Updates from the Kayvon visit

[BurnleyJet]

If KT is there at 4, Jets run to turn the card in. If he isn’t, I could see them take Sauce and then go Edge at 10.

[Matt39]

6 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Who do u want at 4? Ickey?

No idea tbh. Assuming Hutchinson and Walker are off the board probably Karlaftis. Better athlete, similar production in a better conference and doesnt have the coachabilty concerns. Dont love it though. I definitely dont want OL at 4. Draft kind of sucks. 

[Jetpain]

I think Joe Douglas would prefer to trade down with the #4 pick (to the teens and a 2nd rounder this year) and to grab some extra picks next year including another number 1.   Would still give us 2 number 1's this year and possibly 3 second rounders.  

[genot]

41 minutes ago, BurnleyJet said:

If KT is there at 4, Jets run to turn the card in. If he isn’t, I could see them take Sauce and then go Edge at 10.

Jeremiah Johnson over KT. I'm almost certain of that. 

[65 Toss Power Trap]

2 hours ago, THE BARON said:

How about if London is still there at 10 ??? Still take the best edge ???  

Great question. Probably, unless the evaluation doesn't warrant it. Edge is such a premium cost in FA if you don't get one in the draft (although it is now arguable that a top-end WR is going to cost just as much).

However, WR is such a need for this team, and even more so because ZW needs adequate help to see what kind of player he is.

[65 Toss Power Trap]

51 minutes ago, genot said:

Jeremiah Johnson over KT. I'm almost certain of that. 

Genuinely interested, why do you say that?

[65 Toss Power Trap]

1 hour ago, Jetpain said:

I think Joe Douglas would prefer to trade down with the #4 pick (to the teens and a 2nd rounder this year) and to grab some extra picks next year including another number 1.   Would still give us 2 number 1's this year and possibly 3 second rounders.  

Don't you think JD is starting to feel the pressure? He's in his third draft. He's 1 for 2 (and the one he missed on, 2020, is really, really bad). Don't you think he has to nail this one?

I'm on the side of give JD and Saleh 3-4 years at least. But I don't think they have that long. They've got to hit a home run. I think they try to nail the #4 pick.

[slimjasi]

1 hour ago, Matt39 said:

No idea tbh. Assuming Hutchinson and Walker are off the board probably Karlaftis. Better athlete, similar production in a better conference and doesnt have the coachabilty concerns. Dont love it though. I definitely dont want OL at 4. Draft kind of sucks. 

I could see Karlaftis at 10 (if they took Ickey at 4). I like him

[doitny]

7 hours ago, bitonti said:

Fant was an above-average pass protector. He was below average in run blocking. He graded out like the 30th best tackle overall. This system prioritizes run blocking, by the way 

As for KT, let's walk this dog. The jets draft him. He gets 10 sacks. 

How many more wins is that? 

They need edge but it's not going to move the needle when the offense still sucks 

we had the least rushing attempts in the NFL. yet at 4.4 ypc we were ranking 11th. run blocking is not our problem. its that we are always playing from behind that we cant rush the ball.

yes and Edge would get us more wins cause he makes the defense stronger. it doesnt matter how good the offense is when we have the worst defense in NFL history. 

arent you one of the guys wanting a OL? how many wins does that get us? 

and Fant had 18 pressures that ranked him 7th among Tackles and a 98.3 pass blocking efficiency that ranked 4th. where are you getting that he was ranked 30th? 

[maury77]

8 hours ago, slimjasi said:

I'd argue that improving the pass rush absolutely helps Zach Wilson, but regardless, Douglas has to start winning some games or the media is going to turn on him and things will get ugly very quickly. 

The defense was an abomination last year and gave us no chance to win at least three games (Atlanta, Philly, 2nd NE game). Wilson was also put in tough spots like having to match Philly scoring on their first seven possessions of the game or being down 17-0 after three long Atlanta drives in London. 

A better pass rush helps everyone. 

I noticed the same thing too. Whenever the Jets D kept them in the game, the opposing offense had to "guess" more often when the Jets had the ball on offense. Wilson tended to play better in those situations. The moment the opposing team started to open up a lead and the opposing defense could "play the pass", Wilson seemed to struggle a lot more. 

[genot]

14 minutes ago, 65 Toss Power Trap said:

Genuinely interested, why do you say that?

He's a 4 down player. You know he'll be strong against the run. And you know that he'll put pressure on the QB.  Not a scary guy of the edge. But someone who'll win his share of times. KT.  Run defense. Question mark. No evidence that he'll be a elite pass rusher either. Comparison. Lawson is our Abraham. Johnson will be our Shaun Ellis. 

[maury77]

4 hours ago, hmhertz said:

The most important ability for an edge in football

people estimation is for a players ability to bend.

film studies & test results. Simms, Jeremiah, Douzable

and Cossell say Thibo & the Greek can't Walker can.

