All Zach Wilson throws vs Jax

[rtnelson]

The only WR/TE that caught a pass yesterday that we know will be on an active roster next season is Berrios.  Say what you want about Jacksonville being terrible, but in reality we legit had a practice squad receiving corps on the field.

But we "ran the ball to hide Zach".  The hilarious thing is neither side is declaring boom or bust, but choose to focus on either negative or positive.  It's almost as if your opinion on Zach is a personality test question.

[SomebodytoAnybody47]

50 minutes ago, JiFapono said:

Just watched the video, like usual, there was good and bad.  Before I share my thoughts, I will say, it's really strange what some of all you focus on, it's like nobody even tries to see the trees through the forest, you're staring at one tree and doing everything you can to hope it grows but not even taking into account what's going in the forest. 

The thing that stood out to me the most watching that "tape" is that the Jacksonville Jaguars are absolutely terrible.  Like, holy sh*t, terrible.  I would venture to say, Zach will never play a worse Football team for the rest of his career.  That game, by all measures, was considered a walk in the park for an NFL game and it's actually quite sad, this was an actual competitive Football game that came down to the last seconds to decide a winner. 

I know the Jets were short-handed but to have nearly 300 yards on the ground and score 2 TD's on offense, is pathetic.  Let's be honest with ourselves.  That was some of the worst redzone Football, I've ever seen out of our offense.  It took a gimmicky eligible Tackle on 4th down, to score the only RZ TD of the day.  They were 1 for 4 in the redzone and he was wide the **** open, and the ball came late, making an easy TD play become an 8 out of 10 on the difficulty factor.  The Jets offense was 4 of 12 on 3rd down.  4 of 12, vs. a bunch of street FA's, literally.  2 TD's on 9 drives.  On average, the Jags give up 250 yards passing per game at 7.6 ypc.  The Jets had 100 yards at 4.5  ypc.

So, that's like not very good.  However, clutch plays on 4th down, big 3rd down conversion late in the game, better touch and accuracy and more willing to run with the worst cast of characters he's had all year are definitely "positives" if you're looking for encouragement.  How much stock do you put into the performance of a QB giving you street level FA type of outing vs. the worst team in Football?  I'm not sure but it's good enough, IMO, to put this game down a positive for Zach but that's probably got more to do with how low the bar is for him, vs. how good he actually played.

I’m not a fan of Lefluers 2 runs up the middle to start off these red zone visits. We’re not a power run team here. 

[Peace Frog]

12 minutes ago, JiFapono said:

To be fair, I didnt criticize his effort, I just pointed a few things out about the level of his competition.  In fact, I said he played well enough to call this game a positive and I mentioned the fact that he had this positive game with his worst cast of characters to date.

  

 

I will allow this. 

[JustInFudge]

7 minutes ago, Zachtomims47 said:

I’m not a fan of Lefluers 2 runs up the middle to start off these red zone visits. We’re not a power run team here. 

Fair but they were running the ball well, so I can understand it...and they were going 4 downs ever time as well but yes, maybe a little play action on 1st occasionally could help. 

[JustInFudge]

3 minutes ago, Peace Frog said:

I will allow this. 

[Barry McCockinner]

20 minutes ago, Zachtomims47 said:

I’m not a fan of Lefluers 2 runs up the middle to start off these red zone visits. We’re not a power run team here. 

maybe not but we rushed for more yards yesterday than any other NFL team has in a single game on the year.

[SomebodytoAnybody47]

Just now, Barry McCockinner said:

maybe not but we rushed for more yards yesterday than any other NFL team has in a single game on the year.

I understand they were running well but it’s more condensed down there. Gimme something a little different on second down at least. 

[Mogglez]

25 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

There's no magic formula to determine if a QB is going to be good. You are acting like he must be at some level within 20-25 games or he turns into a pumpkin. 

We need him to be better, no doubt. Fitting into some arbitrary stat line within 20-25 games doesn't mean anything. You are also really latching onto that whole first 9 games analysis as if it's the holy grail, which is just plain weird - dude.

