Will a one-year gamble on Sam Darnold be worth the risk?

[Jet Nut]

Will a one-year gamble on Sam Darnold be worth the risk?

The NY Jets are not going to pick up Sam Darnold‘s fifth-year option. General manager Joe Douglas has until May to officially make that decision, but it’s a given that he won’t. The question is, will Sam Darnold still be a member of the NY Jets by then?

The cost of picking up Darnold’s fifth-year option would be in the neighborhood of $25 million for the 2022 season. Darnold is under contract with the team in 2021 and is slated to make $9.7 million in what would be the last year of his rookie deal.

Not only will the Jets not pick up the fifth-year option, but any team that trades for Sam Darnold won’t either. The truth is that. For better or for worse, Darnold has become a reclamation project. Darnold will be playing on a one-year prove-it deal, no matter where he plays in 2021.

If the Jets decide to keep Darnold, they will effectively be putting him on the hot seat.

In effect, the Jets will be giving Darnold one last chance to prove that he is worthy of being a franchise quarterback.

Recent reports suggest that the Jets could be leaning in that direction for the 2021 season. The team has plenty of options to consider before the 2021 NFL Draft in April. Let’s take an in-depth look at what they are.

Trade options for Sam Darnold and the NY Jets

In the “it takes two to tango” department, trading Sam Darnold and getting fair value in return will not be easy.

There are rumors or hopes that the return for Darnold could be a combination of draft picks, with a second-round pick as a possibility. The reality is that any team that does give up those types of resources will be doing so with the idea of Darnold being their starter in 2021.

The assumption is that a team would be willing to do that for Darnold. That’s quite a leap of faith. It’s a risky proposition for any NFL team to make. A franchise would be taking a one year flyer at $9 million on a quarterback who isn’t the sure thing he was projected to be back in 2018.

In 2019, the Miami Dolphins tried it. They traded a second and fifth-round pick to the Arizona Cardinals for former first-round pick Josh Rosen. A year later, Rosen was third on the team’s depth chart and was subsequently released.

The risk provided no reward for Miami.

Any team that trades for Darnold is taking the same risk that the Jets would be if they kept him. Back in 2018, many teams graded Darnold as one of the top-rated quarterbacks in that class.

So it’s possible that one of those teams, like perhaps the Denver Broncos, who were reportedly very high on Darnold three years ago, decides to take the gamble on Sam. However, Darnold’s body of work may not inspire teams like Denver to take the leap of faith.

The dream scenario for the NY Jets

Newly-hired Jets head coach Robert Saleh is expected to entrust his offense over to Mike LaFleur. The now-former passing game coordinator for the San Francisco 49ers brings with him a system that, on paper, looks like it matches up well with Darnold’s skillset.

While Darnold has had his fair share of struggles passing from the pocket, his best plays with the Jets in his first three seasons in the league have come from throwing on the move. Something that is a staple of the Shanahan system that LaFleur would bring over to the Jets.

It’s a similar system that Darnold showed flashes of brilliance under Jeremy Bates in his rookie season. Bates is also from the Shanahan coaching tree, and that offense is very similar to the one LaFleur will employ with Gang Green.

Sam Darnold is a fan favorite and well-liked by the NY Jets’ fanbase. Even his harshest detractors would love to see the day where Darnold succeeds. A scenario where Darnold lives up to his lofty billing for New York would satisfy many.

It would also put the team in a great position to get better in a hurry, instead of using significant resources and patience to develop an entirely new quarterback. The Jets can use their draft capital to shore up other significant areas of need on the roster.

The dream scenario for the Jets would be Sam Darnold becoming the star everyone expected. The hardest thing for an NFL franchise to accomplish is finding a true franchise quarterback, someone who can carry your team for years to come and one that will make you a perennial contender.

The Jets have been in what seems like a never-ending search for a quarterback like that.

Darnold finally becoming that type of player would be a great story, and it would save the Jets from having to start all over again with an unknown at the quarterback position.

The NY Jets could hedge their bets on Sam Darnold

It’s hard to imagine an outcome that sees the Jets cut Darnold outright. It would be a bittersweet end to something that showed so much promise at the outset. Drafting a quarterback with the second overall pick would seal the deal if Joe Douglas finds no takers for Darnold.

