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Why Panthers fans shouldn't be optimistic that Sam Darnold's problems are fixable


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12 minutes ago, doitny said:

i know sam is gone, but i thought this was interesting. this guy makes good points and good stats to say maybe it was sam and that maybe Adam Gase wasnt the worst coach ever. which makes me wonder how different Gase will be looked at if Sam is still the worst QB in the league next year.

It's certainly very plausible that Darnold isn't any good.

It was already 100% confirmed that Gase wasn't any good with CHI and MIA before coming here. The only success Gase has ever had in the league is when he had a GOAT QB running his own offense and faking credit to Gase. 

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10 minutes ago, More Cowbell said:

So you really expect anyone except the biggest Sam haters who will probably frame it and hang it in the bathroom to read while they pleasure themselves to actually read that?

Pointing Up Morgan Freeman GIF by MOODMAN - Find & Share on GIPHY

:) 

 

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2 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

Ah so Sam Darnold ruined the great offensive coach adam gase and he also ruined the jets oline and WR and TE's

Gotcha.

You may need to read the whole thing again

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2 minutes ago, Tranquilo said:

You may need to read the whole thing again

At least a half dozen times he forgives adam  gase and indicates in a passive aggressive way that Gase is fine and that it was darnolds fault, i mean darnold was not only bad in a clean pocket but also 'boring'  Stellar commentary

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3 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

At least a half dozen times he forgives adam  gase and indicates in a passive aggressive way that Gase is fine and that it was darnolds fault, i mean darnold was not only bad in a clean pocket but also 'boring'  Stellar commentary

Nah man. He said Gase was bad but not THAT bad and the statistical support bears that out.

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Just saying stuff we've been saying all year on here. He doesn't make any plays from the pocket, he's at his best with the backyard football scramble, and even then its 50/50 if its an awesome TD or INT. That won't be enough unless he is consistently good in the pocket, which he hasn't shown any propensity to do even going back to USC.

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Genoldchez share the same traits on the field.  Inaccurate, poor decisions, panic, turnover-prone. 

Guess who's who? plus one mystery special guest...

comp% rate  turnovers/game
56.6      73.2      1.8
57.8      72.9      1.8
59.8      78.6      1.6
60.1      74.4      1.6

 

 

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25 minutes ago, Xtina said:

Salve. 
 

does Gase have a job yet?

He’s so incompetent and ineffective at his job that he should really look into a career in politics. 

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38 minutes ago, BroadwayRay said:

This article is a voice of reason, but it's still going to bounce off the heads of the Darnold truthers, who will be declaring that Sam coulda been somebody and shaking their first at Adam Gase to their dying days.

How is ol' Gase doing these days?

Surely someone in the NFL saw it like you do and hired him immediately to Head Coach their team, right?

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5 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

 

You guys are soooo emotionally invested in Sam. I loved him too and I was legitimately sad when the trade went down because the first thing I thought about was how excited I was on draft night of 2018. But the data and analysis presented in the article speaks for itself. You can't blame Panthers fans for being concerned. 

That's not to say that Sam can't get better and take a big step forward next year, but you aren't a "hater" because you acknowledge the reality of how bad Sam has been in the NFL. 

This. Apparently, in addition to Steven Ruiz, numbers and statistics are also huge Sam Darnold haters. 

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1 hour ago, doitny said:

i know sam is gone, but i thought this was interesting. this guy makes good points and good stats to say maybe it was sam and that maybe Adam Gase wasnt the worst coach ever. which makes me wonder how different Gase will be looked at if Sam is still the worst QB in the league next year.

Adam Gase is a bad coach.  Sam Darnold is a bad QB.  Both statements can be true.  Gase has already failed in two tries.  Now, Sam gets a chance to redeem himself with a second chance.  I am skeptical that he can do it, but time will tell.

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7 minutes ago, Warfish said:

How is ol' Gase doing these days?

He sold his home in Chatham at the end of March 2021 for $3.2 million so I'm guessing he's no longer in the area and left with a bunch of Woody's money. 

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7 minutes ago, Warfish said:

How is ol' Gase doing these days?

Surely someone in the NFL saw it like you do and hired him immediately to Head Coach their team, right?

Gase is a horrible coach. But Sam is also a bad quarterback. And unless you can present some statistical support (like the article) to say otherwise, then it's a fact.

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1 hour ago, doitny said:

i know sam is gone, but i thought this was interesting. this guy makes good points and good stats to say maybe it was sam and that maybe Adam Gase wasnt the worst coach ever. which makes me wonder how different Gase will be looked at if Sam is still the worst QB in the league next year.

