Breer's Draft Column

[KRL]

Another good one:

https://www.si.com/nfl/2017/12/12/2018-draft-quarterbacks-running-backs-baker-mayfield-bradley-chubb-courtland-sutton

The first edition of this column ran one day shy of three months ago, and it centered on two guys who showed Heisman promise over the first two weeks of the season.

We were right on that one. Both Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield and Louisville’s Lamar Jackson were in New York for the Heisman ceremony on Saturday night. But compare the impact each has made in the time since, and there’s no contest.

This fall, Mayfield helped himself this fall as much as any draft-eligible player. His 13-game run included 4,340 passing yards, 310 rushing yards, a 71.05 completion rate, 41 touchdown passes, five touchdown runs, just five picks, a third straight Big 12 title and a birth in the playoffs. Along the way, he proved to be an improved passer from the pocket, as well as the competitor we always knew he was.

 

Jackson was plenty good, too. But despite another year of gaudy numbers (3,489 yards, 25 touchdowns passing; 1,443 yards, 17 TDs rushing), his team was just 8-4, knocking him from the spotlight nationally. More important to NFL types, Jackson still left them wanting for instincts and anticipation as a passer.

The bottom line? Back in September, the NFL saw both these guys as second-day types. Mayfield has taken the next steps. Jackson, spectacular as he can be, hasn’t.

We’re transitioning this week, from the regular-season Draft Column into the bowl season Draft Column, and so we can call this our bridge edition. And to do it (in keeping with the boss’s customs), we’ll kick it off with 10 Things I Think I Think from another wild fall of college football. And we’ll start with those two quarterbacks.

 

ADVERTISING

1. At this point, it would be a surprise if Baker Mayfield doesn’t go somewhere in the first round. Mayfield isn’t for everyone. But he’s accurate, he’s mobile, and he wins. The off-field incident of last summer and his on-field antics are there, yes, but offset by how his teammates and coaches feel about him, and his football character (i.e. how seriously he takes his craft). Like I said last week, I think a lot of teams will have second-round grades on him, and someone jumps on him in the first.

NFL

Baker Mayfield Is a First-Round NFL Draft Pick

2. Conversely, it would be a surprise if Lamar Jackson does go in the first round. The evaluators I’ve spoken with have questions about his instincts and anticipation in the passing, and his ability to process within the context of a pro offense, and still believe he’s more thrower than passer. That doesn’t mean he can’t develop. It does means that he was seen as raw as a quarterback going into 2016, and the feeling on that remains the same.

 

3. For as closely as we all scrutinized USC’s Sam Darnold, UCLA’s Josh Rosen, and Wyoming’s Josh Allen, not much has changed on those three as far as scouts are concerned. Darnold still has the funky mechanics, the flair for the dramatic, the rep as a winner and the pristine character. Rosen is still the pageant winner—he looks like he was born to throw a football—with the questions about his personality and character. And Allen is the raw mountain of ability without much polish.

NFL

Why Josh Allen Is the NFL Draft’s Most Polarizing Prospect

4. I think Josh Rosen and Josh Allen are definitely declaring, and I think very few people know what Sam Darnold will do. My understanding is Darnold shut down all talk of that before the season started, and his reluctance to jump through some hoops players do (like vetting agents) in deciding on whether to declare or not is what led people to believe that he’ll be back in 2018. What you hear is he’s a smart kid, from a good family, who will take everything into account before making a final call. Could he use the extra year? Yes. But if he’s projected to go first or second, that’ll be tough to pass on.

5. Last year’s running backs class has a chance to be remembered for a long, long time: Alvin Kamara, Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffrey, Joe Mixon, Dalvin Cook, Jamaal Williams, Kareem Hunt . . . on and on. This year’s group might be close to as good. Not quite to the level of 2017, but good enough to start to look at this being a new golden era at the position, particular when you figure Todd Gurley (2015) and Ezekiel Elliott (2016) in. Penn State’s Saquon Barkley is fantastic, but it’s not just him. LSU’s Derrius Guice, Alabama’s Damien Harris and Bo Scarbrough, Georgia’s Nick Chubb and Sony Michel, Stanford’s Bryce Love, Auburn’s Kerryon Johnson, USC’s Ronald Jones, Miami’s Mark Walton and Notre Dame’s Josh Adamsare among those who make this a deep, quality class.

