Per sources, Jets could offer Kirk Cousins fully guaranteed contract. (Merged Cousins Jets $$$ thread)

[Dcat]

18 hours ago, Jetster said:

Listen, we are all in agreement on that! And, if he was THAT BAD along with Petty who sucks too, how do you pass on Deshaun Watson? Water under the bridge now.

we passed on Teddy Bridgewater too.  

[Beerfish]

3 hours ago, Flushing Roots said:

Our luck we'll give Cousins 30 a year guaranteed and he'll go down like Vinnie in game 1 in '99.

IF the Jets sign Cousins we will soon find out if Mac is a total moron or not.  If they sign this guy long term for big dollars and do not make the O-line a total priority in the rest of Fa and the draft he should be fired on the spot.

His history in Texas and so far here is very troubling in that regard.

[bitonti]

Excerts from Mac's diary.

Kirk Cousins money grab, day 45

"Dear Diary, Negotiations are going well. We are so close to sealing the deal. Right now it stands at 180 million dollars. We've long since stopped competing against other franchises. I just like to compete against myself in these situations. Ya know it's like an auction where you hold all the paddles!

"The cash should be easy, Woody says he knows someone down at the treasury, maybe spin up the printing presses for an afternoon. It's these incidentals that are getting tough. Opening up KC8 sports training facilities in Xanadu. That's doable. The clause to never get into any moving vehicle with Robby Anderson is just good common sense. But where are we going to find a mating pair of Giant Pandas? "

"I'll be so happy when this is all over and all the checks clear and Kirk Cousins can move into the guest bedroom (or maybe I'll move into his LOL!) We can be a happy family get down the business of winning a Super Bowl.

There are some troubling signs though, diary. We were talking, and Kirk didn't seem to show any recognition at the word 'Playoffs.' He said "Play...what?" like he never heard it before. Also when we were walking by the Lombardi trophy that Joe Willy acquired in the deal with Satan, his face went slack. He looked right at it and said 'It doesn't look like anything to me.'

I'm sure that was nothing. Jeremy and Todd can fill him in on what it means to be a winner. Who needs the playoffs when you can win the offseason? Luvs and kisses diary, I'm about to go send Kirk an edible arrangement... AGAIN!"   

[Dcat]

16 hours ago, Lupz27 said:

You are very confused on how to accurately assess a decision to pay a QB like Cousins a certain amount of money that you have clearly shown in your posts, finally here your getting somewhere thou, there is a very big puzzle, and when you put all the pieces together you can come to a informed decision, spewing stupid nonsense like just his stats is just that stupid for a reason to pay anyone any amount of money.

When I look at the finished puzzle after evaluating Cousins my conclusion is no ******* way at 30-35 million per year, never! You should be fired if you have a roster the Jets have, and do something like this in an effort to go 8-8, and save your job, because that’s exactly what this would be a job saving grab.

I will write this for the last time in big caps so you can’t not see it.

IF THE JETS WERE GOING TO GET KIRK COUSINS FOR A REASONABLE CONTRACT THAT HE IS WORTH, AROUND 18-22 MILLION PER I’D BE EXTREMELY HAPPY AS LONG AS THEY ALSO STILL DRAFTED A QB VERY EARLY IN THE DRAFT WITH ONE OF THEIR FIRST 3 PICKS!!!!!!!

Glad you are so concerned about how Woody spends his money.  Frankly, I couldn't care less how Woody spends his money as long as the Jets will have the cap room to attract the best FAs.  With regard to stats, including Win-Losses, Stafford and Cousins are about the same.  So you are being unrealistic to think that Cousins would take less than him.  

[RSJ]

The Redskins who "realize" this just traded for 34 year-old Alex Smith and then agreed with him on a ~$24m/year extension with 3 years guaranteed.
The Redskins didn't realize they couldn't win with him so much as they realized they couldn't come to terms agreements with him. They offered him long extensions 2 years in a row but were always $1-2m/year short. Yet even after coming up short 2 seasons ago, in 2017 they upped their offer to above what would've gotten a deal done in 2016. 
They wanted him. This is just a matter of 2 sides not coming to agreement. By this year, I think it became a matter of pride/ego, not to offer the same player some $30m/year when they could've had this done 2 years ago at $20m/year or 1 year ago at $24m/year. Alex Smith has proven little (if anything) more than Cousins, since he's the ultimate game manager. The Chiefs had him cheap for 2 more years and they still traded up to get Pat Mahomes. Then after another solid season from Smith, they went with the guy who had 1 inconsequential start in a meaningless week 17 game.

