Do we have enough evidence to trust, or not trust JD?

[nycdan]

13 minutes ago, joewilly12 said:

What choice do we have.

This is what Texans fans are saying now.  For them, becoming Jet fans would be a gigantic step up.  Let that sink in for a moment

 

[Jets Voice of Reason]

1 hour ago, ljr said:

waayyyyyy too early to say

for the next 4 years he can lock himself in his office, dress up as Barney the purple dinosaur, play and dance around to the Y-M-C-A song on repeat over and over again, and j*rk-off all day to photos of barnyard animals and he'd still be better than the last 2 $h*theads we've had ... so that is good.

---

His maneuvering before, during, & after the draft is excellent.  He seems to be in charge and implementing his plans rather than just letting the draft board fall where it may to him.

His moves with Mims looked like he had several players in mind with equal/close value and was willing to group target rather than just go after 1 player

He punched a "from the ground up" total rebuild on his timecard to start his tenure which we needed

He seems to have "big picture" foresight in attempting to build a team, not just grabbing shiny new pieces and sticking them on his roster.

Becton has been a huge success at a huge need position

He looks to have planned ahead with Jamal in drafting his replacement ... then the value he was able to get in that trade was outstanding.

His working the payroll has been outstanding in positioning up for moves from here on.

His (and Christopher) getting Saleh at HC was a big win

---

However

He failed to support Darnold last year

The Fant contract was a mistake, an over-reaction to missing out on his first 2 choices at OL

Letting Robbie go (I admit to being against overpaying him at that time) was a mistake

Not doubling-down on WR in rounds 3-5 was a mistake.  Going backup QB seems to be a luxury pick that we were not in a position to do yet

Not having better help on the interior line was a whiff

As of now,

Other than Becton, we are yet to see enough from his picks to know if they were successful or not

We are yet to see the new pieces he bring onto the roster through free-agency and other teams cutdowns.

---

so in sum

we are wayyyyy too early to say good or bad

This sums it up pretty nicely.

Good: Adams deal, Becton looks like a building block, solid coach hiring process, maneuvering in the draft, disciplined with value, actually prioritized athleticism in the draft.

Bad: I think his FA foray last offseason was pretty poor to mediocre overall. GVR, Mcgovern, and Fant were uneven at best last season. He misjudged Robbie's value. He took a lot of injury risks in the draft, which is risky for a rebuilding team. Could pan out, but remains to be seen.

This offseason is pivotal.

 

 

[freestater]

the o-line troubles are concerning, but I will say that in a terrible offseason, with virtual TC and no preseason, these guys never even got a chance to gel. As the season progressed, they did improve. I still think we need an IOL early in the draft, unless we can land a guy like Thuney. So far, JD looks more capable than our last two GMs, but that bar isn't very high. He traded away a problem for two 1sts and a 3rd. Let's see what he does with them. His coaching hire looks solid. He has a ton of cap space. He has a team, a fanbase, and hopefully an ownership tired of all the losing. He needs to start showing early returns in 2021. 

[Ian Fleming]

46 minutes ago, jbt said:

 

While were at it, this Saleh guy has not done sh*t...

 

Literally nothing! What are they waiting for?

[BettyBoop]

George Young’s first few drafts were nothing to write home about.  Like Douglas, he inherited a terrible team in a terrible situation.  It wasn’t until Ray Perkins left and he hired Parcells that it started coming together.

As for his first draft, that was a terrible set of circumstances and we should view Mims, Clarke, Davis and Zuniga as rookies who should contribute this year.

I’m hoping Douglas and Saleh are our Young and Parcells.

[section314]

15 minutes ago, BettyBoop said:

George Young’s first few drafts were nothing to write home about.  Like Douglas, he inherited a terrible team in a terrible situation.  It wasn’t until Ray Perkins left and he hired Parcells that it started coming together.

As for his first draft, that was a terrible set of circumstances and we should view Mims, Clarke, Davis and Zuniga as rookies who should contribute this year.

I’m hoping Douglas and Saleh are our Young and Parcells.

Might want to rethink this one.  79......Phil Simms and Earnest Gray. 80...Mark Haynes and Scott Brunner   81...Bill Neil, Billy Ard, Bryron Hunt and some guy named Lawrence Taylor. Got the FQB and one of the two best defensive players ever in his first 3 years, guys who led them to Super Bowl wins and a run of greatness most teams will never see.

