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You’re the GM: finishing touches to make this a championship team?


OtherwiseHappyinLife
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I’ve been wrong on plenty of things (Ulbrich, drafting Zach, the ‘cool shirt’ I recently purchased for a family trip)… but I started the year stating JD had done an excellent job stripping us bare in order to build a strong foundation for the long term.  My prediction was 8-9 wins.

We will likely exceed expectations because we NAILED the 2022 draft … a culmination of moves JD made in years past at the expense of some meaningless wins.

We’ll enjoy the rest of 2022 but with an eye on making this a championship caliber squad entering 2023.

Interested in your thoughts..  here are mine as a baseline.  Keep in mind that the Jets will be fairly tight against the cap.

————————————————

QB:  TBD but as long as White shows he is a great fit for this quick passing system, I re-sign him to a 1-3 year deal at an average starting QB salary.  Let Zach compete for the job in 2013 and re-up Streveler if you believe he has upside to assume the back-up spot

RB:  No action

WR:  Draft round 1 to give White another dynamic receiving option.  Waive the oft injured Davis ($10M we’ll need)

TE:  No action

OL:  Re-sign Herbig to start at center.  A warm Goodbye to McGovern, Fant & Feeney.  Draft a 4th tackle in middle rounds.  Draft Center in round 3 as backup to Herbig and as future starter when Herbig shifts back to guard and we let Tomlinson walk in 2024.  Re-sign LDT

Edge:  Waive Lawson ($15M we’ll need).  Sign Huff to a first round restricted tender @ ~$5M; we cannot lose him for anything less

DT:  Exercise 5th year option on Q; caution on doling out huge contract after 1 big year.  Upgrade the much improved but injury plagued Rankins (going back to his time with Saints).  Draft depth later rounds

LB:  Keep Mosley but ask for a pay cut from $17m salary to $10M.  Otherwise, numbers will likely not work given cap situation and desire not to push too many dollars to future years.  Re-sign Quincy (partly as leverage because he’s Quinnen’s brother).  If possible, bring back Kwon on a reasonable deal.  Draft MLB middle rounds to compete with Sherwood in 2024 when CJ is likely waived due to cost

CB:  No action

Safety:  Upgrade Joyner by drafting FS in round 2.  Draft SS depth later rounds

Shocked to even think this but this roster looks like it could make a deep run, contingent on White proving he’s the guy or otherwise acquiring a capable average starter that’s a system fit.

—————————————————————

QB:  White

WR1:  Wilson  (Pro Bowl potential)

WR2:  1st Round

Slot:  Moore/Berrios

RB1:  Breece  (All Pro potential)

RB2:  Carter or Knight

TE1:  Conklin

TE2:  Uzomah

LT:  Brown

LG:  Tomlinson

Center:  Herbig

RG:  AVT  (All Pro potential)

RT:  Mitchell

 

Edge:  JFM/Huff  (Huff 10+ sack potential)

DT:  Free Agent upgrade / JFM

DT:  Q  (All Pro Pro potential)

Edge:  Johnson/Clemons

LB:  CJ, Quincy Williams, Kwon or Sherwood

CB:  Sauce  (All Pro potential)

CB:  DJ  (Pro Bowl potential)

Slot:  Carter II

FS:  Round 2

SS:  Whitehead

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We need young guns on the OL... Line has played well, but would love a line that could play together for say the next 3-5 years all on rookie contracts... We're going to have to pay AVT, so letting go of VET salaries is a must going forward. We've got a lot of skill position now, so draft heavy OL, and give me another decent max potential LB, CB, and DL. If we can find another Clements type but heavier to play on the inside with QW, that would be awesome.

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We need an upgrade in the middle of the defense at all 3 tiers. A DT next to quinnen, a young athletic LB, and a rangy free safety.

On offense, everything hinges on the qb and how mike white looks the rest of the games. I can't see them drafting anyone next year but the caliber of qb they go after in the off season greatly depends on white and how they feel zach is progressing. Beyond that, I think the rest of the offense is fine but you have to figure out the starting oline. Fant is gone and Becton is unreliable. Brown had been good but he's most likely going to need shoulder surgery in off season so he may not be ready for start of next season. McGovern is a FA I believe? Lot of questions on this oline...