Kirk Cousins is literally the first QB under Snyder to play well. In reality he has been holding the Redskins back from being the Browns. Lets not act like they are a franchise we should trust when it comes to evaluating talent.


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

[Dcat]

12 hours ago, Gastineau Lives said:

Mark Sanchez - Awesome

Kirk Cousins - Sucks

Interesting planet you live on.

I'm deeply worried for his state of mind.

[#27TheDominator]

Can't wait. 

Fully guaranteed contract.  Cut after year three and I can read how it is good his deal was structured this way.  The $60M in dead cap space isn't stopping us from signing anybody.

FWIW, I am a fairly pro-Cousins guy, but the Redskins have made the playoffs more than the Jets since 2006 (4 compared to 3) and they have made them twice since the Jets last trip - once with Cousins, once with Griffith.

[Beerfish]

Well usually the thing we give our Gm the most credit for is how soon can we get out fro under the awful contract he has just handed out so this fully guaranteed bit may be problematic.

[Jet Nut]

17 hours ago, Lupz27 said:

You are very confused on how to accurately assess a decision to pay a QB like Cousins a certain amount of money that you have clearly shown in your posts, finally here your getting somewhere thou, there is a very big puzzle, and when you put all the pieces together you can come to a informed decision, spewing stupid nonsense like just his stats is just that stupid for a reason to pay anyone any amount of money.

When I look at the finished puzzle after evaluating Cousins my conclusion is no ******* way at 30-35 million per year, never! You should be fired if you have a roster the Jets have, and do something like this in an effort to go 8-8, and save your job, because that’s exactly what this would be a job saving grab.

I will write this for the last time in big caps so you can’t not see it.

IF THE JETS WERE GOING TO GET KIRK COUSINS FOR A REASONABLE CONTRACT THAT HE IS WORTH, AROUND 18-22 MILLION PER I’D BE EXTREMELY HAPPY AS LONG AS THEY ALSO STILL DRAFTED A QB VERY EARLY IN THE DRAFT WITH ONE OF THEIR FIRST 3 PICKS!!!!!!!

Who's aiming for 8-8?  Where does his production, of there's a team around him point to 8-8?  The only confused one is the person who just makes blanket statements like. Outings won't or can't win as if he knows.  Just because you want a draft pick at QB.  If I said Baker will never be better than 8-8 you'd call me confused.  And give 1,000 reasons why you'll guess he'll be better than that.  One preseason throw and you had Mahomes a FQB.  Amazing 

As for how much he'll make, you're confused how FA works. It's not a pay scale from best to worse, it's supply, demand and timing.  

[southparkcpa]

1 hour ago, #27TheDominator said:

Can't wait. 

Fully guaranteed contract.  Cut after year three and I can read how it is good his deal was structured this way.  The $60M in dead cap space isn't stopping us from signing anybody.

FWIW, I am a fairly pro-Cousins guy, but the Redskins have made the playoffs more than the Jets since 2006 (4 compared to 3) and they have made them twice since the Jets last trip - once with Cousins, once with Griffith.

In the last 7 years how many teams have been less than us???  NONE!  unless negative counts.

[Paradis]

5 hours ago, BCJet said:

This year seems to me that outside the QBs, Barkley, Nelson and Chubb there is a smaller then usual difference between pick 8 and pick 28.  Would a team really be smarter taking Marcus Davenport at 8 vs Harold Landry at 20+?"  How about connor williams (who IMO isnt even close to an elite prospect) in the top 12 vs Billy Price in the 20s?  Is Calvin Ridley in the top 15 definitely better then James Washington?  

Personally, if we take get Cousins Id be happy with Chubb or Nelson.  If not, I hope a team wants a QB and is willing to trade up and lets get as many guys in the 20-50 range as we can - Oline, an edge prospect, CB, RB, WR.  

I feel like i missed the meeting where we all decided to anoint B. Chubb as a safe pick. I don't see it, at all. He's definitely a talented prospect, but when did a guy with obvious speed/burst concerns warrant a top 5 pick? I wouldn't touch him before the #20-30 

[BigRy56]

If Cousins will come here for the expected price tag of 28mil, then go all in on him. He's a fringe top 10 QB in his prime and would put us in a position to stack the team with talent around him - both with the rest of free agency money and our picks.

If we miss out on him, then hopefully he goes to Cleveland or Denver and that pushes more QBs down to us (or opens the door to a trade up to #1 with Cleveland if we love a prospect).

Either way, this is a win/win scenario. Cousins is a great option and the draft looks stacked with some high-level QB talent. That's nice to have in Jets land.

 

[Paradis]

I just read today we're willing throw 60mil at this c*nt in his first year.... and guarantee his whole contract? And you jackals are just eating it up. 

