Cooper Kupp

[redlichtie]

2 hours ago, KRL said:

Does anyone realize he was a 3rd round pick in the 2017 Draft (#69):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_NFL_Draft#Round_3

And now he's the most productive WR in the game:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/K/KuppCo00.htm

Stop worrying about when we draft a WR, excellent ones can be found
anywhere

This is also true of offensive linemen, and pretty much every position with the possible exception of edge rusher….although maybe that’s just us and our inability to find anything better than the Mauldin’s, Polite’s & Zuniga’s of this world

[hawk]

Trade down, same hope every year.  The more sh*t you throw against the wall the more that will stick.  

[oatmeal]

2 hours ago, Irish Jet said:

I don't think anyone is saying good WR's can't be found late. We're saying the Jets can't find them.

☝️?This, this, this and some more of this 

 

[Augustiniak]

the better your qb is the worse your wrs can be.  And the jets have had real crappy qbs.

[The Crusher]

Cooper Cupp seriously? 

[SomebodytoAnybody47]

3 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

the better your qb is the worse your wrs can be.  And the jets have had real crappy qbs.

This definitely has played a role in things. 

But WRs drafted here have never left and went on to become stars elsewhere either. They actually just go straight out of the league. 

So…Jets really have just sucked at picking WRs. 

[Barry McCockinner]

2 hours ago, KRL said:

Does anyone realize he was a 3rd round pick in the 2017 Draft (#69):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_NFL_Draft#Round_3

And now he's the most productive WR in the game:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/K/KuppCo00.htm

Stop worrying about when we draft a WR, excellent ones can be found
anywhere

You may not realize this but we've got the #69 pick in the 2022 draft. One Cooper Kupp, coming up.

[Chrebetfan80]

Coming out that year I felt really high on Kupp (easy to say now but its true, also I had a lot of inside info knowing his coach at the time). I felt like people looked at him like Eric Decker and Jordy Nelson when they were drafted.  

I loved all 3 guys coming out, not saying im a great judge of draft talent at WR, but I think it was pretty easy to see how good Kupp would be watching his college tape.  Maybe you didnt predict Triple Crown winner, but i dont know how you watch his tape and thought he'd flop. 

I dont really get that feeling from a lot of these mid round guys.  Theres some solid players like Shakir, Melton, Skyy Moore who i think can be really productive, I just dont know if thats the answer for the jets and their needs right now.  If you added 1 of those three in addition to a London or a trade id feel way better. 

[Augustiniak]

Sure the jets can find a quality wr in the 2nd round, they seem to have done it (finally) last year.  But if they don’t trade for a vet before the draft and then finish day 1 of the draft with an edge and a DT, this board will most definitely be irate that douglas hasn’t done enough to help wilson get to the next level, that just adding TEs isn’t enough.  This board will be miserable heading into day 2 hoping that someone like skyy can really elevate the wrs.

[Biggs]

Coaching staffs matter.  It’s not just about scheme and exploiting mismatches.  Some teams do a better job at player development.  

[JustInFudge]

48 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Now list all our descent non-first round star WR’s 

Surely if it’s so easy, we have a few of our own equal to those guys, right? Because it’s so easy, we can toss a third rounder at it and problem solved?

Gotta save those #1’s for Safety’s and DT’s anyway….

No thanks, I simply pointed out the error in the comment.  Kupp is not an outlier.  Most of the best WR's in Football were not taken in the first round.  Sorry that bothers you but facts are facts.  

[JustInFudge]

2 hours ago, southparkcpa said:

I worded it poorly....   I would venture to say most were taken in rounds 1-3.

There is a direct statistical relation between draft round and success I suppose was my point.

https://sports.yahoo.com/news/nfl-draft-hall-famers-come-003451925.html

 

This article is totally and completely irrelevant.  lol

Sure, 1st round prospect have a higher hit rate.  Duh.  Nobody argued that obvious fact.  

The point is, Kupp is not an outlier.  In fact, most of TODAY's best WR's were not first round picks.  Again, I dont know why this bothers so many of you, I'm just pointing out a fact.  I'm not suggesting anything or saying anything other than, providing the simple truth.

