Rapoport: Herndon Traded to Vikings

[kmnj]

3 minutes ago, BroadwayRay said:

You have no idea what a "bad" draft is. Examples of those would be the ones we had in 2015, 2016 and 2018. Plus what does "each and every day" mean? The friggin season hasn't even started yet. LOL.

meaning yesterday morgan on the roster today he is not-that is another miss by Joe

I know what a bad draft is and joe's first draft was a bad one=becton a first round that a 5 year old could have done is his only hope now -the rest of the draft is hot garbage including mims who will be the wr 5 if he is lucky

 

 

[Cyberjet]

2 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

Fair, but even at his best he wasn't that impressive a player or athlete.  Even if Minnesota gets the 2018 version of Herndon, he was well outside of the top 10 TEs in the league in production, at a position that isn't very deep.  That isn't worth a 4, especially for a player on an expiring contract.  He's a rental and not a good one.

If it was just a 4th I would agree with you. That’s a great trade. Minnesota received a 6th. There is not too much difference hitting on a 4th and 6th round pick in the draft.

 

[Jetsfan80]

1 minute ago, Cyberjet said:

If it was just a 4th I would agree with you. That’s a great trade. Minnesota received a 6th. There is not too much difference hitting on a 4th and 6th round pick in the draft.

 

Yes, there is.  6th rounders have a high tendency to be special teamers, career backups, and even guys who get cut within 1-2 years.  Teams routinely find starters in the 4th round.  This is a ridiculous take you keep repeating and there is zero truth to it.  The 6th going back means almost nothing.

[Cyberjet]

All I’m saying is Minnesota exchanged draft picks in no man’s land to gamble a TE that we feel sucks. Not a big loss for Minnesota 

[#27TheDominator]

1 minute ago, Cyberjet said:

If it was just a 4th I would agree with you. That’s a great trade. Minnesota received a 6th. There is not too much difference hitting on a 4th and 6th round pick in the draft.

 

That is ******* ridiculous.  You have the choice of like 60 more players.  You don't think that ups your odds of getting the guy you like?  I get that having the extra pick is nice.  You can use them in trades, like this one.  Thing is, how many of these guys do you actually want in camp? You can't keep having 12 player draft classes and allow space for them to develop.

[Cyberjet]

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

[Cyberjet]

Oh by the way the 6th round pick Tom Brady says hi

[section314]

11 minutes ago, Cyberjet said:

Well one argument that he has going for him is that Adam Gase was the head coach. 

Do you think Gase hindered his development?
 

If anybody hindered his development, it would be the so called coaches at “the U.” A pro coach assumes that a TE he gets from the draft can catch/ block.

[sec101row23]

3 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

That is ******* ridiculous.  You have the choice of like 60 more players.  You don't think that ups your odds of getting the guy you like?  I get that having the extra pick is nice.  You can use them in trades, like this one.  Thing is, how many of these guys do you actually want in camp? You can't keep having 12 player draft classes and allow space for them to develop.

Agreed.  It’s also more valuable draft capital if you want to trade up during the draft.  

[Barry McCockinner]

35 minutes ago, heymangold said:

i don't think ertz is worth a 4th.

he's not. The Ertz love in jets land is just weird. Dude is washed. I'd rather bring in a young guy w/upside potential than waste reps on a guy collecting his last paycheck.

[Cyberjet]

4 minutes ago, sec101row23 said:

Agreed.  It’s also more valuable draft capital if you want to trade up during the draft.  

Of course it is. This was a good fair trade for both teams. No one got fleeced

[Cyberjet]

That’s the value of the trade for the Jets - 4th round can be turned into two six rounders or better. And yes be used to trade up.

 

it was a good trade for the Jets.

 

It was also good gamble trade for the Vikings.

