If a respected team makes a strong offer for Sam

[AFJF]

Mentioned this on the JN podcast the other day and wanted to pitch it to the board.  Through several tweets from prominent insiders, here are a few things I've seen in terms of predicting what the Jets might be able to get for Sam.

Rap sheets said they an probably get a second-round pick

Breer said they should be able to get a 2 and a 3.

Matt Miller (yes, I realize he's not in the same league as Rap and Breer) said to expect at least 10 teams to bid on him.

 

If it ends up being 10 teams (or even in that ballpark), you have to figure one or two of them will be respected franchises, like the Saints for instance.

 

So if you're Joe Douglas, and you need a quarterback, does the fact that there is so much interest in Sam make you stop and wonder what it is they see in him that you don't?  I mean, if Sean Payton calls and says "Drew is retiring, so we'll give you one or two premium picks for him", doesn't that make you wonder why you're getting rid of him?  

I think they move on from Sam and I understand why, but if everyone who says "he sucks" and "he's trash" were correct, there wouldn't be anyone willing to give up anything for him.  But if it's an offer like some are predicting....

 

[Maxman]

Good question, if there were 10 teams interested that would have to make you think about things. Anytime you are swimming in the other direction, you have to at least confirm things in your own mind.

Really is going to come down to the evaluation of Fields. If they feel he is a franchise \ can't miss guy. 

If they think Fields or Wilson is an upgrade from Sam but not a sure thing, they could trade with the Bengals to 5 and let things play out.

In that scenario you would have to keep Sam on draft day just in case. If the Bengals go OT at 2, you need 1 QB to drop to 5.

[Be_a_Jet]

If your JD you either thought it through with your new HC or you’re keeping him. No need to second guess even with offers from big franchises - different situations, different teams. The only consideration he should have is dealing him to an AFC team vs NFC - ideally he goes to NFC or at least outside AFC East. 
 

If something like that makes him second guess then his plan to build a team with new QB must not have been completely thought out yet. 

[Defense Wins Championships]

Sam was the 47th out of 50th rated QB this year. He stinks. 

No GM will offer a 2nd round pick for him lol when he'll be released next off-season before his 5th year option and can be had without WASTING valuable draft picks. 

He'll go for a 5th. At best a 4th if JD hits the lottery. 

[AFJF]

4 minutes ago, Defense Wins Championships said:

Sam was the 47th out of 50th rated QB this year. He stinks. 

No GM will offer a 2nd round pick for him lol when he'll be released next off-season before his 5th year option and can be had without WASTING valuable draft picks. 

He'll go for a 5th. At best a 4th if JD hits the lottery. 

Could be, but I'm operating on the premise that Rapoport and Breer have a better idea than I do.

[ScarletKnight89]

If you are Joe Douglas, you have to have confidence in your evaluation of Sam Darnold. Don't be reliant on the rest of the league. 

[Rhg1084]

15 minutes ago, AFJF said:

Mentioned this on the JN podcast the other day and wanted to pitch it to the board.  Through several tweets from prominent insiders, here are a few things I've seen in terms of predicting what the Jets might be able to get for Sam.

Rap sheets said they an probably get a second-round pick

Breer said they should be able to get a 2 and a 3.

Matt Miller (yes, I realize he's not in the same league as Rap and Breer) said to expect at least 10 teams to bid on him.

 

If it ends up being 10 teams (or even in that ballpark), you have to figure one or two of them will be respected franchises, like the Saints for instance.

 

So if you're Joe Douglas, and you need a quarterback, does the fact that there is so much interest in Sam make you stop and wonder what it is they see in him that you don't?  I mean, if Sean Payton calls and says "Drew is retiring, so we'll give you one or two premium picks for him", doesn't that make you wonder why you're getting rid of him?  

I think they move on from Sam and I understand why, but if everyone who says "he sucks" and "he's trash" were correct, there wouldn't be anyone willing to give up anything for him.  But if it's an offer like some are predicting....

