Report: Jets Talking to Falcons About Trade Down

[Augustiniak]

44 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

WRs are risky, as I pointed out in my analysis of all receivers taken from 2005-19 in another thread.  There's no guarantee at all that Ruggs or Lamb become "elite playmakers". 

He may well have those 2 a lot lower on his board than you think, even with all the news coming the last week about how much the Jets like Ruggs.  

There's a lot of receivers in that late 1st/2nd round range that can become very good players in the league, even if they fall short of elite.  I could easily see Douglas liking the "bang for the buck" he can get later on.

At some point the jets are going to have to commit draft capital to playmakers.  If the jets take a tackle at 11, pass up these wrs and two of them become stars, i think we’d all be ok with this if the tackle is good.  But if they whiff on wrs in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, we’ll all still be here wondering why the jets can’t simply take the guy who is most destined to be a star wr.  I don’t see the downside to taking guys who can become elite playmakers, and using the ‘wrs bust’ is a cop out excuse to taking a tackle just because you want one.

[Jetsfan80]

4 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

At some point the jets are going to have to commit draft capital to playmakers.  If the jets take a tackle at 11, pass up these wrs and two of them become stars, i think we’d all be ok with this if the tackle is good.  But if they whiff on wrs in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, we’ll all still be here wondering why the jets can’t simply take the guy who is most destined to be a star wr.  I don’t see the downside to taking guys who can become elite playmakers, and using the ‘wrs bust’ is a cop out excuse to taking a tackle just because you want one.

What if Macc thinks Jefferson will be a "playmaker", trades down and takes him?  What would be wrong with that?

I'm not against taking a WR in the 1st.  I'm just not going to fall in line with the sports media who tries (unsuccessfully) to find a "consensus" on who the "top" WR's are, and thus think we should limit ourselves to only 3-4 names.

[Augustiniak]

Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

What if Macc thinks Jefferson will be a "playmaker", trades down and takes him?  What would be wrong with that?

I'm not against taking a WR in the 1st.  I'm just not going to fall in line with the sports media who tries (unsuccessfully) to find a "consensus" on who the "top" WR's are.

I do agree in theory.  But if the jets trade back and take Jefferson and he becomes a good wr but not great, it will not be a good start for douglas if he continually has to explain why he passed on, say, jeudy or lamb and they are top top wrs in the nfl.  And the jets more than any other team in the nfl needs a top wr.  

 

[Jetsfan80]

2 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

I do agree in theory.  But if the jets trade back and take Jefferson and he becomes a good wr but not great, it will not be a good start for douglas if he continually has to explain why he passed on, say, jeudy or lamb and they are top top wrs in the nfl.  And the jets more than any other team in the nfl needs a top wr.  

 

I think Jeudy will be very good.  He has a high floor.  And I'd have no problem taking him at 11.  I'm far from sold on Lamb.

Just depends on how Douglas rates the guys.  If he doesn't like the consensus "top guys" and thinks he can get a solid WR1 after trading down, I see no problem with that.  The numbers suggest the "consensus" top WRs are far from a sure bet, and that happens every single draft.

[Augustiniak]

1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I think Jeudy will be very good.  He has a high floor.  And I'd have no problem taking him at 11.  I'm far from sold on Lamb.

Just depends on how Douglas rates the guys.  If he doesn't like the consensus "top guys" and thinks he can get a solid WR1 after trading down, I see no problem with that.  The numbers suggest the "consensus" top WRs are far from a sure bet, and that happens every single draft.

Agree on no consensus.  I’m a lamb guy, i think he’s deandre Hopkins II.  He and darnold would be amazing to watch.  If they took ruggs, you begin to create mismatches and headaches for defensive coordinators and can still add more weapons later on.  But if they took an OT I’m fine also, i have faith that douglas will address wr early and often on day 2.

[DonCorleone]

On 4/5/2020 at 7:47 AM, De-Jet-Erate/Duane said:

He definitely seems to have a plan. We can only hope he knows what he is doing! 

Being good is extremely important and also having a certain amount of luck. I hope that he has a ton of that as well. 