[Jetsfan80]

@Cyberjet recent 4th round picks who ended up stars/starters/good rotational pieces:

• DE Maxx Crosby (2019)
• G Michael Jordan (2019)
• S Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (2019)
• S Khari Willis (2019)
• RB Tony Pollard (2019)
• RB Nyheim Hines (2018)
• CB Taron Johnson (2018)
• ILB Josey Jewell (2018)
• S Jordan Whitehead (2018)
• S Kyzir White (2018)
• RB Chase Edmonds (2018)
• LB Kenny Young (2018)
• S Eddie Jackson (2017)
• RB Tarik Cohen (2017)
• RB Jamaal Williams (2017)
• OLB Samson Ebukam (2017)
• RB Marlon Mack (2017)
• DE Deatrich Wise (2017)
• QB Dak Prescott (2016)
• LB Blake Martinez (2016)
• OLB De'Vondre Campbell (2016)
• OLB Joe Schobert (2016)
• DE Dean Lowry (2016)
• DT David Onyemata (2016)
• C Shaq Mason (2015)
• DE Za'Darius Smith (2015)
• G Daryl Williams (2015)
• DE Trey Flowers (2015)
• OLB Kwon Alexander (2015)
• WR Jamison Crowder (2015)
• G Mark Glowinski (2015)
• ILB Damien Wilson (2015)
• RB Devonta Freeman (2014)
• DT DaQuan Jones (2014)
• LB Anthony Hitchens  (2014)
• RB James White (2014)
• DB Bashaud Breeland (2014)
• DB Tre Boston (2014)
• C Russell Bodine (2014)
• DB Nevin Lawson (2014)
• RT Cameron Fleming (2014)
• LT David Bakhtiari (2013)
• DE William Gholston (2013)
• C JC Tretter (2013)
• DE Alex Okafor (2013)
• DT Akeem Spence (2013)
• QB Kirk Cousins (2012)
• C Ben Jones (2012)
• LB Nigel Bradham (2012)
• OT Bobby Massie (2012)
• DT Mike Daniels (2012)
• RB Lamar Miller (2012)
• DE Jared Crick (2012)
• WR Travis Benjamin (2012)

 

Recent 6th round picks who ended up stars/starters/good rotational pieces:

• QB Gardner Minshew (2019)
• C Bradley Bozeman (2018)
• DT Sebastian Joseph (2018)
• S Foyesade Olukun (2018)
• WR Russell Gage (2018)
• OT Sam Tevi (2017)
• C Chase Roullier (2017)
• S Xavier Woods (2017)
• DB Chuck Clark (2017)
• G Wes Schweitzer (2016)
• CB Quandre Diggs (2015)
• TE Darren Waller (2015)
• G Zach Fulton (2014)
• C Matt Paradis (2014)
• OL Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (2014)
• RB Latavius Murray (2013)
• LB Vince Williams (2013)
• OT Ryan Jensen (2013)
• RB Theo Reddick (2013)
• LB Danny Trevathan (2012)
• RB Alfred Morris (2012)

 

That's 54 hits in the 4th round in drafts from 2012-19 compared to just 21 in the 6th round in the same span.  That's a pretty massive difference.  You're more than 2x as likely to find a hit in the 4th vs the 6th round. 

And you'll notice there's a lot more star power in the 4th than the 6th, too.  Dak Prescott, Bakhtiari, Eddie Jackson, Za'Darius Smith and Trey Flowers are 4th rounders who are some of the best at their positions.  And Kirk Cousins is a massive hit at QB for a 4th rounder too.  You shouldn't be able to find a long-term starting QB in the 4th but its happened twice since 2012.

Meanwhile, the only 6th round stars in that span are Sam Tevi and Darren Waller.  

