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The Draft Wilson/Keep Darnold, too, Hypothesis Thread


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51 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

I totally get this.  But imagine a scenario where JD is telling ownership and Saleh, "I think with this new offensive system LaFleur is going to run and the weapons and protection we're adding on offense Sam really has a chance to make progress.  But, it's not guaranteed.  We HAVE to use this opportunity of the #2 pick to take a guy like Wilson who is absolutely worthy of the #2 overall, but we shouldn't be trading Sam for pennies on the dollar.  Let's give ourselves some optionality here.  The market for Sam is tough right now... we may not get more than a 3rd during the Draft, and even if we're only able to move him in October for a 4th or a 5th it might be worth it on the chance that he truly excels in the new system and we're getting offered something like a 2nd or a conditional 1st/2nd this Fall."

If Joe Douglas looks bad because Sam excels and ownership thinks Joe should have known Sam would be good and not drafted a QB at #2, then how bad would JD look if he trades Sam for a 3rd and he ends up taking Washington, Carolina or Denver to a Wild Card berth?

idk, i think you got to be all in on whoever is the QB. you cant be half pregnant. 

i want every resource, every second the coach has and whatever else to go to making whoever the QB is better .i don't know if you can do that if both Sam and Wilson are on the team.

sorry but a 3rd rd pick is all Sam is worth if were lucky. 

and what about the contract? if you trade him in season it will be after 8 games. what do you think your getting for someone with 8 games to go before hes a free agent? probably less then you can get now. and were not signing him to that 18 mil extension.

i don't think anyone can blame JD for trading sam. if he plays well somewhere else so be it. how many chances can we give the guy.

and just food for thought. you worry about trading Sam for pennies. well i don't think JD cares. he released Bell. i don't know about you but i bet you AND me thought he could get something for him. anything. but he didn't. and he didn't say, ....well if i cant get something then im keeping him on the team. maybe he will play well and i can get something after the season. no, because JD knew the team was better without him. 

now i don't think that will happen to Sam cause somebody will give something for a QB. i just think that JD wont keep Sam cause he didn't get the trade he wanted. 

i think Sam gets traded day 2 of the draft. Carolina and Denver are the most likely landing spots and there holding out to see if they can move up for a QB. if they cant that's where Sam goes for a 3rd or 4th rd pick.

 

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3 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

The #23 and Darnold for the #8 would be a fantastic trade.  Perhaps the Jets need to throw in another late round pick (e.g. #107)... I'm not looking at the value chart right now.  But that almost seems like a win-win that gets the Panthers a starting QB (who Rhule seemed to like when he interviewed here) and still keeps Carolina in the 1st round, and it puts the Jets in striking distance for a true playmaker at #8 or one of the top 2 offensive linemen.  At #8 we're looking at WRs like Chase, Waddle, or Smith, an OL like Sewell or Slater, or the wet dream of TE Kyle Pitts dropping there.  With at least 3 QBs going in the Top 8 (probably more) we're likely looking at more than just one or two of those guys being available at #8.

I have thought for a while that should be our focus to get to 8 using Sam. I would even slightly overpay for the spot since we could see 5 QBs go before then and get a truly elite player. Using Sam in a pick swap seems like the most logical thing to do and the option that would provide the most value. 

To me if there really is a bit of a decision/debate on whether to roll with Sam or select Wilson then Sam is still viewed within the league as valuable with more value than maybe we would think. Arizona got like a 2 and 5 for Rosen, and Sam as bad as he is still has more promise than Rosen did after a single season. Usually a high first round pick especially a QB is viewed through the lens  of his original evaluation instead of his actual performance on the field. I don't think it makes a lot of sense but it is pretty consistent. 

Gase was so horrible as a coach last year and our weapons so bad most will completely dismiss last year, and instead look to games like Dallas last year as signs of his potential.

I think Sam has more value than people think and I think we can get more value in a pick swap as well.

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9 hours ago, jeremy2020 said:

There's a reason teams don't do it. If Sam is on the team after draft day then it's a failure because any value you could get is gone. The 2nd or 3rd that's being offered is gone. While that may or may not be 'fair' compensation, just tossing it away is a waste. 

..and if you think sam is "competition" for Wilson then, Wow.. Wilson is the wrong guy to pick. 