 

But if those 10 respected teams had the option of Fields on a rookie contract or Sam coming into his 4th year which choice do you think they’d take? 

[Prodigal Syndicate]

I cant imagine any team trading for him.

[jeremy2020]

11 hours ago, AFJF said:

Could be, but I'm operating on the premise that Rapoport and Breer have a better idea than I do.

I'd trust your insider network before either of theirs..

Keep in mind, they don't pay a consequence for being wrong, but the get the accolades if they're right. So it's in their best interest to report as much as possible. 

It would be awesome if there was a site that kept of a history of predictions from media personalities and how often they were right versus wrong;

[RedBeardedSavage]

23 minutes ago, Defense Wins Championships said:

Sam was the 47th out of 50th rated QB this year. He stinks. 

No GM will offer a 2nd round pick for him lol when he'll be released next off-season before his 5th year option and can be had without WASTING valuable draft picks. 

He'll go for a 5th. At best a 4th if JD hits the lottery. 

I get that he played terrible this year. I'm not arguing otherwise.

But just a week ago, our most hated rival, with half their defense having opted out because of a pandemic, sent three rushers nearly every play and generated pressure within 2 seconds.

I mean, at some point we have to acknowledge that any quarterback handing off to 37 year old Frank Gore, throwing to Braxton Berrios, being coached by Adam Gase and being pressured in 2 seconds by the three man rush of a depleted defense, is not going to play well.

I'm fine if it's time to move on. I get it. But jettisoning Sam isn't going to solve most of those problems... it's just going to be there for the next guy.

If it's up to me, I keep Sam for another year, not because anything he's done to deserve it, but rather because any pick or trade we make for another quarterback isn't going to change those circumstances. We simply do not have the talent on offense to compete in this league against anyone.

I say we go Ja Marr Chase early and the Ohio State guard and center at the back end of the first/early second. We've got two picks next year... we can move up for the QB we like next year, but we'd have built a worthy offensive line and taken a dynamic, true #1 WR in the meantime.

[SAR I]

Fill out the paperwork so quickly that the other GM doesn’t get a chance to see you smiling.  

SAR I

[SomebodytoAnybody47]

Nope cuz you’re then making moves based on other people’s opinions. 
Either way, sometimes you just need a reset. 

[nycdan]

1 hour ago, AFJF said:

Mentioned this on the JN podcast the other day and wanted to pitch it to the board.  Through several tweets from prominent insiders, here are a few things I've seen in terms of predicting what the Jets might be able to get for Sam.

Rap sheets said they an probably get a second-round pick

Breer said they should be able to get a 2 and a 3.

Matt Miller (yes, I realize he's not in the same league as Rap and Breer) said to expect at least 10 teams to bid on him.

 

If it ends up being 10 teams (or even in that ballpark), you have to figure one or two of them will be respected franchises, like the Saints for instance.

 

So if you're Joe Douglas, and you need a quarterback, does the fact that there is so much interest in Sam make you stop and wonder what it is they see in him that you don't?  I mean, if Sean Payton calls and says "Drew is retiring, so we'll give you one or two premium picks for him", doesn't that make you wonder why you're getting rid of him?  

I think they move on from Sam and I understand why, but if everyone who says "he sucks" and "he's trash" were correct, there wouldn't be anyone willing to give up anything for him.  But if it's an offer like some are predicting....

 

Joe Douglas may not view Sam the same way the majority of this board does.  And that's okay.  

[doitny]

41 minutes ago, AFJF said:

Could be, but I'm operating on the premise that Rapoport and Breer have a better idea than I do.

in another post someone posted an article about what happends when a GM hires a coach. in it they also said how coaches agents become " sources " so as to drum up interest in there client. makes me wonder if thats whats going on here with Sam. how in the hell can he have 10 teams interested while ranked 47th.

but interest might not be what you think it means.  

i dont need  another car, but if you selling a 10 yr old sh*t box i would be interested to use  it to knock around with..... for the right price.