The best edge bender  in this draft was David Ojabo,

a pity he is hurt

No offense, but I could care less what the people you mentioned stated. 

Click on the link below and the first play will show you Thibodeaux flattening out. People claiming KT can't flatten out are patently wrong. I'm not telling you he is the next Von Miller by any stretch of the imagination, but this criticisim keeps getting repeated and it is incredibly easy to dispel on tape. 

 

Now here is Walker's "highlight" tape. Find me one rep where he flattens up the arc. Hell, find me a rep where he beats a tackle on a pass rush from the edge. This is why I've stopped following the draft the way I used to, the media coverage is garbage. 

 

[jetstream23]

7 hours ago, BurnleyJet said:

If KT is there at 4, Jets run to turn the card in. If he isn’t, I could see them take Sauce and then go Edge at 10.

Sauce is the ONLY non-Edge, non-OL guy I'd consider at #4.  Even with that said, I think it's a tad bit too early for him.  My board right now would probably look like...

1. Hutchinson

2. Ekwonu

3. Thibodeaux

4. Jermaine Johnson/Walker/Sauce

I don't want Neal, Hamilton, or any of the WRs there at #4.  Best move of all would be a trade-down but I'm not sure there would be any takers.

[greenwave81]

12 hours ago, FidelioJet said:

I think Fant is the odd man out if they draft Ickey.  

He ain't the odd man out necessarily, they could always return him to backup swing tackle status which he was signed to be at $9 mill/yr....

Then again, he'd garner a lot in trade I believe.

[jetstream23]

1 hour ago, greenwave81 said:

He ain't the odd man out necessarily, they could always return him to backup swing tackle status which he was signed to be at $9 mill/yr....

Then again, he'd garner a lot in trade I believe.

Draft Ekwonu and move Fant to the Morgan Moses role of last year.  Next year you'd only have Becton and Ekwonu under contract anyway.

Most people don't realize this but the Jets OT4 last year, Connor McDermott, ended up playing in 6 games.  Our OT3, Moses, played most of the season.  The Jets no longer have Moses and Fant is on the last year of his deal.  An OT in this Draft is a bigger need than many of our fans seem to realize for some reason.

If we didn't have a very solid OT3 last year we could have really screwed up things for the rookie QB.  Fans who are ignoring OT in this Draft until Day 3 are betting that both Becton and Fant will be healthy and capable all season.  And, they're also delaying the inevitable and making OT the #1 offseason priority for next year in FA or the Draft.  The Jets would be heading into next March 2023 with Becton and McDermott as the OTs under contract.

[DepressedJetsFan23]

10 hours ago, derp said:

Trading Fant who was outstanding in pass protection last year and replacing him with a rookie tackle with questions about his pass protection would be an interesting decision for a team with a young QB who thrived in college with outstanding pass protection.

I think they should be in “if it’s not broken, don’t fix it” mode at LT.

Great post, it seems so simple, if a guy was a good football player, why not keep him on a team where this is not a lot of good football players. Eventually got to retain good players and stop just trying to trade for picks 

[LIJetsFan]

2.

Anyone who wouldn't take Thibodeaux at 4 if he falls is insane.  My backup plan would be Ekwonu.  If Hutch and both my guys are gone I'd just curse at the football gods and pray for rain at 10. 

Off topic but I'd also plan to draft Breece first thing in round 2.    

[Lurker89]

4 hours ago, T0mShane said:

NUT THE POINT IS THAT IF HE IS SITTING THERE AT FOUR IT IS BECAUSE HE IS PROBABLY A DOUCHE

I don't like rooting for douches.

[Jet Nut]

5 hours ago, T0mShane said:

NUT THE POINT IS THAT IF HE IS SITTING THERE AT FOUR IT IS BECAUSE HE IS PROBABLY A DOUCHE

The reason we couldn't say this about any other player who's sitting there at 4 is? 

We're talking 3 teams he has to get by, given one is taking Hutch, thats 2 teams he has to slide past.  

[Jet Nut]

Jet fan draft cycle.

Moan that we wont get a chance to draft a stud like KT

With the emergence of Hutch, KT gets mocked to the Jets

Jet fans then overanalyze every word of an interview at the combine and decide hes a douche loaded with more red flags than sacks

KT after going on to be a star, Jets fans now cry we should have drafted him, thank you JD.

[#27TheDominator]

2 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

Draft Ekwonu and move Fant to the Morgan Moses role of last year.  Next year you'd only have Becton and Ekwonu under contract anyway.

Most people don't realize this but the Jets OT4 last year, Connor McDermott, ended up playing in 6 games.  Our OT3, Moses, played most of the season.  The Jets no longer have Moses and Fant is on the last year of his deal.  An OT in this Draft is a bigger need than many of our fans seem to realize for some reason.

