Where each of the Jets' draft picks ranked on pre-draft big boards

[32EBoozer]

Zaire Barns a real head scratcher!

https://jetswire.usatoday.com/lists/new-york-jets-draft-big-boards/

 

 

[LIJetsFan]

IMHO the above just confirms what most here already thought.  Not a raving success and not a dismal failure.  Remains to be seen where it falls, average, above, or below.  Still not even close to complaining about JD.  2023 will turn out to be a weak NFL draft year IMHO.    

[sciond]

Actually this draft will be a good measuring stick in the quality of the Jets scouting department.

[Bronx]

2 minutes ago, sciond said:

Actually this draft will be a good measuring stick in the quality of the Jets scouting department.

Or maybe some undrafted gem(s) will balance-out their oversights. 

[Beerfish]

I'm not rankled at the positional ranking of will mcdonald I am rankled at who else we passed up who was there for us and the position and prospective usage of the player.  That is what rankled me.  I liked the Tippman pick. 

[Warfish]

So lets see:

Rd. 1 McDonald - Picked 15th: 
Avg. Rank:  29
Mean Rank: 25 

=REACH by 10-15 picks.  In the first round, that's a pretty huge reach tbqh.

Rd. 2 Tippmann - Picked 43rd
Avg. Rank:  53
Mean Rank:  57

=REACH by 10-14 picks.  

And so it goes for many of these picks this year.  A "JD knows better" draft where he picked guys others simply didn't rank or rate as highly.

Israel ay RB and Kuntz at TE the clear exceptions, both would be considered steals given their ranks vs. slot they were picked.

Ultimately, none of this ranking stuff matters, only how they play on the field, of course.

[Darnold's Forehead]

None of this matters.

[Hal N of Provo]

4 minutes ago, Darnold's Forehead said:

None of this matters.

Football or life in general? 

[bonkertons]

My guess is someone saw Barnes during one of their assignments and liked him a lot.  Then they brought him in for the pre-draft interviews and they all fell in love with him - especially Saleh and Ulbrich.  Especially to take him in the 6th instead of the 7th, tells me they thought someone else could have seen him the same way, and they valued him enough to not want to risk it.  Like if Kuntz went in Barnes' spot, and Barnes went in the 7th, would anyone really have batted an eye?

 

I'm personally pretty excited to see what Barnes can do.  I think the only pick that doesn't really excite me is JBC, but we'll see what they have planned for him.  I think all of McDonald, Tipp and Izzy will be impact players from day one.  The rest of these guys we'll have to be patient with, IMO.  

[rangerous]

I think Macdonald is the only real reach only because he was taken significantly higher than he should have been. But that was mainly because Douglas was stuck having to make the pick and it’s hard to say how the players picked after fifteen would’ve helped the team.  The thing too is that teams don’t always have an option to trade out and does it really matter if a guy like Tillman is also drafted a bit higher than thought if he fills an immediate need. I think this is where strict bpa drafting clashes with team need drafting.

[chirorob]

1 hour ago, Warfish said:

So lets see:

Rd. 1 McDonald - Picked 15th: 
Avg. Rank:  29
Mean Rank: 25 

=REACH by 10-15 picks.  In the first round, that's a pretty huge reach tbqh.

Rd. 2 Tippmann - Picked 43rd
Avg. Rank:  53
Mean Rank:  57

=REACH by 10-14 picks.  

And so it goes for many of these picks this year.  A "JD knows better" draft where he picked guys others simply didn't rank or rate as highly.

Israel ay RB and Kuntz at TE the clear exceptions, both would be considered steals given their ranks vs. slot they were picked.

Ultimately, none of this ranking stuff matters, only how they play on the field, of course.

Tippmann is all over the place, ranked from 64 to 67.

McDonald i do think they could have moved down and still gotten him.

[T0mShane]

I think people would stop worrying about consensus boards if they knew, heard, or saw most of the people involved in putting together media-based draft boards that factor into that consensus. There are legitimately four or five dudes who are connected and seem to know what they’re talking about, and then there are another 100 dudes doing rehash cosplay of those four or five guys.

Next year, @Maxman should seriously invest in putting together a crack team of JN bros to put together a “top 100” draft prospects and cook up a stupid mock draft every week, which they stridently, authoritatively go over on the JN pod just to see how easy it is to gain traction in the NFL draft space. A hedge fund would buy this place within a month’s time

[Larz]

These big boards prove every year that they are just guessing like the rest of us. All that matters is that the Jets scouts did a good job, and now it’s up to the coaches to take over. 

[undertow]

People put way too much stock in the group think of media members and dudes in their basement....mock drafts and big boards are good reference points but people need to stop treating them as gospel.

