We are still going to the playoffs

[thshadow]

1 hour ago, The Voice of Reason said:

8.2% chance to make playoffs is not a statistic???

I can't believe you guys are arguing over semantics, but for the record, you're wrong.  Statistics analyzes and interprets existing data.  Like 0-2 is a statistic, or averaging -3 passing yards per attempt.  8.2% is a probability.

And my MIT professor would have argued that 8.2% isn't even a probability, because "the Jets making the playoffs this year" is a 1-time event, not something that can be repeated - but that's a more philosophical question.

 

 

[RoadFan]

10 minutes ago, 14 in Green said:

Dude... When are you going to stop acting like you were the only one who wanted LeVeon Bell? You were doing it before we got him, even though many of us were saying the same thing also. I know I was...

Just because we both wanted him doesn't make you or me a genius. It just makes us two of the people who thought he wasn't going to be a "shell of himself" or he wasn't going to "pack it in when he got paid".

We don't deserve any medals for that, so get over it.

Ouch.  I know there were others.   Several in fact.  I don't know.  Guess after spending so much time in every fraud agency thread, or where Bell was even a hint of the topic...  I just wanted some level of validation explaining why he was a must and that the cost was irrelevant because he was worth more than whatever contract he would get.

Character flaw perhaps?

 

[SAR I]

22 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

From 2016-present, we have the 2nd worst winning % in the NFL (.280) after the Browns (.180).  

For comparison, in that span, the Dolphins sit at .460 and the Bills are .480, and each have a playoff appearance.

From 1997 to 2011 the Jets were Top 5 in the AFC in playoff appearances and Top 10 in playoff wins.

And we were run just as badly then as we are now.

SAR I

[SAR I]

24 minutes ago, Joe W. Namath said:

Darnold couldnt complete a pass more then 3 yards and now he is going to dominate the league starting week 7?

Darnold had mononucleosis.  Muscle weakness, difficulty breathing, high fever, weight loss, enlarged spleen, extreme exhaustion.  On an artificial turf field nearing 100 degrees.  When he got back to the locker room he nearly collapsed.

And yet one stop in the 4th quarter and we win that game.

Darnold is far better than you give him credit for.  If healthy, watch out.

SAR I

[JimJaime]

26 minutes ago, The Voice of Reason said:

Come on... This is where statistics are insufferable... what does that have to do with this team and this coach and these players... You mean to tell me that because past players and coaches did something that, this has anything to do with this team?

Has to do with WHO we are facing as well.  I even said "Brady leads a 2 minute drive win the game". IMO Pats been there dont that and have proven time and again they win these games.. the Jets not so much. I could be wrong.. 

[Jetsfan80]

7 minutes ago, thshadow said:

And my MIT professor would have argued that 8.2% isn't even a probability, because "the Jets making the playoffs this year" is a 1-time event, not something that can be repeated - but that's a more philosophical question.

Could the "repeatable" aspect come from knowing what teams' chances are when starting 0-2 and when taking into account their schedule strength or other factors?  The Jets making the playoffs this year, with this roster and this schedule is certainly a 1-time event.  But since we have a lot of data on previous 16-game NFL seasons my guess is that gets incorporated into the probability figures, no?

[The Voice of Reason]

13 minutes ago, thshadow said:

I can't believe you guys are arguing over semantics, but for the record, you're wrong.  Statistics analyzes and interprets existing data.  Like 0-2 is a statistic, or averaging -3 passing yards per attempt.  8.2% is a probability.

And my MIT professor would have argued that 8.2% isn't even a probability, because "the Jets making the playoffs this year" is a 1-time event, not something that can be repeated - but that's a more philosophical question.

 

 

statistic

n.

A numerical piece of information.

I am not arguing if he is using statistics versus probability ... I am saying that data point is a statistic... different.. A statistic is any numerical piece of information... as defined above... 

[Joe W. Namath]

16 minutes ago, SAR I said:

Darnold had mononucleosis.  Muscle weakness, difficulty breathing, high fever, weight loss, enlarged spleen, extreme exhaustion.  On an artificial turf field nearing 100 degrees.  When he got back to the locker room he nearly collapsed.

And yet one stop in the 4th quarter and we win that game.

Darnold is far better than you give him credit for.  If healthy, watch out.

SAR I

I hope so.  Im not sold but we will see in a few short weeks.

[southparkcpa]

35 minutes ago, DoubleDown said:

Agreed in the context of a full roster. The depth is putrid.

