Ex-NFL Executive Randy Mueller: Sam Darnold vs Zach Wilson?

[C Mart]

16 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

First off, this decision has already been made.  The Jets will be trading Sam.  Who the QB will be is still an open question...Watson or Wilson seems to be the two, very different, options.

Secondly, in addition to all the reasons the exec stated - he's really not taking into account the NY fan base and media - and, of course, JD's personal job security.  Now, I know people say you can't manage a team like that - but BS - it's reality and does have tangible effects.

if the Jets start out 0-3 with Sam the fan base will be booing this team off the field on every possession that doesn't result in a TD - that stuff is bad for player moral - it reverberates through the locker room. It will get UGLY very fast.  There still won't enough talent on this team (even with all those picks this year) to build a team Sam can win with - this year -those rookies and second year guys will become good player - we hope, but next year is asking too much.  The Jets have too many holes..

With a rookie you start over and the fan base will have patience, give you time, and understand you're in a rebuild process.

Simply put, the Jets can't keep Sam.  The negatives far outweigh the positives.

And what happens if rookie QB X starts out 0-3 and SF and Darnold start out 3-0? 

And you have a 1 of 2 options of being correct...

[Jetpain]

4 minutes ago, C Mart said:

Not saying you’re wrong but nowadays it’s tough to do that, especially coming off a 2 win season. I don’t see this fan base, the NY media, ticket buying customers  being that patient. 

I agree with you but listening to the fans & media and rushing these young QB's has had poor results.  

[FidelioJet]

4 minutes ago, C Mart said:

And what happens if rookie QB X starts out 0-3 and SF and Darnold start out 3-0? 

And you have a 1 of 2 options of being correct...

Nah...Getting rid of Sam is where the majority of the fan base is.  

Moreover, the fans aren't going to be boing Zach Wilson and the offense because Sam Darnold and the 49ers are playing well.

Keeping Sam is a much larger risk.

[Peace Frog]

48 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

Well I never wanted Quinnen traded for a 5th rounder.  I did want him traded for a 'Huge Bounty of picks' that the interested team kept coming back with.

Cutting him and taking the massive cap hit would have been the prudent move. 

We shoulda drafted the guy the Bills took. 
 

Lol. 

[addage]

Great article. And great comments.

 The dump Sam/draft Zack group have good points and a lot of evidence supporting their position.

I am a keep Sam guy conditionally. If you keep Sam, then you have to trade down—maybe even twice. So the goal is to add 2-3 top 100 this year and at least a first day pick next year. If that can be done, I vote to take a flyer on Sam.

That would give us 6-8 picks in the top 100 this year. Those picks—even with a dud or 2–would fill a lot of gaping holes on our team. Adding in FA, you add 7-9 starters to the roster. Gargantuan change.

IF Sam is a dud, you have 4 day 1 picks in 2022 to move up and draft a QB.  Not a happy thought but you have the draft capital to do it.  If Sam shows that he can play, the rebuild continues.

 If you draft Wilson, that process is far slower.  You have the risk that Wilson also fails.  Any top QB draft choice can be a bust, a journeyman or a legitimate starter.  You have about a 1 in 4 chance of getting a starter who improves your team.

Sam is worth the risk.

 

[C Mart]

2 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

Nah...Getting rid of Sam is where the majority of the fan base is.  

Moreover, the fans aren't going to be boing Zach Wilson and the offense because Sam Darnold and the 49ers are playing well.

Keeping Sam is a much larger risk.

Majority?  Based on? 

 

[FidelioJet]

1 minute ago, C Mart said:

Majority?  Based on? 

 

Based on being on the site far too often....

Do you not believe more than half the people here want Sam gone?

I didn't take a survey but that seems to be my perception.  Maybe I'm wrong.

[C Mart]

12 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

Based on being on the site far too often....

Do you not believe more than half the people here want Sam gone?

I didn't take a survey but that seems to be my perception.  Maybe I'm wrong.

I didn’t know this site, as good as it is, makes up the voting fan base 

And wasn’t this site calling for QW to be traded?  

And wasn’t this site 75% happy when Darnold was the pick? 

[Phillyjet]

6 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

Based on being on the site far too often....

Do you not believe more than half the people here want Sam gone?

I didn't take a survey but that seems to be my perception.  Maybe I'm wrong.

