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7 hours ago, WayneChrebet80 said:

THE DEFENSIVE SWITCH FROM 4-3 TO 3-4

With Todd Bowles coming in as the new Tampa Defensive Coordinator, the Bucs will be making the switch to a 3-4 defense. Nonetheless, Tampa’s defensive line recently saw a slight adjustment in who will be a part of this new look 3-4 defense. After a long offseason of speculation regarding the future of interior defender Gerald McCoy in Tampa Bay, the Bucs and McCoy decided to part ways. Less than 24 hours after McCoy and his $13 million 2019 cap hit left Tampa, the Bucs agreed to a 1-year deal with free agent interior defender Ndamukong Suh, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter. In regard to PFF wins above replacement (WAR), Suh ranked 15th among interior defenders in 2018, while McCoy ranked 25th. Over the length of their careers, Suh ranks fourth among interior defenders, while McCoy ranks ninth. Along with this, Suh has out-graded McCoy in three of the last four seasons. Because of this, Suh looks to be a marginal, if any, improvement over McCoy.

Prior to joining Wade Phillips’ 3-4 defense in Los Angeles in 2018, Suh almost exclusively lined up at defensive tackle. His 6,405 snaps at defensive tackle were the most by an interior defender since 2010 by over 827 snaps. With that said, Suh played out of his element with the Rams in 2018 playing 1-tech, 3-tech, or 5-tech at a near equal amount. In fact, Suh played more 0/1-tech in 2018 (329 snaps), than he did from 2010-2017 (246 snaps). Even with little experience playing at the nose tackle position, Suh showed to be one of the top interior defenders in 2018 when lined up at nose tackle as he had an 84.4 overall grade. When lined up at his natural position at defensive tackle in 2018, Suh recorded a solid 82.9 overall grade (381 snaps). When Suh was lined up at defensive end, however, his play faltered as he recorded a subpar 63.9 overall grade (324 snaps). Even though Suh was versatile for the Rams by playing up and down the line, it is best to keep at the 3-tech position.

Suh will be joining a promising interior defender in Vita Vea on the Bucs’ defensive line. Vea got off to a slow start in his rookie campaign in 2018 due to injuries, but he still managed to finish in 16th in pass-rush win rate at 12.8%, 13th in pass-rush grade at 75.4, and 18th in pressure rate at 10.2%. After getting a few healthy weeks under his belt, Vea was one of the top interior defender pass-rushers in the game. From weeks 12-17, Vea had the 5th highest pass-rush grade. Additionally, with Bowles bringing the 3-4 to Tampa, Vea will be able to go back to his dominant position at nose tackle. Vea played just 99 snaps at the 0/1-tech positions in 2018 but recorded the ninth highest pass-rush grade among interior defenders when lined up there. During his final collegiate season at Washington in 2017, Vea recorded the highest overall and pass-rush grade among all FBS interior defenders when lined up at 0/1-tech.

Outside of Suh and Vea though, there is a steep drop-off in defensive line play for the Bucs. With the switch, interior defenders Beau Allen (57.5 overall grade) and William Gholston (34.7 overall grade, last among all defensive interior) will have far more responsibility in this Bucs defense. Due to his experience playing the 5-tech position, Gholston is more likely to get more snaps than Allen in 2019. In his career when lined up at defensive end, Gholston has recorded a 58.9 over grade on 2,394 snaps.

As for their edge rushers, Tampa has drastically improved their 31st ranked pass-rush from 2018 this offseason with the additions of veteran Shaquil Barrett and rookie Anthony Nelson. Barrett, a free agent acquisition, has posted an overall grade among the top 25 of edge defenders in each of his four seasons. Nelson, a fourth-round pick in this year’s draft out of Iowa, was one of the more undervalued edge rushers in this class with the third highest pass-rush win rate at 23.5%.

DIALING UP CHAOS IN THE PASS-RUSH

 Tampa’s pass-rush was insipid in 2018, generating pressure at one of the lowest rates and sending a blitz at a below average rate of 26.4% (18th). With Bowles as Defensive Coordinator, this is bound to change. With the Jets from 2015-2018, Bowles’ defense finished with the 2nd highest blitz rate at 43.1%. When with Arizona in 2013-2014, Bowles’ defense had the highest blitz rate in the NFL by over 6% at 51.7%.

