Justin Herbert

[Jetsfan80]

18 minutes ago, JiF said:

Why do you constantly try to spin and paint me in a light that is inaccurate when you're defeated?  You remind me of someone... 

Go type what I read and respond to it.  I acknowledged it's useful and said it should not be used as a determining factor because it's highly flawed.  I know you cant defend this so "I'm not worth your time" (liar, you love me) because I'm right but I'll simply remind you of the highlights; The flaw in their formula has nothing to do with math it's completely subjective malarkey that they use to compile their "data", they are not telling you anything you didnt already know ie; Burrow is the #1 prospect, there isnt a competitive tool to compare this is better than anything else out there and it ultimately is 50/50 on when they are right and wrong and I dont know how you can put any stock into something with those types of results.

 

You act like what they're putting out there is conventional wisdom.  They sniffed out many of the supposedly "can't miss" prospects as being likely busts, and certainly had higher scores for others that were risky bets. 

If everyone "already knew" about these prospects, then the scouts, analysts, front office execs and JN experts wouldn't get this stuff wrong at a higher rate than QBASE.  

No one knew Mahomes would be what he was, yet QBASE gave him the highest score from the 2017 QB Class.  That stands for something, considering that no Air Raid QB had ever succeeded in the pros prior.  

[BornJetsFan1983]

On 10/24/2020 at 12:56 PM, Jetsfan80 said:

In 4 career starts to date, Justin Herbert has two 300+ yard games and two 3+ TD games.

In 30 career starts to date, Sam Darnold has four 300+ yard games and three 3+ TD games.

The Chargers are a bad team (1-4).  

So what gives?

idk but this got me like 45 in fantasy yeaterday 

[UntouchableCrew]

I thought Herbert was going to be a huge bust. My QB predictions since 2018 have been awful.

[JustInFudge]

37 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

You act like what they're putting out there is conventional wisdom.  They sniffed out many of the supposedly "can't miss" prospects as being likely busts, and certainly had higher scores for others that were risky bets. 

If everyone "already knew" about these prospects, then the scouts, analysts, front office execs and JN experts wouldn't get this stuff wrong at a higher rate than QBASE.  

No one knew Mahomes would be what he was, yet QBASE gave him the highest score from the 2017 QB Class.  That stands for something, considering that no Air Raid QB had ever succeeded in the pros prior.  

Meh, not going to repeat the same argument points over again, I've shredded this before too.

❤️

[Scott Dierking]

21 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

I thought Herbert was going to be a huge bust. My QB predictions since 2018 have been awful.

The kid has an absolute cannon for an arm. Seems to be tough as nails. By no means is he a polished finish yet, but intriguing. 

[UntouchableCrew]

24 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

The kid has an absolute cannon for an arm. Seems to be tough as nails. By no means is he a polished finish yet, but intriguing. 

I just hated him at Oregon. Thought he was one of those "has all the tools but has no instincts" type guys. He looks worlds better in the NFL that he did in college, IMO.

[PS17]

35 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

I just hated him at Oregon. Thought he was one of those "has all the tools but has no instincts" type guys. He looks worlds better in the NFL that he did in college, IMO.

Josh Allen all over again.

[Jetsfan80]

32 minutes ago, PS17 said:

Josh Allen all over again.

Eh.  Herbert had a 689 QBASE score.  Josh Allen's was -83. 

Allen completed just 56 % of his throws in college.  He also was pretty awful his first 2 NFL seasons.  Herbert started 43 games in school and completed 64 % of his throws.

Not the same prospect really, at all.  Allen was a lot closer to a Christian Hackenberg who could run than he was to Herbert.

[Ghost420]

4 hours ago, UntouchableCrew said:

I thought Herbert was going to be a huge bust. My QB predictions since 2018 have been awful.

I haven't been right about a QB since Russell Wilson went in the 4th round and I cried Jets didnt take him.

[predator_05]

On 10/26/2020 at 6:17 PM, ryu79 said:

Maybe he was held back by never being under center or having limited control at Oregon. Either way, good for him.

 

CBS did an interesting article on this.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/chargers-unleash-justin-herbert-heres-why-rookie-qb-has-looked-better-in-the-nfl-than-he-did-at-oregon/

To summarize, the Chargers trust him to make big plays and throw it downfield, especially on early downs. He's had good protection, clean pockets. He was limited by Oregon's play calling his senior year, they used him more as a game-manager. 