Why Panthers fans shouldn't be optimistic that Sam Darnold's problems are fixable (msn.com)

I’ve had time to sleep on it. It’s been nearly 48 hours since Sam Darnold officially became a member of the Carolina Panthers and, though I’ve calmed down a bit, I still don’t feel much better about the move.

 

It was a short-sighted move that speaks to the impatience from both ownership and the front office that has held the franchise back from committing to a sorely needed rebuild. I explained here why I disagreed with both the move itself and the timing of it.

Whatever.

None of that matters now. The trade has been made so the only thing Panthers fans can do is look forward and hope that 1) this coaching staff can resurrect a once-promising career and 2) this is one of those instances of bad process leading to good results.

I mean, it is possible. Darnold is a talented player and he was drafted third overall for a reason. He’s capable of doing stuff like this…

 

A year ago, I warned Jets fans about falling for those flashes, and now here I am a year later trying to offer one up as a potential sign of hope. But, really, they are all you have to hold onto at this point. Whether you’re analyzing Darnold’s three years in the NFL through a qualitative or quantitative lens, it’s not pretty.

 

When watching his film from the 2020 season, it’s hard to see much of a difference between it and his 2019 film … or his 2018 film … or his college film. You get the point. Of course, it’s hard to ignore Adam Gase’s offense and the Jets’ lackluster supporting cast making things actively harder for the young quarterback, but the reverse is true, too. Darnold isn’t doing his part, either.

That becomes glaringly obvious when you look at metrics designed to isolate his play. Sports Info Solutions’ proprietary Points Earned metric, which is based on the Expected Points Added model, ranked Darnold as the second-worst quarterback in the league in 2020. Only Carson Wentz was worse, while guys like Gardner Minshew, Drew Lock, and Mitchell Trubisky were all better. Wentz and Darnold, both of whom were traded this offseason, were on their own island of awfulness. Nick Foles finished just ahead of them but the gap between him and those two was SIGNIFICANT…

chart, histogram

%7B© Provided by For The Win

It gets worse. The Jets’ offensive line was awful, right? Well, Darnold was abysmal even in a clean pocket. He graded out as the 32nd-ranked quarterback when kept clean, according to Pro Football Focus. And his Big-time Throw rate was near the bottom of the league at 1.7 percent. So he wasn’t just bad when given a clean pocket, he was boring.

That’s one thing that stands out when watching Darnold’s film. He’s not really the gunslinger he’s made out to be. There’s a reason why his highlights are always out-of-structure: In structure, he’s terribly conservative. Gase was criticized for his painfully horizontal offense, but have we considered the possibility that it was a result of Darnold’s own limitations as a passer? Those short throws were the only ones he was actually capable of making at an above-average rate…

chart

%7B© Provided by For The Win

via Pro Football Focus’ 2021 QB Annual

Even the most ardent Darnold skeptics can’t deny it: The man can throw a swing pass.

Panthers fans gave up on Teddy Bridgewater because of his tendency to throw short but it’s not like Darnold was significantly more aggressive. Bridgewater’s average throw traveled 7.3 yards past the line of scrimmage, according to RBSDM.com. Darnold’s aDOT was 7.8. His average throw traveled 1.1 yards short of the sticks while Bridgewater was at 1.6. We can’t blame the Jets offense for that either. Joe Flacco averaged 11 air yards per pass attempt and his average throw traveled 2.2 yards PAST the sticks.

Flacco wasn’t just more aggressive. He was better, which really throws a wrench into the whole “Gase ruined Darnold” argument. The former Super Bowl MVP outperformed his younger counterpart in every conceivable measure, including PFF grade, EPA and QBR. Even if you throw away the first half of Darnold’s 2020 campaign, when the Jets’ supporting cast was banged up, that remains true. Flacco’s superior performance kills any argument claiming that Darnold’s league-worst production was the direct result of a poor support system. We can ask “how many quarterbacks would succeed in such a situation?” but we can just as easily ask “how many quarterbacks would have performed better?” We have at least one answer to that question: A 35-year-old Joe Flacco.

The environment in which a quarterback play is going to affect all of the metrics laid out here, but I think we’ve overstated just how much of an influence Gase’s play-calling could have reasonably had on Darnold’s performance. We’ve seen Gase get decent results out of Jay Cutler and Ryan Tannehill. Peyton Manning had one of his better years with Gase calling suggesting plays. His reputation as a QB killer is based wholly on Tannehill breaking out in a friendly environment in Tennessee and Darnold being awful … and the former was much better during his time playing under Gase.