4th or 5th rd picks i can see 10 teams. most teams strike out in these rds anyway so why not.

1 or 2, no way.

[win4ever]

There's actually some interesting notes from the psychology of conformity that might apply here.  I believe they are the Asch conformity experiments, with one being the famous elevator scene.  A person enters the elevator and stands the right way.  Afterwards, everyone who enters faces the opposite way, to the point that the first person is convinced that they were wrong, and turns around to the opposite way.  However, they found out that people are more likely to stick to their beliefs, if just one other person confirms their original (and correct form of thinking).  

In this case, while 10 teams reaching out may form conformity, would a respected team that may need a QB NOT reaching out confirm Douglas' initial thought? In this I'm assuming Douglas may want to trade Darnold, an idea I can't confirm one way or another.  

I think the line of thinking ywas the major reason behind McCagnnan, who seemed to be infatuated with group consensus more so than team specific scouting.  The idea that groupthink leads to the best results without factoring in the needs of individual situations and the unique circumstances that force them to choose a pathway.  

Let's take the Saints example (albeit I think it's unlikely, they seen enamored with Taysom Hill, so let's assume he's not on the team)...

Why do the Saints want Darnold? 

Brees is retiring, which leaves a QB void.

They are in the playoffs, so they can't afford to draft one of the top QBs unless they move a ton of picks

They are in cap hell, so they can't afford to sign free agents of much value

Their path to rebuilding means taking a chance on a guy with a very good draft grade, who struggled to develop under Adam Gase and severe lack of weapons in NY, while still being young.  You get this guy for a second round pick, and if you hit, you have your next young QB for years.  If you miss, well you didn't have many other avenues to find a QB with this much upside at a young age.  

How does it differ from the Jets?

We have direct access to the No. 2 pick, at which point we can get a young QB, without trading away picks.   

We have cap space, meaning we can sign a free agent QB if need be as well

Therefore, our path to a legitimate QB has numerous viable options, one of which is retaining Darnold.  

In this case, the interest from the Saints shouldn't signal an inherent flaw in self scouting because they have different levels of resources to achieve a goal (again hypothetically, because I don't think they will be interested).  

[jetstream23]

Under this logic the Steelers should have panicked about why the Jets were offering Le’Veon Bell $13M and tried to keep him.

[Spoot-Face]

If some team offers a 2, you take that and run.

[AFJF]

51 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

Under this logic the Steelers should have panicked about why the Jets were offering Le’Veon Bell $13M and tied to keep him.

Apples to astronauts comparison.

Bell hit FA after years of failed negotiations despite very generous offers from the Steelers.

[Greenbloodblitz]

2 hours ago, Defense Wins Championships said:

Sam was the 47th out of 50th rated QB this year. He stinks. 

No GM will offer a 2nd round pick for him lol when he'll be released next off-season before his 5th year option and can be had without WASTING valuable draft picks. 

He'll go for a 5th. At best a 4th if JD hits the lottery. 

No dude. Just No. I get that you're passionate man but sometimes you're just out of your mind.

3 years ago Sam Darnold was the 3rd overall pick in the NFL draft and the number one consensus rated overall quarterback.

Only a few days before the draft did Baker Mayfield rise up the boards. The Jets will definitely get a second-round pick from Denver, Detroit, Frisco, Raiders, Washington, The Cowboys maybe even Minnesota.

What QB in this upcoming draft in the second round is better than Sam Darnold? The answer is none.

The kid isn't a head case and he checks every box. He got a raw deal in New York as well as our previous head coach. Unprecedented times...

Listen we have all been through tough times at jobs or in relationships with women ( if you're into that kind of thing) and sometimes it just isn't the right place or the right time. The kid just needs a fresh start. Stats are made to be stuck up asses. It's about people.

If I'm the new head coach I say trade Sam because I'm not here to focus on a Reclamation project. Draft a quarterback with the second pick. Hopefully it's Fields who's the best quarterback in the draft by a mile btw, and start fresh.

