Perriman vs. Anderson, per Football Outsiders DVOA rankings

[Jetsfan80]

Not bad for a guy with "only" 4 really good games last season.

 

Player	Team	DYAR	Rk	YAR	Rk	DVOA	Rk ▾
C.Godwin	TB	415	2	423	2	32.80%	1
C.Ridley	ATL	310	5	299	6	30.60%	2
T.Williams	OAK	204	20	212	18	27.20%	3
A.J.Brown	TEN	251	11	253	12	26.20%	4
K.Stills	HOU	162	27	151	29	24.70%	5
T.Lockett	SEA	317	4	301	5	24.60%	6
S.Diggs	MIN	272	10	280	8	24.00%	7
M.Thomas	NO	538	1	537	1	23.90%	8
T.Hill	KC	237	12	223	17	22.40%	9
A.Cooper	DAL	324	3	346	3	22.30%	10
M.Williams	LAC	235	14	239	14	20.60%	11
T.McLaurin	WAS	237	13	244	13	18.90%	12
K.Golladay	DET	279	9	278	9	18.00%	13
M.Evans	TB	301	6	310	4	18.00%	14
B.Perriman	TB	155	29	157	27	16.50%	15
A.Thielen	MIN	103	40	117	37	15.40%	16
D.Parker	MIA	283	8	274	10	14.90%	17
A.Lazard	GB	118	36	118	35	14.60%	18
M.Gallup	DAL	233	15	259	11	13.50%	19
M.Jones	DET	180	24	210	19	11.80%	20
J.Jones	ATL	299	7	282	7	11.60%	21
J.Washington	PIT	156	28	145	30	11.20%	22
Jo.Brown	BUF	205	19	230	16	11.00%	23
E.Sanders	2TM	188	22	179	25	10.50%	24
D.Slayton	NYG	148	30	135	33	9.60%	25
Z.Pascal	IND	121	33	137	32	8.40%	26
H.Renfrow	OAK	112	38	118	36	7.90%	27
K.Allen	LAC	232	16	238	15	7.30%	28
D.Samuel	SF	121	34	114	38	7.30%	29
C.Kupp	LAR	205	18	185	22	7.10%	30
D.Hopkins	HOU	224	17	197	20	6.20%	31
C.Sutton	DEN	189	21	187	21	5.70%	32
R.Cobb	DAL	119	35	125	34	5.40%	33
C.Davis	TEN	99	41	113	39	5.40%	34
M.Brown	BAL	98	42	98	41	4.20%	35
J.Landry	CLE	182	23	155	28	4.10%	36
D.J.Moore	CAR	167	25	183	23	3.20%	37
DJ Chark	JAX	134	32	158	26	1.90%	38
W.Fuller	HOU	82	45	97	42	1.80%	39
T.Y.Hilton	IND	76	47	78	47	1.60%	40
C.Beasley	BUF	112	37	95	43	1.30%	41
D.Robinson	KC	61	53	60	52	1.00%	42
D.Adams	GB	139	31	141	31	0.60%	43
DK Metcalf	SEA	105	39	85	45	0.60%	44
A.Robinson	CHI	165	26	182	24	0.40%	45
B.Cooks	LAR	71	49	60	53	0.00%	46
G.Tate	NYG	71	48	81	46	-2.00%	47
L.Fitzgerald	ARI	90	44	74	48	-2.00%	48
P.Dorsett	NE	46	56	43	58	-2.10%	49
C.Conley	JAX	68	50	105	40	-2.70%	50
R.Woods	LAR	94	43	86	44	-4.00%	51
A.Jeffery	PHI	50	54	69	49	-4.20%	52
R.Anderson	NYJ	66	52	57	54	-4.20%	53

[Thai Jet]

Perriman's listed right behind Mike Evans, nice territory. He's only on a 1 year deal with the Jets.  He still has a lot to prove to get that bigger contract. Look for him to have a breakout year.

