Sam Darnold haters = clueless

[Bowles Movement]

29 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

From an advanced stats perspective, it would be nice to see a guy who you spent 4 high picks on, be higher than 32nd in DYAR and 31st in DVOA.

We were discussing his stats while he was running for his life

[roscoeword]

16 minutes ago, usanyj said:

Any thought in the possibility he was mandated not to take off running because of the spleen and the spleen guard he wore all year? 

I hope so. Maybe next year we'll see Sam running for third downs once in a while - it will add an important dimension

[Big_Slick]

1 hour ago, JiF said:

In general, he seems to press when he thinks they need big plays.  You can even break this down to his play in tight situations.  When he scrambles, it's like he's always looking for the big play instead of just taking what he can get.  The overthrown INT that was called back, granted his check down was taken away but he could have run for the 1st or thrown it away but for some reasons when he scrambles, he's always looking big.  I think the same can be said when he's trailing.

Now, on the flip side and something that was encouraging this season is that in 4 of the wins this year, the Jets had a lead and either had a chance to put the game away or increase a lead requiring an additional score for the opposing offense; Dallas, Miami, Pitt, Buffalo and in the Miami game, he led the game winning drive for the Ficken FG.

So I think we've seen both sides of the coin.

It shows that Sam trusts his arm and accuracy and isn't afraid to pass on sure check downs when he sees a chance for a bigger play. Better a QB with a set of balls than some wussy who's more concerned with their completion percentage. That said I hope he does learn that a sure 7 yard scramble on 3rd and 6 will get another set of downs and that the 15 yard pass attempt isn't worth the risk of a drop. 

[JustInFudge]

2 minutes ago, Big_Slick said:

It shows that Sam trusts his arm and accuracy and isn't afraid to pass on sure check downs when he sees a chance for a bigger play. Better a QB with a set of balls than some wussy who's more concerned with their completion percentage. That said I hope he does learn that a sure 7 yard scramble on 3rd and 6 will get another set of downs and that the 15 yard pass attempt isn't worth the risk of a drop. 

That's my point, I'm not knocking him for trying to go for it all.  It's encouraging to have a big play QB for once.  I just think sometimes, it's unnecessary and he's got to do a better job of deciding when to take the chance and when to live to see another down.

[ZachEY]

3 minutes ago, Bowles Movement said:

We were discussing his stats while he was running for his life

Darnold isn't under "run for your life" pressure on every drop-back.  This is why stats are helpful.  They remove fan's biases.  And again, not expecting Darnold to be in the top.  But - not being the worst would be encouraging.

[Big_Slick]

26 minutes ago, usanyj said:

I also think the jets don’t throw downfield enough. I can’t think of a single time this year darnold threw it deep and we got a call that put the ball at the opponents 1 yard line.

The OL has to provide time to let the longer pass routes develop.

[HawkeyeJet]

Just now, TeddEY said:

From an advanced stats perspective, it would be nice to see a guy who you spent 4 high picks on, be higher than 32nd in DYAR and 31st in DVOA.

DVOA is basically a team stat, no? It rates people as individuals as a result of a given play but has no way of weighting the individuals specific performance weighted against his teammates right?  Sacks count negatively against the QB but doesn't include context for how sack occured

For example, Jared Goff is middle of the pack in the NFL I'm both DYAR AND DVOA.  When you  look other stats the two had VERY similar years when looking at per attempt results for TDs, Int, Yards per attempt, yards per completion, etc.  The main difference statistically (per attempt) is that Darnold was sacked on 7% of his dropbacks and Goff 3.5%.  

How do you determine who suffers the weight of those additional sacks? It appears DVOA and DYAR put it all on the QB and it makes for a huge difference in their rating.

If Darnold and Goff switched teams, whose DVOA and DYAR changes more?  Those are the things that can't really be answered unfortunately.

[Matt39]

49 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

Can’t do that.  The website would collapse without him.  He said so.

Cemeteries full of irreplaceable posters

[Matt39]

2 minutes ago, HawkeyeJet said:

DVOA is basically a team stat, no? It rates people as individuals as a result of a given play but has no way of weighting the individuals specific performance weighted against his teammates right?  Sacks count negatively against the QB but doesn't include context for how sack occured

For example, Jared Goff is middle of the pack in the NFL I'm both DYAR AND DVOA.  When you  look other stats the two had VERY similar years when looking at per attempt results for TDs, Int, Yards per attempt, yards per completion, etc.  The main difference statistically (per attempt) is that Darnold was sacked on 7% of his dropbacks and Goff 3.5%.  