Every QB is different and progresses differently. The progression is usually slower for QB's who end up on bad teams. Obviously there's a time table where you need to evaluate with the rookie cap deal so it's not like we have forever here but your rush to cut bait and declare him the worst QB evah seems premature when the guy is showing clear signs of progression on a pretty bad team with a crapload of injuries.

I don't think anyone is claiming he had a great game. It's OK to just see some progress.

Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson spit in the face of ’80 when he said the same things about them in 2018.  I’ll give the guy credit.  He believes what he believes and he sticks to it, flawed arguments and history be damned.

You’re absolutely right, there is no formula.  You take kids with talent, and hope they put it together after 2-3 years.  Josh Allen’s development, more than anyone, should tell you that making any sort of proclamation on a QB after ~12 games (11 in Wilson’s case) is utterly ridiculous, especially when they are on an awful team that has been absolutely decimated by injuries and COVID.  Just because the past guys didn’t work out doesn’t mean you starting prematurely abandoning prospects.  

[Mogglez]

3 hours ago, T0mShane said:

This week it’s Keelan Cole. Last week it was Connor McDermott. The week before it was Denzel Mims. But do tell me more about moving goalposts.

If the hill you want to die on is McDermott, Mims, and Cole are all good players and they’re just being held back by Zach Wilson, there’s nothing more that needs to be said.

Also, no, that wouldn’t be moving goal posts.  Last week Conor McDermott was an absolute liability for both the passing game, the running game, and that was discussed because it was relevant to how the offense performed.  Mims has been a failure since the spring, and that has been addressed whenever he makes a mistake that shows why he’s been benched all year.  Cole has been a failure every time he was asked to step up, such as this week, and now we’re addressing that.  What you said had absolutely nothing to do with the fact that Keelan Cole has sucked all year, regardless of who was under center, it was just a snarky dig at Wilson made to ignore tangible stats that say “Hey, it doesn’t matter who is throwing to Cole, he’s just not a starter in this league.”

[Jetsfan80]

2 hours ago, tfine said:

 

And Darnold was better than Josh Allen with 2 games left his rookie year….we all know how that turned out. Seems to me you and other Zach naysayers on the board seem to be married to a blueprint on how rookie QBs are supposed to progress…..truth is every QB is different…you have the Justin Herbert’s who light the world on fire out of the gate..you have the Josh Allen’s that start off like crap and get better…at this point we don’t really know..



Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

 

Darnold had a better year throwing than Allen as rookies, yes, but Allen’s rushing ability and athleticism at least gave people hope he could end up a poor man’s Cam Newton at the time.

And Josh Allen is not a guy to give people hope about Wilson.  That’s an extreme outlier, as QBs basically never fix their accuracy issues at this level.  Plus, his nice run yesterday aside, he does not have Allen’s athleticism.  There’s one Josh Allen but there are a lot of Darnolds, Joey Harringtons, DeShone Kizers and Josh Rosens who never make it.  

[Jetsfan80]

49 minutes ago, Mogglez said:

Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson spit in the face of ’80 when he said the same things about them in 2018.  I’ll give the guy credit.  He believes what he believes and he sticks to it, flawed arguments and history be damned.

You’re absolutely right, there is no formula.  You take kids with talent, and hope they put it together after 2-3 years.  Josh Allen’s development, more than anyone, should tell you that making any sort of proclamation on a QB after ~12 games (11 in Wilson’s case) is utterly ridiculous, especially when they are on an awful team that has been absolutely decimated by injuries and COVID.  Just because the past guys didn’t work out doesn’t mean you starting prematurely abandoning prospects.  

See my post above.  There’s only one Josh Allen.  There are dozens and dozens of Darnold’s.  Thus Allen dunking on me doesn’t really provide any lessons to learn.

If you want to rely on one extreme outlier to give you hope on Wilson, and one whose athleticism Wilson can really only dream of, then have at it.  I imagine you’ll end up disappointed.  But that’s life as Jets fan, so whatevs I guess.

Oh, and btw, I liked Lamar Jackson coming out of school.  Had him ranked above Baker Mayfield on my wishlist (but not Darnold).