Darnold will move on in his career and be a pretty good quarterback.

[doitny]

18 minutes ago, Greenbloodblitz said:

No dude. Just No. I get that you're passionate man but sometimes you're just out of your mind.

3 years ago Sam Darnold was the 3rd overall pick in the NFL draft and the number one consensus rated overall quarterback.

Only a few days before the draft did Baker Mayfield rise up the boards. The Jets will definitely get a second-round pick from Denver, Detroit, Frisco, Raiders, Washington, The Cowboys maybe even Minnesota.

What QB in this upcoming draft in the second round is better than Sam Darnold? The answer is none.

The kid isn't a head case and he checks every box. He got a raw deal in New York as well as our previous head coach. Unprecedented times...

Listen we have all been through tough times at jobs or in relationships with women ( if you're into that kind of thing) and sometimes it just isn't the right place or the right time. The kid just needs a fresh start. Stats are made to be stuck up asses. It's about people.

If I'm the new head coach I say trade Sam because I'm not here to focus on a Reclamation project. Draft a quarterback with the second pick. Hopefully it's Fields who's the best quarterback in the draft by a mile btw, and start fresh.

Darnold will move on in his career and be a pretty good quarterback.

where have you been for 3 years?

ok maybe Sam isn't a headcase. but maybe he is. what if Sam really isnt that good. would you risk a 2 to find out?

the way this trade most likely goes down is on incentives. they give us a 5th rd pick in 2022. 

now if Sam plays X amounts of the OFF snaps i will make it a 4th. if he does good like gets 30 TDs and over 3k yds i will make it a 3. 

now maybe a team might go 4-3 and then a 2. but no way does a team give you a 2 with no strings attached after what Sam has did the last 3 years.

and if your wrong and Sam cant turn it around you just lost a 2nd rd pick. that is stuff that people lose there jobs over.

so if you want that #2 i will give it to you, it Sam proves he worth it. and there cant be no project. no sitting on the bench for a year. he must start right away cause he a FA after 2021. 

and theres another problem. he a FA after 2021. what if a team like Wash gives us a 2 and then Sam decides for leave. might want to play back in Cali. you could do a sign and trade. but would Sam do that one year out from FA. how much would a team trading for him be willing to pay a QB who had 9 TD and 11 INTs. 

 

 

[jgb]

I don’t buy the hype personally. There has never been a situation in NFL history that I am aware where a QB who was so bad for so long went for so high. Why is Darnold special/different from the dozens/hundreds(?) of players before? Add to the fact he’s on last year of his rookie deal and — I don’t believe — he will be acquired as presumptive starter.

Of course, maybe I’m wrong and the league feels that this team recently and Gase are such historical jokes that they can’t trust how we deal with anyone. Guess we will know soon.

[Jet2020]

1 hour ago, jgb said:

I don’t buy the hype personally. There has never been a situation in NFL history that I am aware where a QB who was so bad for so long went for so high. Why is Darnold special/different from the dozens/hundreds(?) of players before? Add to the fact he’s on last year of his rookie deal and — I don’t believe — he will be acquired as presumptive starter.

Of course, maybe I’m wrong and the league feels that this team recently and Gase are such historical jokes that they can’t trust how we deal with anyone. Guess we will know soon.

I don’t think being on a rookie deal makes a difference. It’s not like a team would have to offer 20mil to sign him if he was a FA right now. 

[bitonti]

4 hours ago, nycdan said:

Joe Douglas may not view Sam the same way the majority of this board does.  And that's okay.  

Yeah jd has a higher opinion of Sam Darnold than the board and likely a higher opinion on Sewell and a lower opinion on fields. And that's okay too 

[jgb]

1 hour ago, Jet2020 said:

I don’t think being on a rookie deal makes a difference. It’s not like a team would have to offer 20mil to sign him if he was a FA right now. 

I believe it affects trade value. Only one year left on deal. This is why I don't think the comp Arizona got for Rosen (a 2nd, I believe) is a good comp.