 

 

[southparkcpa]

2 minutes ago, JiFapono said:

This article is totally and completely irrelevant.  lol

Sure, 1st round prospect have a higher hit rate.  Duh.  Nobody argued that obvious fact.  

The point is, Kupp is not an outlier.  In fact, most of TODAY's best WR's were not first round picks.  Again, I dont know this bothers so many of you, I'm just pointing out a fact.  I'm not suggesting anything or saying anything other than, providing the simple truth.

 

 

Im not bothered one bit.....   Like @Warfish stated, where's ours????

[derp]

1 minute ago, southparkcpa said:

Im not bothered one bit.....   Like @Warfish stated, where's ours????

You could play that game for a bunch of positions.

[JetBlue]

3 hours ago, KRL said:

Does anyone realize he was a 3rd round pick in the 2017 Draft (#69):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_NFL_Draft#Round_3

And now he's the most productive WR in the game:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/K/KuppCo00.htm

Stop worrying about when we draft a WR, excellent ones can be found
anywhere

Very few number 1 receivers are found in round 3 and beyond. Not to say it never happens but when you neglect the position in FA they way JD has, you really need a receiver who can come in a produce right away or as soon as possible.  Bottom line we need to consider double dipping at receiver anyway so taking one in round 3 or 4 would make sense to me.   

[Tranquilo]

I haven't done the research but a quick glance, are most of the receivers who turn out to be really good, and drafted outside the first round, kick returners in college? Or at least have some experience?

[UntouchableCrew]

40 minutes ago, Snell41 said:

 

Yes, but we’re the Jets. We don’t find those guys. We never have and we never will.


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

 

If you haven't noticed, the idea here is to change things and stop sucking.

[Jimmy 2 Times]

This is why you double dip at receiver and edge every year.  Better chances to find the diamonds.

[JetBlue]

1 hour ago, BurntDice said:

People are so hyped up on Watson now. He seems very very similar to our guy Mims. 

Mims college tape had him as a late first or second round pick.  His first season he showed promise; last season was a sh*t show but I personally am not giving up on him even if the team does and cuts him.  I strongly believe he can play and will do so for some team. You don't automatically just forget how to play football at age 23.   Watson is 6'5 and a bit faster and not quite as physical.  I also think he may be a little better route runner.   I would have no problem with him at 35 or 38.  My biggest concern with him is level of comp but we have seen over and over players from small schools come in and dominate.  

[Warfish]

1 hour ago, k-met57 said:

Sutton

Kirk

Miller

Chark

Gallup

Samuel

aJ Brown

Harman

Metcalf

Diontae Johnson

MAclaurin

Higging

Pittman Jr

Claypool

Gabriel Davis

 

None of them Jets.

So again, if it's so easy to find star WR's in the third or later, please list all OUR star WR's from the 3rd or later.

Other people's cherry picked picks don't mean anything to us.  If it's so easy, surely WE, a perenially WR-deficient team, have snagged a few.

How's that "as good as any first rounder" Mims doing these days, for example?

And surely ArDarius Stewart and Chad Hansen are now finishing up their spectacular careers for us, right, because third round WR's are so easy to find.

[Biggs]

The top 10 receivers in receptions in 2021 had the following QB's.  Stafford, Rodgers, Mahomes, Cousins, Jackson, Rothlisberger, Herbert, Carr and Tua.   Tua is the only outlier which probably means Waddle was not just a great talent but he got great college coaching and would excell with anyone day 1.  

Mimms goes to the Rams and he might well have been developed by a great coaching staff and had a QB who got him the ball.  Might not but there's something more than draft position involved in getting a top WR.  

[The Crusher]

33 minutes ago, JiFapono said:

This article is totally and completely irrelevant.  lol

Sure, 1st round prospect have a higher hit rate.  Duh.  Nobody argued that obvious fact.  

The point is, Kupp is not an outlier.  In fact, most of TODAY's best WR's were not first round picks.  Again, I dont know this bothers so many of you, I'm just pointing out a fact.  I'm not suggesting anything or saying anything other than, providing the simple truth.

