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Future Observations (BUF)


KRL

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@KRL, you hit the nail on the head. To add to that, I think a key way Douglas will be looking to add talent is via trade. Teams that will be looking to shed good players on bad contracts that we wouldn't have attracted in FA. Just cause we have a bunch of cap doesn't mean we'll be able to attract the talent, trades will be key.

Wouldn't shock me to see one of Julio, Thomas, or OBJ in the building next year. I'm sure there are going to be far more players that come to light as well. 

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32 minutes ago, Paradis said:

Seriously -- what happened to Fatukasi and Shepherd. Both were on their way to making the QW nightmare forgettable last year and they've been invisible in 2020

Strong disagree about Fatukasi.  All I do is watch the Dline when the Jets play defense, and he consistently gets more push than QW.  He also has more gap integrity and is less prone to getting trapped.  Of course he is slow as hell so you'll almost never see him anywhere near the ball and doesn't have QW's range, pass rush moves or upside.

QW meanwhile is showing up on the stat sheet, but its imo a bit of a mirage.  A lot of his sacks are coverage/other player's initial pressure.

For what it's worth, PFF agrees with me (but not by much), and has Fatu at 70.2 rating and QW at 69.9 (35th ranked DI).  So basically dead even.

Fatu is also playing more reps recently, and I get the feeling that both he and QW are not super in shape and gas a little bit too easily.

Agreed about Sheperd, he's been trash.

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41 minutes ago, Hael said:

Strong disagree about Fatukasi.  All I do is watch the Dline when the Jets play defense, and he consistently gets more push than QW.  He also has more gap integrity and is less prone to getting trapped.  Of course he is slow as hell so you'll almost never see him anywhere near the ball and doesn't have QW's range, pass rush moves or upside.

QW meanwhile is showing up on the stat sheet, but its imo a bit of a mirage.  A lot of his sacks are coverage/other player's initial pressure.

For what it's worth, PFF agrees with me (but not by much), and has Fatu at 70.2 rating and QW at 69.9 (35th ranked DI).  So basically dead even.

Fatu is also playing more reps recently, and I get the feeling that both he and QW are not super in shape and gas a little bit too easily.

Agreed about Sheperd, he's been trash.

good to know -- i can't pretend to say i've watched the defense with the same level of scrutiny. I'm too disgusted with our HC with be watching with anything more than passive interest... dark place to be

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1 hour ago, Paradis said:

Seriously -- what happened to Fatukasi and Shepherd. Both were on their way to making the QW nightmare forgettable last year and they've been invisible in 2020

Shepard could have just been the sauce he was on.  Dude came back from suspension and was crushing it but it was probably still in his system lol

 

Fatukasi is the real interesting question though because he graded as one of the best interior DL against the run last season and was a huge part of why the defense was so good at stopping the run.  Surprised he hasnt been getting any burn, or maybe he has and he's been that bad?  I havent heard his name in weeks. 

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6 minutes ago, peekskill68 said:

The more he plays, the lower Darnold's trade value drops.  Wouldn't surprise me at some point if he doesn't "re-injure" his shoulder to go on IR.  Gives Morgan a shot to see what he has...

Gase will never play Morgan.  

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4 minutes ago, LIJetsFan said:

Gase will never play Morgan.  

If he's dead man walking, and JD convinces CJ to go all in on the tank, what leverage does he have?  Resign?

This is the perfect year to go all in on tanking.  No live fans, TV ratings down, generational talent at #1

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I don't agree with the "get rid of Darnold, he's done" crowd.  He's playing on a team coached by Adam Gase.  We've all seen what happens when Gase goes.  Players get better.  Tannehill is a MVP candidate.

For a team that has been devoid of talent at the QB position for decades if we happen to pick #1 simply pick Trevor and let them duke it out.  If Trevor is the man then we shop Darnold.  

It is my strong belief that as soon as Gase goes and a real HC comes in here we will see many, many players start to play better.  