However, in terms of starters, there are some high quality pieces. Darnold, Bell, Crowder, Herndon, Mosely, and Adams are all high talent pieces. The drop off from there is huge though.

The only chance the Jets had at the playoffs this year was staying relatively healthy and Darnold growing into a top 10 QB. That dream is pretty much dead already.

I was talking historically. I don’t deal in hypotheticals .. I leave that to my buddy @nyjunc . Would have and could have are his 2 favorite frases. ? I still look at 4 years of McCown and FITZ and stand on NO real management group would do that. That mentality is why we have sucked since basically 2012.  

[14 in Green]

25 minutes ago, SAR I said:

Darnold had mononucleosis.  Muscle weakness, difficulty breathing, high fever, weight loss, enlarged spleen, extreme exhaustion.  On an artificial turf field nearing 100 degrees.  When he got back to the locker room he nearly collapsed.

And yet one stop in the 4th quarter and we win that game.

Darnold is far better than you give him credit for.  If healthy, watch out.

SAR I

I love your schtick SAR, but jeez you're really laying it on thick here.

Did you watch "The Audie Murphy Story" last night on AMC? You must have, because you're trying to turn Sam into him.   

BTW props to those who remember the man's story without needing Google. ?

[Mastenpark]

4 hours ago, SAR I said:

The same team we were pumped about in August is still there. 

Mosely and Bell look better than advertised.  The pass rush and secondary generated 6 turnovers in the first 2 weeks.  Gase is keeping his cool and the team isn't imploding.  At 80% and a 102 fever Darnold had done enough to beat the Bills even without a kicker the whole game.

0-3 looks bad, but it's not the end.  This is a good team hitting epic-level adversity.  We move past that after the bye week.  It's Game 1 and we only have to go 9-4 from there.  Look at the schedule.  Ain't hard starting in late October.

SAR I

How is scoring 8 enough on offense against the Bills or any team in the NFL good enough. Obviously if it was you would have won the game. 
Who ever the OP is has lost their mind. Yes the Jets are not as bad as a 0-2 record suggest but the same wins you are counting on are the same wins the Bills are counting on as well with a better overall team to do it with. 

For example you just lost to the Browns. From what I saw from the Browns I feel more confident now about the Bills beating them than before you guys played them. 
 

You guys got stuck with some bad luck to being the season but the OP needs to pump the brakes until at least GASE can show he is more than a high school coach posing an NFL offensive genius.

 

[Plen T]

lmfao

[UntouchableCrew]

I'd have an easier time believing this team could make the playoffs if I felt like the team's biggest weaknesses were related to the injuries. But offensive line is by far the biggest problem with this team and the five guys playing are the five guys we thought would play. They just suck.

[JetFaninMI]

4 hours ago, The Voice of Reason said:

Says who? You? They have Bell one of the best backs in the league. Mosley one of the best LBs in the league... Maye and Adams.. and a Franchise QB with a 2nd year TE that showed promise... not to mention RA and Crowder... Is there OL below average... yes is there depth below average yes but has been getting better... So please tell me how they have the lowest level of talent in the league... 

I'll bite. Bell and Darnold on offense and Moseley on D. After that the rest are JAGS.Adams plays with a lot of heart but is just average. Maye has yet to play a full season. Anderson is a one trick pony who can't make a contested catch and Crowder always seems to be hurt in his career. Herndon is a question mark plain and simple and cannot be counted on until he proves it on the field. The rest suck plain and simple. A 5-11 or 6-10 team. Got it? Good.

[JustInFudge]

1 hour ago, RoadFan said:

Ouch.  I know there were others.   Several in fact.  I don't know.  Guess after spending so much time in every fraud agency thread, or where Bell was even a hint of the topic...  I just wanted some level of validation explaining why he was a must and that the cost was irrelevant because he was worth more than whatever contract he would get.

Character flaw perhaps?

 

I was more vocal about wanting Bell than you were but I remember you were and I'm proud of you.

 

[BROOKLYN JET]

3 hours ago, SAR I said:

Let me introduce Prince Abubu to the 2018 Seattle Seahawks, opened 0-2, were sitting at an awful 4-5 in November. 

Finished 10-6 and made the playoffs.

SAR I

Prince Abubu blows P.C. Richard's whistle twice as many times now.

[SAM SAM HE'S OUR MAN]

5 hours ago, johnnysd said:

Darnold will be back for Philadelphia and the defense will continue to get better.

