Here we go again...Why the Jets, Aaron Rodgers will win the Super Bowl

[Bronx]

Why the Jets, Aaron Rodgers will win the Super Bowl

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/40115297/new-york-jets-win-super-bowl-2024-season-aaron-rodgers

It has been a minute, but the New York Jets are back. And by "back," I mean legitimate Super Bowl contenders.

And I know what you're thinking: "Here we go again ... every year, same story!" But it's different this time.

Last season, there was understandable hype. The defense was loaded after a terrific 2022 showing, and the offense now had Aaron Rodgers under center. Things didn't go as planned -- it doesn't get much worse than losing your future Hall of Fame quarterback on his fourth snap of the season -- but the defense still played elite ball and helped the Jets to a respectable (all things considered) 7-10 record.

And on paper, the 2024 Jets are substantially better than the 2023 Jets. You'd be hard-pressed to compare this roster with those of the other 31 NFL teams and not come away thinking this is a legitimate title contender. So let's take a look at what New York has built and lay out why the Jets will win Super Bowl LIX next February.

An elite defense

How did the Jets win seven games last season despite operating what was easily the league's worst offense? Simple. They had an elite defense led by coach Robert Saleh and defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich.

.

After guiding one of the league's top D units in San Francisco from 2017 to 2020, Saleh took over as New York's coach in 2021. It took him a year (the Jets were last in defensive EPA in 2021), but he quickly turned things around (they ranked fourth in 2022 and third in 2023). The Jets' defense has delivered in all phases, including ranking among the top four in yardage allowed and finishing seventh in sacks in each of the past two seasons.

The future looks bright for a unit that will return eight of its top nine participants (by snaps) from 2023. That list includes standout off-ball linebackers C.J. Mosley and Quincy Williams, an elite cornerback trio in Sauce Gardner, D.J. Reed and Michael Carter, and one of the league's best defensive tackles in Quinnen Williams.

The edge rusher room will have a slightly different look, but it might be better, with Haason Reddick (fourth in the league with 54 sacks over the past four seasons) in and John Franklin-Myers and Bryce Huff out. Reddick will join 2022 first-round pick Jermaine Johnson (7.5 sacks during a breakout 2023 campaign) as the team's starting duo, with 2023 first-rounder Will McDonald IV -- who was limited to 177 snaps as a rookie because of the team's excellent depth at the position -- set up for a leap forward in Year 2.

Safety is a potential weak spot after the departure of Jordan Whitehead, though the savvy and cheap addition of Chuck Clark shouldn't be overlooked. Clark missed all of 2023 with a torn ACL, but he posted 284 tackles (ninth most among safeties) with Baltimore over 2020-22. He provides a quality running mate for returning starter Tony Adams, who was solid on 845 snaps last season. Tackle depth behind Williams is probably the bigger concern for this defense, though putting experienced innings-eaters such as Javon Kinlaw, Solomon Thomas and Leki Fotu on the field shouldn't prove overly detrimental.

Simply put, the Jets' defense remains elite on paper, and there's little reason to expect a regression from the past two seasons.

Much-improved offensive supporting cast
All eyes were on Rodgers last offseason, which distracted from the fact that his offensive supporting cast wasn't particularly good. Running back Breece Hall was recovering from a torn ACL, the wide receiver room was arguably the worst in the league behind Garrett Wilson and offensive tackle was a major concern.

Things are in a much better spot entering 2024.

Hall (understandably) started slow last season, but his usage increased progressively through the season. He had his lowest snap share in Week 1 and his highest in Week 18. The 2022 second-round pick overcame the team's offensive struggles to finish second among all running backs in scrimmage yards (1,585), as well as first in targets (94), receptions (76) and receiving yardage (591). Hall, who turns 23 this summer, has already solidified himself as one of the game's best running backs.

At wide receiver, the Jets have an ace. Wilson is the real deal. The 2022 first-rounder is fourth in the league in targets (315) since he was drafted, trailing only Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill and CeeDee Lamb. Of course, he's 14th in receptions (178), 19th in yards (2,145) and tied for 59th in touchdowns (7) during that span mainly because of the team's dreadful quarterback play.