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3 hours ago, KRL said:

I was shortsighted just a week ago, I was still thinking about
keeping Darnold and trading the rights to Lawrence for a massive
haul.  But the key for a GM building a team is to have a big
time QB on a cheap rookie deal and financial freedom to fill the
rest of the roster.  Its now imperative we get Lawrence and restart
the clock with his rookie deal, this doesn't give Douglas any excuses
though.  A good HC with a properly constructed roster should have 
us ready to challenge for a playoff spot in 2021

IF we cannot draft Lawrence, whether he listens to the knuckle heads telling him not to go to the Jets, or we don't get the first over all pick, we have to look at Justin Fields and see if he can do the trick.  Otherwise, if we can't get them two, we need to perhaps trade the pick for a haul and run with Darnold for another year. 

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3 hours ago, KRL said:

I was shortsighted just a week ago, I was still thinking about
keeping Darnold and trading the rights to Lawrence for a massive
haul.  But the key for a GM building a team is to have a big
time QB on a cheap rookie deal and financial freedom to fill the
rest of the roster.  Its now imperative we get Lawrence and restart
the clock with his rookie deal, this doesn't give Douglas any excuses
though.  A good HC with a properly constructed roster should have 
us ready to challenge for a playoff spot in 2021

This is exactly how I feel. Darnold had a chance to silence the critics this year. He hasn't. The kid is in an impossible spot here. They have to make sure they don't do the same thing to Trevor if they end up with the # 1 pick.

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2 hours ago, Chrebetfan80 said:

Shepard could have just been the sauce he was on.  Dude came back from suspension and was crushing it but it was probably still in his system lol

 

Fatukasi is the real interesting question though because he graded as one of the best interior DL against the run last season and was a huge part of why the defense was so good at stopping the run.  Surprised he hasnt been getting any burn, or maybe he has and he's been that bad?  I havent heard his name in weeks. 

Well the run D has been getting gashed a lot, so no real reason for him to have his name called much. 

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4 hours ago, KRL said:

I was shortsighted just a week ago, I was still thinking about
keeping Darnold and trading the rights to Lawrence for a massive
haul.  But the key for a GM building a team is to have a big
time QB on a cheap rookie deal and financial freedom to fill the
rest of the roster.  Its now imperative we get Lawrence and restart
the clock with his rookie deal, this doesn't give Douglas any excuses
though.  A good HC with a properly constructed roster should have 
us ready to challenge for a playoff spot in 2021

This is spot on.   When you can pick another QB top 3 and have 4-5 years on the rookie deal, and your current yr 4 QB looks very suspect, you move on.

When Darnold was drafted 3rd overall, the job of the GM was to 10X down on that bet and build around him.  If the QB did not work, you still have a team.  Mac bungled this, Douglas could not fix it last year, and this year Douglas must have decided Sam was not worth it.   

3 hours ago, peekskill68 said:

If he's dead man walking, and JD convinces CJ to go all in on the tank, what leverage does he have?  Resign?

This is the perfect year to go all in on tanking.  No live fans, TV ratings down, generational talent at #1

The contracts are very clear about who has authority.  Gase as HC decides who plays.  If you don't like it, you get to fire him and pay him out. 

1 hour ago, jetstream23 said:

Complete waste of a Draft pick in Round 4 on a team that needs so much help.  An OLineman, another WR, a better RB all would have done more for the offense than selecting a guy you hope will develop over time into your backup QB.  It was just a strange pick IMO.

Maybe there is evil genius here.  Maybe Morgan is the long-term back up, and plays while Trevor learns.  

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Theoretically speaking this COULD be a quick rebuild where they’re competing for playoffs next year or year after.
My first order of business would be locking up a long term contract for LG from New England Thueney. 

Then I’d look to add a prolific WR via free agency or trade this off-season. Some of those names who might be available: JuJu, Allen Robinson, Godwin, Michael Thomas. 

