Trading down from #2 -- what would that look like?

[Sperm Edwards]

Put aside a preference for staying at #2 to take this or that player. This isn't about desires vs objections to trading down, nor trading the pick in a package that involves a veteran player. I'm not asking about any of that. I'm just looking at what any potential pick-for-picks trade down from #2 would look like.

I've heard repeatedly that the #2 pick is worth 3 1st round picks. Can someone actually map that out? And I mean to individual teams, not in theory based on chart math. 

Where are the teams with two 1st rounders for that initial trade-down, and then where's the next team with two later 1st rounders to trade down further still ? All 3 teams with multiple 1s pick 1-2-3 this year. 

All I'm seeing, in order to recoup the value of 3 picks between 12-20, is a theoretical on-paper-only scenario, whereby the Jets trade down about 4 times (maybe more), and accumulate enough 2nd rounders and future 1st rounders to then trade back up into round 1 this year. Twice. The only other way is if someone else trades their coveted veteran to accumulate another 1st round pick, and then wants to trade both picks to the Jets.

Otherwise the other 1st rounders we get will be in 2022 or 2022+2023. Those picks are worth a good amount less than a current 1st, in no small part because you don't know what slot that'll be, and that high up the slot is significant. That's on top of the more obvious reason, which is we go another season giving up present help in exchange for future help.

The way things sit today, can someone map it out? Show me how the Jets trade down from #2 overall and realistically parlay that into 3 mid-1st round picks in 2021. 

[Fantasy Island]

[Dcat]

Be proud of the brevity exercised in the thread starter.  Gives it a chance to survive.  My view is that #2 is not netting three first rounders, unless 2 of them are for 2022 & 2023.  Really?  Who would do that for Zach Wilson or Fields?  Artificially pumped up prospects in a not-so-great QB class.  JMO.  

[jbt]

if we are trading down swap 1sts this year, and 2nd and a 1st next year to start

 

[SomebodytoAnybody47]

Only way you're getting 3 1's this year is if they trade Sam for a 1. Otherwise it's just swapping 1's then getting an additional 1 in 2022 and 2023. Or nothing in 2023 and a bunch of 2's and 3's thrown in somewhere. 

[Lith]

Here are a couple of recent examples.  

2017.  Bears in the Trubisky trade gave up 3, 67 & 111 and next year's 3 to move up 1 spot.

2016. Eagles gave up 8, 77, 100 plus 2017 R1 and 2018 R2 for 2 and a 2017 4th.

2012.  Redskins gave up 6, 39, 2013 & 2014 1s for RG3

So there is precedent for staying in the top 10 getting three 1s, the Rams did it in the RG3 deal.  All depends on how badly someone wants Fields/Wilson and if two teams are bidding against each other.  Also, I would think if we move back to the teens, three 1s becomes a more likely outcome.

 

[Boynton Beach Jets]

The NFL point value chart values the 2nd pick in draft at 2600 points.  The 19th pick in first round is valued at 875 points,  Three 19th picks in first round is 2625 points. 

 

[Sperm Edwards]

13 minutes ago, Dcat said:

Be proud of the brevity exercised in the thread starter.  Gives it a chance to survive.  My view is that #2 is not netting three first rounders, unless 2 of them are for 2022 & 2023.  Really?  Who would do that for Zach Wilson or Fields?  Artificially pumped up prospects in a not-so-great QB class.  JMO.  

I edited it down to 4 pages

[Sperm Edwards]

Just now, Lith said:

Here are a couple of recent examples.  

2017.  Bears in the Trubisky trade gave up 3, 67 & 111 and next year's 3 to move up 1 spot.

2016. Eagles gave up 8, 77, 100 plus 2017 R1 and 2018 R2 for 2 and a 2017 4th.

2012.  Redskins gave up 6, 39, 2013 & 2014 1s for RG3

So there is precedent for staying in the top 10 getting three 1s, the Rams did it in the RG3 deal.  All depends on how badly someone wants Fields/Wilson and if two teams are bidding against each other.  

