Saul Goodman Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 One more thought - Maccagnan, coming from a scouting a background, will likely trust (perhaps being overconfident) that he will get a good player no matter where we are picking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Augustiniak Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 12 minutes ago, Saul Goodman said: One more thought - Maccagnan, coming from a scouting a background, will likely trust (perhaps being overconfident) that he will get a good player no matter where we are picking. which works against getting a qb. he'll be happy getting tackle in the first round whom his scouts have rated the 7th best player when they're picking 12th and celebrate while 5 other teams get qbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mackman55 Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 When the Jets pick in the 6-10 range come April 26th (my estimate) next year down in Texas they should select Baker Mayfield QB Oklahoma. Last Saturday"s "crotch grab from heaven" should guarantee he is still available when the Jets pick, with no move up necessary. The Jets get the best QB in the draft and their franchise QB for the next 10 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lizard King Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 34 minutes ago, Saul Goodman said: One more thought - Maccagnan, coming from a scouting a background, will likely trust (perhaps being overconfident) that he will get a good player no matter where we are picking. That’s ridiculous. If MacCagnan has half a brain, he realizes that you can’t pass on a franchise quarterback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantasy Island Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 5 minutes ago, Mackman55 said: When the Jets pick in the 6-10 range come April 26th (my estimate) next year down in Texas they should select Baker Mayfield QB Oklahoma. Last Saturday"s "crotch grab from heaven" should guarantee he is still available when the Jets pick, with no move up necessary. The Jets get the best QB in the draft and their franchise QB for the next 10 years. The only fly in the ointment is Mac. You send him to the local pizzeria to get a pizza, he comes back with a hamburger from McDonalds. He can't draft for @#$%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lizard King Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 9 minutes ago, Fantasy Island said: The only fly in the ointment is Mac. You send him to the local pizzeria to get a pizza, he comes back with a hamburger from McDonalds. He can't draft for @#$%. Right. That’s why a team with 1:1,000,000 odds this year was in the playoff hunt as recently as two weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BCJet Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 I hope we sign cousins, and really couldnt care less if he is the "highest paid player in the league" for a year. We can use the rest of the FA money to sign Ealy, ASJ, DD, Eric Tomlinson, Dozier (backup interior line), and spend on 1/2 outside FAs. They can go into the draft and hope that Bradley Chubb is available when we pick, so that we can bookend a legitimate edge rusher with Ealy and let MO and Leo attack for once as true "penetrating DTs". Use our second round picks on the best interior lineman possible (Billy Price or Frank Ragnow) and another offensive player and take Luke Falk with our 3rd round pick to learn behind cousins and develop depth at the QB position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mackman55 Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, Fantasy Island said: The only fly in the ointment is Mac. You send him to the local pizzeria to get a pizza, he comes back with a hamburger from McDonalds. He can't draft for @#$%. It's hard to defend Mac's drafts the last two years. Last year's draft was considered the deepest/talented CB group ever but with six pics in the first five rounds we landed NONE of the top 15 CB prospects. We also landed no other value positions, like QB's or OT's..... no THAT's hard to do! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beerfish Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 37 minutes ago, Mackman55 said: When the Jets pick in the 6-10 range come April 26th (my estimate) next year down in Texas they should select Baker Mayfield QB Oklahoma. Last Saturday"s "crotch grab from heaven" should guarantee he is still available when the Jets pick, with no move up necessary. The Jets get the best QB in the draft and their franchise QB for the next 10 years. This player is still being overrated by fans in my opinion. He'll be there for the jets when they pick if they want him but it will have nothing to do with the crotch grab. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastineau Lives Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 7 hours ago, T0mShane said: Can I get a title change to “content creator” and can me and batesman host a podcast called “Things that are real” where we have people call in and we passive aggressively mock them for doing so? Three. Man. Booth. Can you feel it, Shane? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastineau Lives Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 2 hours ago, Fantasy Island said: The only fly in the ointment is Mac. You send him to the local pizzeria to get a pizza, he comes back with a hamburger from McDonalds. He can't draft for @#$%. Two hamburgers. No fries. And he trades your coke for six glasses of luke warm water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barkus Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 2 hours ago, Mackman55 said: It's hard to defend Mac's drafts the last two years. Last year's draft was considered the deepest/talented CB group ever but with six pics in the first five rounds we landed NONE of the top 15 CB prospects. We also landed no other value positions, like QB's or OT's..... no THAT's hard to do! Good example of Mac thinking he’s smarter than everyone else. Deep cb draft and he drafts one guy coming off an ACL tear and another guy who is just learning the position. Add that to drafting hack who was terrible in college and looks like he can’t even play the game of football in the preseason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrazyCarl40 Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 23 minutes ago, Gastineau Lives said: Three. Man. Booth. Can you feel it, Shane? Hello. I am also in. I have a face for radio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnnyjet Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 By the end of this season we will be picking much higher than 12. I feel us giving the cross locker room little blue midgets a run. I see them taking darnold and us taking Rosen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DetroitRed Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 We can easily move to the top 3rd or 4th spot with a nice long losing streak.. keep hope alive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pcola Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 12 hours ago, DoubleU said: 49ers need lots of help. The Jets can offer two number 1s and two number 2s, or some other combination of draft picks, and move up to the number 2 pick in this years draft. It’s gonna take a heck of a lot more than that. Philly gave up 5 picks to move to 2 from 8. Plus SF can ransom the pick between NYG and Den. Get the same hall plus end up with Minkah Fitzpatrick or Chubb, who would instantly be their best player. No worries, if the Jets lose out they will be picking 5th. Then it might only cost us 3 #1s and 3 #2s to get to 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
