The Athletic reports the obvious

[hmhertz]

 it’s clear that Jets GM Joe Douglas is going to make sure he doesn’t make the same missteps that torpedoed the previous regime in New York.

 

If I'm not mistaken JD was our GM last year.

It was his job to help Darnold by upgrading

our skills position. His response was subtracting

Anderson and adding Perriman & Perrine

[Dcat]

Just now, hmhertz said:

 it’s clear that Jets GM Joe Douglas is going to make sure he doesn’t make the same missteps that torpedoed the previous regime in New York.

 

If I'm not mistaken JD was our GM last year.

It was his job to help Darnold by upgrading

our skills position. His response was subtracting

Anderson and adding Perriman & Perrine

Don't forget Mac handed him Bell and Crowder.  He drafted Mims and Becton.  So, Henry, WTF are you babbling about? 

[HawkeyeJet]

The other thing that I've noticed is that Douglas and now Saleh want the Jets to live up to their team name.  The influx of speed and athleticism over the past two years is very apparent.  That's not a unique thing just to the Jets, but for years we had been more slow, plodding, methodical type team.  That can work too, the Patriots have made it work for 2 decades, but I'm looking forward to seeing Gang Green flying around both sides of the ball.

[slats]

48 minutes ago, jgb said:

What other strategies are there beyond:

1. take the best player considering need; or 

2. take the best player without considering need.

Is there some third-way I'm not aware of? Taking the worst player at a position of not-need? If we agree these two categories capture the entire universe of draft strategies, then only one can be "BAP" -- #2. Everything else is... everything else. Once you start considering factors other than relative player grade, you're outside of BAP.

Drafting the better player at a premium position that is not necessarily a need at the time. Drafting for need high leads to passing over better players to fill holes with lesser talent. Over time, that leads to a weaker roster. 

Everybody loves the AVT pick this year, but that one's gonna be be questioned down the road for the trade up and the fact that it's going to be incredibly hard -if not impossible- to pay both Becton and Vera-Tucker down the line, especially with the QBs contract coming up at the same time at the LG's. So far, that pick is his outlier, having gone LT, WR, QB, WR with his other firsts and seconds. Don't want to get into next year just yet, but I imagine that Edge and CB might be added to that premium position early list. 

[CSNY]

BAP is fine when team is built and all pieces are in place throughout the entire team as opposed to drafting for need and building a squad like JD is doing. 

[JohnnyLV]

JD's rating system bakes in positional value as well as scheme fit which makes it easy to build a big board.

[slats]

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Can't wait to see Darnold with improved weppinz.....such as.....Robby Anderson....

 

Darnold’s support on the outside wasn’t much better, with Robby Anderson (94) and Jermaine Kearse (76) leading the Jets in targets during the quarterback’s rookie season in 2018. 

And Christian McCaffery and DJ Moore and a few rookies that were talked about a lot in this forum in Tommy Tremble, Terrace Marshall, and Chuba Hubbard. He's being given a real chance to have success there. It's not only a better cast than he ever had on the Jets, it's probably a better cast than Zach Wilson currently has. 

[Sonny Werblin]

56 minutes ago, Dcat said:

Crowder is 27 and could easily be signed to a longer contract if JD wanted it.  It was "superfluous" in the literal sense in that we had more dire needs than an inside-WR.  At first the failure to trade down in rd 2 drove me crazy.  Took 24-48 hrs to see that Moore can be a very special pick and was worth it despite bigger needs elsewhere.

When JD looks at Crowder now, i bet all he sees is draft capital. How long before he calls the panthers to suggest that Darnold’s best chance of success includes letting him throw to his favored WR with the Jets?

[32EBoozer]

4 minutes ago, slats said:

Drafting the better player at a premium position that is not necessarily a need at the time. Drafting for need high leads to passing over better players to fill holes with lesser talent. Over time, that leads to a weaker roster. 

Everybody loves the AVT pick this year, but that one's gonna be be questioned down the road for the trade up and the fact that it's going to be incredibly hard -if not impossible- to pay both Becton and Vera-Tucker down the line, especially with the QBs contract coming up at the same time at the LG's. So far, that pick is his outlier, having gone LT, WR, QB, WR with his other firsts and seconds. Don't want to get into next year just yet, but I imagine that Edge and CB might be added to that premium position early list. 