With the draft obviously they hope is we land Lawrence 1. Then with the other top 2 picks we should be targeting tight ends as this class has a couple good ones. And either Najee Harris or Travis Etienne at RB. 
 

that’s a blueprint right there for the new head coach and Lawrence to walk into a semi competent offense at least that should be willing to compete

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5 hours ago, bla bla bla said:

@KRL, you hit the nail on the head. To add to that, I think a key way Douglas will be looking to add talent is via trade. Teams that will be looking to shed good players on bad contracts that we wouldn't have attracted in FA. Just cause we have a bunch of cap doesn't mean we'll be able to attract the talent, trades will be key.

Wouldn't shock me to see one of Julio, Thomas, or OBJ in the building next year. I'm sure there are going to be far more players that come to light as well. 

This scares me a bit. The Jets overpay in free agency, and get guys who do nothing well but cash their checks. Getting sent to the Jets in a trade? Yeah, I bet that's pretty high on every vet's wish list right about now. 

1 hour ago, jetstream23 said:

Complete waste of a Draft pick in Round 4 on a team that needs so much help.  An OLineman, another WR, a better RB all would have done more for the offense than selecting a guy you hope will develop over time into your backup QB.  It was just a strange pick IMO.

I get the frustration, but if Morgan is even just a decent backup beginning next year -a guy who you can trust to come in and manage the game- it's a good pick. If he shows starter capability or has trade value, it's a great pick. 

And @KRL, I appreciate your optimism, man. I'm more checked out than Bradley McDougald at this point. 

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5 hours ago, Hael said:

Strong disagree about Fatukasi.  All I do is watch the Dline when the Jets play defense, and he consistently gets more push than QW.  He also has more gap integrity and is less prone to getting trapped.  Of course he is slow as hell so you'll almost never see him anywhere near the ball and doesn't have QW's range, pass rush moves or upside.

QW meanwhile is showing up on the stat sheet, but its imo a bit of a mirage.  A lot of his sacks are coverage/other player's initial pressure.

For what it's worth, PFF agrees with me (but not by much), and has Fatu at 70.2 rating and QW at 69.9 (35th ranked DI).  So basically dead even.

Fatu is also playing more reps recently, and I get the feeling that both he and QW are not super in shape and gas a little bit too easily.

Agreed about Sheperd, he's been trash.

Fatukasi was hustling hard yesterday. He looked gassed, you're probably right about his conditioning but I think he's a keeper.

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7 hours ago, KRL said:

The season is beyond over and for the first time in my life I'm 
rooting for the team to go 0-16.  There is absolutely no benefit
to winning any games, the Joe Douglas plan is now clear:

- Secure the #1 pick
- Fire Adam Gase and find the right HC
- Ensure that Trevor Lawrence is coming out
- Deal Sam Darnold
- With tons of cap space and picks surround Lawrence with a
properly constructed roster when he steps on the practice field
for the first time

In terms of roster construction let's take a look at some young
pieces to see if they can be part of the future:

Offense

- Mekhi Becton is an absolute beast with unlimited upside.  Incredible
power, movement skills and decent technique for someone so young

- Cameron Clark needs to be worked into one of the guard spots as the
season continues.  Because I haven't been impressed with Greg Van Roten,
way too much softness at his spot

- Chuma Edoga should be pushing George Fant but too many injuries and
inconsistency makes me wonder about him long term

- Chris Herndon's game has gone into the toilet.  I would keep him and see
if the next staff can salvage his career but a new #1 TE has to be found.
Hard to believe he's the same player who was making acrobatic catches and
stretching the seam in 2018

- Decent debut for Denzel Mims, now he has to stay on the field and adjust
to the pro level.  Because in the first half he was making a nice impact
but then BUF put White on him and he disappeared.  Stay in Hines Ward office
and learn all the "tricks" to deal with top notch CB's

- LaMical Perine shows good explosion to the hole and plays faster than his
40 time.  But he has a ton of work to do in pass protection.  Way too many
times Perine is late finding his responsibility and gets pushed back into
the QB's lap