The Arizona Cardinals drafted Kyler Murray and quickly moved Josh Rosen, their former franchise QB. The Cincinnati Bengals eliminated any potential hurdles for rookie Joe Burrow to climb by cutting ties with veteran quarterback Andy Dalton.

So if the Jets draft a Justin Fields or Zach Wilson at No. 2, it’s almost a given that Sam Darnold will be gone. The question is, will Joe Douglas be able to trade Darnold for value?

Trading Darnold away for anything less than a third-round pick would seem like a crime was committed against the franchise and its fanbase. It’s a harsh reality that would almost certainly come to fruition if the Jets had very little cap room and no trade partners come April/May.

However, the Jets do have enough cap room to entertain keeping Sam Darnold, even if they draft a quarterback, particularly if the Jets’ quarterback is not one that is selected with the second overall pick.

The scenario that hasn’t been discussed on a grand scale of late is the possibility of the Jets passing on drafting a quarterback at two but still taking one with one of their top selections in the 2021 NFL Draft.

In this unlikely scenario, the Jets would give Sam Darnold a chance to revitalize his career while at the same time drafting a potential successor. It’s not an entertaining possibility to explore or even endure.

The Philadelphia Eagles experimented with a similar strategy that produced mixed results this past season when they drafted Jalen Hurts in the second round.

The Eagles did it out as insurance for a player in Carson Wentz, whose biggest Achilles heel before 2020 was his inability to stay healthy. Sam Darnold has had similar issues throughout his career.

Beyond the irregular case of mononucleosis that forced Darnold to miss games in 2019, Darnold has struggled to stay healthy and on the field in his rookie year and this past season. Part of being a franchise quarterback is not only performance but availability.

Darnold has been a popular fixture on injury reports throughout his brief career, often, missing practices during game weeks. A less-than-ideal situation for offenses to have success in.

The Jets will not only be banking on Darnold’s play improving significantly in 2021, but they will be gambling on his ability to stay healthy for an entire season. If the Jets bet on Darnold, they might decide to cover themselves, just in case he can’t do either.

Final Summary

Given the team’s recent hire of Robert Saleh, there is new hope for the franchise that hasn’t existed for a long time.

The fact that Joe Douglas chose Saleh despite never working with him has given the entire fanbase faith that their general manager will make the right decision regarding the team’s future. And in this case, nothing ties more into the team’s future than the decision made at quarterback.

Ultimately, whether or not the Jets retain Darnold will come down to how the team’s front office and new staff feel about him moving forward. And most importantly, how they feel about the quarterbacks in this year’s upcoming draft class.

There is a lot of time between now and then for Douglas and his staff to make that decision. Making the wrong call on Darnold could set the franchise back if he doesn’t produce in 2021.

The combination of Darnold failing and bypassing the chance to draft a franchise quarterback in the 2021 NFL Draft would put the Jets back to square one, where they’d be starting all over again in 2022, in their never-ending search for a franchise quarterback.

The ultimate question moving forward is do Douglas, Saleh, and the franchise decide to press pause on that search? And by doing so, are they willing to gamble that they already have what they need in Sam Darnold?

The interesting thing is that the answer to that ultimate question would be crystal clear if Darnold hadn’t beaten two playoff teams in Los Angeles and Cleveland to end the 2020 season. The choice for the Jets in the draft would’ve been made for them.

 

 

 

 

[predator_05]

You have to see how he looks with a new coaching staff. 

Otherwise, we could live to regret letting him go. In the event that he moves to another team and lights it up. Not that unlikely, if you think about it. 

[LIJetsFan]

Hm, he just had to add this part, did he?  Oh how I love being reminded.  

"the answer to that ultimate question would be crystal clear if Darnold hadn’t beaten two playoff teams in Los Angeles and Cleveland to end the 2020 season." 