[Jetsfan80]

Side note:  Be sure to grab Allen Lazard (# 18 on this list) in your fantasy drafts this year. 

Whoever is the # 2 WR in Green Bay always produces, and Lazard should be able to lock down that job over Funchess and Valdes-Scantling.  He was impressive over the final 11 games last season (35 catches on 52 targets, 477 yds, 3 TDs).  In the 3 games he started, Lazard was targeted by Rodgers a total of 21 times.

You're welcome.

[HawkeyeJet]

Another thing I found interesting about the DVOA Rankings is that the years Josh Doctson has been healthy in, he's essentially put up near identical DVOA numbers as Anderson had over the past 2 seasons.

I think if he stays healthy, he will contribute.  The WRs I think will be serviceable but unspectacular this year, which I'm ok with.

[Beerfish]

I like Robbie Anderson but there was simply something missing from his game to prevent him from taking that next step.

[win4ever]

The unfortunate truth is that Anderson is a No. 3 receiver. However, because of volume, people thought he’d be a fine No. 2, and I think he thought he’d be a borderline No. 1.

Anderson runs a great deep go route, extra gear, tracks the ball well. If we’re judging just based on that, he’s one of the best in the league. However, that’s really all that he does well. For someone that fast, he’s not a big YAC guy, nor does he run other routes well. He gets open because teams respect his deep speed, but he’s not going to be a dependable guy. I think that’s why Carolina was a good fit for him because Moore/Samuel can allow him to be who he is.

Perriman on film and on paper is a MUCH better player, if we just look at Tampa. He attacks the back shoulder pass extremely well, can run deep with the extra gear, and uses his size to box out defenders. The issue with him is that his three previous years were basically useless. If you could go with just potential, he’s probably one of the top 30 guys in the league, but the downside is a crater.

Doctson is weird. He was my No. 1 WR coming out of that draft, and I was sure he’d be good. He ran good routes, won against both man and zone, attacked the ball in the air, good YAC guy, and wasn’t really a troublemaker. Probably one of my biggest misses, I have no idea why he sucked. His NFL tape is extremely mediocre.

I think Perriman (as long as he’s healthy) is going to break out. I’d be a bit surprised if Doctson made the team.


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

[Welp]

I actually think if healthy Doctson could be a surprisingly effective contributor possibly even more so than Mims. Darnold likes to spread the ball around and works well with big WRs that can work the short and intermediate routes.

[Greenbloodblitz]

People be stupid..

[Greenbloodblitz]

Good thread though..

[GreenReaper]

I never doubted that Perriman is the more talented receiver.   Was it just injuries that set him back?   Or was it that...plus the need to refine his route running? 

The way he finished last season...in those last 5-6 games...does give me some hope...that maybe the lightbulb went on in his head.  That if healthy...he's ready to start living up to his talent and potential.  Maybe JD thought this too.

Can he match..exceed...or at least come close to Robby's numbers?  We'll see.

 

[CanadienJetsFan]

If Mimms ends up being a stud, everyone will forget about both Anderson and Perriman.

[rangerous]

i liked robbieh too.  there's something about an udfa that makes the team and does pretty well.  i guess it's all about rooting for the little guy.  but when his production is objectively compared to other wrs he falls off pretty far, pretty fast.  and isn't that the whole point?  obviously perriman is coming off part of a season where he did well and he needs to build on that production if he wants his next big contract.  we'll see.  it's too bad the jets haven't been able to train together yet.

[JustInFudge]

And yet, I'd still take 20-30 guys on that list who appear after Perriman. 

 

[Bowles Movement]

36 minutes ago, rangerous said:

i liked robbieh too.  there's something about an udfa that makes the team and does pretty well.  i guess it's all about rooting for the little guy.  but when his production is objectively compared to other wrs he falls off pretty far, pretty fast.  and isn't that the whole point?  obviously perriman is coming off part of a season where he did well and he needs to build on that production if he wants his next big contract.  we'll see.  it's too bad the jets haven't been able to train together yet.