- Its too bad and way too soon but Sam Darnold needs another team.  We all
know the countless issues where the Jets didn't support his growth (OLine,
skill positions, coaching).  But the first half INT he threw was mindless
and makes you wonder if he'll ever be a franchise QB.  You just can't throw
into triple coverage when you're almost in FG position.  It makes you question
his ability to see coverages and situational awareness.  There are multiple
teams that could be looking for a QB (PIT, IND, NE, JAX, DEN, WSH, MIN?)
maybe we can get a #2.  But with the questions about Darnold's game and his
rookie deal running out the best we may get is a #3.  Amazing that his "era"
could close so soon


Defense

- Quinnen Williams has grown and has flashed his Alabama talents.  He's on pace
for 63 Tackles, 7 Sacks and 17 TFL's which is the range of production I wanted.

Now its on Douglas to get multiple edge rushers in the off-season where the new
DC can have outside pressure from them with Williams applying the inside pressure.
If proper moves are made we may actually see an NFL caliber pass rush

- I like the potential of John Franklin-Myers and Bryce Huff.  Both have shown
athleticism and the ability to penetrate in their limited reps.  I want to see 
more of them down the stretch to determine if they could be starters or JAGs
going forward

- I want to see more Blake Cashman at ILB. Avery Williamson isn't going to be
here going forward and could be traded.  We need to see if Cashman can stay
on the field and produce as the "speed/coverage" ILB

- Bradley McDougald has checked out and needs to go.  Marcus Maye needs to be
re-signed as the veteran/stabilizer in the secondary.  Bless Austin, Bryce Hall
and Ashtyn Davis all need to be elevated to starters.  Let them take their lumps
this year but they could be a young, talented and cheap group next year  

Quinnen needs to learn how to tackle the QB once he has him in his sights. Dating back to last year he has too often drawn a flag for the way he hits the QB . Luckily that's easier to teach than the natural born talent he brings to the table.

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2 hours ago, varjet said:

This is spot on.   When you can pick another QB top 3 and have 4-5 years on the rookie deal, and your current yr 4 QB looks very suspect, you move on.

When Darnold was drafted 3rd overall, the job of the GM was to 10X down on that bet and build around him.  If the QB did not work, you still have a team.  Mac bungled this, Douglas could not fix it last year, and this year Douglas must have decided Sam was not worth it.   

The contracts are very clear about who has authority.  Gase as HC decides who plays.  If you don't like it, you get to fire him and pay him out. 

Maybe there is evil genius here.  Maybe Morgan is the long-term back up, and plays while Trevor learns.  

Nice post but the evil genius bit is a bridge too far :) 

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7 hours ago, KRL said:

 

- Chris Herndon's game has gone into the toilet.  I would keep him and see
if the next staff can salvage his career but a new #1 TE has to be found.
Hard to believe he's the same player who was making acrobatic catches and
stretching the seam in 2018

 

Who is this Chris Herndon of which you speak ? 

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8 hours ago, KRL said:

The season is beyond over and for the first time in my life I'm 
rooting for the team to go 0-16.  There is absolutely no benefit
to winning any games, the Joe Douglas plan is now clear:

- Secure the #1 pick
- Fire Adam Gase and find the right HC
- Ensure that Trevor Lawrence is coming out
- Deal Sam Darnold
- With tons of cap space and picks surround Lawrence with a
properly constructed roster when he steps on the practice field
for the first time

In terms of roster construction let's take a look at some young
pieces to see if they can be part of the future:

Offense

- Mekhi Becton is an absolute beast with unlimited upside.  Incredible
power, movement skills and decent technique for someone so young

- Cameron Clark needs to be worked into one of the guard spots as the
season continues.  Because I haven't been impressed with Greg Van Roten,
way too much softness at his spot

- Chuma Edoga should be pushing George Fant but too many injuries and
inconsistency makes me wonder about him long term