How do you determine who suffers the weight of those additional sacks? It appears DVOA and DYAR put it all on the QB and it makes for a huge difference in their rating.

If Darnold and Goff switched teams, whose DVOA and DYAR changes more?  Those are the things that can't really be answered unfortunately.

I think in its simplest terms Darnolds performance weighted against his QB counterparts ranked him at the bottom of the league. Tannehills performance is still too small of sample to just blame Gase imo. 
 

The Jets are run poorly, which has certainly stunted Darnolds growth. My take is ownership isn’t going anywhere so in order for this franchise to actually do anything good they’re going to have to hit on an unquestioned top 5 guy at QB.

[ZachEY]

1 minute ago, HawkeyeJet said:

DVOA is basically a team stat, no? It rates people as individuals as a result of a given play but has no way of weighting the individuals specific performance weighted against his teammates right?  Sacks count negatively against the QB but doesn't include context for how sack occured

For example, Jared Goff is middle of the pack in the NFL I'm both DYAR AND DVOA.  When you  look other stats the two had VERY similar years when looking at per attempt results for TDs, Int, Yards per attempt, yards per completion, etc.  The main difference statistically (per attempt) is that Darnold was sacked on 7% of his dropbacks and Goff 3.5%.  

 How do you determine who suffers the weight of those additional sacks? It appears DVOA and DYAR put it all on the QB and it makes for a huge difference in their rating.

 If Darnold and Goff switched teams, whose DVOA and DYAR changes more?  Those are the things that can't really be answered unfortunately.

Sure, and again, why I'm not saying he needs to blow the doors off these stats.  And, I agree, context matters and is hurting him.  But, there is evidence to suggest that sacks are in heavily influenced by the QB.  And, at some point, the QB has to elevate too.  And frankly, for me, the eye test has Darnold as better than worst in the league, and I'm not calling him that.  But it hasn't been kind to him either.

As to the Goff comparison, wouldn't Darnold being Goff on a loaded team, be a pretty monumental disappointment?

[PepPep]

4 hours ago, Dunnie said:

In his own words "wins ... Lots of wins"

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk
 

B.S. Wins come from great teams and great coaches. Can great QBs put a sub par team on its back and carry it, sure. Sometimes. But rarely and almost never 22 yr olds, almost never when the O-line is THIS bad. 

[HawkeyeJet]

11 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

Sure, and again, why I'm not saying he needs to blow the doors off these stats.  And, I agree, context matters and is hurting him.  But, there is evidence to suggest that sacks are in heavily influenced by the QB.  And, at some point, the QB has to elevate too.  And frankly, for me, the eye test has Darnold as better than worst in the league, and I'm not calling him that.  But it hasn't been kind to him either.

As to the Goff comparison, wouldn't Darnold being Goff on a loaded team, be a pretty monumental disappointment?

Yes, I'm not saying I'd be thrilled if Darnold=Goff.  I actually don't think he is or would be equal to Goff on that team, but have no basis for it other opinion.

All I'm saying, which you acknowledge, is that context matters.  Goff and Darnold in certain respects are VERY similar players at this very moment.  The context is one is in his 4th year, 3rd under the presumed best offensive mind in the league, with an unquestioned loaded roster.  The other is in Darnold's situation.

That doesn't excuse Darnold for anything, he has serious issues that aren't simply a result of his surroundings.  But it may indicate he's not a bum(not implying you are saying he is).  

[UnknownJetFan]

7 hours ago, Dunnie said:

Except the league has made it much easier to pass in this league since most of the years quoted.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk
 

Agreed, but that is the landscape now so it is all we can go by. Those QBs also even n that time frame are getting much more calls than Darnold as far as PI, roughing calls, etc.  because the league was babying all of them too much and still are.

[ZachEY]

4 minutes ago, HawkeyeJet said:

Yes, I'm not saying I'd be thrilled if Darnold=Goff.  I actually don't think he is or would be equal to Goff on that team, but have no basis for it other opinion.

All I'm saying, which you acknowledge, is that context matters.  Goff and Darnold in certain respects are VERY similar players at this very moment.  The context is one is in his 4th year, 3rd under the presumed best offensive mind in the league, with an unquestioned loaded roster.  The other is in Darnold's situation.

