Day 2 WRs vs Day 2 OT

[RichardTodd27]

WR's have a high bust rate. Finish re-building the O-line and take the best available LT in the 1st round.

Not time to get "cute".

 

[32EBoozer]

3 hours ago, Rhg1084 said:

Which group could provide better value in the 2nd round if JD was making his decisions who to draft in round 1

WR - Higgins, Reagor, Shenault, People-Jones, Hamler, Aiyuk, Pittman

OT -  Clevland, Jackson, Niang, Pearl, Wilson, Wanogho

Great topic. I asked the same question in another thread but I'm glad you brought this topic to the head of the class. 

 

I'd look to add Williams or preferably Peters prior to the draft, take WR at #11 and double dip at OT in rd. 2 & 3 and a CB/Edge with the other 3rd.

[Adoni Beast]

1 hour ago, Losmeister said:

i love the super aggressive take 2 Wrs approach!

not sure its realsitic, but its sure the way i am leaning after watching unwatchable offenses....

Absolutely not happening unfortunately. But, it really isn’t realistic. It’s very plausible. I just know that’s never how it pans out for us.

If we had a good receiver core I wouldn’t suggest this approach. But we have the worst receivers in the league. There’s no one left in free agency. No one on the trading block.

We are dangerously close to wasting Year 3 of Darnold. Is Joe D unimpressed with him? Is he hanging Gase out to dry? Both?

Listen I like Douglas’ prudent approach. A lot of good value signings. Build through the draft.

But we need to stay afloat as well. It’s not absurd to sign Peters for a year or two (coincides with the other signings thus far) and double down on offensive playmakers high in the draft.

[Adoni Beast]

3 hours ago, Rhg1084 said:

Which group could provide better value in the 2nd round if JD was making his decisions who to draft in round 1

WR - Higgins, Reagor, Shenault, People-Jones, Hamler, Aiyuk, Pittman

OT -  Clevland, Jackson, Niang, Pearl, Wilson, Wanogho

This whole thread is perfect because it is the exact questions I’m sure the entire FO is discussing (or at least I hope so). It also all depends on WHO is there at 11.

I don’t think Bechton or Wills will be there at 11. Wirfs seems to be more of a RT, Thomas is solid but doesn’t really move the needle.

I’m taking Jeudy or Ruggs over Wirfs, Thomas. 

Just like I’m taking Thomas, Wirfs over Lamb.

 

[King P]

28 minutes ago, RichardTodd27 said:

WR's have a high bust rate. Finish re-building the O-line and take the best available LT in the 1st round.

Not time to get "cute".

 

So do OTs

[jetstream23]

4 hours ago, Rhg1084 said:

Which group could provide better value in the 2nd round if JD was making his decisions who to draft in round 1

WR - Higgins, Reagor, Shenault, People-Jones, Hamler, Aiyuk, Pittman

OT -  Clevland, Jackson, Niang, Pearl, Wilson, Wanogho

Get Ruggs or Jeudy in 1.

Get Niang, Wanogho or Jackson in 2.

Can also double-dip and try to get Peart in Round 3 and another WR in 3 or 4.

[Augustiniak]

Just now, jetstream23 said:

Get Ruggs or Jeudy in 1.

Get Niang, Wanogho or Jackson in 2.

Can also double-dip and try to get Peart in Round 3 and another WR in 3 or 4.

I’m all for getting a prime weapon in the first.  The jets can trade up in the 2nd to get a tackle.  For a decade+ all the jets weapons aside from Robbie Anderson were brought in from other teams.  Every wr and rb.  It’s amazing that a team with 7 picks each year just avoids taking them year after year after year.

[Greensleeves]

3 hours ago, 68JET11 said:

While football is more passing now then running, Football 101 can still be defined as "Games are won and lost in the trenches".  It all starts at the line of scrimmage. A good offensive line is more to the offence in terms of running and passing then a S&^% line and the best WR or RB in the NFL in my opinion. Case in point, Bell. So if a guy like Thomas is there at 11, you take him no questions. Now if the OT that JD isn't there at 11, then no problem taking a WR, or even trading back for more picks.