[Gibby]

6 hours ago, Maxman said:

Good question, if there were 10 teams interested that would have to make you think about things. Anytime you are swimming in the other direction, you have to at least confirm things in your own mind.

Really is going to come down to the evaluation of Fields. If they feel he is a franchise \ can't miss guy. 

If they think Fields or Wilson is an upgrade from Sam but not a sure thing, they could trade with the Bengals to 5 and let things play out.

In that scenario you would have to keep Sam on draft day just in case. If the Bengals go OT at 2, you need 1 QB to drop to 5.

My feeling is- if they hire Daboll..... They stick with Sam.

[jgb]

1 hour ago, bitonti said:

Yeah jd has a higher opinion of Sam Darnold than the board and likely a higher opinion on Sewell and a lower opinion on fields. And that's okay too 

Absolutely 100% could be the case. Would've been really interesting had Jets landed #1. I still think if we are handicapping it, there's a 1-8 chance or so we draft Fields. But it absolutely depends on JD's and the new HC's opinion of Fields. In any case it's really difficult to see Wilson going #2 overall in any scenario.

[jgb]

22 minutes ago, Gibby said:

My feeling is- if they hire Daboll..... They stick with Sam.

Not sure about that. Daboll may want someone with tools similar to Allen, the QB with which he has experienced his best career success to date. That is obviously Fields over Darnold.

I'd be more inclined to agree if the Jets were bereft of draft capital, then the argument that he would prefer to keep Sam and trade down to acquire capital to build around the QB like they did in BUF could be more compelling to me. Let's also not forget the Jets have a mountain of salary cap. You can both draft a QB and build around him massively.

[Losmeister]

why would a respected team make a strong offer for teh WORST QB in the NFL over the last 3 yrs?

[jgb]

7 hours ago, Prodigal Syndicate said:

I cant imagine any team trading for him.

If Jets take a QB at #2, he's getting traded. Question is for what.

6 hours ago, SAR I said:

Fill out the paperwork so quickly that the other GM doesn’t get a chance to see you smiling.  

SAR I

Duper's delight lol. JD should wear a mask during the negotiation.

4 hours ago, AFJF said:

Apples to astronauts comparison.

Bell hit FA after years of failed negotiations despite very generous offers from the Steelers.

Bell's agent should be on the bread line

9 minutes ago, Losmeister said:

why would a respected team make a strong offer for teh WORST QB in the NFL over the last 3 yrs?

They won't. At least not at first. This is why I've responded to assertions that "it only takes one team to be high on Sam" to get a high pick with my counter that in this situation it would take two. Interested teams will be looking at Sam like a reclaimation at reclaimation prices. JD can't afford to bluff an offer he doesn't have. If he takes a QB he needs to capture whatever value he can for Darnold -- he doesn't really have the option of telling other teams "we decided to hang onto Sam" if his bluff is called. If he bluffs a non-existent offer then caves and accepts a lower one, other GMs will know he does not negotiate in good faith which hurts him at the table going forward. It's a bad move.

[T0mShane]

Broncos fans are having this same conversation about Drew Lock FYI. 

[FidelioJet]

I think he’s moving on from Sam and probably has to. He couldn’t survive keeping Sam and failing.   Just for that reason alone, Sam is going.

With that said, they will absolutely get a 2nd or 3rd (probably a 2nd)

What you guys don’t want to accept for some reason is the

1) Jets are a laughing stock around the league

2) If 100% healthy, this was Ihe least talented offense in the NFL.  Add in the plethora of injuries and poor coaching and no one could have succeeded in this offense this year

3) Tannehill and Flacco 

and Most importantly 

4) QB’s you find in the 2nd or 3rd round are crap shoots at best.  So if you’re going to take a shot - they will ask themselves what’s more likely to work out....fixing Sam or this 2nd or 3rd round guy....The conclusion many will come to, based on everything above,  is there’s a better chance to fix Sam.  So much more upside.