 

I wasn't asking about examples of past trade-ups, and anyway none of those involved even 2 current-year 1st round picks, never mind 3.

I'm asking in the 2021 draft, since this is the draft they have this high pick (not a cherry-picked draft from the past) show me how the Jets can acquire three mid-1st round picks in 2021 by trading down from #2. 

It'd take so many trades down and then back up again that I don't see how it's realistic. 

[nycdan]

12 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Put aside a preference for staying at #2 to take this or that player. This isn't about desires vs objections to trading down, nor trading the pick in a package that involves a veteran player. I'm not asking about any of that. I'm just looking at what any potential pick-for-picks trade down from #2 would look like.

I've heard repeatedly that the #2 pick is worth 3 1st round picks. Can someone actually map that out? And I mean to individual teams, not in theory based on chart math. 

Where are the teams with two 1st rounders for that initial trade-down, and then where's the next team with two later 1st rounders to trade down further still ? All 3 teams with multiple 1s pick 1-2-3 this year. 

All I'm seeing, in order to recoup the value of 3 picks between 12-20, is a theoretical on-paper-only scenario, whereby the Jets trade down about 4 times (maybe more), and accumulate enough 2nd rounders and future 1st rounders to then trade back up into round 1 this year. Twice. The only other way is if someone else trades their coveted veteran to accumulate another 1st round pick, and then wants to trade both picks to the Jets.

Otherwise the other 1st rounders we get will be in 2022 or 2022+2023. Those picks are worth a good amount less than a current 1st, in no small part because you don't know what slot that'll be, and that high up the slot is significant. That's on top of the more obvious reason, which is we go another season giving up present help in exchange for future help.

The way things sit today, can someone map it out? Show me how the Jets trade down from #2 overall and realistically parlay that into 3 mid-1st round picks in 2021. 

The #2 pick can be worth three 1st round picks in the right situation.  Example:  RG3 trade.  Three 1sts and a 2nd.  The first rounders were over threee consecutive years and the current one at the time was the #6 pick.  This happens when there is a QB that everyone wants.  Is Wilson or Fields that prospect?  Hard to say, but to some teams, maybe.

So while that was a bit of an overpay on the part of WAS, it's the template I'd look at here.  CAR at #8 would be a perfect place for this trade.  Not saying they would do it, but if they felt that they *had* to get Wilson or Fields (one specifically, not either/or), then it might be worth it to them.  Den at #9 and DAL at #10 would also fit from a pick value perspective.  Beyond that, I'm not sure it still works.  SF going from #12 to #2 would be a huge leap.  The Rams trade up for Goff from #15 to #1 is a better comp for that, but I don't think the value was nearly as good.  Two firsts, two seconds, and two thirds with some lower picks going back and forth to balance.  

PHI moved up from #13 to #2 that same year with two trades.  #13 to #8 by including two starters (Byron Maxwell and Kiko Alonso).  Then #8 plus third and 4th rounders and following year's 1st and 2nd rounders for #2.

So it can be three firsts.  Or two firsts and a lot of day 2 picks.  I love CAR as a partner because at #8, I think you almost have to have at least one of Pitts, Chase, Smith or Waddle available.  That would be a nice way to kick off the roster upgrade.  Having another 5-6 picks in the first 3 rounds would be a really nice upside, particularly since we have a GM who at least has a clue on how to use them.

 

[nycdan]

3 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I wasn't asking about examples of past trade-ups, and anyway none of those involved even 2 current-year 1st round picks, never mind 3.

I'm asking in the 2021 draft, since this is the draft they have this high pick (not a cherry-picked draft from the past) show me how the Jets can acquire three mid-1st round picks in 2021 by trading down from #2. 

It'd take so many trades down and then back up again that I don't see how it's realistic. 