If we didn't have a very solid OT3 last year we could have really screwed up things for the rookie QB.  Fans who are ignoring OT in this Draft until Day 3 are betting that both Becton and Fant will be healthy and capable all season.  And, they're also delaying the inevitable and making OT the #1 offseason priority for next year in FA or the Draft.  The Jets would be heading into next March 2023 with Becton and McDermott as the OTs under contract.

Pretty sure Conor McDermott was OT5.  Edoga was OT4

[rtnelson]

6 hours ago, T0mShane said:

Mahomes didn’t fall because he was a douche, he fell because he put up his numbers in the air raid offense*
 

*so did Zach Wilson

BYUs offense was not and is not air raid. Not that it matters at this point.

[Jet Nut]

6 hours ago, T0mShane said:

Mahomes didn’t fall because he was a douche, he fell because he put up his numbers in the air raid offense*
 

*so did Zach Wilson

That would be wrong.  

[jetstream23]

1 hour ago, #27TheDominator said:

Pretty sure Conor McDermott was OT5.  Edoga was OT4

You could be right, however Edoga played less than McDermott in 2021.  Here's what I have from Pro Football Reference for 2021....

Edoga appeared in 5 games for the Jets (that means a minimum of 1 snap in 5 different games). He didn't start any.

Conor McDermott appeared in 6 games, he started 3 of them.

Morgan Moses appeared in 17 games, starting 16.

Fant appeared in 15 games, starting all 15 of them.

Becton started 1 game.

 

My point remains the same, the Jets are on shaky ground going into the 2022 season relying on only Becton and Fant as truly capable OTs.  Odds are that McDermott and Edoga will see more playing time than we want, especially with Moses gone.  They're not horrible backups but we don't want them playing more than a game or two.  We all saw Week 18 vs Buffalo when the Jets gave up 9 sacks.

For 2023, it only gets worse.  Becton is slated to be the only starting-caliber OT under contract as 2022 is Fant's last season unless the Jets extend him this Summer.

Without drafting an OT this year Joe Douglas has a shaky depth chart for 2022, and he has a glaring hole in 2023 in at least one starting OT spot.  This assumes Becton has a healthy and successful 2022 season which is not a given.  Out of 33 career games Becton has played in only 14 of them, and this is during what should be the healthiest and youngest 2 years of his career.

As it stands now, in 10 months JD would be heading into Free Agency needing to sign a starting OT.  I'll stick to my belief that the Jets need to Draft an OT within their first 4 picks this year (4, 10, 35, 38).

 

[bitonti]

5 hours ago, doitny said:

 

and Fant had 18 pressures that ranked him 7th among Tackles and a 98.3 pass blocking efficiency that ranked 4th. where are you getting that he was ranked 30th? 

That's only counting his pass blocking grades. 

Look at the sf system these guys have to be able to run block. 

Fant is 30, never made it through a full season healthy and on the last year of his deal 

The writing is on the wall with this dude. Don't go out and buy a new Fant jersey he's toast 

[T0mShane]

31 minutes ago, bitonti said:

That's only counting his pass blocking grades. 

Look at the sf system these guys have to be able to run block. 

Fant is 30, never made it through a full season healthy and on the last year of his deal 

The writing is on the wall with this dude. Don't go out and buy a new Fant jersey he's toast 

What do you do if Saleh simply likes Fant and wants Becton out of his locker room?

[T0mShane]

2 hours ago, rtnelson said:

BYUs offense was not and is not air raid. Not that it matters at this point.

 

2 hours ago, Jet Nut said:

That would be wrong.  

I made that part up

[T0mShane]

13 hours ago, derp said:

I think he's also stuck in between things, to an extent. You want production it's Hutchinson, athleticism it's Walker. The good but not great production plus good but not great testing numbers plus prospect fatigue plus a polarizing personality make for a guy with a wide range.

I have this weird feeling Hutchinson somehow becomes a Jet but I'm probably just in draft fatigue mode.

 

13 hours ago, derp said:

I guess - and I realize I just quoted you - but an interesting comparison is Thibodeaux who was projected #1, had a disappointing junior year after a great freshman year and a mediocre sophomore year, and probably isn't going #1 any more to former popular JetNation mock draft #4 overall pick George Karlaftis who was projected top 5 before the season, had a disappointing junior year after a great freshman year and a mediocre sophomore year, and probably isn't going top 5 any more.

Both guys were projected really high because of what people thought they'd do their junior year after what they did early on in college. Neither had an outstanding pre-draft process. Thibodeaux had a better year, still a disappointing one, and has fallen a few spots. Karlaftis has had an absolute free fall, nobody's saying it's because he's a bad guy. I'd get the Thibodeaux's falling because he's a douche thing a little more if he had like 12 sacks instead of 7 and actually had a good combine instead of a couple mediocre/skipped results in important tests for pass rushers. The fall's warranted even if he's got zero character questions.