[ryu79]

2 hours ago, predator_05 said:

 

CBS did an interesting article on this.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/chargers-unleash-justin-herbert-heres-why-rookie-qb-has-looked-better-in-the-nfl-than-he-did-at-oregon/

To summarize, the Chargers trust him to make big plays and throw it downfield, especially on early downs. He's had good protection, clean pockets. He was limited by Oregon's play calling his senior year, they used him more as a game-manager. 

Cool! Thanks for sharing that.

[Jetsfan80]

Update:

 

In 7 career starts to date, Justin Herbert has four 300+ yard games and four 3+ TD games.

In 32 career starts to date, Sam Darnold has four 300+ yard games and three 3+ TD games.

 

The Chargers are a bad team (2-6).  

 

Also, Jake Luton (2020 6th round pick) threw for 304 yards today in his career debut, for a 1-7 team, throwing to the likes of Chris Conley.  

[pdxgreen]

7 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Update:

 

In 7 career starts to date, Justin Herbert has four 300+ yard games and four 3+ TD games.

In 32 career starts to date, Sam Darnold has four 300+ yard games and three 3+ TD games.

 

The Chargers are a bad team (2-6).  

 

Also, Jake Luton (2020 6th round pick) threw for 304 yards today in his career debut, for a 1-7 team, throwing to the likes of Chris Conley.  

Oregon QB curse my ass!  And how many USC QB threads do I have to read about?  Want to complain about Pac-12 QBs... the bad ones don't come from this state!

[Jet_Engine1]

13 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Update:

 

In 7 career starts to date, Justin Herbert has four 300+ yard games and four 3+ TD games.

In 32 career starts to date, Sam Darnold has four 300+ yard games and three 3+ TD games.

 

The Chargers are a bad team (2-6).  

 

Also, Jake Luton (2020 6th round pick) threw for 304 yards today in his career debut, for a 1-7 team, throwing to the likes of Chris Conley.  

And the Cowboys (a bad team this year) 4th String QB is putting up a fight vs the Steelers. 

 

Darnold is crap.

[jetstream23]

After seeing Herbert along with guys like Watson, Mahomes, Lamar and even Josh Allen to a degree....who really needs the #1 pick?  None of those guys were taken Top 5.  Our last GM was a moron and passed on multiple potential franchise QBs.  If JD is better then he'll find his guy whether the Jets pick first or not, right?

[Beerfish]

Just now, jetstream23 said:

After seeing Herbert along with guys like Watson, Mahomes, Lamar and even Josh Allen to a degree....who really needs the #1 pick?  None of those guys were taken Top 5.  Our last GM was a moron and passed on multiple potential franchise QBs.  If JD is better then he'll find his guy whether the Jets pick first or not, right?

Agreed.

[slimjasi]

1 minute ago, jetstream23 said:

After seeing Herbert along with guys like Watson, Mahomes, Lamar and even Josh Allen to a degree....who really needs the #1 pick?  None of those guys were taken Top 5.  Our last GM was a moron and passed on multiple potential franchise QBs.  If JD is better then he'll find his guy whether the Jets pick first or not, right?

Absolutely. 
 

but it’s nice to need a QB when a guy like Lawrence is around 

[Jetsfan80]

15 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

After seeing Herbert along with guys like Watson, Mahomes, Lamar and even Josh Allen to a degree....who really needs the #1 pick?  None of those guys were taken Top 5.  Our last GM was a moron and passed on multiple potential franchise QBs.  If JD is better then he'll find his guy whether the Jets pick first or not, right?

Joe Burrow and Kyler Murray say hi!

[Lith]

18 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

After seeing Herbert along with guys like Watson, Mahomes, Lamar and even Josh Allen to a degree....who really needs the #1 pick?  None of those guys were taken Top 5.  Our last GM was a moron and passed on multiple potential franchise QBs.  If JD is better then he'll find his guy whether the Jets pick first or not, right?

You don't need the #1 pick to get a franchise QB.  But on the other hand, if you have the #1 pick, tht is not a reason to pass on a potential franchise QB either.

[PS17]

2 minutes ago, Lith said:

You don't need the #1 pick to get a franchise QB.  But on the other hand, if you have the #1 pick, tht is not a reason to pass on a potential franchise QB either.