 

6. Saquon Barkley’s star faded late in the year, to the point where he finished with just four 100-yard rushing games on the season and wasn’t even invited to New York. But don’t get it twisted—this is still the do-everything, 21st-century prototype that we said he was back in September. I ran it by one AFC exec on Monday night who said, “to the people that matter, nothing’s changed.” Barkley, like Ezekiel Elliott and Joe Mixon before him, fits what NFL teams are looking for in 2017, the 230-pound hammer who can play on all three downs.

NFL

2018 NFL Mock Draft: Darnold One of Four First-Round QBs

7. Some guys help themselves by staying in school, and Mayfield wasn’t the only one in 2017. The best example? N.C. State senior pass rusher Bradley Chubb, who I believe some teams will regard as the best prospect at any position in this year’s class. I got a one-word answer when I asked one veteran evaluator what he liked about the 6' 5", 272-pound Chubb coming out of this year: “Everything.” And another defensive linemen who helped him stock by staying for senior year was Michigan’s Maurice Hurst. His height (he’s expected to measure out at 6' 1" or so) may keep him out of the first round, but he can play.

8. NFL teams looking for offensive line help in 2018 are going to be much happier with what they find than those who needed them last year. While those guys are still harder to evaluate and develop than they used to be, it wouldn’t be shocking if three offensive linemen—Notre Dame guard Quenton Nelson, Notre Dame tackle Mike McGlinchey and Texas tackle Connor Williams (health permitting)—all went in the first 10-15 picks, and there are others who can play beyond those three.

9. SMU’s Courtland Sutton is going to be one of this year’s most interesting prospects, with a good shot to go ahead of more well-known names at wide receiver, like Calvin Ridley (Alabama) and James Washington (Oklahoma State). Sutton is expected to come in at 6' 4" and 230 pounds, and those who live-scouted him came back sounding like they just spotted Big Foot. If he tests well—and it’s expected he will—there’s a chance he lands inside the Top 10 picks as the first receiver taken.

10. I can’t wait to dig a little more into the small school prospects. Perhaps the most interesting one is Texas-San Antonio pass rusher Marcus Davenport, a converted receiver who we covered a little earlier in the year. Another intriguing one to watch is South Dakota State tight end Dallas Goedert, who can play in-line and flex out, and does a little bit of everything. And if you want to go really deep, we’ll probably be talking more about West Georgia tackle Desmond Harrison come March and April. Harrison, a Senior Bowl invitee, is 6' 6", 290 pounds and could run sub-5.0 in the 40.

11. And here’s a bonus, before we get out of here for this week (we’ll reinstitute some of the old elements next week): This year’s class, outside of the quarterbacks, lacks sizzle at the top. There’s no super-elite prospect at another position, like a Jadeveon Clowney or Myles Garrett (or like a number of the 2019 defensive line prospects could be), but there is balance and depth.

That’s all for now. It’s still early yet. Five months to go.

[JustInFudge]

Do I need to post Mac's big board again?  

[Lupz27]

Man I really hope Darnold doesn’t declare, I won’t be able to stomach seeing him in the Giants Blue for the next 15 years winning.

[Ken Schroy]

44 minutes ago, JiF said:

Do I need to post Mac's big board again?  

I thought it was Big Macs Little board?

[PepPep]

On Pro potential I have the following order. I'm sure everyone will disagree that I put Allen so high and Mayfield so low. All good. 

If the Jets miss out on the top 3 or are not able to trade up I really hope Jackson slips to them. He'd be really fun to watch. 

1. Sam Darnold

2. Rosen 

3. J.Allen

4. Jackson

5. Rudolph

6. Thorson

7. B. Mayfield

[BroadwayJoe12]

- Has thought 

- Looks up various online draft-bloggers' opinions on players they've scouted via hours of youtube "tape" 

- Posts thoughts on football site

- Sits back and waits for disagreement

- Vehemently lashes out at anyone who should dare disagree with his completely and totally original thoughts. ~ The NFL Draft Hardo's Guide to Posting

[BroadwayJoe12]

^Disclaimer. Not regarding KRL. 

[redlichtie]

10 minutes ago, PepPep said:

On Pro potential I have the following order. I'm sure everyone will disagree that I put Allen so high and Mayfield so low. All good. 

If the Jets miss out on the top 3 or are not able to trade up I really hope Jackson slips to them. He'd be really fun to watch. 