Let’s get 5 years of an upright Qb first and worry about contracts later (KC, TB)

[jgb]

19 minutes ago, Long Island Leprechaun said:

Well, there's a difference between a generic BAP in Kiper world and BAP that fits a particular system. So as long as by "need" you are nuancing that wrinkle you are correct. Also, because of system differences, your allocation of draft resources changes (i.e., zone CB vs. man CB). The puzzle is a lot more complicated than just picking the best overall rated player for a position. 

Which is why I don't think BAP as a strategy exists anywhere but in fans' minds as "the ideal way to maximize talent." No GM drafts in a vacuum. They're building a real football team not a fantasy football team. You can't take a Ferrari engine and plug it into a submarine. Things have to fit and work together.

[jeremy2020]

1 hour ago, sec101row23 said:

The contrast between what JD has done when drafting a QB in the top 3 and what Maccagnan did is night and day.   I’m not sure a GM in this league had a worse 5 year run than Maccagnan did, it truly was an embarrassment.  

They were dark times. Especially given how many people on here thought he was fine until year 5. 

[Lith]

41 minutes ago, genot said:

How can you draft a QB with the expectation he'll be the face of the franchise for 10+ yrs and not have a plan to build around him. The one thing i'll say is that in some of the drafts Mac was involved in, the o-line talent wasn't as rich as it has been the last two years. Irregardless, he needed to find a way to get some real talent in front of his newly drafted QB.

Exactly.  JD knew who he wanted on the OL and found a way to go get him.  The player still needs to prove that he was worthy of the pick and the capital given up to get him.  But he was decisive and found a way to get it done.  I like the approach.  But we still need to see how the players perform.

[Irish Jet]

Just now, slats said:

And Christian McCaffery and DJ Moore and a few rookies that were talked about a lot in this forum in Tommy Tremble, Terrace Marshall, and Chuba Hubbard. He's being given a real chance to have success there. It's not only a better cast than he ever had on the Jets, it's probably a better cast than Zach Wilson currently has. 

I thought this too but wasn't aware just how bad their line was. Christensen better be prepared to play right away. 

Pat Elflein is pencilled in to start, which says a lot. 

[32EBoozer]

Just now, Irish Jet said:

I thought this too but wasn't aware just how bad their line was. Christensen better be prepared to play right away. 

Pat Elflein is pencilled in to start, which says a lot. 

Did get the big Alabama G in draft, but still, there will be ghosts in Carolina

[Irish Jet]

9 minutes ago, slats said:

Drafting the better player at a premium position that is not necessarily a need at the time. Drafting for need high leads to passing over better players to fill holes with lesser talent. Over time, that leads to a weaker roster. 

Everybody loves the AVT pick this year, but that one's gonna be be questioned down the road for the trade up and the fact that it's going to be incredibly hard -if not impossible- to pay both Becton and Vera-Tucker down the line, especially with the QBs contract coming up at the same time at the LG's. So far, that pick is his outlier, having gone LT, WR, QB, WR with his other firsts and seconds. Don't want to get into next year just yet, but I imagine that Edge and CB might be added to that premium position early list. 

Vera-Tucker may be able to play tackle down the line. It wouldn't surprise me if at some point he's moved there.

[ScarletKnight89]

1 hour ago, sec101row23 said:

The contrast between what JD has done when drafting a QB in the top 3 and what Maccagnan did is night and day.   I’m not sure a GM in this league had a worse 5 year run than Maccagnan did, it truly was an embarrassment.  

Agreed

And Macc won the PWFA "Executive of the Year" award lol.