 

I see your point, but we are going to get some very good players, whether it be the first or second round. It depends on the value in each of those rounds. If the receiver is a better value because the OL you want is gone, then go receiver. If the OL you like is there, then take him. I would be disappointed in the front office if they looked at the top 4 OL as all guys that would work. If you are a good talent evaluator at the position you played (JD) you will be looking for certain traits and if they work for you. I would be almost as happy with Jeudy/Lamb/Ruggs and then Peart, as I would with their top OL guy and Higgins - but would prefer the former. I would go WR/OL/WR in the first three picks. The OL is about how well they play together and we have a bunch of guys now. The second round OL could be just as good for us as the guys that go in the first - depends on scheme.

[Greensleeves]

4 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

I’m all for getting a prime weapon in the first.  The jets can trade up in the 2nd to get a tackle.  For a decade+ all the jets weapons aside from Robbie Anderson were brought in from other teams.  Every wr and rb.  It’s amazing that a team with 7 picks each year just avoids taking them year after year after year.

we could grab two starters for the next 8 years - we have to pull the trigger early. Al Toon and Keyshawn say hi - and those were the best offenses I remember us having. Plus, we got crushed up the middle on our line last year, and often. We solidified that spot and improved overall. Add one more second round pick and let them gel. It's all about how well they play together.

[Wonderboy]

1 hour ago, Augustiniak said:

You start by drafting the best players while addressing needs.  You don’t draft a tackle first just because.  The last time the jets drafted a wr who was a true threat was Santana moss, and that was 20 years ago.  It’s absurd.

Thx Macc

[Villain The Foe]

I'd rather see the Jets trade down once or twice and then pick up a guy like Jones or Cleveland at the back end of the 1st, then rack up on receivers and other positions with their additional picks. 

 

[nyjbuddy]

4 hours ago, Greenseed4 said:

Great thread, but this is framed to showcase preference to the 2nd round WRs, and here’s why:

1. you presented 7 options vs 6. 

2. of those presented, you included 3 WRs that are fringe first rounders. 

Eliminate for bias and this thread is really...Which group is better:

 

WR- Hamler, People’s-Jones, Aiyuk, Pittman

OT- Niang, Wanago, Wilson, Peart

(these players are listed in order from the big board on the draft network, and consist of the 4 players available after pick 48) 

see the difference?

This leads to the more important question.  Which of these 2nd round players would be legit starters?  And by legit, I mean starters on any team not just a team that has a glaring hole at the position.  Most of these players are 2nd rounders for a reason.  If one of the reasons are that they are slow to develop and learn, this would be a problem in the short term.  In the second round, they need to get a solid 2nd round starter not a potential role player with potential upside.

Out of those WRs, only Aiyuk has been touted as a possible day 1 starter.  Most of the OL prospects on that list have been seen as Day 1 starters just not all at LT, perhaps at RT or inside at guard. 

[Jethead]

4 hours ago, Augustiniak said:

People lump all 4 of the ‘top tackles’ together, as if they’re all the same.  I doubt most teams feel this way and, based on the new OL the jets are creating, i doubt douglas feels this way either.  I just don’t see a ‘mccagnanesque’ draft where they stay at 11, take Andrew Thomas, stay at 48, take some decent wr, stay at 68, take a cb, etc.  

the jets have a chance to really change their offense right away.  Draft lamb or ruggs, then draft another larger wr like Claypool or Pittman and you’ve massively upgraded what darnold has to work with.  You can still get a quality OT in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounds.  Every OL you draft does not need to be a star.  You need quality linemen who can play the position.  Many times it’s simply drafting a few of them and seeing which ones pan out, which is obviously something mccagnan never did.

I really like Thomas but this is a compelling argument!

[GreenFish]

It looks about the same to me. I like the second tier OL and think most actually fit our scheme better. I’d add Peart to that list of the 2nd/3rd round OL.