varjet Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 36 minutes ago, Barkus said: Good example of Mac thinking he’s smarter than everyone else. Deep cb draft and he drafts one guy coming off an ACL tear and another guy who is just learning the position. Add that to drafting hack who was terrible in college and looks like he can’t even play the game of football in the preseason. Unfortunately, this is Mac's biggest flub. PFF stuck their neck out said he was undraftable (not even round 7) and did the analysis. To date, everything they observed and predicted in that report is 100% accurate. They hit it right on the head. Macc makes more than they do. It just seems like Mac drafts worried about what his Kiper and McShay grades are. He should listen to PFF. 1 minute ago, Pcola said: It’s gonna take a heck of a lot more than that. Philly gave up 5 picks to move to 2 from 8. Plus SF can ransom the pick between NYG and Den. Get the same hall plus end up with Minkah Fitzpatrick or Chubb, who would instantly be their best player. No worries, if the Jets lose out they will be picking 5th. Then it might only cost us 3 #1s and 3 #2s to get to 1. I just cannot see the Jets doing that. What did the Giants to trade for Eli? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pcola Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, varjet said: Unfortunately, this is Mac's biggest flub. PFF stuck their neck out said he was undraftable (not even round 7) and did the analysis. To date, everything they observed and predicted in that report is 100% accurate. They hit it right on the head. Macc makes more than they do. It just seems like Mac drafts worried about what his Kiper and McShay grades are. He should listen to PFF. I just cannot see the Jets doing that. What did the Giants to trade for Eli? Rivers, 2004 #3 And 2005 #1 & #5. Thats a different era now. QB is more critical now. Look at what LAR or Philly gave up last year. Now add how many teams are playing scrub QBs. AZ, Min, Den, NYJ, NYG, Cle, possibly Was. There are two elite prospects and a bunch of question marks. If you want Darnold or Rosen, it’s gonna cost you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fed Hill Jet Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 I think it's more interesting that almost half the league outright sucks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RESNewYork Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 If the NFL looks at Jackson like this writer, than Jackson will be gone but Mayfield may still be there. Which I feel really sucks. 1. Lamar Jackson, Louisville Stock Up Jackson's made an unassuming, methodical climb to the top spot. That's a strange sentence for a former Heisman winner. Last week, I touched on the amazing reality that Jackson's rushing ability was being overlooked this season and when projecting him to the NFL. This week, while watching Louisville dismantle Syracuse, I made a concerted effort to ignore his runs. How would I come away from a Jackson performance without the scrambling, read-option carries, and just plain ridiculous jukes in the open field? The answer: thoroughly impressed. Jackson is one refined quarterback prospect. I'm telling you. Way more often than not, he swiftly avoided pressure like it was white noise around him, then uncorked a rocket 20 or 30 yards downfield into the hands of a tightly covered receiver. Did that receiver catch the pass? Ehhh, maybe, maybe not. In the win over the Orange, Jackson made one or two inaccurate throws and a few short ho-hum passes into the flat. The rest of his attempts resulted in that "thoroughly impressed" reaction. Arm strength? Check. Pocket drifting? Check. Accuracy to all levels of the field? Check. Right now, Jackson is the best quarterback prospect in the 2018 class, and that's even without his running capabilities, which, you know, are reminiscent of Vick. Take away the sensational running ability and Jackson is still the draft's most complete QB prospect. USATSI 2. Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State Stock Down It seemed like this game was coming for Rudolph. The injured shoulder. Defenses taking away the deep ball. The worsening weather. Speaking of weather, it was a perfect storm for Rudolph in the stunning loss to Kansas State. He struggled mightily with accuracy and timing with his receivers, the latter of which shouldn't happen for a senior with a slew of veteran pass-catchers. He released a handful of interception-worthy passes, and two other throws were actually picked off. So was a crucial two-point conversion late. Rudolph's lack of arm strength was more apparent in the loss to the Wildcats because of his wayward accuracy. Things get ugly when a signal-caller is misfiring and his passes aren't getting to the intended target in a hurry. Although I'm not as convinced with his deep-ball touch anymore and now do think the arm-strength questions are valid, I still like his movement in the pocket and intermediate accuracy. The long reign for Rudolph at No. 1 comes to an end, as over the past month or so he's looked like a quarterback prospect who's taken a step back from a strong junior season, not a step forward. 3. Josh Rosen, UCLA Stock Up Rosen's team lost the Battle for the City of Angels -- did anyone call it that? Has more ring than the Battle for L.A. -- but he was the better quarterback. Rosen's awesomely hot and cold. When he's hot, playing quarterback looks easy. When he's cold, he looks like he's never played quarterback before. Yes, there are more "hot" moments than "cold" moments, which was the case against the Trojans. Look, the Bruins clearly have many flaws, mostly on defense. Rosen kept them in a game they had no business being in. Yet, one could say his bad end-zone interception was the difference. And there you have it. That's kind of the book on Rosen, not that he throws a game-deciding pick every game. He screams "Eli Manning" to me, and no, not the Eli Manning of today. The "pro-ready pocket passer" from Ole Miss in 2004 who was the first pick in the draft. The slight upgrade with Rosen in that comparison is a stronger arm and more mobility. Rosen outplayed Sam Darnold on Saturday. USATSI 4. Sam Darnold, USC Stock Steady Am I the only one who thinks Darnold blatantly needs one more year of schooling? He just seems "young" on the field with his decisions, at times crazed scrambling, and happy feet when pressure's mounting. However -- and this is a big "however" -- Darnold's coverage-reading abilities and arm are clearly far ahead of his feet, and definitely unusually outstanding for a redshirt sophomore. He wasn't tremendous against UCLA, and, really, he didn't need to be. I did see the typical three or four No. 1 overall pick passes through coverage and the "oh no" throws too. Darnold's a fiery competitor with a copious amount of natural talent who can make anticipation throws, a rarity for quarterbacks with his relative lack of experience. He could declare for the 2018 draft and ultimately be a good NFL quarterback. I just think another year of harnessing all of his tools at the collegiate level would likely make him the No. 1 overall pick in the 2019 draft and considerably more "ready" to be a high-end franchise signal-caller in the NFL. Then again, would he be concerned about coming back and not playing as well? Ehhh. Maybe. Darnold would likely be a first-round pick if he enters the 2018 draft, which would justifiably be a pretty enticing draw for him to declare in a few months. 5. Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma Stock Down, Slightly You aren't here for takes on the sideline gestures by Mayfield, so this sentence is all I'm writing on that topic for now. In apparently gusty conditions in Lawrence, Kansas, Mayfield had his least-impressive effort of the 2017 season. He was uncharacteristically erratic downfield, had trouble finding open receivers, and relied on wild improvisation behind the line of scrimmage more than usual. Weather conditions aren't easy to see on television at times, but the commentators did mention the wind more than once during the game. Still though, Mayfield relies on an extreme amount of yards-after-the-catch and is playing with, to me, the best supporting cast in the country, which makes it even more difficult to do something super complex in the first place -- predicting how well a college quarterback will transition to the NFL. https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2018-nfl-draft-qb-stock-watch-lamar-jackson-passes-mason-rudolph-for-top-spot/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetFaninMI Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 3 hours ago, varjet said: Unfortunately, this is Mac's biggest flub. PFF stuck their neck out said he was undraftable (not even round 7) and did the analysis. To date, everything they observed and predicted in that report is 100% accurate. They hit it right on the head. Macc makes more than they do. It just seems like Mac drafts worried about what his Kiper and McShay grades are. He should listen to PFF. I just cannot see the Jets doing that. What did the Giants to trade for Eli? Here's the PFF on Hack spot on as Varjet said: Why PFF doesn't have a draftable grade on Christian Hackenberg By Sam Monson • Apr 8, 2016 Penn State quarterback Christian Hackenberg is one of the most polarizing prospects in the 2016 NFL draft. There are evaluators who have stated that they believe Hackenberg should go in the second round of the draft. Still others have said that his performance on tape is worrying enough that he should drop further than the second tier of passers, but the tools are still clearly there for him to potentially be an NFL-caliber quarterback. I hold a different opinion: I don’t believe Christian