[UnknownJetFan]

1 hour ago, Doggin94it said:

I think it's crazy for this piece to suggest that Crowder being on the roster would make the Moore pick "seem superfluous" when Crowder is in the last year of his deal

Not just that but even though this situation is anew, we need to not just count on top 3 WRs on our team when we always see how many injuries occur. There are in most O alignments 3-4 WRs with I know sometimes a RB or TE depending on there ability in those slots, but we cannot have one of our top 3 being like a Berrious or V. Smit unless they improve drastically. So, depth at WR is of the essence for Wilson. My opinion would be ask Crowder to take 6-7M for this season instead of 10M since none of the 10M is guaranteed, and maybe to make him take that deal make it a 2 year contract for again something like 2 years 12-14M with a few million guaranteed, which a player always likes since he knows some of the many definitely goes in his pocket regardless. I think it is tough to just toss away Crowder since he has been the only real mainstay whereas Davis just came in and Mims is in only his 2nd year while Moore is a rookie. We cannot keep being skimpy with oh lets save money to use on another position when we know if we end up after some injuries with a JV WR squad for how many games Wilson is going to be impacted either mainly in the passing game, or we would have to go so run heavy he won't get as much passing downs to learn that part of the game as fats as possible. We need Wilson to go through his growing pains with the best Oline/Skill position players this year so hopefully by the end of the season and into 2022 where we have 11 more draft picks(hopefully getting more Oline and Skill position players) Wilson can be well enough up to speed for where we want/need him to be.

[32EBoozer]

3 minutes ago, Irish Jet said:

Vera-Tucker may be able to play tackle down the line. It wouldn't surprise me if at some point he's moved there.

That would solidify the #14 selection if he can play multiple positions 

[Sperm Edwards]

56 minutes ago, Lith said:

The difference is there for all to see:

• First three picks after selecting QB in 2018: Nathan Shepherd, Chris Herndon & Parry Nickerson
• Compared with what we did last week: Alijah Vera-Tucker, Elijah Moore and MIchael Carter

Don't know yet how htese players will work out, but the approach makes so much more sense now.

It's even more than that.

Unless Trubisky fell to his pick - or to within reach - which is bad enough, Maccagnan knew full-well that he was bringing in a new QB in 2018, whether it was drafting someone in what was sure to be a top 10 pick or picking up a UFA like Cousins.

What preparations did he make for this event? Drafted safeties with his first 2 picks at the top of rounds 1 and 2.

Then in round 3, to make up for pissing away what would've been as many as 4 compensatory picks because of his 2016 offseason, he traded down in round 3 to begin his barrage of three untalented receiving targets in Stewart-Hansen-Leggett. That's a time a GM should be trading UP for a higher-talent guy who slipped a bit (e.g. Kamara, Kupp, JJSS, Dawkins, Moton) instead of relying upon Enunwa (returning from almost breaking his neck) and Powell and Macc's placeholder-level OL starters. 

The icing on the cake is the idea that, had they added a serious playmaker or two on offense, instead of settling on the 3 losers he drafted, perhaps the Jets wouldn't have been at #6 - and therefore not in a position to trade up to #3 - in the first place; and may have ended up with Allen (or Jackson) at QB instead of trading/using all that draft capital the following year for whichever QB fell to #3. 

Then after trading up for the pick that'd unexpectedly become Darnold, he had no 2nd rounder that year. OK fair enough, but to then go with a DT from Fort Hays State? Of all the things this team did not need on day 2 of the draft it was another DT ffs. It only makes it worse that, with two 3rd round picks (each lower than the Jets' slot used on Shepherd), Baltimore drafted Orlando Brown and Mark Andrews. Nathan Shepherd. FFS. 

A middle school student merely armed with internet access, and no experience beyond playing fantasy football with his pubescent buddies, couldn't and wouldn't have drafted this poorly. 

I've said it before: Maccagnan was franchise poison.

[Dcat]

1 minute ago, 32EBoozer said:

That would solidify the #14 selection if he can play multiple positions 

I believe it was reported that his potential versatility to RT if needed is one of the reasons he was in JD's top 10.

[slats]

7 minutes ago, 32EBoozer said:

Let’s get 5 years of an upright Qb first and worry about contracts later (KC, TB)

I do not disagree, but that pick was pure need, and there will be some 20/20 hindsight regarding whether or not it was the best move down the road. 