 

 

[#27TheDominator]

Jason has an article about this:

Are the Jets Prepared to Pay Kirk Cousins $60M in 2018?

Are the Jets Prepared to Pay Kirk Cousins $60M in 2018?

Posted on February 20, 2018 by Jason Fitzgerald

Brian Costello wrote an article yesterday that indicated that the Jets were hot for Kirk Cousins and might be willing to do whatever it takes to get him. The number of $150 million over 5 years was mentioned and I think that is feasible for a team to consider. However the number that did really surprise me was when a source indicated that $60 million in the first year might be what it takes to get a deal done. So I wanted to explore that number and how it could possibly work for the Jets or any other team.

$60 million is a massive first year payout and I have to believe if anyone got to that number Cousins would sign with that team. $60 million in first year salary would represent a raise of nearly 18% from Matt Stafford, the current top earner in the NFL. It would be 29% higher than Derek Carr’s and nearly 41% higher than Jimmy Garoppolo’s first year salary.  I would imagine you would have to go back to Peyton Manning’s 2004 record setting contract to see that kind of jump at the position.

What also struck me about that is how you could feasibly structure that on the salary cap. One of the points made about the Jets is how they would frontload the cap portion of the contract, similar to what the 49ers did with Garoppolo. But here we are talking about a salary $17.4 million higher than his number and that would add a new challenge.

The question then is what do the Jets want to do with his 2^nd and 3^rd year salary. The Stafford numbers there are $70.5 and $92M. I would not think that the Jets would want to continue on the 17% raise path and would prefer the more moderate 11% increase that would be indicative of the overall contract APY increase. How does that work out on the cap? Here would be a basic breakdown to comply with the CBA rules.

Year	Base	Prorated	Cap	Dead*	Running Cash
2018	$40,000,000	$4,000,000	$44,000,000	$20,000,000	$60,000,000
2019	$18,000,000	$4,000,000	$22,000,000	$16,000,000	$78,000,000
2020	$24,000,000	$4,000,000	$28,000,000	$12,000,000	$102,000,000
2021	$23,000,000	$4,000,000	$27,000,000	$8,000,000	$125,000,000
2022	$25,000,000	$4,000,000	$29,000,000	$4,000,000	$150,000,000

* Dead money just from the signing bonus not guarantees

The reason the signing bonus is $20 million is to comply with a rule in the CBA that the cap has to be at least half in the 2^nd year to avoid the difference being treated as a signing bonus. You can decrease that number by increasing the 2^nd year salary higher than $18 million, but a team is already a bit compromised by doing the large first year salary.

If you go to the higher year second salary and maintain the same 17.6% raise over two years what would that look like?

Year	Base	Prorated	Cap	Dead*	Running Cash
2018	$45,000,000	$3,000,000	$48,000,000	$15,000,000	$60,000,000
2019	$21,000,000	$3,000,000	$24,000,000	$12,000,000	$81,000,000
2020	$21,000,000	$3,000,000	$24,000,000	$9,000,000	$102,000,000
2021	$23,000,000	$3,000,000	$26,000,000	$6,000,000	$125,000,000
2022	$25,000,000	$3,000,000	$28,000,000	$3,000,000	$150,000,000

This frontloads the contract a bit better but does require more real payments in the second year.

Are either of these feasible?  The Jets should have over $90M in cap room with some basic cuts so a contract like these would give the team between $42 and $46 million in cap space to spend. They would lose close to $6M for rookies, so $36 to $40 million. That would rank in the upper middle tier of the NFL. So they could theoretically still add a few pieces to improve the team.

If the Jets did want to improve the team further I would imagine it would also require the team to spend more on the roster than they ever have. With $60M in cash committed to Cousins and then around $21 or $22 million for rookies, it would bring the Jets cash payroll to around $150 million, give or take a bit, after the expected cuts of Wilkerson, Forte, etc…The only year where the Jets significantly exceeded that number was 2016 where they had a payroll close to $170 million. So it would take a departure from their norms to add a second major piece to the team as well as some other small pieces.

So I think this outlines what a deal might look like between the two sides and how it would work with the team. That said it still would surprise me if the Jets went that high. In my opinion we really have not seen the Jets spend this way on players since the Mike Tannenbaum days when they brought in players like Alan Faneca. They did some big extensions too but post 2011 I can’t really think off too many times where they really went all out for someone to this extent.