 That doesn't excuse Darnold for anything, he has serious issues that aren't simply a result of his surroundings.  But it may indicate he's not a bum(not implying you are saying he is).  

I think very few are saying he's a bum.  Just that his upside, as of today, doesn't look nearly as good as some Jets fans profess.

[DetroitRed]

Except the league has made it much easier to pass in this league since most of the years quoted.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk

Except Sam started younger than every Qb there. And played behind a historically bad line this year


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

[SummerofSam14]

39 minutes ago, HawkeyeJet said:

DVOA is basically a team stat, no? It rates people as individuals as a result of a given play but has no way of weighting the individuals specific performance weighted against his teammates right?  Sacks count negatively against the QB but doesn't include context for how sack occured

For example, Jared Goff is middle of the pack in the NFL I'm both DYAR AND DVOA.  When you  look other stats the two had VERY similar years when looking at per attempt results for TDs, Int, Yards per attempt, yards per completion, etc.  The main difference statistically (per attempt) is that Darnold was sacked on 7% of his dropbacks and Goff 3.5%.  

How do you determine who suffers the weight of those additional sacks? It appears DVOA and DYAR put it all on the QB and it makes for a huge difference in their rating.

If Darnold and Goff switched teams, whose DVOA and DYAR changes more?  Those are the things that can't really be answered unfortunately.

Darnold was actually ahead of Ryan Tannehill in DVOA/DYAR in 2018 (Tannehill was 32nd). 

The advanced metrics penalize QBs for passes that don’t result in a first down/positive play (they call it failed completions). Gase wants to run his ultra conservative dink and dunk offense which is inefficient by nature.

[Dcat]

1 hour ago, Big_Slick said:

How about starting with an OL that can give him more than 2 seconds to let the WR's run their routes and give him a pocket to step up and throw the pass. He's got the DL and blitzers in his face from the snap. Should he just take the sack so he doesn't throw off his back foot?

to some degree this is true, but his instinctive tendency has always been to do that, even at USC.  He has to be taught, conditioned, trained, programmed, brain washed, whatever to STOP this.  If he doesn't, he will not reach elite.  Guaranteed.

[southtown24th]

they don't have a leg to stand on.

ignore 

and 

move on.

[Irktusk1957]

1 hour ago, Big_Slick said:

It shows that Sam trusts his arm and accuracy and isn't afraid to pass on sure check downs when he sees a chance for a bigger play. Better a QB with a set of balls than some wussy who's more concerned with their completion percentage. That said I hope he does learn that a sure 7 yard scramble on 3rd and 6 will get another set of downs and that the 15 yard pass attempt isn't worth the risk of a drop. 

Probably afraid of getting "spleened"

[CTM]

3 hours ago, Dcat said:

And why does this message board ignore the FACT that Darnold throws off his back foot constantly?  Darnold is not being coached well at all (unless he is a complete a-hole who is uncoachable. But Darnold's personality screams the opposite of that).

Because knowing what to do and doing it while reading defense and having 300lb DL trying to RIP your head off are 2 different things.

Darnold is missing the 10k+ reps it takes to have sound mechanics so ingrained in his motor memory that its automatic 

[David Harris]

the darnold polls on this board have shown he has a good 75-85% support from the board - a loud minority or some fair doubters is all

[jgb]

Jets fans “worst offense in the league means we have a top 3 QB.”

I’m not saying he can’t get there but it’s not “hating” to harbor some doubts.

[dbatesman]

2 minutes ago, David Harris said:

the darnold polls on this board have shown he has a good 75-85% support from the board

I literally cannot imagine a bigger indictment of Darnold than this

[ZachEY]

21 minutes ago, CTM said:

Because knowing what to do and doing it while reading defense and having 300lb DL trying to RIP your head off are 2 different things.

Darnold is missing the 10k+ reps it takes to have sound mechanics so ingrained in his motor memory that its automatic 

There's an excellent social sciences experiment that illustrates this well.  Researchers took dogs and put them on one side of a fence, with a steak on the other.  The dogs response was to dig under the fence to get to the steak.  In time, the researchers were able to train the dogs to go down a ways to a hole in the fence, and get to the steak with ease.  The dogs stopped digging entirely.  Then, researchers took the same dogs, who'd learned and repeatedly got to the steak via the hole in the fence and starved them.  The dogs returned to digging under the fence, losing the learned behavior of going down the fence to the hole.  Moral of the story, instincts are what they are and you need those 10K reps to overcome them.  I've long said Darnold's instincts are a problem.  Hopefully he continues to learn.

