How bad will JD strike out in free agency?

[varjet]

Getting FAs to sign onto this team will be very hard.  

Looking at the top 50 draft able players if I am JD I am trading down as much as possible to draft as many players as possible.  Many of those top 50 players are better than anyone the Jets are signing.  

Guys like Tyler Guyton, the OL from Duke, Ricky Pearson, Brian Thomas, Malachi Corley, the LB from NCSU-that is what we need.  That an OT from PSU Fashanu who is only going to get hurt on this team.  We need more good players.  

[peebag]

Just now, varjet said:

Getting FAs to sign onto this team will be very hard.  

Looking at the top 50 draft able players if I am JD I am trading down as much as possible to draft as many players as possible.  Many of those top 50 players are better than anyone the Jets are signing.  

Guys like Tyler Guyton, the OL from Duke, Ricky Pearson, Brian Thomas, Malachi Corley, the LB from NCSU-that is what we need.  That an OT from PSU Fashanu who is only going to get hurt on this team.  We need more good players.  

I'm not sure why anyone posts on here that the Jets should trade down.

It's not a certainty and depends on so much outside of the teams control.

Also, when was the last time the Jets actually traded down in the 1st round???

[Sperm Edwards]

59 minutes ago, Larz said:

JD needs to know his budget by noonish tomorrow.  
 

if we don’t hear about big cap clearing moves by then we can just skip free agency and start talking about the draft lol 

Why? It doesn’t take much to restructure or cut anyone he wants. Anyone they’re keeping, with a high salary, can have that converted to new signing bonus with void years added, and the papers would take 30 minutes to get done through any player’s agent.

In the meantime he has some $20-25MM and can (and likely would) backload any new FA signings. e.g. when he signed Tomlinson at $13MM/yr, his y1 cap number was barely over $5MM. If you want to use a really rudimentary rule of thumb they can sign players whose contract averages are at least 2x their current cap space.

Having ~$24MM in cap space doesn’t at all mean (after holding back ~$5MM for their rookie pool) they can only sign one $15MM/yr player, one $4MM/yr player, and then they’re done for the whole offseason.

They can sign anyone they want, backload it, and shuffle things around to restructure (or cut) returning rostered players after that as needed.

[varjet]

27 minutes ago, peebag said:

I'm not sure why anyone posts on here that the Jets should trade down.

It's not a certainty and depends on so much outside of the teams control.

Also, when was the last time the Jets actually traded down in the 1st round???

My amateur evaluation of this draft indicates a lot of serviceable players in the bottom of the 1st round/second round.  I don’t think that has been the case with other drafts.

The Jets do not have a second round draft pick.

The Jets have a lot of holes, and I am not confident that they are going to fill them in FA.  

So that is my basis for recommending trading down.  No, they have not done it recently.  I think they were better off trading down last year after they stupidly switched picks with the Packers.  

i think we need more top 50 draft picks, not one pick at 10.  

We shall see how this goes. 

[BornJetsFan1983]

Well this aged poorly, already joes off to great start. Predictably.

[Warfish]

1 hour ago, SackExchangeNYJ said:

Not sure where any of that came from.

We seem to have a population here whose only contribution to the discussion is to complain about Jets Fans.

[SackExchangeNYJ]

9 minutes ago, Warfish said:

We seem to have a population here whose only contribution to the discussion is to complain about Jets Fans.

Well, yes. There is also a segment whose only contribution to the discussion is to complain about the Jets. 

[JoeNamathsFurCoat]

 

[Larz]

6 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Why? It doesn’t take much to restructure or cut anyone he wants. Anyone they’re keeping, with a high salary, can have that converted to new signing bonus with void years added, and the papers would take 30 minutes to get done through any player’s agent.

In the meantime he has some $20-25MM and can (and likely would) backload any new FA signings. e.g. when he signed Tomlinson at $13MM/yr, his y1 cap number was barely over $5MM. If you want to use a really rudimentary rule of thumb they can sign players whose contract averages are at least 2x their current cap space.

Having ~$24MM in cap space doesn’t at all mean (after holding back ~$5MM for their rookie pool) they can only sign one $15MM/yr player, one $4MM/yr player, and then they’re done for the whole offseason.

They can sign anyone they want, backload it, and shuffle things around to restructure (or cut) returning rostered players after that as needed.

Mostly because they are competing with teams that can front load the deal and give more year 1 money.  

[Warfish]

5 hours ago, SackExchangeNYJ said:

Well, yes. There is also a segment whose only contribution to the discussion is to complain about the Jets. 

Complaining about the Jets after 12+ non playoff seasons and five bust drafted QB’s?

Who woulda thunk it.

[Fantasy Island]

On 3/9/2024 at 12:54 PM, Sammybighead said:

On a scale of 1-10, 10 being last years free agent crop, how bad does JD wiff? 