You aren't getting three 2021 first round picks.  You are most likely looking at a 1st from each of the next three drafts.  You could certainly package #34 and another pick to move up into the 1st round though, if you wanted to be there.  I just don't know if it's going to be the best move unless someone drops that we just have to get.

[bitonti]

8 minutes ago, Boynton Beach Jets said:

The NFL point value chart values the 2nd pick in draft at 2600 points.  The 19th pick in first round is valued at 875 points,  Three 19th picks in first round is 2625 points. 

 

This is the correct math 

Also it's why a trade down is unlikely. The price is too dear 

[Lith]

11 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I wasn't asking about examples of past trade-ups, and anyway none of those involved even 2 current-year 1st round picks, never mind 3.

I'm asking in the 2021 draft, since this is the draft they have this high pick (not a cherry-picked draft from the past) show me how the Jets can acquire three mid-1st round picks in 2021 by trading down from #2. 

It'd take so many trades down and then back up again that I don't see how it's realistic. 

Then I agree with you.  I do not see any realistic way that we can trade #2 for three R1 picks in the current draft. 

[Sperm Edwards]

10 minutes ago, nycdan said:

The #2 pick can be worth three 1st round picks in the right situation.  Example:  RG3 trade.  Three 1sts and a 2nd.  The first rounders were over threee consecutive years and the current one at the time was the #6 pick.  This happens when there is a QB that everyone wants.  Is Wilson or Fields that prospect?  Hard to say, but to some teams, maybe.

So while that was a bit of an overpay on the part of WAS, it's the template I'd look at here.  CAR at #8 would be a perfect place for this trade.  Not saying they would do it, but if they felt that they *had* to get Wilson or Fields (one specifically, not either/or), then it might be worth it to them.  Den at #9 and DAL at #10 would also fit from a pick value perspective.  Beyond that, I'm not sure it still works.  SF going from #12 to #2 would be a huge leap.  The Rams trade up for Goff from #15 to #1 is a better comp for that, but I don't think the value was nearly as good.  Two firsts, two seconds, and two thirds with some lower picks going back and forth to balance.  

PHI moved up from #13 to #2 that same year with two trades.  #13 to #8 by including two starters (Byron Maxwell and Kiko Alonso).  Then #8 plus third and 4th rounders and following year's 1st and 2nd rounders for #2.

So it can be three firsts.  Or two firsts and a lot of day 2 picks.  I love CAR as a partner because at #8, I think you almost have to have at least one of Pitts, Chase, Smith or Waddle available.  That would be a nice way to kick off the roster upgrade.  Having another 5-6 picks in the first 3 rounds would be a really nice upside, particularly since we have a GM who at least has a clue on how to use them.

 

I'm not asking about an ideal theoretical situation or how it may have worked in a cherry-picked past draft.

I'm asking in this draft, in 2021 and 2021 alone, how would it work out?

Here are the teams with two #1 picks: Jacksonville, Jets, Miami. Jacksonville would be a trade up not a trade down, and Miami isn't going to fork over their other 1st round pick to the division-rival Jets to move up 1 slot. 

So how would it happen this year? Three firsts (without two of those firsts being in the 2022 and 2023 drafts).

[Augustiniak]

11 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I wasn't asking about examples of past trade-ups, and anyway none of those involved even 2 current-year 1st round picks, never mind 3.

I'm asking in the 2021 draft, since this is the draft they have this high pick (not a cherry-picked draft from the past) show me how the Jets can acquire three mid-1st round picks in 2021 by trading down from #2. 

It'd take so many trades down and then back up again that I don't see how it's realistic. 

It comes down to how far the jets move back, and if they do keep darnold and trade out, i expect them to stay in the top 8 so that’s where you should look at trade value.  If the jets trade out, i think they’ll still target those top offensive weapons and won’t want to move too far back.

[Adoni Beast]

When you know a team is trading up for a QB, which is what any team would be doing this year, the value system automatically gets increase by the team holding the pick. 

So we can really get a lot back in return if we trade down.

