The Class of '18 QBs are really Only as Good as their Situations

[slats]

Lamar Jackson gets drafted by a solid Baltimore Ravens team with one of the best coaches in the league, who takes their time getting the young QB's feet wet and then tailors the entire offense to that QB's strengths. Result? An MVP-like season from the QB who was the afterthought of the class at the time. 

Josh Allen is the only other QB who's been in the same system two years in a row, and has really had a very nice jump in year two. His passing is respectable, and he's also doing it with his legs and in the win column. People saying he'd never be good because of his college career should be researching crow recipes right about now (I had major doubts!). 

Our own Sam is on his second head coach and a completely different system. The team lacks talent everywhere, and the organization is flawed from the ownership on down. Throw in mono and losing both Herndon and Enunwa from an already suspect receiving group, and it's fairly impressive that he's still managed to improve on his numbers from last year so far. 

Baker Mayfield is on his third head coach, a coach in way over his head, with a convoluted offensive system that Kitchens was supposed to continue but instead they brought in an outside OC who seemed to create some tension. Added a couple volatile playmakers, but after a hot shot rookie season, Mayfield's having a legitimate sophomore slump. And yeah, it's Cleveland. 

Josh Rosen is on his second team in two years and could easily be on his third in three next year. He went from one worst team in the league to another. Really couldn't've been put in a worse position, and I don't recall a top ten QB ever having such a difficult start. I think his best bet would be to land as a backup in a solid organization, and hope to get another chance down the road. Unfortunately for him, the fish will probably just trade him to the highest bidder. 

[Jets723]

Once Sam gets at least a decent Oline I think we are gonna be in business.  We have already seen that when he gets some decent protection he makes great plays and we generally win or at least make it competitive.  Sam is the type of QB that doesn’t need huge weapons, he can have good chemistry with decent weapons however we need to build an OLINE for the kid 

[PS17]

Colin Cowherd says this all the time. QBs are way better off sliding in the draft and being scooped up by a KC/Baltimore/Houston type team with a strong organizational structure and competent coaching staff. 

Mahomes, Jackson, and Watson would likely suck here. 

[T0mShane]

If my son was drafted by the New York Jets, I legitimately wouldn’t allow him to sign the contract. I’d advise him to sit out the year and force a trade. No ******* way I send him to this meat grinder organization 

[NYJ1]

6 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

If my son was drafted by the New York Jets, I legitimately wouldn’t allow him to sign the contract. I’d advise him to sit out the year and force a trade. No ******* way I send him to this meat grinder organization 

Unfortunately, you're probably right. I just hope Sammy stays uninjured through this season. My belief is Joe Douglas is going to attack this thing with a priority toward getting Sammy OL protection. I believe we finally hired a competent GM with a good eye for talent.

[isired]

Unfortunately, you're probably right. I just hope Sammy stays uninjured through this season. My belief is Joe Douglas is going to attack this thing with a priority toward getting Sammy OL protection. I believe we finally hired a competent GM with a good eye for talent.

The Adams 'negotiation' with Dallas, if theres a shred of truth to what's been reported, seems to support this. While he was making ridiculous requests, he didnt ask for Zeke or Dak, he didnt ask for DeMarcus Lawrence or Byron Jones, he asked for their Pro Bowl LG, and then their Pro Bowl LT.

[Y3k]

Stop judging QBs by their records. Josh Allen stinks

[The Crusher]

21 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

If my son was drafted by the New York Jets, I legitimately wouldn’t allow him to sign the contract. I’d advise him to sit out the year and force a trade. No ******* way I send him to this meat grinder organization 

Id have him go do something with better upside like asbestos removal. 

[The Crusher]

1 minute ago, Y3k said:

Stop judging QBs by their records. Josh Allen stinks

The name changes but the message stays the same. 

[Losmeister]

31 minutes ago, slats said:

Lamar Jackson gets drafted by a solid Baltimore Ravens team

in what world is a team with a losing record that hasnt made the playoffs for 3.5 years and is currently

sporting a 4-5 record, a "solid" team?

 

[slats]

3 minutes ago, Losmeister said:

in what world is a team with a losing record that hasnt made the playoffs for 3.5 years and is currently

sporting a 4-5 record, a "solid" team?

 

They finished 2017 9-7, 2018 10-6, and right now they're 10-2.

4-5? 

[PS17]

16 minutes ago, slats said:

They finished 2017 9-7, 2018 10-6, and right now they're 10-2.

4-5? 

Genius is likely pointing to their record before Lamar took over last year. If JetNation pays me a small fee I’ll gladly translate Losmeister’s posts into literate thoughts for the rest of the board. 

[Bleedin Green]

14 minutes ago, slats said:

They finished 2017 9-7, 2018 10-6, and right now they're 10-2.