[68JET11]

1 hour ago, nycdan said:

For too many members, the answer to this question will be solely defined by "did he do what I want with the #2 pick?".  Nothing he does beyond that will change that opinion.  So leaving Watson aside for the moment, we are probably divided into 3 camps: "Wilson, Fields or Trade Down and Roll with Sam".  So no matter what he does, more than half of this community will think he's an idiot.

 

Here's my take on the Sam situation... He'll be killed if he keeps him here, and he doesn't do well, but on the other hand how will that side of the fanbase feel if he excels under LaFleur. I'm not saying that's going to be the case, but it's not just JD helping to make that decision. What if both Saleh and LaFleur both agree that they can salvage him, are we blaming JD for not trading him ?  Doesn't make too much sense.

[Sperm Edwards]

3 hours ago, HawkeyeJet said:

Has he given you any reason to not trust him?

You mean other than:

• 90% of his veteran acquisitions being between below average and abject failures (look at the list and you'll see, and I'm not counting camp fodder);
• The two most prominent non-acquisitions would have been better than the players he chose instead;
• With 5/5 of the Jets' 2019 starting OL hitting FA (Beachum, Lewis, Harrison, Shell) or on the chopping block (Winters), the only obvious long-term homerun in the 2020 draft was a 50-50 choice between two homers - Beachum & Wirfs - where the only possible bad move was ignoring the position again outright, Maccagnan-style.

Without looking at the players the team then got instead, the trade record on paper is excellent:

1. Moving Leo Williams to get the Giants' 2020 3rd and 2021 5th, knowing he wasn't tagging or extending him; yes he ate most of Leo's remaining, but absent a trade the Jets were on the hook for all of it anyway;
2. Trading down in round 2 and still getting a player considered a good pick before trading down;
3. the Adams trade: Adams plus a 2022 4th for Seattle's 2021 and 2022 1sts + 2021 3rd + McDougald ($4MM);
4. making every effort to trade Bell (not his fault there was no market for him), and then releasing him outright before a 3rd, injury-guaranteed season could kick in;
5. trading McLendon & a 2023 7th for a 2022 6th; like with Leo: the season was over and the player wasn't getting extended anyway. This getting something for nothing was a concept his predecessor never grasped;
6. getting Williamson to agree to a pay cut this summer; then (same motivation as above) trading Williamson & a 2022 7th for a 2022 5th;
7. the bad one: sitting at 1-6 he turned down a 4th rounder for 9 more games of Robby Anderson without getting a post-2019 extension worked out (which would've been cheaper at the time, seeing how RA's numbers were then way down). Then after losing RA in FA by lowballing his offer, adding UFA Perriman as a replacement further erased another 4th round (comp) pick that losing Anderson would have netted. Not the biggest deal in the world, but just to illustrate he's not batting 1.000 on trades.

If his Perine pick was Gabe Davis, so Mims turned into Mims + Davis (instead of Mims + Perine + Clark) then I'd be further along on the "trust" scale when it comes to which player he's chosen to draft. Further, that his only QB pick has so far been no higher on a suspect Jets depth chart than Christian Hackenberg also doesn't immediately scream benefit of the doubt at assessing QB draft prospects. 

Just being not-Maccagnan is a major, major upgrade. That doesn't therefore mean (to me) anything he does is deserving of trust by default. There's a reason people repeat the sentiment that trust should be earned and not just given.

I like that Douglas is well-regarded around the league. I like that he doesn't get so hyped up on one prospect that he's blinded to other, and perhaps better, opportunities (compare his 2020 round 2 to Maccagnan's 2016 round 2). I like that he doesn't usually hold onto players with expiring contracts in October when the team's all but mathematically eliminated. I also like that Saleh is similarly well-regarded (though no more so than Bowles on the day he was hired here), on paper seems all-around awesome, and allegedly his interview/conversation with Douglas is what swayed him to choose the Jets. I'd say I am looking forward to the next Jets chapter with hope, rather than necessarily having a specific trust in Douglas.

Having some hope is already more than there's been in about a decade, so there's that. But that's still not trust. Not yet.

[Biggs]

The blood splatter from last season is still being analyzed for DNA.  We can say with certainty that there was foul play surrounding the death of last years team.  So far the usual suspects Gase and Darnold have been rounded up.  Gase was already found guilty, sentenced and executed.  The jury is still out on Darnold.  It appears that Douglas's DNA was nowhere to be found and he was fully acquitted.  

[Maxman]

There is nobody else in the organization to trust.

That is all we need to know. Go Joe D!