[32EBoozer]

25 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I wasn't asking about examples of past trade-ups, and anyway none of those involved even 2 current-year 1st round picks, never mind 3.

I'm asking in the 2021 draft, since this is the draft they have this high pick (not a cherry-picked draft from the past) show me how the Jets can acquire three mid-1st round picks in 2021 by trading down from #2. 

It'd take so many trades down and then back up again that I don't see how it's realistic. 

#WatsontotheJets

[Charlie Brown]

No way do the Jets get 3 midround number 1's for the No.2; unless trader Mike MacCagnan is rapidly hired and on the other line!    

[LAD_Brooklyn]

If highly interested in one of the top QBs, I can see the Lions trading the 7th, 2022 1st rounder, Rams 2022 1st rounder.

Things can change, however I doubt they are going to place their jobs on the line and hope Goff turns things around 

[UntouchableCrew]

46 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

 

I'm asking in this draft, in 2021 and 2021 alone, how would it work out?

 

Obviously when people say "three firsts" they aren't talking about three 2021 firsts. Nobody has those to offer.

[Beerfish]

Well obviously you are getting future 1st rounders in any trade down deal.  You are also getting other picks this year.

From one of the mock draft simulators it came up with this.

Jets 2 overall to Detroit

Detroit: 7, 72 this year and both of their 1st rounders next year, theirs and the one the got from the Rams.

Future 1sts are lower in value and are  bit of a gamble but lets ask the Dolphins if they are sorry they traded for a future 1st rounder in the tunsil deal with houston?

The point of trading down for the Jets is as follows.

If you love one of the QBs you take him.  If you just love a non QB  player above all others you take him.

If you do not love a player above all others and have guys rated or lumped together you trade down even if you are not getting 100% premium value.  Why?

Because this team literally has holes all over the roster so it is very likely you are going to get a good player with your traded down pick and lot of extra resources to fill other holes.

We need QB, WR, TE, CB, pass rusher, oline.

[rayzor]

Here's the "value" chart.  It's not an exact science though.  Keep in mind QB's usually cost more to get.