Not unless he gets a new spleen .

[SAM SAM HE'S OUR MAN]

5 hours ago, SAR I said:

Yup.

We'll be 7-6 with 3 to go in December.  Beat the Steelers and Bills, hello wildcard.

The team we were excited about in August is the same here in September.  Just injured (they're coming back) and out of sync (OL will improve, K looks okay).  Oh, and no one thought our D was going to be this good, especially our secondary.

SAR I

[thshadow]

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Could the "repeatable" aspect come from knowing what teams' chances are when starting 0-2 and when taking into account their schedule strength or other factors?  The Jets making the playoffs this year, with this roster and this schedule is certainly a 1-time event.  But since we have a lot of data on previous 16-game NFL seasons my guess is that gets incorporated into the probability figures, no?

Lol, is this really what people want to talk about on a Jets board???  I guess it's better than a lot of other topics we discuss... 

He would say that weather forecasts aren't probabilities.  The chance that it rains tomorrow is either 0 or 1 - you just don't know which one it is yet (because "tomorrow" is a specific day).  Which I always thought was kindof lame, because what the weather forecaster really means is that this is the chance that it rains on day n + 1, given the approximate weather conditions of day n.

So yes, 8.2% is a probability, in the sense that what it really means is that "if I run whatever hokey simulator I made up, the Jets will make the playoffs 8.2% of the time".  And it's of course difficult to tell how accurate a simulator is - you would have to run it many times, make a histogram bucketed by prediction percent, and then compute correlation or RMSE or something like that between the prediction bucket and the actual observed value.

And related to that analysis, I can't believe how bad Mac's draft record is...

 

[SAM SAM HE'S OUR MAN]

4 hours ago, SAR I said:

The logic is that we win 1 of the tough 3 (@PHI, DAL, NE) and I just chose @PHI as the win.

Then we win 6 of the easy 7 (@JAX thru MIA) and I just chose @WAS as the loss.

Focus on the big picture.  The Jets need to go 9-4 after we lose this weekend.  If with Darnold and Mosely's return we are back up to speed, the Jets will be favored in 7 of those 9 contests.  Not insurmountable.

Stop trolling me with the troll accusations.  I'm dead serious.  You should be too.  If you had the Jets at 8-8 or better back in August you should be very excited about our D which is exceeding expectations and will go a long way in making up our early season deficit.  Darnold's return helps the OL.  Le'Veon hasn't missed a step.  Crowder is a beast.  Herndon a complete bonus.  The rest of the wildcard competition is mediocre to say the least.

SAR I

[RoadFan]

14 minutes ago, JiF said:

I was more vocal about wanting Bell than you were but I remember you were and I'm proud of you.

 

I know.  Went back through some of the Bell threads.  Saw who was naughty and who was nice.  You were definitely nice.

[TheClashFan]

The old days of local pro wrestling used to feature the occasional "Loser Leaves Town" match to settle longstanding feuds.  I'm fairly new to this board, but beginning to learn the personalities of the various regular posters: the optimists, the pessimists, the ranters and ravers, and so forth.

Perhaps "Loser leaves the Board" challenges could be set up, starting with this very thread. I, of course, would not partake in such macho festivities, but I would enjoy watching from a distance!

 

[SAR I]

45 minutes ago, Mastenpark said:

How is scoring 8 enough on offense against the Bills or any team in the NFL good enough. Obviously if it was you would have won the game. 

Doesn't matter how it happened, the Jets had a 16 point lead late in the game and the only reason the pathetic Bills got the W was because our QB1 had mononucleosis and our LB1 pulled a groin.  The Bills didn't win that game.  The Jets injuries lost it.

46 minutes ago, Mastenpark said:

Who ever the OP is has lost their mind. Yes the Jets are not as bad as a 0-2 record suggest but the same wins you are counting on are the same wins the Bills are counting on as well with a better overall team to do it with. 

The Jets have the better team.  Allen is a bad QB.  And we beat the Bills.  Just didn't get the W because of injuries and a freak illness to our QB.  And a kicker who should have been waiting tables in Utica.  The Bills should have killed the Jets, beaten us by 20 points.  It's embarrassing how they just narrowly eked out a win in those circumstances.

48 minutes ago, Mastenpark said:

For example you just lost to the Browns. From what I saw from the Browns I feel more confident now about the Bills beating them than before you guys played them. 