What makes you think JD's seen a 2nd  round offer for Sam?  I'd be surprised if he wouldn't take it...

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12 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

If the Jets keep Darnold and he departs after next year they'd likely get a compensatory 3rd rounder

No they wouldn't. He'd likely sign an incentive laden deal based on playing time and hitting certain markers that might get the Jets a fifth round comp pick in 2023 - and that's only if they sign fewer free agents than they lose next year. 

If they've decided to draft Wilson, they'd need to move Darnold. I'd do it before the draft to get capital to help this year's team. 

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12 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

This idea has been kicked around a little bit but it seems to be getting more legs lately.  Some points being made in the linked video below...

  • If the Jets keep Darnold and he departs after next year they'd likely get a compensatory 3rd rounder
  • If the current market isn't yielding offers much higher than a 3rd there's no compelling reason to trade Darnold
  • Even picking up the 5th year option given the Jets cap space and situation wouldn't be a problem and would still likely be a discount to what teams would be paying low-end starters in 2022
  • Trading Darnold after the Draft in the Summer or the Fall could yield better offers.

 

ESPN: Why the Jets aren't rushing to trade Sam Darnold

1321027480_ScreenShot2021-04-02at6_10_10PM.png.fd9cdb8a69c674afd0a6910f1d9a32a7.png

 

My question - What would be the expected Cap cost in 2021 of drafting Wilson and keeping Darnold?  What would that cost be in 2022 if Darnold was on a 5th year option and still kept (similar to Brett Favre starting in GB for two years while Aaron Rodgers waited)?

Is the reason the Jets haven't signed any other QB like CJ Beathard an indication the Jets could be serious about rolling with both Darnold and Wilson in 2021?

Agree with this. I don’t see the downside to keeping darnold unless they get a good draft pick. The only thing in question is whether or not they exercise the fifth year option. I don’t think they will because they won’t be able to judge the QBs before May.  And if Wilson is a great choice this year he will still be a valuable asset next season if they choose to run with darnold.

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5 hours ago, rangerous said:

Agree with this. I don’t see the downside to keeping darnold unless they get a good draft pick. The only thing in question is whether or not they exercise the fifth year option. I don’t think they will because they won’t be able to judge the QBs before May.  And if Wilson is a great choice this year he will still be a valuable asset next season if they choose to run with darnold.

It's the most important position on the field.  Is the difference between a 3rd round pick and 5th round pick really worth limiting your options at QB?  Rolling with Wilson, Darnold and Morgan gives the team better options.

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I doubt we’ll do it. Saleh probably wouldn’t want it. 

That said I’d be completely fine with it. I’d even give Sam the job and let Wilson sit a year if we thought that would help him. He could walk into a much stronger offence with another year of investment. 

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14 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

The #23 and Darnold for the #8 would be a fantastic trade.  Perhaps the Jets need to throw in another late round pick (e.g. #107)... I'm not looking at the value chart right now.  But that almost seems like a win-win that gets the Panthers a starting QB (who Rhule seemed to like when he interviewed here) and still keeps Carolina in the 1st round, and it puts the Jets in striking distance for a true playmaker at #8 or one of the top 2 offensive linemen.  At #8 we're looking at WRs like Chase, Waddle, or Smith, an OL like Sewell or Slater, or the wet dream of TE Kyle Pitts dropping there.  With at least 3 QBs going in the Top 8 (probably more) we're likely looking at more than just one or two of those guys being available at #8.

 

10 hours ago, johnnysd said:

I have thought for a while that should be our focus to get to 8 using Sam. I would even slightly overpay for the spot since we could see 5 QBs go before then and get a truly elite player. Using Sam in a pick swap seems like the most logical thing to do and the option that would provide the most value. 

To me if there really is a bit of a decision/debate on whether to roll with Sam or select Wilson then Sam is still viewed within the league as valuable with more value than maybe we would think. Arizona got like a 2 and 5 for Rosen, and Sam as bad as he is still has more promise than Rosen did after a single season. Usually a high first round pick especially a QB is viewed through the lens  of his original evaluation instead of his actual performance on the field. I don't think it makes a lot of sense but it is pretty consistent. 

