How many NFL owners will actually be willing to trade for Watson?

[slimjasi]

There has been a lot of speculation on this board about where Watson will end up. John Mara (NYG co-owner) flat out said today that the Giants weren't interested and brought up the allegations against him as a chief reason why. 

My question is - which owners will actually be willing to deal with the media headache that bringing in an accused serial predator entails? Could this be a very short list? Is it possible he will be blackballed for at least another year? 

I'm not convinced the market for Watson is going to be anywhere near as big as previously thought. 

 

[Barry McCockinner]

Maybe Jim Irsay after a weekend binge?

[slimjasi]

2 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Maybe Jim Irsay after a weekend binge?

[CanadaSteve]

Hopefully nobody.

BUT....this is the NFL, and the NFL means money.  And to make lots of money, you need to win.

[slats]

I’m really curious, too. Does the league step in to silence these accusers? Do they guarantee that? Can Watson behave himself going forward? Do you give up premium draft picks and a big contract for this level of risk? I don’t, and it would probably burn me. Sadly, someone will probably make the move, and benefit. It’s kinda gross. 

[football guy]

Fun thing to ponder. He holds some cards, but at the same time he doesn't. If teams he wants to go to refuse to trade for him (i.e. MIA, NYG), then he's going to find himself begging for a team to do so, but then HOU won't trade him without a team meeting their asking price... bottom-line it could get weird. 

One team who I still think will try to trade for him is the Carolina Panthers, but they're a mess right now and they don't have enough draft capital. Would Deshaun waive his no-trade clause to go there?

 

I think the favorite as it stands today is Denver because they will have enough capital, have the need, and have shown a desire to acquire a veteran franchise QB, but what happens if Deshaun favors another organization for some unforeseen reason? One scenario I haven't ruled out is a 3-team trade between DEN-MIN-HOU... 

• Denver receives Kirk Cousins from Minnesota for what would likely be (2) second-round picks
• Minnesota receives Deshaun Watson from Houston for what would likely be (3) first-round picks and (2) third-round picks OR (2) first-round picks and (2) second round picks
• Houston receives picks via Minnesota. 

In that scenario, Minnesota moves forward with a new GM-HC-QB, Denver gets their QB, and Houston gets what they want + added bonus of trading Deshaun to the NFC. 

[The Crusher]

12 minutes ago, slats said:

I’m really curious, too. Does the league step in to silence these accusers? Do they guarantee that? Can Watson behave himself going forward? Do you give up premium draft picks and a big contract for this level of risk? I don’t, and it would probably burn me. Sadly, someone will probably make the move, and benefit. It’s kinda gross. 

Dan Snyder,, eh,,err, I mean his wife. I mean, what the hell else can ding their reputation at this point?

[JTJet]

29 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Maybe Jim Irsay after a weekend binge?

A dead prostitute will eventually wind up somewhere after they party together. 

[FidelioJet]

21 minutes ago, CanadaSteve said:

Hopefully nobody.

BUT....this is the NFL, and the NFL means money.  And to make lots of money, you need to win.

It's revenue sharing.  

Maybe you sell more stadium tickets but that's not where the money's coming from.  

You want to win and integrity about how you do is really the only question in play here...

[Warfish]

Only takes one.

[jackhuntr]

Teams took Micheal Vick back so anything is possible.

[slimjasi]

3 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Only takes one.

Definitely true, although he also has a no-trade, so he could totally end up having to agree to go somewhere he isn't really interested in playing. 

[slimjasi]

1 minute ago, jackhuntr said:

Teams took Micheal Vick back so anything is possible.

While I tend to think Michael Vick should have had his balls cutoff for what he did, there is a stigma around sexual assault that I believe overshadows even animal cruelty. 

[FidelioJet]

22 minutes ago, slats said:

I’m really curious, too. Does the league step in to silence these accusers? Do they guarantee that? Can Watson behave himself going forward? Do you give up premium draft picks and a big contract for this level of risk? I don’t, and it would probably burn me. Sadly, someone will probably make the move, and benefit. It’s kinda gross. 

I think you've already seen the push from both the NFL and ESPN - to try and bury the whole thing.  While it's not being completely ignored, when his name comes up its always about his trade value, when he'll be back....and how great he is...

Nothing about him being a bad guy.  It's the playbook the NFL will follow and promise to any team that trades for him.  He'll get his suspension - and then the league and its media cohorts will bury it and move on...

[FidelioJet]

1 minute ago, slimjasi said:

While I tend to think Michael Vick should have had his balls cutoff for what he did, there is a stigma around sexual assault that I believe overshadows even animal cruelty. 