With pick 11, there’s no need to reach for OT. If our guy is not there, just draft a WR. Now if we have an OT that we have ranked just as high as the WRs, go OT.

WRs have a higher bust rate. 25 year sample shows 1st round WRs have a 30% bust rate. OT have a 19% bust rate which is one of the lower figures. 

[sirlancemehlot]

5 hours ago, ChuckkieB said:

The draft is deeper in WR and if we can get a legit LT via a trade or FA, we need to go WR in round 1 and maybe even in round 2 also.  Imagine solving Danold's "weapons" issue in one draft.  That would be nice. JD', do not swing and miss!

Right.  And he can watch his weapons run downfield on the jumbotron while he's lying on his back.

[Jets723]

2 hours ago, RichardTodd27 said:

WR's have a high bust rate. Finish re-building the O-line and take the best available LT in the 1st round.

Not time to get "cute".

 

Any position can be a bust.  Taking a WR isn’t being “cute”

[Beerfish]

34 minutes ago, Jets723 said:

Any position can be a bust.  Taking a WR isn’t being “cute”

It is being cute if the best ots are still there.

Also being cute is drafting the 8th ranked OT because he fits adam gases vision of an olineman.

[RedBeardedSavage]

5 hours ago, Wonderboy said:

you start from the bottom up. Establish a strong foundation up front.  Sam needs to be protected. Blue chip Tackles don't grow on trees. Forgo the defense with the first 3 picks. Should go OL WR OL. Then BPA for CB, edge, WR. 

This.

[Dcat]

Here is why I want WR at 11 rather than one of the OTs who might fall to 11 (possibly one that diiesn't fit JDs/AGs scheme):

Round 1 WRs:
1980: Lam Jones - bust 0
1985: Al Toon - star 1
1991: (Supp 1) Rob Moore - good 0.5
1996: Keyshawn Johnson - star 1
2001: Santana Moss - good 0.5
Rd 1: 60% success rate

Round 2 WRs:
1980: Ralph Clayton - bust 0
1990: Reggie Rembert - bust 0
1994: Ryan Yarborough - bust 0
1996: Alex Van Dyke - bust 0
2012: Stephen Hill - bust 0
2015: Devin Smith - bust 0
Rd 2: 0% success rate  

[casterpdx]

If it's OT at #11, any thoughts on trading the 2nd-rounder and one of the 3rd-rounders for a spot late in Round 1 to insure you get the WR you really want (Higgins, Jefferson Aiyuk)?  Then you can still go CB in Round 3

[68JET11]

2 hours ago, Dcat said:

Here is why I want WR at 11 rather than one of the OTs who might fall to 11 (possibly one that diiesn't fit JDs/AGs scheme):

Round 1 WRs:
1980: Lam Jones - bust 0
1985: Al Toon - star 1
1991: (Supp 1) Rob Moore - good 0.5
1996: Keyshawn Johnson - star 1
2001: Santana Moss - good 0.5
Rd 1: 60% success rate

Round 2 WRs:
1980: Ralph Clayton - bust 0
1990: Reggie Rembert - bust 0
1994: Ryan Yarborough - bust 0
1996: Alex Van Dyke - bust 0
2012: Stephen Hill - bust 0
2015: Devin Smith - bust 0
Rd 2: 0% success rate  

Just because we've failed at picking good WR's in the 2nd round with BAD GM's, doesn't mean it will happen with JD. He's an unknown I get that, but we're all going to have to give him this year to prove that he's better then the last two. There are plenty of WR's in this draft that won't be busts because they were not taken in the 1st round. Many will probably be on other teams as well. JD can do this (XXXXX) fingers crossed lol...