[Beerfish]

1 hour ago, Augustiniak said:

Agree on no consensus.  I’m a lamb guy, i think he’s deandre Hopkins II.  He and darnold would be amazing to watch.  If they took ruggs, you begin to create mismatches and headaches for defensive coordinators and can still add more weapons later on.  But if they took an OT I’m fine also, i have faith that douglas will address wr early and often on day 2.

O'Brien is such a sheer and utter tool.

[roscoeword]

The year that Odel Beckham was drafted, I remember there were other very good receivers in that draft. How many truly became great?

[Philc1]

21 minutes ago, roscoeword said:

The year that Odel Beckham was drafted, I remember there were other very good receivers in that draft. How many truly became great?

Besides Odell who is now sucking because he has the angry midget as his Qb?  Just one Mike Evans

[Philc1]

1 hour ago, Augustiniak said:

Agree on no consensus.  I’m a lamb guy, i think he’s deandre Hopkins II.  He and darnold would be amazing to watch.  If they took ruggs, you begin to create mismatches and headaches for defensive coordinators and can still add more weapons later on.  But if they took an OT I’m fine also, i have faith that douglas will address wr early and often on day 2.

We really need to trade Adams to get that second first round pick

 

This is such a top heavy draft at our 2 biggest positions of need

 

[Embrace the Suck]

3 hours ago, chirorob said:

It was.   I just meant it was 1 person's way of determining draft pick values for a specific draft, over 20 years ago.

(Good call though, it was Jimmy)

I understood. When you mentioned it his name popped in my head.  The mind is a weird thing since I can barely remember things that don't really matter from last week never mind way back then.

[kevinc855]

On 4/5/2020 at 1:09 PM, Jetsfan80 said:

 

No reason we have to sacrifice quality by moving down a few spots. Good GMs can easily get a player at 16 that they would have also taken at 11 and nail the pick.

 

We haven’t had a good GM since basically forever, so we don’t know what that looks like.

Aren’t you the guys who freak the f out when Jets win “meaningless games” but now sliding back 5 spots is no biggie? 

[Rolloffjet]

This might sound crazy to some but I would take one of the top 3 wr in round 1 and double dip and grab Higgins or Pittman in round 2 then in 3rd grab ot peart or wanogho 

[jetsons]

1 minute ago, Rolloffjet said:

This might sound crazy to some but I would take one of the top 3 wr in round 1 and double dip and grab Higgins or Pittman in round 2 then in 3rd grab ot peart or wanogho 

yup... CRAZY ?

[ryu79]

7 hours ago, Philc1 said:

Besides Odell who is now sucking because he has the angry midget as his Qb?  Just one Mike Evans

Brandin Cooks, Davante Adams, Kelvin Benjamin (had a couple of solid years), Allen Robinson, John Brown, Martavis Bryant.

That was the year of the Idzik 12!

[Vader]

Lamb or Jeudy would be great picks at 11. There is a gulf between what those guys can do - or even what Ruggs potentially can do - and Jefferson. 
 

Jefferson is clear second tier, high second tier, and will probably be over drafted, but he’s not on the same level 

[Greensince69]

27 minutes ago, Vader said:

Lamb or Jeudy would be great picks at 11. There is a gulf between what those guys can do - or even what Ruggs potentially can do - and Jefferson. 
 

Jefferson is clear second tier, high second tier, and will probably be over drafted, but he’s not on the same level 

no one can really say this. over the last 20 years how many sure fire wr have lived up to the billing, Calvin Johnson, Green, Julio Jones?  Hell Claypool may end up being the best receiver in the class when all is said and done. Until they get on the field and compete at the NFL level and show heart an desire and drive its a crapshoot.

[GREENBEAN]

On 4/5/2020 at 9:13 AM, Barry McCockinner said:

Just did a mock w/this trade. My preference is one of the big tackles early, but in this spot they were all gone.

Received:

• Pick 11 - C.J. Henderson
• Pick 191 - Broderick Washington Jr.

Received:

• Pick 16 - Henry Ruggs III
• Pick 78 - Tyler Biadasz
• Pick 119 - Kenny Willekes

Hey I really like the pics of this draft. Let me ask you, did you have to pay for the premium package to be able to trade? I may just pay it if it allows me to do stuff like this.  I may just try a mock with a trade with EVERY team! 

[GREENBEAN]

Now that I read this I think its why I despise trading down so much. 

