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2021 NFL Draft Mega-thread: News, Rumors, and Discussion


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Oh man, @joewilly12 is gonna poop his depends.

I'm getting a little sick of seeing 100 different topics being created to discuss pretty much the same thing, so I figured make a thread where it can all go down in one spot, separate from the FA thre

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1 hour ago, Beerfish said:

If we drafted a friggin TE at 3 after a slight move down I'd kick Douglas in the nuts.

Pitts would be a total mccagnan pick.

 

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8 minutes ago, Paradis said:

I know there’s a litany of reasons why they would do this - but... doesn’t it feel like it always going to be this way. 

 

I don't get this, I'd guess the ticket office and web designers have no information on who the next qb of the jets will be but you think they would just stick Becton's face on the screen heading to save any of this s***e from happening.

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14 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

If JD truly wants to roll with Sam AND wants to maximize his positioning then it's pretty simple... get to #4 with Atlanta.  #4 is the first possible spot where a non-QB will go.  QBs are going 1, 2, 3 in this Draft.  Some are suggesting a QB could go 4th as well.... I'm 50/50 on that.  But if the Jets want the first non-QB such as Kyle Pitts that is the spot to get the pick of the litter.  Need to stay in front of Miami for sure and likely Cincy as well, although I believe Cincy is going with either Sewell or Slater.

Yep, trading with Atlanta would be ideal if the Jets are rolling with Sam. The Jets would get their pick of non-QB premium position players and Atlanta would get their pick of QB's rather than leftovers.

 

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25 minutes ago, adobolo2 said:

I don't get this, I'd guess the ticket office and web designers have no information on who the next qb of the jets will be but you think they would just stick Becton's face on the screen heading to save any of this s***e from happening.

You guys are all overthinking this. 

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15 hours ago, Mogglez said:

I’ve been close a few times.

I think passing on multiple good QB prospects, to draft a TE (albeit a very good one) 2nd overall, would be it for me.

How about an LT that's very likely to be a 10 year All Pro and possible HOF player. I think of Parcells passing on Orlando Pace.

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12 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

And once again Mike McCagnan has grabbed 'the best player in the draft!'

Please don’t ever compare Kyle Pitts to the long list of asinine picks that tool made. 

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On 3/29/2021 at 11:59 AM, Patriot Killa said:

 

Im not sure what to make of this.  If Bama is blitzed do their better linemen pick up the blitz and give Jones more time?   Are his receivers so much better that they separate quicker and he can just throw it up and let them go get it?   Im not saying these stats arent valid but with so many variables its hard to know what they indicate.   Was there a game or games where Jones was running for his life and constantly under pressure?

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4 minutes ago, slats said:

I still think taking the QB is the riskier move. If you take the QB and he busts, that's it, you've blown that #2 overall pick and probably wasted a couple years figuring that out. 

If you get the massive haul for the pick and Darnold sucks and Wilson is the new NFL darling, well, no one really expected Darnold to be great and he still has all those extra picks he got from the trade to build the team and fix the QB spot. If the rest of his draft looks good (particularly whomever he chose at, say, #8), that would also soften the blow. I know I'm in the minority, but I do think Darnold could (and maybe just would) improve to at least in the middle of the pack statistically in this offense with an improved OL and receivers. I also think it would be a better way to install their program with the veteran QB in place. If you take the QB #2, then everything in Saleh and LaFluer's first year will be about that QB. Not the easiest way to get up & running. 

All that said, I still lean towards them taking the QB as of right now. But I think as far as the importance of being right is concerned, they really have to be right with that QB if that's the way they go. 

Yes, the only back door (risk wise) now is to trade right out of #2 for those three first round picks. Then he can say his approach wasn’t QB centric, it was roster wide

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3 minutes ago, Bowles Movement said:

Im not sure what to make of this.  If Bama is blitzed do their better linemen pick up the blitz and give Jones more time?   Are his receivers so much better that they separate quicker and he can just throw it up and let them go get it?   Im not saying these stats arent valid but with so many variables its hard to know what they indicate.   Was there a game or games where Jones was running for his life and constantly under pressure?