The Browns beat our JV by 20.  The Jets were missing 7 starters and lost their QB2 and had to go to their QB3 who wasn't even on the roster the day before.  Oh, so that's some big Brown's victory?  With all those big players?  LOL.  The Browns are about to go on a 5 game losing streak.  I worry about the Browns even less than I worry about the Bills.  Which is to say that I don't worry about either as wildcard challengers come January.

SAR I

 

[slimjasi]

2 hours ago, thshadow said:

I can't believe you guys are arguing over semantics, but for the record, you're wrong.  Statistics analyzes and interprets existing data.  Like 0-2 is a statistic, or averaging -3 passing yards per attempt.  8.2% is a probability.

And my MIT professor would have argued that 8.2% isn't even a probability, because "the Jets making the playoffs this year" is a 1-time event, not something that can be repeated - but that's a more philosophical question.

 

 

[NYJ1]

5 hours ago, johnnysd said:

We have laid a smelly turd in the first two games. Mono and lack of Darnold has led to some serious conservatism on offense, the OL is awful, and the defense is not great.

However, the defense showed improvement last week, Darnold will be back for Philadelphia and the defense will continue to get better.

I also believe that a healthy Darnold will show why he is a future Top 5 QB coming back

We will probably lose to NE this Sunday, but I expect there to be signs of improvement.

Philadelphia, Dallas and NE are a tough stretch. But I am not really that impressed with Dallas. 

Say we start 1-5.

Oh no, season over....but is it?

I realize that every team right now is penciling in the Jets game as a win for them, but the Jets did show some improvement Monday, and the Buffalo game was "won" before out epic fail.

I still believe we will be more like the TD machine we saw in preseason than our performances in first two games.

But here's the thing: After these 6 games our schedule is EPIC in its easiness We play likely only 1 team that will be in the playoffs, Baltimore and they are not as good as they look and might be on QB#3 by the time we play them.

I actually think we can start as good as 3-3 but even if we start 1-5, I think this team builds momentum wins 9 of last 10 and makes the playofffs.

Usually I would think the season is over but don't feel that way this time.

 

 

 

 

 

crack is a mind altering drug

[SAR I]

35 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

I'd have an easier time believing this team could make the playoffs if I felt like the team's biggest weaknesses were related to the injuries. But offensive line is by far the biggest problem with this team and the five guys playing are the five guys we thought would play. They just suck.

11 in the box overwhelms any offensive line.  Remember the every-other-year Pennington-is-hurt Jets teams?  2003, 2005, 2007?  We had Hall Of Fame talent on that OL and we couldn't open a hole or protect a QB with the entire opposing D trying to stop Curtis Martin because they didn't respect whatever bum was under center.

Once Darnold is back and flicking the ball around like he does the LB's and S's have to play it honest and hello Le'Veon Bell.  Chris Herndon adds a completely different dimension, he's the real replacement for Quincy Enunwa when he gets back.  All this takes the pressure off the overwhelmed OL.  Couldn't have been worse timing to have the OL try to gel after no work in the preseason and QB3 under center.

SAR I

[Creepy Lurker]

Is this thread real?

[Same Old]

5 hours ago, The Voice of Reason said:

Says who? You? They have Bell one of the best backs in the league. Mosley one of the best LBs in the league... Maye and Adams.. and a Franchise QB with a 2nd year TE that showed promise... not to mention RA and Crowder... Is there OL below average... yes is there depth below average yes but has been getting better... So please tell me how they have the lowest level of talent in the league... 

"Franchise QB"   Says who? What has Sam accomplished in the NFL to earn that title? 

   

[rangerous]

5 hours ago, BroadwayRay said:

The offensive line isn't good enough to send the team to the playoffs. Short of Bell, I'm also growing more skeptical of the Jets offensive skill players. Remember, this is still Macc;'s team for the most part. It's a product of bad drafting in general, horrible personnel evaluation and neglect of the offensive line. We have to wait and see if Douglas can fix this mess in the next couple of drafts.

imo there should be some concern with the skill players.  berrios and bellamy both aren't showing much, even as back ups.  thomas is hobbled.  that leaves anderson, crowder, bell, te by lottery, and montgomery.  they probably should've kept burnett.  at least he showed a willingness to play every down.  with this group they can expect lots of 8 men in the box defenses.