Bowles was also one of the league’s biggest stunt supporters. From 2016-2018, his defense with the Jets had the 3rd highest stunt rate at 35.0%. Further, Bowles often mixed stunts and blitzes together. In those three seasons, Bowles dialed up 261 stunt blitzes, the 5th most among defenses and recorded a respectable 48.7% pressure rate on those plays (12th). Tampa is familiar with the stunt, as they had a 33.7% stunt rate in 2018, but is unfamiliar to the stunt/blitz combos that Bowles covets. Last season, Tampa had just 43 stunt blitzes and recorded the 2nd worst pressure rate on those plays at 32.6%.

Though Bowles didn’t just stop there. During his time with Arizona and New York, Bowles was one of the heaviest users of cover-0. For the layman, cover-0 is also known as the zero blitz and is a man coverage scheme with no deep defenders and a heavy pass-rush. With Arizona, Bowles ran the third-most plays in cover-0 (51 from 2013-2014) and the second-most with the Jets (124 from 2015-2018, Patriots had the most with 125). Tampa ran cover-0 just 13 times in 2018, but that number is expected rise with Bowles on the Tampa staff. With the addition of linebacker Devin White in this year’s NFL draft, Tampa’s cover-0 success will only rise as he was one of the top off-ball linebackers in the pass-rush. Since 2017, White had recorded an absurd 70 pressures and 26.5% pass-rush win rate (both third among all CFB off-ball linebackers).

FROM ZONE TO PRESS-MAN COVERAGE

Bowles used man coverage at a high rate while with the Jets. His 39.3% man coverage usage rate with the Jets was the sixth highest among all defenses. This, however, is something Tampa swayed away from in 2018, as the Bucs had just a 26.7% man coverage usage rate (23rd). Furthermore, Buccaneers’ cornerback Vernon Hargreaves has been vocal about how excited he is to get back to playing his “natural” style of press coverage under the new regime. When looking at PFF data, one can understand why Hargreaves is happy to play more press coverage. On coverage snaps where he is in press coverage since 2017, Hargreaves ranks 36th among 130 cornerbacks’ in coverage grade and had posted an impressive 27.5% forced incompletion rate (fifth). On coverage snaps when he isn’t in press coverage, Hargreaves ranks 123rd among 125 cornerbacks’ in coverage grade.

In this year’s NFL Draft, the Bucs went and got themselves two of the top press corners in the class in Central Michigan’s Sean Murphy-Bunting and Auburn’s Jamel Dean. When in press coverage, Murphy-Bunting recorded the sixth best coverage grade at 88.7 and allowed 46 receptions on just 99 targets and a 43.7 passer rating. As for Dean in press coverage, he had the seventh-best coverage grade at 88.5 and allowed 27 receptions on 74 targets with 23 forced incompletions (third).

CONCLUSION

 With the addition of Bruce Arians and Todd Bowles, the Bucs are shaping up to be one of the most fascinating teams to watch in 2019. In fact, they are a staff favorite here at PFF:

The real "stunt" is that this fool is still coaching in the NFL.

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8 hours ago, WayneChrebet80 said:

THE DEFENSIVE SWITCH FROM 4-3 TO 3-4

With Todd Bowles coming in as the new Tampa Defensive Coordinator, the Bucs will be making the switch to a 3-4 defense. Nonetheless, Tampa’s defensive line recently saw a slight adjustment in who will be a part of this new look 3-4 defense. After a long offseason of speculation regarding the future of interior defender Gerald McCoy in Tampa Bay, the Bucs and McCoy decided to part ways. Less than 24 hours after McCoy and his $13 million 2019 cap hit left Tampa, the Bucs agreed to a 1-year deal with free agent interior defender Ndamukong Suh, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter. In regard to PFF wins above replacement (WAR), Suh ranked 15th among interior defenders in 2018, while McCoy ranked 25th. Over the length of their careers, Suh ranks fourth among interior defenders, while McCoy ranks ninth. Along with this, Suh has out-graded McCoy in three of the last four seasons. Because of this, Suh looks to be a marginal, if any, improvement over McCoy.