Think there is a solid group of folks who would prefer to trade down and take one of the playmakers like Waddle, Chase or Smith; vs a tackle/guard.  
 

I’ve watched every failed qb for the Jets over the last 40 years.  Sam has flashed. He’s not Sanchez but he can’t do it alone.  I like the three year bridge deal and building the team. QBs on spin cycle are getting us nowhere.

[Grandy]

darnold sux

grandy out ✌️

[Biggs]

In theory if Sam is great with a team around him, why would he sign a cheap 3 year deal?  Conversely if he's worth more on a 3 year deal and we didn't want to keep him why wouldn't we sign him to a 3 year deal and trade him?  If the author is right we should try and sign him to a 3 year deal if we want to keep him or if we want to trade him.   I suspect that's simply magical thinking.  If I was Sam's agent and I believed in him no way I'm signing a 3 year deal coming off of last years production.

Essentially the author believes Sam hasn't scratched the surface yet.  What that says to me is Sam is an NFL prospect who's as good as Zach Wilson as an NFL prospect.  Wilson will cost us less for 4 years than Sam will for 3 years by a lot.  Wilson will also come with a below market 5th year option.  

The question this former GM didn't address is what we can get for the 2 pick and what we can get for Darnold with a 3 year contract at below market for a quality starting QB prospect who hasn't scratched the surface of his talent.   A team can be built with draft picks and money.  Sam cost more money, the 2 pick is worth more than Sam will bring.  The question is how much more money and how much less in trade?  Without knowing that viable the article isn't very helpful.  

[Greensleeves]

3 hours ago, kdels62 said:

Because who cares what Darnold’s representation wants? What is the benefit to the Jets to give Darnold a raise while he performs as the worst QB in the league. He mentions it, calls it outside of the box, mentions TEAM building but does not give a reason why the extension benefits the Jets. 

Exactly. And we would have plenty of picks over the next couple of years to build a great team around Wilson. Also a ton of FA money. The building a team narrative doesn't work - we will be doing that with or without Sam. It's more of an issue with Watson and trading away picks. Also, the narrative you build a team and add the most important piece later through the draft is nonsense IMO. Who effectively did that - and don't say KC - they had excellent QB play before Mahomes played a down. You can't stick a young QB into a team ready to win now - then you have to wait for their development - which may be the slowest of any position on the field. I think it was Simms that was saying this as well. The QB needs time in an offense and has to gel with the line, WRs, TE, etc.

[Dunnie]

Article is decent and well thought out ... dismisses the flights of fancy the Watson bandwagon is stricken with outright.

He espouses the exact same thoughts that I and many others here have about team building.

He also likes Wilson's potential.and acknowledges that keeping Sam might be the right thing to do .. but because he will need an extension soon ... could be problematic.

He likes the idea of trading back multiple times at least once ... nabbing Wilson if he is still there.

Seems like a smart guy.

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[Icer]

Sure would be nice if the former #3 pick in the NFL draft played better than the 33rd ranked QB in the league so that this position could be defensible. But it's not

[Biggs]

All Mac has to do is build the 68 Colts around Sam and hope we don't face a QB like Namath in the SB.  Not coincidentally Earl Morrall replaced Unitas when he was hurt that year and was All pro.  He still wasn't good enough with a historically great team to beat the Jets with Joe Namath at QB.  He was good enough to take them to 13 and 1 and destroy two teams in the Playoffs.  When he finally faced a team with a great QB he saw ghosts.  

[CSNY]

1 hour ago, HawkeyeJet said:

Nobody's right if everybody's wrong.

Young people speaking their minds 

Reminds me of  a lyric from a great song ?

[HawkeyeJet]

Just now, CSNY said:

Young people speaking their minds 

Reminds me of  a lyric from a great song ?

One of may favorite singular lyrics of all time.  

[68JET11]

3 hours ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

Always enjoy how folks attack/defend the source of an opinion.

It was a good read and a reasonably well-thought-out examination of the situation. 

You don't have to agree with his conclusion, nor admire his resume to say "yea, that's about the situation we're in".

Many of the most thoughtful posters on this site have echoed those same sentiments, whether it was @Doggin94it posting about the logic behind a Darnold extension or @Beerfish routinely mentioning the wisdom using the #2 overall to trade down and acquire a lot of talent instead of rolling the dice on another quarterback.

Who cares? It's a good piece. It's far better than the hawt takes you're gonna get from most sports media. 