[nycdan]

19 hours ago, Larz said:

These big boards prove every year that they are just guessing like the rest of us. All that matters is that the Jets scouts did a good job, and now it’s up to the coaches to take over. 

The part that a lot of folks seem determined to not allow into their brains is that teams do not put the same value on players.  A player could be a star in one team's system and nearly useless in another's.  There is no way to create a single Big Board that works for all picks.  It's not a real stretch to assume that the Jets' war room not only has opinions on the players, but also on how they might be used in our system.  They also have insight into which current players become more expendable with each pick, which matters.

If they felt that McDonald would move the needle more over the next 3 years than Jones or JSN, then it is at least remotely possible they are more correct than the Nostradamuses in the media and on the fan boards.  

Just food for thought.

[Larz]

19 minutes ago, nycdan said:

The part that a lot of folks seem determined to not allow into their brains is that teams do not put the same value on players.  A player could be a star in one team's system and nearly useless in another's'.  There is no way to create a single Big Board that works for all picks.  It's not a real stretch to assume that the Jets' war room not only has opinions on the players, but also on how they might be used in our system.  They also have insight into which current players become more expendable with each pick, which matters.

If they felt that McDonald would move the needle more over the next 3 years than Jones or JSN, then it is at least remotely possible they are more correct than the Nostradamuses in the media and on the fan boards.  

Just food for thought.

Amen brother, hallelujah lol

[peekskill68]

2 hours ago, rangerous said:

I think Macdonald is the only real reach only because he was taken significantly higher than he should have been. But that was mainly because Douglas was stuck having to make the pick and it’s hard to say how the players picked after fifteen would’ve helped the team.  The thing too is that teams don’t always have an option to trade out and does it really matter if a guy like Tillman is also drafted a bit higher than thought if he fills an immediate need. I think this is where strict bpa drafting clashes with team need drafting.

Clearly they liked the guy.  If JD had a reasonable offer to trade out of 15 down 5-10 spots he likely would have done it.  Sometimes things don't fall the way you want them to...

[Larz]

There was an interesting comment in the last 1JD episode about Tippmann. 
 

“he’s the highest rated Center in this years models “. 

That sure sounds like analytics and I bet every team is using their own analytics and these draft experts don’t have access to it so basically they know nothing about how teams view players. 

[Beerfish]

1 hour ago, nycdan said:

The part that a lot of folks seem determined to not allow into their brains is that teams do not put the same value on players.  A player could be a star in one team's system and nearly useless in another's'.  There is no way to create a single Big Board that works for all picks.  It's not a real stretch to assume that the Jets' war room not only has opinions on the players, but also on how they might be used in our system.  They also have insight into which current players become more expendable with each pick, which matters.

If they felt that McDonald would move the needle more over the next 3 years than Jones or JSN, then it is at least remotely possible they are more correct than the Nostradamuses in the media and on the fan boards.  

Just food for thought.

The fan and media Nostradamuses have been right more often than jets management over about the last 10 years.

Douglas and his regime have not garnered enough positive rep at this point to just assume they are making good choices.

[nycdan]

6 hours ago, Beerfish said:

The fan and media Nostradamuses have been right more often than jets management over about the last 10 years.

Douglas and his regime have not garnered enough positive rep at this point to just assume they are making good choices.

No, they really haven't.  And you can keep bringing up the last 10 years, but it's only the last 4 we can hang on this regime.  The rest is just nonsense.

The number of people here who clutched pearls over guys we didn't draft that ended up being awful is long and well-documented.  I am a member of that club so I know of what I speak.  It's very convenient to forget the misses and just keep bashing the Jets, but it doesn't change reality.  Half this board would have seen us draft Ekwonu over Sauce.  I liked London as WR1.  I'm glad Douglas was running the ship last year.  He's earned more respect than any GM we've had since we were the Titans.

 

[Green Ghost]

I blame the media for ranking these guys lower than where we picked them!

 

[Jet Nut]

8 hours ago, Beerfish said:

The fan and media Nostradamuses have been right more often than jets management over about the last 10 years.

Douglas and his regime have not garnered enough positive rep at this point to just assume they are making good choices.

Nothing worse than believing anyone has made better picks out of their basements than this staff.  
Pure dreamworld material

[Jet Nut]

13 hours ago, Beerfish said:

I'm not rankled at the positional ranking of will mcdonald I am rankled at who else we passed up who was there for us and the position and prospective usage of the player.  That is what rankled me.  I liked the Tippman pick. 

So who did you want that JD should have taken?  
Because that’s how message board Nostradamus’ work, complain about picks and if they don’t work out say “see”. 

[Hex]

8 hours ago, Beerfish said:

The fan and media Nostradamuses have been right more often than jets management over about the last 10 years.

Douglas and his regime have not garnered enough positive rep at this point to just assume they are making good choices.

What you're saying in this first paragraph is kind of true, but also kind of false.