[DetroitRed]

Is it 7 TDS and 2 picks since his return?  Keep improving kid

[Scott Dierking]

6 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

See my post above.  There’s only one Josh Allen.  There are dozens and dozens of Darnold’s.

If you want to rely on one extreme outlier to give you hope on Wilson, and one whose athleticism Wilson can really only dream of, then have at it.  I imagine you’ll end up disappointed.  But that’s life as Jets fan, so whatevs I guess.

Correct, BUT. Wilson's outlier is THIS year in terms of accuracy. He was a 67.6% passer during his career at BYU. 73.5 his senior year.

Allen was a 56.2% passer at Wyoming.

The flaw is not mechanical in pass completions as much as it is being raw and unsure. Whether that gets fixed, who knows?

[Jetsfan80]

9 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

Correct, BUT. Wilson's outlier is THIS year in terms of accuracy. He was a 67.6% passer during his career at BYU. 73.5 his senior year.

Allen was a 56.2% passer at Wyoming.

The flaw is not mechanical in pass completions as much as it is being raw and unsure. Whether that gets fixed, who knows?

Just like he completed 63 % of his throws yesterday against a hapless Jaguars defense, level of competition matters.  The quality of defenses he faced in school is problematic in the analysis whether his defenders want to admit it or not.  

And yes, Allen having a terrible completion % against an equally bad level of competition was exactly why I and many others wrote him off prior to draft day, and also what makes him an extreme outlier.

[Smashmouth]

4 hours ago, tfine said:

 

LOL. So Jax couldn’t stop the run but we need to get away from the run because Zach needs to post some crazy stat line to prove to the naysayers on a Jets message board wrong. You can’t make this stuff up.





Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

 

never said any of that but you keep on with your fantasies . 

[Scott Dierking]

Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

Just like he completed 63 % of his throws yesterday against a hapless Jaguars defense, level of competition matters.  The quality of defenses he faced in school is problematic in the analysis whether his defenders want to admit it or not.  

Ehh, that is really not the argument here.

[Smashmouth]

32 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Darnold had a better year throwing than Allen as rookies, yes, but Allen’s rushing ability and athleticism at least gave people hope he could end up a poor man’s Cam Newton at the time.

And Josh Allen is not a guy to give people hope about Wilson.  That’s an extreme outlier, as QBs basically never fix their accuracy issues at this level.  Plus, his nice run yesterday aside, he does not have Allen’s athleticism.  There’s one Josh Allen but there are a lot of Darnolds, Joey Harringtons, DeShone Kizers and Josh Rosens who never make it.  

Josh Allen will be a broken down mess within ten years just like every Running QB who has ever played this game. When that happens, Allen will become one dimensional and his passing game will suffer because teams will not have to worry about him running the football like they do now. Cam Newton won an MVP and I remember arguing with people on this very board saying just that "call me in a few years " I don't think Zach will turn into that type player but I also do not think he will turn into a 70% passer either.

The one thing I hang on too at this point is that Zach has made adjustments in the past when under the gun. For instance when he almost lost his job at BYU. This is what I'm hoping for as a fan and in my heart but after being shot through the heart by QB's in Jets uniforms my entire life I'm not holding my breath because my brain tells me different.

My biggest concern is the kind of passes Zach is missing on the ones that are completed at a 80% rate in the NFL, I'm sorry but there is no rookie mistake associated with constantly missing on 5 to 10 yard throws to open receivers  those are the throws you make at every level. The biggest learning curve in the NFL is Reading Defenses and the game slowing down not missing wide open players or constantly throwing behind them. Even the worst of QB's do well in garage time and Zach can't even do well at that stage of games.

[Joe W. Namath]

Zach Wilson is steadily improving these last few games.  Get excited Jet fans!!!!!!!!!!!  Its happening!!!

