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PFF-ZACH WILSON’S IMPROVEMENT


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AFC analytics exec: Buy

New York Jets quarterback Zach Wilson is PFF’s highest-graded quarterback from the 2021 NFL Draft class this season, and it’s a testament to both continuity and building around a young signal-caller (and potentially a small sample size).

Among quarterbacks taken in the first round of last year’s draft — Wilson, Trevor Lawrence, Trey Lance, Justin Fields and Mac Jones — the Jets quarterback earned the lowest grade as a rookie.

2021 NFL Draft QB grades as rookies

QB                  Grade.  Snaps

Mac Jones.      80.0.   1,124

Justin Fields    64.2      634

Trey Lance.     59.9.      179

T Lawrence.    59.6.   1,076

Zach Wilson    59.3.      741

Davis Mills       8.5.       743

Wilson then missed a large chunk of training camp, two preseason games and the Jets’ first three regular season games with a knee injury. It hasn’t affected his performance in his return to the field.

He’s earned a 77.4 PFF grade and won both of his starts this season.

2021 NFL Draft QB grades in 2022

QB                    Grade.   Snaps

Zach Wilson      77.4        129

Davis Mills.        70.0       301

T Lawrence       61.7.       337

Mac Jones       58.4        190

Justin Fields    57.2         274

Trey Lance      53.1           84

Wilson’s wins came against the now 1-4 Pittsburgh Steelers and the 3-2 Miami Dolphins, who were down to third-string rookie quarterback Skylar Thompson for most of the game.

The Steelers’ defense currently ranks 21st in expected points added (EPA) per play against, and Wilson earned a 69.1 PFF grade against them. The Dolphins’ defense ranks just 27th in EPA per play against, and Wilson earned an 81.9 PFF grade in Week 5.

So, is Wilson’s improvement an aberration, or should we be buying into his recent performances?

One AFC analytics executive sees definite improvement from Wilson but notes that offensive additions this offseason have aided his development.

“For all but a few QBs, surrounding them with as many weapons as possible is all that matters,” he said.

The Jets’ offensive line has been in flux all season and has ranked 17th in pressure percentage in Wilson’s two starts. 

Left tackle Duane Brown missed the first four weeks of the season but was back in Week 5. 

Mekhi Becton, who was expected to start at right tackle heading into the season, is out for the year. 

George Fant, who was expected to start at left tackle before the Jets acquired Brown following Becton’s injury, will miss at least two more games on injured reserve.

Rookie Max Mitchell, who filled in at right tackle because of all of the above, was placed on injured reserve prior to Week 5 and will miss at least three more games.

Meanwhile, 2021 first-round pick Alijah Vera-Tucker has played every snap moving around from right guard to left tackle and right tackle, and he's earned a 74.5 PFF grade this season. Left guard Laken Tomlinson (44.7 PFF grade) and center Connor McGovern (63.3 PFF grade) have also played every snap.

But the real offensive improvements have come at skill positions. Wide receiver Garrett Wilson is one of PFF’s highest-graded rookies, having earned a 76.0 mark. Wide receivers Corey Davis and Elijah Moore, both 2021 investments, each have over 200 receiving yards. Running backs Michael Carter and Breece Hall, drafted in 2021 and 2022, respectively, have been multi-faceted playmakers in New York’s offense. The Jets also signed tight ends Tyler Conklin and C.J. Uzomah this offseason.

And while Mills, Fields and Lawrence all have new head coaches this season and Jones and Lance experienced changes at offensive coordinator, Wilson has kept the same head coach in Robert Saleh and offensive coordinator in Mike LaFleur.

Wilson’s performance will be worth revisiting in the upcoming weeks to see if he can maintain his high level of play relative to the rest of his quarterback class. He currently ranks eighth among all NFL signal-callers in PFF grade while completing 32-of-57 passes for 462 yards with one passing touchdown and two interceptions. He has also added six carries for 17 yards with a rushing touchdown and one two-yard receiving touchdown. He has two big-time throws and four turnover-worthy plays on the season, and his average depth of target (ADOT) of 9.6 yards ranks seventh.

Lawrence recorded a 79.8 grade during the two-game sample size of Weeks 2 and 3 against the Indianapolis Colts and Los Angeles Chargers, and then he followed up those performances with a 27.6 grade against the Philadelphia Eagles and a 65.0 mark against the Houston Texans. So, the wheels could still fall off for Wilson, but he’s on the right path after a shaky rookie season, and the offense as a whole should stabilize when Fant and Mitchell return and as the young offensive skill position players gain more experience.