These fan and media Nostradamuses do get many things right that the Jets have not right. But as a whole? I'll bet most people only get one or 2 things right that the Jets get wrong for every 10-20 issues. Just because they point out the times they are right doesn't mean they would do any better of a job. They're just guessing, and they happen to be right sometimes.

The Jets could make 7 out of 10 decisions right in the NFL, and it just isn't enough for success. They need 9-10 out of 10. Just because some guy in his mom's basement got 5/10 correct decisions and 3 of those were ones that the Jets should have done doesn't mean he's right more often than them.

 

As for your second paragraph, you're right. They haven't garnered enough positive rep to just assume they are making good choices. That doesn't mean that these draft grading pundits have any more credibility or really usefulness in terms of information. You'll find that half of the time, they end up being wrong anyways.

[BornJetsFan1983]

16 hours ago, LIJetsFan said:

IMHO the above just confirms what most here already thought.  Not a raving success and not a dismal failure.  Remains to be seen where it falls, average, above, or below.  Still not even close to complaining about JD.  2023 will turn out to be a weak NFL draft year IMHO.    

Most here thought for sure. Most gms and scouts thought it was incredible 

[BornJetsFan1983]

2 hours ago, Hex said:

What you're saying in this first paragraph is kind of true, but also kind of false.

These fan and media Nostradamuses do get many things right that the Jets have not right. But as a whole? I'll bet most people only get one or 2 things right that the Jets get wrong for every 10-20 issues. Just because they point out the times they are right doesn't mean they would do any better of a job. They're just guessing, and they happen to be right sometimes.

The Jets could make 7 out of 10 decisions right in the NFL, and it just isn't enough for success. They need 9-10 out of 10. Just because some guy in his mom's basement got 5/10 correct decisions and 3 of those were ones that the Jets should have done doesn't mean he's right more often than them.

 

As for your second paragraph, you're right. They haven't garnered enough positive rep to just assume they are making good choices. That doesn't mean that these draft grading pundits have any more credibility or really usefulness in terms of information. You'll find that half of the time, they end up being wrong anyways.

I think this is the year we win enough to be seen as good again. No matter what we do we are bad untill we win again. The eagles drafted they say as best an anyone could...yet they literally just did the same thing we did. Yet they are great and we suck.

It's dumb but will change. Last year started it.

[slats]

5 hours ago, nycdan said:

No, they really haven't.  And you can keep bringing up the last 10 years, but it's only the last 4 we can hang on this regime.  The rest is just nonsense.

The number of people here who clutched pearls over guys we didn't draft that ended up being awful is long and well-documented.  I am a member of that club so I know of what I speak.  It's very convenient to forget the misses and just keep bashing the Jets, but it doesn't change reality.  Half this board would have seen us draft Ekwonu over Sauce.  I liked London as WR1.  I'm glad Douglas was running the ship last year.  He's earned more respect than any GM we've had since we were the Titans.

 

Douglas had his first draft after a two win season. Three years later, the Jets are in the Super Bowl discussion. Yeah, Joe Douglas sucks. 

[32EBoozer]

14 hours ago, nycdan said:

The part that a lot of folks seem determined to not allow into their brains is that teams do not put the same value on players.  A player could be a star in one team's system and nearly useless in another's'.  There is no way to create a single Big Board that works for all picks

Good points. There is also the fact that there are several factors being considered in 9 minutes time… 

* How did the previous picks impact your board        
                                           

   * Of the remaining 1st round graded players, which player best meets positional, athletic, character and scheme specific values  

* Calls being made to assess trade back offers/value and determining if the players of interest will still be available after trade back                                          

* As seen on 1JD, have final discussions with scouts on how each player ranks among the 2-3 players being considered at #15                                                                      

* Consider positional depth, future FA, salary cap ramifications & choose.    

 * JD makes his selection, league office notified & player called

There are most likely a few players grouped together who are possibilities. WR, OT, DT, LB or true Wide-9 Edge.  Considering this draft was deep at DT, OL & WR not a pressing need they went with the player they thought they couldn’t risk missing out on by trading back & who would truly add that “bend & burst” to their pass rush. 
 

17 hours ago, sciond said:

Actually this draft will be a good measuring stick in the quality of the Jets scouting department.

 

15 hours ago, rangerous said:

I think Macdonald is the only real reach only because he was taken significantly higher than he should have been. But that was mainly because Douglas was stuck having to make the pick and it’s hard to say how the players picked after fifteen would’ve helped the team.  The thing too is that teams don’t always have an option to trade out and does it really matter if a guy like Tillman is also drafted a bit higher than thought if he fills an immediate need. I think this is where strict bpa drafting clashes with team need drafting.

 

15 hours ago, chirorob said:

Tippmann is all over the place, ranked from 64 to 67.