It could very well be. Parcells did a terrible job with the value of that pick. And he could have had Peyton Manning too OC he just committed to him being the pick at #1. For all of the positives parcells brought here, he really screwed the pooch with that opportunity.


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

[Barry McCockinner]

7 minutes ago, GREENBEAN said:

Hey I really like the pics of this draft. Let me ask you, did you have to pay for the premium package to be able to trade? I may just pay it if it allows me to do stuff like this.  I may just try a mock with a trade with EVERY team! 

Free stuff 

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/mockdraft/

I haven't figure out how it decides what trades to accept or decline. I try to stick to the trade chart and sometimes it likes it, more often it doesn't.

I saw the notification you had reacted to my post and I was hoping it was a downvote!

[ljr]

18 minutes ago, GREENBEAN said:

It could very well be. Parcells did a terrible job with the value of that pick. And he could have had Peyton Manning too OC he just committed to him being the pick at #1. For all of the positives parcells brought here, he really screwed the pooch with that opportunity.


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

my recollection was it was that Bill wouldnt commit to Archie that he was going to stay with us long term

 

whatever the reason, ... Parcells did F that up for us

[LAD_Brooklyn]

9 hours ago, roscoeword said:

The year that Odel Beckham was drafted, I remember there were other very good receivers in that draft. How many truly became great?

In the 2nd round alone went:

Jordan Matthews

Davante Adams

Allen Robinson

Jarvis Landry

[Jetsfan80]

Aren’t you the guys who freak the f out when Jets win “meaningless games” but now sliding back 5 spots is no biggie? 

Wanting the highest pick possible in a lost season does not mean being opposed to trading down. What an absurd argument.

Many times on this board, when a season is headed in a tough direction, I’ve hoped we’d tank properly, then trade down to a QB-needy team for three 1st rounders. Dream scenario if your team sucks.

[GREENBEAN]

On 4/5/2020 at 7:22 PM, Paradis said:

I agree about ideally trading down twice - but I'm not interested in accumulating a plethora of day 3 picks. If we can wind up with 4 to 5 picks total from day 2 in the draft (rounds two and three)  I'll be a happy camper. 

Right! Going through our JN draft process, this thought became abundantly clear. There are nice players to be had on day 3, but the dropoff is real.  It becomes very difficult to land players that will have any impact at all for the next year or two once down past the 4th.  That can be said for every year of course, but with this drafts deep nature, the drop off seems more stark and sudden to me.  

Our trade downs would need to be from the 1st in order to garner any real capital I'd think. 

[GREENBEAN]

8 hours ago, ljr said:

my recollection was it was that Bill wouldnt commit to Archie that he was going to stay with us long term

 

whatever the reason, ... Parcells did F that up for us

I believe it was that bill wouldn't commit to picking Peyton with that pick.  

[GREENBEAN]

8 hours ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Free stuff 

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/mockdraft/

I haven't figure out how it decides what trades to accept or decline. I try to stick to the trade chart and sometimes it likes it, more often it doesn't.

I saw the notification you had reacted to my post and I was hoping it was a downvote!

You feel terrible about what you've done!  and you should!   

[Matt39]

1. CeeDee Lamb, Oklahoma Sooners

Projected yards/season, first five years: 691
Scouts Inc.: No. 7 overall
Similar historical prospects: Odell Beckham Jr., Amari Cooper

For the second consecutive year, an Oklahoma Sooner holds the playmaker projection top spot (Marquise Brown held the distinction last year). Lamb recorded 1,327 yards and 14 touchdowns as a junior in 2019. Moreover, contrary to Oklahoma's reputation from past years as a "pass-happy" team, the Sooners attempted only 381 passes last season. As a result, Lamb has the best touchdowns per team attempt and yards per team attempt of any underclassman wide receiver in this class. In short, Lamb, like many successful NFL wide receivers before him, was the focal point of his college's passing offense.

Another positive sign for Lamb is that his coaches involved him in the running game as well. Lamb had nine rushes in his career -- all last season. That may not seem like many, but any carries at all are a good indicator of whether the wide receiver's coaches thought the player was a special talent who should have the ball in his hands.

