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Jetsfan80

Perriman vs. Anderson, per Football Outsiders DVOA rankings

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Not bad for a guy with "only" 4 really good games last season.

 

Player Team DYAR Rk YAR Rk DVOA Rk ▾
               
C.Godwin TB 415 2 423 2 32.80% 1
C.Ridley ATL 310 5 299 6 30.60% 2
T.Williams OAK 204 20 212 18 27.20% 3
A.J.Brown TEN 251 11 253 12 26.20% 4
K.Stills HOU 162 27 151 29 24.70% 5
T.Lockett SEA 317 4 301 5 24.60% 6
S.Diggs MIN 272 10 280 8 24.00% 7
M.Thomas NO 538 1 537 1 23.90% 8
T.Hill KC 237 12 223 17 22.40% 9
A.Cooper DAL 324 3 346 3 22.30% 10
M.Williams LAC 235 14 239 14 20.60% 11
T.McLaurin WAS 237 13 244 13 18.90% 12
K.Golladay DET 279 9 278 9 18.00% 13
M.Evans TB 301 6 310 4 18.00% 14
B.Perriman TB 155 29 157 27 16.50% 15
A.Thielen MIN 103 40 117 37 15.40% 16
D.Parker MIA 283 8 274 10 14.90% 17
A.Lazard GB 118 36 118 35 14.60% 18
M.Gallup DAL 233 15 259 11 13.50% 19
M.Jones DET 180 24 210 19 11.80% 20
J.Jones ATL 299 7 282 7 11.60% 21
J.Washington PIT 156 28 145 30 11.20% 22
Jo.Brown BUF 205 19 230 16 11.00% 23
E.Sanders 2TM 188 22 179 25 10.50% 24
D.Slayton NYG 148 30 135 33 9.60% 25
Z.Pascal IND 121 33 137 32 8.40% 26
H.Renfrow OAK 112 38 118 36 7.90% 27
K.Allen LAC 232 16 238 15 7.30% 28
D.Samuel SF 121 34 114 38 7.30% 29
C.Kupp LAR 205 18 185 22 7.10% 30
D.Hopkins HOU 224 17 197 20 6.20% 31
C.Sutton DEN 189 21 187 21 5.70% 32
R.Cobb DAL 119 35 125 34 5.40% 33
C.Davis TEN 99 41 113 39 5.40% 34
M.Brown BAL 98 42 98 41 4.20% 35
J.Landry CLE 182 23 155 28 4.10% 36
D.J.Moore CAR 167 25 183 23 3.20% 37
DJ Chark JAX 134 32 158 26 1.90% 38
W.Fuller HOU 82 45 97 42 1.80% 39
T.Y.Hilton IND 76 47 78 47 1.60% 40
C.Beasley BUF 112 37 95 43 1.30% 41
D.Robinson KC 61 53 60 52 1.00% 42
D.Adams GB 139 31 141 31 0.60% 43
DK Metcalf SEA 105 39 85 45 0.60% 44
A.Robinson CHI 165 26 182 24 0.40% 45
B.Cooks LAR 71 49 60 53 0.00% 46
G.Tate NYG 71 48 81 46 -2.00% 47
L.Fitzgerald ARI 90 44 74 48 -2.00% 48
P.Dorsett NE 46 56 43 58 -2.10% 49
C.Conley JAX 68 50 105 40 -2.70% 50
R.Woods LAR 94 43 86 44 -4.00% 51
A.Jeffery PHI 50 54 69 49 -4.20% 52
R.Anderson NYJ 66 52 57 54 -4.20% 53
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I actually think if healthy Doctson could be a surprisingly effective contributor possibly even more so than Mims. Darnold likes to spread the ball around and works well with big WRs that can work the short and intermediate routes.

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I never doubted that Perriman is the more talented receiver.   Was it just injuries that set him back?   Or was it that...plus the need to refine his route running? 

The way he finished last season...in those last 5-6 games...does give me some hope...that maybe the lightbulb went on in his head.  That if healthy...he's ready to start living up to his talent and potential.  Maybe JD thought this too.