 

 

Team they play for and QB they play with likely weighs heavily. Just a hunch. 

[UntouchableCrew]

1 minute ago, Warfish said:

None of them Jets.

So again, if it's so easy to find star WR's in the third or later, please list all OUR star WR's from the 3rd or later.

Other people's cherry picked picks don't mean anything to us.  If it's so easy, surely WE, a perenially WR-deficient team, have snagged a few.

How's that "as good as any first rounder" Mims doing these days, for example?

And surely ArDarius Stewart and Chad Hansen are now finishing up their spectacular careers for us, right, because third round WR's are so easy to find.

If you're that confident the Jets will never find a good WR after the first round why would you believe they'd be capable of finding one in the first round?

Why are past failures of previous Jets administrations relevant at all to anything the Jets are doing now?

We're all hopeful that this general manager, scouting staff, and administration are better at evaluating WR talent that previous ones. So far Denzel Mims looks like a miss and Elijah Moore looks like a hit. But clearly waxing about Ardarius Stewart and Chad Hansen is completely irrelevant.

[Sperm Edwards]

1 hour ago, sec143dmf said:

And for every Cooper Kupp there are thousands of guys who never pan out.  And as a Jet fan how can we expect this franchise to finally figure it out.  I am a Joe Douglas supporter but this post doesn't make much sense.  I can end my whole work day naming WR's drafted in the first three rounds who amounted to nothing. 

thousands?

[k-met57]

5 minutes ago, Warfish said:

None of them Jets.

So again, if it's so easy to find star WR's in the third or later, please list all OUR star WR's from the 3rd or later.

Other people's cherry picked picks don't mean anything to us.  If it's so easy, surely WE, a perenially WR-deficient team, have snagged a few.

How's that "as good as any first rounder" Mims doing these days, for example?

And surely ArDarius Stewart and Chad Hansen are now finishing up their spectacular careers for us, right, because third round WR's are so easy to find.

so first of all, i apologize if i didn't get the question correctly...clearly the jets have been horrible at drafting WR's. That being said i didn't cherry pick most of these, round 2 WR's are there to be had.

[PepPep]

2 hours ago, Pointdexter said:

For what it's worth, in this particular draft, I don't think there's much of a talent gap between the guys projected in the first round vs the second round.

Honestly I think guys like Christian Watson, Chris Olave, Treylon Burks, and Jalen Tolbert are just as good of prospects as Garret Wilson and Drake London. 

Based on draft position, in my opinion, there is a lot more value in waiting until that second group by getting an edge and/or another piece for the OL in rd 1.

This is really how I am looking at it. And even when you go a bit further, to the third tier of prospects (Ezukanman, Rambo, Melton, Gray, Austin Jr., Ross, Robinson, Doubs, etc.) the gap is not THAT big. The argument can be made that it is because this is a weak draft class at WR, but there is still depth to bring in a nice weapon for Zach and potentially hit on a real gem. I have been pushing for Alec Pierce, who I loved everything about but had questions about his pure speed as a deep threat. Well he blazed 4.33 at the combine at 6'3, 215 and scored a 9.62 on the RAS. He's also a perfect fit as a big 'X' who can go deep or over the middle. With his size, I could even see him moving into a split 'Y' receiving role on multiple TE sets. 

Point is, yes, you can not only hit on gem who turns into a stud later on in the draft but you can simply add a legit weapon without using a top 10 pick.  

[THE BARON]

I'm on record since pre combine describing Ickey and Sauce as the two best players in the draft.

Now, for this thread... I will declare day two and three WR prospects that will be major contributors.

Day Two

Jashan Dotson (might even go day one if some GM out there is smart)

Calvin Austin (probably day two.  speedy but small.  however, ability to cut/juke will make up for size/contact worries)

Day Three

Alec Pierce (very aggressive to the ball.  looks like plastic man outstretching DB's for any ball that comes hear him.  Not a polished rout runner, BUT... he can be and will be.  With decent position coaching, he will be a super nice player.)

