Pauline: Jets leaning towards Zach Wilson

[slimjasi]

2 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

I'm sorry, I really don't mean to be a contrarian here. 

but he missed three games in three years as a starter with a thumb injury (which has NOTHING to do with his size or frame, just bad luck)

The shoulder surgery was mostly an over use thing, he played the entire season, got the surgery after his freshman year and didn't miss a game due to it.  Moreover, it's the same surgery Trevor Lawrence just got.

Certainly I can understand the concerns - I certainly hope JD has concerns and works through them.  I have to believe JD will understand the nature of those shoulder surgeries, how if affects him long term, risk of injuring it etc.

but it is football and guys get hurt, it's not like he's been on the sidelines a lot.  He started for 3 years and missed 3 games his Sophomore year.  That's it.

There's real reason to be high on this kid, I just hope you can come around to be exited on draft night!

It's more the fact that he has had multiple surgeries before playing an NFL game. I just think surgeries have a way of compounding. Some guys need surgery after surgery, others don't. 

I'm definitely excited by his potential. 

[FidelioJet]

7 minutes ago, Warfish said:

I'll be quite honest with you, I don't think he's either of those numbers.

Listen, it should be enough for his fans to be happy he's the likely Jets choice.  It shouldn't be needed to try and convince doubters.

Wilson himself either will or won't do that when he steps on an NFL field.

My expectations of a starting NFL QB have not changed:  65%+, 4,000 Passing Yards+, 2:1 TD:INT Ratio at least.

If Wilson provides that, great.  I'll enjoy my tasty fried Crow sandwich.

If not...

I guess I can't argue against you not believing facts.

Isn't the reason we're all on this site is to discuss the Jets.  To have opinions, to share what we know?  our views?

Why are you on JN if it's not to express your opinion and view others?

 

 

[derp]

40 minutes ago, Paradis said:

Making a splash hire like Saleh bought JD some time to do things the right way — and we will never be in a better position to build through the draft then we are now. 

there’s a real case to be made that trading back and coming out of the first rnd with Pitts AND Waddle in addition to having THREE 1st rnd picks in 2022 is more than worth gambling on Darnold in 2021. 

This was always going to be about kick off in September 2022. 

A thousand times this.

[FidelioJet]

4 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

It's more the fact that he has had multiple surgeries before playing an NFL game. I just think surgeries have a way of compounding. Some guys need surgery after surgery, others don't. 

I'm definitely excited by his potential. 

I get that...and that's where i hope our GM and team make sure they do their research.. Make sure they're comfortable with the shoulders and him as a person.

Did you know Justin Fields had surgery on his hand in High School? https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/11/sports/ncaafootball/justin-fields-ohio-state.html and injured his ribs in college?vNo one is calling him injury prone. 

I just think there are a lot of people out to get Wilson for some reason.  Not exactly sure why but I think mostly to do with the way he looks.

[EM31]

This is basically expected and may even have the virtue of being true.

If you are looking to trade the pick the best way to get other teams interested enough or worried enough to make the trade is to create concern that the player they covet might be gone.  Hence the declared interest in BOTH of these players.

I tend to think it is not true or not the entire truth and that the Jets simply want this story to be out there.  The reason is that if it is true then there really is no reason to show your hand in advance at all  Just make the damned pick you want and be done with it.

JD is not an idiot and he would know that so this is really an unplanned leak of their real thinking by someone other than the GM or it is noise put out there because it benefits the Jets position.  I think it is the latter.

[Paradis]

33 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

I get what you are saying but I don't entirely buy it. The bolded is what everyone said last year about September 2021. Douglas is 9-32 as an NFL GM. Obviously, he has had only one draft and one FA period so far, so he is just getting started. But the media turns on you quickly in today's world. If the Jets don't make considerable progress in 2021, JD will immediately be on the hot seat. The pressure will be increased by tenfold if Darnold sucks again and any of the QBs he passed on have any modicum of  early success. 

If JD believes that the strongest team the Jets can field going forward comes from keeping Sam at QB + acquiring a bunch of draft capital by trading out of #2, then so be it. But he better have a legit backup plan at QB (Winston?), because if Sam sh*ts the bed again and we start the season 0 for September again next year, things are going to get extremely ugly extremely quickly. 

What's not to buy? If your salary is 7 figures and you're responsible for managing an entire Program - you have look at stability and development. Now, that doesn't mean if the team catches fire in 2021 - that you don't ride the lightning - but you can't expect it. We have a CFL roster at the moment.