Hackenberg should even be drafted. That seems like hyperbole, and it is not intended to come across as a slam against a player who is working hard for his shot to play in the NFL. But the truth is that instead of hyperbole it is actually an honest assessment backed up by three years of play-by-play grading, tape study and data. Here is why my analysis and that of the PFF team has led me to believe that Hackenberg is not a draftable prospect in this class: Inaccuracy There isn’t a more inaccurate quarterback prospect in this draft with a reasonable chance at being drafted. Hackenberg is inaccurate at every level of the field, on all throws and against all coverages. This season his completion percentage when adjusted for drops, spikes, etc. was 64.0 percent, which was 120th in the nation. In 2014, he was 105th. Every accuracy number you look at sees Hackenberg struggle, and the tape shows the same thing. Even when under no pressure at all this past season, he completed just 61.9 percent of his passes. That’s the same completion percentage Cardale Jones managed on all plays, not just pressure plays, and Jones is a player whose accuracy is seen as a negative. Hackenberg’s completion percentage under no pressure at all of 61.9 percent would only have ranked 44th in the nation, if it was his real completion percentage. Completion percentage can be affected by many things, but if you dive a little deeper and look specifically at his ball placement, things get even worse. Hackenberg completed 192 passes this past season, but when we charted ball location for quarterbacks in this draft class, 55 of those catches were badly located passes. He was only accurate on 48.1 percent of attempts when throwing to open receivers. By comparison, Cody Kessler was accurate on 73.2 percent of his attempts to open receivers, Carson Wentz was at 61.2 percent. Even Cardale Jones, our inaccuracy comp in this exercise, was 5 percent better when throwing to open guys. I have never seen a quarterback consistently miss as many wide receiver screens as Hackenberg. Receiver screens are supposed to be high-percentage plays. In college, the average receiver screen pass is only off-target on 4.75 percent of attempts. In the NFL that figure becomes 3.45 percent, and the worst mark any QB has posted over the past three seasons is Chad Henne, at 8.47 percent. Last season, Hackenberg was off-target on 15.8 percent of his receiver screen passes — around five times more inaccurate than the average NFL QB. The story only gets worse on passes 11 to 20 yards down the field. He is accurate in ball-location terms on just 27.5 percent of them (the best QBs in this class are up around 50 percent). From 21 to 30, yards he is down at 12.0 percent (with the best marks around 40 percent). Hackenberg is capable of occasionally brilliant passes, and every now and then, exceptional accuracy. But when looking at his entire body of work, our assessment is that he is far too inaccurate to play in the NFL. Decision-making All quarterbacks can be caught out, or baited, or somehow convinced to attempt a pass they shouldn’t, but at least an evaluator can usually work out where the play broke down and what tempted him into taking the shot. Hackenberg regularly has plays where the pass has little to no chance of succeeding, but he puts the ball in the air anyway. That is a fatal flaw for an NFL quarterback, as QBs need to be able to read what happens before and after the snap to put the ball in the right place. Sometimes Hackenberg can do exactly that, but far too often he appears to simply decide not to, and those plays lead to simple turnovers. PFF’s play-by-play grading scale works from minus-2 to plus-2 in 0.5 increments. Minus-1.5 and minus-2 throws are catastrophic plays that usually result in a turnover. Hackenberg has 37 of them over his college career, equivalent to a catastrophically bad pass on 3.1 percent of his attempts. Jared Goff, by contrast, threw one on 1.1 percent in 2015. Even Michigan State QB Connor Cook, whom we have noted throughout his draft evaluation for his bad habit of reckless throws, threw one on 1.5 percent — or less than half the rate of Hackenberg. Hackenberg regularly does not see defenders breaking on the ball or cutting underneath his intended receiver. Against Temple in the first game of this season, he missed a defensive end dropping straight under a quick slant and almost tossed him a pick-six. Last year against Indiana he tossed the ball straight to a defender who was cutting in front of his bubble screen and did throw a pick-six: Turning the ball over at the NFL level is the cardinal sin of quarterback play. Most top passers now have historically low interception and turnover rates. Hackenberg puts the ball in that kind of danger far too often, at a far lower level of competition. Controlling pressure Quarterbacks play a role in the rate at which they face pressure — it isn’t simply a function of the offensive line. This is important to keep in mind when evaluating Hackenberg. Many have cited Penn State’s poor pass protection as a reason for Hackenberg’s struggles, and to be clear, it’s not as though I thought he had the benefit of a great offensive line. But let’s look at the 2015 season opener against Temple as an example of how Hackenberg deserved some blame for the amount of pressure he was under. Hackenberg was under pressure on 17 of his 36 dropbacks in that game, but only seven of those pressures were charged to the offensive line. That means nearly 60 percent of the pressure he was under in that game was not surrendered by his O-line, and much of it was clear from before the snap. Temple regularly showed six rushers before the snap, came with all of them, and Hackenberg was surprised by the free rusher despite only having five men in the protection. Some might want to cut him a break for the free rusher the offense couldn’t pick up, but it’s his job to understand that it is coming from the pre-snap read and be prepared to get rid of the ball quickly. Don’t get me wrong: Hackenberg’s line was not good at Penn State, but it wasn’t the prohibitive collection of uniformed turnstyles that they’ve been made out to be, either. As a unit they surrendered 135 total pressures in 2015, which is bad, but 15 other teams managed worse, including Goff’s California Bears (154). 45 other offensive lines surrendered pressure at a greater rate than Hackenberg’s line last season. And in 2014, we charged Hackenberg with eight of the sacks he took, which is five more than any single lineman gave up. In fact, since he has been the quarterback, Hackenberg has been directly to blame for more sacks than any single lineman blocking for him, and that doesn’t even touch the ones he was indirectly at fault for by being unable to effectively diagnose the pressure looks he was presented with. Lack of upside Much of the positive buzz around Hackenberg as a prospect has to do with the fact that he looks the part of an NFL QB. But while Hackenberg can make every throw you can think of, and does have some beautiful passes in his tape, the frequency with which he is able to produce them is concerning. In 2015, Hackenberg produced a pass graded at plus-1 or higher (a stat we have taken to calling “Big-Time Throws,” much to my distress) on 2.68 percent of his attempts. 151 QBs were better than that, and only nine were worse. But what about 2013? One of the narratives around Hackenberg is that his play dropped off after an impressive true freshman campaign in 2013 — when Bill O’Brien was his head coach, prior to taking over the Houston Texans’ job, and his top target was Allen Robinson, now one of the league’s best young wide receivers for the Jaguars — due to a subpar supporting cast and poor fit with new Penn State head coach James Franklin. It’s certainly true that his raw numbers were more encouraging that season. Unfortunately for Hackenberg, when we went back and graded his 2013 campaign, the results were not good. His 2013 season grade was a minus-24.7, which would have ranked third from the bottom in this draft class for the 2015 season. Take a look at this table with a group of this year’s quarterbacks and their grades from the 2015 season. I have included each year of Hackenberg at the bottom. Goff leads the way in grading terms by some distance. Carson Wentz graded well, especially considering the time he missed through injury, but the bigger point is that nowhere on this list is there a prospect other than Hackenberg who graded negatively overall. Lest you think I’m just cherry-picking prospects to ensure that result, the only quarterback prospect in this draft class (other than Hackenberg) with any kind of pro prospects whatsoever to have a negative overall grade is Ohio State’s Cardale