 

 

Gase’s scheme can’t be that bad. Defenses weren’t just gloving up every route he called. They can’t defend everything! Cutler, Tannehill and even a late-career Flacco managed to be much better in the same offense. So even if you believe Darnold was a victim of Gase’s schematic buffoonery, that still says something about his inability to find second or third options consistently, which is one of the hallmarks of good quarterback play. Making good decisions and throwing accurately are two other big ones and both have been problems for Darnold going back to his time in college. In many respects, Darnold is still that same prospect he was coming out of USC. Only he’s a few years older and a bit more expensive.

I guess you can say Gase didn’t do a good job of developing him (probably true) but why do we think Joe Brady will do any better? Teddy Bridgewater was Teddy Bridgewater last year. If he didn’t get any boost from this coaching staff, why do we assume Darnold will? Brady has a reputation for elevating quarterbacks, but he was only the passing coordinator at LSU when a 23-year-old Joe Burrow led the Tigers to a national championship (Burrow is actually older than Darnold.)

This is not what Panthers fans want to read. I know this. I wish I could be more optimistic but it’s just really hard to do so without dusting off pre-draft scouting reports from three years ago or posting those thirst-trap highlights that Darnold produces every couple of games.

After escaping Gase and the Jets, Darnold will almost certainly be better than he has been. But all of the evidence suggests that he will almost certainly not be good enough to be a long-term answer in Carolina.

I suppose the bigger kick in the head will be if one of the top 5 QBs like Fields even drops down to #8, it will be an issue for the Panthers. If you want to get the most out of Darnold that pick has to be a non-QB pick and probably BAP on O either on the OL or skill position player WR/TE/RB. If Panthers spend it on say Fields it doesn't help either QB as one or the other needs that #8 overall resource spent on O, or if the BAP is a CB or Edge rusher that can help the D keep games from to high of scoring which in the end helps the O. As you mentioned about timing. They were better suited making this trade after they picked 8th in the draft in case they could have gotten a very good QB prospect there, and then if not could have done a similar deal at that point with the Jets. 

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49 minutes ago, Xtina said:

Salve. 
 

does Gase have a job yet?

No but he's still getting paid by the Jets right now.  Todd Bowles has a job, and has a Super Bowl ring as well.  Darnold gets $18M to suck for someone else.  We get a 2, 4, and 6.  Good deals all around. 

The above kind of reads like a "where are they now" just before the end credits of a bad movie...

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20 minutes ago, Warfish said:

How is ol' Gase doing these days?

Surely someone in the NFL saw it like you do and hired him immediately to Head Coach their team, right?

Why does he need to look for work?  He's getting paid by the Jets right now NOT to coach.  Think he had 2-3 years left on his deal.  If I'm Gase I take my money and head to whatever island of choice he prefers for a year, then return to coaching.  

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18 minutes ago, Warfish said:

How is ol' Gase doing these days?

Surely someone in the NFL saw it like you do and hired him immediately to Head Coach their team, right?

You really do enjoy fabricating an argument by putting words in people's mouths, don't you. He was a bad coach, but he wasn't a boogeyman who was at the root of all the evils in Darnold's game. That is how "I see it." 

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No worries in a couple weeks we're drafting Justin Timberpuke who will lead us to the promised land with a howitzer for an arm and the nimbleness of cheetah.  

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3 minutes ago, Pac said:

No worries in a couple weeks we're drafting Justin Timberpuke who will lead us to the promised land with a howitzer for an arm and the nimbleness of cheetah.  

Perhaps we should take a safety.

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sam will flourish in carolina and is a better qb coming out of college than wilson who we are drafting

sam will now have

a good coach-check

a good oc-check

a good rb-check

good wr core-check

a tight end that can catch-check

maybe sewell to protect him too

Now if Sam sucks in Carolina which will surprise me then  I guess he just is part of a long list of college prospects that didnt pan out 

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17 minutes ago, Tranquilo said:

Gase is a horrible coach. But Sam is also a bad quarterback. And unless you can present some statistical support (like the article) to say otherwise, then it's a fact.

Sam is out of the league in 3 years.

Gase still doesn't have a job, per wikipedia.

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6 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Why does he need to look for work?  He's getting paid by the Jets right now NOT to coach.  Think he had 2-3 years left on his deal.  If I'm Gase I take my money and head to whatever island of choice he prefers for a year, then never return to coaching.  

fixed it

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