Prior to joining Wade Phillips’ 3-4 defense in Los Angeles in 2018, Suh almost exclusively lined up at defensive tackle. His 6,405 snaps at defensive tackle were the most by an interior defender since 2010 by over 827 snaps. With that said, Suh played out of his element with the Rams in 2018 playing 1-tech, 3-tech, or 5-tech at a near equal amount. In fact, Suh played more 0/1-tech in 2018 (329 snaps), than he did from 2010-2017 (246 snaps). Even with little experience playing at the nose tackle position, Suh showed to be one of the top interior defenders in 2018 when lined up at nose tackle as he had an 84.4 overall grade. When lined up at his natural position at defensive tackle in 2018, Suh recorded a solid 82.9 overall grade (381 snaps). When Suh was lined up at defensive end, however, his play faltered as he recorded a subpar 63.9 overall grade (324 snaps). Even though Suh was versatile for the Rams by playing up and down the line, it is best to keep at the 3-tech position.

Suh will be joining a promising interior defender in Vita Vea on the Bucs’ defensive line. Vea got off to a slow start in his rookie campaign in 2018 due to injuries, but he still managed to finish in 16th in pass-rush win rate at 12.8%, 13th in pass-rush grade at 75.4, and 18th in pressure rate at 10.2%. After getting a few healthy weeks under his belt, Vea was one of the top interior defender pass-rushers in the game. From weeks 12-17, Vea had the 5th highest pass-rush grade. Additionally, with Bowles bringing the 3-4 to Tampa, Vea will be able to go back to his dominant position at nose tackle. Vea played just 99 snaps at the 0/1-tech positions in 2018 but recorded the ninth highest pass-rush grade among interior defenders when lined up there. During his final collegiate season at Washington in 2017, Vea recorded the highest overall and pass-rush grade among all FBS interior defenders when lined up at 0/1-tech.

Outside of Suh and Vea though, there is a steep drop-off in defensive line play for the Bucs. With the switch, interior defenders Beau Allen (57.5 overall grade) and William Gholston (34.7 overall grade, last among all defensive interior) will have far more responsibility in this Bucs defense. Due to his experience playing the 5-tech position, Gholston is more likely to get more snaps than Allen in 2019. In his career when lined up at defensive end, Gholston has recorded a 58.9 over grade on 2,394 snaps.

As for their edge rushers, Tampa has drastically improved their 31st ranked pass-rush from 2018 this offseason with the additions of veteran Shaquil Barrett and rookie Anthony Nelson. Barrett, a free agent acquisition, has posted an overall grade among the top 25 of edge defenders in each of his four seasons. Nelson, a fourth-round pick in this year’s draft out of Iowa, was one of the more undervalued edge rushers in this class with the third highest pass-rush win rate at 23.5%.

DIALING UP CHAOS IN THE PASS-RUSH

 Tampa’s pass-rush was insipid in 2018, generating pressure at one of the lowest rates and sending a blitz at a below average rate of 26.4% (18th). With Bowles as Defensive Coordinator, this is bound to change. With the Jets from 2015-2018, Bowles’ defense finished with the 2nd highest blitz rate at 43.1%. When with Arizona in 2013-2014, Bowles’ defense had the highest blitz rate in the NFL by over 6% at 51.7%.

Bowles was also one of the league’s biggest stunt supporters. From 2016-2018, his defense with the Jets had the 3rd highest stunt rate at 35.0%. Further, Bowles often mixed stunts and blitzes together. In those three seasons, Bowles dialed up 261 stunt blitzes, the 5th most among defenses and recorded a respectable 48.7% pressure rate on those plays (12th). Tampa is familiar with the stunt, as they had a 33.7% stunt rate in 2018, but is unfamiliar to the stunt/blitz combos that Bowles covets. Last season, Tampa had just 43 stunt blitzes and recorded the 2nd worst pressure rate on those plays at 32.6%.

Though Bowles didn’t just stop there. During his time with Arizona and New York, Bowles was one of the heaviest users of cover-0. For the layman, cover-0 is also known as the zero blitz and is a man coverage scheme with no deep defenders and a heavy pass-rush. With Arizona, Bowles ran the third-most plays in cover-0 (51 from 2013-2014) and the second-most with the Jets (124 from 2015-2018, Patriots had the most with 125). Tampa ran cover-0 just 13 times in 2018, but that number is expected rise with Bowles on the Tampa staff. With the addition of linebacker Devin White in this year’s NFL draft, Tampa’s cover-0 success will only rise as he was one of the top off-ball linebackers in the pass-rush. Since 2017, White had recorded an absurd 70 pressures and 26.5% pass-rush win rate (both third among all CFB off-ball linebackers).