Can he match..exceed...or at least come close to Robby's numbers?  We'll see.

 

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i liked robbieh too.  there's something about an udfa that makes the team and does pretty well.  i guess it's all about rooting for the little guy.  but when his production is objectively compared to other wrs he falls off pretty far, pretty fast.  and isn't that the whole point?  obviously perriman is coming off part of a season where he did well and he needs to build on that production if he wants his next big contract.  we'll see.  it's too bad the jets haven't been able to train together yet.

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And yet, I'd still take 20-30 guys on that list who appear after Perriman. 

 

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36 minutes ago, rangerous said:

i liked robbieh too.  there's something about an udfa that makes the team and does pretty well.  i guess it's all about rooting for the little guy.  but when his production is objectively compared to other wrs he falls off pretty far, pretty fast.  and isn't that the whole point?  obviously perriman is coming off part of a season where he did well and he needs to build on that production if he wants his next big contract.  we'll see.  it's too bad the jets haven't been able to train together yet.

I liked Robbie too and probably for the same reasons.  Plus when your team sucks at drafting you take the little victories, like a UDFA becoming a serviceable starter.  But when I think of Robbie, the thing that comes to mind is that he wasnt a go to receiver that you could expect to get open when it was a critical passing play.  Defenses respected his speed over the top but his speed didnt make it easy to get open on crossing patterns and underneath stuff.  A true number one beats his coverage more consistently and is more consistently open.  We need a guy that Sam can give a chance to go get the ball.

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4 hours ago, GreenReaper said:

I never doubted that Perriman is the more talented receiver.   Was it just injuries that set him back?   Or was it that...plus the need to refine his route running? 

The way he finished last season...in those last 5-6 games...does give me some hope...that maybe the lightbulb went on in his head.  That if healthy...he's ready to start living up to his talent and potential.  Maybe JD thought this too.

Can he match..exceed...or at least come close to Robby's numbers?  We'll see.

 

Its quite possible that the issue with Perriman was simply that the NFL is hard.   Some of these guys have gotten by on shear athletic ability their whole lives, college included, and dont realize the work it takes to make it in the NFL and that it just takes a little time for the "light to go on".

Injuries, etc all play a part into the adjustment, so hopefully he brings a competitive attitude to the team and is able to be the player he was last year.

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Not to defend robbie, but he had no one to throw to him for half the year... i feel perriman is an upgrade but i wish robbie well

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3 hours ago, CanadienJetsFan said:

If Mimms ends up being a stud, everyone will forget about both Anderson and Perriman.

The stud...stops here...

Download video

 

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5 hours ago, GreenReaper said:

I never doubted that Perriman is the more talented receiver.   Was it just injuries that set him back?   Or was it that...plus the need to refine his route running? 

The way he finished last season...in those last 5-6 games...does give me some hope...that maybe the lightbulb went on in his head.  That if healthy...he's ready to start living up to his talent and potential.  Maybe JD thought this too.

Can he match..exceed...or at least come close to Robby's numbers?  We'll see.

 

This 100%

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1 hour ago, JiF said:

And yet, I'd still take 20-30 guys on that list who appear after Perriman. 

 

Really can’t wait till Perriman is an afterthought.

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10 hours ago, Beerfish said:

I like Robbie Anderson but there was simply something missing from his game to prevent him from taking that next step.

I think what you're getting at is like the movie "That thing You Do".........the Wonders, and Robby, both needed a 2nd song.😎

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10 hours ago, Thai Jet said:

Perriman's listed right behind Mike Evans, nice territory. He's only on a 1 year deal with the Jets.  He still has a lot to prove to get that bigger contract. Look for him to have a breakout year.

I wonder if the Jets would hold on to him for the long term if he has that breakout year. We still don't know JD. 

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Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, Welp said:

I actually think if healthy Doctson could be a surprisingly effective contributor possibly even more so than Mims. Darnold likes to spread the ball around and works well with big WRs that can work the short and intermediate routes.