 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-buy-sell-zach-wilson-improvement-geno-smith-los-angeles-rams

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9 minutes ago, Warfish said:

I still don't like looking at Zach purely through the prism of the 2022 QB Draft Class.  

He could be far and away the best QB in that class.....and still suck.  That is why this is a flawed way to look at Zach.

All NFL starting QB's.  That is the pool of players for which Zach should be looked at/compared against.

 

 

13 minutes ago, Claymation said:

He currently ranks eighth among all NFL signal-callers in PFF grade while completing 32-of-57 passes for 462 yards with one passing touchdown and two interceptions. He has also added six carries for 17 yards with a rushing touchdown and one two-yard receiving touchdown. He has two big-time throws and four turnover-worthy plays on the season, and his average depth of target (ADOT) of 9.6 yards ranks seventh.

 

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11 minutes ago, Claymation said:

 

AFC analytics exec: Buy

New York Jets quarterback Zach Wilson is PFF’s highest-graded quarterback from the 2021 NFL Draft class this season, and it’s a testament to both continuity and building around a young signal-caller (and potentially a small sample size).

Among quarterbacks taken in the first round of last year’s draft — Wilson, Trevor Lawrence, Trey Lance, Justin Fields and Mac Jones — the Jets quarterback earned the lowest grade as a rookie.

2021 NFL Draft QB grades as rookies

QB                  Grade.  Snaps

Mac Jones.      80.0.   1,124

Justin Fields    64.2      634

Trey Lance.     59.9.      179

T Lawrence.    59.6.   1,076

Zach Wilson    59.3.      741

Davis Mills       8.5.       743

Wilson then missed a large chunk of training camp, two preseason games and the Jets’ first three regular season games with a knee injury. It hasn’t affected his performance in his return to the field.

He’s earned a 77.4 PFF grade and won both of his starts this season.

2021 NFL Draft QB grades in 2022

QB                    Grade.   Snaps

Zach Wilson      77.4        129

Davis Mills.        70.0       301

T Lawrence       61.7.       337

Mac Jones       58.4        190

Justin Fields    57.2         274

Trey Lance      53.1           84

Wilson’s wins came against the now 1-4 Pittsburgh Steelers and the 3-2 Miami Dolphins, who were down to third-string rookie quarterback Skylar Thompson for most of the game.

The Steelers’ defense currently ranks 21st in expected points added (EPA) per play against, and Wilson earned a 69.1 PFF grade against them. The Dolphins’ defense ranks just 27th in EPA per play against, and Wilson earned an 81.9 PFF grade in Week 5.

So, is Wilson’s improvement an aberration, or should we be buying into his recent performances?

One AFC analytics executive sees definite improvement from Wilson but notes that offensive additions this offseason have aided his development.

“For all but a few QBs, surrounding them with as many weapons as possible is all that matters,” he said.

The Jets’ offensive line has been in flux all season and has ranked 17th in pressure percentage in Wilson’s two starts. 

Left tackle Duane Brown missed the first four weeks of the season but was back in Week 5. 

Mekhi Becton, who was expected to start at right tackle heading into the season, is out for the year. 

George Fant, who was expected to start at left tackle before the Jets acquired Brown following Becton’s injury, will miss at least two more games on injured reserve.

Rookie Max Mitchell, who filled in at right tackle because of all of the above, was placed on injured reserve prior to Week 5 and will miss at least three more games.

Meanwhile, 2021 first-round pick Alijah Vera-Tucker has played every snap moving around from right guard to left tackle and right tackle, and he's earned a 74.5 PFF grade this season. Left guard Laken Tomlinson (44.7 PFF grade) and center Connor McGovern (63.3 PFF grade) have also played every snap.

But the real offensive improvements have come at skill positions. Wide receiver Garrett Wilson is one of PFF’s highest-graded rookies, having earned a 76.0 mark. Wide receivers Corey Davis and Elijah Moore, both 2021 investments, each have over 200 receiving yards. Running backs Michael Carter and Breece Hall, drafted in 2021 and 2022, respectively, have been multi-faceted playmakers in New York’s offense. The Jets also signed tight ends Tyler Conklin and C.J. Uzomah this offseason.