During the offseason, the Jets signed big man Mike Williams and drafted short-range after-the-catch specialist Malachi Corley, which provides a big upgrade on last season's secondary receivers Xavier Gipson, Allen Lazard, Jason Brownlee and Randall Cobb.

Add in underrated tight end Tyler Conklin (one of four TEs with 58-plus receptions each of the past three seasons), and Rodgers has the support he needs to produce at a high level. That's especially the case when you consider that he'll also have the benefit of a solid line protecting him.

Formidable offensive line
Heading into the 2023 season, I wrote that New York's offensive tackle situation was one of the league's biggest X factors. Duane Brown and Mekhi Becton were wild cards, and neither panned out. Brown appeared in only two games because of various injuries, whereas Becton finally stayed upright but struggled and wasn't re-signed. The team mixed and matched along the line all season long and ended up ranked 30th in pass block win rate and 29th in run block win rate.

The line was clearly a big problem, and the Jets' front office took action, moving on from tackles Becton, Brown and Billy Turner, as well as interior linemen Laken Tomlinson and Connor McGovern. The five players were responsible for 2,636 (or 50.3%) of the team's offensive line snaps in 2023.

The new-look line will have at least four new Week 1 starters. The lone potential returning starter is right guard Alijah Vera-Tucker, who has been an above-average producer when healthy since he was selected in the first round in 2021. Vera-Tucker tore an Achilles while being forced into right tackle duties in Week 5 last season, but is on track to return for the start of the season. He will be joined on the interior by veteran addition John Simpson (LG) and 2023 second-round pick Joe Tippmann (C). Neither was overly impressive in 2023, but Simpson was above-average as a pass-blocker on 1,191 snaps with Baltimore, and Tippmann is a good bet for a leap forward in his second pro season

[dbatesman]

2 minutes ago, Bronx said:

And I know what you're thinking: "Here we go again ... every year, same story!" But it's different this time.

lmao

[BP]

Greatest team in the history of ever. (Off season only). And some fans and players and their own coaches believe it. I wonder when STH can get photo shoots with the tooth fairy and and the real Santa Claus. This is soooo exciting!

[Warfish]

Cool.

[ECURB]

4 minutes ago, BP said:

Greatest team in the history of ever. (Off season only). And some fans and players and their own coaches believe it. I wonder when STH can get photo shoots with the tooth fairy and and the real Santa Claus. This is soooo exciting!

It’s better than rolling into the season with the roster from a few years ago… 

What do you suggest? Just always bitch?

[Trotter]

18 minutes ago, BP said:

Greatest team in the history of ever. (Off season only). And some fans and players and their own coaches believe it. I wonder when STH can get photo shoots with the tooth fairy and and the real Santa Claus. This is soooo exciting!

Not sure about Santa and the tooth fairy but we can with fireman ed

[Beerfish]

- Our defense is good, not elite.   People have been calling them elite for a few years, they are not.

- Our QB is 3 years from mvp quality play and is close to the fall off the cliff age

 

[Sarge4Tide]

Bronx when anyone writes anything good about the Jets….

 

[Larz]

Get used to it ladies 

 

 

[doitny]

2 hours ago, Bronx said:

Jets to a respectable (all things considered) 7-10 record

thats what i have been trying to tell you guys all winter. 7-10 is pretty damm good when you have 3 QBs who should never have been on a NFL roster.

 

2 hours ago, Bronx said:

How did the Jets win seven games last season despite operating what was easily the league's worst offense? Simple. They had an elite defense led by coach Robert Saleh and defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich.

thank you Robert Saleh, thank you!

[Untouchable]

If you can’t get excited about the Jets this year, then when can you?

Everyone knows deep down after Rodgers is gone, we’re going back to scraping the bottom of the sh*t barrel for the next QB.

Might as well enjoy it while it lasts

I’ll probably already be dead by the time we have the window cracked open like this again.