Where do you currently stand on Fields vs Lawrence? 

[Lith]

15 minutes ago, PS17 said:

Where do you currently stand on Fields vs Lawrence? 

I am not going to call either guy a generational talent, as I think that term is vastly overused.  Always scares me a little bit to project how  prospect will adjust to NFL, especially when he has so many games against badly overmatched defenses.  Both guys are in that situation.  Clean pockets, huge windows to throw to, playmakers who outclass the defenders they are going against.  How guys ike that will adjust to constand pressure and tight windows of NFL make me nervous.

If I had to choose today, I am taking Lawrence, but I see both guys as pretty close. And not all the votes have been counted yet.

[PS17]

27 minutes ago, Lith said:

I am not going to call either guy a generational talent, as I think that term is vastly overused.  Always scares me a little bit to project how  prospect will adjust to NFL, especially when he has so many games against badly overmatched defenses.  Both guys are in that situation.  Clean pockets, huge windows to throw to, playmakers who outclass the defenders they are going against.  How guys ike that will adjust to constand pressure and tight windows of NFL make me nervous.

If I had to choose today, I am taking Lawrence, but I see both guys as pretty close. And not all the votes have been counted yet.

I agree. And “generational” has become the most annoying word in sports. 

[pdxgreen]

3 minutes ago, PS17 said:

I agree. And “generational” has become the most annoying word in sports. 

Unless your names Michael Jordan, LeBron James, Pele, Diego Maradona, Messi or Wayne Gretzky. You're not generational.  

[PS17]

Just now, pdxgreen said:

Unless your names Michael Jordan, LeBron James, Pele, Diego Maradona, Messi or Wayne Gretzky. You're not generational.  

Thank you. The word should be reserved for a once-every-20-years player. Now somehow every year there are generational talents in the NFL draft. 

[MichaelScott]

1 hour ago, jetstream23 said:

After seeing Herbert along with guys like Watson, Mahomes, Lamar and even Josh Allen to a degree....who really needs the #1 pick?  None of those guys were taken Top 5.  Our last GM was a moron and passed on multiple potential franchise QBs.  If JD is better then he'll find his guy whether the Jets pick first or not, right?

Absolutely, couldn't agree more! I just posted this in the the thread about Jax projected to get the 1st overall:

 

Maybe Fields wouldnt be a bad thing?

I dont know anything about Lawrence but I feel like Scouts/Media/Experts have been piss poor at projecting QBs. When was the last time the "can't miss" "safest" or "generational" QB prospect actually ended up being really good, letalone the best QB in that draft?

Mariota? Winston? Mayfield? Darnold? Rosen? Trubisky? Goff? Wentz? 

Watson went 12. Mahomes 11. Jackson was what, 32? 

I feel like the NFL can't scout/project college QBs for SH*T these days. I'll admit I dont know anything about Lawrence but I'm too jaded to get ANY amount of QB hype credence anymore. I'm not going to cry over 2nd overall, If Douglas wants a QB, I dont have any trust that Fields wont be better. Hell, if history is any indicator, the FQB of the class wont be in the top 10. 

[jetstream23]

1 hour ago, Lith said:

You don't need the #1 pick to get a franchise QB.  But on the other hand, if you have the #1 pick, tht is not a reason to pass on a potential franchise QB either.

Still need to make the right pick.  The Jets took Darnold and left Lamar and Josh Allen on the board.  Most people think that was a bad move.

This will be JD's legacy in April 2021.

[Wonderboy]

4 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Joe Burrow and Kyler Murray say hi!

I’d be happy with either Trevor, Fields or Lance. All have excellent skill set with Lance actually being the more athletic but also the more raw prospect.  Regardless, JD will be picking a QB with his first pick. 

[SayNoToDMC]

On 10/24/2020 at 3:56 PM, Jetsfan80 said:

In 4 career starts to date, Justin Herbert has two 300+ yard games and two 3+ TD games.

In 30 career starts to date, Sam Darnold has four 300+ yard games and three 3+ TD games.

The Chargers are a bad team (1-4).  

So what gives?

Not going to lie. I was wrong.