I liked Robbie too and probably for the same reasons.  Plus when your team sucks at drafting you take the little victories, like a UDFA becoming a serviceable starter.  But when I think of Robbie, the thing that comes to mind is that he wasnt a go to receiver that you could expect to get open when it was a critical passing play.  Defenses respected his speed over the top but his speed didnt make it easy to get open on crossing patterns and underneath stuff.  A true number one beats his coverage more consistently and is more consistently open.  We need a guy that Sam can give a chance to go get the ball.

[BCJet]

4 hours ago, GreenReaper said:

I never doubted that Perriman is the more talented receiver.   Was it just injuries that set him back?   Or was it that...plus the need to refine his route running? 

The way he finished last season...in those last 5-6 games...does give me some hope...that maybe the lightbulb went on in his head.  That if healthy...he's ready to start living up to his talent and potential.  Maybe JD thought this too.

Can he match..exceed...or at least come close to Robby's numbers?  We'll see.

 

Its quite possible that the issue with Perriman was simply that the NFL is hard.   Some of these guys have gotten by on shear athletic ability their whole lives, college included, and dont realize the work it takes to make it in the NFL and that it just takes a little time for the "light to go on".

Injuries, etc all play a part into the adjustment, so hopefully he brings a competitive attitude to the team and is able to be the player he was last year.

[Jet Blast]

9 hours ago, Beerfish said:

I like Robbie Anderson but there was simply something missing from his game to prevent him from taking that next step.

It seemed to me like he usually came up short when there were contested catches. To me, that's an important factor.

[Jetstream]

Not to defend robbie, but he had no one to throw to him for half the year... i feel perriman is an upgrade but i wish robbie well

[GreenReaper]

3 hours ago, CanadienJetsFan said:

If Mimms ends up being a stud, everyone will forget about both Anderson and Perriman.

The stud...stops here...

Download video

 

[CTJetsFan]

5 hours ago, GreenReaper said:

I never doubted that Perriman is the more talented receiver.   Was it just injuries that set him back?   Or was it that...plus the need to refine his route running? 

The way he finished last season...in those last 5-6 games...does give me some hope...that maybe the lightbulb went on in his head.  That if healthy...he's ready to start living up to his talent and potential.  Maybe JD thought this too.

Can he match..exceed...or at least come close to Robby's numbers?  We'll see.

 

This 100%

[Barry McCockinner]

Oh boy - some posters are going to raise hell in this one.

[Lupz27]

1 hour ago, JiF said:

And yet, I'd still take 20-30 guys on that list who appear after Perriman. 

 

Really can’t wait till Perriman is an afterthought.

[section314]

10 hours ago, Beerfish said:

I like Robbie Anderson but there was simply something missing from his game to prevent him from taking that next step.

I think what you're getting at is like the movie "That thing You Do".........the Wonders, and Robby, both needed a 2nd song.?

[DonCorleone]

10 hours ago, Thai Jet said:

Perriman's listed right behind Mike Evans, nice territory. He's only on a 1 year deal with the Jets.  He still has a lot to prove to get that bigger contract. Look for him to have a breakout year.

I wonder if the Jets would hold on to him for the long term if he has that breakout year. We still don't know JD. 

[Jetsfan80]

10 hours ago, Welp said:

I actually think if healthy Doctson could be a surprisingly effective contributor possibly even more so than Mims. Darnold likes to spread the ball around and works well with big WRs that can work the short and intermediate routes.

He's a very interesting wild card.  But since I don't believe he has much to offer on special teams, he'll have to prove he's a top 4 WR on the team to make the cut, I imagine.  

We certainly will have some nice competition for the WR4 and WR5 spots leading up to final cutdowns.  Plus probably 1-2 of the young guys heading to the Practice Squad for additional depth.