Some would say Darrelle Revis in 2015, but Revis’ 1^st year cash was well below that of Richard Sherman and Patrick Peterson. Even by the second year he was under those players, though by a lesser amount.  The Jets bridged that divide by offering an outlandish guarantee to get the deal done. Wilkerson’s extension in 2016 would be another high priced contract but again they were under some true market setting deals on that up front money. He wouldn’t make up that difference unless he made the team in year 3, which we will not do. Other names they were rumored to be after through the years, such as Olivier Vernon, they dropped out as soon as the deals got beyond a reasonable point.

So it would really be a change for the team to do that kind of 1^st year valuation for a player. Doesn’t mean it won’t happen just that it really requires the team to go in a different direction than where they have been. Clearly there is more value in drafting a QB but sitting at 6 may have the team thinking it’s not possible to find one.

If they do sign Cousins it would likely also have to change the narratives coming out of Florham Park about the slow build and how the playoffs are not an immediate goal. I don’t think there is a way to downplay expectations if you sign a $30 million QB so they will really have to add more in free agency to try to meet those objectives.   That isn’t really the way they operate but that change should happen if they were to do this contract.

 

This entry was posted in NFL Free Agency and tagged kirk cousins. Bookmark the permalink.

[Cyberjet]

Just don't believe all this BS being thrown around. Regardless. Mac is in a no win situation with this board. If he signs Cousins for big $$ he's a jerk for spending that much on mediocre talent. If Cousins signs with another team he's a bum GM who can't get it done.

[FidelioJet]

The Jets are all in on Cousins - I honeslty believe they will do WHATEVER it takes.  Unfortunately I also think they'll start HUGE - and not play the negotiation game - essentially bidding against themselves.

The numbers will be so big that no other team will be willing to go that high. 

[Pac]

Don't care how much they give him in year 1 or guarantee him..  at the end of the day it will be right around 30 mil a year average.  whatever..  get it done.

They're not just paying for a good QB... they're paying for his impeccable character and comfort in knowing he never say the wrong thing or be involved in a scandal.

[Dcat]

2 minutes ago, Cyberjet said:

Just don't believe all this BS being thrown around. Regardless. Mac is in a no win situation with this board. If he signs Cousins for big $$ he's a jerk for spending that much on mediocre talent. If Cousins signs with another team he's a bum GM who can't get it done.

and of course, the SOJNW (Same 'ol JetNation whiners) will be right at it.  Sharpening their pitchforks because they know no matter which way it goes, they have enough to troll here for the next several years. 

[#27TheDominator]

Actually, there are a bunch of ways it could go right for Mac.  All he has to do is build a winner.  It doesn't matter how he gets a QB, trade, draft, FA.  Even if he doesn't get one, if the team wins everything this forgiven. The guy had one 10-6 season with no playoffs and people are still cutting him slack. Make the playoffs and everything is good. 

[Augustiniak]

Just now, #27TheDominator said:

 It doesn't matter how he gets a QB

but when cousins signs with denver, and then mccagnan signs someone like aj mccarron out of desperation, will mccags still be looking at qbs in the first round, or will he draft chubb or nelson?  b/c i this this scenario could be his undoing.  loses out on cousins b/c the jets have historically made zero investment on offense, then figure a younger version of mccown is good enough.  

[Paradis]

6 minutes ago, Dcat said:

and of course, the SOJNW (Same 'ol JetNation whiners) will be right at it.  Sharpening their pitchforks because they know no matter which way it goes, they have enough to troll here for the next several years. 

No dude. No way. There's a line of rationality here... Saying things like "Kirk sucks" and "hasn't proven anything" is grounds for conflict, and i've been guilty of such things. When someone tells me stick a sock in it, because Kirk is a starting QB and they get paid... fine. I'm out of line.

But fck telling us we're whiners for saying "WHOA WHOA... say what? 60 mil in year 1, full guaranteed contract...??"

that's a rational god damn point to draw a line in the sand. We;re not crazy for having concerns. YOU should have healthy concerns about such numbers being thrown around

[#27TheDominator]

1 minute ago, Augustiniak said:

but when cousins signs with denver, and then mccagnan signs someone like aj mccarron out of desperation, will mccags still be looking at qbs in the first round, or will he draft chubb or nelson?  b/c i this this scenario could be his undoing.  loses out on cousins b/c the jets have historically made zero investment on offense, then figure a younger version of mccown is good enough.  

Not having a winner will be his undoing.  He has had enough time.  It takes 3 years to COMPLETELY revamp an NFL roster.  This guy came in with a clean slate and here were are sitting on 5-11 with a roster devoid of talent. 

[Dcat]

2 minutes ago, Paradis said:

No dude. No way. There's a line of rationality here... Saying things like "Kirk sucks" and "hasn't proven anything" is grounds for conflict, and i've been guilty of such things. When someone tells me stick a sock in it, because Kirk is a starting QB and they get paid... fine. I'm out of line.