[Paradis]

3 hours ago, Dcat said:

Here is why I want WR at 11 rather than one of the OTs who might fall to 11 (possibly one that diiesn't fit JDs/AGs scheme):

Round 1 WRs:
1980: Lam Jones - bust 0
1985: Al Toon - star 1
1991: (Supp 1) Rob Moore - good 0.5
1996: Keyshawn Johnson - star 1
2001: Santana Moss - good 0.5
Rd 1: 60% success rate

Round 2 WRs:
1980: Ralph Clayton - bust 0
1990: Reggie Rembert - bust 0
1994: Ryan Yarborough - bust 0
1996: Alex Van Dyke - bust 0
2012: Stephen Hill - bust 0
2015: Devin Smith - bust 0
Rd 2: 0% success rate  

[Paradis]

11 minutes ago, 68JET11 said:

Just because we've failed at picking good WR's in the 2nd round with BAD GM's, doesn't mean it will happen with JD. 

Obviously there's truth to that. Lots of good WRs have been selected in the 2nd round... but i think number of busts goes up with each round... Yes, there's bad ones in rnd 1, but the percentages definitely favor earlier the better.

I shouldn't be surprised, but yet I am - at the number of people taking such black/white approaches to this conversation... Like if JD doesn't have a great grade on OT Wills, but a super high grade on Jeudy for example - you can't justify taking Wills if Thomas/Wirfs/Bekcton are gone. 

Both are positions of significant need. It's not like we're talking about another front 7 player.

[Rhg1084]

2 hours ago, casterpdx said:

If it's OT at #11, any thoughts on trading the 2nd-rounder and one of the 3rd-rounders for a spot late in Round 1 to insure you get the WR you really want (Higgins, Jefferson Aiyuk)?  Then you can still go CB in Round 3

Think this would be a great move 

[68JET11]

8 minutes ago, Paradis said:

Obviously there's truth to that. Lots of good WRs have been selected in the 2nd round... but i think number of busts goes up with each round... Yes, there's bad ones in rnd 1, but the percentages definitely favor earlier the better.

I shouldn't be surprised, but yet I am - at the number of people taking such black/white approaches to this conversation... Like if JD doesn't have a great grade on OT Wills, but a super high grade on Jeudy for example - you can't justify taking Wills if Thomas/Wirfs/Bekcton are gone. 

Both are positions of significant need. It's not like we're talking about another front 7 player.

You are not wrong... As much as I want the best LT in the draft, I'm not opposed to picking WR at 11. I know we need both which makes this a tough decision.

[JohnnyLV]

So much depends on the picks above us. I could see us trading up to 7 to get our #1 OT (Wirfs I imagine). If the QBs and OTs go early then there could be a real surprise defensive player there which could mean we can trade down a bit (Maybe Atlanta) and still get a Top WR. It is said every year and never really happens but I can really see a draft with multiple early first round trades this year.

[Dcat]

2 hours ago, 68JET11 said:

Just because we've failed at picking good WR's in the 2nd round with BAD GM's, doesn't mean it will happen with JD. He's an unknown I get that, but we're all going to have to give him this year to prove that he's better then the last two. There are plenty of WR's in this draft that won't be busts because they were not taken in the 1st round. Many will probably be on other teams as well. JD can do this (XXXXX) fingers crossed lol...

40 years is more than a trend.  40 years.  I'm sure it's longer but I didn't want to go back to college years.  I hope JD pick one of the top 3 WRs.  They all have less bust potential than a guy like Becton or any of the OTs.  The drop off in WR to the level at 48 is far more severe than with OTs.    

[68JET11]

13 hours ago, Dcat said:

40 years is more than a trend.  40 years.  I'm sure it's longer but I didn't want to go back to college years.  I hope JD pick one of the top 3 WRs.  They all have less bust potential than a guy like Becton or any of the OTs.  The drop off in WR to the level at 48 is far more severe than with OTs.    

Never said I was opposed to picking a WR in the 1st round. If that is going to happen, I'd rather trade back for someone like Jefferson or Mims, and get extra picks in the 2nd and/or 3rd rounds so we can get more OL. I'm trying to shy away from BAMA players because we always seem to have bad luck with 1st round BAMA players recently, as well as (40 years worth of 2nd round WR's) lol...