He's a very interesting wild card.  But since I don't believe he has much to offer on special teams, he'll have to prove he's a top 4 WR on the team to make the cut, I imagine.  

We certainly will have some nice competition for the WR4 and WR5 spots leading up to final cutdowns.  Plus probably 1-2 of the young guys heading to the Practice Squad for additional depth.

Edited by Jetsfan80

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7 hours ago, GreenReaper said:

I never doubted that Perriman is the more talented receiver.   Was it just injuries that set him back?   Or was it that...plus the need to refine his route running? 

The way he finished last season...in those last 5-6 games...does give me some hope...that maybe the lightbulb went on in his head.  That if healthy...he's ready to start living up to his talent and potential.  Maybe JD thought this too.

Can he match..exceed...or at least come close to Robby's numbers?  We'll see.

He certainly LOOKED the part of a starting receiver in those final games of the '19 season, beyond just what the stats showed.  He made every kind of catch he was asked to make.  

Obviously, it has to be taken into account that WRs always benefit greatly in a Bruce Arians system.  Any downfield threat will look good in that system.  But he certainly is a very athletic kid with tantalizing upside and a big opportunity on a 1-year deal to get himself some big money in 2021, either from here or on the open market.  

Juxtapose him with Anderson who is pretty much what he is and won't really change/improve much, and I can understand the logic of paying less money to a higher upside receiver.  

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4 hours ago, CanadienJetsFan said:

If Mimms ends up being a stud, everyone will forget about both Anderson and Perriman.

Absolutely.  But rookie receivers typically take time to develop.  Only 14 WRs since 1970 have achieved 1,000+ yards in their rookie seasons. 

I think Mims will be our WR1 for a long time, but it will take at least until the 2nd half of the 2020 season before he starts looking and producing like a WR1.  Prior to that, Crowder and Perriman will be very important targets for Darnold.

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1 hour ago, DonCorleone said:

I wonder if the Jets would hold on to him for the long term if he has that breakout year. We still don't know JD. 

JD in some interview did say his plan was extend some of the 1 year contracts during the season if they perform. Could easily see that happening with Perriman.

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3 hours ago, JiF said:

And yet, I'd still take 20-30 guys on that list who appear after Perriman. 

 

20-30?  That's a lot.

The contracts and/or ages of several of those receivers would have to chop that list down a good bit:

  • Adam Thielen:  Age 30 and a $12.8M cap hit this year, going up each subsequent year. 
  • Marvin Jones:  Age 30, costs $9.2M this year, and like Perriman is a FA after the season.
  • John Brown:  Age 30, costs $9.7M this year and $9.75M next year.
  • Emmanuel Sanders:  Age 33, costs just $4M this year but is $10M next year and difficult to cut.  
  • Randall Cobb:  Age 30, a slot receiver, and costs $10.6M in 2021.
  • Jarvis Landry:  Age 28, also a slot receiver, and costs $14.6M this year, $14.8M next year, and $16.6M in 2022.
  • T.Y. Hilton:  Age 31, has missed a lot of games the last 2 seasons, costs $14.5M this year and is a free agent after the season
  • Cole Beasley:  Age 31, a slot receiver, and costs over $7M each of the next 3 seasons.
  • Brandin Cooks:  Age 27, but too many concussions, and costs $12M+ against the cap each year from 2021-23.
  • Golden Tate:  Age 32, costs, $10.3M+ each of the next 2 seasons.
  • Larry Fitzgerald:  Age 37, costs $11.75M this year.  FA after the season.
  • Alshon Jeffery:  Age 30 and injury prone, costs $15.4M this year and $18.4M next year.

 

Am I saying I'd prefer Perriman over ALL of the guys I just listed?  No.  But at age 27 and sitting on a 1 year deal costing just $6.4M against the cap, he's preferable to a lot of them.  