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Great question.  And it brings up another question.

The Jets roster is already impressive and it is young.  That bodes very well for the future.  JD can now draft the best player available.  BUT...

What to do abut the QB situation ??? This is *everything* because the QB is everything.  I cant say which team will win the Super Bowl this year, but I can say it will be a team with one of the "special" QBs.  Josh Allen, Mahommes, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Lamar J, Brady, etc... 

Given that, the OP's exercise can be boiled down to what do do about the QB.  The rest is just gravy on the meat. 

1. Bring in a vet like Jimmy G. or Carr.  And if you go that way, which one ???  I much prefer Jimmy G. over Carr. 

2. Draft a QB.  And if you go that way, which one ??? The Jets wont be drafting in the top ten, so a big decision has to be made on which prospect other than Bryce Young, CJ Stroud or Will Levis the Jets will go for as those three will be gone by the time the Jets pick in round 1.  Perhaps they can go for Stanford's  Tanner McKee. From what I have seen, he is the best of the "others" and may actually turn out to be a "special" NFL QB.   Big arm combined with great touch on the ball and sees the entire filed. 

My feeling is that until you are sure you have your QB, you keep looking for one.  

I'd love to see JD go with a "bargain" vet and also draft McKee. 

As far as Zach Wilson... keep him one more season and see if he can be "trained"

As far as Mike White.  Keep him as a third string guy.  You'll see why I say "third string" during the Beefalo game. 

So... That's my take.  Get a solid but affordable vet QB in place and draft McKee or perhaps other QB prospect with NFL abilities. 

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Another tackle. Becton can't be counted on and Brown is near the end of his career. 

The Jets also might need a center as McGovern is an FA. I would re-sign him.

It's not a premium position but I wouldn't mind a ball hawking safety. With our pass rush I'd love to have a playmaker at the free safety spot.

I need to see more from Mike White this season before determining whether or not the Jets need a QB next season or not. White has a chance to earn the job going forward.

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The wish lists are great but you need to find the money to make it work.  Zach’s entire contract is guaranteed so it’s not coming from there.

As it stands, we have roughly $15M cap space if you discount OvertheCap’s $17M estimate since their 2023 starting pool estimate is higher than Spotrac & PFF.

Deduct roughly $8 for our rookie pool.  That gives us $7M of cap space to work with.  That’s not even enough to re-sign Mike White if he is the guy let alone Minshew or other favorites.

The 2 best recent examples of short term starting QB deals are the $10M per year for Mariota and the $14M for Winston.

The simple fact is we need money from somewhere because draft picks alone won’t replace the talent that is or otherwise would be leaving via free agency.

JD is financially disciplined and does not seem to be a guy to do a lot of restructuring, CJ aside.

1. The 2022 cap hit for a low to mid 20s draft slot was roughly $2.5M = $7.5M less than Corey Davis is slated to count.  We can cut hit with little future dead cap space.

2. We drafted Jermaine Johnson to be a starting Edge and with Huff taking off and Clemon’s development, Carl Lawson would save us $15M.

My analysis has us paying the following players (all new money added to the current cap):

1. Mike White 1 year deal at $10M

2. Herbig at roughly $7M

3. Upgrade to Rankins at around $8M

4. Quincy Williams at $8M

5. Bryce Huff at $5M

6. Kwon at $3M

7. LDT at $2M

TOTAL = $43M

 

Lawson, Davis and the projected net pool get us $32M.  That is a delta of $11M.

It is therefore that I conclude that the Jets cannot afford CJ Mosley at $17M salary.  They also might not be able to afford Kwon and LDT, which is where Sherwood and the draft come in.