[rangerous]

6 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

Under this logic the Steelers should have panicked about why the Jets were offering Le’Veon Bell $13M and tied to keep him.

It’s not the same because I think only the jets pursued bell in earnest.  That may be a wrong observation but we’ve seen Mac bid against himself when acquiring players and ultimately overpay.

[Jetster]

7 hours ago, Defense Wins Championships said:

Sam was the 47th out of 50th rated QB this year. He stinks. 

No GM will offer a 2nd round pick for him lol when he'll be released next off-season before his 5th year option and can be had without WASTING valuable draft picks. 

He'll go for a 5th. At best a 4th if JD hits the lottery. 

This is complete horsesh*t just based on what we've seen in this league. With Sam heading into his 4th season, we, as in THE JETS are still completely in a rebuild so starting over this year with a new QB (we're probably keeping him if we didn't have the 2nd pick in the draft), but to teams like the Saints, Niners, Indy (teams built to win) he's a 3 year veteran that can step right on the field for them. All 3 of those teams are at the top of the league in rushing. All 3 have much better Olines that the Jets right now. All 3 have way better defenses than Sam has played for, all 3 have far superior coaches with systems in place for at least 2 years. 

Everything will be new again for the Jets. New coaches, new systems that EVERYONE has to learn. These other teams WRs, TEs, RBs, Oline, already know their assignments, Sam just needs to learn the plays. 

If Sam Darnold IS TRADED, I'll bet anyone on this sight it won't be less than a 3rd & most likely a 2nd. But this 5th or 6th talk? No f*cking way, you'd be better off keeping him for 9 million. 

[Sonny Werblin]

8 hours ago, AFJF said:

Mentioned this on the JN podcast the other day and wanted to pitch it to the board.  Through several tweets from prominent insiders, here are a few things I've seen in terms of predicting what the Jets might be able to get for Sam.

Rap sheets said they an probably get a second-round pick

Breer said they should be able to get a 2 and a 3.

Matt Miller (yes, I realize he's not in the same league as Rap and Breer) said to expect at least 10 teams to bid on him.

 

If it ends up being 10 teams (or even in that ballpark), you have to figure one or two of them will be respected franchises, like the Saints for instance.

 

So if you're Joe Douglas, and you need a quarterback, does the fact that there is so much interest in Sam make you stop and wonder what it is they see in him that you don't?  I mean, if Sean Payton calls and says "Drew is retiring, so we'll give you one or two premium picks for him", doesn't that make you wonder why you're getting rid of him?  

I think they move on from Sam and I understand why, but if everyone who says "he sucks" and "he's trash" were correct, there wouldn't be anyone willing to give up anything for him.  But if it's an offer like some are predicting....

 

Herein lies the problem with the Jets placing a higher value on keeping Sam solely because other teams are interested in him -- The Jets have had Sam for 3 years and know him way better than these other teams. So, if the Jets can not trust that their own evaluation of Sam is better than other teams', there is a huge problem with the Jets self-scouting.

Also, it's not like Sean Payton will say, "we're gonna offer a two premium picks because we think Sam's main problem is blankity blank and can be fixed if we just work on his yada yada yada." The fact is whatever another team sees in Sam that they think is fixable will not be disclosed in trade talks and it may very well be something the Jets are aware of and have not been able to fix. In reality, it may not be fixable. And even if it is fixable, if it is not fixable by the Jets what does it matter?

So, the Jets have to place their own value on Sam, based on what they know about the player having had him for 3 years. This value should not be altered simply because other teams that know him not as well value him higher. IMO, if the Jets get offered 2 premium picks, Sam will be traded.

[bitonti]

1 hour ago, jgb said:

Absolutely 100% could be the case. Would've been really interesting had Jets landed #1. I still think if we are handicapping it, there's a 1-8 chance or so we draft Fields. But it absolutely depends on JD's and the new HC's opinion of Fields. In any case it's really difficult to see Wilson going #2 overall in any scenario.

I understand fields at 2. Zach wilson is closer to the top of Rd 2 than 2 overall