7 minutes ago, jgb said:

Which is why I don't think BAP as a strategy exists anywhere but in fans' minds as "the ideal way to maximize talent." No GM drafts in a vacuum. They're building a real football team not a fantasy football team. You can't take a Ferrari engine and plug it into a submarine. Things have to fit and work together.

A clear example of a pure BAP pick, IMO, was Elijah Moore at #34. The Jets have a very good slot under contract and added two WRs in free agency, one of whom in Cole is also very effective from the slot. Even Braxton Berrios wasn't bad filling in when needed. The need pick there probably would've been a CB. A lot of folks here are excited that JD went offense with his first four picks, but I could argue that Moore at #34 was just simply the BAP on the board at that spot because I'm sure he was. That's the other praise JD is getting for this draft, getting a top 16 player in Moore in the second round. That was pure BAP value. 

[genot]

14 minutes ago, Lith said:

Exactly.  JD knew who he wanted on the OL and found a way to go get him.  The player still needs to prove that he was worthy of the pick and the capital given up to get him.  But he was decisive and found a way to get it done.  I like the approach.  But we still need to see how the players perform.

I liked his approach in the late rounds. Tweener safety's who could in time give us some good play at linebacker. Until then, maybe a diamond in the rough on special teams.

[32EBoozer]

5 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

It's even more than that.

Unless Trubisky fell to his pick - or to within reach - which is bad enough, Maccagnan knew full-well that he was bringing in a new QB in 2018, whether it was drafting someone in what was sure to be a top 10 pick or picking up a UFA like Cousins.

What preparations did he make for this event? Drafted safeties with his first 2 picks at the top of rounds 1 and 2.

Then in round 3, to make up for pissing away what would've been as many as 4 compensatory picks because of his 2016 offseason, he traded down in round 3 to begin his barrage of three untalented receiving targets in Stewart-Hansen-Leggett. That's a time a GM should be trading UP for a higher-talent guy who slipped a bit (e.g. Kamara, Kupp, JJSS, Dawkins, Moton) instead of relying upon Enunwa (returning from almost breaking his neck) and Powell and Macc's placeholder-level OL starters. 

The icing on the cake is the idea that, had they added a serious playmaker or two on offense, instead of settling on the 3 losers he drafted, perhaps the Jets wouldn't have been at #6 - and therefore not in a position to trade up to #3 - in the first place; and may have ended up with Allen (or Jackson) at QB instead of trading/using all that draft capital the following year for whichever QB fell to #3. 

Then after trading up for the pick that'd unexpectedly become Darnold, he had no 2nd rounder that year. OK fair enough, but to then go with a DT from Fort Hays State? Of all the things this team did not need on day 2 of the draft it was another DT ffs. It only makes it worse that, with two 3rd round picks (each lower than the Jets' slot used on Shepherd), Baltimore drafted Orlando Brown and Mark Andrews. Nathan Shepherd. FFS. 

A middle school student merely armed with internet access, and no experience beyond playing fantasy football with his pubescent buddies, couldn't and wouldn't have drafted this poorly. 

I've said it before: Maccagnan was franchise poison.

 

MacDaddy.... the antithesis to taking flight!

[jgb]

5 minutes ago, slats said:

I do not disagree, but that pick was pure need, and there will be some 20/20 hindsight regarding whether or not it was the best move down the road. 

A clear example of a pure BAP pick, IMO, was Elijah Moore at #34. The Jets have a very good slot under contract and added two WRs in free agency, one of whom in Cole is also very effective from the slot. Even Braxton Berrios wasn't bad filling in when needed. The need pick there probably would've been a CB. A lot of folks here are excited that JD went offense with his first four picks, but I could argue that Moore at #34 was just simply the BAP on the board at that spot because I'm sure he was. That's the other praise JD is getting for this draft, getting a top 16 player in Moore in the second round. That was pure BAP value. 

A few examples of choosing a talented player at a not-need position does not mean a team is following BAP. It means in that specific pick the team assessed that the talent gap outweighed the need. The evidence is irrefutable that JD values need heavily in his decision-making.