[68JET11]

1 hour ago, RVAJet815 said:

I mean...yeah that’s fair. ?

Personally, I’m a big fan of the Wilson pick. But, if he trades down once or twice, drafts Lance and signs a vet, that might be a savvy call too. 

This allows what I think is a lost art in the NFL... Letting your QB sit for a year before you actually throw them to the wolves... I'd be more than happy to trade back and select Lance in like pick 8 while using a VET to start and let Lance soak up the knowledge and teachings from our new offensive staff.

[Warfish]

Quote

Do we have enough evidence to trust, or not trust JD?

I would say no, we do not.  

So far his veteran/FA moves have mostly been average to poor.

So far his drafts have also been average to poor to-date.

Hiring Saleh seems quite good (of course, hasn't coached a down yet, in fairness).

He's very well respected, and that counts for something.

Gase is now gone and he no longer shares power with the Coach, he is above the Coach, which also counts for something.

But no, in terms of player and draft decisions, he absolutely has not earned my trust as yet.

But it's early, and we'll see. 

He needs a very good draft, and he needs last year's draft class to show up and play much more than they have so far, and he needs to spend a goodly portion of our cap space on meaningful, impact veterans.

We'll see if he does.

[Sperm Edwards]

17 minutes ago, Maxman said:

There is nobody else in the organization to trust.

That is all we need to know. Go Joe D!

You also trusted me to moderate here

[Jetsfan80]

2 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

You also trusted me to moderate here

He also thought Herm Edwards would win a Super Bowl as Jets HC.  

[Sperm Edwards]

4 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

He also thought Herm Edwards would win a Super Bowl as Jets HC.  

He knows how to generate site traffic and interest. Gotta respect it.

[HawkeyeJet]

53 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

You mean other than:

• 90% of his veteran acquisitions being between below average and abject failures (look at the list and you'll see, and I'm not counting camp fodder);
• The two most prominent non-acquisitions would have been better than the players he chose instead;
• With 5/5 of the Jets' 2019 starting OL hitting FA (Beachum, Lewis, Harrison, Shell) or on the chopping block (Winters), the only obvious long-term homerun in the 2020 draft was a 50-50 choice between two homers - Beachum & Wirfs - where the only possible bad move was ignoring the position again outright, Maccagnan-style.

Without looking at the players the team then got instead, the trade record on paper is excellent:

1. Moving Leo Williams to get the Giants' 2020 3rd and 2021 5th, knowing he wasn't tagging or extending him; yes he ate most of Leo's remaining, but absent a trade the Jets were on the hook for all of it anyway;
2. Trading down in round 2 and still getting a player considered a good pick before trading down;
3. the Adams trade: Adams plus a 2022 4th for Seattle's 2021 and 2022 1sts + 2021 3rd + McDougald ($4MM);
4. making every effort to trade Bell (not his fault there was no market for him), and then releasing him outright before a 3rd, injury-guaranteed season could kick in;
5. trading McLendon & a 2023 7th for a 2022 6th; like with Leo: the season was over and the player wasn't getting extended anyway. This getting something for nothing was a concept his predecessor never grasped;
6. getting Williamson to agree to a pay cut this summer; then (same motivation as above) trading Williamson & a 2022 7th for a 2022 5th;
7. the bad one: sitting at 1-6 he turned down a 4th rounder for 9 more games of Robby Anderson without getting a post-2019 extension worked out (which would've been cheaper at the time, seeing how RA's numbers were then way down). Then after losing RA in FA by lowballing his offer, adding UFA Perriman as a replacement further erased another 4th round (comp) pick that losing Anderson would have netted. Not the biggest deal in the world, but just to illustrate he's not batting 1.000 on trades.

If his Perine pick was Gabe Davis, so Mims turned into Mims + Davis (instead of Mims + Perine + Clark) then I'd be further along on the "trust" scale when it comes to which player he's chosen to draft. Further, that his only QB pick has so far been no higher on a suspect Jets depth chart than Christian Hackenberg also doesn't immediately scream benefit of the doubt at assessing QB draft prospects. 

Just being not-Maccagnan is a major, major upgrade. That doesn't therefore mean (to me) anything he does is deserving of trust by default. There's a reason people repeat the sentiment that trust should be earned and not just given.