But fck telling us we're whiners for saying "WHOA WHOA... say what? 60 mil in year 1, full guaranteed contract...??"

that's a rational god damn point to draw a line in the sand. We;re not crazy for having concerns. YOU should have healthy concerns about such numbers being thrown around

Of course.  Who said people didn't?  But you have to remember, the numbers you are hearing are being made up by dorks like Cimini, Mehta, Florio, all of whom have nothing to do for the next 4 weeks but ruminate and create false controversy.  Not buying in to whatever they decide to publish.  It's all supposition.  None of the Jets beat reporters have any inside info.  Where's Mike Pettine when you need him?  

[JoJoTownsell1]

4 minutes ago, Paradis said:

No dude. No way. There's a line of rationality here... Saying things like "Kirk sucks" and "hasn't proven anything" is grounds for conflict, and i've been guilty of such things. When someone tells me stick a sock in it, because Kirk is a starting QB and they get paid... fine. I'm out of line.

But fck telling us we're whiners for saying "WHOA WHOA... say what? 60 mil in year 1, full guaranteed contract...??"

that's a rational god damn point to draw a line in the sand. We;re not crazy for having concerns. YOU should have healthy concerns about such numbers being thrown around

I agree with all of this. I am a big Cousins fan, but I need to see how a deal like this would work out long term before I signed off on something as crazy as this. Don't we need some money to address Center? CB? #1 WR? Etc...

Giving Kirk 40 in year 1, vs 30, to help free up money in the long term is OK. But 60 seems like overkill unless there is a detailed explanation of that move. 

[Augustiniak]

2 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

Not having a winner will be his undoing.  He has had enough time.  It takes 3 years to COMPLETELY revamp an NFL roster.  This guy came in with a clean slate and here were are sitting on 5-11 with a roster devoid of talent. 

this offseason is perfect for finally fixing the qb conundrum.  cousins is there and the jets have a ton of cash.  there are qbs in the draft worth taking at 6 even if they don't move up.  

[Paradis]

2 minutes ago, Dcat said:

Of course.  Who said people didn't?  But you have to remember, the numbers you are hearing are being made up by dorks like Cimini, Mehta, Florio, all of whom have nothing to do for the next 4 weeks but ruminate and create false controversy.  Not buying in to whatever they decide to publish.  It's all supposition.  None of the Jets beat reporters have any inside info.  Where's Mike Pettine when you need him?  

maybe you're right, but I'm getting nervous. Everything we're reading is saying the jets are already bending over. 

[MDL_JET]

Just now, Paradis said:

maybe you're right, but I'm getting nervous. Everything we're reading is saying the jets are already bending over. 

Because it's easy to throw huge numbers when A) Everyone knows Jets are desperate for a QB and B)They have a ton of money. Which = Jets will pay anything. 

Costello probably asked his "source" how much they think they'll pay and he responded with "dude, they could give 60 million in one year if they wanted" and ran with it. 

[Warfish]

1 hour ago, Paradis said:

I just read today we're willing throw 60mil at this c*nt in his first year.... and guarantee his whole contract? And you jackals are just eating it up. 

Not sure "eating it up" is the right phrase. 

I think some see this simply as the cost of doing business in the current NFL meta for a Top 10 quality QB. 

But even then, many who support signing Cousins (like me) are not exactly happy at the cost.

With that said, it's the lowest risk, highest immediate reward, likely highest long-term reward move the Jets can make.

Cousins is, right now, a top 10 (maybe top 12) franchise QB.  A QB of the quality the Jets have no had since Pennington (briefly) or O'Brien (briefly) at the least, since Namath at the most. 

Expectations for him here, immediately, would/should be 30 TD's, 4,000 Yards, under 15 INT's.  

His signing saves the Jets from using #6 on a questionable QB prospect, or worse, trading thee-to-four 1st/2nd rounders to get up to select one of the two also questionable prospects of Darnold/Rosen.

While it's possible Darnold/Rosen/Allen/Mayfield over the long term (2+ years out from drafting) may be "better" than Cousins, it's far from assured.

And the Jets as an organization have shown they are simply poor at QB development, for as long as I've been watching them.  

So yes, I've come to accept that the Jets might sign Cousins, and might give him a sweetheart deal for the privilege.  But with that, I expect a level of QB performance we've not see here (beyond flashes from say, Favre, or Fitzpatrick or Pennington) in my lifetime.

Is it risky?  Yes, but less so that a draft pick.  And with those saved draft picks we should (stress should) be able to draft three new starters to support Cousins on the offense, preferably on the line, and perhaps a RB as well.  