RD1		RD2		RD3		RD4		RD5		RD6		RD7
PK/TM		PK/TM		PK/TM		PK/TM		PK/TM		PK/TM		PK/TM
1  JAX	3000	33  JAX	580	65  JAX	265	96  JAX	116	128  JAX	44	160  TEN	26.2	191  JAX	13.8
2  NYJ	2600	34  NYJ	560	66  NYJ	260	97  NYJ	112	129  NYJ	43	161  NE	25.8	192  SF	13.4
3  MIA	2200	35  ATL	550	67  HOU	255	98  ATL	108	130  HOU	42	162  ATL	25.4	193  HOU	13
4  ATL	1800	36  MIA	540	68  ATL	250	99  HOU	104	131  ATL	41	163  HOU	25	194  MIA	12.6
5  CIN	1700	37  PHI	530	69  PHI	245	100  CLE	100	132  CIN	40	164  PHI	24.6	195  CIN	12.2
6  PHI	1600	38  CIN	520	70  CIN	240	101  CIN	96	133  PHI	39.5	165  CIN	24.2	196  PHI	11.8
7  DET	1500	39  CAR	510	71  DEN	235	102  DET	92	134  CAR	39	166  DEN	23.8	197  SEA	11.4
8  CAR	1400	40  DEN	500	72  DET	230	103  CAR	88	135  DEN	38.5	167  DAL	23.4	198  BUF	11
9  DEN	1350	41  DET	490	73  CAR	225	104  DEN	86	136  DET	38	168  CAR	23	199  DEN	10.6
10  DAL	1300	42  NYG	480	74  WAS	220	105  DAL	84	137  NYJ	37.5	169  SF	22.6	200  DAL	10.2
11  NYG	1250	43  SF	470	75  DAL	215	106  NYG	82	138  SF	37	170  DAL	22.2	201  DEN	9.8
12  SF	1200	44  DAL	460	76  NYG	210	107  SF	80	139  PHI	36.5	171  NYG	21.8	202  SF	9.4
13  LAC	1150	45  JAX	450	77  LAC	205	108  LAC	78	140  MIN	36	172  NYJ	21.4	203  LAC	9
14  MIN	1100	46  NE	440	78  MIN	200	109  MIN	76	141  NE	35.5	173  LAC	21	204  MIN	8.6
15  NE	1050	47  LAC	430	79  ARI	195	110  NE	74	142  LAC	35	174  MIN	20.6	205  NE	8.2
16  ARI	1000	48  LV	420	80  LV	190	111  LV	72	143  ARI	34.5	175  HOU	20.2	206  ARI	7.8
17  LV	950	49  ARI	410	81  MIA	185	112  HOU	70	144  BUF	34	176  NYG	19.8	207  LV	7.4
18  MIA	900	50  MIA	400	82  WAS	180	113  MIA	68	145  LV	33.5	177  WAS	19.4	208  PIT	7
19  WAS	875	51  WAS	390	83  CHI	175	114  WAS	66	146  WAS	33	178  CHI	19	209  WAS	6.6
20  CHI	850	52  CHI	380	84  IND	170	115  MIN	64	147  CHI	31.4	179  LAC	18.6	210  LV	6.2
21  IND	800	53  TEN	370	85  TEN	165	116  TEN	62	148  IND	31	180  IND	18.2	211  IND	5.8
22  TEN	780	54  IND	360	86  NYJ	160	117  IND	60	149  TEN	30.6	181  MIA	17.8	212  JAX	5.4
23  NYJ	760	55  PIT	350	87  PIT	155	118  PIT	58	150  SEA	30.2	182  KC	17.4	213  SEA	5
24  PIT	740	56  SEA	340	88  LAR	150	119  SEA	56	151  MIN	29.8	183  LAR	17	214  TB	4.6
25  JAX	720	57  LAR	330	89  CLE	145	120  JAX	54	152  CLE	29.4	184  CLE	16.6	215  LAR	4.2
26  CLE	700	58  CLE	320	90  TB	140	121  CLE	52	153  JAX	29	185  PIT	16.2	216  DEN	3.8
27  TB	680	59  TB	310	91  MIN	136	122  TB	50	154  TB	28.6	186  BAL	15.8	217  TB	3.4
28  BAL	660	60  BAL	300	92  CLE	132	123  BAL	49	155  BAL	28.2	187  HOU	15.4	218  PIT	3
29  NO	640	61  NO	292	93  BUF	128	124  NO	48	156  NO	27.8	188  BUF	15	219  NO	2.6
30  BUF	620	62  BUF	284	94  GB	124	125  MIN	47	157  BUF	27.4	189  GB	14.6	220  CLE	2.3
31  GB	600	63  GB	276	95  KC	120	126  GB	46	158  GB	27	190  KC	14.2	221  GB	2
32  KC	590	64  KC	270			127  KC	45	159  KC	26.6			222  MIA	1.7

[Butterfield]

1 hour ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I wasn't asking about examples of past trade-ups, and anyway none of those involved even 2 current-year 1st round picks, never mind 3.

I'm asking in the 2021 draft, since this is the draft they have this high pick (not a cherry-picked draft from the past) show me how the Jets can acquire three mid-1st round picks in 2021 by trading down from #2. 

It'd take so many trades down and then back up again that I don't see how it's realistic. 

Only way I could see it happening,

Raiders trade Carr to the Colts for the #21.  Raiders make another trade, maybe Mariota and a 21 2nd or 22 1st to the Redskins for the 19.  Raiders then trade the 17, 19, 21 for the #2.  

The Jets then stick with Darnold, and pick 17, 19, 21, 23 and 34...