Me too lol...

[Larz]

, “If the Jets had hatched a plan to destroy Sam Darnold's career from the start, what would they have changed?” My response is NOTHING. They have executed that plan to perfection. The truth sometimes hurts. 
 

 

[68JET11]

1 hour ago, C Mart said:

I didn’t know this site, as good as it is, makes up the voting fan base 

And wasn’t this site calling for QW to be traded?  

And wasn’t this site 75% happy when Darnold was the pick? 

Shhhhh, you're not supposed to let them know they were wrong lol...

[addage]

58 minutes ago, Biggs said:

All Mac has to do is build the 68 Colts around Sam and hope we don't face a QB like Namath in the SB.  Not coincidentally Earl Morrall replaced Unitas when he was hurt that year and was All pro.  He still wasn't good enough with a historically great team to beat the Jets with Joe Namath at QB.  He was good enough to take them to 13 and 1 and destroy two teams in the Playoffs.  When he finally faced a team with a great QB he saw ghosts.  

Namath played great that day.  But so did Snell and Boozer.  The OL was stout all day.  The DL played lights out.  The secondary made quite a few key plays--and they were not the strength of the team.  Just had a good day.

Snell, Sauer, Plunkett, Grantham, Biggs were all pro bowl players.  Don Maynard, Pete Lammons, Winston Hill were as good as any out there at the time.  Philbin was a great pass rusher--made them miserable.

In other words, it was a team win.  Namath had the charisma but he did not carry  the team.  It was a joint victory.

[addage]

1 hour ago, Biggs said:

All Mac has to do is build the 68 Colts around Sam and hope we don't face a QB like Namath in the SB.  Not coincidentally Earl Morrall replaced Unitas when he was hurt that year and was All pro.  He still wasn't good enough with a historically great team to beat the Jets with Joe Namath at QB.  He was good enough to take them to 13 and 1 and destroy two teams in the Playoffs.  When he finally faced a team with a great QB he saw ghosts.  

Namath played great that day.  But so did Snell and Boozer.  The OL was stout all day.  The DL played lights out.  The secondary made quite a few key plays--and they were not the strength of the team.  Just had a good day.

Snell, Sauer, Plunkett, Grantham, Biggs were all pro bowl players.  Don Maynard, Pete Lammons, Winston Hill were as good as any out there at the time.  Philbin was a great pass rusher--made them miserable.

In other words, it was a team win.  Namath had the charisma but he did not carry  the team.  It was a joint victory.

[addage]

PS--one of the great sports days of my life.

[rangerous]

pretty balanced discussion of darnold vs wilson.  darnold has had such a bad time for his career so far it's pretty logical to think that's why he hasn't put up the number or wins.  and it's also logical to think that with either guy a new coaching staff is starting from square one.  the one major thing =darnold does have going for hi is 3 seasons of nfl experience.  it may not be great experience but it is still experience that wilson or any other rookie will not have.  darnold biggest downside (assuming he plays to the level his team is capable of) is his high salary cap number going into next season and beyond.  at least until he starts showing way more it's not likely he'll get a salary approaching russell wilson or patrick mahomes.

[GaryM]

3 hours ago, CanadaSteve said:

Sorry, did you not read the article?  I suggest you read the article.

Better yet, maybe he can have someone read it to him, maybe if he hears it aloud he might comprehend it.

[BroadwayRay]

The guy who wrote this article was essentially sh*t-canned from the NFL GMing ranks at the age of 41, which is when good GMs are just starting to blossom. (He later served as "GM" for a couple of years in Miami under Nick Saban, who was the actual GM).

Now he's GM of the XFL Houston Roughnecks? And he hosts a podcast? (looking for the clicky, clickies with this crack analysis no doubt).

On the idea of extending Darnold: I'm going to brush aside the diplomacy on this one and just say whoever endorses this is a ******* idiot. It would be akin to extending Geno Smith after he was punched in the face. If Douglas does this (he won't, thank God), he should be punched in the face, too.

[jeremy2020]

6 hours ago, Morrissey said:

This idea that Sam Darnold hasn’t scratched the surface of his talent is group think at this point and not based on anything we’ve seen on field. Sam is well liked personally by the national and local media. I believe that’s where this comes from.  He wouldn’t be getting this benefit if he wasn’t well liked, he’d be described as he has performed, as one of the worst starting QB’s in the NFL.