[Barry McCockinner]

5 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

@Cyberjet recent 4th round picks who ended up stars/starters/good rotational pieces:

• DE Maxx Crosby (2019)
• G Michael Jordan (2019)
• S Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (2019)
• S Khari Willis (2019)
• RB Tony Pollard (2019)
• RB Nyheim Hines (2018)
• CB Taron Johnson (2018)
• ILB Josey Jewell (2018)
• S Jordan Whitehead (2018)
• S Kyzir White (2018)
• RB Chase Edmonds (2018)
• LB Kenny Young (2018)
• S Eddie Jackson (2017)
• RB Tarik Cohen (2017)
• RB Jamaal Williams (2017)
• OLB Samson Ebukam (2017)
• RB Marlon Mack (2017)
• DE Deatrich Wise (2017)
• QB Dak Prescott (2016)
• LB Blake Martinez (2016)
• OLB De'Vondre Campbell (2016)
• OLB Joe Schobert (2016)
• DE Dean Lowry (2016)
• DT David Onyemata (2016)
• C Shaq Mason (2015)
• DE Za'Darius Smith (2015)
• G Daryl Williams (2015)
• DE Trey Flowers (2015)
• OLB Kwon Alexander (2015)
• WR Jamison Crowder (2015)
• G Mark Glowinski (2015)
• ILB Damien Wilson (2015)
• RB Devonta Freeman (2014)
• DT DaQuan Jones (2014)
• LB Anthony Hitchens  (2014)
• RB James White (2014)
• DB Bashaud Breeland (2014)
• DB Tre Boston (2014)
• C Russell Bodine (2014)
• DB Nevin Lawson (2014)
• RT Cameron Fleming (2014)
• LT David Bakhtiari (2013)
• DE William Gholston (2013)
• C JC Tretter (2013)
• DE Alex Okafor (2013)
• DT Akeem Spence (2013)
• QB Kirk Cousins (2012)
• C Ben Jones (2012)
• LB Nigel Bradham (2012)
• OT Bobby Massie (2012)
• DT Mike Daniels (2012)
• RB Lamar Miller (2012)
• DE Jared Crick (2012)
• WR Travis Benjamin (2012)

 

Recent 6th round picks who ended up stars/starters/good rotational pieces:

• QB Gardner Minshew (2019)
• C Bradley Bozeman (2018)
• DT Sebastian Joseph (2018)
• S Foyesade Olukun (2018)
• WR Russell Gage (2018)
• OT Sam Tevi (2017)
• C Chase Roullier (2017)
• S Xavier Woods (2017)
• DB Chuck Clark (2017)
• G Wes Schweitzer (2016)
• CB Quandre Diggs (2015)
• TE Darren Waller (2015)
• G Zach Fulton (2014)
• C Matt Paradis (2014)
• OL Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (2014)
• RB Latavius Murray (2013)
• LB Vince Williams (2013)
• OT Ryan Jensen (2013)
• RB Theo Reddick (2013)
• LB Danny Trevathan (2012)
• RB Alfred Morris (2012)

 

That's 54 hits in the 4th round in drafts from 2012-19 compared to just 21 in the 6th round in the same span.  That's a pretty massive difference.  

yea but WHAT ABOUT Tom Brady

[Alka]

12 minutes ago, Cyberjet said:

That’s the value of the trade for the Jets - 4th round can be turned into two six rounders or better. And yes be used to trade up.

 

it was a good trade for the Jets.

 

It was also good gamble trade for the Vikings.

You will never see a 4th rounder traded for 2- 6th round picks.  You might see a 4th rounder traded for a 5th rounder and a 6th rounder, perhaps.

If the Jets were to take the 4th rounder they received and traded for 2- 6th round picks, then they just should have traded Herndon for a 6th round pick, since the Jets gave up a 6th round pick to acquire the 4th round pick.

More than likely, JD uses the 4th round pick to pick a player, or move up in the draft using another pick as well to do so.  

[Cyberjet]

Yeah what about him.

The draft is a crap shoot definitely after the 3rd round. Percentages bear that out. You can cherry pick through each draft to prove your points.

would I rather have a 4th round pick over a 6th - of course. Do the percentages in drafts history prove that a 4 th rounder is a lock compared to a 6th - not really.