[bitonti]

this is a good article but I question how the Jets not solving the QB problem in year 1 of Saleh is some kind of giant failure. The offense is so gutted, so stripped to the bones, there's not many QB's who could succeed in year 1 of this reset or whatever we want to call it. It's not like the Super Bowl window is ready just waiting for a QB to open it. They need to build from the ground up, then take a QB when that person won't drown. To do otherwise is Sam Darnold part II 

the dude is 23 and basically done... that could be Justin Fields in 3 years

 

[heymangold]

Think of it this way.  Do you think Sam can lead this team to a 10-6, 11-5 record?  Do you think he can make the playoffs?  I personally don’t.  I feel like he’d leave the team like a 6-10, 7-9 at best, putting us around 15 or so for draft pick purposes.  That isn’t going to get us a top end QB in 2022.

[Charlie Brown]

Great article.  
 

The key for me is you can draft a QB later in if you are not sold with Fields or Wilson at 2 but you may even feel better with a QB later in the draft.  You could also bring in a vet like Winston and see what happens or even do all of the above   

The key for me is that there appears to be a directional plan for the Jets. They are no longer just relying on the cult of the coach or the player but now seem to recognize the necessity of having a plan for the development of both.  
 

For me it is in JD I trust. This is the first time since Parcells was here that I felt that the Jets know what they are truly doing. 

[Columbia Jet Fan]

1 minute ago, bitonti said:

this is a good article but I question how the Jets not solving the QB problem in year 1 of Saleh is some kind of giant failure. The offense is so gutted, so stripped to the bones, there's not many QB's who could succeed in year 1 of this reset or whatever we want to call it. It's not like the Super Bowl window is ready just waiting for a QB to open it. They need to build from the ground up, then take a QB when that person won't drown. To do otherwise is Sam Darnold part II 

the dude is 23 and basically done... that could be Justin Fields in 3 years

 

As the offseason goes along, I'm starting to agree with this sentiment through no additional faith/belief that Darnold is the guy. UNLESS JD/Saleh think Fields/Wilson are completely unique prospects you can't pass up on, I think I'd rather trade back and get a haul of picks and hopefully develop a meaningful infrastructure that can remain competitive for years. The downside is you may end up being the Colts, but I'd rather be the Colts than the Texans at this point. Both paths have examples of success or failure, but this team needs a foundation more than ever, and usually a good investment means sacrificing the short term (hope Fields/Wilson are goats) for the long term (a capable roster that can compete year in and year out). 

That being said if you don't get the haul of picks for #2 I'm throwing Sam to the curb and drafting Wilson/Fields... but I believe they will. 

[More Cowbell]

16 minutes ago, LIJetsFan said:

Hm, he just had to add this part, did he?  Oh how I love being reminded.  

"the answer to that ultimate question would be crystal clear if Darnold hadn’t beaten two playoff teams in Los Angeles and Cleveland to end the 2020 season." 

Meh,

The Rams O didn't  show up and they played a Cleveland team with no WR's. I don't  feel that is an excuse for them to lose because the Jets are that bad but it wasn't  like either of them looked lime playoff teams when we played them. 

Honestly, I just don't  see the Jets moving forward with Sam with the options they have at QB in front of them. I really don't  want to kill the cap and trade away all the draft capital we have and I don't  think JD will go that route, making the big splash trade. JD is trying to build a team, not spend everything g he built up on one player. The only way I woukd take Watson is if we keep our picks.they can have Seattle's. Trading Adams for Watson works for me but much rather reset the clock with Fields. If JD doesn't  like a QB in the draft, I really  see him trading down. 

[predator_05]

4 minutes ago, heymangold said:

Think of it this way.  Do you think Sam can lead this team to a 10-6, 11-5 record?  Do you think he can make the playoffs?  I personally don’t.  I feel like he’d leave the team like a 6-10, 7-9 at best, putting us around 15 or so for draft pick purposes.  That isn’t going to get us a top end QB in 2022.

7-9 is a massive improvement on 2-14. 

If Darnold shows improvement, and the team is a few close losses away from 9-7...the team will have a strong season to build on. 

[oatmeal]

All this flirting NYJ fans and media are doing with other QBs since the Lawrence stuff, you cannot tell me Darnolds confidence isn’t shattered. 
 

On top of that Darnold fans you’d think if the Jets were really serious about bringing Darnold back  they would at least step out in front of all this QB controversy for Sams sake.