Jones, and he at least has the asterisk of only attempting 270 passes in his entire college career. When you factor in that Hackenberg was only a true freshman, then it probably is fair to say that the 2013 season was his best — but he still earned a lower grade in that season than any QB in this current draft class, and was greatly affected by the benefit of Robinson’s ability to either take routine catches to the house or go up and haul in questionable passes that were thrown as much to the defensive back as they were him. This pass is a good example, as it was thrown straight to a corner who had position over the top and leverage on the receiver, but simply misplayed the ball in the air. Robinson, on the other hand, went up and high-pointed the ball, bringing it in for a big gain. This was a pass that ended up looking very nice based on the result, but probably shouldn’t have been thrown in the first place — even to a receiver as talented as Robinson. Conclusion One of the few things left supporting Hackenberg’s draft stock is that he looks like an NFL quarterback. His arm is pretty good, and he ticks most of the measurable boxes, but that’s like a newly created Madden player before you have assigned all the performance attributes like accuracy and decision-making. At that point all you have is a player shell. While there is good to his game in small flashes, you have to overlook so much bad to see it that it simply isn’t enough. Tim Tebow made some nice throws, too, but it didn’t make him a starting NFL quarterback. Even the best of Hackenberg is an average, inaccurate passer with a few worrying qualities. In my opinion, his NFL ceiling is as a backup a team hopes it never has to play. There was a time when Hackenberg was largely seen as a first-round talent, and it’s taken three seasons of poor play for him to be moved down most draft boards to the Day 2 or Day 3 range. But after evaluating him on tape to go along with three seasons of play-by-play data, I can’t see the case for drafting him at all. 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Why PFF doesn't have a draftable grade on Christian Hackenberg By Sam Monson • Apr 8, 2016 Penn State quarterback Christian Hackenberg is one of the most polarizing prospects in the 2016 NFL draft. There are evaluators who have stated that they believe Hackenberg should go in the second round of the draft. Still others have said that his performance on tape is worrying enough that he should drop further than the second tier of passers, but the tools are still clearly there for him to potentially be an NFL-caliber quarterback. I hold a different opinion: I don’t believe Christian Hackenberg should even be drafted. That seems like hyperbole, and it is not intended to come across as a slam against a player who is working hard for his shot to play in the NFL. But the truth is that instead of hyperbole it is actually an honest assessment backed up by three years of play-by-play grading, tape study and data. Here is why my analysis and that of the PFF team has led me to believe that Hackenberg is not a draftable prospect in this class: Inaccuracy There isn’t a more inaccurate quarterback prospect in this draft with a reasonable chance at being drafted. Hackenberg is inaccurate at every level of the field, on all throws and against all coverages. This season his completion percentage when adjusted for drops, spikes, etc. was 64.0 percent, which was 120th in the nation. In 2014, he was 105th. Every accuracy number you look at sees Hackenberg struggle, and the tape shows the same thing. Even when under no pressure at all this past season, he completed just 61.9 percent of his passes. That’s the same completion percentage Cardale Jones managed on all plays, not just pressure plays, and Jones is a player whose accuracy is seen as a negative. Hackenberg’s completion percentage under no pressure at all of 61.9 percent would only have ranked 44th in the nation, if it was his real completion percentage. Completion percentage can be affected by many things, but if you dive a little deeper and look specifically at his ball placement, things get even worse. Hackenberg completed 192 passes this past season, but when we charted ball location for quarterbacks in this draft class, 55 of those catches were badly located passes. He was only accurate on 48.1 percent of attempts when throwing to open receivers. By comparison, Cody Kessler was accurate on 73.2 percent of his attempts to open receivers, Carson Wentz was at 61.2 percent. Even Cardale Jones, our inaccuracy comp in this exercise, was 5 percent better when throwing to open guys. I have never seen a quarterback consistently miss as many wide receiver screens as Hackenberg. Receiver screens are supposed to be high-percentage plays. In college, the average receiver screen pass is only off-target on 4.75 percent of attempts. In the NFL that figure becomes 3.45 percent, and the worst mark any QB has posted over the past three seasons is Chad Henne, at 8.47 percent. Last season, Hackenberg was off-target on 15.8 percent of his receiver screen passes — around five times more inaccurate than the average NFL QB. The story only gets worse on passes 11 to 20 yards down the field. He is accurate in ball-location terms on just 27.5 percent of them (the best QBs in this class are up around 50 percent). From 21 to 30, yards he is down at 12.0 percent (with the best marks around 40 percent). Hackenberg is capable of occasionally brilliant passes, and every now and then, exceptional accuracy. But when looking at his entire body of work, our assessment is that he is far too inaccurate to play in the NFL. Decision-making All quarterbacks can be caught out, or baited, or somehow convinced to attempt a pass they shouldn’t, but at least an evaluator can usually work out where the play broke down and what tempted him into taking the shot. Hackenberg regularly has plays where the pass has little to no chance of succeeding, but he puts the ball in the air anyway. That is a fatal flaw for an NFL quarterback, as QBs need to be able to read what happens before and after the snap to put the ball in the right place. Sometimes Hackenberg can do exactly that, but far too often he appears to simply decide not to, and those plays lead to simple turnovers. PFF’s play-by-play grading scale works from minus-2 to plus-2 in 0.5 increments. Minus-1.5 and minus-2 throws are catastrophic plays that usually result in a turnover. Hackenberg has 37 of them over his college career, equivalent to a catastrophically bad pass on 3.1 percent of his attempts. Jared Goff, by contrast, threw one on 1.1 percent in 2015. Even Michigan State QB Connor Cook, whom we have noted throughout his draft evaluation for his bad habit of reckless throws, threw one on 1.5 percent — or less than half the rate of Hackenberg. Hackenberg regularly does not see defenders breaking on the ball or cutting underneath his intended receiver. Against Temple in the first game of this season, he missed a defensive end dropping straight under a quick slant and almost tossed him a pick-six. Last year against Indiana he tossed the ball straight to a defender who was cutting in front of his bubble screen and did throw a pick-six: Turning the ball over at the NFL level is the cardinal sin of quarterback play. Most top passers now have historically low interception and turnover rates. Hackenberg puts the ball in that kind of danger far too often, at a far lower level of competition. Controlling pressure Quarterbacks play a role in the rate at which they face pressure — it isn’t simply a function of the offensive line. This is important to keep in mind when evaluating Hackenberg. Many have cited Penn State’s poor pass protection as a reason for Hackenberg’s struggles, and to be clear, it’s not as though I thought he had the benefit of a great offensive line. But let’s look at the 2015 season opener against Temple as an example of how Hackenberg deserved some blame for the amount of pressure he was under. Hackenberg was under pressure on 17 of his 36 dropbacks in that game, but only seven of those pressures were charged to the offensive line. That means nearly 60 percent of the pressure he was under in that game was not surrendered by his O-line, and much of it was clear from before the snap. Temple regularly showed six rushers before the snap, came with all of them, and Hackenberg was surprised by the free rusher despite only having five men in the protection. Some might want to cut him a break for the free rusher the offense couldn’t pick up, but it’s his job to understand that it is coming from the pre-snap read and be prepared to get rid of the ball quickly. Don’t get me wrong: Hackenberg’s line was not good at Penn State, but it wasn’t the prohibitive collection of uniformed turnstyles that they’ve been made out to be, either. As a unit they surrendered 135 total pressures in 2015, which is bad, but 15 other teams managed worse, including Goff’s California Bears (154). 