- Chris Herndon's game has gone into the toilet.  I would keep him and see
if the next staff can salvage his career but a new #1 TE has to be found.
Hard to believe he's the same player who was making acrobatic catches and
stretching the seam in 2018

- Decent debut for Denzel Mims, now he has to stay on the field and adjust
to the pro level.  Because in the first half he was making a nice impact
but then BUF put White on him and he disappeared.  Stay in Hines Ward office
and learn all the "tricks" to deal with top notch CB's

- LaMical Perine shows good explosion to the hole and plays faster than his
40 time.  But he has a ton of work to do in pass protection.  Way too many
times Perine is late finding his responsibility and gets pushed back into
the QB's lap

- Its too bad and way too soon but Sam Darnold needs another team.  We all
know the countless issues where the Jets didn't support his growth (OLine,
skill positions, coaching).  But the first half INT he threw was mindless
and makes you wonder if he'll ever be a franchise QB.  You just can't throw
into triple coverage when you're almost in FG position.  It makes you question
his ability to see coverages and situational awareness.  There are multiple
teams that could be looking for a QB (PIT, IND, NE, JAX, DEN, WSH, MIN?)
maybe we can get a #2.  But with the questions about Darnold's game and his
rookie deal running out the best we may get is a #3.  Amazing that his "era"
could close so soon


Defense

- Quinnen Williams has grown and has flashed his Alabama talents.  He's on pace
for 63 Tackles, 7 Sacks and 17 TFL's which is the range of production I wanted.
Now its on Douglas to get multiple edge rushers in the off-season where the new
DC can have outside pressure from them with Williams applying the inside pressure.
If proper moves are made we may actually see an NFL caliber pass rush

- I like the potential of John Franklin-Myers and Bryce Huff.  Both have shown
athleticism and the ability to penetrate in their limited reps.  I want to see 
more of them down the stretch to determine if they could be starters or JAGs
going forward

- I want to see more Blake Cashman at ILB. Avery Williamson isn't going to be
here going forward and could be traded.  We need to see if Cashman can stay
on the field and produce as the "speed/coverage" ILB

- Bradley McDougald has checked out and needs to go.  Marcus Maye needs to be
re-signed as the veteran/stabilizer in the secondary.  Bless Austin, Bryce Hall
and Ashtyn Davis all need to be elevated to starters.  Let them take their lumps
this year but they could be a young, talented and cheap group next year  

I agree with everything you said with the exception of Blake Cashman.  I was actually hoping that he would be cut before the start of the season.  I don't think he can stay on the field, and I believe that his upside is limited.  I don't believe he is a guy that can help us get to the next level.  Just my opinion. 

In terms of Bradley McDougald, I haven't noticed his play lately.  Very disappointing if what you are saying about him is true.  He seemed to be a quality person and a solid player when we got him.  

Do you think it is the losing that has caused him to check out, or the competition at his position that  has him feeling that he might end up a backup?

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4 hours ago, CanadaSteve said:

IF we cannot draft Lawrence, whether he listens to the knuckle heads telling him not to go to the Jets, or we don't get the first over all pick, we have to look at Justin Fields and see if he can do the trick.  Otherwise, if we can't get them two, we need to perhaps trade the pick for a haul and run with Darnold for another year. 

Fields definitely should be looked at if we don't get #1.  My
biggest problem with him is when he runs the ball he acts like
a RB and not a QB.  He takes on too much contact and that could
get him hurt.  Fields needs to slide and look for the sidelines

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6 minutes ago, KRL said:

Fields definitely should be looked at if we don't get #1.  My
biggest problem with him is when he runs the ball he acts like
a RB and not a QB
.  He takes on too much contact and that could
get him hurt.  Fields needs to slide and look for the sidelines

That's no longer a big problem in today's NFL, if you've been paying attention.

Meanwhile, pocket passer Andy Dalton suffered the big concussion yesterday.  So no one is really immune.

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