[#27TheDominator]

1 hour ago, Cyberjet said:

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

I have my problems with the methodology here, but I don't think there is a clean way to make the point.  The point it is making does not support the idea that there isn't much difference between a 4th and 6th.  I would argue that the difference between a 4th and 6th is even more significant because 4th rounders are not getting started based on where they were picked, where plenty of guys in the first are.

1 hour ago, Cyberjet said:

Oh by the way the 6th round pick Tom Brady says hi

You are doubling down on this?  The article says that the 4th has generally has a 5-10% more likelihood of finding a player.  Seems like a worthwhile move to me. Also Tom Brady came out in 2000.  That is, quite literally, ancient history in the NFL.  He also may be a bit of an outlier.  What do you think? 

[Ken Schroy]

Excellent deal by JD. Herndon hasn't shown anything in 3 years. Last year he looked like he didn't want to play football anymore. Gase sucked but these players know that they are playing for their jobs and for the next HC and Herndon sucked. Maybe he will revive his career in MN. Good luck with that.

[Daddy Wang Doodle]

We got a 4th round pick for a player we thought might just be cut outright, so why is this ninny complaining?

Oh that's right, it's the internet, someone must always be wrong

[clayton163v]

44 minutes ago, BroadwayRay said:

You have no idea what a "bad" draft is. Examples of those would be the ones we had in 2015, 2016 and 2018. Plus what does "each and every day" mean? The friggin season hasn't even started yet. LOL.

Can anyone say Ron Farout?  The dude was not even listed in the Buchsbaum guide (a real achievement - greatest guides ever!).  We cut the first round pick the following year.  Nobody even took a sniff. 

Ah, the young pup Jet fans.  I sometimes wonder if they realize where they are?

It is wonderful to see their unrealistic views of the draft.  How they measure draft success or failure.  The hopelessly unrealistic dreams of trading our trash for elite NFL talent.   Their endlessly optimistic views on how our unproven rookies will thrive on the NFL battlefield.  Their lack of interest in the back end of the roster which is where playoff dreams are almost always found. 

There was a time when I believed in such things.  That was before the Jets taught me the depth of my mistake.  But I love all of them.  Both players and fans.  Even DWC.  Even now, I remain a homer.  My message to my fellow Jet fans:

"moritūrī tē salūtant".

 

 

[Claymation]

48 minutes ago, Cyberjet said:

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

Thanks for the link. Since 2005-2014 as per the link.

To find a starter as a DL, it is 3x more likely in the 4th than the 6th.

To find a starter as a TE, it is 50% more likely in the 4th than the 6th.

To find a starter as an OL, it is 2x more likely in the 4th than the 6th.

To find a starter as an LB, it is 3x more likely in the 4th than the 6th.

To find a starter as an WR, it is 33% more likely in the 4th than the 6th.

To find a starter as an DB, it is 33% more likely in the 4th than the 6th.

To find a starter as an RB, it is 2x more likely in the 4th than the 6th.

As for QBs, only 8% of QBs selected in the 4th round are starters, none in the 6th round.

Looks like a 4th rounder is a better pick than a 6th rounder.

 

[KRL]

MIN was over a barrel with Smith going down and Douglas abused them: 

 

Adam Schefter@AdamSchefter 23m

Vikings’ TE Irv Smith underwent surgery to repair his meniscus this morning. With a 4-5 month recovery timetable, it is most likely to end his season, per sources.

[Augustiniak]

Herndon has sucked for the jets and hasn’t been able to stay healthy.  He doesn’t bring any one skill set that makes him valuable.  The trade was a no brainer.  The big question is, what are the jets going to do at TE and how does this impact the offense they want to run?  They have plenty of wrs and rbs who can catch, maybe they’re going spread.

[BroadwayBen]

Too lazy to read the full 10 pages worth of comments (which I'm sure are an absolute delight) but that headline that rappoport used is absolute lunacy....