Edited June 3, 2020 by Jetsfan80

[Jetsfan80]

7 hours ago, GreenReaper said:

I never doubted that Perriman is the more talented receiver.   Was it just injuries that set him back?   Or was it that...plus the need to refine his route running? 

The way he finished last season...in those last 5-6 games...does give me some hope...that maybe the lightbulb went on in his head.  That if healthy...he's ready to start living up to his talent and potential.  Maybe JD thought this too.

Can he match..exceed...or at least come close to Robby's numbers?  We'll see.

He certainly LOOKED the part of a starting receiver in those final games of the '19 season, beyond just what the stats showed.  He made every kind of catch he was asked to make.  

Obviously, it has to be taken into account that WRs always benefit greatly in a Bruce Arians system.  Any downfield threat will look good in that system.  But he certainly is a very athletic kid with tantalizing upside and a big opportunity on a 1-year deal to get himself some big money in 2021, either from here or on the open market.  

Juxtapose him with Anderson who is pretty much what he is and won't really change/improve much, and I can understand the logic of paying less money to a higher upside receiver.  

[Jetsfan80]

4 hours ago, CanadienJetsFan said:

If Mimms ends up being a stud, everyone will forget about both Anderson and Perriman.

Absolutely.  But rookie receivers typically take time to develop.  Only 14 WRs since 1970 have achieved 1,000+ yards in their rookie seasons. 

I think Mims will be our WR1 for a long time, but it will take at least until the 2nd half of the 2020 season before he starts looking and producing like a WR1.  Prior to that, Crowder and Perriman will be very important targets for Darnold.

[JohnnyLV]

1 hour ago, DonCorleone said:

I wonder if the Jets would hold on to him for the long term if he has that breakout year. We still don't know JD. 

JD in some interview did say his plan was extend some of the 1 year contracts during the season if they perform. Could easily see that happening with Perriman.

[Jetsfan80]

3 hours ago, JiF said:

And yet, I'd still take 20-30 guys on that list who appear after Perriman. 

 

20-30?  That's a lot.

The contracts and/or ages of several of those receivers would have to chop that list down a good bit:

• Adam Thielen:  Age 30 and a $12.8M cap hit this year, going up each subsequent year. 
• Marvin Jones:  Age 30, costs $9.2M this year, and like Perriman is a FA after the season.
• John Brown:  Age 30, costs $9.7M this year and $9.75M next year.
• Emmanuel Sanders:  Age 33, costs just $4M this year but is $10M next year and difficult to cut.  
• Randall Cobb:  Age 30, a slot receiver, and costs $10.6M in 2021.
• Jarvis Landry:  Age 28, also a slot receiver, and costs $14.6M this year, $14.8M next year, and $16.6M in 2022.
• T.Y. Hilton:  Age 31, has missed a lot of games the last 2 seasons, costs $14.5M this year and is a free agent after the season
• Cole Beasley:  Age 31, a slot receiver, and costs over $7M each of the next 3 seasons.
• Brandin Cooks:  Age 27, but too many concussions, and costs $12M+ against the cap each year from 2021-23.
• Golden Tate:  Age 32, costs, $10.3M+ each of the next 2 seasons.
• Larry Fitzgerald:  Age 37, costs $11.75M this year.  FA after the season.
• Alshon Jeffery:  Age 30 and injury prone, costs $15.4M this year and $18.4M next year.

 

Am I saying I'd prefer Perriman over ALL of the guys I just listed?  No.  But at age 27 and sitting on a 1 year deal costing just $6.4M against the cap, he's preferable to a lot of them.  

[slats]

I'm interested to see where Diggs is on this list next year going from the stat-driven automaton that is Kirk Cousins to the erratic RB at QB in Josh Allen. 

[y2k8]

13 hours ago, Beerfish said:

I like Robbie Anderson but there was simply something missing from his game to prevent him from taking that next step.

grit

[joewilly12]

13 hours ago, Welp said:

I actually think if healthy Doctson could be a surprisingly effective contributor possibly even more so than Mims. Darnold likes to spread the ball around and works well with big WRs that can work the short and intermediate routes.