Meanwhile Mike Vick is now doing national pre-games shows.

The NFL has no moral compass at all...

[FTL Jet Fan]

Miami. Nobody cares down here. Ross is the type of owner who could give a sh*t. 

[slimjasi]

1 minute ago, FTL Jet Fan said:

Miami. Nobody cares down here. Ross is the type of owner who could give a sh*t. 

But Ross just chose the Tua guy over the Watson guy, didn't he? 

If you were trading for Watson, why would you fire Flores instead of Grier? 

[bla bla bla]

34 minutes ago, football guy said:

Fun thing to ponder. He holds some cards, but at the same time he doesn't. If teams he wants to go to refuse to trade for him (i.e. MIA, NYG), then he's going to find himself begging for a team to do so, but then HOU won't trade him without a team meeting their asking price... bottom-line it could get weird. 

One team who I still think will try to trade for him is the Carolina Panthers, but they're a mess right now and they don't have enough draft capital. Would Deshaun waive his no-trade clause to go there?

 

I think the favorite as it stands today is Denver because they will have enough capital, have the need, and have shown a desire to acquire a veteran franchise QB, but what happens if Deshaun favors another organization for some unforeseen reason? One scenario I haven't ruled out is a 3-team trade between DEN-MIN-HOU... 

• Denver receives Kirk Cousins from Minnesota for what would likely be (2) second-round picks
• Minnesota receives Deshaun Watson from Houston for what would likely be (3) first-round picks and (2) third-round picks OR (2) first-round picks and (2) second round picks
• Houston receives picks via Minnesota. 

In that scenario, Minnesota moves forward with a new GM-HC-QB, Denver gets their QB, and Houston gets what they want + added bonus of trading Deshaun to the NFC. 

I like Carolina, Denver, and Minnesota as landing spots. I think the perfect situation for the NFL is Flores to Huston. I think no matter where Watson goes he will fracture the fan base.

[Peace Frog]

38 minutes ago, slats said:

Can Watson behave himself going forward?

I don’t imagine Watson to be someone who can control himself. 

[PFSIKH]

12 minutes ago, slats said:

I’m really curious, too. Does the league step in to silence these accusers? Do they guarantee that? Can Watson behave himself going forward? Do you give up premium draft picks and a big contract for this level of risk? I don’t, and it would probably burn me. Sadly, someone will probably make the move, and benefit. It’s kinda gross. 

League?  I doubt the league pays anything.  That will probably come from Deshaun and his 51 million career earnings.    Maybe the Texans throw some in as an apology for employing him and to get rid of their headache.  

I do not see how a team does it without knowing what is going to happen in court or the league is going to do. 

Plus, it is a huge financial hit for any team to trade for him.  Draft picks aside, you have to take on his 35 million base salary.  Only a third of the teams have the space to do it with half of them not being able to do much else or anything if they are able to trade for him.  

I think teams are playing chicken with Houston.  Last year was going to be a lost cause for the Texans because the team was not good so swallowing 15 million, no pun intended, was easy.  In 2022, that pill is going to be a 40 million cap hit.   

The Texans are compelled to do something, but what.

[FTL Jet Fan]

12 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

But Ross just chose the Tua guy over the Watson guy, didn't he? 

If you were trading for Watson, why would you fire Flores instead of Grier? 

Ya but he is leaving it up to the new coach, maybe while he serves his suspension. Flores didn’t get along with Grier but feel there was more to that, just from being down here and seeing all the press crap. My point is Ross is the type of owner that would do it, as it would be praised more so than Vilified.

[Joe Willie White Shoes]

21 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

While I tend to think Michael Vick should have had his balls cutoff for what he did, there is a stigma around sexual assault that I believe overshadows even animal cruelty. 

Michael Vick paid his debt to society. He lost a $130 million contract, went into significant debt and was bankrupted, and went to prison.  He has become an animal rights advocate.  There comes a point in time when people earn and deserve a second chance and Vick fits that category IMO. Watson hasn't paid any debts at all.  He is still just accused and has not admitted anything.  So far, he has lost one season of football, but was still paid.  

[slimjasi]

1 minute ago, Joe Willie White Shoes said:

Michael Vick paid his debt to society. He lost a $130 million contract, went into significant debt and was bankrupted, and went to prison.  He has become an animal rights advocate.  There comes a point in time when people earn and deserve a second chance and Vick fits that category IMO. Watson hasn't paid any debts at all.  He is still just accused and has not admitted anything.  So far, he has lost one season of football, but was still paid.  