I like that Douglas is well-regarded around the league. I like that he doesn't get so hyped up on one prospect that he's blinded to other, and perhaps better, opportunities (compare his 2020 round 2 to Maccagnan's 2016 round 2). I like that he doesn't usually hold onto players with expiring contracts in October when the team's all but mathematically eliminated. I also like that Saleh is similarly well-regarded (though no more so than Bowles on the day he was hired here), on paper seems all-around awesome, and allegedly his interview/conversation with Douglas is what swayed him to choose the Jets. I'd say I am looking forward to the next Jets chapter with hope, rather than necessarily having a specific trust in Douglas.

Having some hope is already more than there's been in about a decade, so there's that. But that's still not trust. Not yet.

 

Some people will trust until something makes them not trust 

Others will not trust until given a reason to do so.

It doesn't really matter if any fan trusts or doesn't trust him, was my overall point.

[peebag]

1 hour ago, section314 said:

Might want to rethink this one.  79......Phil Simms and Earnest Gray. 80...Mark Haynes and Scott Brunner   81...Bill Neil, Billy Ard, Bryron Hunt and some guy named Lawrence Taylor. Got the FQB and one of the two best defensive players ever in his first 3 years, guys who led them to Super Bowl wins and a run of greatness most teams will never see.

Also, Perkins led them to their first playoff win since 1956

[DepressedJetsFan23]

What is weird about judging JD that we have to keep in mind is how bad our standards are as jets fans. Like what do we consider success? Winning the division two times in six years with a floor being 7-9 and a ceiling of 11-5? Winning a playoff game? hitting on a late round pick? I am not trying to be annoying it is a curiosity question. My standards for success are so bad right now.

[RutgersJetFan]

I don't think there is evidence to be too certain either way. The Adams trade was amazing but it's also worth noting that all parties leading up to it let that situation get out of hand. Becton looks good but as of now Wirfs looks like the guy, maybe that changes. The D Thomas trade was bad but the 2022 draft late round upgrades will probably lead to some sort of decent trade into the mid rounds next Spring. Firing Gase was fine but I don't understand the point of letting him finish out the season if they had made that decision a month prior. If winning 2 of their last 3 wasn't going to help him keep his job then why not just fire the guy and help ensure Lawrence? 

I dunno. Some good some bad. It's still a roster full of tomato cans. Hopefully that changes but with Woody back in the mix it's hard to fathom he won't stick his beak into things eventually.

[jetstream23]

Positives: Fiscal management of the Cap, well-compensated in the Jamal Adams trade, strong 1st and 2nd round picks (including the trade down for Mims). Essentially, I think he balances both quality and value fairly well (with some exceptions below).

Negatives: Paid a lot in FA to upgrade the OLine to barely average, mismanaged the WR position in FA (saving money but not not improving the position much or at all) and didn’t get a second WR in the Draft, big questions about every pick from Rounds 3 and 4 (5 players), a 24 month search for a consistent Kicker.

Mixed bag of results. But to the question of this thread, do I trust JD? Yes I do, or I should say I at least trust him more than our past two GMs for sure. 

[chad2coles]

No, there's not enough evidence to trust Douglas or to not trust Douglas.

He's had 1 draft where the his top pick was at a premium position and had the best rookie year since 2013.  Taking away from that by saying that Wirfs has just as good a season surrounded by much more talent on the o-line at a much easier and less valuable position doesn't make sense.  Most of his draft picks missed large parts of the season because of injury.  There's no way to say he missed on guys like Mims, Hall, Clark, Zuniga, or Davis.

Getting the most value possible out of Jamal Adams was a huge win for Douglas.  The draft picks he got back could have a huge impact on the franchise for the next 10 years.

He brought in one of the highest sought after coaching candidates available this year, which could also have a huge impact on the team for the next 10 years.

Not signing Robbie Anderson, or not getting pro bowl seasons out of the 1 year contracts he gave out to offensive linemen are not problems that will negatively impact the Jets long term.

He cleared the deck last year.  This is the offseason he will be judged on.

[jeremy2020]

5 hours ago, Jet Nut said:

Just like in your mind what I may or may not have said before makes what I just said wrong?  

Especially since I didnt have a strong opinion about Macc-Gase or really cared one way or another

Stick the guaranteed thumb you know where 

Yes, what a wonderful world where a history of being wrong most of the time means nothing and shouldn't inform the present. 

[BettyBoop]

4 hours ago, section314 said:

Might want to rethink this one.  79......Phil Simms and Earnest Gray. 80...Mark Haynes and Scott Brunner   81...Bill Neil, Billy Ard, Bryron Hunt and some guy named Lawrence Taylor. Got the FQB and one of the two best defensive players ever in his first 3 years, guys who led them to Super Bowl wins and a run of greatness most teams will never see.