[SummerofSam14]

52 minutes ago, jgb said:

Jets fans “worst offense in the league means we have a top 3 QB.”

I’m not saying he can’t get there but it’s not “hating” to harbor some doubts.

I think most sane fans have already come to the realization that he’s not going to be that super elite guy (Rodgers, Mahomes, Wilson, Brees, Brady) that can carry a team. 
 

What we need to find out is if handed a good roster is he going be able to take his game to the next level (Jared Goff/Jimmy G) or is he one of these young QBs that holds a good roster back from being at the top of the league (Sanchez, Trubisky, Bortles)?

 

 

[CTM]

25 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

There's an excellent social sciences experiment that illustrates this well.  Researchers took dogs and put them on one side of a fence, with a steak on the other.  The dogs response was to dig under the fence to get to the steak.  In time, the researchers were able to train the dogs to go down a ways to a hole in the fence, and get to the steak with ease.  The dogs stopped digging entirely.  Then, researchers took the same dogs, who'd learned and repeatedly got to the steak via the hole in the fence and starved them.  The dogs returned to digging under the fence, losing the learned behavior of going down the fence to the hole.  Moral of the story, instincts are what they are and you need those 10K reps to overcome them.  I've long said Darnold's instincts are a problem.  Hopefully he continues to learn.

And that's the thing, people talk about his lack of experiance like it's an overwhelmingly positive thing. I wonder though, when is he replacing all of those reps against over matched HS defenses playing simple schemes? When does he get back the time of all the QB camps and HS practices he missed while boogie boarding? Seems to me that the best chance to kind of reprogram those instincts is through repetition in favorable condidtions when your brain is optimized for such learning. Instead we got a guy going into year 3 on a weak team facing the top defenses in the world who not only isn't learning good habits but in fact reinforcing poor ones.

We are probably 12 months out from extension talks  and I doubt we'll have enough information to make an informed decision by then. Once we give him the big contract the ability to keep the rest of the team strong (if we ever get there) is diminished too. On top of that the fans will be clamoring for the extension and pinning any failures on Gase. It's not a great situation and a portion of it is directly related to Darnold inexperiance. It's certainly better than having Fitzpatrick as our starter but this could easily go wrong and cost us 5 years

[Ghost420]

He still cant throw the deep ball very well

[HawkeyeJet]

This thread has actually turned into one of the better, more balanced discussions on Darnold.  Did not see that coming.  Lots of good, reasonable opinions and statistics being circulated.

[Jet_Engine1]

7 hours ago, Losmeister said:

let him play bettern ryan fitzpatrick before talkin smack

At 22 years old, Ryan Fitzpatrick was still in college,  and wouldn't start a game in the NFL for another 2 years. 

[sec101row23]

1 minute ago, Jet_Engine1 said:

At 22 years old, Ryan Fitzpatrick was still in college,  and wouldn't start a game in the NFL for another 2 years. 

Joe Burrow is older than Sam. 

[BUM-KNEE]

12 minutes ago, HawkeyeJet said:

This thread has actually turned into one of the better, more balanced discussions on Darnold.  Did not see that coming.  Lots of good, reasonable opinions and statistics being circulated.

Agreed

 

[Newjetsfan]

6 hours ago, jgb said:

To play devil’s advocate the only thing we know about him is that he may be a stud. Just because he has a garbage supporting cast doesn’t automatically mean he will be great with a better one. 

I can agree with that.  I am only pointing out, Haters are too quick to dismiss and force glass half empty perspective with every other play.  If another QB does it, it's  greatness or skill, if Darnold does it, he's  a gambler or stupid for trying to make a play.

[Dskriloff11]

Darnold plays like an airhead .. I hope he improves but he's looking like a mediocrity 

[Losmeister]

2 hours ago, Jet_Engine1 said:

At 22 years old, Ryan Fitzpatrick was still in college,  and wouldn't start a game in the NFL for another 2 years. 

i am missouri.

[k-met57]

7 hours ago, jgb said:

I’m also almost convinced he isn’t a bum. Right now sticking with my earlier opinion: Dalton downside, Romo upside.

bums dont do things like throw 2 red zone TD's on consecutive plays after the first one gets dropped or called back...in fact Darnold threw a TD on 3 consecutive plays last year in the preseason lol he has special stuff. will the jets ruin him or not help him improve? we shall see.