[Rolloffjet]

4 hours ago, Bronx said:

He will be joined on the interior by veteran addition John Simpson (LG) and 2023 second-round pick Joe Tippmann (C). Neither was overly impressive in 2023, but Simpson was above-average as a pass-blocker on 1,191 snaps with Baltimore, and Tippmann is a good bet for a leap forward in his second pro season

Great article 

only thing i disagree with was about tippman. He played great most of the year. Had a couple of rookie mistakes but was best rookie center last year and is above ave player who will only get better.

[rtnelson]

Heading to the bank tomorrow for the reverse mortgage and putting it all on Green baby!

[Jetsfan80]

3 hours ago, Beerfish said:

- Our defense is good, not elite.   People have been calling them elite for a few years, they are not.

 

^^^ lol.  Says the guy who blamed the D every time they couldn’t pitch a shutout for poor Zach.

By nearly every available metric, the defense has been elite.  And that’ll be even clearer when paired with competent offense this season.  Regardless of your silly arguments otherwise, it actually IS quite difficult for a D to lock up its opponent week after week (both in actual fact AND psychologically) when they know the first team to 13 points wins.  

[Larz]

I wish they were the panthers, crappy and boring. 
 

my pwecious feewings wouldn’t get hurt. 

[UntouchableCrew]

Yes, Mike Clay ranked us as having the most talented roster in the NFL. He also picked the Jets over 9.5 as his “best bet.”

Guy is bullish on the Jets. Time will tell.

[The Crusher]

6 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

^^^ lol.  Says the guy who blamed the D every time they couldn’t pitch a shutout for poor Zach.

By nearly every available metric, the defense has been elite.  And that’ll be even clearer when paired with competent offense this season.  Regardless of your silly arguments otherwise, it actually IS quite difficult for a D to lock up its opponent week after week (both in actual fact AND psychologically) when they know the first team to 13 points wins.  

Yeah, it’s like someone forgot to tell the Jets it’s the other teams QB that should give the defensive trouble, not your own! 

[slats]

This franchise and hype generally don’t mesh very well. I wish Mike Clay would shut the **** up. 

[JustInFudge]

[The Crusher]

[BreeceHallofFame]

10 hours ago, Beerfish said:

- Our defense is good, not elite.   People have been calling them elite for a few years, they are not.

- Our QB is 3 years from mvp quality play and is close to the fall off the cliff age

 

Are you comparing them to the 2000 ravens or other current defenses in the NFL? They are easily a top 3 defense and the best defense the jets have fielded in 25 years.

[Integrity28]

10 hours ago, Larz said:

Get used to it ladies 

 

 

What a clown.

[T0mShane]

The positive case is that, sure, replacing Zach Wilson with Aaron Rodgers should equate to +5ish wins because Zach Wilson is probably a bottom-five QB of all time and Rodgers, even in his diminished mental and physical state, is capable of giving you an Alex Smith-type season. 
 

I also think it’s clever of Douglas to (1) exile all of Rodgers’ binkie-boys except for Lazard, and to resist the temptation to bring in any more of those guys. It would have been very easy for him to sign Bakhtiari and MVS earlier in the offseason and sell it as checking off dire needs, but they very consciously avoided those traps. I also think it’s wise to negate the threat of Rodgers’ decline by loading up for a Titans-like run-heavy offense built around Breece Hall and the two young slugs they drafted. Worst case where Rodgers goes down/flakes out, they can still fall back on the run game and play action, even if Tyrod and/or the sh*tty, lesser version of Bryce Young they wasted a pick on in the fifth round have to play. 
 

Their poison pills, however, are (1) that it’s almost impossible to slap together disparate pieces of an OL with zero continuity and expect them to play well in year one, especially when multiple members of that OL aren’t going to practice consistently, if at all. And, (2), you’re counting on Saleh, Hackett, and Ulbrich to be good enough to match up with the better coaching staffs in the league. The upside of Zach was that his awfulness masked a lot of clownishness from the head coach, and now that gloriously convenient excuse is gone forever. 
 

Ultimately, the Jets will be better (Zach sucks), but it’s nigh impossible to make the leap to being contenders in this kind of compressed time frame, even in the unlikely event Rodgers stays healthy and engaged. 