45 other offensive lines surrendered pressure at a greater rate than Hackenberg’s line last season. And in 2014, we charged Hackenberg with eight of the sacks he took, which is five more than any single lineman gave up. In fact, since he has been the quarterback, Hackenberg has been directly to blame for more sacks than any single lineman blocking for him, and that doesn’t even touch the ones he was indirectly at fault for by being unable to effectively diagnose the pressure looks he was presented with. Lack of upside Much of the positive buzz around Hackenberg as a prospect has to do with the fact that he looks the part of an NFL QB. But while Hackenberg can make every throw you can think of, and does have some beautiful passes in his tape, the frequency with which he is able to produce them is concerning. In 2015, Hackenberg produced a pass graded at plus-1 or higher (a stat we have taken to calling “Big-Time Throws,” much to my distress) on 2.68 percent of his attempts. 151 QBs were better than that, and only nine were worse. But what about 2013? One of the narratives around Hackenberg is that his play dropped off after an impressive true freshman campaign in 2013 — when Bill O’Brien was his head coach, prior to taking over the Houston Texans’ job, and his top target was Allen Robinson, now one of the league’s best young wide receivers for the Jaguars — due to a subpar supporting cast and poor fit with new Penn State head coach James Franklin. It’s certainly true that his raw numbers were more encouraging that season. Unfortunately for Hackenberg, when we went back and graded his 2013 campaign, the results were not good. His 2013 season grade was a minus-24.7, which would have ranked third from the bottom in this draft class for the 2015 season. Take a look at this table with a group of this year’s quarterbacks and their grades from the 2015 season. I have included each year of Hackenberg at the bottom. Goff leads the way in grading terms by some distance. Carson Wentz graded well, especially considering the time he missed through injury, but the bigger point is that nowhere on this list is there a prospect other than Hackenberg who graded negatively overall. Lest you think I’m just cherry-picking prospects to ensure that result, the only quarterback prospect in this draft class (other than Hackenberg) with any kind of pro prospects whatsoever to have a negative overall grade is Ohio State’s Cardale Jones, and he at least has the asterisk of only attempting 270 passes in his entire college career. When you factor in that Hackenberg was only a true freshman, then it probably is fair to say that the 2013 season was his best — but he still earned a lower grade in that season than any QB in this current draft class, and was greatly affected by the benefit of Robinson’s ability to either take routine catches to the house or go up and haul in questionable passes that were thrown as much to the defensive back as they were him. This pass is a good example, as it was thrown straight to a corner who had position over the top and leverage on the receiver, but simply misplayed the ball in the air. Robinson, on the other hand, went up and high-pointed the ball, bringing it in for a big gain. This was a pass that ended up looking very nice based on the result, but probably shouldn’t have been thrown in the first place — even to a receiver as talented as Robinson. Conclusion One of the few things left supporting Hackenberg’s draft stock is that he looks like an NFL quarterback. His arm is pretty good, and he ticks most of the measurable boxes, but that’s like a newly created Madden player before you have assigned all the performance attributes like accuracy and decision-making. At that point all you have is a player shell. While there is good to his game in small flashes, you have to overlook so much bad to see it that it simply isn’t enough. Tim Tebow made some nice throws, too, but it didn’t make him a starting NFL quarterback. Even the best of Hackenberg is an average, inaccurate passer with a few worrying qualities. In my opinion, his NFL ceiling is as a backup a team hopes it never has to play. There was a time when Hackenberg was largely seen as a first-round talent, and it’s taken three seasons of poor play for him to be moved down most draft boards to the Day 2 or Day 3 range. But after evaluating him on tape to go along with three seasons of play-by-play data, I can’t see the case for drafting him at all.
Mogglez Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 14 hours ago, Charlie Brown said: Here is a BIG SECRET.... The fans may have given up on Hack but the Jets haven't; not yet at least...... I can say with a ton of certainty that they have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Harris Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 36 minutes ago, Mogglez said: I can say with a ton of certainty that they have. I would certainly hope so... but this IS the most clueless front office out there... possibly... Seriously... These message boards have an infinitely higher draft percentage than what the past 3-4 jets regimes??? How pathetic is this?! It doesn't help at all that the owner is a Big Pharma stooge ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philc1 Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 8 hours ago, JetFaninMI said: Here's the PFF on Hack spot on as Varjet said: Why PFF doesn't have a draftable grade on Christian Hackenberg By Sam Monson • Apr 8, 2016 Penn State quarterback Christian Hackenberg is one of the most polarizing prospects in the 2016 NFL draft. There are evaluators who have stated that they believe Hackenberg should go in the second round of the draft. Still others have said that his performance on tape is worrying enough that he should drop further than the second tier of passers, but the tools are still clearly there for him to potentially be an NFL-caliber quarterback. I hold a different opinion: I don’t believe Christian Hackenberg should even be drafted. That seems like hyperbole, and it is not intended to come across as a slam against a player who is working hard for his shot to play in the NFL. But the truth is that instead of hyperbole it is actually an honest assessment backed up by three years of play-by-play grading, tape study and data. Here is why my analysis and that of the PFF team has led me to believe that Hackenberg is not a draftable prospect in this class: Inaccuracy There isn’t a more inaccurate quarterback prospect in this draft with a reasonable chance at being drafted. Hackenberg is inaccurate at every level of the field, on all throws and against all coverages. This season his completion percentage when adjusted for drops, spikes, etc. was 64.0 percent, which was 120th in the nation. In 2014, he was 105th. Every accuracy number you look at sees Hackenberg struggle, and the tape shows the same thing. Even when under no pressure at all this past season, he completed just 61.9 percent of his passes. That’s the same completion percentage Cardale Jones managed on all plays, not just pressure plays, and Jones is a player whose accuracy is seen as a negative. Hackenberg’s completion percentage under no pressure at all of 61.9 percent would only have ranked 44th in the nation, if it was his real completion percentage. Completion percentage can be affected by many things, but if you dive a little deeper and look specifically at his ball placement, things get even worse. Hackenberg completed 192 passes this past season, but when we charted ball location for quarterbacks in this draft class, 55 of those catches were badly located passes. He was only accurate on 48.1 percent of attempts when throwing to open receivers. By comparison, Cody Kessler was accurate on 73.2 percent of his attempts to open receivers, Carson Wentz was at 61.2 percent. Even Cardale Jones, our inaccuracy comp in this exercise, was 5 percent better when throwing to open guys. I have never seen a quarterback consistently miss as many wide receiver screens as Hackenberg. Receiver screens are supposed to be high-percentage plays. In college, the average receiver screen pass is only off-target on 4.75 percent of attempts. In the NFL that figure becomes 3.45 percent, and the worst mark any QB has posted over the past three seasons is Chad Henne, at 8.47 percent. Last season, Hackenberg was off-target on 15.8 percent of his receiver screen passes — around five times more inaccurate than the average NFL QB. The story only gets worse on passes 11 to 20 yards down the field. He is