1. Sam Darnold

2. Rosen 

3. J.Allen

4. Jackson

5. Rudolph

6. Thorson

7. B. Mayfield

Decent list, still don’t know what Ryan Finley has to do to get noticed and I think Falk will be a really good pro....If there’s a Kirk Ciusins in this draft it’s Luke Falk

[Ohio State NY Jets fan]

Nice to see them highlighting players who benefited from staying in school for another year 

Seems like we have seen too many kids come out early and hurt their careers like Jalin Marshall, plus Smith and Lee could have used another year, I am sure there are more

[rangerous]

imo it's easy to climb on the mayfield bandwagon.  not so easy with jackson.  it'll be interesting if darnold does go in the top 5 given his bad mechanics.

[nycdan]

What the Jets should do:  QB or LT

What I think the Jets will do: The wrong QB

What they will actually do:  Pass-rusher or Defensive Back

[Maxman]

It is an OLine draft people. Get the QB next year, let's solidify the line right now. 

[BroadwayJoe12]

15 minutes ago, Maxman said:

It is an OLine draft people. Get the QB next year, let's solidify the line right now. 

?

[southtown24th]

9 hours ago, Lupz27 said:

Man I really hope Darnold doesn’t declare, I won’t be able to stomach seeing him in the Giants Blue for the next 15 years winning.

ME TOO

[southtown24th]

8 hours ago, PepPep said:

On Pro potential I have the following order. I'm sure everyone will disagree that I put Allen so high and Mayfield so low. All good. 

If the Jets miss out on the top 3 or are not able to trade up I really hope Jackson slips to them. He'd be really fun to watch. 

1. Sam Darnold

2. Rosen 

3. J.Allen

4. Jackson

5. Rudolph

6. Thorson

7. B. Mayfield

Thanks for sharing. Who cares?

[maury77]

Oh, Lamar Jackson isn't a first rounder according to Breer? Where have I heard that before? Hmmm.....

Cam Newton

Deshaun Watson

Jackson is going to light up the combine, let's see what happens in April. 

[JustInFudge]

This mock I saw this morning seems like the most realistic.  It has the Jets drafting another LB at #10, Raquan Smith, who is more than likely going to be the best available player, him or Ward or Hurst.  So, D again.  BRACE YOURSELF FOOLS!!!! 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/nfl-mock-draft-bold-predictions-heading-into-week-15/ss-BBGFLl4?ocid=spartandhp

 

[Warfish]

But he’s accurate, he’s mobile, and he wins.

Add in that he is also passionate as hell, and a legitimate leader of men.

Yes, he is risky. 

Yes, I'm willing to go down and fail picking the best, most productive college QB who is accurate, mobile, wins, leads and plays with true passion.

[Stark]

19 hours ago, PepPep said:

On Pro potential I have the following order. I'm sure everyone will disagree that I put Allen so high and Mayfield so low. All good. 

If the Jets miss out on the top 3 or are not able to trade up I really hope Jackson slips to them. He'd be really fun to watch. 

1. Sam Darnold

2. Rosen 

3. J.Allen

4. Jackson

5. Rudolph

6. Thorson

7. B. Mayfield

THorson? dude you can take him off the list. We already have garbage QB's

1. Rosen

2. Darnold

 

3. Mayfield

 

 

 

 

4. Rudolph / Jackson

6. Allen

[bla bla bla]

26 minutes ago, maury77 said:

Oh, Lamar Jackson isn't a first rounder according to Breer? Where have I heard that before? Hmmm.....

Cam Newton

Deshaun Watson

Jackson is going to light up the combine, let's see what happens in April. 

Agreed. I'm not really that interested is Jackson compared to other QBs but I think someone is going to take him in the first round.

[nico002]

Accurate, mobile, winner, Heisman winner, passionate, what’s the risk?

[FidelioJet]

6 minutes ago, Warfish said:

But he’s accurate, he’s mobile, and he wins.

Add in that he is also passionate as hell, and a legitimate leader of men.

Yes, he is risky. 

Yes, I'm willing to go down and fail picking the best, most productive college QB who is accurate, mobile, wins, leads and plays with true passion.

Couldn't be said better.  He has all the tools - and yes, he could be a disaster but at some point you gotta go all in - can't just keep living in Limbo.  

If Mayfield is there at 10 and they take another LB - (as the mock just above states) I'm done...honestly, the Jets simply don't get it if that happens.  

[maury77]

If all this gossip is accurate, here are my preferences:

Taking Lamar Jackson at the bottom of the 1st or top of the 2nd >>>> Mayfield at our original 1st round slot >>>>>>>> trading up for Rosen or Darnold and mortgaging the future. 

At the end of the day, I don't believe there is much separation between Rosen, Darnold, Mayfield and Jackson. 