4-5? 

Same difference, right?

[Larz]

Nah 

some guys are improving and other guys are who they are 

[Losmeister]

1 minute ago, slats said:

They finished 2017 9-7, 2018 10-6, and right now they're 10-2.

4-5? 

Look at the 3 years PRIOR to drafting Jackson.

2015-   5-11

2016-   8-8

2017-    9-7

2018- 4-5, pre LJ

lessee that's, 26-29. meh.

Consider the Dolphins and all asking for Gases head and slaughtering his record w/ Dolphins

(this isnta  defense or endorsement of Gase and his hiring here cos I was sorta nonplussed tbh)

2016- 10-6

2017- 6-10

2018- 7-9

23-25, and by JetNation standards a "loser."

Both sub .500 teams...

So? Dolphins are also "solid"?? no.

By your definition of solid, Gase did a "solid" job in Miami.

So Rosen walked into a solid situation, hmm.I would call it meh, middling. 

Balts hx from 2002-2015 was excellent, superb, w/o a doubt.

But, Balt was kinda in decline w/ an overpaid Flacco, backed up by RG3

and a decidedly MEH offensive roster....

now they are 16-3 since they inserted LJ .

Who is obviously a better footballer than any other QB selected in the 2018 QB class. 

 

[Miss Lonelyhearts]

rEaLlY oNlY aS gOoD aS hIs SiTuAtIon is code for bad. Why didn't we take those four high picks and go get a better situation instead? Was Teddy Bridgewater going to be Significantly Less Good Than His Situation?

[Losmeister]

9 minutes ago, PS17 said:

Genius is likely pointing to their record before Lamar took over last year. If JetNation pays me a small fee I’ll gladly translate Losmeister’s posts into literate thoughts for the rest of the board. 

of course, what else would i be pointing to? if you wanna talk "situations"

 

[IndianaJet]

Tom Brady would be selling insurance right now and married to some heffer named Martha if he were drafted by the Jets.

[14 in Green]

1 hour ago, slats said:

Lamar Jackson gets drafted by a solid Baltimore Ravens team with one of the best coaches in the league, who takes their time getting the young QB's feet wet and then tailors the entire offense to that QB's strengths. Result? An MVP-like season from the QB who was the afterthought of the class at the time. 

Josh Allen is the only other QB who's been in the same system two years in a row, and has really had a very nice jump in year two. His passing is respectable, and he's also doing it with his legs and in the win column. People saying he'd never be good because of his college career should be researching crow recipes right about now (I had major doubts!). 

Our own Sam is on his second head coach and a completely different system. The team lacks talent everywhere, and the organization is flawed from the ownership on down. Throw in mono and losing both Herndon and Enunwa from an already suspect receiving group, and it's fairly impressive that he's still managed to improve on his numbers from last year so far. 

Baker Mayfield is on his third head coach, a coach in way over his head, with a convoluted offensive system that Kitchens was supposed to continue but instead they brought in an outside OC who seemed to create some tension. Added a couple volatile playmakers, but after a hot shot rookie season, Mayfield's having a legitimate sophomore slump. And yeah, it's Cleveland. 

Josh Rosen is on his second team in two years and could easily be on his third in three next year. He went from one worst team in the league to another. Really couldn't've been put in a worse position, and I don't recall a top ten QB ever having such a difficult start. I think his best bet would be to land as a backup in a solid organization, and hope to get another chance down the road. Unfortunately for him, the fish will probably just trade him to the highest bidder. 

Good post.

Some guys get lucky, and go to the right team, or situation. You still have to give them credit for getting it done. It’s not easy for a young QB to win in this league.

Other guys can be just as talented, even more so then one of those guys, but they end up in a place where they have little to no chance to succeed.

Years ago, Archie Manning was the poster boy for this. He realized what a no win situation it was, and did all he could to make sure his two sons ended up in good spots for them.

Then there are the Ryan Leafs. Guys everyone thinks can’t miss, but do. Or even worse, the guys who show just enough to keep people thinking they could be the guy, yet they never become that.

[rangerous]

1 hour ago, PS17 said:

Colin Cowherd says this all the time. QBs are way better off sliding in the draft and being scooped up by a KC/Baltimore/Houston type team with a strong organizational structure and competent coaching staff. 

Mahomes, Jackson, and Watson would likely suck here. 

cowherd may have a point.  imo it's not as simple as just looking at a teams record though.  luck did pretty well for the dolts and so did manning.  the three guys above got drafted by organizations that were clearly on the rise.

[Warfish]

You're right, QB's and their production is usually directly related to their circumstances, modified by their own ability to raise those around them to a higher level.

I like examples, lets use examples!