accurate in ball-location terms on just 27.5 percent of them (the best QBs in this class are up around 50 percent). From 21 to 30, yards he is down at 12.0 percent (with the best marks around 40 percent). Hackenberg is capable of occasionally brilliant passes, and every now and then, exceptional accuracy. But when looking at his entire body of work, our assessment is that he is far too inaccurate to play in the NFL. Decision-making All quarterbacks can be caught out, or baited, or somehow convinced to attempt a pass they shouldn’t, but at least an evaluator can usually work out where the play broke down and what tempted him into taking the shot. Hackenberg regularly has plays where the pass has little to no chance of succeeding, but he puts the ball in the air anyway. That is a fatal flaw for an NFL quarterback, as QBs need to be able to read what happens before and after the snap to put the ball in the right place. Sometimes Hackenberg can do exactly that, but far too often he appears to simply decide not to, and those plays lead to simple turnovers. PFF’s play-by-play grading scale works from minus-2 to plus-2 in 0.5 increments. Minus-1.5 and minus-2 throws are catastrophic plays that usually result in a turnover. Hackenberg has 37 of them over his college career, equivalent to a catastrophically bad pass on 3.1 percent of his attempts. Jared Goff, by contrast, threw one on 1.1 percent in 2015. Even Michigan State QB Connor Cook, whom we have noted throughout his draft evaluation for his bad habit of reckless throws, threw one on 1.5 percent — or less than half the rate of Hackenberg. Hackenberg regularly does not see defenders breaking on the ball or cutting underneath his intended receiver. Against Temple in the first game of this season, he missed a defensive end dropping straight under a quick slant and almost tossed him a pick-six. Last year against Indiana he tossed the ball straight to a defender who was cutting in front of his bubble screen and did throw a pick-six: Turning the ball over at the NFL level is the cardinal sin of quarterback play. Most top passers now have historically low interception and turnover rates. Hackenberg puts the ball in that kind of danger far too often, at a far lower level of competition. Controlling pressure Quarterbacks play a role in the rate at which they face pressure — it isn’t simply a function of the offensive line. This is important to keep in mind when evaluating Hackenberg. Many have cited Penn State’s poor pass protection as a reason for Hackenberg’s struggles, and to be clear, it’s not as though I thought he had the benefit of a great offensive line. But let’s look at the 2015 season opener against Temple as an example of how Hackenberg deserved some blame for the amount of pressure he was under. Hackenberg was under pressure on 17 of his 36 dropbacks in that game, but only seven of those pressures were charged to the offensive line. That means nearly 60 percent of the pressure he was under in that game was not surrendered by his O-line, and much of it was clear from before the snap. Temple regularly showed six rushers before the snap, came with all of them, and Hackenberg was surprised by the free rusher despite only having five men in the protection. Some might want to cut him a break for the free rusher the offense couldn’t pick up, but it’s his job to understand that it is coming from the pre-snap read and be prepared to get rid of the ball quickly. Don’t get me wrong: Hackenberg’s line was not good at Penn State, but it wasn’t the prohibitive collection of uniformed turnstyles that they’ve been made out to be, either. As a unit they surrendered 135 total pressures in 2015, which is bad, but 15 other teams managed worse, including Goff’s California Bears (154). 45 other offensive lines surrendered pressure at a greater rate than Hackenberg’s line last season. And in 2014, we charged Hackenberg with eight of the sacks he took, which is five more than any single lineman gave up. In fact, since he has been the quarterback, Hackenberg has been directly to blame for more sacks than any single lineman blocking for him, and that doesn’t even touch the ones he was indirectly at fault for by being unable to effectively diagnose the pressure looks he was presented with. Lack of upside Much of the positive buzz around Hackenberg as a prospect has to do with the fact that he looks the part of an NFL QB. But while Hackenberg can make every throw you can think of, and does have some beautiful passes in his tape, the frequency with which he is able to produce them is concerning. In 2015, Hackenberg produced a pass graded at plus-1 or higher (a stat we have taken to calling “Big-Time Throws,” much to my distress) on 2.68 percent of his attempts. 151 QBs were better than that, and only nine were worse. But what about 2013? One of the narratives around Hackenberg is that his play dropped off after an impressive true freshman campaign in 2013 — when Bill O’Brien was his head coach, prior to taking over the Houston Texans’ job, and his top target was Allen Robinson, now one of the league’s best young wide receivers for the Jaguars — due to a subpar supporting cast and poor fit with new Penn State head coach James Franklin. It’s certainly true that his raw numbers were more encouraging that season. Unfortunately for Hackenberg, when we went back and graded his 2013 campaign, the results were not good. His 2013 season grade was a minus-24.7, which would have ranked third from the bottom in this draft class for the 2015 season. Take a look at this table with a group of this year’s quarterbacks and their grades from the 2015 season. I have included each year of Hackenberg at the bottom. Goff leads the way in grading terms by some distance. Carson Wentz graded well, especially considering the time he missed through injury, but the bigger point is that nowhere on this list is there a prospect other than Hackenberg who graded negatively overall. Lest you think I’m just cherry-picking prospects to ensure that result, the only quarterback prospect in this draft class (other than Hackenberg) with any kind of pro prospects whatsoever to have a negative overall grade is Ohio State’s Cardale Jones, and he at least has the asterisk of only attempting 270 passes in his entire college career. When you factor in that Hackenberg was only a true freshman, then it probably is fair to say that the 2013 season was his best — but he still earned a lower grade in that season than any QB in this current draft class, and was greatly affected by the benefit of Robinson’s ability to either take routine catches to the house or go up and haul in questionable passes that were thrown as much to the defensive back as they were him. This pass is a good example, as it was thrown straight to a corner who had position over the top and leverage on the receiver, but simply misplayed the ball in the air. Robinson, on the other hand, went up and high-pointed the ball, bringing it in for a big gain. This was a pass that ended up looking very nice based on the result, but probably shouldn’t have been thrown in the first place — even to a receiver as talented as Robinson. Conclusion One of the few things left supporting Hackenberg’s draft stock is that he looks like an NFL quarterback. His arm is pretty good, and he ticks most of the measurable boxes, but that’s like a newly created Madden player before you have assigned all the performance attributes like accuracy and decision-making. At that point all you have is a player shell. While there is good to his game in small flashes, you have to overlook so much bad to see it that it simply isn’t enough. Tim Tebow made some nice throws, too, but it didn’t make him a starting NFL quarterback. Even the best of Hackenberg is an average, inaccurate passer with a few worrying qualities. In my opinion, his NFL ceiling is as a backup a team hopes it never has to play. There was a time when Hackenberg was largely seen as a first-round talent, and it’s taken three seasons of poor play for him to be moved down most draft boards to the Day 2 or Day 3 range. But after evaluating him on tape to go along with three seasons of play-by-play data, I can’t see the case for drafting him at all. Extend Macc! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Why PFF doesn't have a draftable grade on Christian Hackenberg By Sam Monson • Apr 8, 2016 Penn State quarterback Christian Hackenberg is one of the most polarizing prospects in the 2016 NFL draft. There are evaluators who have stated that they believe Hackenberg should go in the second round of the draft. Still others have said that his performance on tape is worrying enough that he should drop further than the second tier of passers, but the tools are still clearly there for him to potentially be an NFL-caliber quarterback. I hold a different opinion: I don’t believe Christian Hackenberg should even be drafted. That seems like hyperbole, and it is not intended to come across as a slam against a player who is working hard for his shot to play in the NFL. But the truth is that instead of hyperbole it is actually an honest assessment backed up by three years of play-by-play grading, tape study and data. Here is why my analysis and that of the PFF team has led me to believe that Hackenberg is not a draftable prospect in this class: Inaccuracy There isn’t a more inaccurate quarterback prospect in this draft with a reasonable chance at being drafted. Hackenberg is inaccurate at every level of the field, on all throws and against all coverages. This season his completion percentage when adjusted for drops, spikes, etc. was 64.0 percent, which was 120th in the nation. In 2014, he was 105th. Every accuracy number you look at sees Hackenberg struggle, and the tape shows the same thing. Even when under no pressure at all this past season, he completed just 61.9 percent of his passes. That’s the same completion percentage Cardale Jones managed on all plays, not just pressure plays, and Jones is a player whose accuracy is seen as a negative. Hackenberg’s completion percentage under no pressure at all of 61.9 percent would only have ranked 44th in the nation, if it was his real completion percentage. Completion percentage can be affected by many things, but if you dive a little deeper and look specifically at his ball placement, things get even worse. Hackenberg completed 192 passes this past season, but when we charted ball location for quarterbacks in this draft class, 55 of those catches were badly located passes. He was only accurate on 48.1 percent of attempts when throwing to open receivers. By comparison, Cody Kessler was accurate on 73.2 percent of his attempts to open receivers, Carson Wentz was at 61.2 percent. Even Cardale Jones, our inaccuracy comp in this exercise, was 5 percent better when throwing to open guys. I have never seen a quarterback consistently miss as many wide receiver screens as Hackenberg. Receiver screens are supposed to be high-percentage plays. In college, the average receiver screen pass is only off-target on 4.75 percent of attempts. In the NFL that figure becomes 3.45 percent, and the worst mark any QB has posted over the past three seasons is Chad Henne, at 8.47 percent. Last season, Hackenberg was off-target on 15.8 percent of his receiver screen passes — around five times more inaccurate than the average NFL QB. The story only gets worse on passes 11 to 20 yards down the field. He is accurate in ball-location terms on just 27.5 percent of them (the best QBs in this class are up around 50 percent). From 21 to 30, yards he is down at 12.0 percent (with the best marks around 40 percent). Hackenberg is capable of occasionally brilliant passes, and every now and then, exceptional accuracy. But when looking at his entire body of work, our assessment is that he is far too inaccurate to play in the NFL. Decision-making All quarterbacks can be caught out, or baited, or somehow convinced to attempt a pass they shouldn’t, but at least an evaluator can usually work out where the play broke down and what tempted him into taking the shot. Hackenberg regularly has plays where the pass has little to no chance of succeeding, but he puts the ball in the air anyway. That is a fatal flaw for an NFL quarterback, as QBs need to be able to read what happens before and after the snap to put the ball in the right place. Sometimes Hackenberg can do exactly that, but far too often he appears to simply decide not to, and those plays lead to simple turnovers. PFF’s play-by-play grading scale works from minus-2 to plus-2 in 0.5 increments. Minus-1.5 and minus-2 throws are catastrophic plays that usually result in a turnover. Hackenberg has 37 of them over his college career, equivalent to a catastrophically bad pass on 3.1 percent of his attempts. Jared Goff, by contrast, threw one on 1.1 percent in 2015. Even Michigan State QB Connor Cook, whom we have noted throughout his draft evaluation for his bad habit of reckless throws, threw one on 1.5 percent — or less than half the rate of Hackenberg. Hackenberg regularly does not see defenders breaking on the ball or cutting underneath his intended receiver. Against Temple in the first game of this season, he missed a defensive end dropping straight under a quick slant and almost tossed him a pick-six. Last year against Indiana he tossed the ball straight to a defender who was cutting in front of his bubble screen and did throw a pick-six: Turning the ball over at the NFL level is the cardinal sin of quarterback play. Most top passers now have historically low interception and turnover rates. Hackenberg puts the ball in that kind of danger far too often, at a far lower level of competition. Controlling pressure Quarterbacks play a role in the rate at which they face pressure — it isn’t simply a function of the offensive line. This is important to keep in mind when evaluating Hackenberg. Many have cited Penn State’s poor pass protection as a reason for Hackenberg’s struggles, and to be clear, it’s not as though I thought he had the benefit of a great offensive line. But let’s look at the 2015 season opener against Temple as an example of how Hackenberg deserved some blame for the amount of pressure he was under. Hackenberg was under pressure on 17 of his 36 dropbacks in that game, but only seven of those pressures were charged to the offensive line. That means nearly 60 percent of the pressure he was under in that game was not surrendered by his O-line, and much of it was clear from before the snap. Temple regularly showed six rushers before the snap, came with all of them, and Hackenberg was surprised by the free rusher despite only having five men in the protection. Some might want to cut him a break for the free rusher the offense couldn’t pick up, but it’s his job to understand that it is coming from the pre-snap read and be prepared to get rid of the ball quickly. Don’t get me wrong: Hackenberg’s line was not good at Penn State, but it wasn’t the prohibitive collection of uniformed turnstyles that they’ve been made out to be, either. As a unit they surrendered 135 total pressures in 2015, which is bad, but 15 other teams managed worse, including Goff’s California Bears (154). 45 other offensive lines surrendered pressure at a greater rate than Hackenberg’s line last season. And in 2014, we charged Hackenberg with eight of the sacks he took, which is five more than any single lineman gave up. In fact, since he has been the quarterback, Hackenberg has been directly to blame for more sacks than any single lineman blocking for him, and that doesn’t even touch the ones he was indirectly at fault for by being unable to effectively diagnose the pressure looks he was presented with. Lack of upside Much of the positive buzz around Hackenberg as a prospect has to do with the fact that he looks the part of an NFL QB. But while Hackenberg can make every throw you can think of, and does have some beautiful passes in his tape, the frequency with which he is able to produce them is concerning. In 2015, Hackenberg produced a pass graded at plus-1 or higher (a stat we have taken to calling “Big-Time Throws,” much to my distress) on 2.68 percent of his attempts. 151 QBs were better than that, and only nine were worse. But what about 2013? One of the narratives around Hackenberg is that his play dropped off after an impressive true freshman campaign in 2013 — when Bill O’Brien was his head coach, prior to taking over the Houston Texans’ job, and his top target was Allen Robinson, now one of the league’s best young wide receivers for the Jaguars — due to a subpar supporting cast and poor fit with new Penn State head coach James Franklin. It’s certainly true that his raw numbers were more encouraging that season. Unfortunately for Hackenberg, when we went back and graded his 2013 campaign, the results were not good. His 2013 season grade was a minus-24.7, which would have ranked third from the bottom in this draft class for the 2015 season. Take a look at this table with a group of this year’s quarterbacks and their grades from the 2015 season. I have included each year of Hackenberg at the bottom. Goff leads the way in grading terms by some distance. Carson Wentz graded well, especially considering the time he missed through injury, but the bigger point is that nowhere on this list is there a prospect other than Hackenberg who graded negatively overall. Lest you think I’m just cherry-picking prospects to ensure that result, the only quarterback prospect in this draft class (other than