[Warfish]

15 hours ago, redlichtie said:

Decent list, still don’t know what Ryan Finley has to do to get noticed and I think Falk will be a really good pro....If there’s a Kirk Ciusins in this draft it’s Luke Falk

Great!  Lets take him in the 4th then as a backup plan to taking someone (Mayfield?) in the first.

Works for me.

[Augustiniak]

mcshay's first mock has us taking key of lsu.  that's a chalk pick for mccagnan.  he could look to replace mo with an edge guy, then think he can 'steal' rudolph in the early 2nd.  can you imagine all the ny headlines if the jets take a guy whose last name is 'rudolph'?

[Warfish]

13 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

If Mayfield is there at 10 and they take another LB - (as the mock just above states) I'm done...honestly, the Jets simply don't get it if that happens.  

After passing on Watson last year......aye, it would be very disappointing.

But it's almost assuredly what WILL happen, so we need to gird our loins for it tbqh.

I fully expect to have one of the most depressing offseasons in my life in 2018.

Bowles will be retained, as will Macc.

I think they'll blow their cap space wad, but mostly on defense.  Of course.

They'll botch at least one resigning, badly.

They'll draft a non-QB/non-skillplayer in round 1.  Likely a CB, LB or DE/DT.

They'll fail to address the O-line.

And they'll bring in either McCown again or some other Fitz/McCown analog, under the argument that "best chance to win" and "time for Hack to develop" or some similar tripe.  Worse, they may give Kirk Cousins 30+ million a year to bomb here.

I'm both excited, and dreading, this pending offseason.  It has the potential to be peak Jetsy.

[CanadaSteve]

15 hours ago, redlichtie said:

Decent list, still don’t know what Ryan Finley has to do to get noticed and I think Falk will be a really good pro....If there’s a Kirk Ciusins in this draft it’s Luke Falk

I'm NOT sure that's a compliment.

[BCJet]

16 hours ago, PepPep said:

On Pro potential I have the following order. I'm sure everyone will disagree that I put Allen so high and Mayfield so low. All good. 

If the Jets miss out on the top 3 or are not able to trade up I really hope Jackson slips to them. He'd be really fun to watch. 

1. Sam Darnold

2. Rosen 

3. J.Allen

4. Jackson

5. Rudolph

6. Thorson

7. B. Mayfield

Clyton Thorson behind Mayfield - ill say thats "interesting"

[peebag]

10 hours ago, Maxman said:

It is an OLine draft people. Get the QB next year, let's solidify the line right now. 

Run the wishbone baby!

[Obrien2Toon]

I’ve seen 3 different ones with us getting Key

and now this

We’re doomed

[Warfish]

No Pro Drafthead is going to project us taking a QB at #10, because no Pro Drafthead thinks Mayfield (or Jackson or the others) are worth the #10 pick.

 

[UnitedWhofans]

So McShay has us taking a pass rusher. Sigh. 

I listen to him for value board not for predicting picks

[chirorob]

15 hours ago, nycdan said:

What the Jets should do:  QB or LT

What I think the Jets will do: The wrong QB

What they will actually do:  Pass-rusher or Defensive Back

If they got a real, true legit pass rusher, I could see that as well.

Cant' wait for the best available corner so we can have the new Legion of Boom.   Or maybe a nice guard....

[Augustiniak]

25 minutes ago, Warfish said:

No Pro Drafthead is going to project us taking a QB at #10, because no Pro Drafthead thinks THE JETS HAVE THE BALLS TO TAKE A QB IN THE FIRST ROUND WHEN THEY'VE DRAFTED DEFENSE FOR AN ENTIRE DECADE.

 

so simple.

[Barkus]

3 hours ago, Warfish said:

But he’s accurate, he’s mobile, and he wins.

Add in that he is also passionate as hell, and a legitimate leader of men.

Yes, he is risky. 

Yes, I'm willing to go down and fail picking the best, most productive college QB who is accurate, mobile, wins, leads and plays with true passion.

agree. Mayfield reminds me of Deshaun Watson (watson had no character issues however). Mayfield is shorter than the usual QB prospects and scouts are holding that against him. Scouts felt watson's arm strength accuracy were lacking. Both of them have been very productive in college and team leaders. If mayfield plays well in the college playoffs, draft him in first round. I would consider also drafting luke falk or perhaps riley ferguson in rounds 3 or later to further augment the position. 

I would not draft allen any higher than 4th round. He is playing vs very inferior competition and is struggling. How will he perform vs the best of the best in the NFL? People compare him to Wentz but he won championships and dominated at the same level.