One of the QB's below was a first round pick who has played under multiple coaches, including one of the worst coaches ever, has suffered under a horrible O-line with not nearly enough time, has limited and/or weak Offensive weapons, has missed time due to injuries and other causes, for a bad bad team under poor management and a meddlesome owner.  Has been accused of having happy feet at times, and holding the ball too long by some.

The other QB below was a first round pick who played under multiple coaches, including one of the worst coaches ever, had suffered under a horrible O-line with not nearly enough time, had limited and/or weak Offensive weapons, had missed time due to injuries and other causes, playing for a bad, bad team under poor management with a meddlesome owner.  Was accused of having happy feet and holding the ball too long by some.

QB #1

23 Starts to begin career, 9 wins, 14 losses, 465 for 836 (55.6%) for 5,370 Yards (6.4 YPA), 33 TD's, 28 INT's, Sacked 71 times.

QB #2

22 Starts to begin career, 8 wins, 14 losses, 435 for 725 (60.0%) for 5,019 Yards (6.9 YPA), 30 TD's, 25 INT's, Sacked 57 times.

Startlingly similar stat lines.

As I always hoped for one, that he would get a real opportunity to show that he was better than his stat-line showed, I still hope the same for the second, active, QB.

[#27TheDominator]

1 hour ago, slats said:

Baker Mayfield is on his third head coach, a coach in way over his head, with a convoluted offensive system that Kitchens was supposed to continue but instead they brought in an outside OC who seemed to create some tension. 

Didn't he hand pick that head coach?  He is on his 3rd head coach.  He got the first on fired and then campaigned to pick the 3rd over the 2nd.  Poor guy!  These problems certainly weren't of his choosing. If only they had traded for a top WR and signed him a pro-bowl RB that was averaging over 100 yards from scrimmage and almost a TD per game for his career.  

1 hour ago, T0mShane said:

If my son was drafted by the New York Jets, I legitimately wouldn’t allow him to sign the contract. I’d advise him to sit out the year and force a trade. No ******* way I send him to this meat grinder organization 

What a douche-y dad.  What better place to sign?  No need to play well, you still start.  No need to go to meetings or show up on time, you still get paid.  Sit on IR for years and don't bother to go for treatment.  If they fine you, off to twitter! 

[bitonti]

Yesterday's game 2nd and 10, 4th quarter at the 7:38 mark

aka Carlos Dunlap's 3rd sack  

Sam Darnold gets 4 whole seconds before the pocket collapses

there's alot of Jets fans think that writing a fancy essay about situations excuses bad Qb play

life is what happens it's not what we want to have happen 

[JetFreak89]

28 minutes ago, bitonti said:

Yesterday's game 2nd and 10, 4th quarter at the 7:38 mark

aka Carlos Dunlap's 3rd sack  

Sam Darnold gets 4 whole seconds before the pocket collapses

there's alot of Jets fans think that writing a fancy essay about situations excuses bad Qb play

life is what happens it's not what we want to have happen 

This is a valid point but if you are really going to be fair, what was the situation with the receivers on this play? Was every receiver covered? That happened on multiple occasions last night to Brady. Does it make him any less of a QB? 

Now the answer to your scenario may be that someone was open, in which case it would be Sam's fault for taking the sack but I honestly don't know as I haven't re-watched the play. 

The only other thing I would add is that if you watch highlights of all the great offenses in the league, if the QB has 4 seconds to throw or if he scrambles out of the pocket, the receivers are able to find soft spots in the D or separate for big chunk plays. That is something that RARELY happens with the Jets, and I'm not just talking about this year, I am going back the last 4-5. I think that speaks volumes into the caliber of talent we have at the position. 

[Maxman]

2 hours ago, T0mShane said:

If my son was drafted by the New York Jets, I legitimately wouldn’t allow him to sign the contract. I’d advise him to sit out the year and force a trade. No ******* way I send him to this meat grinder organization 

That is probably the only way the kid doesn't make the NFL. With your DNA and life choices, that kid would really be unstoppable.

[Maxman]

45 minutes ago, bitonti said:

Yesterday's game 2nd and 10, 4th quarter at the 7:38 mark

aka Carlos Dunlap's 3rd sack  

Sam Darnold gets 4 whole seconds before the pocket collapses

there's alot of Jets fans think that writing a fancy essay about situations excuses bad Qb play

life is what happens it's not what we want to have happen 

I am still not sure what I think about this Sgt Slaughter version of Bitonti.

[JustInFudge]

All I know about the 2018 QB class is Bakery Mayflower is terrible at everything he does and his commercials are even worse.

I

[RutgersJetFan]

1 hour ago, Miss Lonelyhearts said:

rEaLlY oNlY aS gOoD aS hIs SiTuAtIon is code for bad. Why didn't we take those four high picks and go get a better situation instead? Was Teddy Bridgewater going to be Significantly Less Good Than His Situation?