[Dcat]

1 hour ago, 68JET11 said:

Never said I was opposed to picking a WR in the 1st round. If that is going to happen, I'd rather trade back for someone like Jefferson or Mims, and get extra picks in the 2nd and/or 3rd rounds so we can get more OL. I'm trying to shy away from BAMA players because we always seem to have bad luck with 1st round BAMA players recently, as well as (40 years worth of 2nd round WR's) lol...

You'll have to admit that the 40 years of round 2 WR draft picks is astonishing.  I'd think a chimpanzee drafting randomly in round 2 would have done way better.

[68JET11]

2 hours ago, Dcat said:

You'll have to admit that the 40 years of round 2 WR draft picks is astonishing.  I'd think a chimpanzee drafting randomly in round 2 would have done way better.

I would absolutely agree...

[viffer]

4 hours ago, 68JET11 said:

Never said I was opposed to picking a WR in the 1st round. If that is going to happen, I'd rather trade back for someone like Jefferson or Mims, and get extra picks in the 2nd and/or 3rd rounds so we can get more OL. I'm trying to shy away from BAMA players because we always seem to have bad luck with 1st round BAMA players recently, as well as (40 years worth of 2nd round WR's) lol...

Joe Namath was a bust? Bama guy in round 1...

I really hope we grab Jeudy at 11. I don't believe JD paid Fant $10m to be a backup; he obviously believes that Fant can be a capable starter. And unless/until proven wrong, I'm going to trust JD's opinion on offensive line over anyone on this board (no offense, but that's why they're paying him $6m per year). Unless JD's top-rated tackle drops to 11, I say get a star WR and pick up OL in the second (and maybe again in the 4th or 5th if someone is there), and get another WR in 3.

Defense was good enough last year, even with key injuries, to go somewhere this year IF we can get pieces to put some points on the board. Fix the offense this year and next year's draft can concentrate on the defense.

[TheNuuFaaolaExperience]

Here is my lukewarm take. I'd rather the Jets hit on the pick than pick the greater need. If we go OL and the guy is a stud, it's better than taking a WR and he ends up being Breshad Perriman Jr.  If I'm in Joe D's position, I'm taking the best available between OL and WR. If their coveted OL falls to us, I hope we take the OL, but I'm not crying if we select CeeDee's Nuts or Judge Jeudy. 

If the pick is a hit, nobody is looking back and questioning the decision making process. 

[DonCorleone]

I think that no other acquisition shows how much more important than just weapons the OL actually is than Le'Veon Bell. Mediocre weapons always look better when the QB has time and more importantly, has confidence in his line. Certainly you have game breakers which can make a huge difference, but I am a firm believer that it starts and ends at the lines. I would gladly take a second round WR who can play if we can get a gem LT at number one. Suddenly, we would not only have a running game, but a passing game as well. No need to worry about weapons when a QB is not running for his life. Just an opinion. 

[Lith]

17 minutes ago, TheNuuFaaolaExperience said:

Here is my lukewarm take. I'd rather the Jets hit on the pick than pick the greater need. If we go OL and the guy is a stud, it's better than taking a WR and he ends up being Breshad Perriman Jr.  If I'm in Joe D's position, I'm taking the best available between OL and WR. If their coveted OL falls to us, I hope we take the OL, but I'm not crying if we select CeeDee's Nuts or Judge Jeudy. 

If the pick is a hit, nobody is looking back and questioning the decision making process. 

I agree.  100%. I think they need to see who is on the board at 11, which will dictate strategy for the rest of the draft.  It would be a mistake, imo, to go into draft with preconceived notion that it has to be WR or OL at 11.  Be prepared for several scenarios, see what is on the board at 11 and make the choice based upon how you have those players rated.  That choice could be an OL, it could be a WR, or it could be a trade down.  Could be other options as well, but I am really hoping it is one of these 3.

[Dcat]

listing higgins as a round 2 possibility skews this thing.  Take him off the list for a more realistic view.