joe Tryon - Edge

2022 1st rounder (our own)

2022 1st rounder (we got for trading down)

for

Deshaun Watson

 

All of that is worth trading for Watson.  

Fun toys like Devonta Smith and Travis Etienne don't mean a whole lot if the team doesn't have a QB.  

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, JOJOTOWNSELL said:

 

So no significant injuries in 4 years.  Looks good to me.  

[bla bla bla]

1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

All of that is worth trading for Watson.  

Fun toys like Devonta Smith and Travis Etienne don't mean a whole lot if the team doesn't have a QB.  

Not to mention statistically speaking half those guys will bust

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, HawkeyeJet said:

So why would you be ok to use multiple 1st round picks to "chase a QB" next year?  Isn't that exactly what you are opposed to doing for Watson, who is proven wheras whatever QB you "chase" is a complete crap shoot.

I don't get that stance at all.  

Especially since there's a strong probability that QB we draft fails.  That same risk doesn't come with Deshaun Watson. 

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, Wit said:

I legit can’t deal with this anymore. I was JUST getting over this due to McNair apologizing.

my heart can’t take this guys. Please help. 

McNair apologizing doesn't get DeAndre Hopkins back, get the front office fired or get the team sold.  It's not just Watson who's pissed with that franchise too.  JJ Watt, a Texan lifer, is fed up too.  

These issues run far deeper for Watson than a simple apology can mend.  

[flgreen]

Suspect it's going to be a weird day Monday when the Texans announce they have signed Bienemy.

 

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, Dunnie said:

you do understand that his contract is north of 100 million right ??

And?

Any QB worth his salt has to get paid eventually.  Watson's contract is actually quite reasonable for a young franchise QB.  And the Texans will be on the hook for a whole lot of guaranteed coin.  

[HawkeyeJet]

4 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Especially since there's a strong probability that QB we draft fails.  That same risk doesn't come with Deshaun Watson. 

Precisely. It seems as though some folks are comparing Deshaun Watson the sure thing vs 4 future 1st rounders that all are sure things, which most likely will not happen, even for the best GM.  Plus, you are taking the biggest crapshoot out if the equation.  

[Jetsfan80]

9 minutes ago, heymangold said:

Did he?  I was looking for his input.

He did indeed in another thread.

[Jetsfan80]

5 minutes ago, flgreen said:

Suspect it's going to be a weird day Monday when the Texans announce they have signed Bienemy.

 

 

Too little, too late.

And you're counting on Buffalo beating KC?  Good luck with that.

[football guy]

It's flattering to see that one of the best players in the NFL genuinely wants to be traded here of all places. The reputation of the team among players has changed overnight since Saleh arrived.

It's also amazing considering that Woody has been accused of things that many social justice advocates would seek to "cancel" him for, as well as having been a Trump Admin official and proud supporter... it goes to show that Deshaun's apparent grievances with ownership have very little to do about social justice and more to do with not wanting to play for a team that's destined for a long rebuild...

Anyhow, as I said earlier in the week, I think there's a very slim chance Deshaun is traded to the Jets. Would be great, and I'm sure Joe is looking into it (as he does any major trade), but I can't see Houston trading him within the conference nor do I see them trading him

[The Gooch]

YEAH!!!!! LET'S GO!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Bleedin Green]

9 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

And?

Any QB worth his salt has to get paid eventually.  Watson's contract is actually quite reasonable for a young franchise QB.  And the Texans will be on the hook for a whole lot of guaranteed coin.  

That's the thing so funny about the contract part of this when it comes to Watson.  With Houston having already paid out the hefty signing bonus, Watson's remaining contract is actually an absolute steal for a franchise QB today.

[Jetsfan80]

5 minutes ago, football guy said:

It's flattering to see that one of the best players in the NFL genuinely wants to be traded here of all places. The reputation of the team among players has changed overnight since Saleh arrived.

It's also amazing considering that Woody has been accused of things that many social justice advocates would seek to "cancel" him for, as well as having been a Trump Admin official and proud supporter... it goes to show that Deshaun's apparent grievances with ownership have very little to do about social justice and more to do with not wanting to play for a team that's destined for a long rebuild...