I'm not one to hand out freebees, but Joe gets one for the Gase era. It is what it was. He's lucky to get a reset with Saleh... I have to imagine he's got agenda for what he wants to accomplish in 2021 and then carry that over to the 2022 offseason - because we definitely 2 offseason to rebuild this thing. 

[JetPotato]

42 minutes ago, Wonderboy said:

Say that to his face. I dare you.

LOL

Your terrible idea has nothing to do with Penei Sewell. It's just a terrible idea on several levels.

[long time suffering Jets f]

4 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

 

I just think there are a lot of people out to get Wilson for some reason.  Not exactly sure why but I think mostly to do with the way he looks.

To me it’s his small frame. I’m concerned if he can hold up in the NFL. If Wilson had a larger frame like some of the other QB prospects, he would be far and away the best QB coming out of the draft. Then again look at today’s small frame throwers like Rodgers and Brees. Bottom line is it’s all a crapshoot when it comes to the draft.

[slimjasi]

15 minutes ago, Paradis said:

What's not to buy? If your salary is 7 figures and you're responsible for managing an entire Program - you have look at stability and development. Now, that doesn't mean if the team catches fire in 2021 - that you don't ride the lightning - but you can't expect it. We have a CFL roster at the moment.

I'm not one to hand out freebees, but Joe gets one for the Gase era. It is what it was. He's lucky to get a reset with Saleh... I have to imagine he's got agenda for what he wants to accomplish in 2021 and then carry that over to the 2022 offseason - because we definitely 2 offseason to rebuild this thing. 

I'm saying that bringing Sam back is a major risk for Douglas because he will be judged extremely harshly if Sam still sucks next year and the team struggles.  If you draft a rookie, you naturally buy yourself more time to get things pointed up. Douglas has already been the GM for one disastrous (historically inept) season. You don't get too many of those, regardless of whose fault it is. "Freebees" don't really exist. 

Also, if you really think the Jets currently have a "CFL roster at the moment," then drafting the rookie is a no-brainer. You get 2-3 years to make incremental progress and let the guy grow into the position. Why would you bring back an underachieving reclamation project 4th year starter at QB on a CFL roster?   

[varjet]

12 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Also, if you really think the Jets currently have a "CFL roster at the moment," then drafting the rookie is a no-brainer. You get 2-3 years to make incremental progress and let the guy grow into the position. Why would you bring back an underachieving reclamation project 4th year starter at QB on a CFL roster?   

If the Jets pass on Wilson and he turns out better than Darnold, JD is toast.

If the Jets draft Wilson and he gets hurt, I think JD tried.  

Trading 3 additional picks for Darnold helped get Mac fired.  The Jets can't trade picks for Watson and ever be good.  The roster is too bad.

So they Jets could try trading down a few spots (not more than a few) and try to get Fields or Lance (and even more picks), and I think people would be fair if that move did not work out.

But paying big money to a QB who is not good will destroy a GM, as will giving up all of your draft picks.

To me the biggest question is whether you keep Darnold for insurance or let him go.  I am inclined to keep him.  

[Augustiniak]

20 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

I'm saying that bringing Sam back is a major risk for Douglas because he will be judged extremely harshly if Sam still sucks next year and the team struggles.  If you draft a rookie, you naturally buy yourself more time to get things pointed up. Douglas has already been the GM for one disastrous (historically inept) season. You don't get too many of those, regardless of whose fault it is. "Freebees" don't really exist. 

 

douglas will be on the hot seat by week 4 this season if he trades back, darnold sucks and wilson is good right away.  no more free passes for douglas.

[Paradis]

29 minutes ago, varjet said:

If the Jets pass on Wilson and he turns out better than Darnold, JD is toast.

I 

 

23 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

douglas will be on the hot seat by week 4 this season if he trades back, darnold sucks and wilson is good right away.  

ahhh no. not true. Lots of GMs with jobs right now passed on Watson and Mahomes. 

If JD passes on Wilson it's because he has a different agenda altogether and you let him to see it through. You'd have to have a brain injury to damn him 4 weeks into his rebuild plan. Passing Wilson for Trey Lance.... well that's a different story. 

[Jet Nut]

4 hours ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

He had the Jets taking Wills over Becton in his final mock last year. 

I highly doubt he is plugged into the Joe Douglas regime. 

Saying Jets leaning towards Wilson is just a really good educated guess. Nothing more, nothing less.

And how many different players did have going at 11 before he got to Becton?

 

[Paradis]

47 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

I'm saying that bringing Sam back is a major risk for Douglas because he will be judged extremely harshly if Sam still sucks next year and the team struggles.  If you draft a rookie, you naturally buy yourself more time to get things pointed up. Douglas has already been the GM for one disastrous (historically inept) season. You don't get too many of those, regardless of whose fault it is. "Freebees" don't really exist. 