[Larz]

He seemed more poised, more comfortable. Better pocket work. Definite improvement 

Still has to get rid of the idea that as he’s getting sacked maybe he can hero ball a miracle 

other than that it’s encouraging 

[Larz]

29 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Just like he completed 63 % of his throws yesterday against a hapless Jaguars defense, level of competition matters.  The quality of defenses he faced in school is problematic in the analysis whether his defenders want to admit it or not.  

And yes, Allen having a terrible completion % against an equally bad level of competition was exactly why I and many others wrote him off prior to draft day, and also what makes him an extreme outlier.

Being a poor man’s shame is a waste of time. Come up with your own act

[K_O_Brien]

 

[BCJet]

44 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

Correct, BUT. Wilson's outlier is THIS year in terms of accuracy. He was a 67.6% passer during his career at BYU. 73.5 his senior year.

Allen was a 56.2% passer at Wyoming.

The flaw is not mechanical in pass completions as much as it is being raw and unsure. Whether that gets fixed, who knows?

I actually think Zachs flaws are mechanical.  Watching the video in this thread, there were few if any instances where he took a solid 3 or 5 step drop, planted his feet correctly and threw in a rhythm.  His arm talent is great, the off platform stuff is good and he showed his athleticism yesterday, but he has got to work on his footwork this offsesaon. 

To me the footwork is about more than accuracy. An NFL offense has to have certain plays/throws that are all about timing - 3 steps, plant foot and zip the ball and he isnt near where he needs to be in order to make those throws consistently

[Smashmouth]

1 hour ago, Mogglez said:

If the hill you want to die on is McDermott, Mims, and Cole are all good players and they’re just being held back by Zach Wilson, there’s nothing more that needs to be said.

Also, no, that wouldn’t be moving goal posts.  Last week Conor McDermott was an absolute liability for both the passing game, the running game, and that was discussed because it was relevant to how the offense performed.  Mims has been a failure since the spring, and that has been addressed whenever he makes a mistake that shows why he’s been benched all year.  Cole has been a failure every time he was asked to step up, such as this week, and now we’re addressing that.  What you said had absolutely nothing to do with the fact that Keelan Cole has sucked all year, regardless of who was under center, it was just a snarky dig at Wilson made to ignore tangible stats that say “Hey, it doesn’t matter who is throwing to Cole, he’s just not a starter in this league.”

Only one problem Mogglez, Keelan Cole is a 3rd or 4th receiver, his best years in JAX when he had played with QB's that were established and not part of a carousel he had 748 yards and 642 with 5 and 3 TD's . He was a third receiver, everyone knew it and he was brought in here to fill that role and everyone knew that. He was never going to turn into a number 2 his job was to play behind Davis, Crowder and Moore and possibly even Mims before training camp started and Mims went in the toilet when a lot of us expected that next step from him.. Asking a guy like that to step up out of his comfort zone and play like a number 1 is not going to happen but it does not mean he sucks it means he's not capable with his skill set to be the guy. For that Matter neither is Davis.

[UntouchableCrew]

5 minutes ago, K_O_Brien said:

 

That's encouraging.

The Jags defense was utterly atrocious but I did feel like Zach did well with his throws yesterday. There was one third down drop he placed pretty much perfectly that should have been a long completion.

[FidelioJet]

Zach Wilson top QBR of the week:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr/_/view/weekly

 

[Smashmouth]

2 hours ago, Zachtomims47 said:

I’m not a fan of Lefluers 2 runs up the middle to start off these red zone visits. We’re not a power run team here. 

but we were a power run team vs the Jags Lefluers calls were pretty much correct based on what we were being successful with during this particular game we just didn't execute on those plays as well as others. We had plenty of good run's inside the Jags 40 on other drives 

[Barry McCockinner]

6 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

Zach Wilson top QBR of the week:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr/_/view/weekly

 

It was nice to see some progress from Wilson but the fact that he's rated above Burrow this week says more about QBR than it does Wilson's performance.

[FidelioJet]

Just now, Barry McCockinner said:

It was nice to see some progress from Wilson but the fact that he's rated above Burrow this week says more about QBR than it does Wilson's performance.

Oh, for sure.

Those ratings systems are what they are - but they do seem to get quoted a lot around here when he's not good.