 

Sams done as a NYJ 

[jgb]

Good article. The one option left off in the “hedge” section is acquire a Trubisky/Minshew type as that hedge rather than draft a QB later in the draft.

[oatmeal]

34 minutes ago, predator_05 said:

You have to see how he looks with a new coaching staff. 

Otherwise, we could live to regret letting him go. In the event that he moves to another team and lights it up. Not that unlikely, if you think about it. 

Well according to this logic he’s proven he cannot elevate the talent around him then, so he isn’t a franchise Qb.

[kelly]

26 minutes ago, predator_05 said:

You have to see how he looks with a new coaching staff. 

Otherwise, we could live to regret letting him go. In the event that he moves to another team and lights it up. Not that unlikely, if you think about it. 

?  if i may,.. it's happened at Least once before..

[bitonti]

21 minutes ago, Columbia Jet Fan said:

That being said if you don't get the haul of picks for #2 I'm throwing Sam to the curb and drafting Wilson/Fields... but I believe they will. 

if they don't get the haul they need to take the best player available 

the evaluation of Fields/Wilson and whether they are worth 2 is a separate question to whether Sam is the solution or not

in other words they shouldn't overdraft Fields or Wilson out of QB desperation. That's how we ended up with Darnold in the first place

the Jets have the 23 pick they could use that and other capital to get to 15 if/when one of these guys fall. That's more likely than Wilson/Fields both going top 5. 

these are like two different discussions 1) what players is worth 2 and 2) who will be the QB next year 

[Biggs]

The article makes one huge mistake.  The only way to gauge fair value is to see what he’s actually worth in trade.  If you believe you’re getting more than it’s worth to keep him you trade him.  
 

There is a distinct possibility he has no trade value and he’s worth less than a guaranteed roster spot.  See Rosen as an example.  
 

He’s value is simple what we can get for him.  If it’s less than we paid it’s simple unrecoverable sunk coast.  Keeping him has potential upside but it also comes with the risk of additional sunk coast that may set back our program for another year.  
 

I would argue the risk/reward is highly skewed toward risk in keeping him.  Cut your losses don’t compound them. 

[Trotter]

I am not pro or against Sam. Quite honestly I do not care who the QB is as long as they can help us win games and get us ultimately to be successful and yes that is a SB.

The thing with Sam though that we can't forget is look at his coaching the past two years - he arguably had the worst coaching staff in the history of the NFL to grow under at the age of 22 and 23. Most Qb's would fail miserably in those circumstances.

Sam did show flashes his first year and that wasn't exactly great coaching either

Tough decision - but I truly feel bad for him and part of me thinks he can be successful and that could still be here. 

[docdhc]

I thought they could pick up his fifth year option but still cut him if he sucks in the fourth year. It’s not guaranteed until the beginning of fifth year I thought. 

[section314]

28 minutes ago, oatmeal said:

All this flirting NYJ fans and media are doing with other QBs since the Lawrence stuff, you cannot tell me Darnolds confidence isn’t shattered. 
 

On top of that Darnold fans you’d think if the Jets were really serious about bringing Darnold back  they would at least step out in front of all this QB controversy for Sams sake.

 

Sams done as a NYJ 

Two things.....1) privately, they may have already told him where he stands, which probably happened. 2) protect the value of the #2 pick by letting all the speculation go wild.

[ScarletKnight89]

Why do people always act like drafting a new QB and "starting all over again" means you can't win sooner than later? If you draft the right QB it doesn't take him 3-4 years to develop into a good player. You usually start seeing the results immediately. Especially when you compare him to a QB who has struggled over his first 3 years to show any type of consistency. 

Starting all over again is the only realistic option to make when the QB you have has not shown you he is the answer. 

[Joe W. Namath]

Darnold has 0 chance of ever taking a snap for the jets again.  We have smart people running this organization now.

He will be traded for a 2nd and 4th.

[oatmeal]

1 minute ago, section314 said:

Two things.....1) privately, they may have already told him where he stands, which probably happened. 2) protect the value of the #2 pick by letting all the speculation go wild.

This is a great point honestly but my thing is how can they reasonably tell Sam his status without knowing what the offers they will get for Sam vs the #2 pick? What if the draft process rolls along and they fall in love with a Qb? With if Watson with his no trade clause wants to force himself exclusively to the NYJ?