[Dcat]

1 hour ago, bitonti said:

This is the correct math 

Also it's why a trade down is unlikely. The price is too dear 

And none of the QBS after Lawrence is worth it.  And no team will trade that kind of massive draft capital for an OT or even a DE.  If JD pulls off a big trade down haul, I will be very impressed.

[Chrebetfan80]

56 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I wasn't asking about examples of past trade-ups, and anyway none of those involved even 2 current-year 1st round picks, never mind 3.

I'm asking in the 2021 draft, since this is the draft they have this high pick (not a cherry-picked draft from the past) show me how the Jets can acquire three mid-1st round picks in 2021 by trading down from #2. 

It'd take so many trades down and then back up again that I don't see how it's realistic. 

There is no way for a team to offer multiple 1st rounds picks this year as the teams that have those picks will not be trading up. (jags/dolphins).  

So if you are getting 1st round picks in the deal they will be for 2022/2023 which is not necessarily a bad thing.  

There are three ways JD can go about this:

1.  take as many 1st as you can get regardless of year.. Especially since this years scouting is altered by teams not even playing full seasons, no combine, and limited interaction with players.  So the addition of later year picks such as 2022/2023 could be seen as beneficial this offseason as it allows premium capital in future years where scouting will return to normal.  Also it provides flexibility if they opt to stay with Darnold to maneuver for a QB in future years .  

2. Sacrifice future 1sts for present Day 2 picks.  In this scenario they are saying we'll take a 2021 first and a 2022 first but give us 2021 2nd and 3rds to make up the difference.  If you feel particularly confident in your scouting this year and love the talent, this is a way to go. 

3. Combination of 1sts and current year picks plus veteran talent. solves multiple holes but leaves the team with a lesser draft capital haul and probably only getting 1 viable player in the deal. 

 

[playtowinthegame]

Detroit would have to give us their 7th, 41, 72, 89 picks in this years draft, then give us their 1st in 2022 and the Rams 1st in 2022.  The Rams picks is likely to be somewhere in the range of 23 to 32 in 2022, which is why they'd have to include the Rams 3rd rounder (No. 87) in 2021. 

2nd pick = 2600 points

Quote

 

What the Jets get:

7th pick 1500 points

41st pick 490 points

72 pick 230 points

89 pick 145 points

Total from Detroit in 2021 NFL Draft: 2,365 plus two future first round picks in 2022 Draft.

 

 

First round picks (3): 7th pick in 2021, Detroit and Rams 1st in 2022, which are unknowns other than knowing the Rams one will likely be a low first rounder. 

Jets  would have 9 picks in the top 100 in the 2021 NFL Draft: 7 (Det), 23 (Sea), 34, 41 (Det), 66, 72, 87 (Sea),  89 (Lar), 98. 

[Mark78]

5 minutes ago, Dcat said:

And none of the QBS after Lawrence are worth it.  No team will trade that kind of massive draft capital for an OT or even a DE.

It doesn’t matter if they are worth it, only if a team THINKS they are worth it

[nycdan]

Just now, Mark78 said:

It doesn’t matter if they are worth it, only if a team THINKS they are worth it

That's why the hype around Wilson makes me smile even if I personally think it's way overblown.

[Sperm Edwards]

Just now, UntouchableCrew said:

Obviously when people say "three firsts" they aren't talking about three 2021 firsts. Nobody has those to offer.

Actually yes it was presented as the value of 3 current 1st rounders, with a list of 2021 1st round prospects we could be drafting instead of just one guy we draft at #2 or trade the #2 pick to get. 

And that's my point. This year's draft is not going to return multiple 1sts this year, let alone 3 of them. It'd require a minimum of 6 sequential transactions to accomplish it.

[Sperm Edwards]

15 minutes ago, Butterfield said:

Only way I could see it happening,

Raiders trade Carr to the Colts for the #21.  Raiders make another trade, maybe Mariota and a 21 2nd or 22 1st to the Redskins for the 19.  Raiders then trade the 17, 19, 21 for the #2.  