While they don't mean a whole lot of anything it's still nice to see.

[Peace Frog]

27 minutes ago, K_O_Brien said:

 

And Herbert threw a killer pick 6 to lose the game.  

[slimjasi]

26 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

That's encouraging.

The Jags defense was utterly atrocious but I did feel like Zach did well with his throws yesterday. There was one third down drop he placed pretty much perfectly that should have been a long completion.

Jeff Smith. Brutal drop. We've had a LOT of brutal drops this year. A LOT. 

[Mogglez]

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

See my post above.  There’s only one Josh Allen.  There are dozens and dozens of Darnold’s.  Thus Allen dunking on me doesn’t really provide any lessons to learn.

If you want to rely on one extreme outlier to give you hope on Wilson, and one whose athleticism Wilson can really only dream of, then have at it.  I imagine you’ll end up disappointed.  But that’s life as Jets fan, so whatevs I guess.

Oh, and btw, I liked Lamar Jackson coming out of school.  Had him ranked above Baker Mayfield on my wishlist (but not Darnold).

The overall point I’m trying to make regarding this is that it happens.  We all have misses because these guys will prove a ton of believers AND doubters wrong at times.  There isn’t a science to this, otherwise nobody would ever draft a bust.  Somebody already said it, but Zach didn’t have accuracy issues in college.  Far from it.  I firmly believe it’s a case of the game moving too fast for him (which is why he should have sat, that I agree with everyone on, and why I think we’re finally starting to see better accuracy and ball placement as he gets more settled in, as evidenced by the stats someone posted above) and maybe some mechanical things (I mentioned how he should work on his lower half in my pre draft write up on him).

I’ve said it before.  Wilson busting won’t make or break my fandom.  I think he has the talent and work ethic to put it all together and I will be rooting like nothing else for him to be another Allen, which (and I’m not including you in this) I don’t think can be said for a number of people here.

[Mogglez]

47 minutes ago, Smashmouth said:

Only one problem Mogglez, Keelan Cole is a 3rd or 4th receiver, his best years in JAX when he had played with QB's that were established and not part of a carousel he had 748 yards and 642 with 5 and 3 TD's . He was a third receiver, everyone knew it and he was brought in here to fill that role and everyone knew that. He was never going to turn into a number 2 his job was to play behind Davis, Crowder and Moore and possibly even Mims before training camp started and Mims went in the toilet when a lot of us expected that next step from him.. Asking a guy like that to step up out of his comfort zone and play like a number 1 is not going to happen but it does not mean he sucks it means he's not capable with his skill set to be the guy. For that Matter neither is Davis.

He was brought in to be Crowders back-up and he hasn’t been able to do that adequately.  You’re kind of making my point for me.  He’s not that good and is best suited to be a 4th WR.  My point was that Marvin Jones is significantly better than him, even at his age, and if Cole is your starter, you’re in trouble and probably not looking at a prolific passing offense.  

As for his Jacksonville #s @Sperm Edwards and I already pointed it out: him and Gardner both benefited from padding stats in garbage time last year.

[dcJet]

Eye Test?

Zach looks better.  He's starting to look like an NFL QB.  He's moving better, pocket awareness better, accuracy better.  That run... holy sh*t.  There's hope.  

If Zach gets one big breakout game, we'll have the same situation we had after Sam's first year.  

[Saul Goodman]

Zach has shown improvement. But he hasn’t performed well enough to go all in on him next season. The Jets should have a plan in the place for the QB room that includes a solid vet and possibly a draft pick (or tender Mike White). 

[dcJet]

5 hours ago, Barry McCockinner said:

It was nice to see some progress from Wilson but the fact that he's rated above Burrow this week says more about QBR than it does Wilson's performance.

Yep, stunning for sure.

QBR must take into account level of difficulty so sitting in a pretty pocket and throwing a TD to a wide open receiver, is not as impressive as running for your life because no blocking, and juking half the defenders for a TD like our Zachey did.

In other words, Zach doing what he did in this one game with the teammates he had, was as impressive as what Burrow did on his stacked team.