 

I though he wouldn't translate from college. Mainly from what I watched here on draft study with YouTube videos.. I bought up so many of his cards after the first couple weeks of watching him in the NFL. It's in my post history. I was so dumb I thought he was playing us that week so bought them up. These cards are now golden. Still going pretty cheap. If you want some. He loot pretty legit on a garbage team. 

[predator_05]

6 hours ago, MichaelScott said:

Absolutely, couldn't agree more! I just posted this in the the thread about Jax projected to get the 1st overall:

 

Maybe Fields wouldnt be a bad thing?

I dont know anything about Lawrence but I feel like Scouts/Media/Experts have been piss poor at projecting QBs. When was the last time the "can't miss" "safest" or "generational" QB prospect actually ended up being really good, letalone the best QB in that draft?

Mariota? Winston? Mayfield? Darnold? Rosen? Trubisky? Goff? Wentz? 

Watson went 12. Mahomes 11. Jackson was what, 32? 

I feel like the NFL can't scout/project college QBs for SH*T these days. I'll admit I dont know anything about Lawrence but I'm too jaded to get ANY amount of QB hype credence anymore. I'm not going to cry over 2nd overall, If Douglas wants a QB, I dont have any trust that Fields wont be better. Hell, if history is any indicator, the FQB of the class wont be in the top 10. 

 

to suggest that other QBs might be better isn't a knock on Lawrence. 

 

Trey Lance and Zach Wilson having better pro careers than Lawrence is not unthinkable.

Trading down from 1.01 (or not taking QB there) makes a lot of sense. But i doubt the front office is bold enough to do this. 

[Jetster]

Let's pray that both Lawrence & Fields have Franchise QB careers. Jets are going to be #1 or #2 in the 2021 draft. 

[TheNuuFaaolaExperience]

In Darnold's defense, he would probably have 25 more yards per game with Keenan Allen. 

[Doggin94it]

On 10/24/2020 at 3:59 PM, Jetsfan80 said:

Note that Herbert's 300+ yard games and 3+ TD games came at different times.

So in all 4 starts to begin his career he has either thrown for 300+ yards OR tossed 3+ TD passes.

Too bad you can't evaluate QB's on bad teams though.  A real shame, the Chargers will never know what they have.

The Chargers are a bad team with NFL caliber WRs

[JustInFudge]

13 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Update:

 

In 7 career starts to date, Justin Herbert has four 300+ yard games and four 3+ TD games.

In 32 career starts to date, Sam Darnold has four 300+ yard games and three 3+ TD games.

 

The Chargers are a bad team (2-6).  

 

Also, Jake Luton (2020 6th round pick) threw for 304 yards today in his career debut, for a 1-7 team, throwing to the likes of Chris Conley.  

lol Darnold is ******* terrible but I would like to add, anyone who thinks Lawrence does what Herbert is doing entering the league needs their head checked....crazy that people didnt call Herbert a generational talent, they are the same dude, Herbert is just a much much much better passer.   He just doesnt have beautiful blonde hair and perfect skin like TL.

And while Luton certainly makes you feel silly watching the Jets, he's got a little more than Chris Conley to throw to, that's just a bad troll job.  Chark, 2nd RD pick is a baller, Eifert was once an elite TE, Shenault is a 1st rounder and James Robinson is good. The better troll job would be to call out how the Jets wont play a 4th round pick but the Jags just played a 6th rounder, again, and they're still able to run a modern day offense..  That's the real story here, not the misrepresentation of what Luton has around him.

All that said, yes, Darnold is a mega bust who sucks donkey dick and Adam Gase is a total ******* moron.

[NorthCoastJetsFan]

9 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

Still need to make the right pick.  The Jets took Darnold and left Lamar and Josh Allen on the board.  Most people think that was a bad move.

This will be JD's legacy in April 2021.

 

Now they think it's a bad move. At the time, Lamar was looked at as only a runner without accuracy, and Allen was just a guy with a strong arm and a strong body.

Drafting QBs is the biggest crapshoot of the draft. If the team does not have the right coach, a decent OL, and at least one better than average receiver, all bets are off.

This is why I would be very cautious about drafting a QB with the #1 pick with the Jets scenario. There are just too many holes to fill. In addition, while it used to be that excellent NFL QBs were only available infrequently, they now seem to be available every year.

[sec101row23]

Far more important than whoever JD picks at QB, is the following 8 draft picks that will follow and what players he signs prior to the draft and the coach he decides to hire.