You have to look at this is a function of the offense. As good as Harris was, Smith won the MVP for a reason. he was Jones’ safety valve and had a big part of that rating 

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15 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

If JD truly wants to roll with Sam AND wants to maximize his positioning then it's pretty simple... get to #4 with Atlanta.  #4 is the first possible spot where a non-QB will go.  QBs are going 1, 2, 3 in this Draft.  Some are suggesting a QB could go 4th as well.... I'm 50/50 on that.  But if the Jets want the first non-QB such as Kyle Pitts that is the spot to get the pick of the litter.  Need to stay in front of Miami for sure and likely Cincy as well, although I believe Cincy is going with either Sewell or Slater.

I'd think the Jets would need Atlanta's #4 overall, their second rounder, and their first next year at a bare minimum to get that deal done. Also think the Falcons wouldn't mind picking from who dropped to #4 at QB for themselves to sit for all or most of the year behind Ryan. 

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On 3/29/2021 at 12:12 PM, Samtorobby47 said:

Just seems dumb to do if you’re taking a QB at 2. 
Then what? You let him walk for nothing next year?

If they arent getting great offers for Sam now maybe they think they can improve that with a good preseason and/or playing him till the trade deadline.

if he is looking more capable or a team loses their starter , he might fetch more at that point.  

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15 minutes ago, slats said:

I still think taking the QB is the riskier move. If you take the QB and he busts, that's it, you've blown that #2 overall pick and probably wasted a couple years figuring that out. 

If you get the massive haul for the pick and Darnold sucks and Wilson is the new NFL darling, well, no one really expected Darnold to be great and he still has all those extra picks he got from the trade to build the team and fix the QB spot. If the rest of his draft looks good (particularly whomever he chose at, say, #8), that would also soften the blow. I know I'm in the minority, but I do think Darnold could (and maybe just would) improve to at least in the middle of the pack statistically in this offense with an improved OL and receivers. I also think it would be a better way to install their program with the veteran QB in place. If you take the QB #2, then everything in Saleh and LaFluer's first year will be about that QB. Not the easiest way to get up & running. 

All that said, I still lean towards them taking the QB as of right now. But I think as far as the importance of being right is concerned, they really have to be right with that QB if that's the way they go. 

Any player can bust, and even a good player taken in the top 10 can be incidental to success like adams.  And also, i think being a chicken to take a qb at 2 who you like is worse than keeping a crappy qb and building around the position that will one day be upgraded hopefully.  

I love pitts, but if douglas trades out and wilson is good right away there will be few on this board willing to support him if darnold continues to suck.  Most will be calling for his head by week 5.

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14 minutes ago, Paradis said:

You have to look at this is a function of the offense. As good as Harris was, Smith won the MVP for a reason. he was Jones’ safety valve and had a big part of that rating 

hard to blitz the offense because of all the RPO built into their run schemes.  If youre going to blitz a backer you have to bring a safety into the box for run support, which triggers the RPO (in their offense its the glance), and then boom smith/waddle/metchie whoever is off for about 25 yards.   With the talent they have at WR its extremely hard to stop. 

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1 hour ago, football guy said:

I agree. I do know the Jets love Kyle Pitts, and with the way people speak about him it wouldn't shock me if he was their highest rated TE/WR ever, but this administration also doesn't place a premium on skill position players. The only way they pass up on taking a QB is if a team makes them an offer than ensures them "generational wealth" in the form of draft assets. 

The theory they had, which we now know was Douglas's brainchild, was that Darnold is good enough and has enough potential to consider passing up a QB if the return were to warrant it. It wasn't like the Jets would be doing what the 49ers did and pass up on a QB in favor of Hoyer and a rookie (although Kyle Shanahan admitted it was because he planned to sign Cousins). It was because they knew they had a guy with enough "franchise QB qualities" that it would be a solid hedge, and it only helped Sam that everyone in the building loves him. If he didn't work out they would have so many options: acquire a veteran or draft one in 2022, but what's more important would be that the team wasn't QB centric. If you created a generational pipeline of talent year-to-year using draft assets at positions around the QB, it wouldn't matter who the QB is. 