Gase was so horrible as a coach last year and our weapons so bad most will completely dismiss last year, and instead look to games like Dallas last year as signs of his potential.

I think Sam has more value than people think and I think we can get more value in a pick swap as well.

To get from 23 to 8 you’d have to add so much more than Sam. You’d probably have to throw in a 1st from next year or a couple of 2nds. The draft value chart has #8 as 1400 and #23 as 760. Sam isn’t worth a late 1st or anywhere close. Carolina fans would riot.

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52 minutes ago, Irish Jet said:

 

 

To get from 23 to 8 you’d have to add so much more than Sam. You’d probably have to throw in a 1st from next year or a couple of 2nds. The draft value chart has #8 as 1400 and #23 as 760. Sam isn’t worth a late 1st or anywhere close. Carolina fans would riot.

I was including 66 as well. so it valued Sam as a mid second rounder. I would still do Sam, 66, 23 and 2nd rounder next year for 8

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3 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

It's the most important position on the field.  Is the difference between a 3rd round pick and 5th round pick really worth limiting your options at QB?  Rolling with Wilson, Darnold and Morgan gives the team better options.

totally agree.  i think people forget that darnold did have a +500 record in 2019.  get him the tools and let him compete with wilson if that's the route they take.

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3 hours ago, rangerous said:

totally agree.  i think people forget that darnold did have a +500 record in 2019.  get him the tools and let him compete with wilson if that's the route they take.

That’s a good point about the 2019 season. This team has been such a mess for years that we forget things like that. Sam missing 10 games and his back ups going 0 - 10 just emphasizes how bad this environment, roster and coaching have been.

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17 hours ago, slats said:

No they wouldn't. He'd likely sign an incentive laden deal based on playing time and hitting certain markers that might get the Jets a fifth round comp pick in 2023 - and that's only if they sign fewer free agents than they lose next year. 

If they've decided to draft Wilson, they'd need to move Darnold. I'd do it before the draft to get capital to help this year's team. 

You’re 100% correct on the math. Only way Darnold would return a 3rd round comp pick is if he had the type of season that’d make the Jets tag or extend him anyway. That is, unless it was really good but not really-really-really good, where we’re still inclined to move on but someone else still is willign to give him a $30-40MM/yr contract. It could happen (see Alex Smith’s contract with Washington, after his final season in KC, or Brees when SD let him go) but it’s unusual/uncommon to say the least.

The only way I see them drafting Wilson and still keeping Darnold is if the trade offers for Darnold are so weak (e.g. a day 3 pick) that they may as well keep him for one more relatively cheap year. Any day 2 pick or higher - including a day 2 pick next year - and I think they just move on. It’d be more compensation than a comp pick, plus it’s a sure thing to get it, but I can see them on the fence if the top offer’s just a 4th round pick or something.

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Do the Jets get a comp pick if they decline the 5th year option? I thought no, because the updated CBA appropriately did away with that ridiculous loophole for veteran contracts (as of last season, any extra year(s) option declined makes the player no longer qualify as a compensatory FA). But that may not be correct.

Reading that part of the CBA it looks like there’s a special carve out just for declining 1st round draft picks’ 5th year options. (Maybe it’s because they have to be exercised a full season in advance and further that they get such giant pay raises in year 5, plus those pay raises are guaranteed in full upon exercising it; maybe it’s because they all get it in their contracts automatically & it wasn’t a negotiated option year thanks to the player’s agent). Regardless, it’s 3:30 am and I’m not 100% so maybe I’m reading it wrong (in fairness it reads like a “it won’t not...” double-negative).

@jason423’s site has the CBA in full. Skipping to this appendix, and emphasizing the last part I bolded...