[32EBoozer]

5 minutes ago, slats said:

21 minutes ago, 32EBoozer said:

 

I do not disagree, but that pick was pure need, and there will be some 20/20 hindsight regarding whether or not it was the best move down the road. 

Pure Franchise need. The OL has been the greatest weekness on this team for a half decade. Some times you have to lay out the capital like kid’s braces. 
Blind side secured for 4+ years. I think the Darnold failure weighed heavily on JD. Wasn’t even going to play around with staying put and hoping a top 3 OL talent fell to him at #23.

I do see your logic however

[slats]

1 minute ago, jgb said:

A few examples of choosing a talented player at a not-need position does not mean a team is follow BAP. It means in that specific pick the talent gap outweighed the need. But all other evidence is that JD values need heavily.

Lol, what? It means exactly that! He took the BAP over need high. That's the BAP concept that seems to elude you. Taking the best player on your board, especially at premium positions, regardless of need. 

BAP and need have met because the Jets had huge needs at QB, LT, and WR. If Joe Douglas does his job well, the roster will become more complete, and his future drafts will have even more Moore-type picks because he won't have as many needs, he can simply focus on the BAP to build a roster full of best players. Wait and see. 

[Doggin94it]

35 minutes ago, hmhertz said:

 it’s clear that Jets GM Joe Douglas is going to make sure he doesn’t make the same missteps that torpedoed the previous regime in New York.

 

If I'm not mistaken JD was our GM last year.

It was his job to help Darnold by upgrading

our skills position. His response was subtracting

Anderson and adding Perriman & Perrine

He brought in Becton and Mims in the draft last year

28 minutes ago, slats said:

Drafting the better player at a premium position that is not necessarily a need at the time. Drafting for need high leads to passing over better players to fill holes with lesser talent. Over time, that leads to a weaker roster. 

Everybody loves the AVT pick this year, but that one's gonna be be questioned down the road for the trade up and the fact that it's going to be incredibly hard -if not impossible- to pay both Becton and Vera-Tucker down the line, especially with the QBs contract coming up at the same time at the LG's. So far, that pick is his outlier, having gone LT, WR, QB, WR with his other firsts and seconds. Don't want to get into next year just yet, but I imagine that Edge and CB might be added to that premium position early list. 

As a practical matter, AVT and Wilson won't be coming up at the same time, because if Wilson is any good at all he'll be extended after year 3 (and if he's up-in-the-air enough not to be extended then, then he won't be getting the franchise tag after his 5th year option comes up). I also don't think it'll be that hard to pay both Becton and AVT at the same time; two premium contracts on the OL isn't crazy, especially when one is at the relatively lower price for an IOL (Thuney and Scherff aside, guards top out at 14M and no left guard other than Thuney is above 11)

[jgb]

26 minutes ago, slats said:

Lol, what? It means exactly that! He took the BAP over need high. That's the BAP concept that seems to elude you. Taking the best player on your board, especially at premium positions, regardless of need. 

BAP and need have met because the Jets had huge needs at QB, LT, and WR. If Joe Douglas does his job well, the roster will become more complete, and his future drafts will have even more Moore-type picks because he won't have as many needs, he can simply focus on the BAP to build a roster full of best players. Wait and see. 

No. When not following BAP, drafting decisions are made by weighing need and talent. Just because talent wins over need in some cases does not mean need is not considered. 

Need is irrelevant in BAP. It is not considered. It is irrelevant. Only the innate qualities of the player matter. The great balance of evidence shows that JD values need greatly in his draft strategy. Which is good because that is the best and really the only draft strategy employed by anyone.

BAP does not exist in practice. Which is why even its biggest proponents have to qualify the heck out of it.  BAP does not need to be qualified. It is a simple concept. The totality of it is within its name "Best. Available. Player." When one says, "taking the best available player also considering...." once they get to the "also considering," they've officially left BAP and are describing literally every draft strategy on Earth.

[Alka]

1 hour ago, sec101row23 said:

Agreed.  Maccagnan never had a plan as to how to build a roster and where to allocate his resources.   It was such a scattered approach that made little sense.  