We gonna lose huff, end up with the corpse if bhaktiari, and if we're really good little boys and girls, maybe just maybe he'll treat us to obj or Hollywood brown.

I don't have a good feeling at all

[Jet2020]

Why can’t it be 0?

[Sperm Edwards]

5 hours ago, Larz said:

Mostly because they are competing with teams that can front load the deal and give more year 1 money.  

It's the same amount of money unless someone literally outbids Douglas. If anything they get more of it right away if it's signing bonus as opposed to salary. A $20MM signing bonus and a $1MM salary is the same amount of year 1 money as a $10MM signing bonus and $11MM salary, all of it guaranteed in either instance.

Where the details come in - and tbh they probably don't for a good amount of these guys - is that, inflation and/or investment appreciation over 6-9 months notwithstanding, they make less from a Jets signing bonus than they would by accepting it as salary; at least as salary, some of those game checks would be paid via lower-tax rates (e.g. road game in Miami). Since few players really predict the economy or return on market investments, most prefer bird in the hand: the biggest check they can get right away. An agent working for the player, based in FL, doesn't give a crap (and prefers the lump bonus because then he gets it all, free of state tax, right away). 

[varjet]

It’s pretty simple to me.   JD has a limited amount of cap space to spend.  Let’s say each player has a rating score.  He needs to take the cap space and improve the average rating.  

[DoubleDown]

The Jets have a 40 year old Rodgers and lame ducks at GM and HC.

If you were a free agent, would you sign here?  The players and their agents aren't dumb.  The Jets will need to go above and beyond in terms of money to sign any mid level or higher players.

Trades and the draft are their best bets at adding quality pieces.

[Larz]

1 hour ago, Sperm Edwards said:

It's the same amount of money unless someone literally outbids Douglas. If anything they get more of it right away if it's signing bonus as opposed to salary. A $20MM signing bonus and a $1MM salary is the same amount of year 1 money as a $10MM signing bonus and $11MM salary, all of it guaranteed in either instance.

Where the details come in - and tbh they probably don't for a good amount of these guys - is that, inflation and/or investment appreciation over 6-9 months notwithstanding, they make less from a Jets signing bonus than they would by accepting it as salary; at least as salary, some of those game checks would be paid via lower-tax rates (e.g. road game in Miami). Since few players really predict the economy or return on market investments, most prefer bird in the hand: the biggest check they can get right away. An agent working for the player, based in FL, doesn't give a crap (and prefers the lump bonus because then he gets it all, free of state tax, right away). 

The jets have had to outbid people going back to the 80sNow they really can’t do it.  After Clark and the corner and zuerlein what is the cap space now, best guess? 14 million?

They are in the $3 mill per market.  They just can’t afford a popular player with options 

[FTL Jet Fan]

19 hours ago, Warfish said:

The "I'm a better fan than you all because I'm a pollyanna who never complains" contingent are so cute some days, lol.

Still the same arrogant narcissistic Warfish. Like the Pollyanna ha ha, better than crybabies. 

[NYJCAP2]

47 minutes ago, varjet said:

It’s pretty simple to me.   JD has a limited amount of cap space to spend.  Let’s say each player has a rating score.  He needs to take the cap space and improve the average rating.  

By limited, do you mean league average?

[NYJCAP2]

16 minutes ago, Larz said:

The jets have had to outbid people going back to the 80sNow they really can’t do it.  After Clark and the corner and zuerlein what is the cap space now, best guess? 14 million?

They are in the $3 mill per market.  They just can’t afford a popular player with options 

So you’re saying it’s a good plan to keep doing so?

[bicketybam]

Still the same arrogant narcissistic Warfish. Like the Pollyanna ha ha, better than crybabies. 

Shots fired

[Sperm Edwards]

16 minutes ago, Larz said:

The jets have had to outbid people going back to the 80sNow they really can’t do it.  After Clark and the corner and zuerlein what is the cap space now, best guess? 14 million?

They are in the $3 mill per market.  They just can’t afford a popular player with options 

They can afford anyone they want.

• Clark is unlikely to be more than a few million (getting him to sign by giving him a guaranteed week 1 starting job which effectively guarantees the whole 1 year contract at signing, if it isn't outright guaranteed on paper).
• Zuerlein's contract is 2 years $8.4MM and his 2024 cap hit isn't going to be half that. Probably not super-backloaded (otherwise GZ is guaranteeing he'll be a cap cut after the year) but say it's about $3-3.5MM.
• Oliver shouldn't be much; he's a 4th CB on this team and his previous contracts were in the $3MM range before he just got cut.
• Officially Uzomah and his $8MM base salary haven't been cut yet from OTC's total (he's still on there), so the net is pretty close to swapping him for Clark + Zuerlein + Oliver. i.e. they still have about $20MM
• The rookie pool cap space they have to carry is probably $5MM or less with a #11 overall pick and no 2nd rounder.