https://overthecap.com/collective-bargaining-agreement/appendix/V/

8. No UFA shall qualify as a CFA unless and until the maximum possible term of the player’s contract (“Maximum Possible Term”) has expired, and all other requirements have been satisfied. The Maximum Possible Term of any Player Contract shall be determined as of the date of such contract’s execution and shall include all years of the contract (including, without limitation, option years and voidable years). Notwithstanding the foregoing, a UFA shall qualify as a CFA if the Maximum Possible Term of the player’s contract failed to expire solely as the result of a provision stating that a specified contract year or years shall void automatically upon a specified day or date or upon the achievement of a roster condition with no additional contingencies (“Automatic Voidable Year”), unless the expired contract is a renegotiated contract that included a new or earlier Automatic Voidable Year within the Maximum Possible Term of the player’s prior contract and such void occurred. For the avoidance of doubt, no UFA shall qualify as a CFA if the Maximum Possible Term of the player’s contract is reduced as the result of the player’s or the Club’s decision to exercise, or not to exercise, any contractual rights, whether individually or in combination. No UFA shall qualify as a CFA if the player’s NFL Player Contract is renegotiated to reduce the Maximum Possible Term of the contract. Notwithstanding anything to the contrary in this Paragraph 9, in the event a Club elects not to exercise a Fifth-Year Option under Article 7, Section 7, nothing in Article 6 or this Appendix shall operate to preclude the player from qualifying as a CFA upon expiration of the fourth year of his Rookie Contract if all other requirements are satisfied.

The “won’t not get” instead of “will get” type wording is probably just because they don’t simply get one: in order to qualify for a comp pick, the team has to lose more qualifying players than it signed, plus the player has to sign a qualifying offer elsewhere in the first place.

So th way I’m reading this, so long as there isn’t some other clause not met over the first 4 years - e.g. redos/restrucutres after year 3, or some other unusual condition - the Jets could decline his 5th year option, keep him for year 4, and still have him qualify for a comp pick.

Doubt it’s more than a 5th rounder (in 2023), though, and it might only be a 6th round comp pick.

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FLORHAM PARK, N.J. -- A look at what's happening around the New York Jets:
 
Podcast | Flight Deck
ESPN Jets reporter Rich Cimini and ESPN draft analyst Matt Miller discuss Zach Wilson's pro day and the team's QB decision. » Listen here
 
1. Darnold vs. Wilson? Former Jets quarterback Josh McCown couldn't help but laugh at how the narrative surrounding Sam Darnold has changed. Noting the fickle nature of the NFL, McCown told ESPN this week, "Three years ago, it was 'Suck for Sam.' Now it's, 'Sucked for Sam.'"
 
The past three seasonshave stunk for everybody connected with the Jets, and that's one of the reasons Darnold could be replaced by a rookie, presumably BYU's Zach Wilson. McCown, who became a mentor to Darnold in 2018 and has remained close with him, believes the Jets would be wise to keep him. He feels Darnold would thrive in a stable, quarterback-friendly environment, something he hasn't had.
 
"This is the situation you want to come into, what they set up now," McCown said. "You have a head coach and a GM that are aligned. You have picks, you have cap space and you've put yourself in a position to make a run at genuine, long-term success. Unfortunately, that's not the situation that Sam came into."
 
"Can it be done? Absolutely," McCown said. "In my mind, if you can't get the value now for him, that's absolutely how you go about it. I wouldn't even call it a competition. I would just say, 'We're going to go with Sam as the guy and bring Zach along.' If Sam knocks it out of the park, we'll re-evaluate where we are a year from now.
 
2. Mini-mock 1.o: Yep, it's that time.
 
With the No. 2 pick, I'm predicting Wilson to the Jets -- hardly a bombshell and the chalk pick at this point. At No. 23, it's Northwestern cornerback Greg Newsome II, who would fill a big need and has the ball skills to excel in their Cover 3 scheme. He'd be the fourth corner off the board in my mock. Some mocks have the Jets taking a running back, but that w
 
1. Darnold vs. Wilson? Former Jets quarterback Josh McCown couldn't help but laugh at how the narrative surrounding Sam Darnold has changed. Noting the fickle nature of the NFL, McCown told ESPN this week, "Three years ago, it was 'Suck for Sam.' Now it's, 'Sucked for Sam.'"
 
 
The past three seasons have stunk for everybody connected with the Jets, and that's one of the reasons Darnold could be replaced by a rookie, presumably BYU's Zach Wilson. McCown, who became a mentor to Darnold in 2018 and has remained close with him, believes the Jets would be wise to keep him. He feels Darnold would thrive in a stable, quarterback-friendly environment, something he hasn't had.
 
"This is the situation you want to come into, what they set up now," McCown said. "You have a head coach and a GM that are aligned. You have picks, you have cap space and you've put yourself in a position to make a run at genuine, long-term success. Unfortunately, that's not the situation that Sam came into."
 