I really hate to say this, but I blame it all on the Jets ownership.  If not for Adam Gase, yes, Adam Gase, we might still have Maccagnan still as our GM.  The one great thing that Gase did was push hard to get Maccagnan fired, paving the way for Joe Douglas.

The incompetence starts at the top, and that is the Johnson brothers.

[pdxgreen]

1 hour ago, sec101row23 said:

The contrast between what JD has done when drafting a QB in the top 3 and what Maccagnan did is night and day.   I’m not sure a GM in this league had a worse 5 year run than Maccagnan did, it truly was an embarrassment.  

And just our luck that it came right after Idzik's run as GM.

Wait a minute ?. That's not luck!

[slats]

1 minute ago, jgb said:

No. Drafting decisions are weighing need and talent. Just because talent wins over need in some cases does not mean need is not considered.

Ideally, you'd want to get where talent always wins over need in the first couple rounds, at least. That's how you know that you not only have a solid roster now, but that it's only going to get better. Steadily drafting for need over value is steadily taking lesser prospects over time. It's a losing strategy. 

[FidelioJet]

56 minutes ago, Dcat said:

Agree with this.  Moore's ceiling is way higher than Jamison Crowder's.  But Crowder, nevertheless, is a fine NFL inside WR with a year left on the contract.  Re-upping him with all the cash and cap space the jets have and will have for the next few years would have been easy.  It was NOT a position of need. But it was BPA at a premium position with the potential to replace a good player with a stud.  My initial reaction (that lingered for a couple of days at least) was that unless it was a dire need, JD should have traded down in round 2 hopefully recouping a mid-late 3rd rounder. Not sure why, but it took me too long to acknowledge that he was in JDs top 25 and at that point no one else came close at 34.

I saw this pick as much as a necessity as any other we had...

• Far too many injuries to WR's to think like this.
• Crowder was forced to play on the outside a bunch last year...He can fill multiple roles as a swing WR.  Hopefully Crowder goes from the easily the best WR on the team to the 4th best.  Plenty of 4 wide out sets, plenty of guys getting rest. 
• Having 4 good WR's in today's NFL is really what you need.  
• Mims is still very much a question mark.  As much as many around here want to glorify our previous 2nd round pick - he had 28 catches and no TD's last year.  He has a lot to prove..the least of which is can he stay healthy

 

 

[jgb]

21 minutes ago, slats said:

Ideally, you'd want to get where talent always wins over need in the first couple rounds, at least. That's how you know that you not only have a solid roster now, but that it's only going to get better. Steadily drafting for need over value is steadily taking lesser prospects over time. It's a losing strategy. 

I see it as the opposite. Once you get super deep in the draft where the variance of outcomes approaches randomness, drafting for pure talent is viable because if you are depending on 6th and 7th rounders to fill needs, you're in deep doo doo. These are lotto tickets and athletically-talented guys tend to be able to contribute on specials which is how many of these late rounders can hang onto a team.

And by the way, no one is saying "draft need over talent." I'm just saying I completely renounce BAP which is 100% talent-focused and 0% need. We can debate the ideal relative weighting of each but once you insert even the aroma of need into the recipe, it ain't BAP no more. BAP is pure. BAP is unadulterated. BAP asks for no quarter and curries no favor.

[Bowles Movement]

1 hour ago, Dcat said:

Crowder is 27 and could easily be signed to a longer contract if JD wanted it.  It was "superfluous" in the literal sense in that we had more dire needs than an inside-WR.  At first the failure to trade down in rd 2 drove me crazy.  Took 24-48 hrs to see that Moore can be a very special pick and was worth it despite bigger needs elsewhere.

I like the pick.  It gives us injury protection this year and allows him a year to adjust to the NFL if he needs some seasoning.  I also think he will eventually be a better and more dangerous player for us than Crowder ever was.

[JoJoTownsell1]

2 hours ago, sec101row23 said:

The contrast between what JD has done when drafting a QB in the top 3 and what Maccagnan did is night and day.   I’m not sure a GM in this league had a worse 5 year run than Maccagnan did, it truly was an embarrassment.  

The only good thing Mac did was make us forget how bad Idzik was.