Kyle Philips. (watched a bunch of highlights.  not sure how he does it but he does.  underwhelms with all measureables as a WR.  looks more like a TE when he's doing his job.  still, he sees his openings and makes it happen.  you've heard of a QB that "throws his WR's open... This WR runs himself open.  Not sure how he will do in press man against a good CB, but will work well underneath or in zone coverage. 

If the JD drafts any of the above.  Be happy.  Be very happy. 

 

[CanadaSteve]

2 hours ago, sec101row23 said:

This could be said for every position.   

True; but if you listen to a lot on the board, it sounds like outside of 2-3 possible receivers, everyone else is a bust this year.  It seems a bit extreme, to me anyway, to declare a position of the draft a bust before the players are even drafted, but I suppose that is the next logical step.  I mean, many Jet fans declare players a bust after four exhibition games, so why not get a jump on things really!

[PepPep]

15 minutes ago, Warfish said:

None of them Jets.

So again, if it's so easy to find star WR's in the third or later, please list all OUR star WR's from the 3rd or later.

Other people's cherry picked picks don't mean anything to us.  If it's so easy, surely WE, a perenially WR-deficient team, have snagged a few.

How's that "as good as any first rounder" Mims doing these days, for example?

And surely ArDarius Stewart and Chad Hansen are now finishing up their spectacular careers for us, right, because third round WR's are so easy to find.

 

10 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

If you're that confident the Jets will never find a good WR after the first round why would you believe they'd be capable of finding one in the first round?

Why are past failures of previous Jets administrations relevant at all to anything the Jets are doing now?

We're all hopeful that this general manager, scouting staff, and administration are better at evaluating WR talent that previous ones. So far Denzel Mims looks like a miss and Elijah Moore looks like a hit. But clearly waxing about Ardarius Stewart and Chad Hansen is completely irrelevant.

I completely agree. JD has not been perfect. Not even close. But constantly bringing up Mims (who could still very much resurrect his career-BTW) without even the slightest mention of Moore is a bit unfair. It would be like talking about Becton as a bust (who could also very much still be a star) without mentioning AVT. 

And 100%, JD and his draft picks have nothing to do with what Idzik or Macc did. Its irrelevant. While its true that the Jets have not had a history of drafting great WRs, you can't just assume a new GM, coaches and group of scouts won't be able to hit on one without using a top 10 pick.     

[playtowinthegame]

Robby Anderson 

Do you remember Mac found him as an undrafted free agent? 

[NIGHT STALKER]

It doesn't matter where a player is taken in the draft.  The question is, can they be developed into not just an NFL player, but a player that will last beyond 4 years...most players picked in the draft don't last past their rookie contract for one reason or other.  We all know the drill when it comes to the draft...IT'S A CRAP SHOOT!  So, let's hope JD nails half of these picks the end of April that will become starters past 4 years...and that's asking a lot.

[Augustiniak]

38 minutes ago, JetBlue said:

Mims college tape had him as a late first or second round pick.  His first season he showed promise; last season was a sh*t show but I personally am not giving up on him even if the team does and cuts him.  I strongly believe he can play and will do so for some team. You don't automatically just forget how to play football at age 23.   Watson is 6'5 and a bit faster and not quite as physical.  I also think he may be a little better route runner.   I would have no problem with him at 35 or 38.  My biggest concern with him is level of comp but we have seen over and over players from small schools come in and dominate.  

I still think the problem with mims last year was that he fell behind early in training camp and then the coaches didn’t favor him and he couldn’t overcome the mental aspects of rising on the depth chart.  He could probably use a fresh start somewhere else.

[Warfish]

44 minutes ago, JiFapono said:

Kupp is not an outlier. 

Outlier:

"A data point on a graph or in a set of results that is very much bigger or smaller than the next nearest data point."

We'll see if Cupp meets that below.....

44 minutes ago, JiFapono said:

Most of the best WR's in Football were not taken in the first round.  Sorry that bothers you but facts are facts.  

Doesn't bother me in the least.  I enjoy the debate.

Let's look closer at that Cooper draft:

In 2017, there were 26 WR's picked in the third round or later.  Including the aforementioned ArDarius Stewart and Chad Hansen (both busts) by our own Jets.

Of that group, exactly three Cupp, Godwin and Galladay, turned out to be descent pro WR's.