It’s so many different possible outcomes all the NYJ could responsibly do is tell him “we are evaluating things” or something along those lines. Even if they tell him he’s the guy next year I believe Darnold can see all the options the jets have available read the writing on the wall.

[peekskill68]

20 minutes ago, Biggs said:

The article makes one huge mistake.  The only way to gauge fair value is to see what he’s actually worth in trade.  If you believe you’re getting more than it’s worth to keep him you trade him.  
 

There is a distinct possibility he has no trade value and he’s worth less than a guaranteed roster spot.  See Rosen as an example.  
 

He’s value is simple what we can get for him.  If it’s less than we paid it’s simple unrecoverable sunk coast.  Keeping him has potential upside but it also comes with the risk of additional sunk coast that may set back our program for another year.  
 

I would argue the risk/reward is highly skewed toward risk in keeping him.  Cut your losses don’t compound them. 

It's funny. I did a similar analysis to you and came up with a totally different conclusion.  No disagreement about the sunk cost. But in my mind the risk/reward is skewed highly toward keeping Sam in Year 4. IF (and I realize it's a big IF) Saleh and LaFleur can salvage Sam, the upside benefit of being able to build the team better and faster with all the additional picks is massive.  If he bombs, then you can still fix the QB spot in 2022 for probably a similar cost to what you are facing now in acquiring Watson

[kelly]

4 minutes ago, Joe W. Namath said:

Darnold has 0 chance of ever taking a snap for the jets again.  We have smart people running this organization now.

He will be traded for a 2nd and 4th.

.. you Layin'  odds ?   ?

[shawn306]

Absolutely. There will be QB’s next year or if Darnold bombs you trade for a vet. If you want a QB you trade for Watson

[Greensleeves]

57 minutes ago, bitonti said:

this is a good article but I question how the Jets not solving the QB problem in year 1 of Saleh is some kind of giant failure. The offense is so gutted, so stripped to the bones, there's not many QB's who could succeed in year 1 of this reset or whatever we want to call it. It's not like the Super Bowl window is ready just waiting for a QB to open it. They need to build from the ground up, then take a QB when that person won't drown. To do otherwise is Sam Darnold part II 

the dude is 23 and basically done... that could be Justin Fields in 3 years

 

The offense doesn't need to be gutted IMO. We have some nice pieces in place in Becton, Mims, Crowder. The O-line played well at the end of the year and I think that we just need the interior of the line to get better. If we add Thuney and draft a center in FA - move McGovern to guard and then sign a #1 receiver in FA, the QB will have plenty to be successful. We can even draft a top running back in the 3rd or 4th round. I think it's easy to say the roster is so bad, but I think the coaching was so inept it made it seem worse than it really is.

[Biggs]

2 minutes ago, peekskill68 said:

It's funny. I did a similar analysis to you and came up with a totally different conclusion.  No disagreement about the sunk cost. But in my mind the risk/reward is skewed highly toward keeping Sam in Year 4. IF (and I realize it's a big IF) Saleh and LaFleur can salvage Sam, the upside benefit of being able to build the team better and faster with all the additional picks is massive.  If he bombs, then you can still fix the QB spot in 2022 for probably a similar cost to what you are facing now in acquiring Watson

I'm guessing Brady and Brees are gone by the end of next year.  That reduces the elite available QB's by two.  The guys left that might be available in FA:

Stafford, Garappolo, Cousins, Maybe Dak.  I'm guessing if we have an opportunity to sign one in FA we still give up a comp pick?  

When you talk about a salvage operation that implies you're looking for scrap value.  I don't believe a QB of Watson's talent, proven elite status and age will be available next year.  

I also think the idea that Sam is broken and can be fixed is highly suspect.  He's not broken, he simply is playing at a level that is a little beyond him.  That's not a knock on Sam.  Most really good college players don't step up and become elite NFL QB's.  They aren't broken they just aren't NFL caliber. 

[jetsons]

Will a one-year gamble on Sam Darnold be worth the risk?