 

 

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43 minutes ago, THE BARON said:

As far as Mike White.  Keep him as a third string guy.  You'll see why I say "third string" during the Beefalo game. 

if he plays well the rest of the year hes going to cost 30 mil a year. just look at Jimmy G. same path. 

if he plays well and we go to the playoffs i keep him as QB 1

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OL, QB in that order. Even if we somehow land a great qb, even the great ones can’t do much with a weak OL. We had a very good OL in 09/10. With ran down teams throats with ease, with average RBs. They really helped the horrible sanchez look decent at times. The D was top of league then, like they are now. We likely win Super Bowl 1 of those two yrs we made to afc championship games back to back, if we had a above average qb. Farve caught lightning in bottle and had mvp caliber yr in 09 for Vikings, too bad couldn’t keep him 1 more yr.

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9 minutes ago, Jetsplayer21 said:

OL, QB in that order. Even if we somehow land a great qb, even the great ones can’t do much with a weak OL. We had a very good OL in 09/10. With ran down teams throats with ease, with average RBs. They really helped the horrible sanchez look decent at times. The D was top of league then, like they are now. We likely win Super Bowl 1 of those two yrs we made to afc championship games back to back, if we had a above average qb. Farve caught lightning in bottle and had mvp caliber yr in 09 for Vikings, too bad couldn’t keep him 1 more yr.

I always say if we had Favre in 09/10, we likely win at least 1 super bowl in one of those years. Sad. 

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15 minutes ago, doitny said:

if he plays well the rest of the year hes going to cost 30 mil a year. just look at Jimmy G. same path. 

if he plays well and we go to the playoffs i keep him as QB 1

A Cinderella story would be nice, but MFW is a limited player.  Jets fans have been saddled with such awful QB play for so long and with one failed 1st round QB pick after another, we'll latch on to anyone that can complete a screen pass.

Not looking to spoil anyone's good time , but MFW is not franchise QB.   

Let's discuss further after the BEEFALO game. 

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We’re set at the offensive skill positions. Another playmaker is not moving the needle. We are set at CB as well. 

It’s a bit early. So, not sure. We don’t even know what Mike White is. One thing I would do is continue to invest in the OL and DL. I would also like us to bring back a lot of our guys. These guys are building a great culture. Let’s keep the guys that are good and have the right attitude.

TBD on QB.

But Im not really worried about this now. I trust Saleh and Douglas. Plus, we are in the mix right now. What if we catch fire and win it this year?

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8 minutes ago, GreenFish said:

We’re set at the offensive skill positions. Another playmaker is not moving the needle. We are set at CB as well. 

It’s a bit early. So, not sure. We don’t even know what Mike White is. One thing I would do is continue to invest in the OL and DL. I would also like us to bring back a lot of our guys. These guys are building a great culture. Let’s keep the guys that are good and have the right attitude.

TBD on QB.

But Im not really worried about this now. I trust Saleh and Douglas. Plus, we are in the mix right now. What if we catch fire and win it this year?

It is exciting to think about your last scenario.  It feels like such a foreign concept but this team has some talent to make a run.

Who would have thought entering this year, we’d have so many elite players?  It’s been such a dry spell and now I look at Sauce, Wilson, Quinnen and the biggest surprise Bryce Huff

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I would love to see Michael Mayer in a Jet uniform. A true blue chip talent at the TE position. Not sure he'll be there in the 20's though...

This team is a quarterback away and all of our stars outside of QW are on rookie contracts / team friendly deals (DJ Reed!). I want to see big swings in free agency / trades and I would love to see a big move at QB if Mike White doesn't pan out. This off-season is the time to pad the roster and try to put us over the top

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40 minutes ago, THE BARON said:

A Cinderella story would be nice, but MFW is a limited player.  Jets fans have been saddled with such awful QB play for so long and with one failed 1st round QB pick after another, we'll latch on to anyone that can complete a screen pass.

Not looking to spoil anyone's good time , but MFW is not franchise QB.   

Let's discuss further after the BEEFALO game. 

Guess what? With the way this team is structured, we don't need Mike White to necessarily be an elite/franchise QB. Just better than Zach Wilson and that type of QB play. 