McDonald i do think they could have moved down and still gotten him.

 

[Scott Dierking]

18 hours ago, Warfish said:

So lets see:

Rd. 1 McDonald - Picked 15th: 
Avg. Rank:  29
Mean Rank: 25 

=REACH by 10-15 picks.  In the first round, that's a pretty huge reach tbqh.

Rd. 2 Tippmann - Picked 43rd
Avg. Rank:  53
Mean Rank:  57

=REACH by 10-14 picks.  

And so it goes for many of these picks this year.  A "JD knows better" draft where he picked guys others simply didn't rank or rate as highly.

Israel ay RB and Kuntz at TE the clear exceptions, both would be considered steals given their ranks vs. slot they were picked.

Ultimately, none of this ranking stuff matters, only how they play on the field, of course.

JD knows better than “draft experts” or JD knows better than his colleagues? 

There is a difference. We are comparing to supposed draft experts. But, that is not the game for NFL GM’s.  Their challenge is to maneuver within the realms of the reality—Real life draft that is conducted on a clock. Not a ranking of players based upon observation done in a vacuum. 

And that does not even factor team needs, which the Jets were in a position this year more so than any recent year—and that is acquiring players that supposedly will help immediately because the Jets are in a win now mode. That may have been why JD leaned on “more experienced” college players in this draft, because they need some contributions now. 

As you said, none of this ranking stuff matters now. The rubber meets the road on this draft in terms of record and contributions over the next 2 years. 

[Matt39]

8 hours ago, nycdan said:

No, they really haven't.  And you can keep bringing up the last 10 years, but it's only the last 4 we can hang on this regime.  The rest is just nonsense.

The number of people here who clutched pearls over guys we didn't draft that ended up being awful is long and well-documented.  I am a member of that club so I know of what I speak.  It's very convenient to forget the misses and just keep bashing the Jets, but it doesn't change reality.  Half this board would have seen us draft Ekwonu over Sauce.  I liked London as WR1.  I'm glad Douglas was running the ship last year.  He's earned more respect than any GM we've had since we were the Titans.

 

The process on Becton would have been interesting to see.

[Hal N of Provo]

8 hours ago, Jet Nut said:

Nothing worse than believing anyone has made better picks out of their basements than this staff.  
Pure dreamworld material

To be fair the basement draft and real people agreed last year.  

[Warfish]

5 hours ago, slats said:

Douglas had his first draft after a two win season. Three years later, the Jets are in the Super Bowl discussion. Yeah, Joe Douglas sucks. 

Personally, I'll be much more impressed with actually competing for a Super Bowl in Dec. rather than "being in the discussion" in May....

And lets be clear, we're "in the discussion" because of one man, Aaron Rodgers.  No Rodgers, no discussion.

[Warfish]

2 hours ago, Scott Dierking said:

JD knows better than “draft experts” or JD knows better than his colleagues? 

We don't know what his colleagues, i.e. other NFL GM's, think.

So yes, "knows better" was a reference to general consensus draft talent rankings.

And again, I'll stress, ranking mean absolutely nothing.  Only play ON the field matters.

For good and bad.  If McDonald is a real contributor, JD will get credit.  If Becton is hurt again, he'll take criticism.  

2 hours ago, Scott Dierking said:

As you said, none of this ranking stuff matters now. The rubber meets the road on this draft in terms of record and contributions over the next 2 years. 

JD is going into his "decision year" under Woody.  Owners almost never let GM's become "lame ducks" going into a final contract year without an extension.  So what happens this year will almost assuredly drive the decision for Woody if JD is extended pre-2024, or if he is let go.  At this point I'd have to presume he is extended.  

[nycdan]

On 5/28/2023 at 8:35 AM, Matt39 said:

The process on Becton would have been interesting to see.

Agreed.  He was a tantalizing prospect who, on the upside, could have been the next Jon Ogden.  But came with warning labels.  I would imagine there were voices on both sides of that debate.  Looking back, and looking at the better moments of his rookie season, I still don't fault them for making that pick, even with how it worked out.  Sometimes bad teams need to take big swings to get back in the game.

[Jet Nut]

23 hours ago, Hal N of Provo said:

To be fair the basement draft and real people agreed last year.  

Not really.  Where the agreement may have come was the first round picks, not the order.  There were many who wanted GWilson first, or London or any number of the top WRs first, there were a lot of Sauce first picks but there were just as many Keyvon Thibs first picks and plenty of Ekwonu or Evan Neal.  Which is fine but I know I went through each of them in my head too.  And there’s the problem with people thinking they’re better at it.  Naming a bunch of the top picks mocked and having one of the names you rattled off at one time or another isn’t the same thing as making a pick.  And any fool can put together a list of names for the first round, a larger number for the 2nd.