[SOJ]

I had to chuckle when I read some of the posts that said the team O looked better?  I say the D is playing well and seems better coached.  The predictions of playoffs is ridiculous.. this offensive team as presently constituted is dysfunctional - OL wrong calls free run to QB,  OL blocking when they do is piss poor, Except for Robby and Cowder the rest of the WR and TE are useless,  the personnel grouping are a joke and the lack of in game adjustments resembles TB's teams.   

Now what did I miss?  Oh yea,  we will be 0-6 soon.  Think high draft picks fellows cause the PO are delusional unless this teams turns into the 69 jets.  

[Jet Life]

No playoffs with this OL

[SAR I]

1 hour ago, Same Old said:

"Franchise QB"   Says who?

The same QB experts who during the first two seasons of the Mark Sanchez era said he sucked are now in the first two seasons praising Sam Darnold to the heavens.

That's who.

SAR I

[Peace Frog]

1 hour ago, Same Old said:

"Franchise QB"   Says who? What has Sam accomplished in the NFL to earn that title? 

   

Are you serious?

Have you seen the tools this guy has? His arm talent, accuracy, touch, mobility, playmsking ability, command of the offense, work ethic, leadership?

If you don’t see this, even in his formative stages, you need to hop to another team. 

He has everything you want in a FQB other than an offensive line. Even with the dearth of weapons, you give him some antibiotics and another 2 seconds and we have a superstar QB. 

Step off dude. 

[Peace Frog]

5 minutes ago, SAR I said:

The same QB experts who during the first two seasons of the Mark Sanchez era said he sucked are now in the first two seasons praising Sam Darnold to the heavens.

That's who.

SAR I

We have the worst fans. Pathetic. 

[Mastenpark]

2 hours ago, SAR I said:

Doesn't matter how it happened, the Jets had a 16 point lead late in the game and the only reason the pathetic Bills got the W was because our QB1 had mononucleosis and our LB1 pulled a groin.  The Bills didn't win that game.  The Jets injuries lost it.

The Jets have the better team.  Allen is a bad QB.  And we beat the Bills.  Just didn't get the W because of injuries and a freak illness to our QB.  And a kicker who should have been waiting tables in Utica.  The Bills should have killed the Jets, beaten us by 20 points.  It's embarrassing how they just narrowly eked out a win in those circumstances.

The Browns beat our JV by 20.  The Jets were missing 7 starters and lost their QB2 and had to go to their QB3 who wasn't even on the roster the day before.  Oh, so that's some big Brown's victory?  With all those big players?  LOL.  The Browns are about to go on a 5 game losing streak.  I worry about the Browns even less than I worry about the Bills.  Which is to say that I don't worry about either as wildcard challengers come January.

SAR I

 

Forum ya need to come get your boy off the Meds. 

I will respond none the less. What really makes you feel that the Jets are better than the BIlls. Seriously. Our defense is better than yours. Pretty much at all positions and where you may be better it’s not by a lot. 

Offense overall is about the same but Buffalo is trending up. Better OL , Receivers, and better playmaking QB overall.( Rushing /Passing). Our QB has a winning record in the league and is getting better by the game. You have a better TE, and Running back but we got some young talent ready to be heard from at those positions.

This year our special teams is better than yours (Kicker, Return game. ( Thanks for Andre Roberts) Punt game I’ll give you guys the slight advantage. 

I would say the biggest advantage that we have is at the head coach position. Sean McDermott is hand down a better head coach the Adam Gase. It bears it out in their head to head where Sean McDermott is 4-1 against him. It also bears it out in our team culture where the Bills players will run through a wall for McDermott. 

As far wins I’m going to ask you one question. We for the most part play the same teams. 
What team on your schedule that we play as well can you beat that the Bills can’t beat as well? I’ll wait for your response.

So your “we going to get hot in the 2nd half of the season” where as it may be true is not going to help if your already 6 games back and we own the head to head tie breaker at least at this point so far. 

It’s delusional fans like you SAR that make me hate the Jets. Not because you love your team, cause we all do. The problem is that you cannot look at your team and your rivals objectively. All I hear from the Bills/Jets game from you as excuses on why the Jets lost. Have you even though how the game could have turned out if you didnt get even half those breaks.

If your team was soooo much better than the Bills it would not have came down to a miss kick and a MLB injury especially being gift wrapped a safety, a pick 6, and 4 turnovers and they Jets still found a way to lose because your defense couldn’t stop a nose bleed especially in the 4th qrt. That shows a lack of depth and coaching on both sides of the ball for the Jets. 

I hope you guys at least cover the 20+ spread this week that you guys are expected to lose by this week. Good Luck !