[AlexVanDyke]

I can’t believe 4th versus 6th os even being debated.  

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, Cyberjet said:

Yeah what about him.

The draft is a crap shoot definitely after the 3rd round. Percentages bear that out. You can cherry pick through each draft to prove your points.

would I rather have a 4th round pick over a 6th - of course. Do the percentages in drafts history prove that a 4 th rounder is a lock compared to a 6th - not really.

 

Cherry pick?  I found 54 players across 8 drafts for you that help demonstrate it is NOT a crap shoot.  The draft is like poker, not roulette or craps.  You are just straight up wrong and are flailing on this one.  A 4th rounder >>>> 6th rounder and I provided fairly definitive proof of that.  Now sit there in your wrongness.

[Cyberjet]

How this has morphed into that this was a debate about the value of a 4th vs 6th is beyond me. 
 

it’s just an opinion that the Jets made a good trade not a a great trade as expressed by some. The idea that the Jets fleeced Minnesota by sending Herndon and a 6th rounder for a 4th rounder is not my definition of fleecing.

Many feel we fleeced Minnesota because Herndon sucks (“we were cutting him anyway”) and is unplayable. Maybe so. Then the Jets win the trade. The Jets get a 4th and Minnesota loses their  4th for a 6th. Not a horrible loss for Minnesota.

If Herndon has some level of success with Minnesota it’s good for them. Worth a gamble by them 

 

[choon328]

5 minutes ago, Cyberjet said:

How this has morphed into that this was a debate about the value of a 4th vs 6th is beyond me. 
 

it’s just an opinion that the Jets made a good trade not a a great trade as expressed by some. The idea that the Jets fleeced Minnesota by sending Herndon and a 6th rounder for a 4th rounder is not my definition of fleecing.

Many feel we fleeced Minnesota because Herndon sucks (“we were cutting him anyway”) and is unplayable. Maybe so. Then the Jets win the trade. The Jets get a 4th and Minnesota loses their  4th for a 6th. Not a horrible loss for Minnesota.

If Herndon has some level of success with Minnesota it’s good for them. Worth a gamble by them 

 

Based on the trade value chart the difference between a 4th and 6th is a late 4th rd pick. 

The Jets got a late 4th value for Herndon, which is a great deal. 

[Albaniajet]

1 hour ago, Augustiniak said:

Herndon has sucked for the jets and hasn’t been able to stay healthy.  He doesn’t bring any one skill set that makes him valuable.  The trade was a no brainer.  The big question is, what are the jets going to do at TE and how does this impact the offense they want to run?  They have plenty of wrs and rbs who can catch, maybe they’re going spread.

Kroft

[Jetsfan80]

46 minutes ago, Cyberjet said:

How this has morphed into that this was a debate about the value of a 4th vs 6th is beyond me. 

"Beyond" you?   You made it about that by repeatedly stating the 6th rounder going back to Minnesota makes it a good deal for Minnesota.  It doesn't.  If you think Herndon will be good for them, fine, we can debate that.  But you're objectively and empirically wrong when thinking there isn't much difference between a 4th & 6th.  

Now admit you're wrong, stop arguing that silly point, and the thread can go back to all the other things you're wrong about when evaluating Herndon and the trade.

[Cyberjet]

4 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

"Beyond" you?   You made it about that by repeatedly stating the 6th rounder going back to Minnesota makes it a good deal for Minnesota.  It doesn't.  If you think Herndon will be good for them, fine, we can debate that.  But you're objectively and empirically wrong when thinking there isn't much difference between a 4th & 6th.  

Now admit you're wrong, stop arguing that silly point, and the thread can go back to all the other things you're wrong about when evaluating Herndon and the trade.

In getting a 6th rounder plus a TE for a 4th rounder was a reasonably good deal  for Minnesota. As people have said we think Herndon  sucks therefore it was a great deal for the Jets. In other words the Jets basically received a 4th rounder for a 6th rounder for nothing. 
 