If a sh*thead like baker played like Sam did over the last 3 years... he'd be getting roasted harder than Jamarcus Russel. 

 

"Sam's a good kid though so obviously, despite being one of the worst for 3 straight seasons.. *HE* can turn it around"

[joewilly12]

On 3/7/2021 at 2:22 PM, C Mart said:

This might be the best overall article about Douglas and Jets hierarchy regarding their upcoming decision. 
 

Randy Mueller: Sam Darnold vs Zach Wilson 

The answer to this question holds the key to unlocking many things. The New York Jets sit in the “power position” at #2 in this year’s NFL Draft. It’s the most intriguing spot with the widest array of consequences, effecting not only the Jets, and the career trajectory of their general manager, but also several other NFL teams and their ability to retool and advance their franchises forward. 

This is truly a career defining move for the Jets first time GM, Joe Douglas, who is entering year three on the job, to mixed results. Douglas is on his second head coach, has a roster still devoid of NFL talent, depth and is in a market where everyone outside your building has all the answers. He has to decide whether to keep his third year QB, Sam Darnold, or draft everybody’s flavor of the month, BYU QB Zach Wilson. 

The degree of difficulty in making this decision is HIGH and the levels of intel you need to consider are historically complicated. However, let me remind you of the goal of every NFL GM — to build a TEAM worthy of consistently competing for a Super Bowl title year after year. This task does not come with a definitive “how too book”. I would, however, suggest one reads the chapter on “best practices”. This decision on who your quarterback will be in the future cannot be made in a vacuum.

The key, for my money, is the word TEAM. Yes, you need a QB. However, you also need a way to keep said QB upright. You also need weapons to stretch the field. You need a running game designed (and there are many ways to do it) to play complimentary football with your defense and situational football offensively (clock management and the like) that allows you to win games. And we have not even got to the other side of the ball yet. We would all love to have the next Patrick Mahomes or Tom Brady but for my money, the untold story of both the Kansas City Chiefs and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers was how well their defenses played and the completeness of their overall rosters. 

Listen, nobody likes Zach Wilson more than me. I was singing his praises midway thru his 2020 season on The Football GM podcast/The Athletic. He has top level NFL arm talent and he can process information, both pre and post snap. Wilson gets the ball out on time. He can anticipate like an NFL veteran and he can either throw with touch or drive the ball. However, best of all, Wilson operates both from the pocket and on the move with a delivery that fixes a lot of problems that schemes and play calling can’t make up for. He also shows consistent accuracy at all levels of the field and his instincts and dynamic playmaking ability make him ready to go from jump street for whichever team picks him. 

However, I also believe that current Jets QB, Sam Darnold, has not scratched the surface of how good he can be, if given a chance under the right circumstances, as well. I am going to steal the best description of Darnold's situation that I have heard to-date-from anyone. It came from my podcast co-host and national NFL writer for The Athletic, Mike Sando. Sando said, “If the Jets had hatched a plan to destroy Sam Darnold's career from the start, what would they have changed?” My response is NOTHING. They have executed that plan to perfection. The truth sometimes hurts. 

Darnold has flashed the same skill set that many of us identified in college at USC. He is athletic and he has the arm strength to make all the throws. Darnold can move inside the pocket by resetting his feet (to avoid rush and contact) to get the ball out cleanly and timely vs pressure and he can throw on the run while scrambling in either direction. He makes throws with accuracy beyond what his completion percentage would tell you. Let me remind you, some thought Buffalo QB Josh Allen could never change his completion percentage either. They were wrong and there were predictable reasons. Furthermore, Darnold anticipates receivers coming open and shows natural instincts for playing the position at a much higher level than his production numbers to date would indicate. He will make you say “Wow” when you study the tape. As an evaluator, I think it’s way too early to give up on him as an NFL starting QB. Sure, he will make a bone-head decision on occasion when trying to do too much, but those risks and decision-making under pressure are not fatal flaws. I think Darnold is confident in his ability. Unfortunately, the system he has been asked to run (X 2 now) has not given him ample options and answers of where to go with the ball AND the quality of roster around him has been dreadful on both sides of the ball. 

If you want to answer the question that the Jets and specifically Joe Douglas has in front of him, you have to look big picture. I actually like both QB’s enough to say, “We can win with either.” The real question should be, which one allows us to build the most talented and deepest team around him going forward? 