Hackenberg) with any kind of pro prospects whatsoever to have a negative overall grade is Ohio State’s Cardale Jones, and he at least has the asterisk of only attempting 270 passes in his entire college career. When you factor in that Hackenberg was only a true freshman, then it probably is fair to say that the 2013 season was his best — but he still earned a lower grade in that season than any QB in this current draft class, and was greatly affected by the benefit of Robinson’s ability to either take routine catches to the house or go up and haul in questionable passes that were thrown as much to the defensive back as they were him. This pass is a good example, as it was thrown straight to a corner who had position over the top and leverage on the receiver, but simply misplayed the ball in the air. Robinson, on the other hand, went up and high-pointed the ball, bringing it in for a big gain. This was a pass that ended up looking very nice based on the result, but probably shouldn’t have been thrown in the first place — even to a receiver as talented as Robinson. Conclusion One of the few things left supporting Hackenberg’s draft stock is that he looks like an NFL quarterback. His arm is pretty good, and he ticks most of the measurable boxes, but that’s like a newly created Madden player before you have assigned all the performance attributes like accuracy and decision-making. At that point all you have is a player shell. While there is good to his game in small flashes, you have to overlook so much bad to see it that it simply isn’t enough. Tim Tebow made some nice throws, too, but it didn’t make him a starting NFL quarterback. Even the best of Hackenberg is an average, inaccurate passer with a few worrying qualities. In my opinion, his NFL ceiling is as a backup a team hopes it never has to play. There was a time when Hackenberg was largely seen as a first-round talent, and it’s taken three seasons of poor play for him to be moved down most draft boards to the Day 2 or Day 3 range. But after evaluating him on tape to go along with three seasons of play-by-play data, I can’t see the case for drafting him at all.
Warfish Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 Quote One of the few things left supporting Hackenberg’s draft stock is that he looks like an NFL quarterback. His arm is pretty good, and he ticks most of the measurable boxes I loathe primary evaluation being via "measurables". It's a loser almost every time, it seems. Gholston had all the measurables too. You simply have to ignore every other piece of evidence to (Over) draft the "measurables" players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T0mShane Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 13 hours ago, Gastineau Lives said: Three. Man. Booth. Can you feel it, Shane? SIGN ME UP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BCJet Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 14 hours ago, Barkus said: Good example of Mac thinking he’s smarter than everyone else. Deep cb draft and he drafts one guy coming off an ACL tear and another guy who is just learning the position. Add that to drafting hack who was terrible in college and looks like he can’t even play the game of football in the preseason. How are these CBs doing that we should have picked? Kevin King is getting roasted in GB, Teez Tabor and Quincy Wilson have 3 tackles on the year each, and Chidobe Awuzie has 6 tackles - those are the guys you are complaining about when instead Mac took Marcus Maye who is having a great year? There are things that Mac deserves to criticized for, but questioning him for not taking a CB instead of Maye isnt one of those things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlie Brown Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 6 hours ago, Mogglez said: I can say with a ton of certainty that they have. My feeling is if they have, then why on EARTH are both of these guys on the team???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philc1 Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 23 hours ago, Saul Goodman said: I think that the price of moving up is going to be especially high in this April's draft. Two blue chip QB prospects, and teams are seeing that a trade up such as what Philly did for Wentz was well worth it. Cleveland and San Fran can and will demand a huge package of picks. I'd try to sign Cousins and then go offensive BAP with our 1st. The cost of trading into the top 3 picks will be HUGE The dream of Darnold or Rosen died with our fluke wins over Miami and Jax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetFanatic Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 On 11/20/2017 at 11:05 AM, peebag said: It doesn't matter where the Jets pick, so many holes to fill that next season will mirror this one. 2019 - that's our window fellow babies! I wouldn't cross out next season. Keep in mind they have 80 million in cap space. They can sign 2 top tier players while resigning our own players. They can realistically sign a CB and a LT while being able to draft a QB/OLB/CB/C with our first 4 picks with us picking twice in the 2nd round. That could potentially really improve the team to where they would be very competitive. Especially if the AFC is dog poo again like this year. It could all be turned around by next season. They could also sign a big time QB and LT and draft a CB/OLB/C/MLB or Olineman and be very competitive with that team on the field. Lots of options. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philc1 Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 8 minutes ago, JetFanatic said: I wouldn't cross out next season. Keep in mind they have 80 million in cap space. They can sign 2 top tier players while resigning our own players. They can realistically sign a CB and a LT while being able to draft a QB/OLB/CB/C with our first 4 picks with us picking twice in the 2nd round. That could potentially really improve the team to where they would be very competitive. Especially if the AFC is dog poo again like this year. It could all be turned around by next season. They could also sign a big time QB and LT and draft a CB/OLB/C/MLB or Olineman and be very competitive with that team on the field. Lots of options. We are not going to have a qb next year. It will be McCown or another veteran stopgap like Alex Smith whose salary btw will be eating a nice chunk of of that $80 million cap room 2018 will be just as bad as ‘16 and ‘17 just this next sucky season the media won’t be patting us on the backs for going 5-11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxman Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 27 minutes ago, Philc1 said: We are not going to have a qb next year. It will be McCown or another veteran stopgap like Alex Smith whose salary btw will be eating a nice chunk of of that $80 million cap room 2018 will be just as bad as ‘16 and ‘17 just this next sucky season the media won’t be patting us on the backs for going 5-11 Absolutely no way this happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWhofans Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 1 hour ago, Philc1 said: We are not going to have a qb next year. It will be McCown or another veteran stopgap like Alex Smith whose salary btw will be eating a nice chunk of of that $80 million cap room 2018 will be just as bad as ‘16 and ‘17 just this next sucky season the media won’t be patting us on the backs for going 5-11 I don’t see it. Macc is not scouting QBs for nothin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beerfish Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 We will for sure draft a QB next year. If we can't pull off a trade up to get one of the best guys I still say we will use both 2nd rounders to trade back into the 1st to get a guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
varjet Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 7 hours ago, BCJet said: How are these CBs doing that we should have picked? Kevin King is getting roasted in GB, Teez Tabor and Quincy Wilson have 3 tackles on the year each, and Chidobe Awuzie has 6 tackles - those are the guys you are complaining about when instead Mac took Marcus Maye who is having a great year? There are things that Mac deserves to criticized for, but questioning him for not taking a CB instead of Maye isnt one of those things. Adams was the solid safe pick. Lattimore gets injured too much. We passed on Watson but so did everyone else-we did not have the system for him. Maye was a fantastic pick. McQuire was a solid pick. The CBs could be ok in the 7th round. I hate the rounds 3-5 picks. That is where a GM makes his name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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