 Yes

[LIJetsFan]

1 hour ago, bitonti said:

this is a good article but I question how the Jets not solving the QB problem in year 1 of Saleh is some kind of giant failure. The offense is so gutted, so stripped to the bones, there's not many QB's who could succeed in year 1 of this reset or whatever we want to call it. It's not like the Super Bowl window is ready just waiting for a QB to open it. They need to build from the ground up, then take a QB when that person won't drown. To do otherwise is Sam Darnold part II 

the dude is 23 and basically done... that could be Justin Fields in 3 years

 

holy crap, I agree with bit  

[bitonti]

1 hour ago, Greensleeves said:

The offense doesn't need to be gutted IMO. We have some nice pieces in place in Becton, Mims, Crowder. The O-line played well at the end of the year and I think that we just need the interior of the line to get better. If we add Thuney and draft a center in FA - move McGovern to guard and then sign a #1 receiver in FA, the QB will have plenty to be successful. We can even draft a top running back in the 3rd or 4th round. I think it's easy to say the roster is so bad, but I think the coaching was so inept it made it seem worse than it really is.

Becton, crowder and McGovern are the three starters on offense. Mims played half a season. 3.5 starters on offense maybe 4. That's less than half a team. 

[Jetsfan80]

2 hours ago, predator_05 said:

You have to see how he looks with a new coaching staff. 

Otherwise, we could live to regret letting him go. In the event that he moves to another team and lights it up. Not that unlikely, if you think about it. 

Extremely unlikely, actually.  

[Augustiniak]

1 hour ago, peekskill68 said:

It's funny. I did a similar analysis to you and came up with a totally different conclusion.  No disagreement about the sunk cost. But in my mind the risk/reward is skewed highly toward keeping Sam in Year 4. IF (and I realize it's a big IF) Saleh and LaFleur can salvage Sam, the upside benefit of being able to build the team better and faster with all the additional picks is massive.  If he bombs, then you can still fix the QB spot in 2022 for probably a similar cost to what you are facing now in acquiring Watson

this is true, with the one flaw being if they truly believe that zach wilson would be a star in their new offense and they ignore it and trade the pick away, then darnold continues to suck.  then it's shame on them.

[Paradis]

2 hours ago, bitonti said:

this is a good article but I question how the Jets not solving the QB problem in year 1 of Saleh is some kind of giant failure.

 

And completely fabricated narrative.

I don't think JD and Saleh are under ANY pressure to solve the QB issues in 2021. They could watch Sam tread water and sink, and have zero impact - zero - on their jobs and plan. I believe their agenda is "how do we get our roster from point A to point B...so that QBs can succeed"

[Paradis]

1 hour ago, Joe W. Namath said:

Darnold has 0 chance of ever taking a snap for the jets again.  We have smart people running this organization now.

He will be traded for a 2nd and 4th.

I'll take that bet. I'll put $50 on it... that's just my belief that they're not going to force the QB situation. They're more concerned with the 5537 holes in our roster at the moment. 

[varjet]

• On one hand, any team that trades for Darnold, even a 7th round pick, is giving the Jets value, because not only are the Jets getting priority rights to another player, but they are assuming the guaranteed salary portion of his contract.  The article is incorrect-Sam will not be paid $9mm-that is his cap value.  His guaranteed salary is $4.6mm.  Not peanuts, and that is what the Jets can save if they get someone to trade for Sam.  that is half a FA starter.
• If the Jets like a QB at 2, they obviously should take him, and can even keep Sam to start while the QB prepares.  This team is not ready to compete in 2021.  I don't see the point of paying a QB top dollar to play for this team.  One could even argue that 2 should either be Sewell or trade down for more picks.  Next year the Jets can sign a FA QB or use their 2 first round draft picks (or more, depending on the trade down) to trade up next year. 
• But this will be an interesting dilemma on Jets Drive.  The Johnsons would love to use their draft picks to trade for a marquee QB-sell tickets, commercials, parking, PSLs, etc.   Douglas and Saleh with their backgrounds and long-term contracts will want to build the team from the ground up.  They don't need a $30+mm QB to fail behind a weak team, have the Jets not make the playoffs with no hope for later in the decade.   That will get Douglas and Saleh fired/not extended.  

[Butterfield]

Depends on the alternatives.