Right now, Darnold is in limbo, the subject of trade rumors. McCown said he hasn't sensed any frustration from Darnold, but he knows it can't be easy.
 
Podcast | Flight Deck
ESPN Jets reporter Rich Cimini and ESPN draft analyst Matt Miller discuss Zach Wilson's pro day and the team's QB decision. » Listen here
 
"To be on the cusp of [an organizational reboot] and have them go, 'Yeah, that's not going to be for you, that's going to be for somebody else' -- no doubt, it's hard," McCown said. "But I have not felt any negativity from him at all. He's always positive and always has a great mindset. That speaks to his character and what he's about."
 
Darnold's trade market appears to be drying up, fueling speculation the Jets could keep Darnold and pair him with a rookie. That could be awkward, but McCown sees the upside in that scenario.
 
Right now, Darnold is in limbo, the subject of trade rumors. McCown said he hasn't sensed any frustration from Darnold, but he knows it can't be easy.
 
"Can it be done? Absolutely," McCown said. "In my mind, if you can't get the value now for him, that's absolutely how you go about it. I wouldn't even call it a competition. I would just say, 'We're going to go with Sam as the guy and bring Zach along.' If Sam knocks it out of the park, we'll re-evaluate where we are a year from now.
 
"Sam would embrace it and be helpful, but he'd also go out and work hard and try to make the most of the opportunity to play this year -- and put it back on them and make them have to make a tough decision at the end of the year. I think, if that happens, really and truly, everybody wins."
 
2. Mini-mock 1.o: Yep, it's that time.
 
With the No. 2 pick, I'm predicting Wilson to the Jets -- hardly a bombshell and the chalk pick at this point. At No. 23, it's Northwestern cornerback Greg Newsome II, who would fill a big need and has the ball skills to excel in their Cover 3 scheme. He'd be the fourth corner off the board in my mock. Some mocks have the Jets taking a running back, but that would be a surprise this early.
 
play
1:10
Tannenbaum says Zach Wilson has higher ceiling than Sam DarnoldMike Tannenbaum explains why Zach Wilson is the better choice at quarterback for the Jets over Sam Darnold.
3. Zach attack: One of the reasons the Jets like Wilson is because he's an ideal scheme fit. They're installing the Shanahan version of the West Coast offense, which stresses play-action and a moving pocket. A quarterback must be able to throw on the run, and Wilson does that very well.
 
On designed rollouts in 2020, Wilson completed 69.4% (25-of-36) of pass attempts for 320 yards, five touchdowns with zero interceptions and zero sacks, according to ESPN Stats & Information. Keep in mind, we're talking about high-percentage passes for the most part, but this provides context: His 96.4 QBR on designed rollouts was the third-highest mark among quarterbacks with 25 such dropbacks over the past three seasons.
 
Wilson also crushed it as a play-action passer, completing 74% (96-of-129) with 19 touchdowns with zero interceptions.
 
Based strictly on scheme, Wilson is the right guy for the Jets. But we know there's more to it than that.
 
4. Draft trivia: In franchise history, which Jets draft pick (non-kicker) has the most career games played? Answer below.
 
5. Earn it! You may have noticed a trend among the Jets' free-agent signings: Eight of the 12 additions have relatively large incentive packages included in their deals. For instance: Defensive end Carl Lawson, who has a three-year contract, can pocket an additional $800,000 per year based on sack incentives
 

There has been a shift in organizational philosophy over the past couple of years.

Salary-cap/contract expert Jason Fitzgerald of OvertheCap.com did some research and discovered the Jets have made 32 signings between 2019 and 2021 with incentives and/or escalators -- a significant increase from previous years. There were eight in 2017-18, mostly modest amounts. He traces the change to senior director of football administration Dave Socie, who arrived in 2018 after several years in the league office.

"This year, in particular, [the incentives] are big, relative to the size of the deals," said Fitzgerald, mentioning running back Tevin Coleman, defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins, defensive end Vinny Curry and safety Lamarcus Joyner. Fitzgerald said the incentive packages are "clearly being used to entice the veteran player."

Coleman, Curry and Joyner signed one-year deals. Rankins has a two-year contract with the chance to earn an additional $4 million in performance incentives and $2 million in performance escalators.