Anyhow, as I said earlier in the week, I think there's a very slim chance Deshaun is traded to the Jets. Would be great, and I'm sure Joe is looking into it (as he does any major trade), but I can't see Houston trading him within the conference nor do I see them trading him

Maybe it has something to do with Chris Johnson being on the other side of the aisle when it comes to how the players express themselves?

Woody Johnson has been gone for a while so perhaps players, especially those outside of the organization, are unaware of his political ideology.  Let's hope he keeps out of those matters upon his return, as the one good thing you can say about Chris Johnson was him advocating for the players in that regard.

[clayton163v]

3 hours ago, RogerVick1980 said:

He’s a an elite QB and only 25 that’s gold in today’s NFL where Qb is  by far the most important position 

You pray that if you have a high pick and take a Qb that he becomes like Watson.

You trade whatever it takes and worry about it later..

We’d still have plenty of cap room to improve the team  and we have enough picks where it probably won’t leave us completely bare of picks after the trade.

I will not give them three first round picks including this year's #2 pick.  I could make the argument if we were solid but we are not.  Far from it.  There is a reason we have so much cap space.  Nobody wants to come here.  No get rich quick schemes will work. 

[clayton163v]

3 hours ago, ScarletKnight89 said:

The NJ income tax matters but I don't think it's as big of a deal as I've heard some people make it out to be. Cause if that were the case, we'd lose out all the time to teams in Florida and Texas on players. There's advantages and disadvantages to playing anywhere.

Players around the league talk, he might just feel like the Douglas/Saleh pairing is setup for success. 

If you are a star player, the endorsement opportunities of the tri-state area overwhelm the additional taxes.  It is not even a wash, it is a clear advantage.

[Jetsfan80]

3 minutes ago, clayton163v said:

I will not give them three first round picks including this year's #2 pick.  I could make the argument if we were solid but we are not.  Far from it.  There is a reason we have so much cap space.  Nobody wants to come here.  No get rich quick schemes will work. 

* Yet

There is no easier way to attract FA's than having a young, elite franchise QB around.

[carlito1171]

Please someone get me Cal McNair’s number.....so I can convince him to hire Josh McCown as HC....in Jesus name ??

[cant wait]

43 minutes ago, Greenseed4 said:

I agree. This is about much more than saving tax dollars. There’s a movement happening in the NBA attracting superstars to Brooklyn, getting a young cohort in the NFL to follow could set up some NICE endorsement oppts. 

Plus if he could bring a title to the Jets it instantly vaults him to legendary status

[clayton163v]

1 hour ago, kelticwizard said:

Three #1s most likely, which is two more #1s than it would take to get Wilson.  Of course, since at least one of those #1s will be in 2022, it will equal a #2 in 2021. So to get Watson we have to pay one more #1 and one #2 than we have to use to get Wilson.

Let's just say that if we get Watson we will have to get lower drafted wide receivers.  As I see it, I would rather take my chances on Watson throwing to two second round wideouts than Wilson throwing to two first round wideouts.

 

Wouldn't you?

I do not value Wilson at the #2.  No way. 

Nor would I trade three 1s to get Watson. 

If we were better, then maybe.  But we are not.

[MykePM]

3 hours ago, Rhg1084 said:

This is fun, but it really doesn't change anything.  The article doesn't say that Watson doesn't want to go to Miami.  It says that he would prefer going to the Jets.  If Miami makes what the Texans feel is the best offer, and they go to Watson and say "we want to trade you to the Dolphins", is Deshaun going to say "I'm invoking my no-trade clause.  I'd rather go to the Jets."?  I doubt it.  He'll go to Miami because he wants out, and that's still a desirable destination for him.

Trust me, I'm not against the Jets making the deal.  In fact, I feel that the best case scenario for the Jets QB position is that we trade for Deshaun in a deal that doesn't cripple us.  I still think that the biggest hurdle to getting it done is Joe Douglas deciding to make an offer that the Texans feel is acceptable and their best offer.  I'll start getting excited when I hear indications that that might happen.