Also, if you really think the Jets currently have a "CFL roster at the moment," then drafting the rookie is a no-brainer. You get 2-3 years to make incremental progress and let the guy grow into the position. Why would you bring back an underachieving reclamation project 4th year starter at QB on a CFL roster?   

You're looking at this purely from the QB lense.... not a GM and his 53 spectacles. 

Drafting a Rookie QB onto a CFL roster comes with it's own challenges. Look what it did to Sam.

consider this--

• when is it best to start the clock on your 4 year window for a rookie QB contract. What development and use is there to having a rookie on your 2021 with an Oline in flux, rookie playmakers and a defense that will likely ask him to throw up 21+ pts weekly.
• Are you setting up the rookie for success in measurably better way by getting Pitts and Waddle this year in addition to other pieces in the trenches - then asking him the rookie to do that much with that much less this year.

It's not all about Confidence in Sam.

[Warfish]

1 hour ago, FidelioJet said:

I guess I can't argue against you not believing facts.

Did you measure him?  Or are you taking someone's word on it?

I'm telling you point blank, players, teams and leagues fudge some numbers.  It's in Wilsons interest to have his height and weight be as tall and high as he can muster, for obvious reasons.

I mean really, did you really think some of those massive 340 pound O-linemen really weighted "280", lol. 

1 hour ago, FidelioJet said:

Isn't the reason we're all on this site is to discuss the Jets.  To have opinions, to share what we know?  our views?

Why are you on JN if it's not to express your opinion and view others?

Mate, you can do whatever you like, and say anything that pleases you. 

[Jet Nut]

38 minutes ago, varjet said:

If the Jets pass on Wilson and he turns out better than Darnold, JD is toast.

If the Jets draft Wilson and he gets hurt, I think JD tried.  

Trading 3 additional picks for Darnold helped get Mac fired.  The Jets can't trade picks for Watson and ever be good.  The roster is too bad.

So they Jets could try trading down a few spots (not more than a few) and try to get Fields or Lance (and even more picks), and I think people would be fair if that move did not work out.

But paying big money to a QB who is not good will destroy a GM, as will giving up all of your draft picks.

To me the biggest question is whether you keep Darnold for insurance or let him go.  I am inclined to keep him.  

There are a few mistakes in this post

JD isnt drafting to save his ass.  Hes taking the best player(s) for his plan.  Hes not afraid that Wilson, Fields whoever wont be as good as Lance.  

Macc was fired because he was bad, because on top of that he got along with none in the Jets facility not because Sam was what he thought after two whole seasons 

[BroadwayRay]

34 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

douglas will be on the hot seat by week 4 this season if he trades back, darnold sucks and wilson is good right away.  no more free passes for douglas.

 

9 minutes ago, Paradis said:

 

ahhh no. not true. Lots of GMs with jobs right now passed on Watson and Mahomes. 

Ahh, yes, very true. If he keeps Darnold, passes on Wilson, and the Darnold-Sucks/Wilson-Is-Good scenario plays out, Douglas will not only be crushed by the media, it will haunt him for the rest of his tenure unless he finds another franchise QB somewhere. Mahomes and Watson were never regarded as consensus top 5 picks. Many were surprised they went as high as they did at the time of the draft. There is no comparison to this situation. What Douglas is going to do with Darnold and the #2 pick is one of the consuming questions in all of the NFL right now because of the ripple effects on the Jets future, but other teams as well. If he trades Darnold and Darnold does well with another team, and Wilson struggles in his first year, at least he'll have a built-in window of time to see if Wilson develops. He will have no such honeymoon period in the other scenario.

[Adobolo]

41 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

douglas will be on the hot seat by week 4 this season if he trades back, darnold sucks and wilson is good right away.  no more free passes for douglas.

So if things don't work out by week 4 of a 2/3 year rebuild you would want joe fired? I know modern fans are fickle but that's ridiculous

[Jet Nut]

14 minutes ago, Paradis said:

You're looking at this purely from the QB lense.... not a GM and his 53 spectacles. 

Drafting a Rookie QB onto a CFL roster comes with it's own challenges. Look what it did to Sam.

consider this--

• when is it best to start the clock on your 4 year window for a rookie QB contract. What development and use is there to having a rookie on your 2021 with an Oline in flux, rookie playmakers and a defense that will likely ask him to throw up 21+ pts weekly.
• Are you setting up the rookie for success in measurably better way by getting Pitts and Waddle this year in addition to other pieces in the trenches - then asking him the rookie to do that much with that much less this year.

It's not all about Confidence in Sam.