Fair enough

[Beerfish]

The outrage over this has quieted down a bit but will immediately become very loud again once he is dealt. 

The first order of business is that Watson has to settle suits with hush money.

watson will also have to realize he cannot be so choosey or he wont get dealt.

But then again if he is getting paid what does he care or at least that is how it seems.

[Larz]

His future is  too uncertain and as far as I know he refuses to settle. 
 

trading 5 picks for a player that winds up suspended or worse is not ideal 

[jeremy2020]

4 minutes ago, Larz said:

His future is  too uncertain and as far as I know he refuses to settle. 
 

trading 5 picks for a player that winds up suspended or worse is not ideal 

Houston and Watson were foolish. They should have made enough peace to say he was going to start forcing the NFL to step in and suspend them making it very unlikely he'd be suspended again. If he was suspended a year, then teams would know he could start next season and would be willing to give up closer to what Houston wants for him..

As it stands, you're exactly right. Nobody is giving up anything of value for him because he's likely going to get suspended for a year as soon as someone tries to put him on the field. 

That means he'll have not played football in 2 years by the time he's back on the field so his value just keeps going down. Even if he wanted to settle, it would be difficult because he has to settle with *all* of them. One of them refuses to agree and he's still likely looking at a long suspension. 

That's before you get to the PR nightmare of trading for him. 

[Peace Frog]

16 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

 

The first order of business is that Watson has to settle suits with hush money.

The fact/idea that he’s going to need to pay hush money is really the root of the issue. 

[Joe Willie White Shoes]

8 minutes ago, jeremy2020 said:

Houston and Watson were foolish. They should have made enough peace to say he was going to start forcing the NFL to step in and suspend them making it very unlikely he'd be suspended again. If he was suspended a year, then teams would know he could start next season and would be willing to give up closer to what Houston wants for him..

As it stands, you're exactly right. Nobody is giving up anything of value for him because he's likely going to get suspended for a year as soon as someone tries to put him on the field. 

That means he'll have not played football in 2 years by the time he's back on the field so his value just keeps going down. Even if he wanted to settle, it would be difficult because he has to settle with *all* of them. One of them refuses to agree and he's still likely looking at a long suspension. 

That's before you get to the PR nightmare of trading for him. 

Nothing can happen until the criminal and civil cases are resolved.  A suspension now will mean nothing if he is found guilty or pleads guilty to some offense or loses a civil case to one of the claimants/victims.  No owner in his/her right mind trades for Watson until this matter is resolved and his culpability and playing status is determined.  

[heymangold]

I think the cost of trading for him asset wise, plus the backlash of actually trading for him on top of the size of suspension he’ll warrant from the NFL is a big deal.  I honestly don’t know that teams are going to trade for him. 

[johnnysd]

38 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

 

The first order of business is that Watson has to settle suits with hush money.

 

Here is the issue I have with that. Not all of the accusers are looking for money. I know Vrentas found one and there were a couple others that came forward and corroborated the behavior. Combine that with paying off the other accusers and you have to seriously go through some amazing mental gymnastics to think he is not guilty. And the burden of proof in the NFL is "more likely than not" not unanimous like in a criminal trial. So at that point if the NFL has any shred of integrity it needs to suspend Watson for a serious amount of time. What he does is predatory serial abuse. That said I think the NFL is just being super passive and hoping it goes away. It was reported that their investigation was more slut shaming than actual investigation.

He should already be on the commissioner's exempt list.

But one owner will not care and do the trade anyway

[Beerfish]

13 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

Here is the issue I have with that. Not all of the accusers are looking for money. I know Vrentas found one and there were a couple others that came forward and corroborated the behavior. Combine that with paying off the other accusers and you have to seriously go through some amazing mental gymnastics to think he is not guilty. And the burden of proof in the NFL is "more likely than not" not unanimous like in a criminal trial. So at that point if the NFL has any shred of integrity it needs to suspend Watson for a serious amount of time. What he does is predatory serial abuse. That said I think the NFL is just being super passive and hoping it goes away. It was reported that their investigation was more slut shaming than actual investigation.

He should already be on the commissioner's exempt list.

But one owner will not care and do the trade anyway

Half the people that end up in settlements are not in it for the money but that does not change the fact that non disclosures are always stuck in settlements.

[static14]

All it takes is one team.

[Hex]

Great, the Watson talks are coming back

[bd71]

Texans hire Flores and Watson stays.

 

[NYJets43]

One 

Mark Davis