This. The most preposterous part about all of this is the constant harping on sacks to the line. There is an overwhelming amount of info over the years out there about sacks being a quarterback stat, and the data is pretty easy to comprehend. It's almost indisputable at this point. Grown men grasping to their arbitrary favorite football players really has some bizarre boundaries.

[JustInFudge]

On the real, I hated both Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen as prospects and both look legit.  Neither are going to carve you up from the pocket but both are considerably better passers than I thought would be in the NFL.  And both are a big plays waiting to happen either through the air or on the ground.  Both are terribly hard to defend because they run like a RB/FB/WR/Kick Returner when it all breaks down.  Neither have a single WR worthy of mention and their RB's are as Jagy as Jags get.   While their situation is better, that's not the only reason they're successful.  They're both pretty friggin good.

[JustInFudge]

This thread highlights my very favorite dynamic that has formed on this board.

The know it all crowd has firmly placed Darnold in the bust category and legit (just read the thread) blame him for everything going wrong on this offense ie: he's to blame for sacks.  lmfao.  Those same know it alls, routinely call this the least talented team in the league and that big Mac was the worst GM in the history of the league.  So, those very same smooth brains are basically claiming that a 22 year old QB, on his 2nd head coach, in his 2nd system, who has started 22 games, with injuries all over the worst roster in the league, should be overcoming all those facts, by playing at an elite level and proving that he's the best of the bunch.

Jetnation baby!!!!  

[slats]

1 hour ago, bitonti said:

Yesterday's game 2nd and 10, 4th quarter at the 7:38 mark

aka Carlos Dunlap's 3rd sack  

Sam Darnold gets 4 whole seconds before the pocket collapses

there's alot of Jets fans think that writing a fancy essay about situations excuses bad Qb play

life is what happens it's not what we want to have happen 

It's true. I'd never seen a coverage sack before. 

I didn't bring any agenda in here other than to point out that you can rank the QBs from the '18 draft from top to bottom by the stability they've enjoyed the first two years. It's not an excuse for Darnold, but the "no weaponzzzz," crowd loves to dismiss that football is the ultimate team game. And simple-minded people like to find one thing or person to blame. There's plenty of blame to go around for what's going wrong with the Jets (or the Browns, or the fish, etc.), just as there's credit to spread around for teams like the Ravens and Bills this year. 

Sam has to get better, and the team has to get better. People can whine all they want about it, but Darnold & Gase are both gonna be here next season. I'm gonna hope they improve, and root for them to. I hope Gase really is good at offense, and that another year in the same system generates a big jump for Sam next year. Why? Because I really prefer that to bitching and moaning.  

[bitonti]

56 minutes ago, JetFreak89 said:

This is a valid point but if you are really going to be fair, what was the situation with the receivers on this play? Was every receiver covered? That happened on multiple occasions last night to Brady. Does it make him any less of a QB?  

the coaches film is not out yet but i will be back here tomorrow with screen shots of robby anderson running through open pasture

sam was tucking and panicking yesterday, throwing unbalanced "Seeing ghosts" 

it should be noted the playcalls were awful. They hit on a WR screen one time and called it 2 more times in a row. Did Dowell Loggans receive a lobotomy at some point in his career? Adam Gase is worse at his job than Darnold is at his but it's a super low bar 

[bitonti]

13 minutes ago, JiF said:

  So, those very same smooth brains are basically claiming that a 22 year old QB, on his 2nd head coach, in his 2nd system, who has started 22 games, with injuries all over the worst roster in the league, should be overcoming all those facts, by playing at an elite level and proving that he's the best of the bunch.

Jetnation baby!!!!  

there's a middle ground between "playing at an elite level" and "missing a month by getting the kissing disease from sweathogs" 

Sam Darnold gets no more benefit of the doubt 

it's time to grow up and be a professional i.e. don't celebrate like it's 99 when you're 4-7 

[Barry McCockinner]

2 hours ago, Y3k said:

Stop judging QBs by their records. Josh Allen stinks

Josh Allen doesn't "stink". He's developing pretty well. 

[Warfish]

9 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Josh Allen doesn't "stink". He's developing pretty well. 

Remember Barry, records, stats and metrics are Satan's tools, used only to doubt the faithful, to tempt them from the one True Path of Sam.  

Even if it looks like another QB is "better", he isn't.

Even if it looks like another QB, in almost exactly the same circumstances, is the same or better than Sam, he's not. 

Sam is elite.  Special.  The Holy scion of the Marlboro Man, Bless his soul.  Unquestionable and holy.  

So sayeth the Samites.

Amen. ?