Theres no reason the Jets have to have a CFL roster after FA and the draft.

Also theres a whole set of challenges to putting together a roster that can start winning and have it held back by a rookie QB trying to learn how to play football.

Its a double edged sword to me so if JD likes a QB he should just go get him.  If the QB is ready to start playing unlike a rookie in year two, the Jets with a 2nd year of FA and the Draft would be in better shape to win.

[T0mShane]

1 hour ago, varjet said:

If the Jets pass on Wilson and he turns out better than Darnold, JD is toast.

Why would Darnold be the bar here? Wilson could be Mitch Trubisky and still be better than Darnold. The fact of the matter is that Zack Wilson has to be better than Deshaun Watson, presuming  Watson successfully shoots his way out of Houston. 

[Augustiniak]

24 minutes ago, Adobolo said:

So if things don't work out by week 4 of a 2/3 year rebuild you would want joe fired? I know modern fans are fickle but that's ridiculous

No, but it would call into question his ability to evaluate quarterbacks.

[section314]

4 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Why would Darnold be the bar here? Wilson could be Mitch Trubisky and still be better than Darnold. The fact of the matter is that Zack Wilson has to be better than Deshaun Watson, presuming  Watson successfully shoots his way out of Houston. 

Great point. You take Wilson at #2, he has to be great. Period. Gettleman may be nuts, but when he said he looks at #2 as a gold jacket guy, he's spot on.

[pointman]

5 hours ago, Wonderboy said:

Take Sewell at #2, trade Becton to Cincy for their #5 and a 3rd rounder.  You've just upgraded the LT position with the best LT prospect in ages and traded the value of a #11 pick for the value of a #5 pick.  They would bite like a shark at the beach.  They are desperate for a LT.  Take whatever QB is there at #5 or trade back and get more picks. If JD is not absolutely sold on a QB in this draft then just add playmakers.  Sooner or later we have to luck out on a QB.  Herbert, Mahomes, Watson, Rodgers, Brady, etc etc etc were not top 5 picks.  Our roster STINKS and I'm not a big fan of how JD has brought in FA's. He seems to be better at drafting. But it's still early in his GM role so hopefully he hits pay dirt this year.  

Statistically speaking, the chances of a shark bite at the beach are significantly lower than one would normally think. Also, trade Becton a known commodity for one that is unknown based on hype, WHILE spending our #2 on a tackle when we have no one to throw the ball? Get outtttttaa heeeere.

 

 

[Morrissey]

4 hours ago, maury77 said:

1) Joe Douglas is at North Dakota State today. Sure, the Jets may be hypothetically leaning towards Wilson, but if the decisions had been made, the team wouldn't be scouting Lance (unless Douglas is there to scout Rudnaz, but I doubt he would fly out for that). 

2) I'm a big fan of Pauline, but I still remember him telling me 20 minutes before the draft that Dareus was going number 1 and the Panthers selected Newton. 

 

dilfer still not tired of being wrong...

[Cbucco19]

5 hours ago, football guy said:

The Jets will not take Penei Sewell at #2. If they do stick with Darnold and opt against taking a QB #2, they will trade down and seek to draft Pitts. Joe Douglas has been monitoring him since his early high school years and is extremely high on him. If they traded down and he were to get selected ahead of their pick, then its hard to say what direction they would go. They're high on Jaylen Waddle, but I'm not sure if they're high enough to select him top 10. I say this with conviction because I trust the sources that have told me this... they've never steered me wrong RE: draft in the past 6 years

I think we are discounting taking Wilson at 2 and possibly moving 23 and sam for 9 or 12

[varjet]

I really think you keep both Darnold and Wilson and then we can tag and trade Darnold if he shows up with his head screwed on straight.  Or you trade Wilson for a Minkah+ deal.  

With all of the draft picks and cap space we have, and considering we used 2nd round pick on Mims last year, why trade Darnold for a 2nd when maybe you get a first later?  And Wilson can watch more?  

At $15mm for 2 QBs, its less than Garrapollo, about the same as Newton, and we don't have to pay another backup other than Morgan.

If you trade more than the 2 and another 1 for Watson, you never build the roster back.  

[Morrissey]

4 hours ago, Warfish said:

I've all but mentally surrendered re: this draft and who we're taking at #2.

It's probably Wilson.

He's the last player I'd take, I think he's undersized, has played underwhelming competition, and is basically a one year hype wonder with too little resume and too much hype.  And despite what some say, I don't see anything "NFL Special" when I see his play on video.