And while Mills, Fields and Lawrence all have new head coaches this season and Jones and Lance experienced changes at offensive coordinator, Wilson has kept the same head coach in Robert Saleh and offensive coordinator in Mike LaFleur.

Wilson’s performance will be worth revisiting in the upcoming weeks to see if he can maintain his high level of play relative to the rest of his quarterback class. He currently ranks eighth among all NFL signal-callers in PFF grade while completing 32-of-57 passes for 462 yards with one passing touchdown and two interceptions. He has also added six carries for 17 yards with a rushing touchdown and one two-yard receiving touchdown. He has two big-time throws and four turnover-worthy plays on the season, and his average depth of target (ADOT) of 9.6 yards ranks seventh.

Lawrence recorded a 79.8 grade during the two-game sample size of Weeks 2 and 3 against the Indianapolis Colts and Los Angeles Chargers, and then he followed up those performances with a 27.6 grade against the Philadelphia Eagles and a 65.0 mark against the Houston Texans. So, the wheels could still fall off for Wilson, but he’s on the right path after a shaky rookie season, and the offense as a whole should stabilize when Fant and Mitchell return and as the young offensive skill position players gain more experience.

 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-buy-sell-zach-wilson-improvement-geno-smith-los-angeles-rams

Numbers are very important. The only numbers I like to look at this season are wins and losses. I ask myself...Does he know how to win? only two games in for the kid and I refuse to allow myself to be carried away. It appears that his team believes in him. If he can continue to improve, I think that we will truly like the results. 

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10 minutes ago, Warfish said:

I still don't like looking at Zach purely through the prism of the 2022 QB Draft Class.  

He could be far and away the best QB in that class.....and still suck.  That is why this is a flawed way to look at Zach.

All NFL starting QB's.  That is the pool of players for which Zach should be looked at/compared against.

 

I mean - that's fair but QB's take time to develop. Comparing him to guys who came into the league at the same time is a good measure on how they're progressing. Comparing year 2 Zach Wilson (or any of these guys) to year 5 Josh Allen isn't really useful, is it? Obviously that's where you want him to get, but it can take some time.

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25 minutes ago, Warfish said:

I still don't like looking at Zach purely through the prism of the 2022 QB Draft Class.  

He could be far and away the best QB in that class.....and still suck.  That is why this is a flawed way to look at Zach.

All NFL starting QB's.  That is the pool of players for which Zach should be looked at/compared against.

 

You are not incorrect. But, in the NFL, particularly at the qb position, the first lens you look through is their peers. QB position because it is more of a long haul position with a steep learning curve.

Then you begin to compare to peers overall.

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43 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

I mean - that's fair but QB's take time to develop. Comparing him to guys who came into the league at the same time is a good measure on how they're progressing.

Not really, not like this.  What if the whole class are busts?  Is him being ever-so-slightly better than a bust meaningful?

Now, if you grouped "all QB's under 28" or something, that could hold more value as an analysis tool, but it's alot more work.

43 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Comparing year 2 Zach Wilson (or any of these guys) to year 5 Josh Allen isn't really useful, is it?

Last I checked, the job of those two gentlemen is exactly the same, NFL QB.

Artificially limiting the pool is just that, artificial.  22, 32 or 52, if they play starting NFL QB, that's the competition to which any other starting NFL QB must be compared against, because they hold the same job and face the same expectations of performance and responsibility.

Doesn't mean one cannot factor other things into that analysis of course.  Like age and experience.  Only that artificially limiting the analysis to "left handed QB's born in October on odd numbered years" doesn't really mean much.

JMO of course.

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1 hour ago, Claymation said:

 

AFC analytics exec: Buy

New York Jets quarterback Zach Wilson is PFF’s highest-graded quarterback from the 2021 NFL Draft class this season, and it’s a testament to both continuity and building around a young signal-caller (and potentially a small sample size).

Among quarterbacks taken in the first round of last year’s draft — Wilson, Trevor Lawrence, Trey Lance, Justin Fields and Mac Jones — the Jets quarterback earned the lowest grade as a rookie.

2021 NFL Draft QB grades as rookies

QB                  Grade.  Snaps

Mac Jones.      80.0.   1,124

Justin Fields    64.2      634

Trey Lance.     59.9.      179

T Lawrence.    59.6.   1,076

Zach Wilson    59.3.      741

Davis Mills       8.5.       743

Wilson then missed a large chunk of training camp, two preseason games and the Jets’ first three regular season games with a knee injury. It hasn’t affected his performance in his return to the field.