First, even without cutting or restructuring anyone yet, the 1st year cap hit for the most expensive non-QB still would be doable.

• Say you're talking about an elite-player's $27MM/year (3 year $81MM) FA contract.
• First off, add 2 phony void years to turn it into a 5 year spread.
• 1st year cash = $27MM:
  • just under but ~$2MM in salary + workout bonuses + per game LTBE roster bonuses
    • all $2MM of this hits 2024's cap
  • plus $25MM in cash
    • hit is spread over 5 seasons, so only 1/5 of this ($5MM) hits 2024's cap
• Total cap hit for 2024 = $2MM + $5MM = $7MM. That's for a $27MM/year player they won't be targeting.

Douglas doesn't absolutely have to be this drastic in backloading, but the option is there to do it. Plus who's $27MM that the Jets are realistically targeting anyway? There's no elite young LT, they're not in the market for an elite young edge rusher nor interior DLman, nor an elite young WR1, nor an elite young CB. Who else is in or above - or even near - that range, other than starting QBs? 

Next, they have so many players they can backload (or backload with added void years, or outright cut) to lower the 2024 cap hits. They wouldn't need to do this with all of these guys, but any of them are doable to drop the base salary down to the veteran minimum plus 1/2 to 1/3 of the rest depending how many years they choose to spread out) as the team sees fit:

• $17MM salary for CJ Mosley
• $14.4MM salary for Quinnen Williams
• $13.3MM salary for Franklin-Myers
• $10.5MM salary for Reed
• $10MM salary for Lazard
• $6.3MM salary for Quincy Williams
• $6.1MM salary for Conklin

Therefore, without anyone taking on Zach Wilson's pay in a trade, that's $75-80MM of base salary above. Without cutting anybody, and without expensive extensions that lock the team into paying more for the player past 2024, they can clear half that amount with little to no difficulty (i.e. add $40MM in cap space).

Will they clear all that? I very much doubt it, as it's just not necessary because the y1 hit for new signings isn't tens of millions anyway unless they want it to be (it makes no difference if they restructure a few of these guys to backload their salaries more, or if they backload the new signings instead by the same amount). 

[MR.GANGGREEN28]

Usually we feel good about the off-season and have a terrible year. I’m down to give the opposite a shot.

[TuscanyTile2]

8 minutes ago, MR.GANGGREEN28 said:

Usually we feel good about the off-season and have a terrible year. I’m down to give the opposite a shot.

You don't want to attend the "offseason champs" banner raising ceremony?

[playtowinthegame]

6 minutes ago, MR.GANGGREEN28 said:

Usually we feel good about the off-season and have a terrible year. I’m down to give the opposite a shot.

 

Looks like we'll be quiet in free agency, which I hope means we'll do something special in the draft.

[TuscanyTile2]

11 hours ago, JoeNamathsFurCoat said:

 

That's exactly what they're looking for in today's game.  $40M per year player.

[SoJetsy]

If he doesn’t get Brisset it’s a fail!

[sciond]

all I want for Xmas is an OL or 2

[Darnold Schwarzenegger]

JD likes to nickel and dime players. He Sets his value and doesn’t want to overpay. Which makes him lose out on all the top players who actually have options. 

I’m not expecting any moves today.

[slimjasi]

13 hours ago, SackExchangeNYJ said:

Well, yes. There is also a segment whose only contribution to the discussion is to complain about the Jets. 

Gee,

I wonder why?!!!?

[DonCorleone]

On 3/9/2024 at 1:07 PM, section314 said:

I’m sure we will make our calls but what on God’s good earth could possibly be a selling point to come here? Not $, because in the past few years guys have signed elsewhere for less. This is a toxic organization around the league.

Joe Douglas has a large role in allowing it to become so toxic.

[k-met57]

On 3/10/2024 at 8:56 AM, oatmeal said:

If you consider playoffs and a first round exit winning fine. This team is not winning a SB (the only true win) 

r u serious? some of the greatest QB's ever have 0 SB wins. asinine statement.

[GangGreened]

Besides Jets organization, no one is optimistic about what they are building here at 1JD. It’s just not an attractive FA destination 

[bitonti]

4 hours ago, Darnold Schwarzenegger said:

JD likes to nickel and dime players. 

True except for Rodgers 

[Dcat]

21 hours ago, RJIII said:

I've lost all hope and faith in the organization. Need new ownership immediately, beating will continue until the culture changes. 

Until Woody hires a true Football guy to run this team, it's going to be a sh*t show.  He needs to stay away from the building, the players, and pretty much everything. For real... not pretending when he was in London visiting the Queen. 

[NYDreamer]

If Rosinni or Rosenblatt write a report how no Free agent Offensive lineman want to sign with the Jets because of Keith Carter.  That falls on JD and Selah.