In case you're wondering, the incentives don't count on the cap unless they're earned. Smart.

6. See ya! The Jets, who began with 19 unrestricted free agents, have retained one so far -- safety Marcus Maye, who signed his franchise-tag tender ($10.6 million). They haven't re-signed any others, which says everything you need to know about how coach Robert Saleh feels about what he inherited. They did re-sign wide receiver Vyncint Smith and running back Josh Adams, but they were in the restricted category and received modest deals less than the RFA tender.

7. Philly jinx: As everybody knows, the Jets' "17th opponent" in the new 17-game schedule is the Philadelphia Eagles. Figures, right? The Eagles are the only team the Jets have never beaten -- never ever. They're 0-11, including five straight losses in which they failed to score 20 points.

8. Not-so-sweet 16: As a franchise, the Jets probably won't miss the 16-game season. I mean, it's not like they produced a bunch of glittering seasons and statistical milestones during the 43-year run of 16-game seasons. In fact, the Jets and Chicago Bears were the only teams that didn't have a 4,000-yard passer in a season. Joe Namath passed for 4,007 in 1967, when the season was 14 games. Since then, 197 quarterbacks have eclipsed 4,000 in a season.

 

In a not-so-fond farewell to the 16-game season, let's take a moment to recognize the Jets' statistical bests during that era:

 

Most wins: 12-4 (1998).

 

Most passing yards: 3,905, Ryan Fitzpatrick (2015).

 

Most rushing yards: 1,697, Curtis Martin (2004). Martin was responsible for seven of the team's 17 1,000-yard rushing seasons.

 

Most receiving yards: 1,502, Brandon Marshall (2015). The team had 14 1,000-yard receiving seasons, including five by Don Maynard, who accomplished all five in 14-game seasons.

 

Most touchdowns: 15, Thomas Jones (2008).

 

9. Be like Nick: Oklahoma center Creed Humphrey is a self-described film junkie. He likes to study top centers, and one of his favorites is former Jets Pro Bowler Nick Mangold. He also admires Travis Frederick and Maurkice Pouncey, formerly of the Dallas Cowboys and Pittsburgh Steelers, respectively.

 

"Those are the three I watch the most," Humphrey said at his pro day. "All three of them are tough, physical players, good leaders for their team, so they are the kinds of guys I'm drawn to the most."

 

10. Trivia answer: Linebacker James Farrior, 230 games. He was the No. 8 overall pick in 1997, coach Bill Parcells' first draft. He played five seasons with the Jets, 10 with the Steelers.

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4 minutes ago, Jdub03 said:

This is the scenario I am hoping for if a QB is drafted #2.  Let's make the Rookie earn the starting gig.  We would have two players with high potential at the most important position.  I'd be happy kicking the Sam decision down the road.  Now if we could package Sam and #34 for top a 10 pick it would probably change my mind. It will be interesting to see what value Sam truly has. At this point we simply don't know. We've heard everything from a late 1 to a 4.

The biggest winner of a competition would be  Joe Douglas. How much value will Wilson have if he gets beat by Sam? Drafting Wilson and missing on Sewell or Pitts would not address our weaknesses by keeping Darnold. Trading for a 3rd rounder instead of a 3rd round comp pick. Too many variances, extremely tough decision. 

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Isn’t Josh McCown a coach on the Texans? Kind of odd that he would make these comments. 
 

Also this ain’t 2003. The Jets aren’t drafting Wilson second overall to spend the entire season on the bench. Darnold may get a few starts, but the Jets will yank him as soon as they can. It’s not a great situation for them to be in.

 

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I agree with someone who posted in another thread that you don't create a QB controversy with an incoming rookie Coach and new staff when you don't have to.  He has many many other things that need to be taken care of and worry about.  This would put JD at top of my sh*t list because it would be a manufactured problem and distraction (especially with the NY media) that could and should have been avoided.

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22 minutes ago, Embrace the Suck said:

That's a real let down. I was expecting him to say "**** that rookie poser trade me now".

If he says that before the draft, he's a scared little b1tch. If he says it after the draft, he'll show he has some self-respect and belief in his abilities. If we draft Sewell, his comment is just weird. 

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