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13 hours ago, Beerfish said:

I like Robbie Anderson but there was simply something missing from his game to prevent him from taking that next step.

grit

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13 hours ago, Welp said:

I actually think if healthy Doctson could be a surprisingly effective contributor possibly even more so than Mims. Darnold likes to spread the ball around and works well with big WRs that can work the short and intermediate routes.

A healthy head in the game Josh Doctson is what we need. 

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3 hours ago, johnnysd said:

JD in some interview did say his plan was extend some of the 1 year contracts during the season if they perform. Could easily see that happening with Perriman.

Smart move by JD. 

These prove it contract players are going to bust their behinds...knowing that if their play is exceeding the value of their contracts...they can get a pay raise extension...NOW!  

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Has there ever been a player who did less with his opportunity than Robby Anderson?  I struggle to find a good answer.

He spent years being thrust into a #1 WR role on a team that was constantly playing from behind.  Players in this situation typically have inflated stats, yet Anderson managed to underwhelm year after year.

Perriman was put in a similar situation late last year, and he shined.  I personally don't see him as a downgrade at all.  In fact, I think he has more raw talent and higher potential to be a long term contributor.

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20 minutes ago, DoubleDown said:

Has there ever been a player who did less with his opportunity than Robby Anderson?  I struggle to find a good answer.

He spent years being thrust into a #1 WR role on a team that was constantly playing from behind.  Players in this situation typically have inflated stats, yet Anderson managed to underwhelm year after year.

Perriman was put in a similar situation late last year, and he shined.  I personally don't see him as a downgrade at all.  In fact, I think he has more raw talent and higher potential to be a long term contributor.

Anderson was a good player but in my view was extremely lacking in a couple key areas. Unlike many really players he was literally NEVER a threat to score any time he had the ball his YAC production was terrible, and he just did not catch contested balls. He was fantastic at high pointing a ball where he had a little separation but in a physically contested situation he just never seemed to get it done.

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2 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

20-30?  That's a lot.

The contracts and/or ages of several of those receivers would have to chop that list down a good bit:

  • Adam Thielen:  Age 30 and a $12.8M cap hit this year, going up each subsequent year. 
  • Marvin Jones:  Age 30, costs $9.2M this year, and like Perriman is a FA after the season.
  • John Brown:  Age 30, costs $9.7M this year and $9.75M next year.
  • Emmanuel Sanders:  Age 33, costs just $4M this year but is $10M next year and difficult to cut.  
  • Randall Cobb:  Age 30, a slot receiver, and costs $10.6M in 2021.
  • Jarvis Landry:  Age 28, also a slot receiver, and costs $14.6M this year, $14.8M next year, and $16.6M in 2022.
  • T.Y. Hilton:  Age 31, has missed a lot of games the last 2 seasons, costs $14.5M this year and is a free agent after the season
  • Cole Beasley:  Age 31, a slot receiver, and costs over $7M each of the next 3 seasons.
  • Brandin Cooks:  Age 27, but too many concussions, and costs $12M+ against the cap each year from 2021-23.
  • Golden Tate:  Age 32, costs, $10.3M+ each of the next 2 seasons.
  • Larry Fitzgerald:  Age 37, costs $11.75M this year.  FA after the season.
  • Alshon Jeffery:  Age 30 and injury prone, costs $15.4M this year and $18.4M next year.

 

Am I saying I'd prefer Perriman over ALL of the guys I just listed?  No.  But at age 27 and sitting on a 1 year deal costing just $6.4M against the cap, he's preferable to a lot of them.  

Does DVOA factor contracts and age? 

I'm just saying straight up fo one year (because that's all he's signed for) it would be hard for me not to take every single player list before I'd take Perriman.  Actually, I'd take him over Hunter Renfrow. That's it. 

Look, I'm excited about his potential.  He finished the season very strong but he's a mega bust of epic proportions and I dont see him succeeding in Gase's system the same we he did in a system custom built for his skill set. 

I hope I'm wrong.  I hope him and Doctson just needed to find the right home but history isnt kind to their types.  

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