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1 hour ago, THE BARON said:

The Jets roster is already impressive and it is young.  That bodes very well for the future.  JD can now draft the best player available.  BUT...

What to do abut the QB situation ??? This is *everything* because the QB is everything.  I cant say which team will win the Super Bowl this year, but I can say it will be a team with one of the "special" QBs.  Josh Allen, Mahommes, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Lamar J, Brady, etc... 

 

I not so sure about that. Jimmy G, Hurts, and Dak have great chances to win a Super Bowl this year with their defenses and strong running game.

Allen is beatable and has shown some chinks in the armor, Burrows line still sucks, Pat Maholmes has had way better teams than this years, Justin Herbert hasn't even been to the playoffs yet and his coach stinks, Brady has no line and a shell of a running game... 

Point being I think this year is a complete toss up for Super Bowl favorite. 

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9 minutes ago, BigRy56 said:

I would love to see Michael Mayer in a Jet uniform. A true blue chip talent at the TE position. Not sure he'll be there in the 20's though...

This team is a quarterback away and all of our stars outside of QW are on rookie contracts / team friendly deals (DJ Reed!). I want to see big swings in free agency / trades and I would love to see a big move at QB if Mike White doesn't pan out. This off-season is the time to pad the roster and try to put us over the top

Would love Mayer in a Jet uniform. Or maybe the Georgia TE Brock Bowers, since we overhauled the position just last year.

 

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Mike white will be unrestricted FA, could be interesting to keep him if he keeps playing like this. He and his agent could play hardball and try to get franchise tag, his contract would have to then at least equal the guaranteed money from franchise tag.

With WR cost nowadays I agree with WR every draft. Not sure I would do round one as OL is a big need.

Fant will not be resigned freeing up 9mil.

Not sure if Mims has shown enough to replace Corey Davis

Quninnen’s option has already been picked up. Maybe sign him to extension to free up cap space?

Need a safety, preferably via draft.

Team is deep enough that I would stay away from big FA signings and start playing the comp pick game like Baltimore.

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1) Sideline to sideline Middle Linebacker (round 1). Our top need.

2) Edge rusher -or- D-Tackle, whichever one is better in the 2nd round.

3) Oline.......lots and lots of Oline. Center & Tackle. 

Later rounds) Developmental free safety/DB, Nickle/Dime DB, Kicker. Maybe another dart at a TE/6th lineman.

Drafting in the 20's, I'd probably trade out of the 1st round if possible, pick up an extra 3rd or 4th. We already have too many first round players that will be very difficult to re-sign. May be time to look to xtra mid round picks that won't break the bank going forwards.

It will be interesting to see if JoeD can manage a mature roster as good as he's built up this one from the ashes. This requires a whole different set of GM skills, but my money is on JD to become a top GM that keeps the team together and doesn't mortgage a huge chunk of our future for a WIN NOW!!! gamble (I'm looking at your Mike Tannenbaum)

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Sign/extend our players prudently.  Best available draft picks.  Maneuver in draft for “hidden value” if possible using demonstrated skill.  Obtain addition assets for surplus talent if possible.  We don’t need to over think this.  

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2 hours ago, Maxman said:

1st round wide receiver next year? I don't see that happening. With the wide out free agency market being what it is, I think there is a good chance Corey Davis comes back next year his salary # isn't looking that bad anymore.

Mosley isn't taking a pay cut without an extension but either way he needs to be back.

I think that 1st round pick might be on the offensive line.

Good break down!

Interesting. I feel like Mosley has been vastly overrated and would be happy to spend good draft capital on his replacement. 

Hell, as much as I love Kwon (and I mean, serious love for him), and I've taken a liking to Quincy too - I don't see either of them being able to replicate this year's success next year or into the future. I think our LBs are due for an overhaul in the next two offseasons. 

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36 minutes ago, Jetsfan4life90 said:

Guess what? With the way this team is structured, we don't need Mike White to necessarily be an elite/franchise QB. Just better than Zach Wilson and that type of QB play. 

I dig... But if JD can swing something much better in the off season, I say go go go. 

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