My belief is that if you were picking guys based solely on the package of game tape and testing numbers, you’d probably pencil in Thibodeaux at #1 and feel pretty good about it, particularly with this class being relatively weak. I heard an interesting point this week about how, when you have a group of players ranked fairly close to each other, the big tiebreakers for everyone involved is the good ol’ “football character” factor, and teams will almost universally prioritize the player with the least chance of being a nuisance. I think Thibodeaux could probably be a really good player, but I don’t think he’d do that here

 

edit: I think your point about Karlaftis is interesting, but that goes back to what I was saying about having Thibodeaux #1 just based on watching him—he looks rare and unique just by the eye test. Karlaftis is like the opposite of that, imo. 

[Matt39]

3 hours ago, T0mShane said:

 

My belief is that if you were picking guys based solely on the package of game tape and testing numbers, you’d probably pencil in Thibodeaux at #1 and feel pretty good about it, particularly with this class being relatively weak. I heard an interesting point this week about the draft process and how coaches parachute in during the final stretch, and that when you start to get the real, loud leaks about players, and also that—when you have a group of players ranked fairly close to each other, the big tiebreakers for everyone involved is the good ol’ “football character” factor, and teams will almost universally prioritize the player with the least chance of being a nuisance. I think Thibodeaux could probably be a really good player, but I don’t think he’d do that here

 

edit: I think your point about Karlaftis is interesting, but that goes back to what I was saying about having Thibodeaux #1 just based on watching him—he looks rare and unique just by the eye test. Karlaftis is like the opposite of that, imo. 

Best comp I’ve seen for KT is Dante Fowler. I can see his career being very similar too. 

[Augustiniak]

3 hours ago, T0mShane said:

What do you do if Saleh simply likes Fant and wants Becton out of his locker room?

I think it’s this, b/c of his attitude and b/c he does not fit their system.  I believe that hutch is their first preference but he is not going to be there at 4.  Next i think if ekongwu is there at 4 he is the pick.  I can easily see douglas trading becton on day 2 of the draft for a 2023 pick or picks.  It’s douglas’ 3rd draft but saleh’s 2nd and the draft saleh was here for was way better than the one he wasn’t.  

[68JET11]

18 hours ago, nycdan said:

I've said this elsewhere but it bears repeating.  Our run defense was much more affected by crappy LB and Safety play, than it was by bad DT play.  Our biggest problems were two guys named Davis (Jarred and Ashtyn).  I don't think adding another Davis (Jordan) will fix the issue.  I get that some people love the athleticism but if nobody can tackle RBs past the LOS, we are going to get gashed again this year... a lot.

You're talking to someone who had the same opinion. I couldn't stand Jarrad Davis, and thought that Quincy Williams was a much better player to put out on the field. The only problems with Ashtyn and Williams is that they are very raw players. Ashtyn, if he doesn't show something this year will not pan out, but I think there is hope for Quincy.

[Jet Nut]

53 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

I think it’s this, b/c of his attitude and b/c he does not fit their system.  I believe that hutch is their first preference but he is not going to be there at 4.  Next i think if ekongwu is there at 4 he is the pick.  I can easily see douglas trading becton on day 2 of the draft for a 2023 pick or picks.  It’s douglas’ 3rd draft but saleh’s 2nd and the draft saleh was here for was way better than the one he wasn’t.  

I actually cant see any of this happening.  Now Becton is a problem in the locker room?  Based on what?  We're extending the story that hes fat and lazy and turned into thats a team problem?  We're really stretching it now.

The plan is we're going to dump a player who was pretty damn good when he was rookie in favor of a new rookie who we all will then hope has no issues and is as good a OL as Becton was.  And use our 4th overall to hopefully match what Becton did last he was on the field.  All of this because he had the audacity to allow a teammate to roll up on his knee and cost him a season.

I want the 4th overall pick to make us better.

[bitonti]

5 hours ago, T0mShane said:

What do you do if Saleh simply likes Fant and wants Becton out of his locker room?

Well then the Jets have to extend Fant to the tune of about 15 per. 

That has not happened yet and it probably won't 

[Waka Flocka Flacco]

2 hours ago, Matt39 said:

Best comp I’ve seen for KT is Dante Fowler. I can see his career being very similar too. 

The best comp for what you pearl-clutching ninnies think of KT is Justin Timberlake in the Facebook movie.

[Matt39]

7 minutes ago, Waka Flocka Flacco said:

The best comp for what you pearl-clutching ninnies think of KT is Justin Timberlake in the Facebook movie.

The Napster guy?