I'm aware the reports out there that Joe loves Zach Wilson, and the look on Joe's face sold it. I don't doubt that. But I do know that he entered this offseason with a plan, and that plan was to figure out the Jets best way to build a sustainable winner. The process they had in mind - evaluate the QBs vs. Darnold then start vetting out trades (haven't done it yet, at least officially) - was because they wanted to try and quantify how much better building a team around the #2 QB could be vs. building a talent rich roster around the QB for the foreseeable future. There's a reality that exists where Zach Wilson can be one of the best QBs in the NFL, yet the Jets don't win sh*t and the entire FO gets fired, just as much as there's a reality that Sam Darnold faceplants/Wilson becomes one of the best QBs in the league or vice-a-versa. But assuming that Joe did hit on enough of those picks and Darnold did become at least an average QB, it would result in fostering sustainable success for potentially a decade, with gaps being filled in FA and pipelines being formed via year-to-year acquisitions.

That said, when they had these strategy meetings early in the offseason, I don't think their idea of "compiling assets" was in the form of moving down 1 spot for an additional 2nd round pick. Things change, but the comps used were RGIII trade, Goff trade, Wentz trade. It's something like the 49ers gave up for #3, but I'm guessing the Jets would want  a top 10 pick and additional early pick in 2021 (top 75), possibly a mid-round pick (top 150), and then future picks whether it be 2 future first-round picks, or a future first and a future second. And what's ironic is that if the Jets traded down to say 8, I think they would've done something similar to what MIA-PHI did: move back up to 6 to ensure they grab a top-rated non-QB. If Pitts were there they'd absolutely take him, but they probably would've felt good about Chase and an OL as well. 

I think the Jets see a drop-off after the top 10, and they want to acquire as many good players this year as they can while remaining asset-rich in future years. If they can't get multiple high-end picks that include future first-rounders, I don't think they'll entertain it. I think they will still consider offers for #2, but I simply don't think the market will be there for the kind of ransom they're seeking. At that point they would rather take the 3rd + a conditional 2022 pick for Darnold than take a top 50 second to move down 1 spot... not saying it won't happen, but it's just my pulse on it 

Couple of thoughts come to mind here.

One is the lack of skill position focus makes sense and doesn’t. Doesn’t the Shanahan offense really funnel targets to one dude? I don’t think that guy is on the roster right now. Doesn’t seem ideal for a young quarterback. The 49ers were also able to get production out of their backup quarterbacks with scheme, line play, and skill players.

Another that kind of meshes with that is that as boring as it, Douglas came from Baltimore where they never really made huge investments in the quarterback position and the FO seems tight with Indy that also would rather take on reclamation projects than invest serious draft capital - Ballard’s been on record saying that - because you need to be right. With the high first round bust rate isn’t a quarterback a massive risk for Douglas to take?

Also, how media driven versus actually FO driven is this Zach Wilson hype? Highlights are insane. I was wowed by the arm too during the season, it’s super impressive. I also know very little about quarterback play and was watching highlights. You’ve got the crazy highlight throws, a pro day with more of the same, a year less people are meeting in person, and it seems super easy for the media to pump up this narrative and for Douglas can just sit back and let the conclusions he’s taking Wilson go wild. Reminds me of the JuJu connection everyone made. Wilson just strikes me as more flash over substance and Chris Simms aside some of those who dig in a little more (O’Sullivan, Waldman) see concerns with placement and decision making. Douglas seems like he wouldn’t get as caught into the wow plays. Even just the idea of taking someone who played in clean pockets all year, which was his major year of production. How is that not terrifying?

Last one is more related to the general offseason long trade #2 vs trade Darnold discussion - I think I’m a little lost in one area of it. Early this offseason, pre-FA, trading #2 was deemed more likely. I’d assume the Wilson evaluation hasn’t changed much since then. It also seems to me that since then teams have filled QB needs elsewhere, Darnold’s theoretical value has gone down from where it was previously because of that. Meanwhile the Watson thing, Wilson’s insane pro day, and the big return Miami got for the #3 pick not to mention the likelihood that if teams want a QB prospect they’ll need to get in early because now a likely non-QB team at 3 has been replaced with a lock QB team at 3...I’d think that all drove up the value of the #2 pick. Yet somehow the asset that’s gotten less valuable is more likely to get traded than the asset that’s gotten more value? I’m sure I’m missing something here but as I’m seeing it just doesn’t mesh so much.

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1 hour ago, Paradis said:

That’s a long winded way of saying everything I’ve said in this thread. Everything. The only difference (that none of us know or can know atm) is where his head is w/ regards to the Wilson vs Darnold and picks. What’s the threshold there? We don’t know. 