Although not necessarily a knock on Lamb, it's worth noting that no other Oklahoma wide receiver prospect was invited to the combine this year, so Lamb does not get any adjustment for playing alongside talented teammates. It's true that Lamb had to fight Brown for pass attempts as a sophomore, but playmaker uses only the receiving numbers from the wide receiver prospect's best season. For Lamb, that was his junior year, after Brown was long gone and catching passes for the Baltimore Ravens.

However, like all draft prospects, Lamb is not a lock to succeed. Lamb had excellent production, but it was not quite to the superhuman level that the very best historical prospects -- such as Randy Moss and Larry Fitzgerald -- reached in college. Still, the numbers think Lamb is well worth his high projected draft position.

 

2. Jerry Jeudy, Alabama Crimson Tide

Projected yards/season, first five years: 668
Scouts Inc.: No. 3 overall
Similar historical prospects: Sammy Watkins, Reggie Wayne

Jeudy was a reasonably productive wide receiver in college, but his numbers are much more impressive in the context of the absurd amount of receiving talent on the Crimson Tide. In 2020, Jeudy had to compete for passes with Henry Ruggs III, who is also projected as a first-round pick. Amazingly, neither Jeudy nor Ruggs was the receiving yards leader on his own team. DeVonta Smith outgained both of them but declined to enter the 2020 NFL draft and is returning to Alabama for his senior season. The 2019 Alabama Crimson Tide might have had the most receiving talent since the 2000 Miami Hurricanes, which sent Reggie Wayne, Santana Moss and (one year later) tight end Jeremy Shockey to the first round (future star Andre Johnson was on the bench).

Playmaker does not give Jeudy credit for playing with Smith, but it gives him a sizable boost for playing with Ruggs. You could argue that it should give Jeudy credit for playing with Smith as well, but historically no adjustment is necessary for players who have to compete with a potential future draftee for passes. Overall, playmaker projects Jeudy to be slightly more productive than the average first-round wide receiver.

 

 

[JustInFudge]

20 minutes ago, Matt39 said:

1. CeeDee Lamb, Oklahoma Sooners

Projected yards/season, first five years: 691
Scouts Inc.: No. 7 overall
Similar historical prospects: Odell Beckham Jr., Amari Cooper

For the second consecutive year, an Oklahoma Sooner holds the playmaker projection top spot (Marquise Brown held the distinction last year). Lamb recorded 1,327 yards and 14 touchdowns as a junior in 2019. Moreover, contrary to Oklahoma's reputation from past years as a "pass-happy" team, the Sooners attempted only 381 passes last season. As a result, Lamb has the best touchdowns per team attempt and yards per team attempt of any underclassman wide receiver in this class. In short, Lamb, like many successful NFL wide receivers before him, was the focal point of his college's passing offense.

Another positive sign for Lamb is that his coaches involved him in the running game as well. Lamb had nine rushes in his career -- all last season. That may not seem like many, but any carries at all are a good indicator of whether the wide receiver's coaches thought the player was a special talent who should have the ball in his hands.

Although not necessarily a knock on Lamb, it's worth noting that no other Oklahoma wide receiver prospect was invited to the combine this year, so Lamb does not get any adjustment for playing alongside talented teammates. It's true that Lamb had to fight Brown for pass attempts as a sophomore, but playmaker uses only the receiving numbers from the wide receiver prospect's best season. For Lamb, that was his junior year, after Brown was long gone and catching passes for the Baltimore Ravens.

However, like all draft prospects, Lamb is not a lock to succeed. Lamb had excellent production, but it was not quite to the superhuman level that the very best historical prospects -- such as Randy Moss and Larry Fitzgerald -- reached in college. Still, the numbers think Lamb is well worth his high projected draft position.

 

2. Jerry Jeudy, Alabama Crimson Tide

Projected yards/season, first five years: 668
Scouts Inc.: No. 3 overall
Similar historical prospects: Sammy Watkins, Reggie Wayne

Jeudy was a reasonably productive wide receiver in college, but his numbers are much more impressive in the context of the absurd amount of receiving talent on the Crimson Tide. In 2020, Jeudy had to compete for passes with Henry Ruggs III, who is also projected as a first-round pick. Amazingly, neither Jeudy nor Ruggs was the receiving yards leader on his own team. DeVonta Smith outgained both of them but declined to enter the 2020 NFL draft and is returning to Alabama for his senior season. The 2019 Alabama Crimson Tide might have had the most receiving talent since the 2000 Miami Hurricanes, which sent Reggie Wayne, Santana Moss and (one year later) tight end Jeremy Shockey to the first round (future star Andre Johnson was on the bench).