He’s earned a 77.4 PFF grade and won both of his starts this season.

2021 NFL Draft QB grades in 2022

QB                    Grade.   Snaps

Zach Wilson      77.4        129

Davis Mills.        70.0       301

T Lawrence       61.7.       337

Mac Jones       58.4        190

Justin Fields    57.2         274

Trey Lance      53.1           84

Wilson’s wins came against the now 1-4 Pittsburgh Steelers and the 3-2 Miami Dolphins, who were down to third-string rookie quarterback Skylar Thompson for most of the game.

The Steelers’ defense currently ranks 21st in expected points added (EPA) per play against, and Wilson earned a 69.1 PFF grade against them. The Dolphins’ defense ranks just 27th in EPA per play against, and Wilson earned an 81.9 PFF grade in Week 5.

So, is Wilson’s improvement an aberration, or should we be buying into his recent performances?

One AFC analytics executive sees definite improvement from Wilson but notes that offensive additions this offseason have aided his development.

“For all but a few QBs, surrounding them with as many weapons as possible is all that matters,” he said.

The Jets’ offensive line has been in flux all season and has ranked 17th in pressure percentage in Wilson’s two starts. 

Left tackle Duane Brown missed the first four weeks of the season but was back in Week 5. 

Mekhi Becton, who was expected to start at right tackle heading into the season, is out for the year. 

George Fant, who was expected to start at left tackle before the Jets acquired Brown following Becton’s injury, will miss at least two more games on injured reserve.

Rookie Max Mitchell, who filled in at right tackle because of all of the above, was placed on injured reserve prior to Week 5 and will miss at least three more games.

Meanwhile, 2021 first-round pick Alijah Vera-Tucker has played every snap moving around from right guard to left tackle and right tackle, and he's earned a 74.5 PFF grade this season. Left guard Laken Tomlinson (44.7 PFF grade) and center Connor McGovern (63.3 PFF grade) have also played every snap.

But the real offensive improvements have come at skill positions. Wide receiver Garrett Wilson is one of PFF’s highest-graded rookies, having earned a 76.0 mark. Wide receivers Corey Davis and Elijah Moore, both 2021 investments, each have over 200 receiving yards. Running backs Michael Carter and Breece Hall, drafted in 2021 and 2022, respectively, have been multi-faceted playmakers in New York’s offense. The Jets also signed tight ends Tyler Conklin and C.J. Uzomah this offseason.

And while Mills, Fields and Lawrence all have new head coaches this season and Jones and Lance experienced changes at offensive coordinator, Wilson has kept the same head coach in Robert Saleh and offensive coordinator in Mike LaFleur.

Wilson’s performance will be worth revisiting in the upcoming weeks to see if he can maintain his high level of play relative to the rest of his quarterback class. He currently ranks eighth among all NFL signal-callers in PFF grade while completing 32-of-57 passes for 462 yards with one passing touchdown and two interceptions. He has also added six carries for 17 yards with a rushing touchdown and one two-yard receiving touchdown. He has two big-time throws and four turnover-worthy plays on the season, and his average depth of target (ADOT) of 9.6 yards ranks seventh.

Lawrence recorded a 79.8 grade during the two-game sample size of Weeks 2 and 3 against the Indianapolis Colts and Los Angeles Chargers, and then he followed up those performances with a 27.6 grade against the Philadelphia Eagles and a 65.0 mark against the Houston Texans. So, the wheels could still fall off for Wilson, but he’s on the right path after a shaky rookie season, and the offense as a whole should stabilize when Fant and Mitchell return and as the young offensive skill position players gain more experience.

 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-buy-sell-zach-wilson-improvement-geno-smith-los-angeles-rams

 

1 hour ago, Warfish said:

I still don't like looking at Zach purely through the prism of the 2022 QB Draft Class.  

He could be far and away the best QB in that class.....and still suck.  That is why this is a flawed way to look at Zach.

All NFL starting QB's.  That is the pool of players for which Zach should be looked at/compared against.

 

 

BA8113E5-07CB-406B-832C-C3FCDE19EC52.jpeg

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The irony of this is the only person at PFF that liked Zach and the Jets this past offseason was Chris Collingworth. He felt the Jets could be the Bengals of this year and felt that Zach was dealt an unfair hand last year when the Jets lost their QB coach. No numbers, just his opinion.