FROM ZONE TO PRESS-MAN COVERAGE

Bowles used man coverage at a high rate while with the Jets. His 39.3% man coverage usage rate with the Jets was the sixth highest among all defenses. This, however, is something Tampa swayed away from in 2018, as the Bucs had just a 26.7% man coverage usage rate (23rd). Furthermore, Buccaneers’ cornerback Vernon Hargreaves has been vocal about how excited he is to get back to playing his “natural” style of press coverage under the new regime. When looking at PFF data, one can understand why Hargreaves is happy to play more press coverage. On coverage snaps where he is in press coverage since 2017, Hargreaves ranks 36th among 130 cornerbacks’ in coverage grade and had posted an impressive 27.5% forced incompletion rate (fifth). On coverage snaps when he isn’t in press coverage, Hargreaves ranks 123rd among 125 cornerbacks’ in coverage grade.

In this year’s NFL Draft, the Bucs went and got themselves two of the top press corners in the class in Central Michigan’s Sean Murphy-Bunting and Auburn’s Jamel Dean. When in press coverage, Murphy-Bunting recorded the sixth best coverage grade at 88.7 and allowed 46 receptions on just 99 targets and a 43.7 passer rating. As for Dean in press coverage, he had the seventh-best coverage grade at 88.5 and allowed 27 receptions on 74 targets with 23 forced incompletions (third).

CONCLUSION

 With the addition of Bruce Arians and Todd Bowles, the Bucs are shaping up to be one of the most fascinating teams to watch in 2019. In fact, they are a staff favorite here at PFF:

And that is why PFF sucks.

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Weren't the bucs a breakout candidate last year?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/jameis-winston-has-pff’s-top-preseason-qb-grade-and-it’s-not-even-close/ar-BBMioeM

I remember PFF going nuts over Winston in the pre-season (especially because I thought Godwin was going to fully breakout in my dynasty league) and they ended up with a top 5 pick, and getting everyone fired.  

I don't know about Bowles, the DC, because I believe in the peter principle, as you get promoted until incompetence.  Bowles was incompetent as a head coach, but he should be OK as a DC.  His main issues weren't really play-calling, as much as the ability to coach up players.  Pretty much everyone stagnated with him.  Wilkerson/Sheldon went from enviable duo to outcasts.  Leo from one of the safest picks to someone that fans aren't even sure they want to resign.  I just didn't see him take talent and mold it into a great player, which is why I partially put the blame for Mccagnan's failures on Bowles as well.   However, as DC, he should be fine because Arians would be better at coaching up players.  

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41 minutes ago, NYJ1 said:

I suppose Bowles could be very good in Tampa? He was in over his head as a HC, but as a DC he has a pretty good track record. Perhaps he's found his niche?

Bowles was a bad HC, but I think he can still be an excellent DC. People forget, but there were a couple of games last year where he took over as DC when Kacy Rogers left because he had some sort of health scare. The defense played well in those games.

Once Kacy returned the breakdowns on defense weren't far behind.

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8 minutes ago, sourceworx said:

Bowles was a bad HC, but I think he can still be an excellent DC. People forget, but there were a couple of games last year where he took over as DC when Kacy Rogers left because he had some sort of health scare. The defense played well in those games.

Once Kacy returned the breakdowns on defense weren't far behind.

Kacy must have the tape of Honey Badger doggin’ Bowles’ daughter  

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Tampa Bay basically invented the modern NFL 4-3 Defense, and acquired and developed the players to play it.  They are going to throw it away for Bowles.

The 4-3 actually uses quicker, lighter players.  Don’t you think that is better in the Tampa Bay heat?

 

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50 minutes ago, varjet said:

Tampa Bay basically invented the modern NFL 4-3 Defense, and acquired and developed the players to play it.  They are going to throw it away for Bowles.

The 4-3 actually uses quicker, lighter players.  Don’t you think that is better in the Tampa Bay heat?

 

No Worries Bowles will answer all these questions at some point during the season. "We just  have to get better" 

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So getting Suh at the end of his career playing for a coach that doesn't motivate players should really work out fine. Suh is the ultimate mercanary moving from 1 place to the next. Bucs play the Saints, Falcons & Panthers. 

Good luck Bucs fans. Bad LB core, young CBs, Suh cashing checks, and a TO prone QB in Winston. With the 3rd pick in the 2020 NFL draft, The Tampa Bay Buccaneers select Safety .........

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