I happen to think that it’s good value by Minnesota to recover a draft pick (therefore maintain the same # of picks albeit one of lesser value) along with a player (who has arguable value). The percent of success of picks after the 3rd round drops off significantly. 

[JetsFanShawn]

21 hours ago, JetNation said:

The New York Jets have announced that Tight End Chris Herndon has been traded to the Vikings. Here is the official release from the team. You can also visit our forums to read more about the Chris Herndon trade.

Jets Acquire 4th-Rounder from Vikings in Exchange for TE Chris Herndon, Pick

GM Joe Douglas Has Multiple Fourth-Round Picks in 2022

The Jets on Tuesday acquired a 2022 fourth-round pick from the Vikings in exchange for TE Chris Herndon and a 2022 sixth-round pick.

A fourth-round selection of the Jets in 2018, Herndon made 12 starts his rookie season and totaled 39 receptions for 502 yards with 4 receiving TDs. He only appeared in a game his sophomore pro campaign as he fractured a rib in a win over the Giants after missing a combined eight games to a suspension and then a hamstring injury.

The 6-4, 253-pounder appeared in 16 games last season while making 13 starts, finishing with 31 catches for 287 yards with 3 TDs. The Jets TE room includes Tyler Kroft, who had 2 TD catches against the Packers in the team’s second preseason game. Trevon Wesco also has the ability to line up at tight end, but he’s been used primarily at FB in Mike LaFleur’s west coast scheme. Ryan Griffin, a nine-year veteran who hauled in 5 TDs in 2019 and is working his way back from a hamstring injury, and Dan Brown, a core special-teams performer, were released Tuesday.

The Jets will have multiple fourth-round picks in April as they already own Carolina’s Round 4 selection. They acquired second- and fourth-round picks from Carolina when they sent QB Sam Darnold to the Panthers in April. Earlier this week, Jets GM Joe Douglas went the trade route to acquire DE Shaq Lawson from the Texans in exchange for a 2022 sixth-round pick.

The post Chris Herndon Traded appeared first on JetNation.com (NY Jets Blog & Forum).

http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/Jetnationcom?d=yIl2AUoC8zA http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/Jetnationcom?d=qj6IDK7rITs

http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/Jetnationcom/~4/F8TZAk_lA3M

Click here to read the full story...

poor realy  

[Jets723]

6 hours ago, Cyberjet said:

All I’m saying is Minnesota exchanged draft picks in no man’s land to gamble a TE that we feel sucks. Not a big loss for Minnesota 

Well a 4th is a lot better than a 6th.   Herndon was going to get cut anyway so we we are able move up a couple rounds which makes it worth it 

[Embrace the Suck]

6 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

You know what team needs a talented athlete at TE really badly?

The New York Jets.  

And by the way, Herndon really isn't that talented.  He wasn't that good in 2018, and when judging him on athletic ability only he's actually pretty well below average at the TE position compared to his NFL peers.  Just look at his scores when he was coming out of Miami:

 

 

Mike Maccagnan rarely drafted elite athletes so this should be no surprise.

Herndon sucks.

Wow, for a guy who's athletic potential was talked up he rated like crap. While stats aren't everything they do bear some value.

[RutgersJetFan]

6 hours ago, Cyberjet said:

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

It's raw percentages here, so take it with a grain of salt, but note the points they make about positions. Success rate for some positions still holds well for the 4th round. OL in particular has always been a great round to find value for guys who can start quickly on the line. If we're talking about quarterbacks, yes, not much difference once you get out of the early 2nd, but for positions in the trenches it makes a big difference. That's why the criticisms of taking interior lineman early in the draft have always held; you can find immediate starters in the 3rd and 4th, but generally can't for skill positions. That's why you take the QB/LT/WR/CB/Edge...etc in the 1st and 2nd and the C/G in the 3rd through 5th. Not even remotely true for guys in the 6th and 7th.