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1 hour ago, Warfish said:

I still don't like looking at Zach purely through the prism of the 2022 QB Draft Class.  

He could be far and away the best QB in that class.....and still suck.  That is why this is a flawed way to look at Zach.

All NFL starting QB's.  That is the pool of players for which Zach should be looked at/compared against.

 

It’s the only and right way to look at a 2nd year QB who hasn’t played 17 games yet.  Why would anyone think he should be compared to a MAhomes, Rogers whoever.  That’s silly even though if you noticed they have him 8th in the NFL

Can the haters who masquerade as those who just like to say tbd just admit he’s gotten better and move on.  

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11 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Not really, not like this.  What if the whole class are busts?  Is him being ever-so-slightly better than a bust meaningful?

Now, if you grouped "all QB's under 28" or something, that could hold more value as an analysis tool, but it's alot more work.

Last I checked, the job of those two gentlemen is exactly the same, NFL QB.

Artificially limiting the pool is just that, artificial.  22, 32 or 52, if they play starting NFL QB, that's the competition to which any other starting NFL QB must be compared against, because they hold the same job and face the same expectations of performance and responsibility.

Doesn't mean one cannot factor other things into that analysis of course.  Like age and experience.  Only that artificially limiting the analysis to "left handed QB's born in October on odd numbered years" doesn't really mean much.

JMO of course.

Right because “left handed QB’s born in October on odd numbered years” is equivalent to quarterbacks drafted the same year. Good God imagine not being able to ever admit you’re wrong. Has to be taxing all the mental gymnastics you go through. Ok to group quarterbacks 28 and younger but not 2nd year quarterbacks? Good thing we have you here to let us know what counts. 

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25 minutes ago, Jets512 said:

Right because “left handed QB’s born in October on odd numbered years” is equivalent to quarterbacks drafted the same year. Good God imagine not being able to ever admit you’re wrong. Has to be taxing all the mental gymnastics you go through. Ok to group quarterbacks 28 and younger but not 2nd year quarterbacks?

Zach's positional competition isn't his draft class, it's all NFL starting QB's.  

If you want to be happy that Zach is better than Fields or Mills or Jones so far this year, by all means have at it, you certainly don't need my permission.  I'm happy he is too.

But IMO it's a mostly meaningless and artificially restricted pool for evaluation/comparison. 

If you disagree, great. No need to be uncivil about it.

 

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6 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Zach's positional competition isn't his draft class, it's all NFL starting QB's.  

If you want to be happy that Zach is better than Fields or Mills or Jones so far this year, by all means have at it, you certainly don't need my permission.  I'm happy he is too.

But IMO it's a mostly meaningless and artificially restricted pool for evaluation/comparison. 

If you disagree, great. No need to be uncivil about it.

 

While I agree wholeheartedly, I am hoping that we can be uncivil about it. ?

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4 hours ago, Warfish said:

I still don't like looking at Zach purely through the prism of the 2022 QB Draft Class.  

He could be far and away the best QB in that class.....and still suck.  That is why this is a flawed way to look at Zach.

All NFL starting QB's.  That is the pool of players for which Zach should be looked at/compared against.

 

Your a deadhead right?

”well the suns gonna shine on my back door someday”

Well the sun is shining. Today. You really need a tan. Dont let jerry die in vain

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3 hours ago, Jet Nut said:

It’s the only and right way to look at a 2nd year QB who hasn’t played 17 games yet.  Why would anyone think he should be compared to a MAhomes, Rogers whoever.  That’s silly even though if you noticed they have him 8th in the NFL

Can the haters who masquerade as those who just like to say tbd just admit he’s gotten better and move on.  

The posters who have been constantly anti-Zach have been quiet recently. An indication that he is playing well.

Bill Parcells used to say that you judge QBs by TDs. In his last 14 drives, Zach has lead the Jets to 7 TDs.

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4 hours ago, slats said:

Oh really, AFC analytics executive. Weapons matter? Who’da thunk? 

And continuity is important, too? Weird. 

Fresh Off The Boat Reaction GIF

Right, makes you think you should've gone to college for sports management. Then you remember it's not what you know... Gotta love the fancy title though. "I'm an Analytics Executive." Yeah, that guy, and every other fantasy sports player... 

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