There is no prospect in this draft I see as such a clear-cut future pro bowler than I'd sell the farm to get him.  I like Mayfield, but Mayfield is a massive risk.  People who think Rosen and Darnold aren't risks are fooling themselves.  Worse, are the folks who think Bradford/McCarron/Bridgewater/etc. is the better route, when those guys will also command large salaries for materially less performance. 

So I am resigned to this possibility of an expensive Cousins.  Until we see real numbers, I refuse to get worked up over the cost.

What Paradis, is your preferred move this offseason at QB?

[BCJet]

1 hour ago, Paradis said:

I feel like i missed the meeting where we all decided to anoint B. Chubb as a safe pick. I don't see it, at all. He's definitely a talented prospect, but when did a guy with obvious speed/burst concerns warrant a top 5 pick? I wouldn't touch him before the #20-30 

Chubb isnt going to be Von Miller, he isnt that type of player.  I see him as a legitimate 4-3 DE or 3-4 OLB IF he plays strictly the Terrell Suggs role where he can win with speed on the edge, but he can also play the run and beat you with power when rushing the passer.  

To me he has enough athleticism to match his college production and doesnt have any character flags (ie high motor).

[RedBeardedSavage]

39 minutes ago, Paradis said:

No dude. No way. There's a line of rationality here... Saying things like "Kirk sucks" and "hasn't proven anything" is grounds for conflict, and i've been guilty of such things. When someone tells me stick a sock in it, because Kirk is a starting QB and they get paid... fine. I'm out of line.

But fck telling us we're whiners for saying "WHOA WHOA... say what? 60 mil in year 1, full guaranteed contract...??"

that's a rational god damn point to draw a line in the sand. We;re not crazy for having concerns. YOU should have healthy concerns about such numbers being thrown around

 

34 minutes ago, Dcat said:

Of course.  Who said people didn't?  But you have to remember, the numbers you are hearing are being made up by dorks like Cimini, Mehta, Florio, all of whom have nothing to do for the next 4 weeks but ruminate and create false controversy.  Not buying in to whatever they decide to publish.  It's all supposition.  None of the Jets beat reporters have any inside info.  Where's Mike Pettine when you need him?  

After all these wild rumors, if Cousins signs a five-year deal worth a hundred-and-fifty million with ninety million guaranteed, that will seem pedestrian and might convert a bunch of the haters.  

[Tony MaC]

38 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

Jason has an article about this:

Are the Jets Prepared to Pay Kirk Cousins $60M in 2018?

Are the Jets Prepared to Pay Kirk Cousins $60M in 2018?

Posted on February 20, 2018 by Jason Fitzgerald

Year	Base	Prorated	Cap	Dead*	Running Cash
2018	$40,000,000	$4,000,000	$44,000,000	$20,000,000	$60,000,000
2019	$18,000,000	$4,000,000	$22,000,000	$16,000,000	$78,000,000
2020	$24,000,000	$4,000,000	$28,000,000	$12,000,000	$102,000,000
2021	$23,000,000	$4,000,000	$27,000,000	$8,000,000	$125,000,000
2022	$25,000,000	$4,000,000	$29,000,000	$4,000,000	$150,000,000

 

Year	Base	Prorated	Cap	Dead*	Running Cash
2018	$45,000,000	$3,000,000	$48,000,000	$15,000,000	$60,000,000
2019	$21,000,000	$3,000,000	$24,000,000	$12,000,000	$81,000,000
2020	$21,000,000	$3,000,000	$24,000,000	$9,000,000	$102,000,000
2021	$23,000,000	$3,000,000	$26,000,000	$6,000,000	$125,000,000
2022	$25,000,000	$3,000,000	$28,000,000	$3,000,000	$150,000,000

 

 

This entry was posted in NFL Free Agency and tagged kirk cousins. Bookmark the permalink.

Just isolating these two contracts. Those are huge deals, make no mistake but they are also very feasible for the Jets assuming the cap cuts we think will happen do.

One could say we could use that money elsewhere, but:

1. there's still plenty of room to make a few splash signings, maybe not front loaded ones (in fact they'd probably be heavily weighted towards 2019, a year most big free agents would see anyway) but certainly enough to sign other role players at center, CB, RB or Guard. (not all positions but then that's what the draft is for)

2. The jets probably wont be signing every big name just because they have the cash to do so anyway. Like I bet you could make a laundry list of guys who would make the team better and then project their contracts in a way that fits the Jets huge cap space amount. (i.e, instead of signing Cousins lets get these five guys for the same amount!)... But remember that there are other teams and players with other objectives in all of this. We won't get all of them regardless, so why not make one of the ones we can get count?