The Jets then stick with Darnold, and pick 17, 19, 21, 23 and 34...

And that's all a long shot, to say the least. I don't even think Douglas would trade down so much that his first pick was  in the bottom half of round 1, after starting way up at #2. 

[rangerous]

5 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Actually yes it was presented as the value of 3 current 1st rounders, with a list of 2021 1st round prospects we could be drafting instead of just one guy we draft at #2 or trade the #2 pick to get. 

And that's my point. This year's draft is not going to return multiple 1sts this year, let alone 3 of them. It'd require a minimum of 6 sequential transactions to accomplish it.

i suppose you're right.  the 3 2021 first rounders is more than a little far fetched.  but what if a team did a ditka and trade their entire draft?  i'm not sure how that would play out or even if one late pick from each of the rounds would add up to that mystical draft position sheet.  roughly speaking it would take the 6th pick in each of the rounds to accomplish.

[JTJet]

It's literally impossible to get 3 1st this year in a purely draft pick trade. There arent enough teams with multiple 1st rounders.

Its preposterous but if I'm understanding what you're looking for, this is the closest I could get...

NYJ - Trade 2.

JAX - Trade 25, 33, 45, 2022 1st. 

Then...

NYJ - Trade 33, 45.

MIA - Trade 18.

Then...

NYJ - Trade 34, 66.

PIT - Trade 24.

NYJ would land 18, 23, 24, 25 and then have 3 1sts in 2022. 

My head hurts now. Thanks. 

[Sperm Edwards]

14 minutes ago, Chrebetfan80 said:

There is no way for a team to offer multiple 1st rounds picks this year as the teams that have those picks will not be trading up. (jags/dolphins).  

So if you are getting 1st round picks in the deal they will be for 2022/2023 which is not necessarily a bad thing.  

There are three ways JD can go about this:

1.  take as many 1st as you can get regardless of year.. Especially since this years scouting is altered by teams not even playing full seasons, no combine, and limited interaction with players.  So the addition of later year picks such as 2022/2023 could be seen as beneficial this offseason as it allows premium capital in future years where scouting will return to normal.  Also it provides flexibility if they opt to stay with Darnold to maneuver for a QB in future years .  

2. Sacrifice future 1sts for present Day 2 picks.  In this scenario they are saying we'll take a 2021 first and a 2022 first but give us 2021 2nd and 3rds to make up the difference.  If you feel particularly confident in your scouting this year and love the talent, this is a way to go. 

3. Combination of 1sts and current year picks plus veteran talent. solves multiple holes but leaves the team with a lesser draft capital haul and probably only getting 1 viable player in the deal. 

 

You're arguing with me or agreeing with me? I can't tell.

I'm aware of all those scenarios and addressed them in the thread starter, so I think you're agreeing but it doesn't sound like it.

My contention is it's been presented here on more than one occasion that the #2 pick is worth 3 current 1st round picks.

 

[derp]

Is this in the context of the Watson conversations? 

[Sperm Edwards]

7 minutes ago, rangerous said:

i suppose you're right.  the 3 2021 first rounders is more than a little far fetched.  but what if a team did a ditka and trade their entire draft?  i'm not sure how that would play out or even if one late pick from each of the rounds would add up to that mystical draft position sheet.  roughly speaking it would take the 6th pick in each of the rounds to accomplish.

I've got no issues with trading down. It's just that it's been repeated so often that we'd get back 3 first round picks I think many accept it as a foregone fact. If we could? Yeah I'd do it in a heartbeat of course. 

The problem is the team is not in need of high draft picks. They're in need of a combination of the high picks they have, plus some veterans. Then reassess again next year. But they're not putting 6 rookies on the field together unless 3+ veterans get injured at the same time and at those particular positions the next man up is a 2021 draft pick. 

Also our pick at #2 is worth more than most teams' entire drafts on paper. And if someone's moving up to #2 for a QB (which is likely) then the expectation is for the GM trading down to get in excess of chart value.