The biggest rookie mistake Joe made in all of this is not committing to an approach earlier. I get the advantage of waiting for certain draft cycle milestones to pass - but now he’s incurred culpability. If he decides to stay with Darnold and he is as bad - while Wilson is MVP - everyone will say - you evaluated him and Darnold and you made such a horrible decision you’re done. Vice versa. If he went with Wilson and he struggled and was injured and Darnold took his next team to the promised land - Fck you Joe. Had he traded Darnold on January or conversely didnt even pretend to be interested in drafting a QB - he might survive this being wrong. Now?... he has to get it right. 

This would be an argument to keep both on the roster and kick the can down the road a bit.  Have Darnold be the bridge.  And if it clicks in the new system, that's a wonderful problem to have.

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Just now, DoubleDown said:

If Joe Douglas is making moves based on "safer or riskier" to his own job security, we're in big trouble.  I sincerely hope that's not the case.

100%. As much as collecting picks is nice...you can’t keep kicking the can down the road when you’re getting terrible QB play. The selection at two has to be a quarterback. It’s non negotiable.

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54 minutes ago, HighPitch said:

You guys are all overthinking this. 

Agreed.
 

The only potential variable is if Wilson’s medical is showing his shoulder looks like swiss cheese dog sh*t.

Then the pick will be (should be) Fields.

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4 minutes ago, Matt39 said:

100%. As much as collecting picks is nice...you can’t keep kicking the can down the road when you’re getting terrible QB play. The selection at two has to be a quarterback. It’s non negotiable.

I'm not sure where this fear comes from that Douglas will stay at 2 and not take a QB. That ain't happening, fellas. 

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4 minutes ago, Matt39 said:

100%. As much as collecting picks is nice...you can’t keep kicking the can down the road when you’re getting terrible QB play. The selection at two has to be a quarterback. It’s non negotiable.

To clarify, I was talking about selecting Wilson, AND keeping Darnold as a bridge.  Hedges your bets, and creates a competition in the QB room, with the anticipation going in that Darnold is the bridge to Wilson.  Unless the Jets are wowed by an offer for Darnold, I prefer this solution.  Would rather trade the difference between a 3rd round pick (if we were lucky to receive in a trade) and the comp pick for darnold, to let that competition unfold. 

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1 hour ago, section314 said:

Agree. I think if there was a swap with the 49rs, it would be the first of two trades for the Jets. First, swap 2 for 3, a player and maybe pick 102. Then, at 3, the next trade would be with a 2nd team in the top 10 that wants another QB, or someone else. That's where the bigger prize is. Would think Bengals, Panthers or Broncos. It's all just fun speculation, but don't think out of the question. Put it this way, no crazier than picking a TE at #2.

Too much risk-it, not enough brisket. It could work if you followed the same blueprint MIA-SF-PHI did, but there isn't a big market to move up as high as 2/3. SF ultimately was the primary team, and they acknowledge they paid a premium to move up early to ensure they get at least their 3rd guy. 

Outstanding teams who can plausibly move up into the top 3 for a QB? Atlanta (4), Carolina (8), Denver (9), New England (15).

Atlanta does not appear to be motivated to move. Carolina is a team that could change winds easily, but they're really the only one and the narrative emitting from their offices is that they only will pay that elite price for Deshaun Watson if his name is cleared/may hold out for him in 2022, and may ultimately decide going for the 4th-5th guy is more equitable than trading up for the 2nd-3rd one. Denver will be opportunistic; I wouldn't rule them out but its also not Paton's philosophy to mortgage draft picks. New England will be big QB trade up players, but Jets won't consider them a partner for a variety of reasons. 

 

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2 minutes ago, Phillyjet said:

To clarify, I was talking about selecting Wilson, AND keeping Darnold as a bridge.  Hedges your bets, and creates a competition in the QB room, with the anticipation going in that Darnold is the bridge to Wilson.  Unless the Jets are wowed by an offer for Darnold, I prefer this solution.  Would rather trade the difference between a 3rd round pick (if we were lucky to receive in a trade) and the comp pick for darnold, to let that competition unfold. 

Sure, but those things don’t happen anymore.   When was the last time the Jets had a legit QB comp? 

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3 hours ago, HighPitch said:

TE=one of the least important positions in the game. Yes. if you have to rank them, it is true

The Patriots and the Chiefs say hi on that one!

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