There would be a lot of stressing out if some thing like the contracts above were given to Kirk, but I think it would be smart management and a good use of resources. 

[Beerfish]

It will tough to feel sorry for a player after they get paid the moon but I will for cousins because he will just get lambasted if he does not play terrific and the jets do not make the playoffs.  I'll probably be at the head of the list.

[RedBeardedSavage]

5 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Not sure "eating it up" is the right phrase. 

I think some see this simply as the cost of doing business in the current NFL meta for a Top 10 quality QB. 

But even then, many who support signing Cousins (like me) are not exactly happy at the cost.

With that said, it's the lowest risk, highest immediate reward, likely highest long-term reward move the Jets can make.

Cousins is, right now, a top 10 (maybe top 12) franchise QB.  A QB of the quality the Jets have no had since Pennington (briefly) or O'Brien (briefly) at the least, since Namath at the most. 

Expectations for him here, immediately, would/should be 30 TD's, 4,000 Yards, under 15 INT's.  

His signing saves the Jets from using #6 on a questionable QB prospect, or worse, trading thee-to-four 1st/2nd rounders to get up to select one of the two also questionable prospects of Darnold/Rosen.

While it's possible Darnold/Rosen/Allen/Mayfield over the long term (2+ years out from drafting) may be "better" than Cousins, it's far from assured.

And the Jets as an organization have shown they are simply poor at QB development, for as long as I've been watching them.  

So yes, I've come to accept that the Jets might sign Cousins, and might give him a sweetheart deal for the privilege.  But with that, I expect a level of QB performance we've not see here (beyond flashes from say, Favre, or Fitzpatrick or Pennington) in my lifetime.

Is it risky?  Yes, but less so that a draft pick.  And with those saved draft picks we should (stress should) be able to draft three new starters to support Cousins on the offense, preferably on the line, and perhaps a RB as well.  

There is no prospect in this draft I see as such a clear-cut future pro bowler than I'd sell the farm to get him.  I like Mayfield, but Mayfield is a massive risk.  People who think Rosen and Darnold aren't risks are fooling themselves.  Worse, are the folks who think Bradford/McCarron/Bridgewater/etc. is the better route, when those guys will also command large salaries for materially less performance. 

So I am resigned to this possibility of an expensive Cousins.  Until we see real numbers, I refuse to get worked up over the cost.

What Paradis, is your preferred move this offseason at QB?

Reasonable, common sense, realistic and without the lazy, tiring 'same-old-planes' pessimism.

Well said.  

[bla bla bla]

1 hour ago, #27TheDominator said:

Jason has an article about this:

Are the Jets Prepared to Pay Kirk Cousins $60M in 2018?

Are the Jets Prepared to Pay Kirk Cousins $60M in 2018?

Posted on February 20, 2018 by Jason Fitzgerald

Brian Costello wrote an article yesterday that indicated that the Jets were hot for Kirk Cousins and might be willing to do whatever it takes to get him. The number of $150 million over 5 years was mentioned and I think that is feasible for a team to consider. However the number that did really surprise me was when a source indicated that $60 million in the first year might be what it takes to get a deal done. So I wanted to explore that number and how it could possibly work for the Jets or any other team.

$60 million is a massive first year payout and I have to believe if anyone got to that number Cousins would sign with that team. $60 million in first year salary would represent a raise of nearly 18% from Matt Stafford, the current top earner in the NFL. It would be 29% higher than Derek Carr’s and nearly 41% higher than Jimmy Garoppolo’s first year salary.  I would imagine you would have to go back to Peyton Manning’s 2004 record setting contract to see that kind of jump at the position.

What also struck me about that is how you could feasibly structure that on the salary cap. One of the points made about the Jets is how they would frontload the cap portion of the contract, similar to what the 49ers did with Garoppolo. But here we are talking about a salary $17.4 million higher than his number and that would add a new challenge.

The question then is what do the Jets want to do with his 2^nd and 3^rd year salary. The Stafford numbers there are $70.5 and $92M. I would not think that the Jets would want to continue on the 17% raise path and would prefer the more moderate 11% increase that would be indicative of the overall contract APY increase. How does that work out on the cap? Here would be a basic breakdown to comply with the CBA rules.