A healthy head in the game Josh Doctson is what we need. 

[GreenReaper]

3 hours ago, johnnysd said:

JD in some interview did say his plan was extend some of the 1 year contracts during the season if they perform. Could easily see that happening with Perriman.

Smart move by JD. 

These prove it contract players are going to bust their behinds...knowing that if their play is exceeding the value of their contracts...they can get a pay raise extension...NOW!  

[DoubleDown]

Has there ever been a player who did less with his opportunity than Robby Anderson?  I struggle to find a good answer.

He spent years being thrust into a #1 WR role on a team that was constantly playing from behind.  Players in this situation typically have inflated stats, yet Anderson managed to underwhelm year after year.

Perriman was put in a similar situation late last year, and he shined.  I personally don't see him as a downgrade at all.  In fact, I think he has more raw talent and higher potential to be a long term contributor.

[JohnnyLV]

20 minutes ago, DoubleDown said:

Has there ever been a player who did less with his opportunity than Robby Anderson?  I struggle to find a good answer.

He spent years being thrust into a #1 WR role on a team that was constantly playing from behind.  Players in this situation typically have inflated stats, yet Anderson managed to underwhelm year after year.

Perriman was put in a similar situation late last year, and he shined.  I personally don't see him as a downgrade at all.  In fact, I think he has more raw talent and higher potential to be a long term contributor.

Anderson was a good player but in my view was extremely lacking in a couple key areas. Unlike many really players he was literally NEVER a threat to score any time he had the ball his YAC production was terrible, and he just did not catch contested balls. He was fantastic at high pointing a ball where he had a little separation but in a physically contested situation he just never seemed to get it done.

[JustInFudge]

2 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

20-30?  That's a lot.

The contracts and/or ages of several of those receivers would have to chop that list down a good bit:

• Adam Thielen:  Age 30 and a $12.8M cap hit this year, going up each subsequent year. 
• Marvin Jones:  Age 30, costs $9.2M this year, and like Perriman is a FA after the season.
• John Brown:  Age 30, costs $9.7M this year and $9.75M next year.
• Emmanuel Sanders:  Age 33, costs just $4M this year but is $10M next year and difficult to cut.  
• Randall Cobb:  Age 30, a slot receiver, and costs $10.6M in 2021.
• Jarvis Landry:  Age 28, also a slot receiver, and costs $14.6M this year, $14.8M next year, and $16.6M in 2022.
• T.Y. Hilton:  Age 31, has missed a lot of games the last 2 seasons, costs $14.5M this year and is a free agent after the season
• Cole Beasley:  Age 31, a slot receiver, and costs over $7M each of the next 3 seasons.
• Brandin Cooks:  Age 27, but too many concussions, and costs $12M+ against the cap each year from 2021-23.
• Golden Tate:  Age 32, costs, $10.3M+ each of the next 2 seasons.
• Larry Fitzgerald:  Age 37, costs $11.75M this year.  FA after the season.
• Alshon Jeffery:  Age 30 and injury prone, costs $15.4M this year and $18.4M next year.

 

Am I saying I'd prefer Perriman over ALL of the guys I just listed?  No.  But at age 27 and sitting on a 1 year deal costing just $6.4M against the cap, he's preferable to a lot of them.  

Does DVOA factor contracts and age? 

I'm just saying straight up fo one year (because that's all he's signed for) it would be hard for me not to take every single player list before I'd take Perriman.  Actually, I'd take him over Hunter Renfrow. That's it. 

Look, I'm excited about his potential.  He finished the season very strong but he's a mega bust of epic proportions and I dont see him succeeding in Gase's system the same we he did in a system custom built for his skill set. 

I hope I'm wrong.  I hope him and Doctson just needed to find the right home but history isnt kind to their types.