[Barton]

Is Mike Williams even jogging at this point?

Risky move to bet on this guy to be our #2 WR.

If they can add a legit star WR before the season, this team will go to another level. 

[Claymation]

You can make an argument that the Jets have a top edge defender, top 3 defensive tackle and a top 3 cornerback. How many defenses can boast that?

[TheNuuFaaolaExperience]

I'm more excited about snap 5 in week one. Can we win a game before talking about the Super Bowel?

[Barry McCockinner]

9 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

^^^ lol.  Says the guy who blamed the D every time they couldn’t pitch a shutout for poor Zach.

By nearly every available metric, the defense has been elite.  And that’ll be even clearer when paired with competent offense this season.  Regardless of your silly arguments otherwise, it actually IS quite difficult for a D to lock up its opponent week after week (both in actual fact AND psychologically) when they know the first team to 13 points wins.  

The game plan for everyone was run the ball, be patient, don't take chances and let Zach Wilson win it for you. Everyone except for Buffalo Bills RB Josh Allen. That guy is a maniac.

I'm very interested in how the defense looks when teams have to press against them. 

[Joe W. Namath]

Dont be afraid jet fans.  Dream big!!!!

If Rodgers stays healthy we will win 13 games and the division.

This will be the best jet season since 1998.

Enjoy the ride boys!!!

[T0mShane]

1 hour ago, Barton said:

Is Mike Williams even jogging at this point?

Risky move to bet on this guy to be our #2 WR.

If they can add a legit star WR before the season, this team will go to another level. 

With the free agent adds, it’s like a time honored tradition to get pumped up about the names and ignore the fact that better-run teams willfully cast them out despite those players wanting to return to those teams. Tyron Smith had no market despite being a future HoF. Twenty different teams were and are desperate for receiver help, and Mike Williams had no market. Ashtyn Davis was begging for a new team and had zero bites. The Ravens threw Moses and Simpson out the door without having proven replacements on the roster. Even in the case of Reddick, the Eagles ate $21 mil to get rid of him, then gave a ton of money to Bryce Huff. This isn’t to say that these signing were bad, but it’s always worth taking a beat to remember that it’s usually bad process to pick up dudes that better teams didn’t want anymore. 

[Beerfish]

2 hours ago, BreeceHallofFame said:

Are you comparing them to the 2000 ravens or other current defenses in the NFL? They are easily a top 3 defense and the best defense the jets have fielded in 25 years.

No they are not easily top 3, they struggle to be top 3 and fail at bad times in many games.   They are good not elite as i said,

[slimjasi]

3 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

No they are not easily top 3, they struggle to be top 3 and fail at bad times in many games.   They are good not elite as i said,

I wouldn’t say “easily,”  but they were 3rd in DVOA last year

[BigRy56]

Jets have as good of a roster out there and there’s a solid chance the team has a top 10 unit in all 3 phases. So I’m not surprised by these articles but I implore everybody to let some games take place first before you take the cheese. People dove in head first last year and had a 20 week meltdown after 4 plays. That’s all it’ll take to destroy the Jets (or any teams) season again 

[nj meadowlands]

🤦‍♂️

[Jetsfan80]

42 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

The game plan for everyone was run the ball, be patient, don't take chances and let Zach Wilson win it for you. Everyone except for Buffalo Bills RB Josh Allen. That guy is a maniac.

I'm very interested in how the defense looks when teams have to press against them. 

True but the flip side is this D is loaded with pass rushers that get to be unleashed with the offense giving us far more leads.  We’re built to face an opposing offense that CANNOT afford to go conservative against us.  

So yes it’ll be an interesting test for sure.  One I think the D will pass.

[Jetsfan80]

13 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

No they are not easily top 3, they struggle to be top 3 and fail at bad times in many games.   They are good not elite as i said,

Even if you drop down to saying they’re the 5th-7th best D rather than top 3, that’s still elite or at least better than “good”.  

You consistently blamed the D and excused the O the last couple years so your credibility on the topic is pretty clownish at this point.