But I guess I'll have to hope I'm wrong.  Because more and more I am starting to believe he is the guy they want.  Just makes vastly too much sense from a CYA perspective for the GM (Wilson is by and away the "safe" move for a GM in that spot) and it resets the J.D.-on-the-hot-seat clock, basically meaning nothing he's done the past two years matter, he may as well be considered a rookie GM this year, perception wise.

If he's the pick, I'm gonna be pretty down about it, but such is life.  All you can do is hope you're 100% wrong, because if he's the pick, he's the guy for at least 3-4 years minimum, just like Sam was.  Just would love one of these cycles to not feel like they're drafting obviously flawed QB's.

he'll at at least be better than Patrick Ramsey

[Paradis]

26 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

Theres no reason the Jets have to have a CFL roster after FA and the draft.

Also theres a whole set of challenges to putting together a roster that can start winning and have it held back by a rookie QB trying to learn how to play football.

Its a double edged sword to me so if JD likes a QB he should just go get him.  If the QB is ready to start playing unlike a rookie in year two, the Jets with a 2nd year of FA and the Draft would be in better shape to win.

Yep all true. I wasn’t necessarily saying that the vision I painted was the singular truth, only that there is multiple shades to this bob rossian experience. It’s not decision flow chart that starts with drafting Wilson/Fields

[Adobolo]

2 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

No, but it would call into question his ability to evaluate quarterbacks.

Fair enough, but personally I don't see this off season as a wilson vs Darnold as most do. For me it's about building a winning team by improving to roster as much as possible over the next two years, that may mean passing on wilson to gain draft capital and not so much about sticking with Darnold for the long term but seeing what we have in him and if he fails we will he in a better position to inset a rookie QB or one we trade for in the future than we are right now.

[Warfish]

21 minutes ago, Morrissey said:

he'll at at least be better than Patrick Ramsey

I'm sure you realize that simply repeating that joke doesn't make it funnier, right?

I've owned my support for Ramsey a thousand times.  I own the guys Jersey, I laugh about it regularly to friends and family. 

It's not a gotcha.

Since Ramsey, I've been 100% right on every single Jets QB right down the line.  I'm happy to put that record up against anyone here, lol.

 

[slimjasi]

1 hour ago, Paradis said:

You're looking at this purely from the QB lense.... not a GM and his 53 spectacles. 

Drafting a Rookie QB onto a CFL roster comes with it's own challenges. Look what it did to Sam.

consider this--

• when is it best to start the clock on your 4 year window for a rookie QB contract. What development and use is there to having a rookie on your 2021 with an Oline in flux, rookie playmakers and a defense that will likely ask him to throw up 21+ pts weekly.
• Are you setting up the rookie for success in measurably better way by getting Pitts and Waddle this year in addition to other pieces in the trenches - then asking him the rookie to do that much with that much less this year.

It's not all about Confidence in Sam.

Fair, but I still think year 4 of Sam isn't an ideal fit for this team going forward, even if you do buy that Sam could still be really good (which I'm openly skeptical about)

Looking forward to seeing what the Jets actually do

[Charlie Brown]

1 hour ago, Paradis said:

You're looking at this purely from the QB lense.... not a GM and his 53 spectacles. 

Drafting a Rookie QB onto a CFL roster comes with it's own challenges. Look what it did to Sam.

consider this--

• when is it best to start the clock on your 4 year window for a rookie QB contract. What development and use is there to having a rookie on your 2021 with an Oline in flux, rookie playmakers and a defense that will likely ask him to throw up 21+ pts weekly.
• Are you setting up the rookie for success in measurably better way by getting Pitts and Waddle this year in addition to other pieces in the trenches - then asking him the rookie to do that much with that much less this year.

It's not all about Confidence in Sam.

This is why I am for drafting a QB; keeping Darnold and letting said drafted QB sit for one year and learn and the team can be better when and if said rookie QB trots out on the field~!

[Philc1]

3 hours ago, slimjasi said:

It's more the fact that he has had multiple surgeries before playing an NFL game. I just think surgeries have a way of compounding. Some guys need surgery after surgery, others don't. 

I'm definitely excited by his potential. 

The Jets never learn from their mistakes.  DRob, Dee Milliner etc

[Biggs]

5 minutes ago, Charlie Brown said:

This is why I am for drafting a QB; keeping Darnold and letting said drafted QB sit for one year and learn and the team can be better when and if said rookie QB trots out on the field~!

If Sam is terrible and rookie isn't ready it blows up in your face.  Better off if you want to move on from Sam bring in a Vet to start who knows he's a placeholder.

[GreenFish]

Pauline has broken news on the Jets in the past. He also doesn’t seem to speculate. I believe him. Which likely means Darnold is about to get traded.