Even if we limit it just to the third round, 8 WR"s were selected in the third, of which exactly two (Cupp and Godwin) became stars.  That's a 25% success rate.  37.5% if you want to count Galladay too.

In that same draft, 6 WR's were picked in he first two rounds.  Only 3 in the First.

Of that group, exactly three, Davis (before he got here), Williams and JuJu turned out to be descent pro WR's.   That's a 50% success rate in the first two rounds.  75% if we consider just the first round.  

Cupp, indeed the unquestionably best WR to-date of that draft, IS the outlier.  As is Godwin (who played in a high-passing O with Winston and Tom Brady).  ArDarius Stewart and Chad Hanson and the bulk of the other 3rd or later drafted WR's other are the norms.  

Meanwhile the first two rounds were a 50/50 shot.  Much better than the 11% (or 37.5% if you prefer just the 3rd) shot of picking a 3rd to 7th round WR that draft.

The NFL Draft is a crapshoot at best, we all know it.  Even 50/50 in the first two rounds is craptstic bad odds (Mims the best example here).  But the odds of landing a star WR drops precipitously the later in the draft you pick them, and the worse your team is on Offense and at QB.  Yes, in the aggregate across the entire league, a fair few number of mid-rounders, mostly on better teams with great QB's, have found success.  And most haven't.  

But that is not the entire population of this and later picked WR"s, it's a cherry picked subpopulation.  It's akin to the "well, Peyton Manning sucked as a rookie, so Zach Wilson will surely be an HOF'er" argument.  One guy is an outlier when the odds are 11% for and 89% against.

It's interesting to me that some folks look at Cupp, and see a sure thing for us picking later too, and don't even notice the two guys in that same draft WE OURSELVES picked who both busted, lol.  Even in that small sub-population, the odds are 2-1 against.

The higher you pick, the better prospect you should get, and the higher the chance of success.  The later you pick, especially as a bad or QB deficient team, the lower your odds.  Great teams with great QB's can afford to do this, because they have a great situation to put those lower-ranked prospects into.  Bad teams with bad QB's simply do not have this advantage.

IMO a team as utterly deficient as ours on offense should be doubling down.  Taking BOTH our positions.  Draft a WR high, and draft a WR mid-rounds.  A 1st and a 3rd or 4th.  Better than yet another Safety and DT in a modern NFL utterly driven by Offense and passing.

Ah, TLDR, I know.  Agree to disagree would have been much easier to write, lol.  

 

[Bronx]

Conclusion: not every NFL star was drafted on the 1st round.

Tom Brady, Joe Montana, Bret Favre...

[Warfish]

9 minutes ago, PepPep said:

 

I completely agree. JD has not been perfect. Not even close. But constantly bringing up Mims (who could still very much resurrect his career-BTW) without even the slightest mention of Moore is a bit unfair. It would be like talking about Becton as a bust (who could also very much still be a star) without mentioning AVT. 

And 100%, JD and his draft picks have nothing to do with what Idzik or Macc did. Its irrelevant. While its true that the Jets have not had a history of drafting great WRs, you can't just assume a new GM, coaches and group of scouts won't be able to hit on one without using a top 10 pick.     

Was he responding to me in that post you quoted?  I have him on ignore.

Moore is a potential hit, absolutely, I have high hopes for him.

He was also picked 34th, the 2nd pick of the 2nd round.  Basically a first rounder.  Not a mid-third rounder.  Moore supports my argument, he does not detract against it.

JD is 50/50 on WR's in the first two rounds, Moore looks like he could be a hit if he stays healthy, and he certainly showed he can play successfully at this level when he is healthy.  Mims so far looks like a huge bust.  

JD has not picked any late-round WR's as yet so we don't have an real picks to evaluate for JD specifically.  

And to be clear, it's not about "what Idzik did", anymore than it's about "Cooper Cupp is a star", it's about the odds overall, especially for a bad team with a bad QB.  And the facts on that are clear, the lower you pick, the lower the chance of success, especially if you are not a good team and do not have a great QB.  

Ultimately, we'll all just have to see what JD does.  It's his show, we all just comment on it.