Playmaker does not give Jeudy credit for playing with Smith, but it gives him a sizable boost for playing with Ruggs. You could argue that it should give Jeudy credit for playing with Smith as well, but historically no adjustment is necessary for players who have to compete with a potential future draftee for passes. Overall, playmaker projects Jeudy to be slightly more productive than the average first-round wide receiver.

 

 

It's strange to me how 2 prospects who have exactly the same production #'s come off as different in the eyes of this analysis.  So how does 1 have "reasonable" production and the other "excellent" production.  It kind of immediately discredits anything they're trying to sell.  Pretty clear bias IMO.  

I'd take Jeudy, all day, everyday over Ceedee.  Could be wrong but that's my take. 

[slats]

6 minutes ago, JiF said:

It's strange to me how 2 prospects who have exactly the same production #'s come off as different in the eyes of this analysis.  So how does 1 have "reasonable" production and the other "excellent" production.  It kind of immediately discredits anything they're trying to sell.  Pretty clear bias IMO.  

I'd take Jeudy, all day, everyday over Ceedee.  Could be wrong but that's my take. 

The feeling I get is that Jeudy is the safest pick, but that Lamb and Ruggs both have higher ceilings. So it comes down to wanting the steadiness of a Reggie Wayne, or the potential of an OBJ without the crazy. 

[AFerg726]

I highly doubt that we are looking to trade down prior to the draft. With the craziness of remote communications it is more important than ever that teams lay the groundwork for such things in advance. I would rather not trade back if one of the OTs are available, but I would absolutely support moving back for a WR if they were gone. Atlanta makes sense as a trade partner in the event of the 4 OTs being gone at 11; they are not too far back that we couldn't get one of the top WRs and we would add more picks.

[JustInFudge]

17 minutes ago, slats said:

The feeling I get is that Jeudy is the safest pick, but that Lamb and Ruggs both have higher ceilings. So it comes down to wanting the steadiness of a Reggie Wayne, or the potential of an OBJ without the crazy. 

I personally dont see anything while comparing Jeudy to Lamb where Lamb has the higher ceiling. What's the difference in their game that gives Lamb a higher ceiling?  I dont see it.  I not only think Jeudy is safer but I think he has a higher ceiling than Lamb.  And sure, Ruggs athletically might compare to OBJ but OBJ was a much safer pick as he had "excellent production" in his last season vs "reasonable" production that Ruggs put up.  And LSU had Landry too at the time so again, he had to share, similar to Jeudy. 

It's nitpicking time.  If Jeudy projects to be a HOF'er in Wayne, then it's really a no brainer. 

 

[section314]

1 hour ago, GREENBEAN said:

Right! Going through our JN draft process, this thought became abundantly clear. There are nice players to be had on day 3, but the dropoff is real.  It becomes very difficult to land players that will have any impact at all for the next year or two once down past the 4th.  That can be said for every year of course, but with this drafts deep nature, the drop off seems more stark and sudden to me.  

Our trade downs would need to be from the 1st in order to garner any real capital I'd think. 

Yes, or else you start doing Macc type stuff, trading down twice on days two and 3 to get gems like Stewart and Hansen.

[TuscanyTile2]

Are we talking about trading down our pick to the Falcons?  Or is JD just gossiping with the Falcons about us trading down with some other team?

[JetsLife]

If the value is there, do it JD.

Plenty of perennial contenders have done fine drafting late round 1 seemingly every year, while sometimes also accumulating extra picks in rounds 2-4. Of course to make the trading-down approach work, you must have a winning system you can properly draft players for, not to mention having an elite QB.

[Philc1]

12 hours ago, section314 said:

Yes, or else you start doing Macc type stuff, trading down twice on days two and 3 to get gems like Stewart and Hansen.

Stewart the bust Mac drafted over Kenny Golladay and Kareem Hunt and the next Wayne Chrebet Chad Hansen

 

How Mac lasted 4+ years here goes to show how awful the Johnsons really are