Year	Base	Prorated	Cap	Dead*	Running Cash
2018	$40,000,000	$4,000,000	$44,000,000	$20,000,000	$60,000,000
2019	$18,000,000	$4,000,000	$22,000,000	$16,000,000	$78,000,000
2020	$24,000,000	$4,000,000	$28,000,000	$12,000,000	$102,000,000
2021	$23,000,000	$4,000,000	$27,000,000	$8,000,000	$125,000,000
2022	$25,000,000	$4,000,000	$29,000,000	$4,000,000	$150,000,000

* Dead money just from the signing bonus not guarantees

The reason the signing bonus is $20 million is to comply with a rule in the CBA that the cap has to be at least half in the 2^nd year to avoid the difference being treated as a signing bonus. You can decrease that number by increasing the 2^nd year salary higher than $18 million, but a team is already a bit compromised by doing the large first year salary.

If you go to the higher year second salary and maintain the same 17.6% raise over two years what would that look like?

Year	Base	Prorated	Cap	Dead*	Running Cash
2018	$45,000,000	$3,000,000	$48,000,000	$15,000,000	$60,000,000
2019	$21,000,000	$3,000,000	$24,000,000	$12,000,000	$81,000,000
2020	$21,000,000	$3,000,000	$24,000,000	$9,000,000	$102,000,000
2021	$23,000,000	$3,000,000	$26,000,000	$6,000,000	$125,000,000
2022	$25,000,000	$3,000,000	$28,000,000	$3,000,000	$150,000,000

This frontloads the contract a bit better but does require more real payments in the second year.

Are either of these feasible?  The Jets should have over $90M in cap room with some basic cuts so a contract like these would give the team between $42 and $46 million in cap space to spend. They would lose close to $6M for rookies, so $36 to $40 million. That would rank in the upper middle tier of the NFL. So they could theoretically still add a few pieces to improve the team.

If the Jets did want to improve the team further I would imagine it would also require the team to spend more on the roster than they ever have. With $60M in cash committed to Cousins and then around $21 or $22 million for rookies, it would bring the Jets cash payroll to around $150 million, give or take a bit, after the expected cuts of Wilkerson, Forte, etc…The only year where the Jets significantly exceeded that number was 2016 where they had a payroll close to $170 million. So it would take a departure from their norms to add a second major piece to the team as well as some other small pieces.

So I think this outlines what a deal might look like between the two sides and how it would work with the team. That said it still would surprise me if the Jets went that high. In my opinion we really have not seen the Jets spend this way on players since the Mike Tannenbaum days when they brought in players like Alan Faneca. They did some big extensions too but post 2011 I can’t really think off too many times where they really went all out for someone to this extent.

Some would say Darrelle Revis in 2015, but Revis’ 1^st year cash was well below that of Richard Sherman and Patrick Peterson. Even by the second year he was under those players, though by a lesser amount.  The Jets bridged that divide by offering an outlandish guarantee to get the deal done. Wilkerson’s extension in 2016 would be another high priced contract but again they were under some true market setting deals on that up front money. He wouldn’t make up that difference unless he made the team in year 3, which we will not do. Other names they were rumored to be after through the years, such as Olivier Vernon, they dropped out as soon as the deals got beyond a reasonable point.

So it would really be a change for the team to do that kind of 1^st year valuation for a player. Doesn’t mean it won’t happen just that it really requires the team to go in a different direction than where they have been. Clearly there is more value in drafting a QB but sitting at 6 may have the team thinking it’s not possible to find one.

If they do sign Cousins it would likely also have to change the narratives coming out of Florham Park about the slow build and how the playoffs are not an immediate goal. I don’t think there is a way to downplay expectations if you sign a $30 million QB so they will really have to add more in free agency to try to meet those objectives.   That isn’t really the way they operate but that change should happen if they were to do this contract.

 

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Been preaching this type of deal the past few months (in my mock on my signature). This is the reason Cousins is such a great idea, his cap percentage in years 3-5 when we need to resign our own players will be so much lower than all the top QBs. I understand people not liking Cousins as a players but if people are afraid of the money they need to think again.

[nycdan]

2 minutes ago, Tony MaC said:

 

2. The jets probably wont be signing every big name just because they have the cash to do so anyway. Like I bet you could make a laundry list of guys who would make the team better and then project their contracts in a way that fits the Jets huge cap space amount. (i.e, instead of signing Cousins lets get these five guys for the same amount!)... But remember that there are other teams and players with other objectives in all of this. We won't get all of them regardless, so why not make one of the ones we can get count?

 

This is an important part of the assessment and spot on.  I want Norwell.  So will 10 other teams with money.  Same for Jensen and a bunch of other guys. 

Couple that with the fact that no matter what we pay Cousins, he will only be the highest paid QB until the next big deal goes down (possibly Brees this year or certainly a few next year).  There is no penalty for having the highest-paid QB in the NFL.  On the other hand, there is a huge penalty for having the worst QB in the NFL.