If you, like me, think you can win with either guy, then proceed this way. How many boxes in the team building manual do either option allow you to check? Get out your score cards and make your lists of the other positions of need on this 2 win team and what either choice allows you to do in filling out the rest of your team building concerns. What can we parlay the #2 pick in the NFL Draft into this year? Can we slide back more than once and acquire chips to build with? Ask all the pertinent questions.

One critical element that must be considered, and doesn’t get enough attention, is Darnold’s contract. I do think you have to factor money and contract (and its length) in to any decision. It’s been said by many who analyze the NFL that a rookie QB on a rookie contract gives you salary cap flexibility to build without the albatross of a $35M a year commitment of a second contract that has been allocated to the position. That is true and an obvious advantage. To that end, Wilson on a rookie deal vs Darnold on a franchise type deal would be a big difference and would tip the scales in Wilson’s direction, at least when it comes to money. But, what if Darnold and his representation really wants him be the QB of the Jets? What if he believes in the new staff and the Matt LaFluer/Kyle Shanahan style offensive scheme that is being installed? A three-year bridge deal, with no franchise tag, no trade, and reasonable money (say $20/25M a year) that makes him a total free agent, without strings attached at age 27, might just make some sense for both sides. Maybe there is a club option and/or other guarantees, but my point is a three-year commitment is an eternity in the NFL. It has to be a win-win for both sides to consider. It allows the club to plan and build out their team around those cap numbers. Stability sometimes outweighs the new flashy toy. Sure, you are betting on yourself in Darnold's case, but it would put him in an unprecedented situation and would also give the Jets more time for him to develop and move further down the road to winning. If the Jets trade Darnold, he’s not getting any new deal and will be on a one year prove it or get cut scenario. 

I know. A contract extension for Darnold, are you kidding? All I am saying is the Jets need to explore some middle ground in this situation. They really need to think outside the box. I harken back to the original goal of the GM — to build a TEAM worthy of consistently competing for a Super Bowl. No decision is made without other ramifications being discussed. This type of discussion exists within the walls of a well-run NFL franchise and that’s why I always want to make sure, I’m not the smartest guy in the room. Having a well-versed team of decision makers by my side allows the GM to sleep a little better. Good luck Joe. 

https://www.muellerfootball.com/post/sam-darnold-vs-zach-wilson

@Charlie Brown  Is the video you posted the same as this article. 

Save me a listen. 

Thanks 

[Charlie Brown]

3 minutes ago, joewilly12 said:

@Charlie Brown  Is the video you posted the same as this article. 

Save me a listen. 

Thanks 

It is an interview with Randy after the article..... He restated some things and was asked for the support of why?

[flgreen]

Muller was perhaps even a worst GM then Macc.  That's going some.  Didn't listen to what he had to say, but this guy was VERY BAD with the Fish. Think he won 6 games in 2 years, including a 1-15 season

[joewilly12]

4 minutes ago, Charlie Brown said:

It is an interview with Randy after the article..... He restated some things and was asked for the support of why?

I asked to save me a listen if  it was the same as the article. Thats all. Thanks 

[C Mart]

Darnold’s 5th option $18.8m  

 

[kdels62]

So why would we extend Darnold?

[ncjetman]

makes too much sense for many on this board to accept - at this point i go with sam one more year - with bounty from trading out of 2 we should have 3 1’s to play with next year if needed to secure new qb - plus extra picks this year to build talent on basically talentless team - like i said makes way too much sense


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

[MaxAF]

Really on the fence with this one.

Sam’s got 3 years in the league. I really can’t put all the stink on him. I think the crappy coaching and lack of protection has cause his stagnant growth. Can Lafleur remake him with a newly infused OL and some better route runners and superior receivers? Unknown. 
 

On the other side is Wilson. With his Jim McMahon headband and an overly frail frame which concerns me. Plus he actually looks like a girl I dated in HC... which is pretty scary. I don’t know if I could watch that every week. However, he could turn out to be great and I would hate for the Jets to miss that opportunity. One thing though the transition from college to pro is another level. He looks amazing in his college play but the game is much faster in the NFL. The windows for passing close quicker and every player is elite compared to most college players who will retired from football and pursue their academic successes. Kinda leaning towards new beginnings with Wilson. But wouldn’t be crazy disappointed if they trade down for more picks and keep Darnold. My bet is if they like what they see I his pro day debut Sammy is history.