But they didn’t contribute for a few years.  Simms’ first two year were meh.  More int’s than TD’s.  Gray didn’t produce much until ‘83.  He had fewer than 30 receptions in three of his first four years.  

I’m hoping that’s what happens with last years draft class.

[32EBoozer]

7 hours ago, oatmeal said:

I know to some this may seem odd but for me I will know what Joe Douglas is and if he’s trust worthy or not, depending on what happens with this QB situation. The fact that Sam and Joe share the same agent is very questionable to me. Just my 2 centz 

I don't think JD includes his agednt on any FA, draft or football related decisions. Just as I doubt Saleh does so with his agent. There are plenty of agents who would love to represent these guys, so I'm sure the agents try to handle only contract negotiations. Unless you're Scott Boras

[ScarletKnight89]

I think this will be the off season for me where I decide if I trust him or not.

[Matt39]

3 hours ago, DepressedJetsFan23 said:

What is weird about judging JD that we have to keep in mind is how bad our standards are as jets fans. Like what do we consider success? Winning the division two times in six years with a floor being 7-9 and a ceiling of 11-5? Winning a playoff game? hitting on a late round pick? I am not trying to be annoying it is a curiosity question. My standards for success are so bad right now.

Up your standards then. I thought overall the draft was disappointing. The highlight was Becton who still has some flags that he needs to prove won’t follow him throughout his career. Mims barely played. The Jets needed an immediate hit in the draft and they didn’t get it. If this draft gets similar production as last years then the Jets will be picking top 5 again.

[Jethead]

He didn't win rookie of the year.

He appears to have a plan and is working it.

So....yes.

[doitny]

its all about the QB. this will make or break JD. 

[undertow]

12 hours ago, Samtorobby47 said:

I trust him....for now. Hasn't been perfect obviously but just certain things make me feel like he can steer this in the right direction. 

-He prioritizes the OL. Believes it starts in the trenches.

-Willing to admit his mistakes and do so publicly (see Robby Anderson)

-Keeps an open mind and doesn't just stick to his inner circle. (see hiring Saleh)

-Values future assets in building the team (Jamal trade)

-Able to work the draft board with trades (Mims) this may have been some luck as well, but ya know what, that's part of the draft. 

-So far, hasn't F'd up the cap situation. 

Free agency is the only thing that's left a lot to be desired but his first go at it was during a pandemic with unknowns surrounding the cap situation. This offseason should tell us a lot. 

Passing on Claypool to take Mims I wouldn't point out as being a smart move....not to mention he used that extra capital to take a practice squad QB.   Way to work the draft board. lol

[Lizard King]

He doesn’t seem to get totally bent over in contract negotiations and can trade pretty well with other front offices, so he’s got that going for him. Landed Saleh which was impressive. He certainly knows how to negotiate well. I’d like to see him turn over the scouting department and I would beg him to get a big receiver 

[NIGHT STALKER]

Nope...I don't trust anyone in this organization until we start being competitive, going to playoffs and making some noise.  Not until the Jets lose that title of laughing stock...nope.  This team has never built anything worth talking about through the draft and this draft could very well make or break Joe Douglas.  Choose your players wisely Joe, your're on the clock!

[batman10023]

14 hours ago, ljr said:

 

imo, this seems silly.  

his choices at HC and QB are the 2 pieces that most likely with determine whether JD is a success or failure

tossing an extra 2% into his agents pockets is irrelevant 

Bingo.  It’s a dumb argument that the poster made before. 
 

you going to blow up your career for your agent?  After you sign a six year deal his next contract will be based on performance. 
 

and the dollar amounts are small. 2 percent of 5mm is 100k.  Not a big deal in big picture. 

[batman10023]

7 hours ago, 32EBoozer said:

I don't think JD includes his agednt on any FA, draft or football related decisions. Just as I doubt Saleh does so with his agent. There are plenty of agents who would love to represent these guys, so I'm sure the agents try to handle only contract negotiations. Unless you're Scott Boras

Another point oatmeal doesn’t mention is the fact gase had same agent and he was fired. 

[Beerfish]

He came out and admitted he made mistakes last year.

My level of trust goes u for guys who admit mistakes and try and learn from them while still doing some good things.

He needs to have a really good draft this year and get much more out of last years draft. 

In the end GMs are judged on their draft record.

[kevinc855]

I mean he drafted James Morgan! Nothing to worry about guys.....?? (nervous laughter)